Hello everyone and Welcome to another
episode of selling Greenville your
favorite real estate podcast here in
Greenville South Carolina I'm your host
as always Stan McCune realtor right here
in the Greenville area and you can find
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now
it is and we had a good response
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show notes all right enough of that
we're going to jump right in to the ggar
market stats which just came out
for the month oh oh boy yeah as you can
see there's going for those of you
watching on video there's going to be
some some quirky things that happen
for sure so just bear with me but we
have the gjar market stats for the month
of February and there is a lot of Juicy
information here that I'm excited to get
and to get in front of you guys so
we're just going to jump right in and
start with what is going on with the
market specifically with new listings
new listings
and and I'm I'm going to help you guys
again I'm I'm I want this to always
remain audio friendly but I am going to
have to make a few adaptations for those
that are that are watching this on video
if my adaptations go too far and make it
difficult to understand on audio please
please share that feedback with me
but new listings we had for the month
of February 2023 we had 1
456 new listings that was almost
unchanged from 2022 which was 1
468 new listings a slight decrease year
on year but but basically the same right
m and and these numbers tend to get
tweaked over time
as more data comes in gjar the
greater Greenville Association of
Realtors tends to update these
numbers in in future months
so it's it's very possible that that
these numbers end up being
basically exactly the same but they're
close enough as it is so we had had a
trend from October through December of
of 2022 where we have had
year-on-year decreases in new listings
after
a long while where we had increases
January reversed the trend where we
had a 7.9 percent increase year on year
of of new listings so that was
interesting but then we dropped back
down in February I think that this has
ramifications in a lot of different ways
and we're going to see that as we
go along but needless to say we need
these new listings numbers to go way way
up for us to see major changes in
inventory these are still it needs to be
higher than what it was last year and so
far we've only had one month out of
the past four that has seen an
increase year on year
so that from from the standpoint if
you're a buyer in this market that's not
a positive if you're a seller you're
probably a little bit happy that
inventory stayed flat for the month of
February year on year
pending sales all right this is the
warning that I give every single time we
go through these stats this is never
right for the most recent month so we're
looking at February which is the most
recent month that we have data for this
number
that's going to be in here which is 784
pending sales for the month of February
that is absolutely wrong there is it is
not going to be at 784 it's going to be
much higher than that next month we'll
see how much higher it is so what we're
actually going to do is we're going to
go back two months to the month of
January 2023 what was that number and
this is very interesting so the pending
sales for January 2023 was
1121 which is a 12.6 decrease year on
Year from January 2022.
now if that sounds really bad that's
actually
from a pending sales standpoint from
from the standpoint of of homes going
under contract
this is actually a pretty modest
number because December was down 26.6
November 28.7 October 25.2 you have to
go all the way back to July of 2022 to
find a month that had a a lower year on
year or yeah a lower decrease year
on year in pending sales so what that
tells me is we're starting at least
we started to see at the beginning of
this year the market kind of resemble a
little bit more of of what 2022 looked
like at least the start of 2023
resembled in a lot of ways the start of
2022.
now I don't want to draw any major major
conclusions from that because everything
is different versus the start of 2022
but it was interesting that after three
straight months of declines in the 25
to 30 percent range year on year we
dropped down in January to only a 12.6
decline in pending sales I've been
saying that I I feel like absent a major
recession or a major war or something
like that I think we're going to have a
a strong year particularly a strong a
strong
spring and summer season here in the
Greenville market and at least based on
the pending sales numbers and we'll
obviously start looking at some other
numbers
um that would start to validate my
belief
this February number 784 that's going
to be way off that's simply not going
to be accurate and I'm going to
pull something up to
and and apologize for my video those
that looking at this on YouTube
because again I have no idea what I'm
doing here I'm I'm we're figuring this
all out together
um so the I want to go back to
February's pending sales so in February
it said that January's numbers were 741
and then that ended up getting revised
once they came out with with the
numbers for
it this most recent month they revised
January from 741 to 1121 so that's a
massive increase
um where and a massive correction on
pending sales so this is what I'm
talking about so this number for
February 784 this is probably going to
be corrected to around like 1200. so we
probably had closer to 1200 pending
sales for the for the month of February
um which if that's the case then that's
going to be a pretty a pretty
sizable but probably comparable to
January decline because February of 2022
was 1 365 pending sales so we're
probably looking at somewhere in the
between 10 to 15 percent decrease but
we'll have to wait year on year
decrease but we'll have to wait until
next month to see exactly how that
plays out so pending sales it's the
count of properties in which offers have
been accepted in a given month
um we are still at very low numbers
overall
um but those numbers are not as awful as
some of the news headlines might make
you think at least for the Greenville
area now pending sales tend to Trail
closed sales by about a month right a
month to two months so if you have a a
really strong pending sales month then
the next one to two months that will be
reflected in the closed sales data
and so that's what we saw as well
February 2023 had 1023 closed sales
which was only a 12 decrease versus
February of 2022 which is all 1162. so
that decrease if we compare that to
January December and November and
October that is a much smaller decrease
than all of those other four months
ahead so we're starting to see the
market again starting to see some
stabilization more closed sales
happening towards the end of the year
people really started to pull back but
it seems like now people are starting to
come to grips with the new normal that
is the market that's like okay these
interest rates these mortgage rates
they're not going down anytime soon
prices are still going up what that
means is that it I think a lot of buyers
are coming to the conclusion of like
okay
I just have to bite the bullet I just
have to go ahead and go under contract
and make a purchase because whatever I'm
waiting for whether it's rates to go
down or prices to go down none of that
is happening and so we just need to
to go ahead and and move forward now
historically you can look if you're on
YouTube you can see the graphic
this
closed sales number is still a very very
low number this is the the lowest number
that we've seen since 2021.
so it's still very light from a closed
sales standpoint it's still a difficult
time for a lot of Realtors right now
there's just not a lot of business
happening in comparison to the past few
years
um but it's not as bad as it could be if
we were following the trend of the past
several months it would be really really
bad I mean January was down
30.4 year on year in terms of closed
sales
um and and we felt that we all felt that
I told you guys you know I think
it was back in either late January early
February how I went to a conference in
Columbia and Realtors were saying about
how there was just no closings up to
that point basically for the entire year
but then all of a sudden they were
staying really busy and they saw all of
a sudden a bunch of stuff coming up in
their pipeline that's that's what a lot
of us that are better experienced what
we've been seeing
um days on Market until sale the average
number of days between when a property
is listed and when an offer is accepted
in a given month
that went up a whopping
93.3 year on year it went from 30 days
on Market until sale in 2022 February
2022 to 58 days in February of 2023 and
that's a even a big month-on-month
decree increase from January when it
was 49. now I've been telling you guys
you guys that have been long time
listeners of the show I've been telling
you this days on Market till sale until
sale number it has not topped out we are
going to continue to see the Skyrocket
and the reason for that is we have so
many people so many sellers in the
market that did not account for the
market correction and they're just
assuming you know like in the past for
for two two and a half years we had
market conditions where you could
overprice a home by 10 and just wait it
out for a few months and someone would
buy it but we're in a market right now
where if you overpriced your home by 10
people aren't even looking at it
um if you overpriced your home by five
percent it's going to linger and
languish on the market for a long time
if you overpriced your home by just a
few thousand it's going to sit on the
market for several months and so what's
going to happen is Sellers and we're
already seeing this sellers are going to
come to their senses and realize that
they need to start dropping prices or
people are going to come in with global
offers over after several months of of
something being listed on the market and
sellers are going to accept that that
and what we're going to see is we're
going to see that inflate these days on
Market until say all of these sellers
that overpriced their homes and so their
homes are are just lingering and
languishing on the market once they go
under contract finally if they go under
contract after they've been on the
market for 100 120 days
um that is going to cause this number to
go up now
um pre-pandemic this number was you know
it would sometimes go up above 60.
um you know in the in in the months
and and years just kind of following the
pandemic but usually it was in the
more in the mid 50s range so we're
already seeing this number surpass what
it was pre-pandemic being at 58 and I
think it's going to keep going up I
think we're gonna probably see it go at
least into the 70s at some point but
that doesn't mean that you should expect
if you list your home for to have to
wait for two two and a half months for
it to go under contract that is only if
you do not list your home correctly
either
it's not marketed correctly or it's
overpriced those are the only reasons
why it should and that I should hedge
one other thing if you have a home with
really unique features for instance a
very very you know unique two and a half
million dollar you know luxury home
um obviously those take longer to sell
and that that's just kind of the way it
it always has been
um but if you have you know a standard
350 000 home Riverside School District
in Greer or Five Forks or whatever
um it should not be taking more than a
few weeks at the most to go under
contract if it was priced correctly and
marketed correctly
um so that's just something to keep in
mind median sales price all right this
is the juiciest thing that we have on
here we have our first in a very very
long time our first year on year decline
in the median sales price now for those
that are new to listening to this we
don't really look at the average sales
price very much when we're looking at
sales price data because the average is
heavily inflated by by months where
luxury homes are sold if in the
Grainville Market where the average
price point is around three hundred
thousand dollars if you have a month
where a bunch of million plus dollar
home sell that average price point
skyrockets it goes way up
disproportionately just because of a few
homes
so we look at the median which is the
middle number and a sequence of numbers
and that really kind of gives us a
better idea of what's happening in the
market and so we had it it's ggar shows
as a zero percent increase or decrease
but in reality it was a slight decrease
it went from 290 000 in February sorry
it was a slight
um increase I I've been saying decrease
it was a slight increase from 289 900 in
February 2022 it went up only a hundred
dollars to 290
000. now that is a juicy stat right
because we've been seeing
um obviously you know when the market
was crazy we would see
routinely medium price median sales
price increases of of 20 or more
um this year
um and and the past six months we hadn't
seen anything less than 2.4 percent
which was December of 2022 last month it
bounced back up to 6.5
you're on your increase for January
this month only a hundred dollar
increase year on year which is
essentially a zero percent increase year
on year now I've been saying this again
the entire year so far we've that we've
been doing the show that I've been
watching this number very closely to see
if it goes below 285
000 because that would tell me if we had
a a greater than seasonal decrease so
normally what happens is we see we see
normally
every year a peak in the median sales
price during the summer and then it
comes back down during the fall and
winter season and then it goes back up
during the spring and summer season that
is the seasonality of the market if
you're looking on YouTube you can see
this happen there were the 2021 was
an anomaly where it peaked towards the
end of the year and in 2020 as well but
you look at every other year there is a
peak in the summer in the spring or
summer and that is the way it always
does and then it falls back down and
then it comes back up and the the Peak
from the successive summer so what we
should see is we we should see the peak
for this summer for this spring or
summer it should be higher than the peak
that we had in 2022 or else we are
seeing prices decline but what I'm
looking at in real time is and what I've
been telling you guys is I've been
looking for the median sales price is
again going to go below 285 000 that's
the number that I have determined from
all of the data that I've looked at for
the Greenville Market that would mean
that we are experiencing a greater than
normal a greater than seasonal decrease
in prices that would that would
constitute an actual price prices
going down actually decreasing based
on what I think so we're very close to
that okay because this is the lowest
number this 290 000 number this is the
lowest number that we've seen in a year
or or close to a year
um so so we'll have to keep track of
that we'll have to see what happens in
in in March I'm very curious to see
my hunch is that this number is going to
come back up in the month of March I
don't think we're gonna see it Go below
290 000 because there's a lot of
activity in the pipeline we've seen
those pending sales numbers are stronger
than than perhaps many thought they
would be and I think that that's going
to continue to bolster prices going up
and inventory is not going up
um to the extent that most thought it
would now I've been saying for a long
time I I think inventory is going to
stay fairly low and that's exactly what
we're seeing so I think all the Dynamics
um this may very well be the bottom for
the Year this 290 000 but if it's not if
it's not the bottom if we see it go down
in March then that tells you that we're
actually seeing a bit of a housing
recession that said I I do not
personally believe that that's what's
going to happen but we will we'll
certainly keep track of that
um the average for February was up
1.3 year on year again we're not going
to talk about that
um but you can if you're on YouTube you
can see that chart
um the percent of list price received
this is the percentage found when
dividing a property sales price by its
most recent list price so this does not
account for Price drops always keep that
in mind a listing could have dropped its
price and and then gone under
contract this data does not account for
that it takes the most recent list price
and then takes the average for all
properties sold in a given month not
accounting for sour concessions for
instance when a seller pays for the
buyer's closing costs and so you divide
these two numbers and that gives you the
percent of ice the percent of lice yeah
the percent of list price received the
most recent sales price the most
recent list price divided by the
sorry dividing a property sales price by
its most recent list price and then
taking the average for all properties
sold in a given month all right
so we've kind of seen this level out
and you know obviously we had that
insane stretch for what felt like
forever were the percent of list price
received was over a hundred percent Not
only was it over 100 Not only was on
average sellers getting more than what
they listed their homes for they also
weren't having to pay for any buyer
closing costs it was insane
um in August of last year we finally saw
that number dipped below a hundred
percent and that's been steadily
declining until December when it reached
97.9 percent and then basically we
flatlined January was 97.8 February 97.8
percent as well those are both 2.3
percent decreases year on year
um so we may have seen the the bottom of
list price received and this is in my
opinion a pretty healthy number 97.8
that's a number that is pretty
comparable and if you're looking at the
chart you can see it's pretty comparable
to what we saw pre-pandemic
what people were used to for really a
long time has been for that number to be
around 98 Point around 98 so when you've
got a home listed you can expect to get
roughly 98 of what it's listed for and
perhaps to pay for a little bit of buyer
closing costs that is what a seller in
the Greenville Market should expect
right now so that's something to keep in
mind
it appears that the Free Fall of that
number has finally leveled out to what
it basically was in 2019.
um the housing affordability index I'm
not going to spend a lot of time on this
but this is essentially
um well I'm just going to read it
an index of 120 means the median
household income is 120 of what is
necessary to qualify for the median
priced home under prevailing interest
rates a higher number means greater
affordability so we like to see this
number at or above 100 because that
means that the median household can
afford the median priced home it's been
below that number basically since
since 2021 essentially now this is a
positive though we finally it finally
popped back up a little bit month on
month January was at 79 January of this
year and then for February it popped
back up to 82 and that's in spite of the
interest rates being as crazy as they
are now what's what's funny is
um last week for the interview with
Derek we had interviewed that
as Derek pointed out at the end of the
interview on International women's day
which was before Silicon Valley Bank and
a bunch of other banks failed and ended
up having to be basically bailed out
well that has had it and by the way
that was very frustrating for me that it
was like oh I feel like we need to
record this podcast all over again we
didn't
um and hopefully you guys were
understanding of the fact that that
we had no control we there nobody
anticipated that happening but
nonetheless
um the the bank's failing has had a
really a profound impact on a lot of
things and one of those things is that
mortgage rates have come down a little
bit since that time at least that's
that's what I have seen on a few
different indexes
and so we might actually see this
housing affordability index actually
come up a little bit more for the month
of March the only thing we don't know is
again how much our price is going to
increase are we going to see that
continue
um or are we going to see prices
start to to fall back down into that
non-seasonal range we'll have to keep
we'll have to keep track of that
inventory of homes for sale
um this was also a whopping number on
here the inventory was up
144.8 percent year on year for February
it was at 3466
um as opposed to February 2022 is
1416. 3466 though that's still below
what we normally saw pre-pandemic so
that's still a very very low number and
when you factor in that demand even
though demand is is way down versus what
it had been before the FED started
raising rates demand is still stronger
than it was pre-pandemic we still have
way more buyers due to Millennials being
of age due to Baby Boomers having so
much money so much cash you know buying
retirement homes all of that
um and so there's still way more demand
of course Greenville has the steady flow
of people moving here 20 people per day
moving into the Greenville area
and so we have a a steady flow of
just of demand just constant demand and
so this inventory it needs to be higher
for us to see
um you know prices to go down in any
meaningful way or for the market to ease
up beyond what it already is at now the
month's supply of inventory this is um
when we take the inventory of homes for
sale at a given at the end of a given
month divided by the average monthly
pending sales from the last 12 months
now this because pending sales is not
an accurate number
particularly accurate
um for the month of February as I've
already expressed this number is not
going to be especially accurate so so
we'll look back at January and I'm
pretty sure I said this when I went
through these numbers on my last podcast
for the for the month of when they came
out in February for the month of January
I think I said that I expected it to
remain in the two and a half month range
and that's exactly what it did
um February again this is inaccurate it
says 2.8 months of inventory I expect
that to be closer to 2.5 when they
revised this next month still that's
a massive increase from the one month of
inventory that we had in February of
2022 and thank goodness one month of
inventory nobody nobody likes that
that's stressful for everyone I guess
there are some sellers that you know are
excited when their home is the only home
on the market
um but then you have so many showings so
much activity and it's exhausting
um two and a half months of inventory is
still very very low until we see
inventory get up typically until we see
inventory get up more into the six month
range we don't typically consider it
to be an even Market below six months it
is a seller's market above six months
it's a buyer's market now I've made the
argument in other episodes that perhaps
were in a new normal where a buyer's
market is more like four to five months
of inventory very possible there the
market is forever changed after the
pandemic
um and I'm not going to get into all the
details right now on why I think that
might be the case why why the new normal
might be that a buyer's market is
something more like four and a half or
five months of inventory
but
um for now we are still very much
regardless in a sours Market with only
roughly two and a half months of
inventory
I'm not going to get into a whole lot
more of the weeds here
we're still seeing strong closed
sales in the 500 000 to 750 000 range
that ended up being up 31.3 year on year
the million and above range was up 19.5
year on year and the 350 to 500 000
range was up 19.2 percent year on year
so we're seeing a lot more closings
in the between 350
000 and a million and above with the
only exception being 750 to a million
homes in in that price range that they
had 5.5 percent fewer closings year on
year
I think that that's just because
there's not a lot of homes in that in
that price range that are going for sale
we saw a a 4.9 increase in closed sales
between the 250 and 350 000 price point
that's really really good
because that means that there's
enough homes for sale in that price
point that people can buy them that's
been a difficult price point for for
people recently for for buyers and so
I'm very happy to see that that is
increasing
and again I'm not gonna I'm not gonna
get into really anything else there I
think that that is enough for you
guys for now when it comes to the
market stats
so
think in the end here I think we are
going to continue to see a a strong
spring season I think we're going to all
the indicators to me are that
it's going to be very busy
and that it's going to remain in this
hour's Market we're going to continue to
see probably low inventory I think we're
going to see prices kind of reverse
that Trend where they've kind of kind of
flatlined I think we're going to see
median price points start to start to
go back up we'll see if they go back up
if you know like I said if the peak of
this year surpasses the peak of last
year my hunch is that it probably will
but I think I there is a good chance
that it doesn't I mean I would say
there's probably a
30 to 40 percent chance that it doesn't
and if it doesn't then then we'll
know that that the market kind of
recessed a little bit you know
largely due to just the the the
mortgage rates and and all that happened
with that
but everything to me
I guess the positives from what I've
seen
is that things are are kind of
stabilizing we're starting to get a
sense of okay
here is where the market is I think that
sellers are starting to get more
comfortable I think buyers are starting
to get more comfortable people are
starting to learn what this new dance
looks like and that's helpful in a
variety of ways for for everyone but it
makes it easier for me we're starting to
have
real estate Norms again where you know
sellers are finally starting to
understand okay I can't just price this
Fixer-Upper home for top of the market
we're starting to see fixer uppers come
in you know for eighty thousand dollars
ninety thousand dollars we haven't seen
that in a long time people are listing
fixer-uppers for 120 130 000 and in some
instances they were getting that so that
market has been really hit hard and that
market in particular has you know if
anything has caused that Medium price
point to start to drop it's that people
are no longer willing to take big risks
on Fixer-Upper homes they're they're
wanting to see a big discount if a home
is a fixer-upper and that's good that is
healthy that's what we want to see in
the market
and so this is something that we'll
we'll obviously continue to track it'll
be another month before we see the
numbers for for March but the numbers
for February had a lot of interesting
tidbits for us and I hope that you
found that interesting I appreciate you
guys listening as always my contact
information is in the show notes you can
listen to this on whatever podcast
app you want or you can watch it on
YouTube for now the video quality will
be improving in the future but for
now you have to to live with what I have
because I don't have time to to buy a
bunch of equipment and to figure out all
of that at the moment
but I appreciate if you guys could
subscribe to the show if you could leave
a rating if you could leave a review
please do all of those things I'd
appreciate it and I appreciate you guys
listening we will talk again next time