Rise of Bojo and the No-Deal Hard-Brexit. 2 of 2: Gregory Copley Defense & Foreign Affairs.

Jul 19, 2019, 12:00 AM
Photo: 1923 Strand Magazine illustration by A. Wallis Mills for the short story "Jeeves Takes Charge" by P. G. Wodehouse, featuring the characters Florence Craye, Sir Willoughby, and Bertie Wooster.
Date | April 1923
Source | The Strand Magazine, in London
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Rise of Bojo and the No-Deal Hard-Brexit. 2 of 2: Gregory Copley Defense & Foreign Affairs.

Meanwhile, the battle for the leadership of the UK’s governing Conservative Party has highlighted only short-term threats from the proposed UK withdrawal from the European Union (Brexit). Those opposing Brexit allege the prospects of massive economic disruption — without supporting evidence — and ignore the reality of a flat to declining European Union (EU) economic prospect which could offer a far worse longer-term strategic outlook for the UK.  

The UK survived two world wars and the Cold War in the 20th Century, but the “remain” proponents argue that getting out of the EU could be something the UK would not easily survive. The result, however, is that, if former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson was to win the leadership contest and emerges as UK Prime Minister, then a “hard” or “no deal” Brexit was probable, and would give the UK its best opportunity to rebuild its strategic viability. 

What is already evident is the reality that the UK has begun planning for greater national efforts in the development of defense industry and technology in the post-Brexit environment, bearing in mind the considerable, positive impact which UK defense and aerospace technology has had on the UK’s economic and technological base over recent decades. The UK defense sector has already also begun to resurge in the marketplace with its new Type 26 frigate program, with export orders from Canada and Australia.

The major hurdle now facing the incoming Prime Minister is the reality that Parliament has voted that the UK could not exit from the EU without a “deal”, and yet the same Parliament has thrice rejected the only “deal” which the EU would accept. And there was insufficient remaining time for a new “deal” to be negotiated between London and Brussels. It would be difficult for the incoming Prime Minister to allow the UK to terminate its EU membership without prior ratification from Parliament, and yet the clock could just run out, if the Prime Minister can prevent a new parliamentary vote, providing a de factowithdrawal on October 31, 2019.