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Hello everyone and Welcome to another
episode of Selling Greenville your
favorite real estate podcast in
Greenville, South Carolina I am your host
Stan McCune realtor of course right here in
the Greenville area of South Carolina
and you can find all of my contact
information in the show notes if you
need to reach out to me for any of your
real estate needs and please remind as
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could just take a quick moment to do
that everyone wants to know what is
going on in the real estate market right
now and the greater Greenville
Association of Realtors just released
their June statistics I will probably be
going over these every monthpretty
regularly just because we're in a
shifting market and we want to see what
the data actually says so just a
reminder as always these come from the
greater Greenville Association of
Realtors there's a couple of stats on
here thatI'm either not going to
share or I'm going to share the previous
months because those tend to be
inaccurate specifically pending sales
for some reason pending sales inaccurate
for the monthfor the most recent
month on here but the prior months it
will beaccurate for that also
impacts the month's supply of inventory
so we will not be talking about June's
month supply of inventory but we will
talk about just the general inventory
levels so let's Dive Right into these
statistics to see what exactly is
happening in the market right now
we're going to start with new listings
because that's pretty much right at the
top of of their document and we're just
going to go straight down this document
new listings were up
17.5% year on-year for the month of June
in other words compared to June 2021 it
was up
17.5% we had237 new listings in the
month of June of this year and last year
it was
1,964 so that is a very very large jump
in new listings and this is historically
we're seeing an increase each June since
the pandemicthe 2020 June it was
only
1,736 so we saw a massive increase I
mean this is by far these statistics go
back all the way to 2007 preGreat
Recession by far this is theJune was
the month that had the most nule
listings of any month going back all the
way to 2007 and this is a I'm following
theNational Trends as well this is
consistent with national Trends we saw a
massive jump in new listings in the
month of June now is that a trend that's
going to
continue I tend to think it's not I tend
to think that we had a lot of people
realizing oh shootwe're we're seeing
the market shift and we're going to we
we the market may have already peaked or
we don't or maybe we're thinking it's at
the peak we don't want to miss out
people listing their home quickly
maybe sooner than they would have
normally and I think that we're going to
see a little bit of a tail off on new
listings for July and August we'll have
to see traditionally we do anyway just
the cycle of the market July tends to be
a slightly slower month just kind of in
generalbecause by that point people
going on vacation I mean I was in
church on Sunday and we had like a third
of the people we normally do because so
many people are traveling right now so
that impacts the real estate market
and then we typically see a little bit a
little bit of a bump in August you know
as people trying to to make the last
little push before school and fall
season all that kind of stuff and then
we start to see the long tail off as we
head into winter and the quote unquote
holiday seasons so all of that to say
June was a crazy month for new listings
but I'm not sure that we're going to
continue to see that just anecdotally it
feels like July has has slowed down on
the new listings quite a bitand
I'm recording this on July 19th we'll
see if that continues through the rest
of the monthpending sales this is
the number that I said is traditionally
not accurate so it won't be accurate for
the month of June but we can go back to
the month of May and see what happened
and the month of May had a huge decrease
in pending sales it went down
19.1% year on-ear that is a massive
decrease it was also not just a year
on-year decrease it was a very large
monthon Monon decrease again this is the
month of Mayit was
1,369so that was down from May of of
2021 which was
1,693 almost 1,700 00 and that was down
from April of 2022 April of this year
which was
1,55 so a big decrease in pending sales
so what happens when sales go down and
new listings go up inventory goes up in
other words the supply of houses that
are on the market go go up and when that
happens that then cools down the market
and makes it less of a sellers Market
now as we're going to see is very much
all the numbers in here indic IND it's
still very much a sellers market and all
of my indicators also would tell me that
it's still very much a sellers Market
from what I'm seeingbut the change
is happening this we've been waiting for
this change this is the change pending
sales dropping new listings going up
that is absolutely there is no way that
that can happen and not have a direct
impact on the
market closed sales all right this will
be accurate for the month of June closed
saleswere down slightly it was down
4.5% for the month of Junethat's
actually kind of surprising given how
far down pending sales were for the
month of of Maybut nonetheless it
was down this is nowtwo out of the
past three months we have hadclosed
sales down year on year so the month of
June was down 45% from June 2021 May was
up
4.3% in comparison to 2021but April
was also down
4.6%those numbers are kind of well
within the normbut again we we will
probably see closed sales have been at
record highs now for for a whileI
think that we're going to see these
numbers come down a little bit
because again the market is cooling ever
so slightlyI expect that we'll start
to see more regular decline and these
close sales as the months continue on
now indicators that we're still in a
sellers Market oh yes very very many
indicators of thisand and I just
want to say I just want to take a pause
for a second
here still a seller's
market based on a on a lot of things
inventory is still at record lows even
as inventory goes up it is still
historically very lowso that is low
Supply
demand even as demand cools demand is
still at record highs so even as we talk
about the market cooling we are not
talking about this cooling at least not
yet to a buyer's market and I know I've
said this before but it but we have to
keep this in perspective demand still
super high and Supply still super low
now demand is going to cool and Supply
is going to come up and that's going to
balance things out a little bit more but
it's it will take a tremendous
rebalancing for us to see a buyer Market
I don't see that happening short of a
global war or major Global recession
something like thatand even then it
would take a while some people are are
thinking that we might be in a recession
right now well if this is the recession
that is going to be the marker of of
this decadethen no this is not it it
would take much more of a recession than
this for us to actually see
the real estate market recede to the
point of being a buyer Marketall
right so with all of that in perspective
some of these numbers are insane oh and
and I I I need to go back real quick I
wanted to say this before and I
forgot some people are going to we're
going to see the market transition right
it a market doesn't flip quicklyjust
organically it has to it it's there
still has to be a transitional period so
even though we're seeing numbers
flipping PE in people's minds there has
to be a transition so for instance let's
say that you are a buyer and you've been
trying to buy a house since December and
you keep getting out bid over and over
and over again youve looked at a
gazillion houses you keep getting out
bid and you know that's because you're
looking at homes and the you know
$75,000 price point which is like one of
the you know that's a very hot price
point right now you keep getting out bid
as the market slows down you are not
going to be less aggressive in your
strategy right because you want to get
something under contract so guess what
the house comes on the market that fits
your criteria you're going to
immediately jump on it why because
you're still wanting to get the house
right you've been aggressively looking
for all these months you've been out bid
all of these months so perhaps a house
pops up that now there's so much
Supply on the market that you're
actually not competing with anyone but
you're strategy because you have been
competing with so many people over the
past several months your natural
strategy and your natural inclination is
to still approach that and to still
automatically assume I need to jump on
this immediately put an above list price
offer wave all my contingencies etc
etc we that is happening I'm I'm seeing
that happening right nowand sellers
as well sellers are going to have to
transition in their mind they're going
to assume oh my listing as soon as I put
this on the market it's going to
immediately sell I'm going to get top
dollar I'm going to get over list price
all of my neighbors did and and that's
just what's going to happen sellers are
going to have to learn oh this it's not
this Norm is changing it's it's not
going to be quite like this but but
sellers haven't switched in their mind
yet so it's going to take some time
before we see all of that happen these
Market Corrections that we're starting
to see it's going to be several months
before practically we actually start to
see this play out in terms of people
buying and selling their homes now I
predicted this several months ago what I
have seen immediately the first
indicator that the market was switching
Ing and and you know cooling down a
little bit was that fixer upper homes in
hot areas that were traditionally going
under contract right away and
potentially getting multiple offers
those homes are now starting to sit
because sellers were were able to not do
anything they were able to what what was
a very common thing is we saw people
that would like inherit a home from like
a deceased family member or something
like that you know and it had 35y old
appliances and old shag carpet and
unpainteddinged up wood paneling
you know all these things water damage
in the ceiling old roof25-year-old
AC and they were able to just list the
homeas is and get pretty close I
mean get only a little bit less than
they would have gotten if they had
actually gone in and done all of that
work well that has changed the market is
starting to not support those types of
homes obviously at a certain price point
it willbut we're starting to see
that there's enough homes out there that
people don't need to buy the fixer
uppers they're able to hold out and wait
for a home that doesn't need just tons
and tons of work prior toreally the
past two to three months sometimes those
homes would be the only ones available
in certain areas and so people just they
had to to buckle up and just go ahead
and buy the fixer upper and then do the
work even though they were paying top
dollar both for the fixer up upper and
also for the work we're already starting
to see that change okay so with all of
that in mind it's still a seller's
market okaythis is out of everything
in here the number that is shocking to
me the most is the days on Market until
sale this is per GG the average number
of days between when a property is
listed and when an offer is accepted in
a given month now again this is a meta
average so
properties that have been on the
market a really really long time really
drag this number down and properties or
drag it up I guess I should say makes it
a higher numberbecause let's say a
house has been on the market for for
four months before it goes under
contract then that number would be 4
months 4 * 30 120 days roughly a home
that goes under contract in the first
two days that it's been on the market
drags the number down makes the number
lower because again that number would be
twohistorically at least pre
pandemic the number was traditionally
around 60 that was kind of between 50
and 60 that that was kind of our Norm
for several years and that was the norm
even back in
2020 well that was June 2020 was 55 55
days on Market until saleJune 2021
24 days on Market I mean once we got
below 30 it was kind of a stop
astonishing I I never thought that I
would I would see that I mean that was
just such a historical anomaly what was
June 2022 it was 18 18 that is the
lowest number in the entire graph that
is the least days on Market until sale
that we've ever seen and this is exactly
what I'm talking about even though so
many of these metrics show that that the
market is rebalancing buyers are still
being Uber Uber aggressive and homes are
still selling very very quickly now this
number is going to go up how do I know
that because what this isn't factoring
again this is only looking at properties
that are under contract what it's not
looking at is properties that aren't
under contract and so there are going to
be properties that now are currently on
the market overpriced not under contract
that are after several price reductions
are going to finally go under contract
and it might be two or 3 months that
they're on the market I just showed a
house recently that's been on the market
for almost 4 months when that property
goes under contract it's going to cause
this number to Skyrocket and we are
going to see I I I promise you I don't
know if it's going to happen in July or
August or September but I believe in the
next few months we're going to see this
number which is currently sitting at 18
I suspect it'll probably be well into
the 30s if not higherbeforethe
end of the year mark my words and and I
think it'll probably be within the next
three months we'll just have to we'll
just have to wait and
see again another indicator median sales
price remember we we don't we look at
the median sales price more than the
average to kind of give us an idea of
where the market is because the average
is
grosslyoverv valued based on the
more expensive homes in the market
whereas the median sales price tells us
what's the what's the middle number
tends to be the more accurate indicator
of what the the general average for our
Market is the median sales price for the
month of June down a little bit month on
Monon so remember May was the highest
ever it was basically
37,000 June came down a little bit but
remember this number fluctuates month-to
month so a a slight decrease month- on
month doesn't mean anything it was
for June 2022 31152
more importantly that was an increase
year on-ear of
16.6% that's still a massive increase in
other words the market has gotten
16.6% more expensive since June
2021we had seenwe had had
basically like 6 months of it being at
or above
177%so we are seeing this is a lower
year on year gain than we've seen since
October 2021 so again it's still
insanely Highand and again now the
average home in Greenville costs 311,000
which and changewhich you know I
I think it's I think it's definitely
going to keep we're going to see this
number keep going up but 16.6% still an
insanely High number and I don't really
see this I see the slowing down
people are like are prices going to
go down no they're going to slow down
that's that's what I think I don't think
that we're going to see prices go down
so that you know by September of this
year we're going to say oh September of
2022 the average home was iscosting
less than September of 2021 nothe
market again would have to completely
crash for us to see that happenI
would be very very surprised if if that
happened I there's no indicator that
supply and demand are going to shift
that quicklyfor us to see that again
if we have global war a major Global
recession at some point we could see
kind of a flatlining of of home values
but I think what's going to happen is
these median sales prices they're going
to at some point the percent increase is
going to fall into the D into the single
digits I think that that probably will
happenbefore the end this year and
that'll be the first time since the
pandemic that we've had that happen so
we'll have to keep an eye out on what
month it finally dips into single digits
right now it's sitting at
16.6% so we've got a little ways to
goaverage price wasactually up
quite a bit average price it doesn't go
up quite as much as the median has but
the average price was up
14.4% now at
371 8839 that's the highest number on
hereso again that number is much
higher than the medianbut that's
because of substantially more expensive
homes million doll homes $2 million
homeswhen those sell it it really
messes up the average price so I don't
put a ton of weight in
that another very important metric that
still indicates that the market is still
very hot from a seller's perspective the
percent of list price received
which is the percentage found when
dividing a property sales price by its
most recent list price again this does
not factor in price changes it's the
most recent list price then taking the
average for all properties sold in a
given month not accounting for seller
concessionsand we're still not
really seeing seller concessions in this
market so that's not that's not really
important outside of the fact thatif
you're comparing these numbers to
pre-pandemic numbers usually there were
sellers concessions pre- pandemic so
I've said this before these numbers are
even higher than than they look at first
glance if you're comparing them to
historicalsthe percent of list price
received actually came down Year onye
from June of 2021 but that's only
because June of 2021 was crazy it was in
2021 it was
10.2% one of the highest numbers that we
have on herenow last month the month
of May the last month that we have
record of herewell sorry the the
month prior to last month I should say
the month of May was the highest we've
ever had in Greenville it was
10.7%I think that that will probably
be the highest that we ever see because
June it came down to 101% which is still
insane it's still insane that sellers
are getting on average more than what a
house is listed for again people are
going to have to transition in their
minds buyers specifically they're going
to have to transition they're going to
have to to learn that they don't NE in
every situation have to go above list
priceso it was down to 101% that was
down from may also down from June of
2021 I I think before the end of this
year we will see this number also go
below 100%we'll have to we'll have
to wait and see the thing is that when
people then because this number doesn't
factor inpeople changing the price
on their listings we could see
situations where people realize where
sellers realize oh the Market's
switching the Market's kind of
transitioning here okay I need to lower
the price of my house by 25,000 well
then they overcorrect and then they get
multiple offers and then it ends up
going above what their most recent price
was in which case this number would
still stay kind of high so I'm not as
confident on my prediction that it'll
dip below 100% before the end of this
year but that's my gut feelingwe'll
just have to see
housing affordability indexthis is
the index that measures housing
affordability for the
region and again I'm just reading this
off the gjrdocument for example an
index of 120 means the median household
income is 120% of what is necessary to
qualify for the median priced home under
prevailing interest rates a higher
number means greater affordabilitywe
saw this numbera while back when
when this podcast was still in its early
days dip below 100 for the first time
that was let me see when when was that
that
was that was way back in 2020 yeah
shortly after the pandemic it dipped
below 100 for the first time then it
went back up then it went back below
and then it's just been a steady drop
since then so that number is now at
76this is driven heavily by
investers purchasing the properties
that first-time home buyers
traditionally would have boughtand
so needless to sayon average people
have 76% of what it takes to buy an
average house that's not good that is
that is not good for housing
affordabilityand as we discussed
during themy post Greenville primary
electionpodcast I don't see this
changing because we have a bunch of
people that are going to be in County
Council that are against housing that
are against developmentand there are
pros and cons to that but one of the
cons for sure Greenville is going to
become less and less affordable for just
Average Joe's for for people that are
making a an average income in this
areanow the other number on here
that really pops off the pay oh and I
guess I should should compare that
historicallythat was a 14.6% drop
that housing affordability index year
on- year that was a 14.6% drop it was 89
in June of 2021 so it's down to 76 June
2022 going to keep dropping is is my
predictionit hopefully it'll stop
dropping that quickly I mean that's a
that's a huge we should for sure see
thatthat number you know the the
year-on-year drops go down into single
digits before the end of the yearall
right inventory of homes for sale this
is perhaps the the biggest
you knowthe the number that pops out
on the page the mostand I actually
posted this onon my Facebook page
which some of you are friends with me on
but June 2022 had a
75.4% increase in inventory year on Year
from June2021
75.4% like when you look at the graph
the little chart that they have here
it just looks like a rocket taking off
it's just going straight up now
historically still super super low like
we are still a good thousand homes on
the market away from being at
pre-pandemic levels of inventory so the
actual number for June 2022 was
3,231 which again an increase from June
2021 which is
1,842 massive increasealso a big
increase month- on-month May was 2034
soand and may was an increase
versus May of 2021 so we're we're seeing
this is what I've been saying Supply is
going up inventory is going up I mean
that number is skyrocketing now again do
I anticipate it will continue to
SkyrocketI I tend to think that the
month of June that we just saw a huge
influx of of people panic listing their
homes trying to make sure that they
didn't miss out on the waveof the
sellers Market
I think that this number is going to is
going to level outmaybe slightly
below pre-pandemic
Norms maybe at pre-pandemic norms
prepandemic Norms would have been around
4,000giv orake homes on the market
so so we'll have to
seemonth supply of inventory this
one is not going to be accurate for June
because it's pegged to the pending sales
numberbut we can look at the month
of Maywhich was up to 1.4% which is
a 27.3% increase from May 2021 which is
1 Point1.1 months inventory so it's
at 1.4 months inventory in the month of
May we are going to see that number go
up it's going to keep going up it was
never sustainable in the oneswe're
going to to keep seeing thatgoing up
it should easily easily be in the twos
the next couple of months if it's not
already in the twosand who knows
maybe we'll see it in the threes before
the end of the year we'll have to wait
and see
there are some othernumbers in
here that basically analyze the
different price points different
types of properties number of bedrooms
etc etc I think really the only thing
that I want to focus on is is there's
two things that we've seen consistently
on this and that is that
two-bedroom one and two-bedroom or
Studio Homes have seen big increases
in the past couple of years we're seeing
people getting they're getting priced
out they they everyone wants to have at
least three bedrooms but but first-time
home buyers are just pressed out of
being able to get three bedroom
properties and so they're having to
Resort for two or fewer bedrooms that
that was up year on-year
14.8% was close sales of two bedroom
propertiesfour bedrooms or more was
down 1.7% year on-year so again people
are getting squeezed out of of being
able to buy bigger homes they're having
to settle for smaller homes and condos
condos were up 13.4% year- on-year
again they tend to be more affordable
than detached single family houses so
people are going where their money can
take them condos and properties that
have two or fewer
bedrooms we're going to keep seeing this
Market shift and I will continue to to
deliver this content for you guys so
that we can track exactly what it does
and kind of and try to figure out where
it's going to land like we don't exactly
know where it's going to land and some
of that will be based on what happens in
in the greater economy so stay tuned
we're going to have lots more content as
we keep tracking this every month but
that is this week's episode of selling
Greenville I appreciate you guys
listening all my contact information is
in the show notes if you need to reach
out to me for any reason and as always
please leave a rating five stars smash
that five star button leave a short
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next time
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