Hello everyone and Welcome once again to
another episode of the Selling
Greenville podcast I am your host as
always Stan McCune realtor right here in
Greenville South Carolina where we have
been having again the most unusual
weather I have ever seen in a year 2020
is just out to get us the other day it
was a high in the high 50 I don't know
what is happening we're in the middle of
June I'm recording this on June 18th
we are in the middle of June and having
days where the highs are in the in
the high 50s that is unbelievable I
don't know how to explain it but anyway
here we are it's 2020 this type of stuff
just happens now I joked on my social
media that it's like Narnia for those of
you that have seen it or read the books
where it is always winter and never
Christmas that's what it feels like this
year and yeah I'm I'm just kind of
ready for for a new phase of the year
to to come through here nonetheless here
we are we continue to to do our thing
in the real estate game a lot of us
are starting to to pick up in our
business and today I want to talk about
what the market is doing because the
greater Greenville Association of
Realtors released their monthly
statistics to Realtors I want to discuss
that but real quick before we do that
just the the normal housekeeping we
always have to do is if you need to
contact me for any reason please look in
the show notes if you don't already have
my phone number or my email those will
be in there and I am more than happy to
help you if you need a realtor if you
know someone that needs a realtor here
in Greenville or in the upstate I am
your guy I am more than happy to help
you I have the bandwidth I have you know
team resources at my disposal we have an
assistant as part of that we have ways
to be able to handle a lot of volume
that happens all at the same time so I
have the bandwidth to take on more
clients please let me know if you are
interested or if you know someone else
is interested in buying or selling
real estate no deal is is too small for
me that is has been my calling card for
a long time now and something that I
take pride in and of course as I
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well if there's something that you would
like for us to cover I would love to
know that I try to cover things if I get
special requests for those things and
so yeah one of the things that I've
I've heard from multiple people is they
like when we cover what's happening in
the local market here because it's
different in Greenville than it is
Nationwide for a variety of reasons
but what some of you are experiencing
ing in places on the West Coast or in
Florida or in other places where some of
you that are out of state that I've
talked to it's different than what we're
experiencing here in Greenville now we
had as we expected and as I predicted a
dip in May particularly in closed sales
and this has taken our annual closed
sales again all of these statistics I'm
presenting today are courtesy of the
greater Greenville Association of
Realtors I have not done any addition
statistics like I've done in the past
I'm simply looking at the greater
Greenville Association right now we
have seen in the
GG an
18.2% dip in closed sales for the year
that's a pretty substantial dip we're
we're almost at 20% fewer closed sales
year on year through May versus 2019
so that's that's a big difference the
one-year change month supply of
inventory they're saying is a
17.6% difference so the closed sales and
the inventory the Clos sale decrease and
the inventory increase are about the
same
percentage so that is somewhat to be
expected again I discussed last week
that sometimes these months inventory
statistics can be off and and that was
the case last month I'll get to that
here in a second so don't don't take
all of that as like oh man we're
definitely entering a buyer's market
I'm still cautioning that there's a lot
of conflicting data here that that we
need to
discuss all right so I'm just going to
kind of go I'm not going to cover every
single page there's 19 Pages here of
Market statistics that the greater green
will Association gave us but I'm going
to go through a few different
highlights that I find interesting
and that I think that those of you that
are listening will be most interested in
so new listings and again some of
this data they revise so some of this
data might be different than what we
discussed last month in terms of
their April data so I apologize for that
they they go back and they revise some
things after I guess they get more
data but what we had in this
market for new listings we had in March
so going back to March we we had an
increase in new listings year on year so
we had more people list homes in March
than we had had the previous year so
that was right before you know all the
social distancing happened right before
people started getting scared and
then after that we really took a nose
dive April went down
17.3% fewer listings year onye and then
may here we go we continued the plunge
24.5% fewer listings year on year we had
1524 new listings that happened in
May of this year may of 2019 had well
2019 interestingly new listings so
almost almost entirely a quarter of
fewer listings year
onye so people are really holding back
on selling their homes I know I have
several potential clients that are
doing updates to their homes and kind of
getting their homes ready probably
looking to sell later this summer maybe
in the fall I'm I'm thinking that a
lot of people are doing that and
probably a good portion of those people
that are not selling their home are
people that will not sell their home
that they would have if the market were
different if there wasn't covid-19 but
they have chosen you know what this is
not the year we're going to stay put
we're going to keep our home and we're
just going to
ride this
out now pending sales this one was the
big one so the way GJ describes this
is It's a count of the properties on
which offers have been accepted in a
given month okay so pending sales were
down Year onye
57.4% all right so last month was was
high last month or or I should say April
April was high where it was was down
18.7% and we knew that that was going to
trickle into into the market that
that would basically directly correlate
to closing sales and it did our closing
sales were down 18.2% which is almost
exactly the same number as what the
pending sales were down in April so
pending sales in May were down
57.4% that is insane if that if the
data continues in the same way that it
did last month then what that means is
that our closing sales for the month of
June are going to also be down close
to
57.4% now I sure hope that's not the
case but it sure looks like it will be
now a lot of us are starting our
business is starting to pick back up so
I anticipate there's going to be a big
upswing that we see in in pending
sales probably for the month of
June and maybe that will continue into
July normally in July is kind of a Down
month in our Market as people go on
vacation or what what have you that
might not happen this year the
interesting thing that's going to happen
is with there being so M so fewer
listings coming on are we going to run
into a situation where we we have even
less supply for the buyers out there a
lot of buyers entering the market and
they're finding that there's just no
homes available I think I think that's
I think that's a very good
possibility and it's something that we
have to to continue to
monitor we've already just discussed
closed sales were down
18.2% that's our next page days on
Market Days on Market actually went down
that's interesting and and these are
defined by the GG hours average number
of days between when a property is
listed and when an offer is accepted in
a given month all right so that went
down from 49 days in May of 2019 to 48
days in May of 2020 so just a one- day
Improvement but for all practical
purposes that's within the margin of
error basically people that are buying
homes they're doing it in the same way
in the same time frames as they
normally would and normally do so what
about sales prices well this is also
where we have some again some data for
sellers that is positive where the
median sales price went up year on-year
3.6% and we have not seen besides
January which is kind of an unusual
month we have basically seen every
month since January increase the median
sales price and again for those of you
who don't know what median is it's the
middle number in a sequence of nso we
we like to look at the median sales
price when we're looking at real estate
transactions as opposed to the average
sales price because properties that are
really really expensive in a market
where U most properties here are selling
in the mid2 200s properties that sell
for 800 900,000 a million will really
skew the average numbers so in our
Market the median sales price is a
really good indicator of kind of what
the average is the median sales price in
May of 2020 was 228,000 our 12month
median is 220,000 so we're we're holding
you know pretty pretty good we're seeing
an uptick there May of 2019 was
202,000 and and the 12 month count at
that point was 210,000 so our 12 month
is up
4.8% and then our year- on-year is up
3.6% from 220,000 in 2019 May 2019
to May of this year was
$228,000 so that's good and of course
the average sales price also went up
3.1% the fact that it went up
3.1% versus the median going up
3.6% indicates probably that a few of
those pricier homes are not selling
at the same clip that they did that
that they have at other times which is
unsurprising unsurprising so the average
home sale here is for May of 2020 was
266,000
426 versus
25833 last May so that all of those
are continuing to rise we are not seeing
the market causing home prices to fall
similarly on the percentage of list
price received this is a very important
statistic again the ggr definition
percentage found when dividing a
property sales price by its most recent
list price that's an important
distinction because that does factor in
potential price changes if someone
listed their home and then several
months later they lower the price so
it's a percentage found when dividing a
property sales price by its most recent
list price then taking the average for
all property sold in a given month not
accounting for seller concessions so
we're taking the most recent price
potentially after price reductions and
then we are not accounting for seller
concessions so we're not factoring in
maybe if a seller paid for some closing
cost or gave a warranty what is the
percentage of the of the list price
that the home is being sold for we are
consistently around
98% May of 2020 was 98.4% and that is up
2% from the 98.2% that we saw saw in May
of 2019 so again people that have
their homes listed they are those homes
after potential price reductions tend
to sell for roughly
98% of what they are listed for
obviously that's if they're if
they're listed for the for the right
price not not surprisingly our
housing affordability index has gone
has gone low it's it's reached the
same number of 104 which is the same
number that we had in March of this year
so that's that's a low number housing
affordability is not is not improving
here in the area houses are becoming
less and less affordable over time
that housing affordability number just
to kind of give you a reference point it
reached its peak around 2011 so that's
why I tend to think that 2011 kind or
sorry the end of 2010 beginning of 2011
that was kind of when the recession in
the housing market here in Greenville
reached its worst Point those housing
affordability index numbers were in
the 180s at that point and now we
dropped to 104 which is lower than it
was in 2007 in 2007 it was around 110 so
our housing affordability has
completely cped what it was pre Great
Recession so I I think that this is
probably here to stay some people might
say well that's indicative that another
recession is coming I I don't know
I'm I'm not sure I'm ready to say that
obviously we are already in a recession
from the Corona virus but I mean a more
permanent type of thing I'm not ready to
say that just yet all right so we talked
about inventory how this is a number
that I'm not exactly sure what gjr does
with great greenal Association does in
terms of why they go back and revise
previous months but but last month
it was higher than than what they
reported it now so now they're saying
April that there was no increase or
decrease in month supply of inventory
they're saying it was
3.4% so I'm going to caution that this
month they're saying it is 4% which
would be an increase from the
3.4% of May of 2019 but I'm going to
caution that that is likely to be
revised next month when they come out
with this it'll probably go back down
into that three 3 and a half month
range which is squarely a sell Market
even four months of inventory that is
squarely a sell Market I've said told
you guys this before until we reach six
months that's when we kind of consider
it to be neither a sellers nor a buyer
Market so even if we had an increase
in inventory up to 4% sorry up to 4
months of inventory I don't see that
as really being indicative of a Major
Market change in and of itself we
again you look at all the other
statistics percentage of list price
perceived the mediprice the average
price all of those indicate that the
seller is still in the driver's seat the
fact that we may have had a slight
increase in month supply of inventory
that strikes me as more of an anomaly
than anything I'm not
I'm really not putting much stock in
that and like I said next month I will I
would almost put money on it that that
number for May will somehow get redacted
and will appear lower when they come
out with these stats again next
month now a few things I haven't really
gone over this in the past but I'm kind
of interested in discussing this for
just a minute so they they break it down
some of these statistics further by
price range by bedroom count and by
property type and there are some
interesting things to consider here so
the closed sale numbers this is based on
a rolling 12 Monon total but if you look
at the Buy price range closed sales
there a a an image starts to come into
Focus here and that image is that it's
actually somewhat counterintuitive but I
think I know why or at least I have a
theory the image is that the homes on
the lower end of the spectrso how are
we defining the lower end well if the
median sales price is in the 230s and
the averag is in the 260s we we have to
think below that maybe quite a bit below
that so maybe let's consider the lower
end in in the upstate here to be at the
very least below 200,000 we might
even say below
150 just you know you see a lot of
homes between 150 and 200,000
that are pretty comparable to homes in
the two to 250 range so let's just call
and and again I'm not trying to to
make this as a pedora of the low end
that's not what I'm trying to say I
believe that there are good property
purchases on all ends of the spectrum
but just for the purposes of this
podcast we're going to call purchases
below or Clos sales below 150,000
roughly the low end for this Market
that is the end of the price range that
has been hit the hardest the past 12
months in terms of closed sales
between so between zero and $100,000
closed sales Now understand this
probably
includes Lots residential lots land
some other things like that it's not
clear in the GD but I'm pretty sure
that's that's what it is so between zero
and 100,000 we have seen a decrease in
closed sales the past rolling 12 months
by
25.4% now to put that in in
perspective that price point is also
also indicating it would be on the lower
end of the spectrbecause there would
be less in most markets there is less
Supply on the lower end of the spectrum
by far that's the lowest number of
houses per group here so there there
were only 700 past 12 Rolling months 123
homes below 100,000 that have sold to
put that in perspective that sweet spot
that we discussed which would be in
the mid tws so in in in these
statistics they categorize it between
$200,000 and
$1 and 300,000 there were 5,068 closings
the past rolling 12 months in that
price point between 200 and 300,000 so
only
723 below 100,000 there are not a lot of
homes available below
$100,000 and and there's not a whole
lot of them selling and and Below
150,000 it's similar that went down year
on-year
14.9% to
1,800 this this year versus last year
so there are two things I think
Happening Here one is that there's just
not very many homes in that price point
that are available if you're an investor
or an owner occupant looking for a
home below 100,000 in the greater
Greenville Association of reals there's
not a lot available but it's probably
also has to do with the fact that in
recent months that banks have really
started tightening up their
requirements for buyers with lower
credit the type of buyers that would
typically be purchasing homes in that
price point and on investors as well
which are also a major demographic that
buy in that lower price point in this
area so if you're trying to sell
between 0 to
$150,000 understand there is a less of a
market out there than there was before
now that doesn't mean that you're
going to have a hard time selling it
just kind of depends on a lot of other
factors but you should be aware of that
all the other price points have seen
increases in closed sales the past 12
months between 150 and 200,000 is up
6.2% between 200 and 300 we already
discussed up 12.6 and 300,000 and
above is up
16.9% also very interesting the homes
so they they do this by bedroom count
and and they say two bedrooms or fewer
actually they say two bedrooms or less
that is incorrect it should be two
bedrooms or fewer if you're with the GD
and you're listening to me be sure to
correct that so they they categorize
it two bedrooms or less which should be
fewer three bedrooms or four bedrooms or
more and of course the largest category
is the three bedroom
category but out of all of these the
only one that had decrease in Clos sales
is the two bedrooms or less category
which makes sense those would be the
ones that would tend to be those cheaper
homes that we saw suffer the most so
that went down
2.8% in in this rolling 12 month
May 2020 versus May 2019 the
three-bedroom categories up 6.2% and the
four or more is up
5.8% in the the rolling 12
months
that said if you look at days on
Market we kind of see the opposite
dayson Market is up for all the
categories except for those homes
that are are 200,000 and above so well I
said it's the opposite it kind of
depends on how you're looking at it
but basically $100,000 and Below homes
their days on Market is is basically
holding steady in the 12 months 42 days
on market last year versus this year
if you're in the 100 to
150,000 price point the past 12 months
you've seen a slight increase in the
number of days on market now it was very
low the 12 12 months that ended in
May of 2019 saw only 32 days on Market
based on based on the way they
calculate this which the ggr defines as
average number of days when a property
is listed and an offer is accepted so 32
days that's by far the lowest
category that went up to 34 the past
12 months we've seen the 1502 200
price point increase from 4 41 to 43 the
past 12 months and then we've
basically seen a very slight decrease 2%
and 1.8% on the other price points 200
to 300,000 is taking about 58 days
300,000 above taking 72 days versus 73
days the year before so those are
just some some quick numbers days on
Market if you're selling a home
basically below 200,000 you can expect
on average it'll go under contract
within a year and with sorry within a
month and a half if you're above that
price point you're looking at at more
like two to two and a half months my
numbers for my
listings by far outpace those numbers
and and I won't go into all the
details on that but a lot of these are
obscured by listings that are just
overpriced and just sit on the market
for a really really long
time that is pretty much all that I
wanted to look at actually we'll look at
one other quick thing and that is we
talked about the inventory levels and
here we go with homes the inventory
levels with homes under 100,000 and
Below down
21.9% based on the ggr definition
which is the number of properties
available for sale inactive status at
the end of the most recent month based
on one month of
activity
so the 100,000 and Below price point
there is 20 basically 22% fewer homes
available May of this year versus May of
last year but all the other categories
are up 100 to 150,000 that's up
13.6% 150 to 200 up
19.3% 200 to 300 up 21
9% 300 and above up
99.6% all that that means is that there
are more houses sitting out there and
even though there are a lot of good
numbers for sellers to look at the
one number that is concerning is that
the homes that have been on the market
for a little bit and haven't sold they
are starting to languish a bit on the
market with the exception of that below
$100,000 price point and and that is
mostly because probably because there's
just not as many coming for sale there's
not as big of a market as we discussed
not as many coming available for sale
because there's just not a a lot of
homes in that price point
anymore and and ultimately there is
probably a lot more demand for that
under 100,000 price point than there is
Supply even with the demand having gone
down due to lending
restrictions and so in terms of the
month supply of
inventory the way they calculate
it the the price point that has seen
the biggest increase in month supply of
inventory is actually the 100 to
50,000 price point that went up from May
2019 1.6 months which is really really
low I mean that's unbelievably low so it
went from 1.6 to 2.3 so that's a a big
increase but I'm not sure if that says
anything because you're talking about
2.3 months of inventory that's like
nothing all right 100,000 and below
is at 2.1% which is a slight increase
year on-ear 150 to 200,000 the inventory
levels are up to to to
2.6 versus 2.2 months last year so
that's a 16.7%
increase 200 to 300,000 went up to
3.9 months and then and and here's
exactly what I was saying before it's
the 300 and above that is that is
dragging down a few of these numbers the
months of inventory if you're selling a
home for 300,000 and above that is a a
seven Monon level of inventory so and
again probably a lot of these are going
to end up changing they're probably
going to go back and redact some of this
next month I'm not super worried
about any of that I I don't necess I
wouldn't put a ton of stock into that
the main thing to look at there is that
the 300,000 above that is where there is
a lot of
inventory everything else is pretty low
so if you're looking at a home 300,000
and above right now it is I I wouldn't
say it's a buyer Market because that's a
really wide range but at s months of
inventory versus 6. six last year that
is more that is more leaning towards the
buyer than the seller at that point so
just keep that in mind if you're looking
at anything below
300,000 you you are more or less looking
at it being still more the seller in the
driver's seat I would say that because
it jumps from 200 to 300,000 being 3.9
months to 300 and above being seven
months I would venture to say probably
the 300 to 400 price point the level of
inventory probably isn't anywhere near
seven it's probably a lot closer to you
know four and a half five which would
still be the sellers market now if
you're looking above 4
500,000 you as a buyer you have some
some good leeway there you have you're a
little bit more in the driver's seat at
that point not completely in the
driver's seat you know 7 months of in of
supply of inventory is not a major
buyers Market we've seen it go to 9 10
months around here you know back when
things were bad but that is just
something to consider as you're looking
at houses so I hope that that was all
helpful again just as a reminder you can
always reach me any times you have any
questions if you want to discuss this I
love discussing this data with my
clients a lot of them will text or call
me shortly after the podcast to discuss
some of the stuff and I really do enjoy
that I always have time for that
and so I'd love to hear from you
again make sure you're subscribed to the
podcast and listen if you go camping
like I did this past weekend make
sure you bundle up it is colder than
normal out there I got a little bit
chilly it was supposed to go into the
low the mid to low 50s ended up going
into the mid to low 40s which is a big
difference thankfully we were all well
prepared it all worked out but just
keep that in mind you want to stay warm
out there hopefully it will warm up
so that you can get some time in the
pool as we all want to do but stay
safe out there go buy and sell some
houses and let's have a great rest of
the year together
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