Democratic ACA agitprop to undermine AHCA success. Charles Blahous @HooverInst @Mercatus

Jun 28, 2017, 12:00 AM

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Democratic ACA agitprop to undermine AHCA success. Charles Blahous @HooverInst @Mercatus

The large projected expenditure reduction under the AHCA (the House’s repeal-and-replace bill) actually has nothing to do with disabled or elderly Medicaid beneficiaries but rather with changes in projected enrollment for the ACA’s expansion population. Doug Badger estimated in a recent paper that 82% of the Medicaid savings projected for the AHCA by CBO arose from changes to projected enrollment patterns – not from anything that would undermine care for the person profiled in the Times op-ed. The story is likely to be quite similar under the recently-unveiled Senate bill. The Chief CMS Actuary recently weighed in with its own estimate of 10-year cost savings of $383 billion over ten years from the House bill’s Medicaid provisions – less than half the savings projected by CBO. A primary difference between the two estimates has to do with what CMS and CBO respectively believe would happen if the ACA remained on the books. CMS projects that under a continuation of the ACA, the proportion of the potentially newly-Medicaid-eligible population living in Medicaid-expansion states would remain at its current 55 percent. CBO by contrast assumes that additional states would expand Medicaid if the ACA remained law. CBO further assumes that many fewer people will participate in Medicaid if the ACA is repealed, even if they remain fully eligible to do so. The bottom line is that the essential difference between these two assumptions has nothing to do with people now on Medicaid losing their access to coverage

https://economics21.org/html/medicaid-scare-tactics-are-irresponsible-2413.html