Hello everyone and Welcome to another
episode of Selling Greenville your
favorite real estate podcast here in the
upstate of South Carolina I'm your host
as always Stan McCune realtor here in
lovely Greenville, South Carolina and
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help you guys out with any of your real
estate needs today we're going to do a
quick little market update to look at
the kind of the state of the market here
going into really the end of the year
we're here at the end of
2021 we have now really a lot of
data we we don't yet know how December
is going to shake out but we have
data for basically the entire year minus
the month of December which is always
kind of a quirky month anyway and so
we can kind of take a look at what
happened the past few months where the
market is right now and what exactly
can we expect moving forward I'm looking
at the greater Greenville Association of
Realtors aka the
GG Market stats that they just published
about a week or so ago which has
all of their data up through the month
of November now we've been through this
drill a few different times before as
you guys that are frequent listeners
know some of this data is inaccurate and
I try to preface preface that if I'm
dealing with something that I think may
be inaccurate I will let you know
otherwise you can deem the data to be
for the most part
reliable now here's the way the market
Works prices and inventory levels and
new listings new sales all of that they
go up and down throughout the year there
is a seasonality to any sort any sort of
sales and real estate sales is no
different than any of them so when
we're looking at the data we don't
necessarily compare this month to last
month that's not necessarily a helpful
way of doing it the sales in the month
of November for instance we would expect
often times that they might be down in
comparison to October or September
because the seasonality of the business
like I said we tend to see it tail
sales in general tail off in in real
estate tail off in November and December
and then start to gradually build their
way back up in January February before
they start to really take off in March
April May
June so what we tend to look at is
year on year what was the month of
November like what was the month of
October like what did we see did we see
growth did we see contraction
what did the market do in comparison to
last year and so that is for me kind
of the most important thing that that I
am looking at when I'm looking at this
data to see what exactly is happening
market-wide
now I'll remind you that there are
some things that are useful for com for
comparing to to previous months so
for instance we're looking at new
listings new listings for the month of
of November 2021 they went up marginally
2.6% in comparison to November 2020
that's you know that's not really a
whole lot of a of a difference that
just tells us that that's really
probably just a normal Market trend is
kind of what I would assume but I will
remind you in April May and June new
listings were up in double digits in
comp comparison to that month of the
prior year so in April we had new
listings up
19.4% in May
14.4% in June
13.1% so those months that was when
the market got nutty and it has it
has slowed down seasonally but really
the past let's see here the past five
months really we've seen it go back down
into single digit range in terms of
increases of new listings year on year I
I think that that is pretty normal but
until those numbers really start to go
up higher we're going to continue to see
inventory levels so hover around the
low numbers where they are so the fact
that new listings were only up 2.6% year
on year that's not a great sign and from
the standpoint of the Slowdown of the
market in order for the market to slow
down we're going to have to see those
new listings go up or we're going to
have to see buyers drop out at the
moment we we haven't seen the trend of
buyers dropping out in Mass although
there have been some anecdotal instances
of it generally speaking the the
demand has remained strong pending
sales this is one that is very
inaccurate usually for for the
current months so I'm not going to look
at the pending sales for the month of
November it's always very low for some
reason and I don't know why I don't know
why gjr can't figure out how to get that
that data accurate they revise it in
the next month so when in January
when they come out with the stats for
the entire year then November's number
will be corrected but we can look at
the previous months which this is an
interesting little tidbit is that we had
actually seen year on-ear
four straight months of lower pending
sales compared to 2020 so March April
and May again they were nutty 34% for
the month of March year on-year pending
sales up versus 2020 it was up
34% I don't I don't know let's see if
that was the highest of all time yes I
that was I'm looking at the chart
that was the highest all time okay
34% in in terms of how they how they
tracked this
the month of April
30.6% and then the month of May it
dropped down to
10.2% and and again this is what it was
up year onye in comparison to the month
in in 2020 well then after that we
started to see negatives so June 20 21
was down 6.6% pending sales versus the
prior year July down 6.3% versus the
prior year August down 3.6% versus the
prior year September down 7.9% versus
the prior year well then October we saw
an uptick back again it went up
2.1% versus October of
2020 so that's a a very interesting
Trend that we saw even though we had had
several months of I don't want to say
contraction but several months of of
things just being down in comparison
to the previous year imp pending sales
October it started to tick back up I
don't know what that means we'll have to
we'll have to monitor that situation
closely closed sales and I'm just
kind of going down here in order closed
sales in October were down
5.8% but then ticked back up and this is
usually a reliable number ticked back up
158 15.8% year onye for the month of
November so closed sales in November
went honestly way high that was that's
the highest year-on-year growth that
we've seen for a month since May of this
year and as you know we already
indicated May of this year was insane
so so that leads us to all of that leads
me to believe that really in general and
I've experienced this personally this
fall has been a busier fall than than we
normally have it's been a busier fall
season than we would normally expect
I'm looking at days on market for the
month of November 23 days on Market
again that's an insane number that is
calculated here's the GG's description
the average number of days between when
a property is listed and when an offer
is accepted in a given month so on
average a home is on the market without
a contract for the month of November for
23 days before it goes under contract
that probably sounds like an eternity to
some of you you know you keep hearing
all about all these multiple offer
situations and whatnot but historically
that is an insanely low number number
in comparison to November of 2020 which
was an insanely low number November
2020 was 39 days and so November 21
23 days again we are at the the
bottom of the chart I'm I'm looking at
the chart here for historical days on
Market until sale by
month the chart is at the very bottom
here hovering in the in the low 20s it
has never been that low since they have
tracked this in the
GG for comparison at the very worst
part of the Great Recession it was over
120 days so we are a quarter of of
what it was during the Great Recession
obviously we never want to go back to
what we experienced back then when
the housing market completely crashed
now out of everything now we're going to
start to get into some of the more
interesting data points and this is
where this is the the number out of
everything that kind of Pops off the
chart the median sales price for the
month of November is up
17.3% year on-year that is the highest
percent for one month of growth out of
the entire year and so that's really
again the most surprising number on here
and add
additionally that is it it's also the
highest median sales price of the year
which we wouldn't nor not we wouldn't
necessarily expect for the month of
November even if November year onye has
grown disproportionately to the other
months we would still kind of expect the
the number the actual median sales price
to still be lower to than some of the
other months but we're not seeing that
even though this is not considered
November is not considered a a typical
heavy real estate month it just it
bucked the trends the median sales price
for the month of November was
$285,000 up from
$243,000 just a year ago we have
talked about this the the concerning
trend of housing affordability in the
area and and this like I said that
number just jumps off the page I'm
I'm shocked at that I I don't know if
that's an anomaly obviously prices
going up is not an anomaly but I'm I'm
wondering if we're going to see perhaps
a month or two of that median sales
price dip down a little bit in December
January I I don't know I don't know what
to expect I I no longer I no longer
understand I don't want to say I no
longer understand where the market is
going but I no longer can predict
exactly how high the market can can
continue to climb but that's a a
17.3% change year on-year the
entire 12month change was about a
12.7% change so we're seeing a little
more than
1% appreciation per month by and
large in the market now that's the
entire Market Al together so obviously
some areas is and some homes are growing
at a much faster Pace than
that others are at a slower Pace than
that so on average we're seeing about
1% per month but some markets are seeing
and some houses are seeing 2 3% per
month if you have a question about
the value of your house again always
reach out to me I'm happy to discuss
that with you guys I'm I'm usually
pretty good at at assessing those things
um
so yes so the highest ever median
sales price we hit in November of
285 and and as I've said before the
reason why we look at median price
versus average price and and I'll tell
you what the average was the average was
334 which is a a 12.6% increase year-
on-ear for the month of November I I
like to look at median versus average
price because those average prices can
be skewed by really cheap homes or by
really expensive homes but looking at
the median which is the very middle
number that tells you okay this is the
number right smack in the middle and
that's usually the the best indicator of
of what homes average homes are selling
for in this
market now we had if if we move on to
the percent of list price received which
is a little bit of a a little bit of a
skewed number and that is because
when
the ggr does this and I'm I I wish that
they had another metric in here to to do
this a different way but in essence they
look at the last list price that a home
was listed for and this could be after
price
changes and so this isn't looking at
what the house was originally listed for
which would be a useful data point right
this is looking at what the last after
any price changes what the last list
price was and then compares that price
to what the home finally ended up
selling for what the sold price was and
then tells us what the percent was so
it's not a super useful data point just
in and of itself but the trend looking
at the trend is useful and so prior
to this year and we talked about this
before we had never seen that number go
over
100% it had been hovering really for
several years now in the 98% range for
really since I've been a realtor it had
been in the 98% range and then in April
of this year it hit 100% for the for the
very first time and that sustained all
the way through October October of this
year it it dipped to
99.9% just dipped right below that 100%
number in November it popped right back
up to 100.1% so we we're back over over
100% what that means is right now or at
least for the month of November the
average sale was slightly more than the
average list price
now I I want to point out and I want
to Pat myself on the back a little bit
which was a few months ago I said that
October is typically the best one of the
better I I don't remember exactly how I
phrased it but I said it's one of the
better months to buy from the standpoint
of there being greater Supply than
demand like disproportionate Supply
versus the demand and that's indicated
here the fact that we had the lowest
since the market went nutty in in
April October had the lowest percent of
list price received again it's not
substantially lower than the other
months but the fact that it popped back
up in November tells us that October
that that reinforces what I say what I
said that October generally speaking is
a pretty good month to buy real estate
there there can be some quote unquote
Bargains out there if you know what
you're looking for and you know what
you're
doing housing affordability Index
this is the next category as I go
through GJ's Market stats we've
talked about this number quite a bit
it it dipped below 100 for the first
time in 2020 and and that was really a a
a noteworthy time a noteworthy marker
and I'm just going to read the
description we've been we've been
through this before but it's easy to
forget it says the index measures
housing affordability for the region for
example an index of 120 means the median
household income is 120% of what is
necessary to qualify for the median
priced home under prevailing interest
rates a higher number
means greater
affordability okay so when it's 100 that
means the median household income is
100% of what is necessary to qualify for
a median priced home so that's right
on the line of okay the normal family
can afford the average home or the
average family from from an income
perspective can afford the average home
well it's been under 100 it it dipped
under 100 in August of 2020 for the
first time it and it's basically been
under at or under 100 ever since and
it's just kept going down every year
and because we saw that median home
price in November jump up to 285 that
caused housing affordability to again
reach set another record of 83 so the
median household income is only 83%
of what is necessary to qualify for a
medipriced home
as the the current market is so
families are that are just you know
making an average income for this area
they are getting squeezed out that's
just the reality of the situation it's
it's a sad thing to to look at but I'm
going to be doing an episode here in the
future that compares appreciation of
rents in comparison to appreciation of
home prices and I think what we're going
to see is probably a lot more people
that are in that average income level if
they realize that they just can't afford
what's out there they're probably going
to end up renting and some of the data
for renting isn't as bad as you might
think it would be so we'll talk about
that in a future episode I think I'm
going to do that one in in two
weeks
inventory of homes for sale that
was that's been down dramatically for a
while now I I think this might be one
that is kind of inaccurate it it said
was only down 8% for the month of for
the month of November I'm I'm not sure
if that's accurate or not we we'll have
to see next month but the month's
supply of inventory it has been under
two months all year long even with the
inaccuracies that that I perceive are in
this it's still showing the month of
November was
1.9 the month supply of inventory was
1.9 really the market seems to be
healthiest when that number is above
three and and by healthy obviously
that's that can be measured a few
different ways but me as a realtor I
think about it as a healthy Market as
being a market where people can buy and
sell without it just being insanely
intense as long as that number is
below three it's a Market that is
insanely intense and that goes for
Sellers as well it's an intense sellers
Market sellers are stressed out right
now and buyers are are really
stressed out right now now that
number if it's accurate it matches last
year's number last year the month of
November was 1.9 months of of of
inventory and so just a reminder
the inventory of homes for sale this is
the description it's the inventory of
homes for sale at the end of a given
month divided by the average monthly
pending sales from the past 12 months
so it's not a perfect number but again
notating the trend that would
actually be the highest number of the
year if it's accurate we'll see I'm
I'm skeptical that it is accurate
we'll have to follow back on on
follow back up on that later that being
said it's still very very low very very
very very much a sellers Market here
um
there's a lot of other a lot of other
things that that we could could get into
the weeds here on in terms of in
terms of the numbers that are in here I
think by and large we can take away
that it it's the market hasn't changed
outside of just normal seasonal changes
and and I've been harping on this for a
long time people I remember back in
August some people started to say ooh
the market is slowing down some some
very well-known Realtors out there were
saying ooh the market is slowing down it
was just like yes the market slows down
in August and September and October and
November and December and then starts to
creep back up in January that is exactly
what it's supposed to do it's not
supposed to keep building and building
and building and building I mean imagine
if we're in the month of December and
everything is just as nutty as it was in
May there is no way that the market
could sustain that no way and honestly
us as Realtors we couldn't we couldn't
do business doing that I mean our
buyer clients we're having to look at
you know in some cases 15 20 30 houses
before we're able to get them under
contract it's exhausting for everyone so
that's that's just something to keep in
mind yes we we have seen the normal
seasonal slowdown that's great all
the other indicators are that nothing
has actually truly slowed down we are
just
we are seeing fewer buyers just as we
are seeing fewer sellers it's kind of
the trend is kind of going together
supply and demand is still staying
basically at the same Pace and and if
anything it's it's tilting even more in
the direction of sellers just based on
that median sales price I mean that that
like I said that number just pops off
the page and it is just kind of shocking
and that's not a number on I'm happy
about I've heard some people say
Realtors love the fact the market is
growing this much I mean there is some
truth to that you know a lot of us have
had good years in real estate but we
don't like it when when you know our
our clients that we've had that you know
typically could buy nice homes for
$225,000 or whatever now just they can't
afford anything we certainly do not
get any joy out of that we like to
see people to be able to afford homes
and and and it's reaching a point now
where a lot of people are just not going
to be able to afford to purchase a nice
home anymore and we'll have to see if
if if things happen to fix that we've
got some major issues with our County
Council in Greenville it's kind of a
mess they the the people in County
Council I'm concerned are making
decisions that are going to impact
housing affordability in negative ways
because they have no idea what they're
doing several of the people in the
councils seem seem to be that way and
so this will be something that we have
to continue to Monitor and continue to
see what happens but all in all we
are
seeing these trends that indicate that
unless probably at this point the
only thing that that I could really see
that will cause things to cool off and
and when I say cool off I don't mean
prices going down I just mean things not
being quite quite as feverish as if
mortgage rates start to go up the FED
has indicated due to inflation
concerns that that is exactly what is
going to happen that they are going to
to Tinker with the market as they are
known for doing and with the end
result being that mortgage rates will go
up that should cause a little bit of a
coold Down but remember mortgage rates
are still historically low I mean even
if they go up a a a let's say half a
percentage point that would still be
historically extremely low so these
are all things to keep in mind I I
think that it's still going to be a very
strong sellers Market going into 2022
from from all indicators everything that
I see but we'll have to to keep
watching what happens with Co
with mortgage rates with supply chain
issues with new home construction with
the local government doing the inan
things that that they're doing in the in
the council we have to keep track of
all of these things because they all
have an impact on us here
locally hopefully that was
informative hopefully that gives you a
little bit of a snapshot of the market
if you guys have any questions any
concerns let me know I am here all my
contact information is in the show notes
if you don't mind to hit that fivestar
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I'd appreciate it I hope you guys have a
great rest of the week enjoy the
holidays we're entering that awesome
season that awesome holiday season take
some time to yourself drink a little
eggnog do all those things and we'll be
back next week with some more content
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