Hello everyone and Welcome to another
episode of Selling Greenville your
favorite real estate podcast here in
Greenville South Carolina I'm your host
as always Stan McCune realtor right here in
the Greenville area of South Carolina
and you can find all of my contact
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little riew under that and I'd really
appreciate that today I'm going to be
talking about this upcoming year
actually by the time I released this
podcast it will already be the year 2023
I'm recording this on New Year's Eve
because I will actually be out of
town next week so I want to make sure
that I I get this recording down but I'm
looking ahead towards this new year
which like I said by the time I'm
releasing this it will already be the
new year and I'm trying to think about
what is going to happen we talked a
little bit last week about reviewing
2022 previewing 2023 but I like to spend
a little bit more time typically just
thinking about what the new year will
actually bring so I wanted to come up
with a bold
predictions episode of this show for the
year 2023 here are 10 things that as I'm
looking towards the new year that I
think will happen now I want to try to
keep track of these throughout the year
because I'm sure I won't go 10 for 10
like there's a very good chance that I
won't go 10 for 10 who knows I might not
even go five for Five for 10 I don't
know but I want to go ahead and put this
out there and we can track how well I do
so 10 bold predictions for the year 2023
with number one being that mortgage
rates will hit low or mid fives at some
point in the year I believe this for a
few different reasons one is that we
already know the FED is slowing down
their rate increases there's a
prediction that that most people
believe that in January and February the
FED will raise rates by 25 basis
points which is in contrast to
most of this past year they were doing
75 Point increases and so this should
help once we get past hopefully February
hopefully those increases will stop and
I think that that those increases are
already kind of B into the rate what I
do think is going to happen is at some
point for one reason or another that
rates are going to come down I think
that there there could be a few
different reasons for that so I'm not
going to speculate on on one of them but
I do think that the FED has probably
they they've shown they've tipped their
hand a little bit that they like to
Tinker okay this Federal Reserve they
like to Tinker in markets they like to
Tinker with the economy they like to
think that they really have a tremendous
amount of control over what's happening
and so I think at some
point maybe rates will just come down
organically on their own because they're
already kind of artificially inflated in
contrast to what the FED is doing but I
think as well the FED may bring rates
down before the end of the year perhaps
in response to recession or something
like that again I don't know for sure
but generally speaking I feel like
there are a lot of ways where we could
end where we could find ourselves by the
end of 2023 with mortgage rates which
have been hovering in the high sixes
lately we could see them coming back
down into the low to mid fives I believe
that that's going to happen we'll see um
number two my number two bold prediction
for 2023 is that the US will experience
a mild recession with the result that
real estate closings will be down 10 to
15% year on-ear I
do agree with kind of the consensus that
it does appear that we'll be going into
a mild recession now this is a little
bit tricky because by some metrics we
have been in recession in 2022 and that
that was a big debate you know earlier
this year it's like oh we've got had
multiple months of negative GDP all that
isn't that typically how you define a
recession um well I agree with the
Biden Administration that you do have to
account for unemployment being
historically low like in a recession you
never see historically low unemployment
so I'm not exactly sure who's going to
ultimately determine like when we're
actually in recession but I think it
needs to be a combination of looking at
the GDP and then also looking at U at
unemployment and I think that we will
see it's pretty clear that the that the
FED has said that they want to see
unemployment go up in order to cool down
the economy in order to slow down
inflation um so I do believe that that's
going to happen and with that some sort
of mild recession will occur now I could
be wrong on multiple levels I could be
wrong maybe we won't have a recession or
perhaps on the flip side of it maybe we
will and maybe it'll be something way
worse than mild I know that Elon Musk
has said that we're going to have a
severe recession in 2023 I don't know
um all I know is that the from a
housing standpoint whatever happens in
2023 should look a lot different than
what happened in 2008 because that was a
housing recession um what we would have
potentially in 2023 if we go into
recession it will impact housing but
more indirectly whereas in previously we
had a recession that was caused by the
housing market that would not be the
case this time around based on what I'm
seeing um so at the very least even if
the recession is more severe than I'm
predicting I I still think that closings
at least in the Greenville Market will
only be down 10 to 15% year
onye which is not a very big decrease
when you consider that closing things
have been at record highs for a while um
so to only have a 10 10 to 15% decrease
year on-year that would be a a pretty
good sign for our economy for our
housing market um if that happened
during a recession um my bold prediction
number three is that median home prices
so median being you know the middle
number and a sequence of numbers the one
that we typically look at to kind of get
a sense of what the average house costs
because if if you look at the middle
number that's more accurate than looking
at the entire average because the
average is skewed by a handful of
very expensive homes so we look at the
median the medium home prices I
believe in 2023 will stabilize but will
not go down i' we've been talking about
this before where I'm looking at the
price to see if it goes down during this
winter season below or near
$285,000 that would indicate prices are
actually going down more than the
seasonal Norm um I believe based on what
I'm seeing that home prices will
stabilize that will start to go back to
this normal of of 2 to
5% um increase year onye but that we
will not see prices actually go down
that we won't actually see a scenario in
which homes are cheaper now than they
were a year ago and I have a few reasons
for believing that um really the the
primary reason is that the Greenville
Market is a resilient Market
and we have more sustainable demand than
most other areas what I mean by that um
is that if you look at areas that have
seen you know major population booms
parts of California parts of Texas parts
of Florida in a lot of these in
instances we see kind of a gold rush
type of mentality so for instance Austin
had this Gold Rush type of of experience
where you had all these Silicon Valley
people moving there and I guess they're
still experiencing that to some extent
but that that can't happen forever I
know that Boise Idaho has had something
similar now I think that Boise is maybe
a little bit more sustainable um but I
also think that without knowing that
market super well it seems a lot of that
is just driven by cheap prices that
people are just flocking there because
it's like okay here's a city that has
cheap prices um and so some of these
things can't last forever the Boise one
maybe Boise can sustain it um I don't
think Austin will I think several other
cities that have really seen major
increases in population in recent years
are due to see a tapering of that it's
just not some of these growth numbers
that I see just aren't sustainable the
economics aren't there Greenville on the
other hand has had people moving here
for Su what I'm going to call
sustainable reasons I don't mean it's
sustainable from like a climate
perspective I mean sustainable from a
from an economic perspective um people
move here because it's a nice climate
that's not changing anytime soon
because it's a smaller city that has
big city amenities that's not changing
anytime soon it's it's always going to
be a small City the local government is
ensuring that um people are moving here
because we have a state and local
government that respects private
property rights and keeps taxes fairly
low that's not changing anytime soon so
all of these dynamics that cause people
to want to move to South Carolina and
specifically Greenville from outside of
the state those Dynamics aren't going
away and on the flip side that means we
have a high retention rate because
people moving potentially moving from
Greenville somewhere else they're
finding that oh it's more expensive oh
there's less private property rights
here than what I'm used to I don't like
that um all of these different things
and so we just have a consistent
pipeline of people and we've had this
for a long time that want something
different than what they're getting in
the areas they're moving to Greenville
from and I and once they get here they
stay and so I think that that these
things will continue and will continue
to make Greenville an
attractive location for people to
move to and to stay to to stay at in the
foreseeable future I don't see that
we're having some kind of a gold rush
that's just going to to taper off I
think that the economics that the
everything about Greenville that makes
Greenville attractive I think will
continue to make it attractive in the
years to come and I think that that
means that we're going to see resilience
in home prices that's where I'm trying
to Circle all this back to is that those
median home prices that a lot of people
are are reaching out to me and saying
you know hey our price is going to go
down our price is going to go down
what's going to happen um I'm not
prepared to see prices go down because I
I see on the ground from my perspective
what's happening in this area and to me
we're going to see a stabilizing effect
on the flip side we didn't have the type
of boom that other places had people
this might sound crazy to people because
of how much prices went up for our area
but prices didn't go up as much in
Greenville as they went up in some other
areas so the highs are lower in
Greenville than other areas because we
don't have that Gold Rush type of of
flocking here that other areas had um
but the the lows are higher so
Greenville is just generally speaking a
more stable market and and I anticipate
that continuing to happen um on the flip
side if we want to talk about average
home prices which then are skewed by
those by those more expensive homes I
would anticipate that at some point this
year we will see a year-on-year decrease
in averages and the reason why I believe
that in average home prices the reason
why I believe that is that I think that
those higher priced homes are not going
to sell as much as they have the past
couple of years as wealthier people and
those buying second home see their net
wealth go down I mean we're already
seeing this people as the stock market
has kind of struggled I think it's
rebounded a little bit recently but
people have seen their net worth really
go down the the wealthier population and
those were the people buying obviously
those expensive homes those those second
homes on the lake those types of things
and so I think that um we'll see this
for the rest of the year to the extent
that at some point we're going to see
average home prices even though median
home prices I think won't go down I
think we will see the average go down as
those more expensive homes either don't
sell or don't even come on the market
and we've already seen average prices
unlike the median prices we've already
seen average home prices according to
the greater Greenville Association
Realtors have gone down month on Monon
for four straight months and and likely
once we get the numbers for December it
will be five straight months so it's
only a matter of time before the year
on-year numbers reflect what we're
already seeing in the month-on-month
numbers but that has not been the case
with the median price points so this is
why it's important to differentiate
between these two the average home
prices have so much of those expensive
homes baked in whereas the median kind
of tells us more what's happening Market
wide number five my number five bold
prediction for 2023 is that National
foreclosure rates will remain at alltime
lows this is what a lot of people don't
fully understand foreclosure rates are
really really low and
they should continue to stay low now
there is a little bit of concern that
there is still believe it or not a lot
of covid forbearance and things like
that that is that's coming out of the
market that could cause us to see a
little bit of a spike in foreclosure
rates but even if we see that it will
still everything that I'm looking at
datawise suggests that foreclosure rates
will still stay very very low the reason
why people go into foreclosure is when
they end up having negative equity on
their house so they can't list their
house and sell it they also can't make
payments on their house um if they sell
it they'll owe more than they'll owe to
the bank because they have negative
equity and they don't have the money to
do that it doesn't make sense to do that
so instead they just foreclose and and
you know try to find a way to to rent
for the foreseeable future until they're
able to to get their credit to recover
well foreclosure rates have been low for
a long time and I think that will
continue because we have seen his
historically High down payments for the
past couple of years homes that have
been bought the the past two two and a
half years have had historically High
down payments and the average homeowner
right now has way more equity in their
home than we've really ever seen because
we also in addition to the high down
payments we also saw um homes gain
Equity more dramatically than they
normally do as a result of
inflation so and we've talked about this
at at other times in this podcast long
story short people have a lot of equity
in their homes their homes would have to
lose an incredible amount of value for
that Equity to dissipate and so if
someone finds themselves in a situation
let's say the unemployment does go up
and so then they have to um they they
can no longer afford the home that
they're in at that point they have
recourse they can just sell they might
not sell for as much as they hope that
they would be able to by this point but
they will have the ability to sell
because they have enough equity and so
um that's what we're going to see rather
than foreclosures we're going to see
people that are starting to get behind
on their mortgage payments they're going
to have the ability to just list their
home for sale and move to something
cheaper
um that is also a big factor in why I
think that median home prices will
stabilize because what typically is the
driver of home prices actually going
down that's typically foreclosures
foreclosures are UL Ely what really
drives prices down so in the absence of
a major foreclosure type of event um and
we could we could obviously see that if
the recession is worse than I'm
anticipating um if we have more Wars and
things like that we could absolutely see
foreclosure Skyrocket but right now I
don't see it and in the absence of that
I think that prices will remain fairly
stable and and will we go back to the
prepandemic Norms of moderate increases
in home values
number six my number six bold prediction
for 2023 is that Greenwall will see its
first increase in housing affordability
since
2011 um and so we measure housing
affordability the the greater Greenville
Association of Realtors has a housing
affordability index where it kind of
factors in how expensive a home is with
current prevailing mortgage rates and
then also looks at kind of what's the
median household income and then
determines okay what percentage of the
median home can the median household
income purchase um and we want that
number to be over 100 typically that
means that the median household can
purchase your average median home medium
priced home um but that number has been
well below 100 now for for quite
some time since we've come into the
pandemic um and it's just been
constantly going down I think that we're
going to see housing afford ility go
back up for the first time since 2011
the reason why I think that is that
interest rates I think will come down as
I've already said appreciation will slow
but you combine all of that with um
employers are going to have to make
higher pay raises than normal so as we
factor in What's happen what people
can't afford which is again a part of
that equation that should all end up in
favor of those who are looking to buy so
I think will become a bit more
affordable over the next year when you
factor all of those things in um does
that mean that it will go back up to 100
where the median household is a to able
to afford the median priced home I don't
know about that I'm I'm not sure that
I'm ready to to quite jump to that
conclusion because that housing
affordability index is still very very
low I believe um let me look it up real
quick gjr Market stat
I had these pulled up before but I
closed it all right so the housing
affordability index for November was
78 so yeah we we've the last time it
was over 100 was January of
2021 yep so we're now approaching almost
2 years since it was at or over 100 I
don't see that getting back up to 100
but could it go into the mid to high 80s
could it maybe even hit the '90s I think
that that's very reasonable given all of
these other things that I that I just
described bold prediction number
seven a little bit different than the
others but I think that Greenville
realtor turnover will exceed 50% within
the next 12 months now I'm not really
sure exactly how to measure this but I
feel confident that this is going to
happen that we're going to see a 50%
turnover realtors in the next 12 months
I'm not the only one predicting this
this actually isn't that bold of a
prediction I just wanted to make sure
that you guys understood because I do
get people from time to time that ask me
what it's like being a realtor should I
become a realtor when's a good time to
become a realtor um you should be aware
that that this is a difficult time to
become a realtor when the market is
Shifting like this and it's shifting in
a way that it's Contracting um Tough
Time tough time to become a realtor I've
got two stories about this um there was
a a guy that I was on committee with
for basically the entirety of 2022 I
was on a a local committee and that's
realtor Associated um and so we were on
this committee together and he was very
involved took it very seriously I took
it seriously but wasn't quite as
involved in him with like events and
different things so we had an end of
year kind of little celebration you
know not nothing very big um and I asked
why he wasn't there after a couple of
hours because I just I had seen him
everywhere
and the the committee organizer said
yeah I don't think he made it um I tried
to reach out to him his phone number is
disconnected he doesn't appear to be a
a realtor anymore and it was just
shocking it was like this was a guy I
had actually even put an had a client
that put an offer on one of his listings
this past year this a guy who who took
everything very seriously seemed like he
was really invested um but the the crazy
thing that's that that's kind of funny
but also kind of sad was that this
committee organizer had said that this
person um recently had had been asked
hey can you go do such and so for for
the association can you almost like that
they needed someone to to go somewhere
to drop something off or something like
that um and I don't I don't remember the
specifics of it but he said something
like yeah I I don't think so I'm just
trying to figure out you know how I'm
going to afford my next tank of gas
and the organizer thought that he was
just joking you know cuz this guy wasn't
he had kind of a dry sense of humor
but it was like oh no he actually wasn't
joking he actually really was just
trying to find his next tank of gas
so um we're going to see a lot more of
that in the future here as the quote
unquote easy money that's been flowing
through real estate dries up and now it
becomes difficult again where you have
to to scratch and Claw for your real
estate business business that's the
market that we're entering another story
I have from this is um I was at a
company party for cedan Jer realtors
that I'm a part of towards the end of
the year and I sat by someone that I had
never met before and so I was just
stucking up a conversation with him and
you know it was just kind of like I I
figured he was new he was he he was a
realtor for about a year and and so we
were just talking and um he said yeah
it's been kind of a weird year it's like
the vast majority of the money that I
made this past year was from opening
doors for other Realtors well opening
doors for other Realtors what that means
is if you're unavailable if someone
needs to to look at a house let's say
that one of my clients needs to look at
a house but I'm unavailable for one
reason or another I can have someone
else with cedan Joiner that's a licensed
realtor helped me out by opening the
door for my client letting them get in
letting them do the showing and then
afterwards I debrief with them and talk
with them about you know what they
thought about it what they want to do
how they want to move forward well the
the going rate for that is about $50 per
door so if you um if you open you know
if if you do a showing for another
realtor typically they pay you about 50
bucks that's kind of what the
expectation is but it's not needed
that often right at the end of the day
like most real are trying to do as many
of these showings as they can for their
own clients because that's a big it it's
actually challenging for me I can make
it work obviously but it's a it's
challenging for me if I don't see the
house with my client I don't know what
they're thinking what they're saying in
the moment um I can't be as much of a of
of an assistant to them and as much of a
sounding board as I typically am when
that happens again we can work through
it but it's just if I'm if I can do it
if I can do the showing I'm going to do
the showing so the vast majority of
Realtors are trying not to Outsource
these to other Realtors but it happens
sometimes obviously there are times when
we're out of town there's times when we
already have things planned when someone
is is available to look at a house
whatever the case may be well this
realtor who has been a realtor for a
year and during the year when it was
probably about the easiest time ever to
be a realtor he shared with me that most
of the money that he had made the past
year was just from opening doors for
other Realtors so 50 bucks a pop and
that just blew my mind mind and I I
wanted to encourage the guy but I was
just thinking to myself man this is
going to be a tough year buddy I hope
you've got something else in the
pipeline here to to back you up in case
things really get bad because there's
going to be a lot fewer doors to open
that's just the reality of of the
situation um and so all of that to be
said the
these I think that that we're going to
see a lot of this type of thing
happening and we should expect some
pretty substantial realtor turnover um
and and by the way just kind of a
Shameless plug um but you
should a lot of people don't consider
when they are assessing different
realtors of whether the realtor will
actually even be in the business in a
few months you know if you're looking to
buy or to sell a house and right now
that's taking longer than it normally
would um like imagine if you were
working with a realtor who during the
time
that you are looking for houses or
looking to sell your house that Realtor
has to get a full-time job because
they're not making enough money now
they're attention is divided and they're
not necessarily able to help you out
fully so one thing a major major
consideration when people are looking at
Realtors and considering who who to work
with that a lot of people forget is will
this person actually still be doing this
a you know two or 3 months from now a
year from now that's a very important
question that almost never gets asked T
um and obviously a person is going to
say well yeah I'm going to be doing this
a year from now um but there are better
ways of going about asking that question
how many years have you been doing it
the 90% of Realtors drop out before
their fifth anniversary um how many
closings did you have the past year
questions like this that help you to
kind of understand okay here's what
here's what to expect if if it's a
realtor that's only been in the business
for a year and a half and they've only
had you know 10 closing that entire time
um you might have cause for concern
that might be a realtor that's not going
to be able to help you in the future so
that's just kind of that's just
something to help you guys out in
Greenville or not in Greenville you know
you might be looking to sell a home in
Texas or California or
Florida um if when you're selecting when
you're looking at your realtor
definitely consider that how long
they've been in the business how many
closings they've had all these types of
things all right prediction number eight
I believe that inventory will stay below
pre-pandemic level so there total number
of homes for sale at any given time will
stay below pre-pandemic levels however
month supply of inventory May
temporarily go above pre-pandemic level
so month supply is a metric that we look
at that looks at both the supply and the
demand how many pending sales are there
in comparison to how many homes are on
the market month supply has been very
very low it was in the the ones and twos
for a really long time it's it's quickly
approaching the threes pre-pandemic
Norms was in was between four and five
um I could totally see that month supply
temporarily going above pre-pandemic
levels so perhaps into the fives um
whereas actual total inventory I think
will stay below pre-pandemic levels
which would have been around 4,000 to 45
100 homes on the market and and so what
I'm saying here is that I think that
weakened demand through this year and
will be coupled by weaken Supply but
that the weaken demand will outpace the
weaken Supply so that what we'll see is
that the months of inventory will end up
going up because demand is weakened and
the total inventory will kind of
stabilize and will not exceed
prepandemic Norms because Supply is
lower than it normally is and there's a
reason why I believe this I I think
we're entering an extended period of
time now where people who purchased
their homes two plus years ago and might
be candidates now to sell people that
typically would be selling around this
time and buy something bigger or
nicer are going to choose instead to
enjoy their low mortgage rates you know
3% rates on their cheap homes a home
that now you know if they if they
upgraded they'd have to pay way more
than they did when they moved and so
we're going to see people that normally
would be selling this year next year the
year after that will really have a hard
time making that choice because they are
paying so much less than they would if
they ended up selling and moving but
again I still see the month supply of
inventory which factors in not just
Supply but also demand going up before
it goes back down at least for the
next few months so we'll have to have to
keep tracking that and see if I'm right
on that
prediction prediction number nine
days on Market until sale will reach its
highest point since
2016 what that would mean is that
days on Market until sale would end up
approaching probably nearly 3 months so
we have been historically in the lowest
ever days on Market until sale which is
basically from the time a home is listed
until the time an offer is accepted in a
given month for the greater Greenville
Association Realtors it's been in the
20s and 30s really for the past two
years 20 to 30 days on Market until an
offer is accepted pre-pandemic that
number was more like in the 60s to
70s was kind of more than Norm or even
the 50s to 7 50s to 60s 7s something
like that so rough l two months you know
is what you can what you could expect on
average from the time you list a home
until the time it goes under contract
that feels like an eternity right now um
but remember even one month would
have felt like an eternity this this
past couple of years and the average was
still 20 to 30 days and so what that
means is that this average is weighted
heavily by the homes that don't sell
for several months and that number is
then obviously
impacted by the homes that go under
contract like right away so you've got
all these homes that go under contract
right away but then what's pulling that
number into the 20s and 30s is all these
homes that go under contract after 3
four five 6 months okay so all that to
be said this number what I would
expect and what I'm kind of expecting
because of of how quickly the market
flipped I think this number is going to
potentially go way up I could totally
see it surpassing and what I'm
predicting is that it will surpass the
pre-pandemic Norms which would have been
around two months I could totally
see it going into the 70s or 80 day
range I think that that's completely
completely reasonable I think that
what what we saw is a lot of people that
listed homes you know right around
the time the market flipped but they
didn't account for the fact that the
market was flipping was was doing
what it was doing and changing
gears from this insane sellers Market to
a much slower market and so we've got a
lot of homes that are just lingering
right now well once those homes sell and
it shows that they were on the market
for 120 150 days whatever the case may
be that's going to pull that number that
days on Market until sale number way up
is what's going to happen there so
I anticipate as a lot of these homes
that listed at the wrong time and and
with unrealistic expectations eventually
those sellers will sell them here in the
next year and once they sell them and
this is particularly true of of new
construction right new construction is
really lingering once we start to get
this glut of new construction sold
that's been on the market for forever
we're going to see that days on Market
until sale number go way way way up
and so I'm just waiting to see that
the most recent number for this was
November and it was 35 days which is
the highest it's been in a long time so
let's continue to to track that I could
totally see that doubling before the end
of the year my number 10 prediction
is that cheap fixer uppers will appear
again as people reset their expectations
I just mentioned a lot of people kind of
got caught out in the cold as the market
shifted well as people now are are have
been in this market now for several
months and they're they're starting to
realize and and Realtors are are
starting you know realtors that maybe
had never been through a market switch
like this are starting to realize hey we
need to adjust our expectations one
thing that you could get away with for
the past couple of years was just to put
a fixer upper home on the market for
just a hair below what a turnkey home
would sell for and you could find a
buyer for it because inventory was so
low buyers had no other choice but to
just purchase those fixer uppers well
that's different now now there's plenty
of options out there if you're looking
for any type of home and so people are
just ignoring those fixer upors they're
just saying you know forget it we don't
we don't need to to buy a fixer upper
home we'll just wait for a home
that's TurnKey that's just going to be a
little bit more money to come on the
market so what's going to happen is
these sellers looking to sell these
fixer upper homes but don't have the
money to fix them up themselves they're
going to have to to go back down to the
norm which was fact in in that it's a
fixer upper like it has to be a reduced
price in comparison to to homes that
aren't fixer uppers and so I think we're
going to see a lot more cheap homes that
need work coming on the market because
sellers are going to realize gone are
the days where they could just list it
for close to retail and get pretty close
to that price now they're going to have
to put those heavy fixer upper discounts
on those homes and that's going to make
it very interesting for people buying in
this Market we might see things
shift to where you could actually buy
homes that you could flip from MLS that
those types of opportunities have been
pretty sparse lately but we may see that
come back we'll have to see but I
anticipate in my 10th bold prediction
here that we will see cheap fixer uppers
appearing again as sellers reset their
expectations so those are my bold
predictions for 2023 I've got all of
these written out so I will be
tracking these feel free to track them
myself track them yourself and let
me know if I miss out on any of
course I've got 12 months for all of
these to come true so I feel pretty
good about that we will see what
happens I am happy to keep
accountability for whether my
predictions come to pass or not so
we'll see let me know if you agree or
disagree with any of these my contact
information is in the show notes if you
need to reach out to me for any of your
real estate needs or just to tell me
that you think my predictions are wrong
feel free to do that I have thick skin
it will not bother me as well please
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