Hello everyone and Welcome to another
episode of Selling Greenville your
favorite real estate podcast here in
lovely Greenville, South Carolina, I'm
your host as always Stan McCune realtor
right here in the Greenville area you
can find all my contact information in
the show notes if you need to reach out
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but today we're going to be talking
about the greater Greenville Association
of Realtors Market stats for the month
of March they were a little bit delayed
producing this they had some kind of
technical difficulties so we're we're
nearing the end of April and we're just
now getting March statistics but I
think this will be really helpful
there's a lot of very interesting things
in the statistics for this month so
we're just going to hop right in and I'm
just going to start right away with
the new listings data
now we we're trying to track a few
different things we're trying to see
where the market is going but we're also
we're looking at things month a month
but as always we're looking at things
year on year and again this is the
Greenville South Carolina data
so some of this data and some of my
conclusions are not necessarily going to
apply to the rest of the country that's
an important thing to keep in mind but
the very first thing we need to look at
is new listings new listings for the
month of March were actually quite
strong it was 1929 new listings
historically that that's a a pretty
good number and that was up 8.8 percent
year on year from March of 2022 and the
number was
1773. so that's good that's a positive
we've been needing more new listings
more new listings more properties
coming on the market that is one of the
the biggest problems with the market
right now is that inventory is so tight
and so that impacts everything it
just causes the entire Market to to
shrink and contract because most people
that are buying a house need to sell a
house as well
and then most people needing to buy a
house they need those new listings to be
on the market for them to do that and we
just haven't been seeing a lot of new
listings you can look historically
there's a lot of low numbers on
here a lot of negative numbers the past
several months but now we have two
straight months of three straight
months rather of year on year positive
new listing data February was only up
point seven percent year on year
but we hop back up to eight point
eight percent year on year that's the
highest year on year total that we've
had in new listings since September of
last year so that that is good that's an
indicator of the market getting a little
bit hotter as we enter into this busy
what's what's supposed to be the busy
spring season
obviously it's not as busy as it as
it has been the past few years but we
knew that was going to happen
if we look at pending sales I've told
you guys this is a gazillion time if
you're a long time listener Watcher of
the show pending sales is always a
month behind so if you remember last
time we went through these gjar
Market stats the pending sales for the
the month of February was in the 700s so
we typically have to adjust these
numbers well what we're typically
looking at the month before so we'll
look at February and then I'm going to
assume that the numbers for March are
probably about 400 pending sales behind
something like that I don't know why
that's the case but it consistently is
but pending sales for February since
since we need to go back and look at
that we had 1216 pending sales what does
that mean that that was down 10.9
percent year on Year from February of
2022 and it was at 13.65. so again this
is what we're seeing the market
contracted and the market has been
contracting but not at the rate that it
was to end 2022 if you're looking at
this on YouTube you can see that the
final three months of 2022 we had
negative increases or decreases of
above 24 and and we had 24.8 percent in
October minus 28.6 in November minus
25.7 percent pending sales in in
December so it's been much much less
dramatic to start this year January was
only down 6.9 February was only down
10.9 percent March is going to be
down as well I would anticipate that
this March number which is currently
showing 9.70 probably next month will be
redacted to being around 1400. that
will be down from March of 2022 which
was 15.75. but this is just what
we're seeing because of the interest
rate increases the mortgage rate
increases pending sales everything is
down the market has contracted we're not
going to have as many sales or as many
closings as we did the year before now
that being said it's not as bad as it
could be I mean if if you're looking
again at the at the actual Trend
the numbers that where we've been
hovering around hovering around the 1200
pending sales number historically
that's not that bad of a number in fact
just going back a few years ago that
would have Bend towards the top end of
the market
so even though the market has
contracted and feels like it's
contracted a lot in comparison to the
past few years historically not as bad
as you would think given the sharp
sharp mortgage rate increase that we've
seen the past
nine to ten months even going back a
little bit further than that
closed sales this is usually an accurate
point of an accurate data point on
here and this is very interesting closed
sales were again we're talking about the
market Contracting but for the month of
March closed sales were only down seven
point six percent
now remember closed sales are that's
that's when a a property actually sells
not when it goes under contract that's
what pending sales says pending sales is
when it goes under contract so obviously
closed sales reflects what's happened in
the previous few months so we just said
that February and well January was
only down 6.9 percent February was only
down 10.9 percent in terms of pending
sales so it makes sense that closed
sales was only down 7.6 but we're seeing
a trend here so
we had started to see going back from
really from July of last year and and
and June of last year as well and that's
that's kind of when most people that
really studied the housing market they
considered that we went into a housing
recession starting in June of last year
we saw mostly negatives year on year in
closed sales since then but it really
started to ramp up again towards the the
fourth quarter of last year when we
started going into double digit
negatives for closed sales this is the
first month since August of last year
March was the first month since August
of last year that we went into that
we weren't in double digit negatives for
closed sales so again this is an
indicator that we have a a stronger
Market than if you're if you're reading
headlines about you know how bad the
market is right now all these things it
is a stronger Market in Greenville than
you might realize and and this is
really astonishing to me that the closed
sales could be in single digit negatives
I really would have expected this to
have been throughout the entire year in
double digits as long as we have these
interest rates well above of six percent
so I find that interesting
that's just a testament to the
resiliency of the Greenville Market this
is also a very interesting stat the days
on Market until sale this is something
that we track very closely because this
directly correlates to how hot the
market is right this is the average
number of days between when a property
is listed and when an offer is accepted
in a given month I've been saying that I
would not be shocked if this number
soared into the 70s or 80s simply
because we have all of these listings
from months and months ago that just
price that that just were priced way too
high and so then eventually once they go
under contract once they sell then my
theory was that we would see a glut of a
bunch of properties that have been on
the market for three four five months
that finally go under contract because
they were just really overpriced they
finally got under contract below what
they were well below what they were
listed for and then we'll see this
number stored but that hasn't happened
yet we have seen it sore so I I was
right in that prediction up until
February when we saw it soar up to 57
days on Market which is a 90
year-on-year increase from February 2022
which was 30 days now March though we
saw a month on month basically things go
flat March only went up to 58 days so
one day longer day on Market versus
February that being said that is a
hundred percent increase with the
largest year-on-year increase that we've
seen
basically in any of these charts from
the 29 days on Market that we saw in
March of 2023
Still I'm a little bit surprised by that
number that is not as high as I would
expect it to be because we're seeing a
lot of properties right now that are
like I said that have been on the market
for a while that are finally going under
contract sellers finally coming to grips
with the fact that the market has
changed and and they're lowering their
prices and realizing okay I can't just
list my home for forty thousand dollars
over what it's worth and expect to get
it under contract pretty close to that
you have to really take seriously what
your home is worth and list it for that
number and not just get sloppy on okay
well I mean there's never been a home in
this neighborhood that sold about 500
000 but I'm just going to go ahead and
list for 575 Just for kicks I don't have
any data to support that people did that
for a while and and it didn't penalize
them that much when when we had this
this pandemic boom in the real estate
market but people that are doing that
now are getting heavily heavily
penalized and it's a it's a bad idea
don't do it but all of that to be said
that that was why I thought that this
number was soar but the fact that this
number has kind of flatlined at least
for now tells me something very
important because we are seeing all a
lot of those homes that have been on the
market for a while going under contract
and selling after having been on the
market for several months this number
tells me that we're seeing a lot of
homes negate that by virtue of them
going under contract right away we're
having a lot of and I'm running into
this right now multiple offer situations
they're back they're back it's not a
positive for for most people it's a
positive if you're looking to sell your
home
but we had this this seasonal Slumber
that happened in the fourth quarter of
last year that bled really really late
that kept going into the first quarter
of this year well guess what things have
been picking up quite a bit and I've
been telling you guys this for the past
several weeks things have been picking
up and that's reflected in this data if
this cut stays hovering around this
58 to 60 day marker that's gonna tell me
a lot that's going to tell me that this
Market has has really gone from being
really cooled off to starting to heat up
and if we see this number start to go
down that'll really be telling so this
is going to be one of the things I'll be
tracking most closely
last time we had this conversation
we had a real heart-to-heart
conversation about median sales price
right because I've been saying for
months now the number that I've been
looking at for the median sales price in
in order to kind of assess where we are
with the market I've been looking to see
if that would go below 285
000 you can go back months upon months
I've been saying this if it went below
285
000 that would tell us that we're seeing
prices decrease in a non-seasonal way
right we always see the median sales
price come down seasonally that's a
byproduct of a lot of things most of
which is that the more expensive homes
tend to not be selling during the
during the holiday season or whatnot
but
but it tends to pick up during the
spring so what I wanted to see was with
that number during the the slow season
of real estate Would It Go below 285 and
I have some data behind that it's a
little bit of an art and a science to it
but long story short last month we got
really close we we saw basically a zero
percent I guess a point zero one percent
increase year on year for February when
it went from 289 900 median sales
price in February of 2022 only up to 290
000 in February of this year
well 290 000 is really really close
to 285 000 right well guess what March
it jumped back up to 299 900
basically 300 000 and that is a
year-on-year increase of 1.7 so again
the resiliency of the Greenville Market
is showing here now a 1.7 year on
year increase is nothing in comparison
to what we had seen in in months
prior in May of 2022 it was a 20.5
increase year on year but we knew that
this was going to happen it had to
happen right because housing got way way
more expensive overnight when the FED
started increasing their mortgage rates
and so things have just become less
affordable as a as a result of this
so but that being said we're not
seeing a decrease right you're you're
seeing all these headlines I'm sure if
you're if you're looking at the click
bait that's out there of real estate
prices going down they are not going
down what has gone down is the increase
now is much less it's no longer a 20
you're on your increase now we're seeing
these increases in the single digits all
the way down to 1.7 percent but that's
an increase from February of this year
which was basically flat from February
of the year before so again continue to
monitor that but it does not appear that
we have have seen a seasonal a
greater than seasonal decrease in home
prices home prices do appear to still be
going up and based on my read of the
room I anticipate that that will
continue
but but we'll just have to see I'm
not gonna I'm not gonna go against what
the data says I'm a data guy and if the
data disagrees with me I'm gonna side
with the data every day
now I don't spend a whole lot of time
looking at average sales price because
the average sales price is really
heavily weighted by the by properties on
the high end of the spectrum that sell
or properties on the low end of the
spectrum that sell I don't find a ton of
value in the average sales price but I
do think it's worth noting that this was
the first month March of 2023 in a long
time that we did see a decrease in
average sale sales price of one point
four percent year on year so it went
from 351 and change in March of
2022 and down to 346 and change closer
to 347 year on year in March of of
this year I'm not putting a whole lot of
stock in that that just tells me that
the that there are fewer more
expensive homes that sold in March of
2023 in comparison to March of 2022.
that that is the most likely reason for
that happening
the percent of list price received
this is also a very very interesting
thing so
I wasn't this this is one of the
things that I I've been tracking that I
really wasn't sure what was going to
happen with this and I've not made any
major major bold predictions when it
comes to this
this is the percentage found when
dividing a property sales price by its
most recent list price and they then
take them the average for all properties
sold in the giving month given month not
accounting for sour concessions sour
concessions meaning
if a seller is paying for some of the
buyer's closing costs that type of thing
or if the seller is paying for a home
warranty for the buyer those are
those are kind of seller concessions it
does not account for that
and so obviously as as you guys
probably know if you've been listening
or watching this show for a while you
know that we were over a hundred percent
year on year percent of list price
received for quite some time we we
had a good stretch from 2021 through
2022 where that was the case case and
then around June of 2022 that started to
go down
the question was how far would it fall
the pre-pandemic norm was around 98 that
was what we were used to for quite quite
some time basically since 2017.
well it got down all the way down to
in in Feb in January and February down
to 97.8 percent but it's basically been
hovering for the for several months in
that 98 range well it it went up from
February 97.8 percent of list price
received up an entire half a percentage
point in March to 98.3 of list price
received now that is a big decrease from
March of 2022 which was 101.2 percent
an insane number but still now we are
seeing things
indicators that the market is still
pretty stable right now we're not seeing
a big drop off in demand we're seeing a
stabilization of demand we already had
the big drop off right the big drop off
happened and now things are stabilizing
and we're seeing an increase that is
what we would expect for this time of
year
so if we see that just kind of
stabilizing the 98 range that's that's a
good thing but right now that big
increase from February to March tells me
that the market has been heating up I
saw that personally in my own business
but that tells me on a meta level that
that's what's happening now this is
really really interesting I don't
know what exactly happened here but
apparently the greater Greenville
Association of Realtors completely
retooled their housing affordability
index now the thing that I have to
assume is that they basically
recalculated the median household
income for the Greenville area that's
the only way that I can that I can
figure that they did that because the
housing affordability index measures
housing affordability for the for the
region I'm just going to read this just
straight off of the text I always do
this for example an index of 120 means
the median household income is 120 of
what is necessary to qualify for for the
medium priced home under prevailing
interest rates a higher number means
greater affordability
well what's what's weird is that
we've been seeing this number like way
way below like in the 80s
but for some reason this month it
jumped back up to where it seems like
we're pretty close to 100 so 100 would
be if if we see this number at 100
that would mean that the that basically
the median price or the median
household income can afford the median
priced home
well right now according to this data
they retool the data and we had been for
the past three months over at or over a
hundred but then for March it did below
98 meaning that basically the
median household income cannot afford
the median priced home but it's pretty
close right it's pretty close to a
hundred so I don't know exactly
what to make of that I'll try to see if
I can get an answer for that for why
that num why that got so retooled
inventory of homes for sale moving
right along here inventory hop back up
from it had been in the low 3000s it
hopped back up to 3005 530 for the month
of March this is the number of
properties available for sale and active
status at the end of a given month
this number honestly seems high to me
I mean this is not what I'm seeing when
I'm doing searches I'm seeing around
2600
typically so I'm not exactly sure
where they got this number from but it's
a big increase from from the prior
month and a big increase from the prior
year now we are seeing people list
more homes right now
as I already said the new listings are
up so this is reflective of that but
this 3500 number is still well below the
pre-pandemic Norms of being around 4 000
homes for sale
and demand is still you know which
which we which we measure in some of
these other ways that we've been talking
about demand is still in a lot of ways
higher than it was pre-pandemic so um
at least in the Greenville area
so we'll continue to track that
but inventory we already we all know
this inventory is running really low and
as I've said on previous episodes of the
show a lot of the active inventory right
now is new construction and that
is a problem for a lot of people a
lot of people don't want new
construction they're they're not
impressed with with what's available
we just did an entire show on that so
so real inventory even as this
number picks up until the percentage of
new construction to resale to active
to existing home sales until that
kind of rebalances this inventory is
going to feel a lot lower than it is
even if we do see it go into that 4000
range that is not going to be comparable
to what what it was pre-pandemic because
pre-pandemic the percentage of new
construction inventory to existing
home sale inventory was just completely
different it was far fewer new
construction homes in in comparison
so so this number this inventory is
still very low month's supply of
inventory
this one is this number is pegged to
the pending sale so we can't really look
at March's numbers that's going to be
inaccurate but we can look at February's
number and look at the trend and the
trend is not positive again this is the
trend indicates that things started to
slow down in the fourth quarter of last
year where you can see that February
month supply went from so we had been
around like in the in the ones a month
supply which is insane it started to go
up as the year went on in 2022 finally
hit the mid twos in September where it
was at 2.5 October was 2.6 months
November 2.7 months and then since
November the number has started to go
back down December was 2.5 months of
inventory January 2.4 February 2.3
March is saying 2.9 but that's going to
be inaccurate because again the pending
sales
for the most recent month which
directly impact this month's Supply is
inaccurate it's probably going to I
don't know if it's going to keep this
trend of going down but I don't
anticipate it being substantially higher
than the 2.3 months of inventory that we
had in February so this is still
massively a seller's market again I've
been saying this over and over again
we're in a housing recession but it's
still a seller's market very weird
market and that's driven by low
inventory month supply of inventory it
it we probably need to see it go into
the fours perhaps the five is before it
starts to feel more like a buyer's
market we're nowhere near that so right
now very much still a seller's market
I'm not going to well I'll I'll
just look at a couple of quick facts
here the the price range with the
strongest sales was the 500 000 to 750
000 price range that had a
29.3 you're on your increase and the
bedroom count with the strongest sales
was two bedrooms or less that was a
negative increase
but still the the highest the the
closest thing we had to a strong sales
number for the month of March because
everything is decreasing right now so
two bedrooms right now are a lot more
popular than they were several years ago
because people can't afford the three
bedrooms anywhere right that third
bedroom is now a luxury for many people
people that you know a lot of times what
we saw was Couples
would would get a three bedroom home
just because they could and it's like
okay well I've got that extra bedroom if
I want to have a kid and then I've got a
spare bedroom for an office and or for
my guest well now what they're having to
do because things have become so much
less affordable is say forget it I'm
just gonna go with the two bedroom
property
and it's no surprise that the
property with the strong the property
type with the strongest sales is condos
those are primarily going to be those
two bedroom properties and so condos if
if you're looking for something
inexpensive condos are going to be your
cheapest option now condos tend to have
higher HOA fees things like that
and so not they aren't always as
affordable as they would appear at first
glance
but they are still more affordable
overall in comparison to traditional
detached single-family residences
so we're seeing a lot of different
things happen in the housing market
right now
but the the long story short of it is
that the market is still is as I said
before it's still a seller's market and
we're still seeing homes that are
priced correctly selling very quickly
we're still seeing sellers getting
upwards of 98 of what they have their
homes listed for
and and and it's a very difficult
Market to buy in that's just the reality
of the situations a challenging
challenging Market to purchase real
estate in because of how few homes there
are for sale right now
and I was listening to a a
national
person some of that that analyzes
that the housing market on a national
level and he was saying you know one
of the strange things Nationwide right
now a strange trend is that we
haven't seen the normal seasonal spring
bump in both inventory and demand and he
thinks it's coming so we might end up
seeing a late a late bloom and
perhaps a really contracted busy season
to real estate this year
we don't know nobody knows what's
gonna happen it's it's the wild west
right now
what we do know is that mortgage
rates are going to most likely to
continue to stay high now the FED is
predicting a recession or several people
with the FED are predicting a recession
by the end of this year no surprise
they've been trying to get us into a
recession for a while now
and so that's going to happen
we've already been in a housing market
recession for a while I don't think that
a macro recession as long as it's a mild
recession I don't think a a nationwide
recession is going to impact the housing
market all that much because I think
it's already we've already had the
impact we've already experienced the
pain and that's why we're seeing some of
these numbers return back to being
more seller friendly than than the trend
that they were going in
and so we'll just have to to keep
tracking that and see what happens
but right now not a lot of homes for
sale homes are are still selling prices
are still going up and and and the
market appears to have stabilized
despite all of the volatility that we'll
see that we're seeing in in other parts
of the economy so hopefully that was
helpful for you guys we will obviously
keep you on the front lines of all of
this data I appreciate you guys watching
and listening you can find me on YouTube
at Stan McCune 7303 that's my weird
username I don't know how I got that
maybe I'll change that at some point
but if you just search for for my name
on YouTube you'll find me please like
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I'm your guy I appreciate you guys
watching and listening we will talk
again next time