Bill Blain is an experienced market commentator with 35years in the markets behind him. His daily market comments can be found on www.morningporridge.com. He also does daily Porridge Lite-bites for his firm, Shard Capital, which can be found on the site.
In this edition of the Financial Porridge Podcast, veteran Market Commentator Bill Blain examines critical market themes driving markets.
Although he’s written about markets for a large part of his 35 year market career, seldom has one man been so much in the frame. While Barak Obama attracted occasional comment, Donald Trump’s interventions on tax, trade wars, climate change and everything else confirm he is the great disruptor.
Much of the globe seems desperately unhappy these days. Demonstrations in Hong Kong. Riots in Chile. Polarisation and dismal politics in the UK. Impeachment in the US. Everyone is miserable. Why? Increased income inequality is one reason – and its due to bad central bank and political policies pushing too much money into the hands of the rich in terms of financial asset inflation, while the rest of the poor people suffer from Austerity. It’s a recipe for populism if not outright revolution. Its driving markets.
But its not all bad news. Climate Change is seen as massive threat by existing industry and its lobbyists. It should not be. Its an opportunity to create new growth, raise incomes, stabilise society and drive sustainable growth in a cleaner environment through new renewable and climate cure technologies. Although scientists say its happening, there are still deniers. Its time to ask why. Climate Change does not need to remain a threat – it should be seen as a challenging opportunity.
Unless a new smoking gun emerges Donald Trump will likely survive impeachment. US republican senators would have to vote against him, and they don’t want to risk being seen supporting a Democrat plot. It will be left to the US electorate to opine on his guilt or otherwise in Nov 2020. Its an election for him to lose – can the Democrats put up a credible candidate and opposition?
Trump’s trade wars are being blamed for global slowdown – but its due to changing economies. China was the great growth driver as it dramatically expanded for 30 years. Now it is slowing as it focuses on domestic consumption. That slows everyone else. Its also about tech change – and its not just petrol being replaced by Electric. The changing global economy will be lower for longer.