Blain's Financial Porridge Sept 6th 2019

Sep 06, 11:44 AM

Bill Blain is a leading global market strategist. You can find his daily commentary, The Morning Porridge on

Bill Blain talks through the current markets. First up this week is Brexit - the increasingly beleaguered prime minister Boris Johnson looks trapped in a No No-deal/cant call an election quandry! How will he wriggle his way out? Can he? Or is the central character in some Shakespearian tragedy?
Meanwhile, global bond yields have never been so low. Most of the global bond markets yield less than zero, and many analysts think they will go lower. Could the massive $115 trillion market already have passed "Peak Bond"? And what would a crash, a rise in rates and rising defaults do the markets? Bill reckons Bond markets will be the root of the next financial crisis.  
China is front and centre this week. Although markets are still betting on trade war resolution, it looks increasingly unlikely. More likely is increased polarisation between East and West. Trump and the West want completely different things than China. The two are unlikely to meet. Expect China to become increasingly cut off and put in a cold war box. That has massive long-term implications for global growth. 
Finally we look at We Work's IPO - likely to confirm the end of the era of irrational exhuberence in Tech Stocks. The valuation has been slashed from $47 bln to $20 bln leaving early investors embarrassed. There are still many questions about its business model, its profitability and leadership.