Hello everyone and Welcome to another
episode of Selling Greenville I am your
host as always Stan McCune realtor right
here in lovely Greenville South Carolina
the upstate of South Carolina as always
just a reminder all my contact
information is in the show notes should
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that today we're going to be talking
about Rumblings of a
Slowdown Plus in addition to that
analyzing some of the data it's really
hard to look at the data in real time to
determine whether there's a Slowdown but
at least looking at the data
historically and kind of what we might
expect to happen here in in the
future the Rumblings of a Slowdown well
I'm just going to start by introducing
this I keep seeing Realtors on
different social media pages and and
different things saying that they they
just feel a Slowdown they feel like
something something happened recently
and they're not exactly sure what
exactly it was and it's again it's hard
to quantify in real time
there's a challenge as well which is
the seasonality of of this business
and how all of that plays out as well so
yes there is kind of always a summer
slowdown there is a usually a big ramp
up to July or or really a big ramp up to
June and then a tapering off a little
bit in July and then a little end of
summer push in August and then a long
taper that that kind of takes us through
the holiday season before things start
to rebound back up again in January
and that tapering is both often times in
terms of listings and in terms of sales
so it's both a supply and a demand
tapering for the most part so what that
means is that basically just the
entire
Market tapers simultaneously so it's not
like we have okay typically a bunch
more listings but a bunch more buyers
dropping out typically those numbers go
hand inand and and that's lot logical
because people that are buying a home a
lot of them are selling a home and vice
versa those that are selling a home are
often times trying to buy a replacement
home even those in the investment
sphere often times if they sell
something they're looking to buy
something so we see those numbers
kind of go hand inand it's hard to know
with covid what exactly to expect from
this year because this is a very weird
year covid wise obviously we had
things at at least down here in
Greenville basically just open up and
and everyone kind of
operating as normal with really
nowhere anym requiring Mass hardly at
all everything opened up to to normal
hours like just kind of business as
usual but then we also have this
Delta variant that of course I'm sure
you guys have heard ad nauseabout
that's kind of going around and that's
threatening to perhaps disrupt some
things we don't know exactly what that's
going to do but my point in saying this
is I it's hard to know how all of this
impacted the summer of this year when a
lot of people go on vacation I know a
lot of people took June vacations
rather than July vacations but I know a
lot of people that took July vacations
as well some people did both it St it
it's reasonable that people might be
taking more vacations this year than
they took in previous years because a
they've got more money stimulus wise
they've received various you know
stimulus checks and and now people are
getting you know several hundred a month
for their
children that the government is sending
out different things like that plus
combined with the whole pent up
Wander lust as it were that people
have that they wanted to go on vacation
last year maybe their vacation last year
was cancelled and so they're making up
for it this year all of that impacts the
real estate market because a lot of
what's happening when we have that
little July slowdown that's people going
on vacation that's people do you know
doing things that don't involve real
estate and that's why there typically
is a little bit of an August
bounceback so as we're trying to sift
through whether there is a meta slowdown
happening or whether there is is simply
just a normal seasonal slowdown
happening it's really hard it it's it's
hard to
determine what the Dynamics are there
but there's definitely a Slowdown of
some sort that has happened which we
can track a variety of different ways
perhaps the simplest way is that
mortgage applications have gone down and
that's a really good indicator of
whether things are heating up or slowing
down when mortgage applications go down
that tell you okay there are fewer
people looking to buy I think as well
things got so crazy in June and we've
talked about buyer fatigue in the past
things went absolutely nutty during the
month of June that I can only imagine
that a lot of buyers just kind of said
hey I'm I'm going to wait this out I'm
going to I'm going to let this cool down
I'm going to let this slow down and then
I'll perhaps re-enter the market
during the fall or I'll reenter the
market next year whatever the case may
be but we saw some statistics in the
month of June and and GJ the the greater
Greenville Association of Realtors has
not yet released July St statistics
excuse me they have not yet released
the stats for July it usually takes them
a few weeks to call that together but
I've got the June statistics in front of
me and they're crazy housing
affordability went down to the lowest
level it's ever been percent of list
price received for June was 101.3 that's
the highest it's ever been that means on
average on average every house that
sold sold for more than it was listed
for by over 1.3% we've never seen
anything like that it's it's you know
the average sales price actually the
average plateaued a little bit which is
interesting but the median sales price
which is much more important went to
its highest level ever and may it was
up
16% year onye for the month of May
and June it was up
13.8% now up to
267,000 that's now the median price
point you know it was 235 back in
June of 2020 and that was a massive
increase from June of
2019 we've just it's it's eye popping
these numbers it's it's really starting
to put the squeeze on first-time home
buyers historical days on market and
and this is the one that out of all
these numbers this is the one that's
that pops out to me the percent of list
price pered received being over an
entire percentage Point higher than 100%
that one's a pretty eye popping number
but this one's even more eye popping
to me is the days on Market until
sale so this is basically the amount of
time well I I'll just read it I'll read
what GG says the average number of days
between when a property is listed and
when an offer is accepted in a given
month and you know on average this
has typically ranged between you know
like 40 and 60 days in the month of
June it was 24 days it has never been
that low and I mean if you look at the
chart it's like a
falloff for the the summer months
this year of of
how much fewer days on Market these
homes have been compare that to June of
2021 it was 55 days so it it literally
more than halfed it's down to it was
down to 24 days and and so that's what
that means is obviously there are
properties that are you know overpriced
that are languishing on the market that
that drive that number up so what that
means is that there is a plethora of
properties that just sold very very
quickly and obviously those properties
were in that sub $300,000 price point
and that is the price point that
that's really getting the squeeze
more than anything else right now and so
what happens is a lot of times those
buyers get get fatigued they're so tired
and so burned out of getting you know
outbid by others looking at so many
houses submitting so many offers and
they just get to that point where she's
like you know what I just need to to
wait it out and so that can cause an
artificial not not an artificial
slowdown but that can cause a a Slowdown
that isn't a meta slowdown but it's a
Slowdown that's it's almost like
deferring business so I'm I'm kind of
wondering if this is going to be an an
interesting thing where we have
something that happens during the fall
that doesn't normally happen if we have
perhaps a fall month that kind of
ends up being a little bit spicier
as it were a little bit more interesting
a little bit more activity than we
typically have I I don't know I I don't
know what will happen in the fall but
it'll be interesting to track
certainly last year's fall was was
extremely interesting and who knows
who knows what's going to happen this
year
there are some other interesting
things as as we look as I look through
this data and and this could be
indicative again if this is all accurate
sometimes these GG stats are not for
the month that they are looking at
sometimes they go back and they revise
some of the data so it's not always
accurate but this is one that usually is
pretty accurate is the pending sales so
let me read what the pending sales is
the count of properties on which offers
have been accepted in a given month okay
so that's a good indicator of activity
when we look at pending sales pending
sales for June
2020 Now reminder June 2020 was crazy
cuz that was when we were really you
know after all the lockdowns and
everything that was when things really
started getting crazy around here so
last year it was very high it was
1612 was the amount of pending sales we
had in June of
2020 which is right up there with
some of the highest levels that we've
ever seen you know March of this year
was
1637 April of this year was
1632 May though went down to 1503 so
so that that June 2020 number is
pretty close to to the top well compare
that to June of this year it was
767 it dropped off Again by more than
half so we had and that number that
number is comparable we haven't seen a
number that low since November of
2019 so that is
actually a very interesting number and
and I'm not saying it's a cause for
concern and I don't want to
exaggerate what that number could mean
but there were a lot less homes that
went under contract during the month of
June than would have been
expected and why was that were there
fewer homes that that listed no no as a
matter of fact there were a lot of
homes that listed during during the
month of June for this year if I pull up
the new listings it was
1956 which is right up there at the top
I mean that is near the highest that
we have ever had that's the highest
number since let's see the middle of
2019 looks like it's it's hard for me
to see the way they lay out this data
but it looks like that's the highest
since like perhaps May April or May of
2019 so it wasn't that we had a lot
fewer listings for some reason we had in
the month of June a lot fewer contracts
and I'm really fascinated to see what
happened in July once that
information comes out and again I'm
not overreacting to to this data
because I'm out there in the marketplace
and I'm still seeing it's very
competitive and that there's still you
know a lot of angst but it it feels like
a lot of people in June went on vacation
or decided to take a break from Real
Estate
clo now here's the you have to offset
this was another thing so if we look at
closed sales closed sales in June were
the highest it's ever been so that is
the you know homes that went under
contract in April and May they closed in
June our closed sales in June were the
highest they've ever been so we're
definitely going to see that taper off I
mean we we can definitely expect to see
you know in July and perhaps August as
well that that we're going to see closed
sales kind of take a dive because
those contracts you know or it was a
low number homes the the pending sales
of homes that went under
contract so what does all this mean
well we need to to monitor this closely
just to see you know is this something
that's broader in the market or or was
this something that just kind of just
more of a blip on the radar more of the
seasonality of things being a little bit
different this year than it normally is
we don't know but I will say this I'm
not freaking out because we need a
little bit of a Slowdown if this is a
meta thing and and things are slowing
down a little bit that'll be tough
for sellers in the upcoming months
sellers will have to readjust their
expectations they've been used to seeing
all their neighbors you know have 25
showings and 10 offers and end up
selling their home above list price
sellers are going to have to adjust
their mindset that that that obviously
is not going to always be the case
and it may be sooner than later that
that is not the
case as far as buyers are concerned I
think that buyers that have decided
to pull out of the market need to
consider whether now is the the right
time to enter back in whether now is the
time okay maybe I can take advantage of
this it may not be a a meta slowdown it
may just be a temporary slowdown this
may be an opportunity for some buyers
and I am seeing some listings have to
start reducing their pricing and and
again this is anecdotal but I'm seeing
what appears to be more price reductions
than I remember seeing earlier this year
and so that's an opportunity for
buyers to to you know maybe some of
these homes are overpriced but if
they're starting to sit on the market
sellers are getting nervous sellers are
like man I I thought that this Market
was a was a sellers Market what's going
on here and so they might be willing
to accept a lower offer than than they
originally
were as far as
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looking at the the normal what
normally happens if we compare
listings that come on the market the
number of listings that come on the
market compared to the number of pending
sales month by month usually the best
month to
buy and you could perhaps say the worst
month to sell but it it doesn't it
doesn't always work out that way I
I'm hesitant to say something like that
but at the very least from a metadata
standpoint the best month to buy is the
month of October that's the month
historically when
listings exceed pending sales by quite a
bit so that's and to put that in
economic terminology that makes sense to
to most of my listeners that's when
there is more Supply than demand the the
the most amount of more Supply than
demand is typically the month of October
so keep that in mind again if you're a
fatigued buyer don't worry the fall
is coming up and the fall it it we get
fewer lists things usually so there
is there are fewer options out there for
you there's fewer houses for sale but
at the same time there's less
competition and that month of October
historically is a pretty good month for
listings historically there is I think
it's people that are it's kind of like a
pre holiday push so it's people that are
like okay I definitely don't want to
sell my house you know around
Thanksgiving or around Christmas or
around new years or anything like that
so there's like this pre holiday push in
October people list their homes but that
outpaces the number of people buying and
so then we see the taper after that the
the real big taper that happens in
November and December there's there's
really not a whole lot of homes that
that come on the market at all during
those months due to holidays people
traveling and all of
that so that's what we're seeing
short little episode here to give you
guys a little snapshot of the market
I think there are I think the Rumblings
of a Slowdown are accurate I think
something did slow down I'm not exactly
sure what that means draw your own
conclusions but I I do think the main
thing that I conclude from this is that
there is some sort of an opportunity for
buyers right now that perhaps there
wasn't and hasn't been for the past you
know 8 10 months and I think that you as
a buyer should take advantage of that
and if you're selling just just be aware
that this is kind of a weird market and
it's kind of a fluid situation you
might not be in a
situation where you know you're
getting the the type of offers that you
were before if you're a house flipper
for instance you might not find that
there is quite the frenetic activity
that there has been the past few months
maybe there is maybe there isn't again
it we're just looking at metadata and
different situations are different if
you're listing a house below that median
price point you should be gold you know
that median price point in the 260s
roughly
265 houses below that price point you
know that are in good locations in good
school districts those are gold right
now you won't have any you won't have
any problem selling those but some of
these other price points and some of
these other locations could be difficult
so that is something to keep in mind if
you guys have any questions let me know
my contact information is in the show
notes I hope you guys stay safe and have
a great rest of the week
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