Hello everyone and Welcome once again to
another episode of Selling Greenville
your favorite real estate podcast here
in the upstate of South Carolina I'm
your host as always Stan McCune realtor
right here in lovely Greenville South
Carolina and all of my contact
information as I always say is in the
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help you out for any of your buyer or
seller needs on the residential side of
things today we are going to have a
brief I think it's an unscripted
episode so I can't promise it'll be
brief if I go on a tangent but I believe
it will be a brief episode covering a
a snapshot a little snippet of the
current market and we do this from time
to time usually once a month although it
kind of varies where we look at just
the statistics generally speaking that
the greater Greenville Association of
Realtors publishes each month that
really gives us a good pulse on the
market here locally now the GG it
usually takes them a couple of weeks to
publish the previous month's stats
and so this is where we find ourselves
I'm recording this in the middle of
February we just received the market
stats for the month of January just a
few days ago so that's why we're
going to be talking about the month of
January even though we're approaching
the latter the latter half we're
already in the latter half of the month
of
February as always most of these
statistics are accurate there are
occasionally a few that are inaccurate
and I will let you know if that's the
case before I read off the statistics
usually I just skip over the ones that
are inaccurate but there sometimes are
EX C to the rule and and what happens
is what I've found is that the
inaccurate ones get redacted the next
month so if you've been a longtime
listener to the Pod you already know
that but just a reminder for the newer
listeners all right so let's Jump Right
In the greater Greenville Association of
Realtors Market stats for the month of
basically through the month through
the end of January starts with new
listings and the numbers for new
listings is really the first number it
it's the first number on on the list but
it's also one of the main numbers that
jumps out from this 19-page document
that I'm looking at here that they
published for the month January's new
listings were
1,271 for the month
1,271 new listings for the month of
January and that compares to January
of 20 21 which had
1,471 new listings what that means is
there is a decrease in new listings year
onye by
13.6% for the month of January now how
does that compare to Prior months if
we're if we're looking at the past year
how does that compare to Prior months
that is the lowest number and this is
usually a very accurate number on here
that is the lowest percent that is or I
should say the the highest decrease of
any month in the past 12 months in
comparison there have only been three
months the past year with with January
being included three months that had a
decrease year on-year in new listings
the other months were March of 2021
which had a 2.6% decrease and
December of 2021 which had a
2.2% decrease in new listings so now we
we have out of the past 12 months
nine of the months had increases in new
listings year on year but the past two
months December and January had two
straight
decreases which were the first
decreases since March of
2021 so what does this mean this
means that we're potentially going to
see some even tighter inventory levels
and and we are seeing this let's just be
honest we are seeing this I mean I
remember some days in January where
we would have like 20 new listings in
the entire Greenville MLS we would have
an entire day of only 20 listings like
that is unheard of this is a a large
robust Market the greater Greenville
area has hundreds of thousands of people
living in it to only have 20 list in a
day is absolutely astonishing but there
were some days where we noticed that
where that was the case and so this
is something that we obviously have to
monitor Now reminder that January is
typically a down month to begin with to
to some extent but that was an
extremely low January in comparison to
other years to other recent years at
least and we did have a a snowstorm
which if you know anything about
Greenville in January snow of any sort
ice of any sort any kind of winter event
just shuts the city down it shuts the
entire area down we do not have the
infrastructure for all of greenville's
great traits we don't have the
infrastructure to handle snow and so
there were essentially like 3 days of
more or less no listings on on those
days no new listings
during the the time period that that
the the city was shut down and we had
that snow I mean really on the roads you
had to be careful on the roads on some
roads for at least a week so that
probably suppressed the market quite a
bit for the month of January but the
fact that we have two straight months of
negative appreciation or negative
increases or decreases in new listings
tells me that I don't think we can blame
the snow
100% on or we can't blame these stats
100% on the snow it does appear for
whatever reason like people are not
have opted not to list their homes
during the winter that is not good if
you remember this is what is driving
prices up it's the fact that we have
such low Supply while still
maintaining
a substantial demand and so as long as
these numbers stay as low as they are
that is not a good sign for home
prices we're going it has a a pending
sales statistic this is one of the ones
that is typically inaccurate for the
current month so for the month of
January I'm not going to pay
attention to the pending sales for the
month of January but I am going to look
at the month of December because that
number should be accurate by now and
that was a pretty low number we saw a
decrease of
11.4% in pending sales for the month of
December that would be the lowest
number in terms of of well that
that's the lowest number in general
since
2019 and I I don't know exactly what to
make of that outside of obviously we
had the fewer homes coming on the market
obviously we had holidays and all of
that perhaps more people decided we're
not going to move over the holidays
combined with what was coming on the
market it just didn't make sense for
them to to go under contract during that
time I know I had several closings
during the month of December so you
know out of the
990 closings that happened which is wild
it's wild to think we have thousands of
Realtors and they're only 990 pending
sales and by the way I I said closings
that's that's not exactly accurate a
pending sales the definition is a
account of properties on which offers
have been accepted in a given month
still incredibly low number
990 for the month of December January
it's saying was
785 that's that's not right I can
tell you right now it did not go that
low we'll have to monitor next month
to see when they redacted what January's
number was
but regardless the month of of
December's pending sales was the lowest
since
2019 closed sales this is usually a
more accurate number closed sales for
the months of December and January were
up December was
11.7% increase year on-ear and January
was a
6.6% increase year on-ear so so
that's a very interesting number we saw
pending sales going down but closed
sales still going up we'll have to see
we'll have to monitor if that is if
that is going to continue or not I know
that I'm seeing just generally speaking
market-wide we hearing that some
brokerages their numbers are down from
the standpoint of actual closings but
they're still doing very well in terms
of of total sales because of of the
amount of appreciation that we're seeing
so it'll be interesting to see if that
continues days on Market until sale this
is the average number of days between
when a property is listed and when an
offer is accepted in a given month we
saw for the month of January a
22.5% decrease in days on Market until
sale so that went from 40 days in
January of
2022 in sorry in January of 2021 all the
way down to 31 days in January of
2022 now that is a a big drop
obviously
22.5% fewer days on Market in in just
one year however that's not as big of a
drop off as we have seen in in quite
some time I mean I'm these stats only go
back to February of last year so I can't
compare I don't have previous year
stats past February but that would
be the I don't know if I should say the
highest or the lowest number that would
be the lowest decrease all right that's
kind of a double negative right so to
make that clear December had a decrease
of 41% year on-ear November had a
decrease also 41% SE October 56%
decrease in days on Market year onye
September 5 5% August 56% July 60% June
56% and and so forth and so on it's not
quite as those numbers aren't quite as
high for the for the winter and
spring months of
2021 but you get the point January's
days on Market did go down because again
it is still very much a seller Market
but in contrast to some of these other
months it it hasn't gone down quite as
dramatically now that's going to happen
and that's not something I don't
necessarily think that's a big
Revelation because guess what we have to
reach a point where eventually you know
there has to be an average of at least
you know probably 14 to 20 days at the
very least because you're always going
to have homes that sit on the market
that are overpriced you have a lot of
people overpricing homes right now
that'll sit on the market for a month or
two that will drag this number
up not you would expect me to say it's
going to drag the number down but but
that drags this number up because for
every house it sells after it's been on
the market for one day there well I
should probably say for every five homes
that sell after having only been on
the market for one day there is you
know a house that's just sitting there
for a month or two or three whatever the
case may be because they just overpriced
it by so much and then when that home
goes under contract it it skews these
statistics ICS all that to be said
last year in February of 2021 we saw a
29.2% decrease in days on Market from 65
days on Market average days on Market in
2020 February 2020 so it went from 65 to
46 all right so probably in February we
will see a decrease from 46 down to 30
or something like that so e like I
said eventually we're going to see these
percent changes not be so dramatic
because we're starting to run into the
point at which we these homes can't sell
any faster at some point they have sold
as quickly as they possibly can it was
two months over two months two years
ago and now it's down to one month or
fewer the lowest number of days on
Market that we've ever had were the
months of July and August where it hit
21 so and and October as well hit 21
as well most of the year was in the 20s
outside of of the winter and spring
months the fact that January here we
are in the winter months and we're
almost in the 20s we're at 31 days for
January of this
year that indicates that we're all
appearances are that we're going to see
most of the Year barring a market shift
most of the year with days on on the
market fewer than 20 so that's something
to monitor all right median sales price
this is obviously a very important
statistic this tells us how things
are getting more expensive you can
kind of think of it as appreciation
that's not exactly accurate but
roughly speaking you can think of of it
in terms of how the market is appreci
appreciating January of 2022 versus
January 21 saw a
17.9% increase in the median sales price
median being the middle number we we've
talked about this in previous shows I'm
not going to get into the weeds but we
look at the median typically a more
accurate number than the than the
average sales price because of the fact
that you know if a several $2 million
home sell in in one month that skews the
average price whereas the median price
gives you a more accurate idea of of
where the Market is so the month of
January saw a
17.9% increase year on-ear it went from
2375
237,000 in January of 2021 all the way
up to
280,000 in January of of this year
2022 that 17.9% increase this is going
to surprise you I think that is the
second largest
increase from the past 12 months with
only
December of just two months ago only
December of 21 being the larger increase
the the three largest increases that I
have on this sheet that I'm looking at
from February of 2021 through January 22
have been the past 3 months November was
a 17.3% year- on-year increase December
a 20% increase year on-ear January a
17.9% increase year your so prices are
not we're not seeing a slow down on
prices that is absolutely not happening
if you're expecting a Slowdown to
happen not saying it won't but the
current trend is not very positive in
that direction and so the median
sales price went down January versus
December December had a 288,000
median sales price November had a
$285,000 sales price
but we have to look at the the overall
trend December was an anomaly normally
December is a is a much slower month
than it was I do find it interesting
that that the these median sales price
increases seem to be kind of tracking
with the the low new listings as well
I wonder if there is a little bit of a
correlation there between as we had
fewer new listings towards WS the end of
last year into the beginning of this
year we saw prices going up that would
make sense again the the supply and
demand thing that's something that that
we need to to keep track of we're
going to skip over average price because
I like I said I don't think that's super
valuable the percentage of list price
received this is one of my least
favorite St statistics to just look at
as a snapshot but if you look at the
entire Trend it can be
helpful the definition of this one is
the percentage found when dividing a
property sales price by its most recent
list price which the reason why I don't
like this this statistic is because
the most recent list price is after
potential price changes okay so a a
price a list price could have been
lowered and at some point in the
process of the listing and they're
basing it off the lowered price not the
not the original price so you you
divide a property sales price by its
most recent list price then taking the
average for all property sold in a given
month not accounting for seller
concessions all right so again looking
at this just as a snapshot is not super
helpful but looking at it in terms of
the entire historical the entire year is
very helpful so the percent of list
price received for the month of January
um
100.1% the average listing received
over list price for what it was listed
at that time how does that compare to
the other months going back to February
20121 only 3 months going back to
February of
2021 had a below 100% number on this
and if you go back to January of of 2021
I can see on the graph that January was
also down for for a long time we were
getting in the range of 8% was kind of
historically what the number was and
then this really took off in April of
last year a well really in March of last
year March of last year went up to
99.5% the first time since the ggr
has tracked this that it had ever gone
up to that
number and then that it had ever
surpassed let's see here I'm just
looking at at the at the numbers here
yes I believe I it looks it appears to
me that that was the first time it had
ever surpassed
99% and then after that it went up to
100% basically for the rest of the year
October it dipped down to
99.9% but in essence since March
of last year sellers are getting what
they have it listed for what they have
their their property listed for or more
and that appears to be continuing into
2022 housing affordability Index this
is the index that measures housing
afford ability for the region for
example an index of 120 means the median
household income is 120% of what is
necessary to qualify for the median
priced home under prevailing interest
rates a higher number means greater
affordability I just read that straight
off the number here so we want this
number to be over 100 right we want
100 on average we want the population
the median household income to be at
least 100% of what is necess NE to
purchase a median priced home that
has been now under 100 since the
beginning of of last
year and right now that that the
beginning of last year was the first
time in history sorry really the it
wasn't the beginning of last year it did
dip below 100 in 2020 a couple of times
but the beginning of last year was
when it finally became the norm okay
housing affordability now that the
median household can no longer afford
the median priced home that became
the normal last year we didn't have a
single month where it was at 100 or
higher it's was 99 in January
and February I think yeah I again I'm
trying to look at January off the graph
February was 99 I think January was
right in that range and now it's all
the way down to 85 for the month of
January now that's a little bit higher
than November December and we can
credit you know the beginning of the
year is a little bit slower so even
though some of these some of these
prices are you know we're still
seeing prices go up it's still January
is still a little bit generally speaking
more affordable month than the others
but that 85 housing affordability index
is still a 15% decrease versus
January of 2021 where it was 100 oh
okay there yeah sorry now I can see it
it actually was right at 100 for the
month of January 2021 so that that was
the last month that we saw quote
unquote affordable housing in terms of
our local market was January exactly a
year ago now it's down to
85 that's not going to change anytime
soon in ventory of homes available
this is one of the ones that for the
current month the month of January is
going to be
inaccurate so we're just going to
look at the trend the trend has been
not good we have we went
from January of 2021 was 1.6 month
supply of inventory we we ideally have
that number above above three you
know is kind of Ideal even that is still
very much a sellers Market but it's a
little bit more comfortable of a
seller's market if our month supply of
inventory is is three or more and
just to read the statistic what it what
it dictates is the inventory of homes
for sale at the end of a given month
divided by the average monthly pending
sales from the last 12 months remember I
said that the pending sales number tends
to be inaccurate that's why the month's
supply of inventory for the current
month also tends to be inaccurate
because those two numbers are tied
together so
we saw it last year go from
1.6 in January of 2021 all the way down
to the lowest month was May of 2021
which was
1.1 month's supply of inventory December
ended with 1 point two month supply of
inventory pretty much every for for the
year we saw a decrease of in general
[Applause]
45.8% actually that that number is is
an ACC it's actually higher than that
cuz that's factoring in January's number
which is which is lower than it
should be so needless to say we are
trending in the wrong direction in terms
of month supply of inventory December it
was 1.2 months which was a decrease from
the 1.7 in December of 2020 that was a
29.4% decrease I would not be shocked
we'll have to see next month when it
comes out but I would not be shocked if
January of this year was the lowest
month on record it I think it will at
least tie the month of May which was
1.1 and I would not be surprised if it
goes to one month or less than one month
again we'll have to track that that
is one of the most important numbers on
here because that
determines what that that tells you what
the Market's doing as it's it's tighter
at the lower that number goes the
tighter the market gets the more of a
sellers Market it is let's look into
briefly here this has actually gone a
little bit longer than I anticipated but
no problem with me if it's no problem
with you
a few just specific things that I
find interesting on the closed sales so
we saw not surprisingly decreases in
closed sales below 250,000 the price
point 150 to 250,000 had a decrease of
99.8% year on year the excuse me the
150,000 and Below nsale saw 25.8%
decrease year on-ear and that's to be
expected because housing is becoming
less affordable there are fewer homes
available in the 250,000 and Below price
point so we're going to continue to
see decreases there the 250 to
$350,000 doll price point saw a
33.5% increase year on-ear no surprise
there I think the the number on here
that pops the most is the $350 to $500
price point saw a
55% 55.3% increase year on-ear so
there's a lot more closing sales now
happening in that 350 to 500 range
even the 500 to 750 range saw a
25.2% increase the 750 to 1 million
range saw 48.6% increase although
there's far fewer far volume that's
actually closing once you get above
500,000 and then a million and above
saw a
38.5% increase again 500 and above the
if you were looking at the graph that
I'm looking at it's it's much lower
numbers than all of these these other
categories but needless to say we're
seeing a lot more closings than
historically for the more expensive
homes and we should continue to see that
here's another number that really pops
out to me that stands out as far as
as far as these closed transactions
so January of 2022 versus January 2021
saw a 6.2% increase in closings on
single family homes that's not a very
high number in comparison to some of
these other numbers that we've been
looking at but condos saw a
34.1% increase year on year it went from
January of 21 14 28 1,428 to January
of 22
1,915 people are buying more
condos than they have in the past and
that is directly related to
affordability
condos and and it's also directly
related to what developers are doing
developers are
realizing that they have to build more
affordable housing as much as possible
the simplest way to do that is to build
condos and so people that used to be
able to afford single family homes are
now having to to buy condos that's
just the the reality of the
situation that's all that I'm going
to look at with with regard to all of
those numbers I'm but I'm going to
mention one other thing we have seen and
by the time this show actually publishes
we may see mortgage rates go above 4%
we're we're knocking on the door of 4%
in terms of the average mortgage rate
that's going to have a a major ripple
effect in terms of the market that
should that that's going to be a bad
thing for a lot of people that's going
to cause some people to not be able to
afford homes that they previously could
and that might catch some sellers by
surprise that we might see some
inventory level out just a little bit I
mean I don't see it leveling out
dramatically because there's so much
that would have to do but this might
it it's going it's going to cut both
ways it's going to hurt some
affordability but as the market balances
out and accounts for higher mortgage
rates that may result in fewer bidding
wars that may result in situations
where where people are no longer able to
afford the homes that they were barely
able to afford before so we have to keep
an eye out on this on this number
we saw 30-year mortgage rates which
is what I'm referring to with the 4%
number we saw some 30-year rates last
year you know in the twos we saw several
of them well now we're starting to to
knock on the door of 4% that's a very
very big difference now that's still
historically quite low so it's not it
doesn't mean that it's a bad time to buy
just oh you know oh man mortgage rates
are up to 4% forget it no that that
still could end up being we still might
not see it ever go back down this low
because historically that's quite low we
don't know exactly what's going to
happen but that's something that we
will have to keep track on in the
upcoming weeks that's all for today's
episode I hope you enjoyed it I'm sorry
that it went so long hopefully it it I
didn't bore the Daylights out of you but
if I didn't bore the Daylights out of
you if you enjoyed every moment of this
and you're a prime candidate to
subscribe rate and review the show so
please do that all my contact
information is in the show notes I hope
you guys stay safe and have a wonderful
rest of the week
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