Thucydides Trap in the Year of the Rooster. Gregory Copley, Defense & Foreign Affairs.

Jan 27, 2017, 12:00 AM

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Thucydides Trap in the Year of the Rooster. Gregory Copley, Defense & Foreign Affairs.

Given that we are now in the midst of profound, longer-term cycles, what is a snapshot of the broad patterns moving into 2017? 1. Economic: A year is a short time in economic history, and what is occurring in 2017 is the result of factors which have been years in the making, but to some degree culmi-nating or punctuated by the United Kingdom’s Brexit vote of June 23, 2016, and the January 20, 2017, start of the Donald Trump Administration in the United States. But what will be evident in 2017 is: (a) A gradual consolidating upward momentum in the economies of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia; (b) A continued leavening (with some modest headline growth) of the economies of the People’s Republic of China (a 6.7 percent GDP growth in 2016, which may be insufficient), Japan, Germany, the Republic of Ko-rea, India, Indonesia, Australia, Egypt, and Israel. Modest economic growth (even the PRC’s 6.7 percent) may be insufficient to address social and structural demands in some societies; (c) Continued erratic trends, and underlying decline in most European Un-ion states, and much of Latin and South America, although with a modest return to positive territory in, for example, Argentina and Brazil, as well as in Iran; and (d) Continued economic decline in most sub-Saharan states, as well as Turkey….”