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Hello everyone and Welcome to another
episode of Selling Greenville your
favorite real estate podcast here in
Greenville South Carolina I'm your host
as always Stan McCune realtor right here in
Greenville South Carolina and you can
find all of my contact information in
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any future episodes today we're going to
be talking about the greater Greenville
Association of Realtors Market stats for
the month of October that they just
released here in mid November because
obviously we need to stay on track and
stay on top of what is happening in this
ever evolving Market it's a a lot of
things that are happening to us and we
we just need to to stay on top of it and
to make sure that we know is it a
sellers Market still is it a buyer
Market is it a neutral Market what are
all the market dynamics that are
happening and so the GG just released
their statistics and it's worthwhile for
us to go over these as we do pretty much
every month so let's start right at the
top with new listings these are the
the count of properties that have been
newly listed on the market in a given
month now again this is the greater
Greenville Association so this includes
Greenville County this will includes
some listings that are in neighboring
counties such as Spartanburg such as
Pickins such as Anderson County so a lot
of those counties end up getting
properties listed in the Greenville MLS
even though they're in non-g Greenville
counties so that's just something to
keep in mind as you're hearing these
stats and that's the case for any
pretty much anytime that I'm I'm going
over stats related to the market in
this area because Greenville itself is a
relatively small Market new listings
were down year onye down 1.7% versus
October of
2021 they were also down month on
Monon no surprise there year on year
they went down that's also no surprise
that's happening Nationwide what's
happening is fewer people are now
able to move so fewer people are listing
their homes than in the year past
they're they're no longer able to move
because they can no longer afford to
move they have a nice cushy three to
3.5% interest rate those people aren't
going to move for a long time we're
going to see my my gut feeling is that
we're going to see new listings really
go down for quite some time it it's
there is going to be a major shift that
happens in the next few years until
these mortgage rates kind of come back
down from their 6 and a half to 7% range
that they have kind of been hovering at
the past few weeks we're going to
need those rates to come down into the
fives or the fours in order for these
people that have locked in rates in the
twos and threes to really start to
consider moving moving that's what I
think and so as a result new listings
which just now finally started to go
down from a year-on-year basis I
think that that's going to be the
trend at some point here in the very
near future that that that's just going
to be the norm that we're going to see
fewer and fewer listings both as a
result of rates people being locked
into lower rates also as a result of
people not being able to afford moving
because of the higher rates and just
a variety of other
things pending sales if you guys
listen to this every month or or
hopefully every week but if if you
listen to the show every time that I
talk about the market stats you know
that the pending sales for the previous
month are not going to be accurate so
I'm not even going to cover that I am
going to look at two months ago which
was the month of September and pending
sales which are account of properties on
which offers have been accepted in a
given month those went down 20% year
onye for the month of September so
that's a huge number absolutely gigantic
number fewer properties going under
contract than we've had in a long time
in fact that is the even the number
which was
1,178 that went under contract that
was our lowest number since December of
2021 and December is usually one of
the slowest if not the slowest month of
the year whereas September is usually
nowhere near the slowest month of the
year so for September to be comparable
to September of this year to be
comparable to December of last year that
that tells you where we're going the
market is cooling down there are fewer
homes going under contract so now we
have experienced almost we are almost at
12 straight months of pending sales
being down year on year the month of
November of
2021 was up 13.3% year on-ear so once we
get the the market stats next month that
will be from December of 2021 through
November of
2022 we will very much expect that
pending sales for the entire 12 months

basically the entire past 12 months that
these stats apply to will be in the
negatives year on year but that that
negative 20% for the month of September
that was the lowest year-on-year that
we've seen it was also a very big month-
on-month drop off as well and so this
is what we expect we expect sales to
go down and and they have and then
that directly impacted closed sales
which were down for the month of October
now remember your pending sales in
August and September then become closed
sales in the month of October and this
metric tends to be more accurate than
the pending sales one for the most
recent month which is October they
were down
13.9% year on-ear we we saw October
of 2021 was
1,423 closed sales and that went down to
1,225 closed sales for October of
2022 now it Bears mentioning that
that is still historically a pretty high
number for the month of October so
demand hasn't completely fallen off the
cliff
but but it may let's let's just be
completely honest it very well could
fall off the cliff with rates doing
what they're doing with what the fed's
doing what the FED is doing with
potential recession looming all these
things happening
it very well we very well could see
closed sales like completely fall off
the cliff but for now even though
it's weaker than what we've seen in
previous months and previous years it's
historically still very strong demand
and that should come as no surprise
Greenville is going to outperform a lot
of markets because Greenville is a
trendy market right now now here's
where we start to see some big increases
days on Market until sale this is the
average number of days between when a
property is listed and when an offer is
accepted in a given month that went up
this is the the largest increase that
we've seen in a very very long time that
went up
52.4% for the month of October so we
went from October of last year was 21
days on Market until sale which was
insane an insanely low number that was
never sustainable that was near the
bottom of of where the Greenville Market
bottomed out it it actually bottomed out
at 18 which was earlier this year
but 21 was hovering right around that
that bottom out number we're all the way
up to for the month of October 2022 at
32 days and we are going to see this
number so it went from 18 in June to
19 days on Market in July to 21 in
August all the way up to 27 in September
and then another big jump to 32 in
October I think we're going to continue
to see these big jumps as these months
go on because now we're seeing all this
inventory now that's just sitting on the
market and so once those homes start to
sell that have been sitting for you
know maybe four five six months which
we're we're starting to see this now
this did this has not existed for a long
time homes that have been sitting on
the market for four five 6 months
well once a few of those start to sell
that's going to really skew this average
days on Market until sale and so
right now that number is at 32 I'd love
to see the median for this number I
feel like that would probably be better
than the average but for whatever
reason they use the average so we
have to compare it historically and
so I I suspect that we are going to see
this number very quickly get into the
40s and probably very quickly thereafter
get into the 50s and once we get in that
range we'll be back into prepandemic
numbers when it comes to days on Market
until sale so sellers just need to be
prepared most sellers are not seeing
their homes go under contract right
away and you know the ideal is to is
still to go under contra cont within the
first few weeks that you list a house
but for a lot of people that's just not
happening right now median sales price
this is obviously one of the most looked
at numbers in all of this because this
kind of tells us what direction the
market is going in we had a lot of
months where the median sales price
which is basically it's what we use in
terms of the average right it's it's
basically
the the most accurate way to look at the
market and say what does the average
home cost in the greater Greenville area
if we use the average it's so heavily
weighted by the homes that sell for 234
million so we use the median which just
takes the middle number in the entire
set of numbers and so this kind of
tells us what direction the market is
going in the standard year-on-year
price increases for Greenville you would
typically see 3 to 6% appreciation or or
three I shouldn't say appreciation
because the the increase of median sales
price isn't necessarily appreciation
it's just marking it's it's just telling
us how much more expensive the market is
year on-ear right it's not exactly the
same but it does somewhat give you an
idea of appreciation as well so they're
not the same but they're kind of like
first cousins if that makes any sense
all right so typically we had seen this
number in you know pre pandemic around
like 3 to 6% per year during the
pandemic that number consistently stayed
between 15 to 20% that continued into
this year even though I would say we're
kind of post pandemic at least the past
half year or endemic if you want to
call it that the market really has
not been impacted in any direct way by
by Co the past six months from my
perspective but those numbers have
still been in the 15 to 20% increase
year onye in terms of the the median
sales price well we finally saw it for
the month of October go back into single
digits year onye it was up
99.8% so October of
2021 the U median sales price was
$275,000 and that went up to
300 oh Siri on my Apple watch
decided to to say something so
apologize for that if you heard that
but October's median sales price was
32,000 a
99.8% in increase year
on-ear now if you remember September of
2022 was
$315,000 so that's a a pretty decent
month on-month decline to go from 315 to
302,000 but I will remind you guys what
I have said in the past which is that
the seasonal aspect of real estate means
that we should expect these numbers to
come down month on month to end the year
and what I'm looking for is Loosely
speaking to see if if the median sales
price at some point here in the next
let's call it four to five months drops
be well maybe less than that 3 to four
months maybe drops below 285,000 at that
point then I feel pretty certain that we
are seeing an actual depreciative Market
an actual Market where housing is non
seasonally cheaper than it was in
previous months and in potentially
previous years we have to we have to
monitor the year- on-ear but the
month- on-month decrease we'll see that
probably before the year-on-year
numbers become apparent whether we're
in a depreciative market and again it's
not one to one it's not Apples to Apples
that if prices on these median numbers
go down that that means home prices are
depreciating because you have to
remember part of what goes into all of
this is just what homes are being
listed so it could be that just cheaper
homes are hitting the market than in the
past for one reason or another but it's
close enough this this metric is tied
closely enough like I said said before
to appreciation that I think we can say
if if we see these numbers get below
285,000 at that point I'm going to feel
pretty confident to say that the market
has shifted to the point where prices in
Greenville are going down and in some
markets we're already seeing this in a
lot of markets actually Greenville is
a pretty Stable Market so it wouldn't
surprise me if it doesn't happen here
but it also wouldn't surprise me if it
does because I'm seeing this in a lot of
other markets Nationwide so we'll have
to keep keep track with that I'm
going to skip over the average sales
price because the median is more
accurate the percent of list price
received that's the next metric on
here that's a percentage found when
dividing a property sales price by its
most recent list price then taking the
average for all property sold in a given
month not accounting for seller
concessions you'll remember that last
month there was a really massive
decrease both year on year and month
on Monon in September of 20122 it went
down to
98.8% so the average home that sold sold
for
98.8% of what it was listed for even
after price reductions that was a big
decrease compared to the year before
which was over
10.4% in other words people were getting
more than what their home was listed for
October went down to
98.7% which is a 1.1% year-on-year
decrease but only a .1% month- on-month
decrease and I would say that that's
that's good generally speaking pre
pandemic we saw this number kind of
hover in the 98% range I think it's good
if it keeps kind of coming down toward
that 98% number without being too
shocking I I don't like when we see
it go from August of this year which was
99.6% to then September which was
98.8% almost a 1% decrease month on one
month on month technically a 8%
decrease but you get the point that is a
System Shock to people that are selling
all of the sudden they have to adjust on
the Fly okay I'm not going to get near
what I have my property listed for even
though all of my neighbors got what they
had it listed for or maybe more it's
good if this number gradually comes down
and it and it will continue to come down
98.7% is not the bottom I don't know
what the bottom is but I suspect for
sure it will be at least
98% and it would not Shock me at all if
it went into the mid
97s just based on where the market is
going it wouldn't shock me if it even
went lower than that so much depends
on what happens in Ukraine you know
if China invades Taiwan that could be
catastrophic what continues to happen
just with regard to supply chain issues
just and mortgage rates all of these
different things inflation all of these
different things are connected to the
real estate market and so we have to
monitor all of them closely to really
understand what's going to happen and
right now I do monitor those things and
I don't have a lay on on the land yet as
far as where the bottom is or where the
top is on some of these
numbers I'm not going to spend a lot
of time on this but the housing
affordability index which has
steadily gone down now for several years
po back up from September of 2022 which
was
75 it popped back up to 78 for
October which is the highest that it's
been since April of this year and so
the long story short is that housing
even with the increase in interest rates
is a little bit more affordable than it
has been for several months so the
housing affordability index index it
measures I'm just reading this straight
off the page it measures housing
affordability for the region for example
an index of 120 means the median
household income is 120% of what is
necessary to qualify for the median
priced home under prevailing interest
rates a higher number means greater
affordability so that's pretty
interesting because mortgage rates have
gone up so dramatically the past few
weeks but even when you factor that in
there's been enough of a shift in
pricing that the housing affordability
index and and perhaps also this is
looking at median household income and I
don't track that very closely but
perhaps median household income has gone
up a little bit lately but long story
short people are able to afford a little
bit more housing than they have earlier
in the year but that's still a very low
number like ideally that number is 100
or above because right now the median
household can't afford the median priced
home and buy quite a large number but
it's moving in the right direction we'll
see if it continues to do so inventory
of homes for sale this is the first time
that we have seen out of out of all
these numbers let me say this a
different way out of all of the numbers
that I'm looking at here this is the
number that looks most similar to pre-
pandemic so the inventory of homes for
sale went up
94.3% year-on-year October of last year
insane 94 almost double what it was last
year last year it was 287 homes for sale
and this is the number of properties for
sale and active status at the end of a
given month so it was 287 last year in
at the end of the month of October
and it was
4,54 at the end of October of this
year that is a massive massive increase
and now we are at levels of inventory
that are very very comparable to pre
pandemic pre pandemic we hovered right
around 4,000 so here's where we are
right now that's that's basically
exactly where we are right now and so
that is kind of our first indicator this
is the or maybe let's say this this is
the first Domino to fall of us saying
okay the market has gone back to those
levels now could we see it go even
higher that's when we're going to that's
that's when things are going to start
getting interesting so demand is still
higher so we have Supply that is at
pre-pandemic levels but but demand is
actually based on how I'm seeing
everything still higher than
pre-pandemic levels in the in the
Greenville area so month supply of
inventory still isn't exactly comparable
to what it was back then but if this
number keeps going up if we see
inventory breach the $5,000 range
sorry the 5,000 home range then that
will start to be an indicator okay this
Market is flipping quite a bit the last
time inventory was in the 6,000 home
range we were in a buyer Market now
again with the Demand Being what it is
it might need to go a little bit higher
than that in order to offset the The
increased demand but suffice it to
say if we hit
6,000 homes on Market at the end of
the month 6,000 inventory of homes
for sale it would feel like a buyer
Market dramatically compared to what we
have seen in other
months and and in other years
month supply of inventory if you'll
remember this is tied to the pending
sales number which for the previous
month is not very accurate so this is
the inventory of homes for sale at the
end of a given month divided by the
average monthly pending sales from the
last 12 months so I'm not going to
look at October but we're going to look
at the trend from the past several
months in may we were at well
actually let's go back to when it
bottomed out at one month in March it
was at exactly one month of inventory
which is insane April it went to 1.1 May
1.3 June jumped up a half a point to 1.8
July 2.1 August 2.3 September 2.5 so
we've now seen a pretty steady the past
several months it go up by 0. 2
or3 months and so I suspect that that
will simply continue of course I
think I discussed this before we will
see a jump in this number sooner than
later because what happened is pending
sales for the the month of sorry for
the year of 2021 were very high and so
those have all been down as we
already discussed for
2022 and so once we get the 2021 once
once that number the month's inventory
is only dividing by the pending sales
for the year of
2022 my hunch is that that number is
going to really jump up because the
pending sales for the year 2022 were so
much lower so once we purge out the year
2021 we're going to see month supply of
inventory go it's currently 2.5 it
will for sure go into the threes and I
would not be shocked at all if it
jumps up into into the fours that
would not surprise me at
all what that means historically well
3 and 1 half to 4 and 1/2 month supply
that was basically what we saw pre-
pandemic and so obviously we'll
continue to monitor that and to see what
happens with that so obviously we're
seeing a lot of shifts right now
buyers have way more Homes at their
disposal 4,000 homes now I mean it
wasn't that long ago that just the month
of March and and February of this year
that it was in the
1,400 range so we are almost at the
point of triple the inventory of what
buyers had in the past winter going into
this winter they for sure will have
triple and maybe close to quadruple what
they had in the winter of of this
past year so if you're looking to buy
there are some opportunities out there
and I'm starting to see my business
shift already in a way where it's less
the retail buyer getting on board and
and looking to to buy and more the
investors looking at opportunities that
are out there there are some investing
opportunities that there haven't been
now for several years and so my business
right now has has really shifted to
investors and and their interests
retail buyers are a lot of them are in
wait and see mode they're they're trying
to figure out what's what's going to
keep
happening is the market going to
really recede and and what's going to
happen with with mortgage rates at the
end of the day I always say don't
time the market I'm not a big fan of
doing that so you we don't know what the
Market's going to do we don't know when
it's going to bottom out we don't know
if prices are going to go down it
might be interesting to wait until the
end of this year into January of next
year to kind of see if the medium
price point Falls below seasonal
averages but outside of that I I
think that people need to be focused if
if you're looking to purchase and if
you're if you're looking to move you you
would be better served
to see if there's actually a house that
comes on the market that you can afford
that you actually like because that's
the hardest thing right now for a lot
of people is just finding what they want
in a PR at a price point that they can
afford and if you find that then
great if you don't find it then maybe
wait it out and see hey is the market
going to correct to a point where now I
can afford these things at the very
least you have more options than you've
had in a very very long time 4,000
plus homes to look at and potentially
make offers on that is great if you're a
buyer I'm going to I'm going to look
right now to see in the multiple
listing service what as of me recording
this in the residential category what is
active interestingly right now it's
at
3,49 active and that includes oh sorry
hold on I need to correct a few
things all right I have corrected those
things
3,283 that includes single family homes
condos Mobile Homes
modular and mixed use
properties so it's actually it's
actually a bit lower and so this may be
an indicator that the month of November
that the new listings are going to go
away down and and this is kind of what I
expect to a certain extent I what
happens in any Market is buyers and
sellers they adjust and they change
their habits and so it would not Shock
me at all if sellers decide not to sell
and thereby by new listings go down I
already said I expect them to go down
really for the foreseeable future it's
really just I mean if it went down to
from 4,000 to 3,000 inventory while
demand is going down as much as it is
and that would be an indicator that new
listings are going way way way down
that would be a bit of a surprise to me
but we'll have to keep keep track of
that and keep seeing what the market is
doing right now if you're selling it
it's it's still a good Market to sell in
it's not a bad Market to sell in
because remember we're talking about pre
pandemic pre- pandemic that was still a
sellers Market it's just wasn't a crazy
insane s market so don't forget that
if you're looking to buy it's still not
a buyer market so don't mistake it for
that but it is a much more
comfortable Market than you've had in a
long time you can now go out on a
weekend and look at multiple properties
that have listed over the past few weeks
and then take a second look at them
and then maybe make an offer that isn't
for full price and you're not going to
immediately lose out on a gazillion
houses like was the case earlier this
year so all of that said I would
love to hear from you guys if any of you
have any real estate needs that you like
to be covered buying selling anything
like that I'm your guy and all my
contact information is in the show notes
if you need to reach out to me for any
of that type of stuff please subscribe
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we'll talk again next time
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