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Hello everyone and Welcome to another
episode of Selling Greenville your
favorite real estate podcast here in the
upstate of South Carolina I'm your host
Stan McCune as always realtor right here in
the greater Greenville area and you can
find all of my contact information in
the show notes should you need to reach
out to me for any reason and just a
reminder as always please go ahead and
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great to get it out to as many people as
possible today we're going to be
talking about the the market and we
do this frequently because really
every month the greater Greenville
Association Realtors comes out with
their Market stats and because of how
fluid the market is I guess is is
probably the best way of saying it
and Ever Changing ever evolving doing
a show usually per month I do a show
that's kind of centered around these
GG Market stats now as always I have to
preface it that there are a few stats on
here that for whatever reason tend to be
inaccurate per month if that is the case
then I will let you know before I
mentioned the stat but but I've been
doing this so long now that I pretty
much just leave those off and what we do
what I do is I will reference two months
prior so let me give an example here I'm
recording this in the middle of May the
stats just came out for April some of
the April stats will be wrong but then
the stats that were wrong last month for
the month of March will have been
updated so there are some stats on here
that will be more interesting for the
month of March than for the month of
April from the standpoint of of giving
us an idea of where the market is going
but unfortunately for some reason
there are just a couple of stats on here
that the Greenville Association of
Realtors is just unable to get right
in real time and I'm not exactly sure
what the reason is for that I've never
been able to get a firm answer on
that but we're just going to start
basically at the top here with new
listings new listings believe it or
not
for a a a good chunk of the past 12
months have actually been up year on
year we've been talking about the
inventory issues that we have in
Greenville and and really it's a
nationwide problem but the inventory
issues are not indicative of the fact
that we're we're not seeing increases
year on year we actually are seeing
generally speaking some increases year
on-ear now December M of 2021 January
of this year and February of this year
we're all down year on-ear so those
were not good months from an inventory
standpoint but now we've had two
straight months March which was up 1 and
a half% and April which is up
2.1% of new listings coming up year onye
versus well year on year versus what
we saw last year so that's good that's
what we need we need more listings
coming on the market to help rebalance
some things as far as pending sales
are concerned this is one of the
statistics that is not going to be right
for the month of April so I'm not even
going to talk about the month of April
what I'm going to talk about is the
trend that we have seen since December
which is that each month since December
pending sales have been down year on
year so there are fewer properties going
under contract year on-ear a lot of that
has to do with the inventory issues the
month of March it was dramatically down
then this is the the biggest down month
that we've had and it'll be interesting
to see once we get the actual numbers
for April what April ends up being but
the month of March was the first double
digigit negative month and new listings
that we've had the past 12 months it
it so December it was down 4.3% year
on-year again these are pending sales
properties going under contract January
it was down 3. . 7% year on-ear February
down 6% year onye March down
13.3% year on-ear so that is a big big
drop off in terms of of pending sales so
what that's indicating to me again
this is what we've been talking about is
that we are seeing some changes in the
market right now that to me is a is a
big indicator March for pending sales to
go down that much that means the the
market people people were putting the
pause down that you know pressing the
pause button trying to to recalibrate
okay what's going on here with mortgage
rates what's going on here with the war
in Ukraine what's going on here with
hyperinflation all these different
things happening people you know I I
think we're we're seeing the market kind
of take a pause because that's you know
up until that point right December
January February all those months being
down that was a direct tie to the fact
that there's just low inventory
the re if you have fewer homes for sale
then obviously your pending sales are
going to be less there are fewer homes
to put under contract but for to have
jumped from where had it had been
hovering between 3 and
6% down since December to jump up to
13.3% that tells me that's a little bit
more I think than just the inventory
and particularly because we have seen
new listings coming on the market have
ticked up right so we shouldn't be
seeing such a dramatic decrease in
pending sales I think that that
indicates that some demand is is
starting to lessen a little bit in in
the
market that being said closed sales
for the month of March were up 1.4% but
for the month of April and again same
this is GNA be tied right if pending
sales were down in March then closed
sales are going to be down in April that
is just naturally what's going to happen
it was down
5.3% that's the first down month that
we've had year onye since October of
2021 now October is traditionally a
down month so that's not a a really a
huge surprise but that's just
something it's something to to keep in
mind now I will say this is a
interesting tidb I didn't realize this
until I was looking at these numbers
closed sales in
April they spike in the month of March
right so that is the month of March is
when we kind of kick off the spring
season and that's when we when people
kind of wake up from you know the winter
L and we see a every year a huge jump
every healthy year a huge jump in Clos
sales in the month of March but you know
what traditionally actually the month of
April does see a little bit bit of a
tail off and then it goes up May and
June with traditionally June being the
peak of the of the buying season may
can sometimes also be the peak of the
buying season so we're entering the the
peak and I shouldn't just say buying
season peak really selling season if
anything peak real estate season let's
just call it that the point being we we
saw a little bit of a tail off in April
and I always warn people with when
we're looking at these stats we don't
want to to draw too many insane
conclusions from them we we you know
some people are going to look at these
and I'll tell you right now some people
will look at these and based on some
anecdotal data as well combined with
these stats they'll say oh the Market's
crashing I we need to temper anything
that we any conclusions that we come
to based on these stats the month of
April was down that's the first down
month since October is normal for closed
sales to go down in October and it's
normal for them to go down in April
in comparison to the month before but
the fact that it is down year onye for
the month of April that's something that
we need to track a little bit that could
be indicative that we're seeing again
just slight tapering of demand maybe
more than slight but it it does look
like we're seeing tapering of
demand what what was really
interesting to me I did not expect to
see this but the days on Market until
sale which is the average number of days
between when a property is listed and
when an offer is accepted in a given
month that number was really really
low for the month of April so we had
seen this number kind of it looked
like it was maybe stabilizing in January
February March where it had kind of gone
back into the 30s and you know
traditionally if
this number would be in the 40s or 50s
like in a normal even a normal sellers
Market it would normally be in the 40s
or 50s because you normally don't have a
home again you're we're looking at
the entire average of the market right
so this number is being dragged down
or or up depending on whether homes
are going under contract right away or
whether home some homes are sitting for
a long time
the homes that are sitting for a long
time are causing the number to go up the
homes that are going under contract
right away cause the number to go down
all that to be said that number was down
41% year onye in April
2021 we were looking at 39 days on
Market until sale April of this year
23 days so that's a a very very low
number that's close to to the lowest
that it's ever been which was last
year of let's see here what was the
lowest July August and October of last
year all were 21 days and so we're
we're close to the lowest that we're
seeing then so even though you know
anecdotally I have seen this a lot of
others have seen it some price changes
some price decreases more so than we
have traditionally seen the past year
and a half but Market wide we are
still seeing a very
low number of days on market for all of
these properties median sales price
all right this is a major indicator
right because if we're seeing any kind
of a cool down that's going to be
reflected in the median sales price and
it's not reflected yet okay I do think
it will be I I I I strongly believe that
we will see a decrease in the median
sales price in upcoming months it
might take us until maybe it will be
July I I think it might be sooner than
that we again it's a very fluid
situation but the median sales price and
we look at median versus average because
median is a more accurate indicator of
where the market is but the median sales
price was up 19.7% year on-ear we are
now at a
$298,000 median sales price for
Greenville basically
300,000 is now what your average home
cost that is up from $249,000
a year ago so we have gone from the
average home costing
$250,000 in April of last year to now it
cost $300,000 in April of this year
and the averages if if you care about
the average price which the average
price is just we don't look at it much
because it's skewed by by very expensive
properties if you have a few million
dooll properties that sell in a market
where the average is in the 300s that's
you know that doesn't really tell you
what's really happening but if you're
interested the average was up 15.1% year
on-year which is also honestly a
pretty high number even by the past
year standards it went from 306
36,000 a year ago to now 352,000 this
year but for for my purposes I consider
the median to be more indicative of what
is actually the true average price in
our Market 298,000 right now out of all
of these numbers the number that jumped
off the page to me the most was this one
the percent of list price received so
now this is I'm just going to read it
again these are the greater Greenville
Association of Realtors stats this is
the percentage found when dividing a
property sales price by its most recent
list price and that's a key word most
recent list price so this does not take
into account the original list price
this can be after price reduction so
that's an important caveat then
taking the average for all property sold
in a given month not accounting for sell
concession that's an also that's also an
important detail it does not account for
the fact whether sellers are paying
closing costs or not that all that being
said looking at this historically maybe
looking at it in a nutshell it you can't
draw major conclusions but looking at it
historically you can and historically we
are up
1.4% year on-ear which is here's why
that's really important right because
that's actually lower than than last
month March was up 1.7% year- on-ear but
April of last year was the first month
that we hit 100% in other words the
average sale was 100% the average closed
sale was 100% of what the property was
listed well now even you you would
expect you know you can't get much
higher than 100% right well we have
been you know every month pretty much
except October of the past year has
been over
100% but April of 2022 April of this
year was
10.4% in other words the average seller
was getting 1.4% more than what they
had listed the home for and that's the
highest ever that is the highest we ever
have in recorded history in the greater
Greenville area area of South Carolina
so I I I suspect that that number is
going to go down but right now listen
for the month of March if you were
selling you know in in March April
generally speaking you did very well
from the standpoint of of how much
that you got for your house when you
listed it expect that number to taper
off because of some of these other
indicators that we talked about but man
I that number really jumped off the page
to me inventory inventory is
another major indicator that we look at
this really is a huge way that we
assess the market and we've been
hovering around the low one month around
one month of inventory now for a
while basically December was 1.1
months of inventory January 1 month
February 1 month March 1.1 months so we'
basically been at one month of inventory
uh
for the last several
months this is one of the stats that
for the month of April is not going to
be accurate so I'm not going to say
exactly I I don't know exactly what the
number is but I will say this it came in
at
1.7 now the number that number is going
to go down because like I said said this
number is pegged to the pending sales
which are are always inaccurate every
month for for the the most recent month
that these stats are looking at but I
honestly I expected that number to be
higher than 1.7 because usually usually
you have to like subtract half a
percentage point or more in order to get
what it's actually going to be once they
revise these numbers the next month
so April of 2022
I I think it's going to once they redact
this next month I think it's going to
end up being right around that one 1.1
1.2 months inventory range which is
which is
surprising we're we're we we need to
at some point some of these indicators
are going to have to start reflecting
that actually inventory is increasing
because if not what we're going to see
is the worst case scenario what we're
going to see is both supply and demand
go down that that's the worst case
scenario right well for me as a realtor
it is because what that means is that
there's just going to be fewer closings
fewer people buying fewer people selling
whereas you know for the past couple of
years we've had fewer people selling but
a lot more people buying but
unfortunately this is the the climate
that we're in and this may very well be
what happens with what's going on
with mortgage rates and all of that
so overall
I think that we are going to see things
slow down a little bit all you know I
had an episode a few weeks ago where I I
talked about the spring busy season and
kind of what I thought and several of
the things that I said on there
immediately happened immediately started
happening and one of those things that
immediately started happening that I
noticed is that people are getting
caught off guard by the fact that it's
not the same Market that it was you know
six months ago it is still as all of
these metrics indicate still very much a
sellers Market but the people that were
you know overpricing their homes by 25
or
$30,000 and still getting some people
kicking tires on them maybe getting an
offer that would then fall through due
to a low appraisal or whatever the case
may be those people now because there
are more homes on the market are just
not getting interest in those houses and
so what's happening is those prices
on those overpriced homes are starting
to drop I'm hearing some people saying
oh you know wow this Market is Shifting
like crazy because of the fact that
the they're seeing more price decreases
I I would again temper expectations
or or temper your interpretation of that
data because to me as I said several
weeks ago that's just people misreading
the market misunderstanding how to price
at home you don't in a market like this
is not a good idea it's still not a good
idea to overprice your home it's never a
good idea when you're listing your home
to overprice it but but in this
market it it's it's really bad because
people are more skeptical than ever when
that house sits for a week or two it
used to be that if a house sat for a
week or two you could still get pretty
close to if not a full price offer on
the house the way things are now if a
house sits there for a week or two it
can be a situation particularly if a lot
more homes come come on the market it
could be a situation where that home
just ends up you know getting
substantially less than what it's listed
for and and we're seeing that reflected
in people that are misreading the market
and are having to then go in and
decrease their prices that's a that's a
really bad idea that's something that
when I have a seller client I I try to
discuss with them okay here's the range
here's the range that I think your home
is is worth but
obviously there's a lot of variability
within that range but I don't want to go
over the range right if if I say the
house is worth 350 to
$375,000 I don't want to list it for 380
and that's not self-serving that's
because if you do that and then you
start dropping your price you may end up
getting less than what the house is
worth that I I've done a podcast on that
in the past people that end up doing
that and overpricing their home they end
up selling their home for less than they
would have if they had just priced it
normally I did an episode on this I
believe it was last year and so you
definitely don't want to do that you
will end up losing out if you do that a
lot of people are going to be doing that
here in the upcoming months as they
misunderstand what market dynamics are
at play here so if you have any
questions about that if you're looking
to sell your home whatever the case may
be or if you're looking to buy I am a
realtor as I already said
I am here in the greater Greenville area
I would be happy to talk to you about
that my contact information is in the
show notes if you need to reach out to
me for any reason please rate review
subscribe to the show and I'll talk to
you guys again next week
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