Transcript for The Geopolitics of Britain
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This week we want to continue with our geopolitical series looking

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at the world's key nations.

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So recently we had the resignation of the prime minister of Britain, and we thought

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it would be a good time to talk about the geopolitical perspective of Britain.

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When it was an Empire Britain ruled over 25% of the world.

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But since World War II its position it's slowly declining.

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And today Britain is trying to forge a new position for itself in the world.

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Now, to discuss this, we have Geopolity founder Adnan Khan,

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how are you keeping Adnan

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I'm good Yusuf, how are you?

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I'm very well, thank you.

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so let's start from the beginning.

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What are Britain's geopolitical imperatives?

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What are their constraints?

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So Britain has always been a small island on the edge of a large

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continent, the European continent.

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And this has really been a major factor, a major force on the British isles.

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So Britain really has generally had three imperatives.

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So imperatives are those things you need survivial.

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So the first of these is maintaining unity on the British isles and this

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wasn't met, really when we talk about the British isles, most of history,

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you're talking about England and really from the 16th, 17th century onwards.

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When we talk about Britain, you're talking about the whole of the British isles.

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So many people might take it for granted.

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When you talk about Britain, you know, you're talking about Scotland,

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Wales, Ireland and England.

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Most of history Britain was not a unified island.

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So maintaining unity has always been a key imperative.

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The second key imperative is dealing with the European continent.

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Now this has always been Britain's fundamental problem.

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And the reason why is Britain's threats and most with invasions have always

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come from the European continent.

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So the Romans, they occupied Britain for about 400 years.

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The the Normans from France, they occupied Britain for about 60 years.

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Then in the 16th century, the Spanish then in the 19th century, the French and

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in the 20th century, the Germans, all of them try to invade and conquer Europe.

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So dealing with the European continent, staying aloof from European affairs

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and dealing with any potential invader.

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This has always been a key geopolitical imperative for the UK . And the third

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is maintaining overseas markets.

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Now, Britain is a small island it's frozen for about seven months in a year.

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It had some resources, however it lacked many of the resources needed to survive.

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And that's why it was always important for Britain to engage

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with the rest of the world.

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And as we know, and I'm sure we'll discuss Britain built an empire, built a global

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empire . And it was the global superpower for a good, hundred years or so.

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So obviously the main constraint with all of this is having the

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economic capability to achieve this.

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So maintaining unity, feeding a population.

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Dealing with threats from the European continent.

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So maintaining a military and overseas markets having the economic

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capabilities to achieve that has always been the major constraint of Britain.

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So most of British history, it was a poor island.

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Then it became an empire and it was the became immensely rich,

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and then it declined and has had a big impact on its economy.

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That really in a nutshell is the Britain's geopolitical imperatives and constraints.

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Now I think one question that I've always had is how does an island like

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Britain, a small island become a global empire as in, how does that happen?

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So Yusuf, you'd be surprised it's happened a few times in history, the Roman empire

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started of in a small city called Rome.

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The Portuguese, which I think is slightly smaller than the UK.

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They became a global empire.

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They were, they conquered Brazil and even the Netherlands became

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a global superpower as well.

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And in most of these cases, including the UK, it was achieved through violence,

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through murder, bribes and plunder.

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And in the case of Britain, the constant changing of alliances.

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Where they were able to outdo all their competitors.

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That's how they're able to achieve it.

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There was no unique or grand characteristics that

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allowed them to do it.

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The Spanish conquered the Americas, not through the strength

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of their language, not through their cultural or civilisation.

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It was through brute force.

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It was through organised violence.

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The Brits were the same aswell.

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So when the Spanish and the Portuguese were looting the gold and silver and

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the sugar and spices of the Americas British pirates, targeted their ships.

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Britain wasn't involved in the first wave of colonisation of the world.

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It was really part of the second wave.

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And there's a reason for this, Britain is a small island.

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It's always had a small population and therefore it's

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not able to field a large army.

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So in any war, Britain would always have a massive problem.

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It would always be outnumbered by the Spanish, by the Portuguese,

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by the Germans, by the Russians.

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So what Britain did and what really defines British power

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historically was they made sure that they controlled the oceans.

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They made sure they have the largest Navy.

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In fact, the British empire had a strategy of their Navy had to be the

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same size as the next two Navies.

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So, what that meant was if you wanted to fight Britain in any part of the world.

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You'd have to get your troops there and to get your troops there, you need a

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Navy and Britain had the largest Navy.

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That was how it maintained its position.

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So if you look in the Americas, if you look in Africa, if you look in India, if

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you look in the Far East, what Britain did is it maintained the worlds largest

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Navy for a good couple of hundred years.

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So people like Napoleon.

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They struggled to really get to other territories and take on the Brits.

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So that's really how the Brits achieved it.

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So initially really British, they supported people like John

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Cabat, who were basically pirates.

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In the books they are treated as explorers as adventurers.

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You know, many films are made on these.

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These guys were basically pirates.

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They would intercept and steal the and gold the goods coming

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on Spanish and Portuguese ships.

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So the Spanish and the Portuguese were global empires, but their supply

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lines of getting these goods back to Europe were constantly attacked.

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So as a result, these countries opened up a large part of the world and because many

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of the routes and many of the lands became known, the Brits had a lot more certainty

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when they engaged in global affairs.

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The Spanish even when they discovered America, they were trying to find

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alternative route to China and India.

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So this is how a small island became a global power.

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It was through violence, murder, plunder and by setting up colonies and

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subjugating the people, turning these into trading outposts and forcing these

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colonies to buy British products, which guaranteed profit for British companies.

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In the case of India, they came to the largest economy in the world and

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eventually became the rulers there.

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So if you look at European history, a small island conquering

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large territory is quite common.

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Many of these former colonies that Britain had, they're now independent

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nations and Britain's military has really shrunk to a fraction of its size.

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How did Britain, when it was such a big empire, such a strong empire with

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a good strategy to protect itself.

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Now decline to this point?

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So Yusuf, really the emergence of rival powers is really what kick

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started and then rapidly drove the decline of Britain at a global power.

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So specifically, we're talking about the rise of the US and then on the

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continent, the rise of Germany.

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The rise of Germany forced Britain to enter into two ruinous wars, WW1 and

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WW2 and Britain never really recovered.

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In WW1 Britain virtually was bankrupted.

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Britain relied upon the entry of America with a million

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troops to stop German victory.

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And because America withdrew its troops after the victory and went

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back to America into isolation, it meant Britain could continue being the

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dominant power because it had dealt with Germany and America didn't wanna

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take part in global issues at the time.

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WW2, obviously things changed Britain was in no position to defend

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against the Nazis and the entry of America made the difference.

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But on this occasion, America didn't wanna share the world with Britain,

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as far as America was concerned, there the new superpower on the block.

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Now we've gotta keep in mind Yusuf here that maintaining an

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empire is a very costly endeavor.

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you think about it, you've got colonies all around the world.

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Those colonies need to be maintained.

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You need to have some sort of administration there.

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You need to control the oceans through your Navy.

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It's very costly.

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As long as the profits from your colonies are more than your

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costs than your empire works.

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But what Britain found over time is as new technologies came, it became

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very costly to maintain empire.

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It should be kept in mind that most of Britain's colonial endeavor was run by

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private individual and private companies.

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The queen, the monarchy and the government , in Britain, they supported

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these privateers with monopolies.

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They maintained an army a as much as they could, but most of the profit

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from the colonies were private profits.

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They would pay taxes to the British empire.

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But what you find is two world wars will very costly.

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To the point where the colonies were no longer profitable anymore, it

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was more of a cost to maintain them.

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The final thing that actually allowed Britain to maintain its empire was

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Britain defeated Napoleon in 1815.

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And then after that, they had the Congress of Vienna where they

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sorted out the post world war order.

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And from 1815 up until world war I 1914 to 1918.

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So a hundred years.

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There was actually no threat or war on continental Europe.

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The only war was the Crimea war where the French and the British supported

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the Ottomans against the Russians.

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Other than that, there was actually no war on the continent.

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So really it's not a matter of how did Britain decline.

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It's actually a question of how did Britain take so long to actually decline.

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And the reason is, is because from 1815 to WW1, 1914, there was no

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other power to challenge Britain.

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That challenge did eventually come in 1871 Germany became a

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nation, it rapidly developed and they challenged Britain in WW1.

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So really Britain's decline that all empires was inevitable.

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And like all empires the cost of maintaining empire became prohibitively

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expensive and then rival powers emerged.

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If Britain is leaching of its colonies, other countries would

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also want to do that, as well.

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And we should keep in mind Britain's development.

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Britain's rise was largely funded by its raping of India.

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India, which was 25% the global economy.

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It was the land that financed Britains industrial Revolution.

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So if Britain can do that naturally, any other country would wanna do that

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as well and this to be honest with you is probably the history of global power.

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You know, you have a global power and you have nations or empires that want

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to compete with it and to maintain your position is, is costly it requires

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significant resources and in the case of Britain it wasn't a departure from this.

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Now, this decline that you are talking about, ultimately this decline, it

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doesn't seem to have stopped, and it seems like Britain will continue to

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decline in the foreseeable future.

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Why is Britain struggle to stop this?

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Why is Britain struggle to remain relevant in the world?

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Not being able to revive its power and get back to the position.

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It was once in as a global superpower?

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Yusuf, simply put, Britain, it lacks the economic and military capability to

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be an influential power in the world.

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Britain has been on a decline since WW2.

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It is lost a lot of its colonies.

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It's been replaced in the world by Russia, by America uh, mainly, and

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British economy, its colonies and its large military was what gave it power

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in the world, if you look at the British economy, they were virtually bankrupt

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after world war II, as a result, they also lost their colonies as well.

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America, and the Soviet Union pushed through the UN that the European

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powers have to give up their colonies countries have to become independent.

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So they couldn't leach off these colonies anymore.

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British industry, which had been about 50% of their economy through empire.

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These industries were old.

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They were outdated.

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They were taken over by Germany, by America and other countries.

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And we know in the sixties and the seventies British

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industry was in severe decline.

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The unions were very powerful.

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And despite central government wanting to change these industries, they were unable

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to, when Margeret Thatcher came along, she was the final straw for British industry.

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She completely restructured the British economy away from

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industry towards Services.

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So today I think 80% of the British economy is service based and the

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biggest sector in Services is finance.

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Now that's not exactly gonna make you a superpower.

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So in 1900, the top five industries in the UK were coal, steel,

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textiles, steam engines and ships, all key to being a global power.

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Fast forward to today.

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Britain's top five industry in order are food and drink cars, gas

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turbines, aircraft parts and metals.

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Metals is I think about 11% of Britain's total industry, at the

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high of British empire, I think it was the half of the British economy.

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Now you're not gonna become a global super power.

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When your top manufacturing industry is food and drink.

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And manufacturing has gone from 50% in the economy down to 10% today.

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So Britain just doesn't have the economy that supports being a global power.

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America has 800 bases around the world that requires you to have

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the same industry to achieve that.

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Britain just doesn't have that.

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On the flip side, if you look at Britain's military, the Royal Navy,

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that was such an important part of the British global supremacy.

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Just to give you some numbers, in 1990, Britain had nearly a hundred ships.

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Today, Just for my research, I can only find about 26 platforms that you

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can consider are of offensive nature.

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So, Iran's revolutionary guards who are not even their proper army.

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The revolutionary guards are larger in size than Britain's first army.

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And the fundamental problem here is, is the British economy

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cannot support a large military.

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So the reason why Britain has declined and is struggling because

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it just doesn't have the economic or military capabilities to achieve it.

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And that's why you'll hear many people say Britain punches above his weight.

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Britain gets involved in global issues.

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Britain is at the negotiating table when it actually lacked the military

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and the economic capabilities to enforce whatever is agreed, and that's

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Britain punching well above its weight.

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There's been a lot of talk about a new Britain.

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So Boris Johnson, he called it a global Britain.

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And idea is about , centering Britain's power around the Commonwealth nations.

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Is this how Britain is trying to get back into a position of power?

00:16:26,957 → 00:16:29,417

Is this how Britain is trying to get back to the good old days?

00:16:30,377 → 00:16:30,707

Yeah.

00:16:30,707 → 00:16:31,997

Yusuf so on paper.

00:16:31,997 → 00:16:33,137

This all sounds great.

00:16:33,197 → 00:16:34,577

I mean, just think about this for a second.

00:16:35,477 → 00:16:40,617

You colonised a chunk of the world and that was a good thing because

00:16:40,617 → 00:16:42,297

you were on a civilising mission.

00:16:42,367 → 00:16:46,177

What you're trying to do today is after plundering, these nations

00:16:46,237 → 00:16:49,477

is to say that we can have stable, good economic relations.

00:16:50,677 → 00:16:54,127

So this sort of stuff, it resonates with a certain element of the British

00:16:54,127 → 00:16:57,837

public, because they believe Britain is a force of good in the world.

00:16:58,377 → 00:17:00,837

But you are trying to develop economic relations with

00:17:00,837 → 00:17:01,917

countries who you plundered.

00:17:01,917 → 00:17:04,197

I mean, you know, the Indians aren't calling for the British to come back.

00:17:05,577 → 00:17:05,697

Yeah.

00:17:05,697 → 00:17:07,307

You plundered these particular areas.

00:17:07,498 → 00:17:09,298

So there's been various.

00:17:10,198 → 00:17:13,108

Plans Britain's come up with, I mean, some of them are not very serious.

00:17:13,108 → 00:17:14,308

They're just on paper.

00:17:14,908 → 00:17:17,578

They are more for domestic political consumption.

00:17:18,118 → 00:17:23,728

But in the case of Boris Johnson, uh, global Britain was the tagline they

00:17:23,733 → 00:17:26,908

used to say this will be what we will be doing in the Post- Brexit world.

00:17:27,328 → 00:17:28,618

We're gonna leave the European Union.

00:17:28,678 → 00:17:29,728

Things are gonna be great.

00:17:30,538 → 00:17:33,148

The shackles have come off and Britain can engage globally.

00:17:33,538 → 00:17:36,663

Britain's been engaging globally, even when it was with the EU, the problem

00:17:36,663 → 00:17:40,873

Britain has is, it just doesn't have the power, the influence to shape

00:17:40,873 → 00:17:45,553

the world because it doesn't have the military or economic capability, but

00:17:45,558 → 00:17:49,513

even the Commonwealth, most of the Commonwealth today, consist of countries

00:17:49,513 → 00:17:51,013

in the Caribbean, the small islands.

00:17:51,043 → 00:17:51,373

Okay.

00:17:51,643 → 00:17:54,613

Includes Australia includes Canada, but these aren't exactly

00:17:54,613 → 00:17:56,053

influential countries in the world.

00:17:56,603 → 00:17:59,603

if global Britain means we're gonna work with our former colonies, most of

00:17:59,603 → 00:18:01,043

the British colonies were very small.

00:18:01,613 → 00:18:03,623

They're small islands, they're small countries.

00:18:04,433 → 00:18:07,823

Minus South Africa, Australia, New Zealand, Canada.

00:18:08,093 → 00:18:10,853

But these aren't countries that are exactly gonna allow you to be

00:18:10,853 → 00:18:12,723

taken seriously around the world.

00:18:12,723 → 00:18:16,303

So a lot of the talk about British influence in the world it really

00:18:16,303 → 00:18:17,533

is just that it's just talk.

00:18:19,573 → 00:18:22,933

One thing that doesn't really quite make sense to me is why

00:18:22,933 → 00:18:24,793

did Britain leave the EU?

00:18:24,943 → 00:18:28,993

I mean, it was one of the dominant players in the EU.

00:18:29,203 → 00:18:31,423

It seems like it's a self-inflicted wound.

00:18:33,473 → 00:18:34,733

So that's a very good question.

00:18:34,733 → 00:18:41,573

In, summary, leaving the EU will driven by a very small segment of the population.

00:18:41,603 → 00:18:46,560

It will driven by some of the billion millionaires.

00:18:46,560 → 00:18:49,950

Some of the people from big industry who were unhappy with the

00:18:49,950 → 00:18:53,610

rules and regulation of the EU and the encroachment of regulation.

00:18:54,525 → 00:18:58,665

It was also driven by a handful of people in the Conservative Party.

00:18:58,665 → 00:19:04,275

Now Britain's European Union membership has always divided the Conservative party.

00:19:04,815 → 00:19:08,085

It's always been a major point of contention.

00:19:08,165 → 00:19:12,565

Margaret Thatcher was effectively removed from the party in the end, due to her

00:19:13,145 → 00:19:15,605

anti-EU position actually actually took.

00:19:16,145 → 00:19:19,285

So this has actually been growing in the Tory party for a long time

00:19:19,365 → 00:19:24,305

and the members of the Tory party that were anti EU, they have received

00:19:24,305 → 00:19:29,075

significant support from big business who were also anti EU as well.

00:19:29,585 → 00:19:34,445

I would actually argue the vast majority of the UK public actually had no problem

00:19:34,445 → 00:19:35,825

being part of the European union.

00:19:36,415 → 00:19:38,855

However, prejudices were used.

00:19:39,035 → 00:19:43,445

Many, many lies were concucted by those who believed Britain should leave the EU.

00:19:43,880 → 00:19:46,400

Arguments such as we're paying too much into the EU.

00:19:46,430 → 00:19:48,020

We're losing control to the EU.

00:19:48,320 → 00:19:52,790

Most of these arguments don't stack up, but they won a lot of credibility

00:19:53,090 → 00:19:56,193

amongst elements of the public who could see problems in the UK.

00:19:56,913 → 00:20:01,713

So what you find a very tiny element in the, and even in the end, the reason why

00:20:01,713 → 00:20:06,813

we even had to vote was because these people who were anti-EU in the Tory party,

00:20:06,873 → 00:20:11,483

they were undermining successive prime ministers, conservative prime minister.

00:20:12,018 → 00:20:15,888

David Cameron he gave in, in the end and said that if the Tory party were

00:20:15,888 → 00:20:20,288

to win a majority in parliament, then we would have a, referendum on the EU.

00:20:20,648 → 00:20:23,408

And he did that based on the fact that it was unlikely, the conservative

00:20:23,408 → 00:20:25,128

party would win a majority.

00:20:25,128 → 00:20:28,758

There were at the time in a coalition government with the Lib Dems and

00:20:28,763 → 00:20:32,278

unfortunately, he probably didn't analyze this well, they did win a

00:20:32,278 → 00:20:36,818

majority and he was forced to give a referendum and the anti EU element in

00:20:36,818 → 00:20:41,098

the country and those in the government they led a very successful campaign,

00:20:41,158 → 00:20:44,878

based on a lot of propaganda to make sure Britain left the EU in the end.

00:20:44,878 → 00:20:50,128

And I can tell you from now the utopia, the Brexiteers promised has not been

00:20:50,128 → 00:20:51,658

delivered, not even remotely closely.

00:20:52,478 → 00:20:54,128

So yeah this is the history of Britain.

00:20:54,128 → 00:20:56,978

You've always had a very small segment in the population.

00:20:57,563 → 00:20:58,793

Who dominate the country.

00:20:58,823 → 00:21:03,473

You had the Nobles in the past, you had the aristocracy, you've had big business.

00:21:03,923 → 00:21:08,383

The, the 1% in the UK, they dominate Britain and the Conservative party has

00:21:08,383 → 00:21:11,293

always represented the 1% in this country.

00:21:11,653 → 00:21:14,563

And that's why public opinion can be completely on one side.

00:21:15,233 → 00:21:18,113

But the 1% due to their dominating position in the country, they

00:21:18,113 → 00:21:19,013

hold a lot of the wealth.

00:21:19,133 → 00:21:20,303

They dominate the media.

00:21:20,753 → 00:21:23,703

They're able to achieve some of their goals, because of

00:21:23,703 → 00:21:24,663

their dominant, position.

00:21:24,663 → 00:21:29,193

And that's how Britain today now stands outside the EU, but it was driven by a

00:21:29,198 → 00:21:35,613

very small segment of the population who used propaganda and prejudice to get a

00:21:35,613 → 00:21:37,113

large segment on the public on this side.

00:21:38,763 → 00:21:43,473

So let me get this straight Adnan are you saying that this small segment.

00:21:43,968 → 00:21:46,968

That's pushed the anti EU sentiment.

00:21:47,238 → 00:21:54,018

Have they benefited from Brexit and has Britain lost out or have both lost out?

00:21:54,410 → 00:21:57,929

So no, this small segment who are people from big business, they're from the

00:21:57,929 → 00:21:59,669

financial industry, they will win out.

00:22:00,099 → 00:22:04,854

Britain is looking as though it's gonna become a tax haven on the edge of Europe.

00:22:05,529 → 00:22:09,519

It's where all, I mean already the dirty money of the Russian

00:22:09,969 → 00:22:14,269

oligos, Greek shipping magnets, the Middle East is ending up in the UK.

00:22:15,019 → 00:22:19,279

So these people will benefit because they were against EU oversight on these issues.

00:22:19,879 → 00:22:24,829

So literally Brexit was done by a handful of people in this country and they stand

00:22:24,829 → 00:22:26,619

to benefit at the expense of the rest.

00:22:26,619 → 00:22:29,249

Now that might sound a bit conspiratol but that's actually

00:22:29,249 → 00:22:30,329

been the history of the UK.

00:22:30,509 → 00:22:31,919

You go back a thousand years.

00:22:32,369 → 00:22:36,749

Most of the wars in Britain and civil wars have been over one class

00:22:36,754 → 00:22:38,549

dominating over the majority class.

00:22:39,009 → 00:22:40,359

And they've gone to all of each other.

00:22:40,449 → 00:22:41,779

In fact, that's the history of Europe really.

00:22:42,279 → 00:22:44,429

Now let's talk about America.

00:22:44,579 → 00:22:47,674

So British politicians they always say that they have a

00:22:47,674 → 00:22:49,864

special relationship with the US.

00:22:50,404 → 00:22:53,489

What's the current status of Anglo-American relations.

00:22:53,597 → 00:22:57,827

So after world war II, Britain ceased to be the global superpower

00:22:58,306 → 00:22:59,776

and Britain had to make a decision.

00:23:00,496 → 00:23:03,976

What is your relationship gonna be with the new global superpower the USA.

00:23:04,367 → 00:23:06,107

Do you confront it?

00:23:06,287 → 00:23:10,097

Do you compete with it or do you not do that anymore?

00:23:10,277 → 00:23:12,827

And what Britain realised it was bankrupt.

00:23:12,857 → 00:23:13,877

It was in debt.

00:23:13,907 → 00:23:15,767

It was in no position to take on the US.

00:23:16,357 → 00:23:21,137

However, the British politicians and the elites in the UK, they didn't wanna

00:23:21,137 → 00:23:22,937

give up Britain's global position.

00:23:23,124 → 00:23:24,474

So they concluded in the end.

00:23:24,984 → 00:23:30,884

The best way for them to stay in the game is to be a partner with America.

00:23:31,829 → 00:23:33,779

Then they term this, the special relationship.

00:23:34,169 → 00:23:37,119

And what this will do is it will give Britain a front seat

00:23:37,139 → 00:23:38,459

in everything America does.

00:23:39,239 → 00:23:43,889

And by getting a front seat, Britain can then complicate America's agenda

00:23:43,919 → 00:23:47,889

when it goes against Britain and where it doesn't go against British interest,

00:23:47,894 → 00:23:49,719

Britain will then support America as well.

00:23:49,862 → 00:23:53,722

I would say if we were to sum up the Anglo-American relationship

00:23:54,172 → 00:23:58,942

it's somewhere in between you get a front seat with America.

00:23:59,452 → 00:24:04,102

And on the other side, you in effect become a vassel state for America

00:24:04,162 → 00:24:05,572

where you achieve American interest.

00:24:06,242 → 00:24:08,462

That's where Britain really is at the moment.

00:24:08,732 → 00:24:13,772

Now this special relationship largely is mentioned by British officials.

00:24:13,772 → 00:24:15,752

You don't really hear this from American officials.

00:24:16,262 → 00:24:19,862

You may hear it from time to time, but as far as America's concerned, Britain is

00:24:19,862 → 00:24:21,392

just one nation amongst many in the world.

00:24:21,469 → 00:24:23,329

America has a close relationship with Germany.

00:24:23,689 → 00:24:25,009

It has a close relationship with Japan.

00:24:25,009 → 00:24:26,179

It has a closed relationship with Israel.

00:24:26,179 → 00:24:28,339

You could argue, it's got a more special relationship with

00:24:28,339 → 00:24:29,849

Israel than it has with Britain.

00:24:30,449 → 00:24:34,138

So this special relationship is more for British political purposes.

00:24:34,162 → 00:24:36,922

it's to show that Britain has a unique place in the heart

00:24:36,952 → 00:24:38,302

of the global superpower.

00:24:38,732 → 00:24:41,702

But the Neocons when they were in power under George W.

00:24:41,702 → 00:24:43,592

Bush, they're quite open what they think on Britain.

00:24:43,962 → 00:24:45,787

They see Britain as just a small irritant.

00:24:46,237 → 00:24:49,807

They actually believe Britain doesn't even deserve to be at the table.

00:24:49,807 → 00:24:50,747

It's just a small country.

00:24:51,765 → 00:24:54,195

And they were quite critical of Britain.

00:24:54,795 → 00:24:57,075

Now because Britain created the Middle East.

00:24:57,075 → 00:24:59,835

It created the monarchies, the Saudi monarchy, the Gulf monarchies,

00:24:59,835 → 00:25:02,459

the Hashimite monarchy and Jordan Britain created these countries.

00:25:03,169 → 00:25:05,521

So Britain still has some influence in these countries.

00:25:06,121 → 00:25:09,901

So Britain could sometime use its relationship with some of these rulers

00:25:09,901 → 00:25:12,812

to achieve its interests . But even these countries, you know, a lot of

00:25:12,812 → 00:25:15,884

them are dominated by the security relationship that they have with America.

00:25:15,983 → 00:25:20,849

so for Britain the special relationship is just a way to

00:25:20,849 → 00:25:26,969

maintain a relationship with America, Britain views America as a nation.

00:25:26,969 → 00:25:29,409

That's not as sophisticated as the Brits are.

00:25:29,969 → 00:25:32,699

When it comes to foreign policy and global affairs.

00:25:33,149 → 00:25:35,594

So this special relationship is largely on paper.

00:25:36,314 → 00:25:40,234

As far as America's concerned, it is just a footnote somewhere.

00:25:40,604 → 00:25:43,064

America's a global, power's got more important issues to deal with

00:25:43,394 → 00:25:46,783

and yeah, it comes across Britain on many of these global issues.

00:25:47,118 → 00:25:51,548

If we go back to the start, the first question you mentioned that one of the

00:25:51,548 → 00:25:56,721

key things that Britain has to maintain is the British Isles and we already

00:25:56,721 → 00:26:02,461

see some sentiments, especially from Scotland that they would like to separate.

00:26:02,461 → 00:26:06,431

So Scotland is pushing for another referendum in order to leave the UK.

00:26:06,701 → 00:26:08,621

What are the prospects for this?

00:26:09,011 → 00:26:14,621

And on top of that could you also delve into the Northern Ireland issue as I've

00:26:14,621 → 00:26:16,691

never been able to quite understand that.

00:26:17,024 → 00:26:20,018

Okay Yusuf so, just quick history, the British.

00:26:20,018 → 00:26:21,966

Isles largely was England.

00:26:22,386 → 00:26:24,666

When we talk about Britain historically, we're talking about England.

00:26:25,506 → 00:26:30,842

Over time, the Welsh, the Scots and the Irish, they became part

00:26:30,842 → 00:26:32,637

of what's called United Kingdom.

00:26:33,147 → 00:26:36,437

So still today, the Scottish, the Irish, the Welsh well

00:26:36,437 → 00:26:37,837

they're culturally different.

00:26:37,858 → 00:26:39,168

Their evolution's been different.

00:26:39,168 → 00:26:41,958

Their history's been different, but because they geographically

00:26:41,958 → 00:26:45,753

live on the same Isles and England became a global superpower.

00:26:45,753 → 00:26:47,583

It made sense that they actually joined them.

00:26:48,123 → 00:26:53,283

So there's always been separatist tendencies and the fact that we are

00:26:53,283 → 00:26:56,383

different from the English, that that's always actually been there.

00:26:57,103 → 00:27:01,633

So in the case of Scotland, they joined England when Britain was an empire.

00:27:01,663 → 00:27:03,393

So they thought they could benefit from the empire.

00:27:03,773 → 00:27:07,513

But over the years and decades what's happened is the UK

00:27:07,513 → 00:27:11,023

economy is becoming more and more London and the area around it.

00:27:11,683 → 00:27:16,993

So their feeling is, is the Westminster parliament just cannot take care of the

00:27:16,993 → 00:27:21,412

needs of the Scots . So opinions been building for a couple of decades now that

00:27:21,412 → 00:27:23,152

maybe the Scotts need to go it alone.

00:27:23,662 → 00:27:28,162

So they had a referendum in 2016 due to the SNP, the Scottish National

00:27:28,162 → 00:27:29,572

Party constantly being voted in.

00:27:30,232 → 00:27:34,672

And their one point agenda is we need to have a referendum and become separate.

00:27:34,809 → 00:27:39,845

So the Scottish people voted just about to stay within the union.

00:27:40,385 → 00:27:43,535

But what they're arguing now is the material facts have changed.

00:27:43,835 → 00:27:47,135

Now that you've left the EU and the Scots want to stay within the EU.

00:27:47,165 → 00:27:48,425

They needs to be a number referendum.

00:27:48,965 → 00:27:51,905

When the last referendum happened, the agreement was you're not having

00:27:51,910 → 00:27:56,079

another referendum until 2050 . So my personal opinion is Yusuf, in the

00:27:56,079 → 00:27:58,839

long run the British isles will split.

00:27:58,899 → 00:28:02,409

There's no way England can keep Ireland and Scotland united.

00:28:02,629 → 00:28:06,725

Now it's inevitable, I think in the medium to long term its going to happen.

00:28:07,295 → 00:28:11,015

The challenge that Scots have got currently is how do you do this?

00:28:11,015 → 00:28:14,645

Because their whole argument is we wanted to remain part

00:28:14,645 → 00:28:16,835

of the EU and now you've left.

00:28:17,285 → 00:28:21,065

So they want to leave the United Kingdom and rejoin the EU.

00:28:21,665 → 00:28:25,005

Now this is a big problem for the EU because there's many

00:28:25,005 → 00:28:27,975

rebel territories and separatist territories in the European union.

00:28:28,305 → 00:28:31,035

Would you just give them a free ride and let them into the European Union.

00:28:31,755 → 00:28:36,795

So if we take the example of Catalonia in Spain, they held an informal referendum

00:28:37,275 → 00:28:40,785

and as a result, central government arrested all the leaders in Catalonia.

00:28:41,415 → 00:28:44,535

Because of the instability many of the large companies then left this area.

00:28:45,285 → 00:28:48,315

So the challenge for the Scots is you need to do this legally.

00:28:49,110 → 00:28:52,170

What you don't wanna do is leave the union and nobody wants to even

00:28:52,170 → 00:28:53,370

come and do business with you.

00:28:53,970 → 00:28:57,180

Now, the problem is Westminster has to agree to a referendum.

00:28:57,780 → 00:29:00,300

And what they're saying is forget a referendum.

00:29:00,450 → 00:29:01,830

We will devolve more powers to you.

00:29:01,835 → 00:29:04,953

Don't leave the United Kingdom but we'll give you more and more powers

00:29:04,953 → 00:29:10,083

where effectively you become autonomous province of the United Kingdom.

00:29:10,923 → 00:29:14,823

So this is the challenges the Scots have got, but I think going forward

00:29:14,823 → 00:29:17,433

in the long run, I don't think there's much Westminster can do.

00:29:17,833 → 00:29:22,333

It's inevitable and what doesn't help now is a situation in Northern island.

00:29:22,993 → 00:29:28,753

Northern Ireland is the Palestine effectively of the British isles.

00:29:29,563 → 00:29:33,583

I'm sure you're aware the British supported the migration of

00:29:33,583 → 00:29:36,163

Jews from Europe to Palestine.

00:29:36,643 → 00:29:41,603

And then they effectively created a settler colonial nation, who now

00:29:41,603 → 00:29:45,443

dominate over Palestine and believe they have the right to be there and

00:29:45,443 → 00:29:48,233

they treat everyone else, indigenous people, a second class citizens.

00:29:48,540 → 00:29:53,700

When England and Scotland unified Britain was worried that what if foreign

00:29:53,700 → 00:29:58,925

power was to land on Ireland and it could become a threat for Britain.

00:29:59,855 → 00:30:01,955

They needed to get control of Ireland.

00:30:01,955 → 00:30:04,715

And the Irish were separate people, separate culture.

00:30:05,375 → 00:30:09,065

So what they did is they got settlers from Scotland to go

00:30:09,070 → 00:30:10,515

and settle in Northern Ireland.

00:30:10,535 → 00:30:13,765

So Ireland is generally a Catholic, territory.

00:30:14,065 → 00:30:15,745

They got Protestants to go and settle there.

00:30:16,345 → 00:30:20,155

So as a result, there was a lot of tension between the indigenous Catholic people

00:30:20,695 → 00:30:22,675

and the Protestants that were there.

00:30:22,945 → 00:30:27,425

So many, many wars happened between Britain and the Irish Britain

00:30:27,425 → 00:30:31,235

then sent his military there to protect the Protestant settlers.

00:30:31,715 → 00:30:35,345

And then in the end of, in the early 1900s, an agreement was made that

00:30:35,345 → 00:30:38,675

Northern Ireland would become a separate territory to the Republic

00:30:38,675 → 00:30:42,515

of Ireland because the Protestant people there had to be protected.

00:30:43,305 → 00:30:47,355

So these areas today in northern ireland they still remain loyal to England.

00:30:47,655 → 00:30:52,495

They wanna be part of the union, the democratic union party in Ireland

00:30:53,115 → 00:30:58,365

they support this and parties like Sinn Féin, they are against Britain

00:30:58,365 → 00:31:02,395

and they want Northern island to reunify with the rest of Ireland.

00:31:02,665 → 00:31:06,295

Now Sinn Féin have actually just come into power now and their agenda

00:31:06,295 → 00:31:08,815

has always been Irish reunification.

00:31:10,105 → 00:31:13,285

So you've got Ireland who does want to be part of the British Isles.

00:31:13,795 → 00:31:17,175

Now you've got Scotland, and if Scotland leaves, which I think it will in the

00:31:17,175 → 00:31:22,183

long run it's really gonna be the end of geographical United Kingdom as we know it

00:31:23,068 → 00:31:27,498

In June, it was Queen Elizabeth II her platinum Jubilee.

00:31:28,128 → 00:31:30,558

Now she's been on the throne for 75 years.

00:31:30,558 → 00:31:31,458

That's a long time.

00:31:32,058 → 00:31:34,013

What is the role of the Royal family?

00:31:34,043 → 00:31:35,813

Is the Royal family even relevant?

00:31:36,023 → 00:31:36,833

Is it a good thing?

00:31:36,963 → 00:31:40,923

A lot of people in the UK actually aren't fond of the Royal family.

00:31:41,253 → 00:31:42,423

What's your views on this?

00:31:43,578 → 00:31:46,718

So, Britain has a long history of monarchy.

00:31:47,258 → 00:31:50,568

However, over the last few hundred years the role and the

00:31:50,598 → 00:31:52,878

influence the monarchy has reduced.

00:31:53,418 → 00:31:56,748

So you've always had a large aristocracy noble class in the

00:31:56,748 → 00:32:00,828

UK, and they've always looked to reduce the powers of the monarchy.

00:32:01,398 → 00:32:05,148

So really I will say for the last hundred years or so, the British monarchy

00:32:05,148 → 00:32:08,178

really is part of Britain soft power.

00:32:09,198 → 00:32:09,768

It's a symbol.

00:32:10,084 → 00:32:12,004

It's good for tourism in the UK.

00:32:12,454 → 00:32:19,324

The monarchy was used as a unifying factor in all its colonies.

00:32:19,344 → 00:32:23,578

The Kings and Queens were rulers of the Commonwealth of all the

00:32:23,583 → 00:32:25,803

realms of the British empire.

00:32:26,298 → 00:32:29,868

However, their role is very different today, today parliament runs the country.

00:32:30,258 → 00:32:34,028

You've got a small elite that is the dominant , faction

00:32:34,028 → 00:32:35,378

in the country amongst them.

00:32:35,408 → 00:32:36,368

It's just the Royal family.

00:32:36,368 → 00:32:40,668

They're just one of many, but in terms of day to day, say in the country, the

00:32:40,673 → 00:32:42,138

Royal family plays very little role.

00:32:42,138 → 00:32:46,188

The only role they play now is more of symbols and symbols are important.

00:32:46,188 → 00:32:51,738

So the elderly in the UK, they believe the Royal family is a good thing for the UK.

00:32:52,128 → 00:32:53,608

They believe they need the Royal family.

00:32:54,378 → 00:32:55,713

I mean, you've gotta keep in mind.

00:32:55,713 → 00:33:00,813

The monarchy historically is an archaic institution.

00:33:01,483 → 00:33:05,678

There's no elections, it's a family and if you're born to that family,

00:33:05,678 → 00:33:08,978

you are just in a prestigious position that you live like Royals.

00:33:09,468 → 00:33:12,018

You know, a lot of people don't believe in these sort of ideas anymore.

00:33:12,018 → 00:33:15,498

So you could argue from an economic perspective, they bring

00:33:15,498 → 00:33:18,178

a bit of money in you know, for tourism and things like that.

00:33:18,598 → 00:33:22,918

But in the UK, what you'd find is there is still support for the monarchy, but the

00:33:22,918 → 00:33:25,048

support against the monarchy is growing.

00:33:25,558 → 00:33:28,168

So about 75% people believe monarchy is good.

00:33:28,618 → 00:33:33,058

25% mainly among the youth believe it doesn't and it should go.

00:33:33,898 → 00:33:39,998

However, after Queen Elizabeth II, who's now in a nineties I think the position,

00:33:39,998 → 00:33:41,498

the Royal family will completely change.

00:33:42,263 → 00:33:45,023

Really a lot of the loyalty to the Royal family today is

00:33:45,023 → 00:33:45,983

because of Queen Elizabeth.

00:33:46,553 → 00:33:50,033

I think once she's gone, that's really gonna be the end of the Royal family.

00:33:50,033 → 00:33:51,263

What the Royal family didn't do.

00:33:51,263 → 00:33:52,133

They didn't adapt.

00:33:52,613 → 00:33:57,213

If they had let the younger children become Queen King, people could

00:33:57,218 → 00:33:58,713

relate to them and that might work.

00:33:58,718 → 00:34:02,413

But Queen Elizabeth II doesn't really want to give up her position.

00:34:02,413 → 00:34:07,393

So really it's more symbols, it's more soft power, the Royal family's role today.

00:34:07,393 → 00:34:09,943

They don't really have any political influence as such.

00:34:10,479 → 00:34:14,209

Currently, we've got a leadership contest within the Tory party.

00:34:14,679 → 00:34:15,999

What can you see happening here?

00:34:15,999 → 00:34:18,009

Who do you think will be in the lead?

00:34:18,009 → 00:34:20,679

Who do you think will be in place by September?

00:34:22,299 → 00:34:27,879

So like all elections who the actual leader is, doesn't actually really

00:34:27,879 → 00:34:32,444

matter, especially in the conservative party, because what you find is

00:34:32,444 → 00:34:34,334

the overall direction in the UK.

00:34:34,394 → 00:34:37,154

They don't really have much say in that, that's really to do

00:34:37,154 → 00:34:38,444

with the elites of the country.

00:34:38,874 → 00:34:42,564

That machines getting in one direction, all you can do is decide the amount of

00:34:42,564 → 00:34:44,784

petrol you're gonna put in the machine.

00:34:44,784 → 00:34:49,899

So whether it's Rishi Sunak or whether it's Liz Truss, the general direction,

00:34:49,899 → 00:34:53,139

the challenges they're gonna have to deal with, they actually remain the same.

00:34:53,739 → 00:34:59,161

What's actually interesting is the Tory party will have had four different

00:34:59,166 → 00:35:01,951

leaders, Prime Ministers in Six years.

00:35:02,321 → 00:35:04,957

And that shows you the problem at the heart of British politics.

00:35:05,010 → 00:35:07,990

The fact that they keep having leaders, the leaders don't succeed

00:35:08,020 → 00:35:11,235

and public opinion goes against them and they have to actually change them.

00:35:11,985 → 00:35:15,172

So at the moment they're trying to fight on issues, which aren't

00:35:15,172 → 00:35:16,252

that relevant to the public.

00:35:16,312 → 00:35:18,532

You've got a cost of living crisis going on in the UK.

00:35:19,132 → 00:35:22,117

You've got major divisions in the Tory party itself.

00:35:22,747 → 00:35:25,762

So whoever become the leader, they're gonna have significant issues that

00:35:25,762 → 00:35:27,572

they're gonna actually have to deal with.

00:35:28,352 → 00:35:31,722

I mean, the interesting thing is you've obviously got an Asian candidate, Rishi

00:35:31,722 → 00:35:35,842

Sunak, so that would be interesting, but this is not a public vote.

00:35:36,482 → 00:35:38,607

The public are not voting for the Tory leader.

00:35:38,667 → 00:35:43,977

It's around 180,000 people who are members of the Tory party and the Tory

00:35:43,977 → 00:35:48,957

party membership generally consists of Middle aged white men who are

00:35:48,957 → 00:35:50,397

usually on the right of the party.

00:35:50,457 → 00:35:54,087

So that's gonna have an impact, but Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss were at

00:35:54,087 → 00:35:55,407

the heart of the previous government.

00:35:55,407 → 00:35:58,317

They supported all the tax increases against the people.

00:35:59,037 → 00:36:00,387

They supported Brexit.

00:36:00,387 → 00:36:03,177

Although Liz Truss didn't support Brexit initially, then eventually she did.

00:36:03,777 → 00:36:06,987

But in the end whoever becomes the leader, it doesn't really matter

00:36:06,987 → 00:36:09,697

because , both of these individuals were at the heart of the previous

00:36:09,697 → 00:36:11,795

government that lost a lot of credibility.

00:36:12,455 → 00:36:14,645

So Britain has significant challanges, it's gonna have

00:36:14,645 → 00:36:15,725

to deal with going forward.

00:36:15,755 → 00:36:19,595

And the conservative party doesn't have a good track record of

00:36:19,595 → 00:36:20,825

dealing with strategic issues.

00:36:21,585 → 00:36:24,615

Just look at the UK since 2016, they've actually constantly change their

00:36:24,615 → 00:36:28,425

leaders because they promise the world, but they've been unable to deliver.

00:36:29,243 → 00:36:30,663

Just one final question Adnan.

00:36:30,863 → 00:36:32,983

What's the future of the UK?

00:36:32,983 → 00:36:36,697

What are the key trends and challenges she faces going farward?

00:36:36,868 → 00:36:38,593

So there's a few Yusuf.

00:36:38,593 → 00:36:43,303

I think firstly, there's significant domestic issues the UK has going forward.

00:36:43,933 → 00:36:49,483

About 70% of the wealth in Britain is in the hands of, I think 10% of the popul.

00:36:50,323 → 00:36:53,983

This is why you've got major problem in the UK.

00:36:53,983 → 00:36:58,003

You've got a chunk of the population that are just about making ends meet.

00:36:58,363 → 00:37:00,853

They are consuming more and more of the government budget,

00:37:00,883 → 00:37:02,053

which is running on debt.

00:37:02,383 → 00:37:03,433

And this isn't gonna change.

00:37:04,203 → 00:37:06,993

So this is what causes many of the issues you've got in the country.

00:37:06,993 → 00:37:11,063

This is then led to democracy and opinion and confidence

00:37:11,063 → 00:37:12,093

in democracy is rock bottom.

00:37:12,843 → 00:37:16,953

It's rock bottom because successive leaders have really taken care of

00:37:16,953 → 00:37:20,133

the 1% at the expense of the people.

00:37:20,133 → 00:37:23,073

And that's why Britain has become a very divided nation.

00:37:23,523 → 00:37:25,983

One way they try to deal with this is they blamed it all on

00:37:25,983 → 00:37:27,843

the EU that the EU is a problem.

00:37:27,843 → 00:37:32,833

If we leave the EU, it will be a new dawn and here we are a year or

00:37:32,833 → 00:37:35,833

two after Brexit and the problems are actually getting even worse.

00:37:36,673 → 00:37:39,403

So national unity is the second problem.

00:37:39,953 → 00:37:43,613

As I mentioned, I think in the medium to long term, the British isles will split.

00:37:43,613 → 00:37:44,673

Scotland will go seperate.

00:37:45,043 → 00:37:48,148

When Scotland goes separate I think it's inevitable Ireland will

00:37:48,168 → 00:37:50,988

go separate and then all you're left with the England and Wales.

00:37:51,048 → 00:37:52,618

And I don't see how they're gonna reverse that.

00:37:53,148 → 00:37:54,798

I really can't see how they can.

00:37:54,798 → 00:37:55,728

They have left the EU.

00:37:56,418 → 00:37:59,508

The economic situation is bad.

00:37:59,778 → 00:38:02,118

Wealth distribution is already really, really bad.

00:38:02,568 → 00:38:05,728

So I can't see how national unity is really gonna remain going farward.

00:38:06,818 → 00:38:10,248

Then you've got Britain's relationship with the rest of the world.

00:38:10,248 → 00:38:13,898

So Britain already has a contentious relationship with Europe.

00:38:14,368 → 00:38:20,068

Britain left the EU, but then it turned its back on the agreement treaty it

00:38:20,068 → 00:38:22,738

had about Ireland, the Irish protocol.

00:38:23,488 → 00:38:27,618

So it's gonna have a very tense relationship with the EU and beyond

00:38:27,618 → 00:38:29,303

that there are new powers emerging.

00:38:30,013 → 00:38:33,438

India this year, we'll have a larger economy than the UK.

00:38:34,218 → 00:38:38,068

Now that's a very significant position we're in the country that was a colony

00:38:38,548 → 00:38:42,658

that funded your empire, it now will be a larger economy in the world than Britain.

00:38:43,348 → 00:38:47,638

Why should India, for example, not be, not have a seat at the UN, why is

00:38:47,638 → 00:38:52,258

Britain got at the UN, why should India not replace Britain on all international

00:38:52,258 → 00:38:56,218

issues when it's got larger economy and it's developing country, these

00:38:56,218 → 00:38:56,968

are sort of issues you're gonna.

00:38:57,748 → 00:39:01,178

You've got Turkey, for example, who in many ways is more influential

00:39:01,178 → 00:39:02,818

in some areas around the world.

00:39:03,328 → 00:39:07,148

You've got Russia, for example who is is a power in the world and you've

00:39:07,148 → 00:39:10,318

even got Latin American countries emerging in the medium to long term.

00:39:10,888 → 00:39:16,913

So I think in the long run, Britain's decline really will speed up because

00:39:16,913 → 00:39:19,883

you've got other emerging powers who will believe that they should

00:39:19,883 → 00:39:21,813

have a bigger say going forward.

00:39:21,813 → 00:39:28,441

So in a nutshell, despite the geopolitics of Britain in the long run,

00:39:28,471 → 00:39:32,041

Britain position in the world really is one of leaving the premier league

00:39:32,046 → 00:39:35,531

of nations because new nations will emerge and take up those positions.

00:39:37,876 → 00:39:41,536

Thanks for your time today Adnan, definitely given a lot to think about

00:39:41,536 → 00:39:43,036

a lot of things to watch out for.

00:39:43,466 → 00:39:46,671

If you want to learn more about the issues raised today, then please check

00:39:46,671 → 00:39:49,136

out our website www.thegeopolicy.com.

00:39:49,186 → 00:39:52,816

You can also learn more about other issues by accessing our website where

00:39:52,816 → 00:39:56,536

you'll find comprehensive insights, analysis, articles and deep dives.

00:39:56,866 → 00:39:57,706

Thank you for listening.

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