Welcome everyone once again to the
Selling greenball podcast I'm your host
Stan McCune realtor right here in
Greenville South Carolina and just as a
reminder you can find all of my contact
information in the show notes email
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super duper happy today's episode is
about what the market is doing what
shifts are we seeing
now that we have some more extreme
social distancing taking place the
governor of South Carolina governor
McMasters he issued I believe it was on
Sunday an an order that was his
strongest to date about us needing to
stay at home that actually didn't really
apply to real estate hardly at all I
mean we still have to at showings and
whatnot keep a six foot distance there's
not supposed to more than three people
in a house at once but overall we can
still show houses we can still list
houses pretty much everything related to
real estate is still considered an
essential business and so the market
has not been disrupted as much here as
it has been in some other places when it
comes to real estate but what does the
data say you know it's one thing to say
well my gut feeling is that the market
hasn't really been disrupted that much
but what does the data say I decided to
analyze this to look in the MLS and to
see what the MLS has to say for us about
what has happened the past few weeks so
I decided let's go back to March 19th
that was when things around the time
that things really started clamping down
people started wearing masks and and
whatnot shortly thereafter and I pulled
the data from March 19th to April 8th in
2020 and then compared it to 2019 I did
the same thing from March 31st to April
8th and the reason was to see well
what's the trend okay is are things
changing the way I expect them to or or
are they not and I was actually very
surprised with what I found in this data
and that's why I'm sharing it with you
today so I started with new listings and
actually we we did all of this data on
new listings during those time periods
and they had to be properties that were
above $5,000 and and the reason why I
did that there's a lot of rental
properties out there that are a th000
2,000 whatever I didn't want to deal
with properties that are for rent in the
MLS so I just filtered them out that
way but I left all the other filters
open so this includes land mobile homes
condos
Etc between March 19th and April the 8th
of this year we had 1,3
380 new homes come on the market how
does that compare to 2019 well it that's
down about 7% in 2019 we had
1,484 properties come on the market
during that time so the the housing
market has for sure been impacted we
have fewer listings coming on the market
during that time
7% now I would expect that number to go
up as we Pro progress right because more
people are in theory going to be
hesitant to list their homes so I I ran
the data from March 31st to April the
8th and to my surprise the percentage
went down in other words a it was more
comparable to
2019 than if when I pulled the data from
March 19th to April 8th so here here's
what I got from March 31st to April the
8th 500
59 homes went on the market in
2020 how that compares to 2019 in 2019
590 homes during the that date range
came on the market so it only went down
by
5.25% whereas before from March 19th to
April the 8th it had gone down by 7% so
actually people it doesn't appear that
people are getting more hesitant about
listing their homes as time goes on
maybe the initial fear and concern that
the real estate market might crash or
that the economy might crash maybe there
is a portion of the market that was like
you know what we're going to be okay I'm
going to go ahead and list my house and
and so we haven't seen the
trend progressing in the way that that I
personally would have expected Ed to and
I think that's in general a good thing
now what about showings all right so
this is this is a really important
question because we have you know the
past several
weeks homes are listing pretty close to
about in in this area pretty close to
what they did in
2019
7% since March 19th fewer homes and what
what were listed during the same time
period in 2019 but 7% isn't that much
nationally if you look at some national
numbers they are way way higher than
that and I think that's just because in
Greenville there's a lot of reasons for
that but in Greenville we have a great
housing market here South Carolina
hasn't been as restrictive as some other
areas and so some of the numbers here
look a lot better than they do
nationally
and and in other parts of the country
but when it comes to
showings we do see a big big difference
so here is what we're looking at around
the and and unfortunately I should
mention I don't have I wasn't able to
compare the statistics from 2019 but I I
have some statistics readily available
from March 16th all the way up through
April 8th of this this year I'm sorry
from February 16th all the way up
through April 8th of this year and here
is what I found from
February from the middle of February
until you know early to mid-march it was
very consistent that we were
averaging around
like six 700 showings a day during a
normal day and then Saturday that number
goes up into around the 1,00 showings
per day range this is just Market wide
and and these this data is
provided by showing time which is a
service that a very very large
percentage probably like 90% I'm just
guessing but probably close to 90% of
listings use showing time to schedule
their
appointments so this dat
according to showing time we were
averaging roughly like 6 700 showings a
day Market wide and then on Saturday
that number goes up to closer to like 11
1200 something like
that the past week that number has gone
down a lot this past Saturday showing
time
641
showings so compare that to before when
it was 112 1 1200 you're talking about
like nearly a 40%
dip then the past few days Monday was
354 showings that's that's extremely low
now I should mention that's higher than
than Monday March the 23rd so again
kind of similarly it's like well you
know there there might
be some evidences that maybe people are
starting to get a little bit more
confident Monday March the 23rd was 3177
showing so it actually went up this past
Monday versus the the
23rd now it did go down from the 30th
which was
409 showings on that Monday but
regardless when we're generally
averaging 600 to 700 for it to be 354
that's not great Tuesday was 415 and
then Wednesday was
416 again all this data provided via
showing time so our showings have
gone down in General on the order of
like you know between somewhere between
like 25 and
40% so showings have gone down quite a
bit quite a bit so what does that mean
for new contracts right are are homes
just sitting on the market are they just
languishing well that's a very
interesting question as well and it's
very hard to answer and here's why
the way the MLS at least in in
Greenville the way the data is parsed it
it's really kind there are some
challenges to determining when a home
goes under contract there is a field for
contract date but that field isn't
filled in until after the home changes
to
sold so there's no way for us to fully
know what's going on with homes
currently on the market that are
under contract but haven't yet sold that
contract date probably hasn't been
filled in yet there is a workaround
though and so the the way that I did
this was I looked at and and I won't get
into all the nitty-gritty but I was
basically able to come up with what I
believe is an accurate way of looking at
it by
analyzing those new listings since March
19th and March 31st through April the
8th look at how many new
listings during that those time periods
have gone under contract both in 2020
and
2019 now I would expect the numbers to
to be pretty close to those numbers
that I just shared in terms of the
showings that we would see about a drop
off of
about you know 20 30 maybe in the worst
case scenario
40% do we see
that no no we do not see that at all now
let me hedge this by saying one thing we
do not know how many of these current
contracts are going to fall through make
a lot of money on that data if I
could somehow gain access to my crystal
ball and see the future and see oh these
contracts are going to fall through
but I'm comparing data on homes that
were sold in 2019 versus homes that are
currently under contract in 20120 some
of those might fall through and not sell
but hopefully the data is pretty able
again to explain it these are homes that
were both listed between March 19th and
April 8th and they went under contract
during the same time period in
2020 we had
466 homes so this year between March
19th and April the 8th
466 of the new listings during that time
period went under contract remember
there were 1,3
380 new listings during that time period
And so basically a third of those are
now under contract that's awesome that
is a great number for the properties
coming on the MLS in Greenville that a
third of them during one of the the
worst economic environments that we've
been through in a really really long
time have gone under contract how does
that compare to
2019 of the new of the 1,484 new in that
came on the market in 2019 from March
19th to April the 8th
383 of those went under contract during
that same time period so that's actually
a a a difference of 83 that's 83 fewer
homes than what we currently have under
contract now
again some the
466 that we have under contract some of
those will fall through but even if that
number comes down to
383 it that ends up meaning that we're
not seeing the market being impacted in
the way we expect it to we're still
seeing a lot of homes going under
contract very comparable if not even
more so than what we saw in 2019 which
is shocking what about since March 31st
that number is even more dramatic for
March 31st to April the 8th in 2019 it
was 90 homes that went under contract
among those new listings and this year
153 that have gone under contract among
the the new listings the
559 new listings since March 31st of
this year so we're seeing homes even
though showings have dropped
dramatically we are still seeing Homes
at at least the new listings are still
going under contract so people that are
scared to sell their home listen there's
a lot of things to consider when you're
considering the timing of selling a home
but at least on a meta level with the
properties being listed in the MLS they
are going under contract at a good clip
compared to
2019 we are still seeing that there is a
Market out there and what it seems is
happening is that that drop of like 30
40% in showings it seems like that's
mostly just the the buyers that aren't
that serious and so what we have left is
the showings that are happening are much
more impactful there is a much higher
percentage of these showings that are
that appear to be resulting in contracts
on on the properties that are being
shown and so we're I'm getting questions
we're getting questions you know well is
it a buyer Market is it going to switch
to a buyer
Market at the moment now this is very
likely to change in in some way but at
the moment the current trajectory where
we're having fewer homes listed but the
same amount or more homes going under
contract that means we're looking at
potentially more of a sellers market
like that it it's it's wild and I'm not
saying
that that's going to happen that it is
going to become more of a seller's
market but the current trajectory gives
no indication no indication that we are
heading into buyer Market territory that
does not appear to be the case at the
moment now the situation is so fluid
that can change very quickly but this is
what we're seeing right now and I'll
continue to update you on this podcast
as I get more information
there is still a lot of nervousness
I'm guessing that probably those people
that you know the
5.25% lower amount of of new listings
from March 31st to April the 8th this
year versus last year I'm guessing a lot
of those people are just are are nervous
for getting the virus or you know just
have other reasons other than trying to
time the market for why they're not
listing their
homes but overall the market is is
comparing to
2019 pretty well so far here in the
Greenville
area now that that 5.25% since March
31st or you know if you want to go back
to March 19th the 7% lower number of of
new listings versus
2019 those people probably still want to
sell so I'm guessing that at some point
they are going to list their homes
probably when the social distancing
stuff or the scares about the Corona
virus start to go away those homes will
probably all get listed and we might run
into a situation where we have a
temporary buyers Market or something
closer to it because all of a sudden we
have a glut of new homes come on the
market and not enough buyers to purchase
all of those homes so if you're looking
at listing your house one thing to
definitely consider is you don't want to
be one of those that lists your house
when everyone else does if the market is
doing pretty well and for the most part
it's it's been pretty resilient to all
of this then honestly now could be the
best time for you to list your house or
your property or whatever it is a real
estate wise that you're looking to sell
now as I said a few times this is a
fluid situation and anything can change
we don't know if things are going to get
worse in the upcoming weeks if things
are going to get better in the upcoming
weeks I'm telling my clients that are
looking at listing a home here in the
next few weeks let's let's analyze
everything and take it week by week day
by day and we'll do what is best for you
and what you feel most comfortable with
at the time once we get to that point
where it's like okay I'm ready in the
next few days potentially to list the
home we need to to take this on a day
byday and a week by- week basis
otherwise we might see the market
flip overnight and run into a situation
where we list a home at the worst
possible time right now generally
speaking it is still a clear sellers
Market
there are still a lot of reasons to be
optimistic if you are looking to sell
showings are down so you need to not be
discouraged if your home isn't showing
as much what that means is the people
that are showing your home these are the
serious buyers so you're going to have
to if you if you live in the home that
you're selling you won't have to vacate
as much for showings you won't have to
to take the dog with you as much or take
take the kids with you as much and and
try to find something to do which now is
harder than ever you know you might have
to go to a rest area or something now in
order to to try to find somewhere to go
you don't have to do that as much so
it's actually not a terrible time to
sell and there's a lot of reasons for
optimism and
honestly I'm a bit surprised but the
data is the
data now a year from now we'll be able
to go back and look and see how many of
these properties that are under contract
right now how many of those contracts
come to
fruition but at the moment new homes
coming on the market they are going
under contract still very quickly I have
had buyer clients in multiple instances
the past couple of weeks get into
bidding wars with other buyers so there
is still a market out there there are
still people looking to
buy and don't don't think that that has
changed because of what is going on with
the Corona virus because of the
stay-at-home orders from the governors
real estate is still an essential
service people are still doing real
estate transactions there are going to
be parts of the market that's slow down
probably the multif Family Market is
going to see a continual slow down
probably the the high-end luxury Market
is going to see a slow down but some of
these other markets we're still seeing
homes and properties bought and sold
and if you are okay with people going
through your house right now there
are some people that really need to
consider listing their home now part of
that
is the market may get worse like this
this we might have a short window here
where the market is actually not very
heavily
impacted and then that takes a turn for
the worst and real estate in this area
ends up falling off the cliff like some
other Industries have we don't know
it's all speculative but here is some
data to help you make your decision to
help educate you on the market if you
have any questions again my contact
information in the show notes please
feel free to reach out to me and until
next time stay safe wear your mask and
don't go crazy during the quarantine
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