Paul Martin's Business Update - September 19th

After years at the front of the pack, a new economic forecast from RBC Royal Bank is painting a somewhat gloomy picture of Saskatchewan’s outlook for the rest of this year and next.

The bank’s quarterly assessment of economic conditions in each province has Saskatchewan standing in third place this year – behind the other oil producers of Alberta and Newfoundland - and then one more spot next year.

At the heart of the downgrade is potash. The bank notes that this year’s grain crop is looking exceptional and oil prices are at historic highs are positive factors. But uncertainty over the future of potash production provides a question mark. So, just to be sure, they cut their expectation on potash output in half.

They acknowledge it is a guess since the Canadian potash industry has not indicated how it will react to the comment that the future of the Russian potash marketing agency is doubt. In other words, they are taking their best guess…so we could be in for a slower period of growth or, if they have it wrong, the opposite.

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