Catalonia is Brexit is Frexit is Scotland is Trump. Gregory Copley, Defense & Foreign Affairs.

Oct 14, 2017, 03:53 AM

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Catalonia is Brexit is Frexit is Scotland is Trump. Gregory Copley, Defense & Foreign Affairs.

Inclusion, Exclusion, Seclusion?

The mounting hysteria over secessionist and sovereignty movements — whether in Catalonia, Scotland, Kurdistan, Turkey, West Papua, or Oromia — should cause political leaders to reflect on the causes of national schisms rather than merely to attempt to suppress them.

Analysis. By Gregory R. Copley, Editor, GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs. Catalonia’s overwhelming referendum endorsement on October 1, 2017, of independence1 for itself as a state — and Madrid’s incompetent, legalistic, and incendiary response to the event — exemplified the driver of the current global phenomenon of societal schism. It can be summarized in two words: Inclusion or Exclusion.

The third, unspoken option is seclusion. But that — perhaps a development of unre-solved exclusion — is not a path which ensures long- term survival or vibrancy of a so-ciety.

The great question of “inclusion or exclusion” is the ancient driver within society; it is at the soul of demography, unrecognized by statisticians who focus primarily on numbers (although these, too, are telling). It is, in fact, the essence of the current great divide be-tween the “urban globalists” and the “nationalists”. But, when reduced to basics, the survival of a society depends on whether it actually evolves as a society which remains unified by common interests.

With changes in demography — numbers of humans within a society, where they move, and how they change in their nature and logic in different environments — so there are changes in national requirements, national unity, national capability. And if unity frac-tures as a result of these demographic shifts and the resultant changes in identity, then it is logical that the future of nation-states comes into question.

The Catalonian separatist issue, however badly handled on both sides of the argument, is just one current reflection of how urbanization has moved power into the national cap-itals, which then dictate all policy, all political and social orthodoxy, leaving those out-Extracts from Defense & Foreign Affairs Special Analysis 2 October 6, 2017 GIS Confidential © 2017 Global Information System, ISSA

side the power centers feeling robbed of control over their own lives, destinies, and cul-tures.

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Can the United Kingdom repair itself? Can Spain?8

The United Kingdom began to address Scottish grievances by the re- establishment of the Scottish Parliament on May 12, 1999, and then by allowing a referendum on Scot-tish secession from the United Kingdom on September 18, 2014. Westminster (that is, the United Kingdom Parliament) had responded to Scottish dissatisfaction by allowing freedom of political expression. London — that is the public and the commercial sector — however, has done less to restore the balance between England and Scotland. And that cannot go unredressed, for memories of the time when Glasgow, for example, was “the second city of the Empire”, are within living memory. But barely.

Canada partially redressed the issue of Quebecois dissatisfaction (and the demand for secession) during the 1980-95 period by also allowing referenda, and legislating the use of French as a national language across Canada. That partially addressed the issue, but only at the cost of imposing considerabl...