Hello everyone and Welcome again to
another edition of the Selling
Greenville podcast I'm your host Stan McCune
realtor right here in Greenville
South Carolina and as I say every
episode you can always find my contact
information in the show notes it's
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right okay so let's jump right into it
the greater Greenville Association of
Realtors just released its monthly
statistics for the month of April and I
want to discuss this because I've been
waiting on the edge of my seat for
this information because I do my best to
analyze the MLS data and to try to draw
some conclusions from what that data
says and from you know what is
happening in the market from what I can
see but the GG the greater Greenville
Association of Realtors also publishes
some really helpful data and that
combined with the data that I've been
crunching we can kind of get a fuller
picture of what has happened in the
market the past month and what is
continuing to happen now so let's start
by just looking at the data that I've
crunched from the MLS and if you need to
go back and listen to a previous podcast
I had done this around I believe
April 17th if I remember correctly there
was a podcast I released where I kind of
explained the methodology but basically
I'm looking at new listings for a
time period and the time period that I'm
looking at right now is April 30th to
May 11th kind of picking up where we
left off with April 29th last time we
did a market update so April 30th to May
11th I'm looking at new listings and
then I'm looking at new contracts on
those listings and then I'm comparing
that to
2019 new listings for the same time
period and then how many of those new
listings ended up going under
contract during that time period the
main flaw with doing it this way is that
I can't predict what new contracts are
going to fall through and we're
comparing it to data last year for the
same time period on contracts that
actually
worked out that actually sold there
there isn't really a simple way I mean
it would take me hours upon hours to
look at all the the ones that went under
contract and then fell through for the
same period last year so unfortunately
it's not a complete Apples to Apples
comparison but it's not too far off it's
kind of like a red delicious to Gayla
comparison you know of course nobody
should eat red delicious they are not
delicious
eat eat Gayla that is a much better
Apple just a another Shameless plug this
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all right so here is what happened
between April 30th and May 11 this
for this year during that time period
with the methodology that I used we had
738 properties this includes more than
just homes this also includes land and
whatnot but
738 properties that came on the market
out of those
738
242 of them either sold or are under
contract
all right so this has been pretty
comparable to what we've been seeing
that's you know roughly a third is of
the ones that came on the market are
already under contract that is
comparable to to what we have been
seeing a lot of the times that we have
run this data and crunched these
numbers how does that compare to 2019
well in 2019 for the same period of time
98 three properties came on the market
so that's a
245 property difference or to say it
another way it's a
25% difference so that is a a big
drop off for the month of April and that
is not surprising as we've been saying
on on this podcast a lot of sellers have
been dropping out or are holding off are
waiting to see what happens and maybe
we'll see these numbers really rebound
as more consumer comp confidence for
sellers comes in the
market for that same time period
April 30th to May 11th of
2019 of the homes that came on the
market 195 of those went under contract
and sold during that same time period
so we're comparing 242 that have gone
under contract but a large percentage of
those haven't sold yet to in 2019 that
was in 2020 to 42 in 2019
195 that actually went under contract
during that same date range among the
new listings and ended up selling
so what's most interesting to me about
that number is that that number is
actually down percentage wise from the
other times that we have looked at this
data in other words it seems like we
have had a little
downtick of of homes going under
contract here the past two weeks because
before when we were looking at this data
it was more like a you know 35 to
40% difference when we were comparing
these numbers and now that when we
compare what has gone under contract for
this period April 30th to May 11th
versus last year we're looking at a
24% difference so that tells me that we
are seeing some buyers during that
period appear to have dropped out of
the market or or who knows what it the
the data is really confusing but the
thing that that you should know is that
both listings are down both contracts
are down which we expect contracts to be
down right you expect contracts to be
down about the same a
percentage as new
listings but what's interesting is that
when we compare this to the data that
we've been running the past few months
it appears that new contracts are down
even more than it has been you know
since the the early part of April so
that's something for us to keep track
of now as far as the data that was
published by the GG
this is for the entire month of April so
this will give us a snapshot of what the
market has been
doing new
listings that came on the market 2020
according to the
GG was
1,529 this year for the month of April
how does that compare to 2019 well
obviously we know that this this is
going to be down how that compares to
2019 that's 327 new listings lower than
last year so last year was one
856 in other words it's about a 17 a
half% drop off in new listings now
here's where the data takes a little bit
of a Twist they list pending sales how
many sales are pending and compare that
year
onye in the month of April only
549 sales homes went pending compared to
to in
2019 so in April of 2020 549 in April of
2019
1,365 went pending that is a huge drop
off that is a
60% drop off
816 there there's more it's 800 an
816 home or sale difference and the
total number was 5 49 for the month of
April of this past year so so the
difference is greater than the the
number of pending sales so that is
that's a a bit of a
concern so we've been tracking that for
the most part it appears that more
sellers have dropped out of the market
than buyers have but what that data
appears to tell me is that a lot of
these contracts that we're seeing coming
on these new listings that those
contracts are probably a large
percentage of them are falling through
and then the homes are coming back on
the market what that also tells me is
that we're seeing about a third of the
properties that come on the market going
under contract pretty much right away
those other 2third that are out there
are just kind of
sitting and you know it might be a
little while before they sell it they
need the right buyer to come along and
so there's there's a lot to consider but
it's not all bad news if you're a seller
again I've been harping I've been
chirping that this is still a sellers
market and the rest of the data honestly
says that again it's it's hard to we
have to put the whole picture together
we can't just look at one part of of the
market we have to look at everything and
so what about the average sales price
year on year for the month of April the
average sales price this year was over
258,000
last year the month of April it was
250,000 so that's an increase by over 3%
year on year I would like for that
number to be higher but the fact that it
went up when things are when there's so
much uncertainty in the market I think
that that that's a number that s should
be very happy about even more
importantly when you look at the
percentage of list price so the the GG
do this a little bit weird they look at
the list price and this is after any
price changes okay so there's a
possibility that that a large percentage
of these homes maybe not a huge
percentage but a decent percentage of
these homes did have a price reduction
so they're not comparing to the original
price they're comparing to the current
list price after possible price
reductions they're also not backing out
any seller concessions for instance if a
seller is paying closing costs they're
not factoring that in here but they look
at the current list price and then they
look at the contract what it actually
sold for and then say here is the
percentage of the list price that the
seller
received and the percentage for 2020
April was 98
4% if you have your home listed for
$100,000 you can expect in April you
could expect to get 98,500 for that home
how that compared to
2019 it it actually went up from 2019
where it was
98.2% and actually that number let me go
back and look at this because I was I
was comparing that number to a few
different things but that number was one
of the highest that we've had in a long
time just I'm just scrolling through all
of the data that the gjr has here so
we've got new listings pending sales
closed sales days on the market median
sales press average sales press here we
go
that was the highest number since
well July of 2019 was
98.4% now the thing is in July the
market typically slows down a little bit
so that's kind of interesting that could
just be that there were fewer homes on
the market that drove you know people to
have more aggressive of a purchase
strategy so they offered more than they
had the other months who knows in June
of 2019 though was the next highest
which was
98.6% so 98.4% % is a very high number
for us to be looking at in terms
of the percentage of the list price that
the home is under contract for again
that you that number is only so useful
but comparing it year onye is what I
find the most value in and the fact that
it went up year onye I think that's
another positive sign for sellers if
you're a buyer not the most positive
sign days on Market also positive for
sellers it went down from 57 days on
Market in 2019 to 54 in 2020 54 days on
Market is not a very long time like if
you sell your home within 54 days of
having it listed you feel really great
so that number has has gone down as
well another positive thing for for
sellers now when we look at inventory
this is the number of houses that are on
the market and then they take that
number and they run a calculation based
on the number of buyers in the market to
try to determine the number of months of
inventory so our inventory went up quite
a bit year on-ear for April so that
number went up by
852 properties from 308 sorry
3,841 in 2019 all the way up to
4,693 in 2020 so that is a
22% increase in properties that are on
the market in April year on year so that
number seems to be a bit of a positive
for buyers again I think that that
indicates some of these Mar some of
these homes that are on the market that
have been on the market for a few months
that they are just kind of not
necessarily languishing on the Market
but they're staying on the market maybe
longer than they normally would we may
be seeing this is a possibility there's
not really an easy way for me to run
this data we may be seeing sellers not
reducing the price on their homes or on
you know their property that they have
listed because they want to ride out
this
covid-19 quarantining situation which
is starting to get looser now but they
want to kind of maybe they want to ride
that out and they're less inclined to
lower the list price and as a result
their home isn't
selling and now the inventory is going
up well that that part of it would be a
positive for buyers we just haven't yet
seen that reflected in the sales price
the percentage of list price today on
the market all all of those statistics
which are much more
important are positives for the
seller so at some point I would expect
these inventory numbers
to start being reflected in a helpful
way for the buyer but up to this point
it has not happened up to this point all
the numbers for for sellers are
looking good with the exception of homes
that are you know just kind of
staying on the market and aren't selling
the month's worth of
inventory it it's been hovering in
the low 3es for a while now in April
2019 it was 3.4
and so that means if you sold you
know it it would normally take given the
market conditions 3.4 months for all the
homes to sell that is a a big- time
buyer market right six months of
inventory is kind of considered an even
Market neither a buyer nor a seller's
market so according to GG the month of
April 2020 was 4.1 so that would be 4.1
months of inventory that would be a 20 %
increase year onye I would take that
with a grain of salt I mean it appears
like that's accurate considering the
inventory level went up by 852
properties but I will say I track this
data every month and it's not uncommon
for the GG to go back and reduce that
number there were several months the
past six or seven months that the ggr
had that number in the fours and then
the next month when they produced their
data they reduced red the month before
back down into the three so I'm not
exactly sure what all goes into their
calculation or why that number tends to
get reduced down the
road what they're saying April was was
4.1 months of inventory which would be a
a slight shift in the buyer direction if
that's true but still squarely is
sellers market and also I would caution
you that that might not be accurate as
well they might down the road update
that to be you know back down in the
threes like what we've been for a while
so it's a very interesting market right
now we have a lot of conflicting data
what I think what my gut tells me is
that we will see a shift in the buyer
Direction coming at some point here in
the near future I think that we can can
expect for that to happen that is you
know kind of what I'm telling my clients
that I think is going to happen but we
don't know there's a lot of uncertainty
and if sellers keep dropping out of the
market then what we're going to find is
that there's not a whole lot of new
listings you might have to if you're a
buyer you might have to kind of be
perusing old listings that are out
there and seeing you know hey is there
anything interesting out of the out
of the old listings maybe let's say that
your price point is up to 250,000
maybe you need to increase that to 275
because maybe there's a home listed for
like
270 that has been on the market now for
three months but they're not lowering
the price because they're scared to they
want to kind of ride this out but maybe
that seller would be willing to to come
down and I had a closing not too long
ago that was like that that I talked
to my clients they were buyer clients
and we were just like you know hey let's
look at what fits your criteria but is
above your price point to see if there's
anything that's been on the market for a
while lo and behold we found something
that was probably about5 $20,000
above what they really wanted to spend
that it had been on the market for a
long time for months and they just
hadn't reduced the price and so I was
like Hey listen I bet that I can
negotiate this price down this is this
home fits all of the the qualifications
that I look for for a home that could be
brought down into the range that you
need to be brought down and sure enough
we were able to do that we were able to
get that home for a dramatically reduced
price think I can't remember the exact
numbers but we got it over 10% cheaper
than what it had been listed for and
that was just because it was it was
overpriced but for some reason the
seller was just holding on to that price
even though they were willing to come
down and I guess they were holding out
for the right buyer whatever it may be
but but those opportunities can be out
there and that might be the strategy if
you're a buyer or you're thinking about
becoming a buyer in this market you
might have to approach it from that
standpoint not just waiting passively
for the right home to come on the market
but you might have to be expanding your
search criteria having more of an open
mind towards what is currently on the
market but is sitting there there and
there may be some good opportunities to
find a home that that you can get
some equity in that was what I ended up
when my wife and I we we first bought
our first home years and years ago it
was a similar situation where we had
been looking for a really long time we
we put a lot of offers in on a lot of
homes but got outbid on them we were we
were we didn't have a whole lot of money
right this was again years ago this is
during the Great Recession we didn't
have a whole lot of money the price
point we were looking in hommes kept
selling right away and so it was kind of
like we were just looking at Old
listings and the home that we ended
up buying was one of those that it was a
HUD home it had been on the market for
forever and it was just it was listed
for 130 and I think I've told this story
before but in case you haven't
listened to the older podcast it was
listed for 130 it was a HUD home it had
been on the market for forever and I was
just like you know what it's great
location that home needs a ton of work I
mean yeah let's just throw a lowball
offer on it and see what happens we in
hindsight this is kind of embarrassing
but we offered
80 and asked for HUD to pay 3% of
that in our closing costs and HUD like
right away yes we will we will dump that
property off I mean it had been on the
market for like a year and they had
reduced they' already reduced the price
multiple times and it was one that
for us we didn't love the home at that
time and it needed so much work but it
was just like well if they'll come down
to 80 you know it's a great location we
know that we'd have Equity it could
make sense at that point now that was a
buyer Market back then you can't really
do that now I mean to to ask for seller
to come down 30
40% but it's for a home that's been on
the market for a while asking for a
seller to come down five six seven 10
percent that is a little bit more
reasonable maybe even a little bit more
than 10% depending on how much it's
overpriced but you do have to be careful
as well that sellers know that it's a
sellers Market if you come in with a
crazy low ball offer right now it's
not like it was in 2009 sellers back
then they would get those lowball offers
and yeah it hurt but they understood it
they under they had more of an
understanding that the market wasn't a
good market for them to be selling in
and they knew they were going to get
those lowballs in this market you start
really lowballing people you risk them
getting upset at you if you really like
the home you risk there being a a
situation where they don't even counter
and don't even take you seriously so you
don't want to come in too low if if it's
a if it's a property that you like come
in too low and then risk upsetting the
seller for a property that you really
want just because you're trying to to
shave as much off the price as possible
at some point we're going to talk
about that strategy in a little bit more
detail but I felt like that was relevant
to this discussion as we talk about
what's going on in the market and and
what that means in terms of what your
buying or selling strategy should be and
what you should expect as always if you
have any questions for me you can
always reach out to me on social media
on my phone number which I have in
the show notes you can text me you can
email me also in the show notes contact
me however you want ask me any questions
you want as always subscribe to the
podcast and let's go out and buy and
sell some homes
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