Hello everyone and Welcome to another
episode of Selling Greenville your
favorite real estate podcast here in the
greater Greenville area of South
Carolina and I am your host as always
Stan McCune realtor right here in the
upstate in Greenville in technically
Greer and you have come to the right
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out to me there all right today I
want to talk about how Greenville is
comparing to some other major Metro
areas when it comes to appreciation
we've talked about this this is the hot
button topic right I try to stay
relevant for you guys my most listened
to episode if last I checked at least
actually my most multiple episodes
that were the most listened to were ones
where I directly address the pandemic
while we were in the pandemic and you
could argue we still are in the pandemic
I that's not the point that I'm
trying to make but when we were in
lockdown you know absolute chaos mode
with a Pandemic those episodes were were
relevant to people a lot of people
listen to those so I try to keep on
the crest of the wave in terms of the
data that I'm providing you guys and
today I want to talk about Greenville
in comparison or in contrast to other
markets because this is an interesting
topic everyone is talking about okay
there's this great shuffling that's
happening and and Greenville is kind
of right in the middle of all of that
60 Minutes did a special on this and and
they briefly highlighted
Greenville and so we had people coming
from all over the country coming to
Greenville and I've experienced this
personally I'm constantly pretty much
weekly getting contacted by people
that are looking to potentially move to
Greenville from out of state and so
that's great but what is causing a lot
of consternation amongst people is okay
so prices are going way up in Greenville
right we know this we've talked about
this in in other episodes prices are
going way up and people are moving here
from other parts of the country and
they're bringing cash and they're
they're you know being aggressive
they're looking to to purchase you
know investment properties as well
perhaps all of this type of stuff going
on is that going to cause Greenville to
ultimately become just way more
expensive than than it should be in
comparison to the rest of the country is
it a situation where actually Greenville
will soon be no longer affordable in
comparison to these areas that people
are moving
from now I have looked at data just over
the the months and years of other
markets and seeing what they've done
during the pandemic and I knew
anecdotally that that was not true at
least in comparison to some of the major
Metro areas and I have some theories on
on why that is but I wanted to actually
get into the data and actually make sure
that what I anecdotally think is
actually supported by real data
particularly now that that we pretty
much have the data on on home
values what happened with with home
values and appreciation over the course
of
2021 so I have some data from from
bizjournals.com they have some really
great data I've got some other data
from a source that let's see here
what is the
source
apologize the source is the
AEI housing center and then I have some
data I'm cross referencing the greater
Greenville Association of Realtors
Market stats for the month of January of
this year where then we can look at what
happened basically all of last year I'm
C cross referencing all of this data
which is the best data that I've been
able to find that kind of
discusses what is happening Nationwide
in the market let's start with
Greenville and and again to remind you
when we talk about Greenville when we're
looking at these GG Market stats we're
looking at not just Greenville not even
just Greenville County right because
this is what is being in the Greenville
MLS well the Greenville MLS is Far and
Away the largest mls in this area but
there are other mls's there's
Spartanburg there's Greenwood there
is Western Upstate which is kind of like
Anderson Pickins all of that
and and there are a few other
little ones here and there and so
what happens is some people that are in
their small little mls's will only Post
in there but then you get the people
that are only in Greenville MLS or just
don't think that they need to use for
instance Spartanburg MLS they're just
going to plug you know a Spartanburg
listing into into Greenville and so
long story short the majority of
listings end up in Greenville regardless
of whether it's actually Greenville
County or not and there are a handful
that don't end up in Greenville that end
up in Spartanburg or in Western Upstate
or in Greenwood etc etc so these stats
are not specifically Greenville County
these are again the greater Greenville
area which could include parts of Pickin
County aone County Spartanburg County
Greenwood County Anderson County etc etc
you guys get the
point so it's not
necessarily Apples to Apples in
comparison is the point that I'm making
here we're looking at the greater
Greenville area but remember I did a
podcast that talks specifically about
individual markets if you want to go
back and listen to that that was a
couple episodes ago we talked about
individual markets in this case because
Greenville is you know Greenville city
is not very big right Greenville city is
I think last I heard like 70 or 75,000
people it's Greenville County it's
the greater Greenville area that really
starts to compare to those bigger Metro
areas I think we're in the the six to
650,000 person range when it comes to
the the Greenville Metro Area
Greenville County and and you know just
around that so that's where we really
start to compete with some of these big
Metro areas and that's really what the
GGA are stats are focused on so even
though it's not Apples to Apples for us
stat statisticians for you engineer
brains out there it is not Apples to
Apples but I think it's a closer
comparison than it would be if I just
compare the City of Greenville to all
these other cities and the City of
Greenville is so unique in comparison to
the county I think looking at the entire
area is better okay all of that to say
what we saw in the greater Greenville
area for the month of 2021 this is easy
to remember because Greenville ended up
experiencing right about 211%
appreciation so in 2021 we saw the
median sales price go up roughly
21% as opposed to what it was at the end
of 2020 so 21% keep that number in the
back of your mind now here's some trivia
for you what do you think was the
market not in Greenville but Nation
Nationwide Nationwide what am I saying
Nationwide that saw the greatest
appreciation in the US okay I'll give
you a second to think about that it
makes a lot of sense it's not going to
surprise you because there have been a
lot of people if you listen to Joe
Rogan for instance he's talked about
this a lot that it's Austin Texas Austin
Texas in 2021 saw the greatest year-
on-year
appreciation of year-over-year
appreciation of
44.6% that is more than double what the
state of South car or what the the area
of Greenville experienced more than
double
44.6% it went from 377,000 in 2020 to
545,000 in 2021 we know exactly
why that happened and that was because
of all the disaffected people from
California that decided that they
didn't like you know how much they were
getting taxed in California they decided
to move to Texas and to start their own
kind of little Silicon Valley Community
there in the Austin area Austin 44%
second place and and I'm I know more
about Austin because Austin has been
kind of under the Limelight I I know
more about Austin than a lot of these
other areas so I'm not going to give
commentary on each area I'm just going
to kind of run through some of these
second place place and this is per
bizjournals.com Fort Meyers Florida went
up from 258 to 351 that is
35.8% appreciation another Florida
location north Northport
Sarasota brenon went up from 302 to
409 that's really close
35.5% appreciation Boise Idaho this is
one that I've heard a lot about
recently 33% that went from 376 to 5
501 another one Phoenix Arizona went
from 324 to 427 that's
31.8% Ogden Utah went from 374 to 491
that's
31% and now we get to the southeast
finally this is this is the first one in
the Southeast that makes the list
interestingly it's number seven it's
well unless you count Florida I do not
count Florida as a Southeast Florida is
like its own Little Country you know
that there an anomaly in comparison to
the rest of the southeast in so many
ways Raleigh North Carolina went up
from 305 to 3.99 that's a
30.7% increase number eight is Provo
Utah went from 415 to 539 that's a
29.8% increase Tampa went from 252 to
327 that's a
29.7% increase then we get our third or
fourth rather from Florida four out of
the top 10 are Florida unsurprisingly
people love Florida no income tax
great weather beaches all those things
Daytona Beach went from 239 to 307
that's a
28.5% increase number 11 is Lakeland
Florida that one is 28% I'm not going
to get into all the weeds here number 12
is Spokane number 13 Melbourne Florida
number 14 Jacksonville Florida number 15
another one in Utah Salt Lake City
and now we start to get where we're
starting get closer to Greenville here's
number 16 on the list is Atlanta Atlanta
went from 265 to 338 that's a 27 4%
increase Nashville also somewhat
comparable to Greenville in some ways
in terms of the demographic in terms of
you know location wise in terms of kind
of the way the city is made made out in
some ways obviously it's it's much
bigger than Greenville but
309 in the end of 2020 up to
393,000 the end of 2021 that's a
27.1% change number 18 is Charlotte okay
here we go we're getting really close to
Greenville now Charlotte still had
greater appreciation than Greenville
went from 264 to 336 very interesting
right that's a that's an increase of
26.9% followed by Las Vegas
Knoxville Tennesse Riverside
California Stockton
California Colorado Spring Springs
Colorado Dallas Fort Worth Tucson San
Diego
Orlando Charleston South Carolina
Charleston South Carolina very close to
Greenville went up from 297 to 366
that's a
23.3% change then we have Denver
Miami and that rounds out the top 30
Greenville and and Miami number 30 on
the list was
22.3% so what does all of that mean I
just threw a lot of data at you it means
that Greenville is not only still very
affordable but I believe it should also
continue to remain more affordable in
comparison to these major Metro areas
because it's not keeping up with those
areas in terms of sales price
appreciation now what's the reason for
that right that might seem
counterintuitive that an area like you
know Stockton California for instance is
appreciating at a quicker level than
Greenville is it might be
counterintuitive that you know even
Miami in in some ways is experiencing
still greater sales price
appreciation than the greater
Greenville area is and I think that this
is the reason I think generally speaking
from what I've heard and I know that
it's not trending in the right direction
but up to this point Greenville has been
more developed friendly than a lot of
these other areas and so what that means
is we allow developers to develop
more cheaply than if they were to go
into for instance Charleston or for
instance Miami or for instance these
other areas and so what that means is
more developers are willing to build
housing in this area which results in
inventory levels not being as low as
they are in some of the areas that I
just mentioned which then helps for
for things to not appreciate at such a
dramatic level as they have in different
parts of the country right so as long as
we have more developers building more
houses that should help to keep
appreciation somewhat under control now
I still I I understand
21% appreciation that that what it
was was essentially an increase from 240
to what did we end with at the end
of this year it went from
essentially 240 to
287 that is a huge huge increase
for for one year and and those
numbers aren't exact but it it's roughly
speaking that was that was what it ended
up being around 20 to 21%
depending on depending on what
numbers you look at I got that 21%
number from another fact sheet I was
looking at that number 240 in comparison
to 287 is closer to 20% U but regardless
you see the trend that Greenville is
still stay it's not necessarily staying
affordable per se because we've
looked at the housing affordability
index that's going down but again
comparing it to these other areas that
people are moving from it's still
remaining more affordable than those
areas and I reference the the months
of inventory being a big aspect of that
and yes that is a it's a really big
aspect of that because ultimately
there is a direct link a direct tie
between how much inventory there is how
many homes are for sale and how
affordable they are because of of simple
supply and demand and right now
demand is high Supply is low prices keep
going up but Supply is higher than in
some other areas so I've referenced
this before but the GG defines
month supply of inventory as the
inventory of homes for sale at the end
of a given month divided by the average
monthly pending sales from the past 12
months okay so that is how they're kind
of determining month supply of inventory
they're I'm I'm not sure sure how if
every Market does it this way but based
on that formula we ended the year with
1.6 months supply of inventory that's
very very low we had been as I've
mentioned before hovering between three
and four months inventory for a really
really long time until the pandemic
really tightened things up so now we're
down in the one and a half months of
inventory range and you know what I
consider to be a comfortable Market is
probably it was a pretty comfortable
Market in that three to four months of
inventory range still a sellers Market
but not a Nutty sellers Market if that
makes sense you would list your house
you would have some showings here and
there after 2 3 4 weeks you'd have
someone that came in with an offer that
was maybe
$5,000 or so below what you listed it
for maybe $10,000 below and then you
split the difference and end up on
$5,000 below and it was just a it was a
a market that was still a very good
Market to to sell in and also not
that terrible of a market to buy in 1.6
months of inventory is obviously a great
Market to sell in but it's still it's an
intense Market to sell in because you
know if you're having you know 15 20 30
showings over a weekend you basically
have to you know stay in a hotel or
something like that so these are all
things to keep in mind where we're at
and and what is driving all of these
different factors and yes if you
compare month supply of inventory versus
other markets it starts to make sense
now the I have another I I
reference the aie housing center data
I'm looking at that as well for month
supply of inventory in these different
markets and and it is very telling
so Seattle Washington is the lowest on
this list I can't even I can't even
exactly see where they're at but it
looks like it's about
maybe
maybe3 months supply3 month supply I
can't imagine what that would be like
that has got to be an awful Market to
try to buy in right now Denver not much
better around 04 San Diego not much
better
maybe 45 so not even not even half
a month supply of inventory finally
we we get to a market that has just over
half a month supply of inventory that's
North Point Florida Columbus Ohio
right there with it just over a half a
month Sacramento California just over a
half a month San Francisco just over
half a month half a month Charlotte
here we go here's why Charlotte has
seen prices go up way more than
Greenville they are just over half a
month's supply of inventory same thing
for Raleigh same thing for Nashville
same thing for Phoenix one thing
that's a little bit of an anomaly on
here is Atlanta is actually very
comparable to Greenville they're in that
1.6 month supply of inventory range
which is maybe
1.7 so that that's a situation where
where they're pretty much neck and neck
but appreciating it's appreciating a
little bit faster in some ways and
you know I I don't know enough about
this Market to offer commentary on that
but that is what we're seeing is that
generally speaking in comparison to
these big markets Greenville has more
Supply more housing and because it has
more housing more Supply it's able to
absorb
the demand it's able to handle the
demand a little bit better than these
other areas and so as a result of that
what we can't expect is we can't expect
prices to continue to go up they will
continue to go up I you know when I I
haven't gotten this question in a while
but I remember you know there have
been multiple times I've gotten the
question from you know perhaps more
novice buyers or more novice investors
when are prices going to go down they
are not going down if they go down we
have had a major major crash a major
recession that has completely blown
everything up what they what we
anticipate they will do is that they
will slow down I would be surprised now
the start we've gotten has surprised me
in terms of how hot it's been but I
would be surprised if prices in at the
end of this year have gone up 20 to 21%
in comparison to what we ended with at
the end of 2021 I do not think that
Greenville is going to see that level of
appreciation I think we will see a
little bit of a Slowdown mortgage rates
going up people you know just kind of
getting tired dropping out of the market
this or that I I think it will slow
down a little bit that's kind of what
I'm anticipating although I certainly
would not put any money on it but
that will probably be something that
happens Market wide and ultimately those
that are moving to Greenville from other
areas or purchasing real estate from
other areas yeah they're they're going
to keep seeing those prices go up but as
you know they live in their home in San
Diego where prices are going up really
quickly they're going to notice as
prices are going up in Greenville it's
not quite as fast so that is something
that I think is is is a helpful piece of
information as we're thinking about the
market not every Market is the same
Greenville the and that's something I
always warn people about when I talk
about General because sometimes we talk
about just general real estate stuff in
this podcast but it's always through a
Greenville lens because I have no idea
what's going on in Sacramento I couldn't
sell you a house in Sacramento I have no
idea what the Market's like over there
now I've got my company has a
relocations department I can connect you
with the realtor in Sacramento if you
need me to but I personally I have no
idea what the market dynamics are over
there Greenville tends to tends to be
a little bit more of a level market
during recessions and slowdowns we tend
to not recess as much as other
markets and during booms like what we're
experiencing now we tend to not boom as
much as other markets it's not the
Greenville real estate market is not as
bullish or as bearish as the other
markets
as the other markets
fluctuate so that's something to keep
in mind I hope that was helpful data
for you guys as you're thinking about
okay what is Greenville like in
comparison to the rest of the country
if you have any questions please let me
know if or if you have any insight or
any data that you want to share on your
specific Market if you're from out of
state I know a lot of my listeners are
please feel free to share that all my
contact information is in the show notes
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stay warm it's chilly this week stay
warm out there stay safe we'll talk to
you next time
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