@AlanTonelson: Fear of Chinese retaliations; but few US-based manufacturers are in the Walmart supply chain; they were squeezed out long ago. Pres Trump must explain to Americans that this is part of national security, is unavoidable and essential.

Dec 04, 04:51 AM

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Alan Tonelson, independent consultant who blogs at RealityChek (@AlanTonelson), in re: How do US mfrs hear “truce” between the US and China? Two groups: multinational manufacturers, who've invested heavily in the Chinese mkt, and whose US operations depend on importing cheap Chinese parts. The second is purely domestic mfrs, make money supplying the multinationals and in the last several decades have been squeezed out by China’s cheap goods. The big mfrs are so afraid of Chines retaliations. Disruption of their Chinese operations and global supply chains, and their profits would take something of a hit. Also, global supply chains are intrinsically flexible; these companies have a lot of experience moving from country to country and will land on their feet. Take Walmart: in the next 60 days, it’ll make 90% of its purchasing commitments for 2019. This coincides with the 90-day “truce.” There are few US-based mfrs in the Walmart supply chain; they were squeezed out long ago. A shame. That’s why Pres Trump needs to do a better job explaining to the American voter that this is part of national security, is unavoidable and essential. The multinationals, along with the big-box retails, will stoke fear; but the US holds so many of the cards over China – when all is said and done, the US doesn’t export much; therefore, the scale of the economic hit will be relatively modest. Trump needs to go down this road sooner, before the 2020 campaign begins. Odd; in the Cold War, mfrs understood this? Big difference – the US had invested hardly anything in the USSR.