Tom: Hello everyone.

And welcome into another edition of the Talking Puck Podcast.

Tom Callahan Mike Haynes here with you.

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And Mike, this is a topic we've been kind of batting around for a couple of

weeks, but now I feel like we really have to talk about it because Alex

Ovechkin is now getting to a point.

And honestly, I was not sold on this.

And, but now that I'm starting to do some of the math, I'm beginning to

maybe inch, a little closer to buying into the possibility that Alex Ovechkin

could surpass Wayne Gretzky as the NHLs all-time leading goal scorer.

I know that you've brought this up from time to time.

I understand looking at it and you know, what, if he hadn't had the season he's

having right now, he's has, um, he's at 26 goals right now, tied for the league lead.

He's tired for the league lead in points and he's played essentially half the year.

He can get to 50 goals.

If he does get to 50 goals, he'll be 80 something ish, maybe 90 goals away, two

more 45 goal seasons, and he's there.

And.

That's a crazy realization to me, but all right, convince me again.

I got my hand in my wallet.

Now make me take the money out and buy that Alex Ovechkin

is going to make this happen.

Mike: Well, my interest was peaked when I read the article that Bruce

Boudreau, the new coach for Vancouver, who coached Ovechkin in Washington

for several years, said that he thinks that it's going to happen.

And Boudreau, well, he knows, Ovechkin knows, certainly knows the game.

Been around a long time.

Seen it all.

If he believes it, that's at least enough for me to think.

Well, could that really happen?

And, you know, Ovechkin, unfortunately for him, he's lost time through

lockouts through strikes a whole season was lost because of a lockout.

So he really is a, you know, had a tougher time of it than Gretzky.

And then a couple other things you put into it, how much better the

goaltending is now tougher to score goals.

And the other thing is Ovechkin tough, tough guy.

With Gretzky had a lot of protection, there were, there were, you know,

he had his McSorley's and, and, uh, Semenko's guys who were going, Hey,

you're not even going to touch this guy.

He's going to get to do whatever he wants on the ice.

No one gets to touch him Ovechkin doesn't have that.

And the other thing is, you know, he's setting up in that face

off circle on the power play.

You just know he's going to be there.

How in the world does he scores goals in there?

I just think.

Well, Gretzky would have to be considered the greatest player ever.

I'm ready.

I can't believe.

I'm saying this Tom I'm ready to say Ovechkin is the greatest goal

scorer in the history of the NHL.

And as we are, as we are talking about this, what is the 138 behind?

Gretzky is that right?

Tom: Uh, yes, he's at ... So as of our taping, he sits at 756 goals.

Mike: Okay.

So he will come up short of 800.

Now, next to you next.

I mean, the guy who is second behind Gretzky what is, is Howe right.

At 801 . Okay.

So.

I don't think, I don't think Ovechkin, uh, this year it's going

to get to 800, but oh man here's...

. But can I just say this?

The one thing that might prevent me from taking your money out of your

wallet is I don't know what it is.

I've seen it so many times about goal scorers Tom when it stops, it stops.

Tom: Right?

Mike: It's it's you don't know why the guys are still doing the same things.

They're still trying.

They're still working.

They're still practicing hard everyday.

I don't know what it is about goal scoring, but when it dries up, it is done.

So that's the only thing I can say is if he stays healthy, And, and,

and wants to break this record.

And by all appearances, he does, he's determined to do it, but

boy, that goal scoring dries up.

That that to me is the only reason he's not going to be able to do it.

Tom: Here's some, uh, some interesting numbers kind of behind this Mike as I look

Jagr is 10 goals in front of him at 7 66.

Uh, so he's, he's gonna pass Jagr this year, but.

Jagr did that in 1,733 games were Ovechkin is 1,236 games.

Mike: Wow.

Tom: And now you have Gordie Howe at 801, 1767 games played

Gretzky's 8 94, came in 1,487 games.

So that's about 250 games, more, 2 51 to be exact.

than Ovechkin has played.

Can Alex Ovechkin score 140 goals in 250 games?

Could he even match Gretzky's pace of scoring.

That is another interesting question to me.

No doubt when he, when he finishes, even if he doesn't quite catch Gretzky, but is

in front of Howe he will have done so in far less games, I don't know that Ovechkin

is going to play another 500 games.

Uh, I don't know if he gets in that 1700 neighborhood,

but if he, if he did then perhaps, you know, if he's, he's driven to play

that long, he stays healthy, whatever.

Um, Hey, uh, you know, he could, he could pass Gretzky by a decent amount,

uh, and really maybe get to 900, 950 who knows, but just to be able to over the

next 250 games, even to match Gretzky's pace, even to be close to Gretzky's pace.

The only other guy who really did it that way was Brett Hull and I know we

don't talk about Hull a lot, but another guy who would set up shop on the far

dot on the power play, and you just feed him and you knew he was there, but man,

people had a hard time stopping him.

Mike: He was unbelievable.

He would get down so low.

And when he shot that and the stick would seem to really bend it, it was remarkable.

All right, let's look at it this way.

If you have 80, let's say 80 games, a season.

So three seasons that's 240 games.

Um, so that gets him close to Gretzky's.

Uh, the amount of games played close.

Right?

Right.

So if you're, if, if this point you think he's going to get to 50, if

he stays healthy, he's got a chance for 50 this year, but you have to

think as you get older, you would think as you're getting he's 36 now.

So now we're looking at the next three seasons 37, 38 39.

If he, at the end of this season, if you let's say you are these 138 behind,

let's say he does 25, uh, more goals.

Um, so that boy he's then had these he'd have to ... he'd have

to have about 40 goals a season for the next three to pass Gretzky

Tom: I think ... Well, well, here's the, so if he score, so if he ends up, so

let's try to use some round numbers just to make it math a little easier on us.

So he's at 7 56 right now.

He probably can pack another 25 on there.

So let's just put him at 780 okay.

So 7- 80 at the end of this season and he needs to get to 8 94.

So that would put him 114 away from Gretzky.

Mike: Right.

That's what I'm saying.

So about 40, about 40, about 40.

Just about to get to 900, we're thinking 40 goals, a game

for the next three seasons.

Tom: Yeah.

And if he has, and it's interesting.

I was looking at his career stats, Mike, here's the

interesting thing about Ovechkin.

He has gone into dips.

At varying times, he started out great.

His first, uh, five years, he only had one campaign under 50 goals.

Then he goes three straight years of scoring in the thirties.

Then he goes three straight years of 50 plus.

Then he goes down to 33, up to 49.

So he's kind of been all over.

Um, and this year he's back on a pace where.

It looks like he's on a bit of an uptick, but that's the interesting thing

about Ovechkin is if he drops into the thirties for the next three years,

then he has to play a fourth and maybe even a fifth season to accomplish this.

And now we're putting him 40, 41 and drive and determination aside,

physical health is going to come into the equation at some point.

Mike: Yeah.

and he...

And he plays physical, he's a guy that, you know, the wear and

tear on the body it's a lot of games, the way that he plays.

Boy, I have to think, boy, boy, this is tough.

Whether or not he can do it.

And do you want him to, do you think the league, I mean, time just

moves on players records are broken.

Is it good for the league if he breaks this record?

I mean, Gretzky is held on such a high pedestal in this league.

Um, is it good?

Is, is Ovechkin loved, uh, admired, like Gretzky was, will people be happy besides

Capitals fans see this record broken?

Tom: I think I, okay.

So my opinion, first of all, is that the league 100% wants him to break the record.

Because this generation needs that player, that epic generational player, Crosby.

I mean, bless him incredibly talented player, but man, he's battled injuries

and who knows, much like Mario Lemieux, I don't think we'll ever

know what Crosby could have been.

Uh, we've seen the brilliance just like we saw from Lemieux

but his health has not held.

I think looking at Ovechkin, the NHL wants this generation of fans to have

someone that they can, you know, kind of catch fire about if you will, for

the game, because I think that player, right, I think they wanted that player

to be McDavid, but the problem is when you're in Edmonton and you're losing

all the time, the rest of the league is not as much paying attention.

Kids need somebody who is.

The, the Babe Ruth of their era to look up to if you will.

And I think that they're trying to make Ovechkin that guy and he wants to be

that guy, furthermore, um, he's gotten much more media friendly, uh, then even

when you know you and I, um, I don't know if you've really tried to ever do a

sit-down with this guy, but I have, uh, you know, and it's, it's, it's tough.

He's kinda a little, he was a little grumbly a little curmudgeonly we're

talking about 10 years ago now, but I think he's way better than

that with the media now, because he understands, a little bit more of

this is this is who he needs to be.

Mike: Interesting.

Oh, you know, I think the league would want this because

it's, it's great publicity.

And especially as he's get, if he, if he gets there and he's getting closer and

closer boy who isn't going to be watching every game, uh, it becomes exciting to see

if he's gonna going to get that record.

It's still asking a lot so I'm trying to get 40 goals in three seasons average,

on average, if he gets another 25 this year, um, that's tough at that age.

That's hard.

That's hard.

And can he continue to can he play, you know until he's 40.

And what kind of production are you getting at that point?

It, uh, you know what, I'm changing my mind.

He's not going to do it.

Tom: Wow!

Mike: I'm not saying I don't want it.

I do.

I think it'd be thrilling thrilling, to be watching the games.

If he gets within five, just you can't wait until it's

pussy at the end of a season.

You're just, you're just tuning into every dime.

He's playing, trying to see if he scores.

You'd be, you'd be it's like the Joe DiMaggio when he was on his 56 game

hitting streak, you know, every, the whole world stopped, you know, what here,

if he had, he got that hit that day.

Uh, but I think, I think it's too much.

I, I just think he, I think he's scoring is going to dry up

and he's not going to make it.

Tom: Wow.

Okay.

You heard it here first Mike has changed his mind.

Here's what I'm going to do, Mike.

I'm looking at this and, oh man.

I'm so torn right now.

You know what, Mike, here's the thing throughout, throughout our conversation,

I'm more convinced I think that he's going to do it because he hasn't missed.

Uh, he is, uh, he said some injuries, but he hasn't missed a ton of time.

And even kind of looking at these, you know, these weird little half seasons

we've had lately, um, he had 48 goals in 68 games in the 19-20 season.

That's insane.

He almost scored 50 in that short season, that weird little bubble year.

Uh, and then the last year before where we had a full season, he

had 51 goals and 81 games, so.

And the full seasons I'm looking at going all the way, but even the strike shortened

year of 12, 13, he played all 48 games.

He has not had a significant amount of missed time, really ever.

So.

I think, I think I'm going to say Ovechkin does it.

It's funny how we both changed our minds in the course of this podcast.

Mike: I know, I know the more I thought about it now, I don't think it's going to

happen, but it sure will be fun to watch.

Tom: Absolutely.

Absolutely.

And you know what I do think the league really does want it to happen just again

for the fans of this generation and the coming generation, the young kids right

now, who their, their dads or their grandparents can take them to a game.

Stay, watch this guy.

He's one of the greatest ever of all time.

Mike: Yeah, no, without a doubt.

And, uh, boy, just, I hope he gets close and then we can have that thrill

of seeing if he can do it or not.

You're asking a lot and you're asking him to do it, to break a

record of an icon in the league.

Uh, Boy boy, if he does, with everything that he has to go through with how good

the goalies are just how tough it is to score with the focus on him too.

Cause every time, you know, if you're planning your strategy,

you want to stop him from scoring, especially in those power plays.

And you know, so there are all kinds of plans to get him to stop

scoring for him to continue to do it.

Just shows how great he is.

... Tom: And you know what, here's the one other analogy I'll draw back to baseball

is after the baseball strike and the labor strife and millions of fans, including me,

I left, I said, that's enough baseball.

I'm sick of you, greedy players.

But I got drawn back in by the Maguire Sosa home run drama.

Ovechkin chasing down Gretzky would do the same thing for hockey.

It would draw fans who have left back to the game.

They would be watching tuning in, especially as he got close every

night to see if he could do it.

I think it would be good for the game.

Mike: I agree.

It would be good for the game.

I just don't know if, uh, at that age, uh, if you can, and again, I've seen

it happen too many times where it just dries up, you still working as hard.

You're still doing everything that you've done to produce those goals, but whatever

reason it just, they just stop going in..

And then the other thing is he sure he has a, he's been healthy for most

of his career, but that's not to say, as you get closer to 40, that your

body starts breaking down a little bit and maybe there's some injuries.

Tom: Yeah.

Yeah, absolutely.

Well, we haven't solved anything here.

Uh, but we do know.

Yeah, number one, Mike and I have flip-flopped, which I don't think

has ever happened on a podcast.

We, we never over the course of our discussion, decided to take

the other side we started with.

Um, but that's, that's why we do this.

This is fun.

So, uh, we enjoy it and, and, uh, you know what, Mike, and I would

love it if you'd follow the podcast.

If you would subscribe, follow, uh, wherever you get your podcasts,

we appreciate you being here.

Follow us on Twitter.

I'm at Callahan on air.

He's at Buster, the dog 33.

And of course we are live 9:00 PM Eastern time.

Every Sunday night, we're Talking Puck TV on YouTube and on Twitch.

All right, everybody.

Thanks for joining us.

Let us know what you think.

If Ovechkin is ever going to break that record.

We'll talk to you next time.