[Music]
Welcome everyone to the Selling
Greenville podcast I am your host Stan McCune
realtor here in Greenville South
Carolina and we are just here
living the quarantine life you know it's
it's a great life we got a lot of
yard work done over this past weekend
the weather was really nice for a change
of course it went straight back to
rainy but I think I think we are
almost out of the woods in terms of the
rain so unfortunately we're going to
have to stay inside a good bit while we
have some really nice weather but you
know we'll probably be going outside a
little bit and trying to enjoy the nice
weather as much as possible while we
socially distance ourselves from from
all the people that could potenti be
spreading dangerous viruses everywhere
so be responsible while you're
outside but also we're about to enter a
season where we have some of the nicest
weather in the area so I hope we're all
able to enjoy a little bit of time
outside but in the meantime as we
listen to this podcast I would
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keeping this podcast going and making it
relevant for other people that might be
interested in it now we've gotten P
that if you need to contact me by the
way you can find all of my contact
information in the show notes got my
email address got my phone number I mean
you can text me you can call me I'm
no celebrity I'm just a realtor so
listen if if we've never spoken before
feel free to reach out to me I'd be more
than happy to communicate with you but
today we are going to be kind of
pivoting away from Corona virus
covid-19 related
podcast but staying in kind of that same
vein because I'm getting a lot of
questions right now what what is going
to happen what what's the market going
to do how do I play this the right way
how do I play it safe do I time the
market or attempt to time the market I'm
getting tons tons of questions from from
people who are looking at buying or
looking at selling or are considering it
there's a lot of anxiety right now
and so today we're going to be kind of
looking back at
2008 what are the lessons that we
learned in 2008 right when the great
what became known as the Great Recession
happened what are some of the lessons
that we learned back then on how to
survive a recession we're going into a
recession I think that is pretty much
guaranteed at this point it's more the
the question that we have is how long is
it going to last is this going to be you
know just a few months we get the
virus under control and then our economy
rebounds or is this going to be the kind
of thing where there is a domino effect
and things really really get bad before
they get better we've talked about that
in other podcast so I'm not going to get
into all all of that speculation let's
just be practical here how do we weather
the storm how do we play it safe when we
are in a recessive type of economic
environment now let me start by saying
this you might not want to play it safe
during the recession playing it safe is
not always the way to go because
sometimes people that that think they're
playing it safe are actually selling low
and buying High what I mean by that is
what's the worst time to sell your
your stocks right now if you're if
you're a shareholder and some different
companies what's the worst time to sell
I mean probably right now unless of
course the whatever company is that
you own stock in if that company is
at risk of of
completely going under and you losing
all that money well then of course you
want to consider selling but for a lot
of really stable companies you know like
the Amazon and the apples of the
world I honestly I would I'm no
investment expert okay let let me just
get that out of the way in fact I've
gotten a few people asking me questions
about what should I do with my stocks
listen I don't know what what you should
do with your stocks but I'm just
speaking in general terms you generally
want to hold on to when when the market
gets bad you don't want to sell when
things are bad that's the worst thing
that you can do well a lot of people
think that that is the safe thing to do
and as it comes as it pertains to real
estate they'll start liquidating
properties when they're scared that a
recession is going to happen or they'll
try to sell their house when they're
afraid a recession is going to happen
don't react in that way if you got to
sell your house you got to sell your
house right it it doesn't really matter
whether a recession is is here or is
coming etc
etc but don't respond to the market
changing by by panicking and saying oh
my gosh I got to sell everything
that's oftentimes the worst response
okay so we're just gonna kind of get
that out of the way that wasn't one
of my 10 lessons from 2008 but that's
just something to
consider there's not always virtue in
mitigating risk in a recession
and sometimes the way people Define
mitigating risk is
actually is is actually causing them
to sell low and to buy high and that is
the worst thing you can do that's
actually the most risky thing that you
can do so just keep that in mind don't
be so conservative that you end up doing
the thing that you're trying to avoid
with all that in mind
I do have 10 lessons here that I want to
discuss as far as how to survive a
recession now a little bit of quick
background I entered the workforce in
2008 that was when I graduated college
great time to enter the workforce right
two years later I started looking for
a house so I I have a lot of real life
experience in a recession type of
environment and I have spent a lot of
time going back and actually studying
what happened back then in the real
estate market so I'm I'm certainly not
the the foremost expert on this but I
have both real life experience I have
both book knowledge of what happened
I've looked I've studied the statistics
the averages everything what the market
did it's it's a very interesting and
a very
fascinating tale of of what happened
when you go back and look at everything
and put all the pieces together now that
we have it all that we can go back
and look at in
hindsight but the number one thing that
I
think you need to do okay and this goes
for anyone with regardless of what
you're trying to do if you're investing
if you're looking to buy or sell for
yourself to as a primary
residence the number one lesson from
2008 that applies to us today is you
need to have multiple exit strategies
and we've talked about this on the
podcast before but I want to flesh this
out a little bit more multiple exit
strategies what does that mean well let
me try to explain to you what that might
mean let's say that you buy a property
that let's let's use an investment
strategy you buy a property that you
intend to flip okay so your your into
flipping houses there's a property that
you find out on Market off Market you're
able to buy and you feel like you're
buying it for a a good deal and you feel
like there's enough equity there that
you can take that
property and then sell that after you've
done some renovations to it sell it make
a profit okay great what happens if you
can't do that what happens if the
economy completely crashes and nobody
wants to buy that house what happens if
your contractor runs out of money and
ends up having to go out of business you
end up finding yourself only being
able to find contractors that cost more
money and now your profit margin goes
away you need to be prepared for the
worst case scenario for something like
that so having multiple exit strategies
might look like this maybe your that
property
you can take and turn that into a rental
property and you're able to cash flow it
and you're not going to financially
strain Yourself by holding on to that
property long term and keeping it as a
rental maybe that's a good option for
you maybe another option is maybe you're
buying it with enough equity that you
can just do what they call whet tailing
which is I'm I'm not going to get
into a ton of specifics on this but
there there's an area of real estate
called wholesale real estate and simply
listing your home on the market with
a realtor that would be considered like
retail typically a home that is in good
shape you're just listing on the market
trying to sell it for market prices that
would be retailing so in between these
two strategies is wholetail and whol
tailing is basically you take a property
that's not in good shape but you list it
on the open market for a discount and
you have someone come in
hopefully usually an investor that buys
that property at that discounted price
and then they do the work maybe they
want to try to flip it or maybe they
want to keep it as a rental property who
knows so maybe that's one of your
option maybe you start with that you try
to wholetail at first whet tailing
doesn't work okay now I'm going to try
to flip the property all right let's see
if I can if I can flip it oh my
contractor just bailed on me for
whatever reason all right
I'm just going to do a few basic
fixes and then I'm going to rent it out
no problem I've rented it out my rent
covers my mortgage my taxes my insurance
all of that and and I'm okay with
having forfeited out the money in the in
the short term that I spent buying that
property all is good we're not going to
have any issues that's an example of
having multiple exit strategies you can
go in multiple directions of one one
plan fails then another plan will work
what's a bad idea in in using that
example is if you have all your eggs in
the house flipping basket and now for
whatever reason you can't turn around
and sell that house and you've got all
your money tied up in it and you need
that money now you're in trouble what
you're going to find yourself doing is
you're going to find yourself
probably selling that house at a loss or
you're going to find find yourself in
some major financial trouble you do not
want that to happen similarly when
you're just purchasing as a as a
primary residence there are some some
similar things that you run into there
an example of some sometimes it's
easiest to contrast what an example of
not doing this is before we get into
examples of what doing it would be so an
example of not having multiple exit
strategies is let's say that you're like
you know what I want to bigger home I'm
not sure if we're going to be in
Greenville for for much longer but I'm
sure that if we buy this home and then
you know need to move in a year or two
we should be we should be fine it
should have appreciated value by that
point and we should be able to sell
that's not having multiple exit
strategies because you're putting all
your eggs in the appreciation basket and
you're assuming that your house will
appreciate and that if you run into a
situation where you need to move that
all will be good you won't have any
issues you'll be able to sell it you'll
be able to at the very least break even
and make a little bit of money or
whatever it may be and then you can then
you can sell that's that's not a good
way of approaching it you want to have
maximflexibility you want to be able
to say if it's a prime residence you're
looking at buying for instance okay I
can buy this
house and in the worst case scenario I
can just live it live here for several
years right that's the worst case
scenario in the worst case scenario it's
like okay even if I lose my job the the
mortgage that I have to pay is not that
bad that's an example of thinking
from a multiple exit strategies point of
view and that is the most most important
thing that you can do do not limit
yourself with your buying or selling
there are still a lot of opportunities
out there and and usually when we're
going into recess a recession that's
when the best opportunities are out
there but you want to make sure that you
don't in in an attempt to take advantage
of the opportunities cause more stress
on on yourself on your budget end up
causing yourself to to be restricted
and limited to only being able to do one
thing or another you want to have as
many options as possible at your
disposal that was the first lesson that
that one we took the most amount of time
on hopefully some of these will be a lot
quicker but that one is the most
important so we spent a lot of time on
that all right lesson number two from
2008 is don't stretch your budget this
is what so many people did right they
said okay I'm pre-approved for
$250 sorry
$250,000 okay let me see all the
$250,000 properties that are out there
listen maybe what you need you have
to go to that Max part of your budget
but for most people that's going to be a
problem if the economy continues to
tighten up because a lot of people are
going to lose their jobs a lot of people
are going to suffer pay cuts if this
ends up being a long-term thing we've
already had a large percentage of the
economy of the workforce start to have
pay cuts and be laid
off don't aim for the very top of your
budget if you can find a way to go
beneath the top of your budget
absolutely do that and sometimes the
best way to do that is to find fixer
upper properties and there are loans
out there renovation loans that allow
you to purchase those fixed or upper
proper properties and basically Finance
the cost of the repairs into the loan
now there are some challenges with those
they're not the easiest to get to the
closing table but I've got a lot of
experience with them that was how I
bought my first house I can I can help
you work through that if need
be the third lesson that we learned
from 2008 and this one is is really
specific to
2008 and and I but I think it applies
today as well and to future recessions
is that you want to stay away from
densely urban areas but you want to
understand that when the market does
bottom out th those areas are where the
best opportunities lie all right so
here's what I mean by that in Greenville
we don't have a lot of like densely
urban areas but obviously Downtown
Greenville some some little
neighborhoods around downtown Greenville
are examples of that
those are the areas that are going to be
hit the hardest when the next recession
like really hits us whether it's this or
whether it's another one in the future
those are the areas that typically get
hit the hardest because they're being
inflated by a lot of different things
for instance Downtown Greenville has a
really awesome Main Street well guess
what that Main Street doesn't look very
awesome right now we're in a granted
a bit of an unprecedented situ situation
here but in 2008 a lot of the
storefronts were empty we had people
that you know businesses that ended
up going bankrupt that they ended up
having to to move out the commercial
real estate industry was hit really hard
back then and part of that was that
it was hard to to fill these some of
these
storefronts and so some of the appeal a
lot of the appeal for for these more
urban regions for these for the city
centers the downtown areas a lot of the
appeal of those areas kind of gets hurt
and and doesn't completely go away but
goes away a decent bit when when they
get hit by a recession and so those are
not the areas that you really want to be
targeting if you're trying to mitigate
risk in the short term now like I said
the market Market bottoms
out and there might be some really
unbelievable deals in Greenville in the
West End of Greenville there might be
some deals that we haven't seen in 10
years you just need to realize that
those areas might not recover as
quickly as the other areas around
Greenville it might not be a okay you
know after one or two years following
you know the worst part of the recession
everything is is basically recovered
that's probably not going to happen
downtown but once it does recover it'll
start recovering on a different scale
than everything else and so if you can
wait five six seven years again have
having multiple exit strategies multiple
ways you can go that you're not just
hemmed in okay I've got to I've got to
be able to move on this property in two
to three years potentially
if you have that flexibility there will
be some
opportunities but if you're wanting to
play it cautious stay away from from the
dense the more dense Urban downtown
areas number four multif Family
Properties okay and I've got a lot of
clients interested in multif
family they're going to be in a
recession type of of economic
environment a lot of great great deals
on multif Family Properties and that's
because they get hit really hard in a
recession and so that can mean a few
different things one of those is that
you don't want to be selling your multif
family property during a recession for
the most part hold on to those
properties keep
them take advantage of other parts of
the
market those are in a lot
less demand they have a lot less demand
than single family homes do during a
recession they got hit multif family
in 2008 to 2010 got hit extremely hard
just kind of kept kept seeing their
value go down and down and down there's
a a lot of different reasons for that
but you need to just keep in keep
that in the back of your mind if you're
potential
multif family buyer like a duplex
Triplex quadriplex those types of
properties understand again that those
are the ones that get hit the hardest so
those there are great opportunities to
buy not a lot of opportunities to sell
make sure you don't put yourself in a
bind where you need to sell one and
can't number five be careful with
selecting your Builder one of the big
things that happened that took a lot of
people by surprise between 2008 and 2010
was how many
Builders ended up just kind of going
under and just disappearing we had a a
lot of them in this area go under both
the big production Builders and the
smaller Builders and so if you're
planning to do new
construction even if it's a if it's a
big-time production Builder understand
there is a risk of them going under and
if they go under there that just causes
a lot of complications for you you need
to just keep that in mind like that's
not that doesn't necessarily mean avoid
new construction but just understand for
instance here's what could happen you
could say you're you're buying into a
neighborhood that's being production
built by a big
Builder you get your home built great
they're in Phase One or phase two of
development they're planning to do three
phases of of development in the
neighborhood by the time they get done
with phase two they're out of money and
they're broke and they go under and now
you've got a big part of your
neighborhood that's not
complete and you have an entire phase of
construction that needs to be done and
it's not going to be done by that
Builder it's impossible for that Builder
to do it they are now no longer building
they are out of
business you end up you might end up in
a situation where where your house or
where your neighborhood just has an
entire part of the neighborhood that is
undeveloped more likely at some point
you're going to have another Builder
come along and then they start
construction you might not like what
that Builder does there are all kinds of
things that can happen and it's
similarly and and honestly more likely
if it's a smaller Builder just a you
know a local Builder that has a small
crew they are really likely to get
impacted negatively in the midst of a
recession and that's really bad you get
a small local Builder trying to build
your house and he only builds you know
maybe a dozen homes a year or however it
might be he does that's not like he's
not one of these Builders that's
building hundreds of of homes a year
it's going to be really bad if that
Builder goes under and and it's going to
start with that their customer service
plummets and that things start going
poorly that their subs start doing a
really bad job that they don't show up
when they're supposed to be there and
then it's just going to bottom out from
there so be careful selecting your
Builder number
six and the way I worded this might
sound a little bit funny but assume the
worst of your HOA if you're moving into
a community has an HOA assume the worst
it's not a bad idea to ask for their
books to see how are they doing
financially now that's not the end all
Beall but if if we're talking about a
community that has an expensive
HOA and then you come in there and you
look at their books and it turns out oh
man not only are we having to pay 180
200 a month for this HOA which in this
area is
expensive but they don't have hardly any
money in their cash reserves their pool
needs to be resurfaced really quickly
you're looking at the potential for your
HOA fees to have to to start going way
up you're looking at the possibility
of needing special assessments where
you're having to pay in addition to your
normal HOA you want to be careful when
you're going into a recession that you
that you minimize the possibility for
unexpected costs and HOA is one of those
organizations that can create extra
costs that you don't want and an HOA
that's not doing well financially or not
doing well in other ways can be a a
really big problem in this type of
environment because here's what happens
right why specifically a recession
that's always a problem well
specifically in a recession is people
stop paying their HOA dues and then the
HOA ends up running into a situation
where they don't have a whole lot of
money and then they start getting into
financial problems they don't have the
cash reserves to pay it one thing leads
to
another you end up in in in a in a bad
situation so keep that in mind assume
the worst of your
HOA try to get as much data as possible
about an HOA understand that's not again
that's not the end all Beall I I I think
it's more this is more true of
communities that have expensive HOAs
like HOAs in excess of $100 a month
but in those instances you want to make
sure that you have as much information
as possible so that you don't end up
footing the bill for other people in the
community who end up not being able to
pay lesson number seven don't be
afraid of going to the condo or
townhouse route condos and Tow houses
between 2008 and
2010 did pretty well overall they
they were very stable in terms of their
value and and that has continued to this
day from 2010 2020 they tend to not go
up way in value in this area and they
tend not to go down way in value in this
area now I'm talking in Broad terms
obviously those really expensive condos
Town Hall in Downtown Greenville I would
be cautious with those because there's
tons of those being built but in
general those you know 1502 200 $250,000
town homes and condos those are most
likely going to stay pretty similar in
value over the next few years so it's a
lowrisk also low reward type of purchase
if you're like you know what I'm okay
doing this for a few years and I'm also
okay with this not really appreciating
in value a whole lot as long as I'm
guaranteed it won't go down in value a
whole lot going the condo or
townhouse route might be a good option
for you it depends on on the community
it depends on a lot of other factors but
a lot of people don't realize that in
General on an on an average that they
stayed pretty stable during the worst in
in terms of their value during the worst
part of the recession 2008 in this area
so just keep that in mind that was
number seven number
eight beware of being the largest home
in the neighborhood
beware if if you're buying a home maybe
not the absolute largest but one of the
largest in the neighborhood be careful
with that strategy and here's why here's
what we see you go into a neighborhood
that has homes that range from 15 00 s
ft to 3,000 square ft what ends up
happening all the time is the smaller
homes keep the value down on the bigger
homes why well because in that
neighborhood probably the average home
is smaller and so what ends up happening
is those smaller homes might sell for
$150 a square foot and those homes that
are that are the largest in that
neighborhood are going to end up selling
for a lot less than that because nobody
wants to buy a home for
$450,000 in a neighborhood that has home
selling in the 200,000 like that you
know that doesn't even make a whole lot
of sense when you just look at it from
the surface so you need to understand
that a lot of buyers aren't going to be
considering the other factors they're
just going to look at this neighborhood
say oh man there are some people just
one street over that sold their house
recently for 225 and this guy has his
house listed for for
450 and they're not even looking at the
fact that it's double the square footage
so it makes sense what that it would be
double the price all they're looking at
is those numbers and I can assure you
that house that is
450 they're not going to get anywhere
near that they're going to get in
below 400 they're going to end up in
the 300s because we don't see that type
of
disparity and it it you're taking on
some substantial risk if you're buying
one of the largest homes in a
neighborhood number nine beware of
neighborhoods that are already
struggling let me tell you you can you
can go into a neighborhood right away
and see if it's struggling you see
siding falling off the side of the house
you see roofs that are clearly
Beyond the point of needing to be
replaced you see cars that that are just
old and and you know clearly they also
need to be replaced there's a lot of
things that you can do when you go into
a neighborhood to see if it's struggling
or not you see Lawns that need to be
mowed that are like way past the point
of needing to be mowed you see windows
that are broken like all of these things
are little signs that a neighborhood is
struggling and if it's struggling now
when things have been really really good
up until just
recently imagine what's going to happen
if we go into a major recession like a
bunch of those people they're going to
foreclose that neighborhood is going to
plummet in value you're going to see a
major problem in terms of of your
home appreciating value it's probably
not going to it's probably going going
to end up going down in value because
all of your neighbors are bringing your
home down in value no matter what you
end up doing to it so look not just at
the home not just at the comps look at
the neighbors particularly on the street
that that home is on but look in the
community as a whole how is this
community doing did these people buy
Above their means and now they're having
to cut corners on their lawn by by
having an old expired roof etc etc or is
it clear that that there's pride in own
in home ownership in this community
everyone is able to afford what they
need to afford to to keep up with their
homes to keep up with the community this
community is doing well that has a huge
impact on you and your home
value last but not least number 10 here
Target neighborhoods that aren't sexy
but have desirability for other reasons
okay and what I mean by aren't
sexy neighborhoods that maybe you
haven't really heard of or that they
don't have the the prettiest homes the
the the greatest curb appeal of of
anywhere in the upstate but they
are they have other reasons why you
should be interested in them all right
so what are some of those other reasons
that you might be interested in them
well one would be good Grocery
Stores that's kind of an underrated
way to assess an area grocery stores
know the direction that they know the
the direction of the economy in that
area they know the direction that the
population in that area is going and
listen I'm not going to get into what
are the good grocery stores what are not
the good grocery stores you know
a grocery store that has more upscale
type of items that focuses more on
clients that are willing to pay more
money those grocery stores tend to be in
areas that are going to do better so if
you don't know a whole lot about how to
assess a
market look at the grocery stores look
at the school districts okay homes that
are in good school districts are going
to do well overall even when the a
recession hits they're still they still
have other reasons why people want to go
there there's still going to be appe
peel and and this is part of why
downtown areas tend to get hit is
because they tend to not have
oftentimes are not in very good school
districts because they have
appeal and in other ways people are not
moving Downtown Greenville typically
because of the schools
well when a recession hits all of
those other areas and reasons that
people are moving there kind of go by
the wayside and now you have families
looking to move and it's like okay where
are the good school districts where are
the good areas those tend to do better
in a recession those are are the
neighborhoods that you want to Target
look for neighborhoods that have
established homeowners not just a bunch
of you know I don't I don't want to
stereotype I got to be careful with
what I say but you know a bunch of
people that have just joined the
workforce and that don't have a lot of
money saved up and they and you can tell
that they bought at the very top end of
their budget we've already kind of
discussed this a little bit those
neighborhoods are are at risk you get a
neighborhood that has people that have
been in the workforce for a long time
that have stable jobs that they're not
going to get laid
off that they've lived in these homes
for six seven 8 nine years those are the
neighborhoods that are going to weather
the storm you get neighborhoods that
have a ton of turnover where people are
are moving every one two three years
those neighborhoods aren't going to do
as well in the recession and sometimes
it can be tricky to to to figure all of
that out obviously you don't want to
just stereotype based on the people that
you meet in the neighborhood look at the
data look at at how often these homes
are turning over how frequently they go
for sale what percentage of the homes in
the neighborhood go to sale there's a
lot of information you can get that's
just raw data that doesn't require any
stereotyping another example would be
a home that doesn't have a ton of new
construction and again the new
construction neighborhoods those are the
sexy ones you know they're introducing
all all of these different types of
Technology smart thermostats all this
kind of stuff those neighborhoods are
going to get hit the hardest the ones
that are established that were built 40
50 years ago those are going to be the
ones that typically weather the storm
the best because they already have the
infrastructure there's not a bunch of
new construction going up there you
don't want to be in an area in a
neighborhood
where there's all kinds of new
construction going up because what
happens you're going to have a bunch of
homes that have just been built that
nobody is able to afford now and so you
go to an area where everything has
already been built right like an
Eastside Greenville type of area there's
not a lot of new construction East Side
Greenville that's that's great now
you know that there's not going to be a
situation where the market
starts getting flooded with homes
that nobody can afford and so that will
help your home value overall and
another another example but I'm not
going to get too In The Weeds on this of
a type of neighborhood that that
wouldn't be sexy or a type of house that
wouldn't be
sexy
or that that would be sexy but
wouldn't have the desirability in other
ways watch out for homes that have all
kinds of these Cutting Edge features
that that might be not be in Vogue in
a few years we don't exactly know for
instance the exactly where solar is
going to go in general in the Greenville
area solar has not done very well solar
is you know there there's all kinds
of issues that people have with with
their solar panels but specifically the
the contracts that people end up signing
where they don't own the solar panels
they're just leasing the solar panels
from the solar companies and they're
having to pay both for the panels and
then also having to pay for the solar
energy that they're using those are
are lease agreements that can damage the
value of your home not to mention that
then when you change your roof you've
got to factor in the solar panels as an
additional expense there's all kinds of
different things some companies out
there that aren't good with installing
them have caused roof issues so don't
just jump on on the sexiest Trend
again sometimes in when we're going into
an uncertain economic environment the
best thing you can do is just go with
tried and true here is a brick ranch
with a newer roof nothing sexy about it
in a neighborhood in an area that
doesn't have a lot of new constru
construction going up because there's
not no longer any room for any new
construction great grocery stores
good school district that's the
neighborhood you want to Target that has
the least amount of risk and that's it
those are the 10 lessons the top 10
lessons from 2008 on how to weather the
storm how to survive a recession how to
mitigate your
risks don't mitigate all of your risks
because if in a recession the best real
estate deals are what come on the market
and we've been waiting for a long time
for the market to shift more in the
buyer's Direction so let's not throw up
our hands and get discouraged if that
happens but we need to be cautious and
we need to be careful we need to some of
these 10 things apply to some people
more than to others and so keep them all
in mind consider your situation where
you are financially and and make good
decisions from there and so with that
that's a wrap again my contact
information in the show notes please
reach out to me if you need a realtor if
you have questions about real estate
that's why I'm here and we'll see you
next time
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