Hello everyone and Welcome to another
episode of Selling Greenville your
favorite real estate podcast here in
Greenville, South Carolina, I'm your host
as always Stan McCune realtor right here
in freezing cold and rainy as I'm
recording this Greenville South Carolina
hence if you're watching on YouTube
you'll see that I'm wearing a jacket and
I have been wearing this all day long
and if you if you watch multiple
episodes on YouTube you'll probably see
me wear this jacket for a few more
episodes at least one more because
I will be recording multiple episodes
today because sometimes I do that
sometimes I work ahead on the show
but nonetheless please housekeeping
as always please if you like this show
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if you need to reach out to me for any
of your real estate needs
so what are we doing today today's
episode we're going to look back at the
10 volt predictions that I made at the
end of last year going into the
beginning of this year and see how those
predictions are doing are they doing
okay are they not doing okay
what exactly is going on just in
general with the 10 bold predictions I
made I told you guys I I would track
these things and see how I did and this
probably won't be the only episode where
where we track these things because it
is very interesting for me at least and
I think it will be for you guys too to
go back and look at these predictions to
see
how things Trend because things
change throughout the year so we're just
going to start in the exact order that I
did them on that that show several
months ago and and I'll just be honest
with you whether I think I'm on track or
whether I'm not on track here so
prediction number one
I predicted that mortgage rates would
hit the low or mid fives at some point
this year that was that was my first
bold prediction these I don't believe I
put these in any order at the time that
that I did them I just think it was
kind of whatever order they they
appeared on my screen
this bold prediction is almost
certainly not going to happen
if it does happen I'm not going to
say it won't that that mortgage rates
won't hit the low or mid fives at some
point this year but if it does happen it
definitely wouldn't be until the end of
the year you probably heard rumors
that the FED is going to probably do one
more one more rate hike small rate
hike and then keep things kind of stable
for for the foreseeable future I
think that that's probably what's going
to happen
and as a result because mortgage rates
are are indirectly connected to or you
could argue directly connected to what
the FED does
they should pretty much stay where
they are I don't think that that what
the FED does in terms of increasing them
a little bit is going to have a huge
impact because I think that that
increase is already baked into the
current rates
but in terms of them going down into
the fives that is looking very very
unlikely to happen this year now next
year most people think it will happen
and here's what most people think is
going to happen most people think that
we're going to have some sort of a what
they're calling mild recession and I
think that they're using that
terminology so that people don't think
about 2008 the the the
Dynamics of the economy do not reflect
2008 in really any way and so what
we're looking at is something some sort
of recession that isn't quite like 2008
maybe it's not even like the like that
when the tech bubble bursts around
the year 2000 just something something
different something mild that's going to
cause a little bit of of unemployment to
go up
gonna cause hopefully inflation to go
down that's what the FED is aiming for
and then once that happens it then the
FED will start to loosen things up a
little bit and then we should probably
see rates going down now if the
recession is more than just mild let's
say that it does end up being a lot
worse because here's what happens
normally the the impact of what the FED
is doing isn't felt for a while
the the rate hikes that we've seen
you at least from what I understand you
don't typically see the direct impacts
of those rate hikes for a good six to
nine months in many instances so we may
find ourselves in six to nine months
having it a lot worse than we anticipate
and then the FED May and at that point
end up at that point dialing back rates
quite a bit so I think that this
prediction
is just off in terms of the time
frame I think that we're going to see
race go into the the low to mid fives at
some point next year
it's not looking super promising for
this year but you never know the FED is
pretty reactionary the the people that
we currently have controlling that so
we'll just have to see what happens my
bold prediction number two was that the
US will experience a mild recession hey
guess what the exact terminology that
people are using now and and I'm just
reading this straight off of I literally
copied and pasted from my my notes that
I took when I did this show before so
my bold prediction number two is that
the US will experience a mild recession
resulting in closings being down by 10
to 15 year on year as you can probably
expect based on what I just said this is
looking really good okay this is looking
like I pretty much hit the nail on
the head multiple fed members have said
in recent weeks that they do anticipate
a mild recession this year multiple
economists have said that multiple
news Publications have said that like
this is what everyone is anticipating
and as far as closings being down that
10 to 15 year-on-year number that's
looking pretty solid we started out the
year with a really huge decrease
January I believe is like a 30 year on
year increase but then March was
somewhere in the seven percent range so
we're starting to to stabilize as we
talked about recently
and so being having closings
down 10 to 15 year on year that feels
extremely reasonable right now
and having the mild recession that's
what everyone else is predicting at this
point I predicted it way before everyone
else is predicting it
so we'll continue to track that
but at the moment that's looking pretty
good oh I forgot to silence my phone
let's do that real quick wait I did
Silence it unbelievable
Gotta Love gotta love all this
technology
I'm gonna silence my computer as well
make sure we got all the things silenced
all right
there we go and I really don't edit this
show so you guys will
in case you're wondering why you're
experiencing all that I I barely have
the time to to do this show and also be
a realtor full-time my editing is
pretty minimal when it comes to the show
so you guys just have to experience that
alarm going off
all right my bold prediction number
three median home prices will stabilize
but will not go down
well guess what
if this is sounding a lot like things
that you've been hearing or things that
I've been saying recently it's because
it has because I again this is one where
I feel like at least with the current
data this could change that I pretty
much hit the nail on the head
just at least as I'm recording
this just this past week's episode this
is precisely what we discussed that the
the market looks like it is in fact
stabilizing and prices are still
going up but at a much slower Pace than
what we've had the past couple of years
so prices are not going down at least
not not the median prices we did see the
average price go down but we don't
really care too much about the average
price with regard to tracking things
the median price
had we have not yet seen it go down
this year and I think for when we look
back at the entire year it will not have
gone down it will have gone up slightly
but but with a lot more stabilization
not these crazy fluctuations and crazy
increases of 15 to 20 percent year on
year like we had kind of gotten used to
for a while there
oh but speaking of average prices my
bold prediction number four was that
average home prices at some point would
see a year-on-year decrease well guess
what oh sorry let me finish reading
this
I continued to this is just again
just what I wrote for last time higher
priced homes not so will not be selling
as wealthier people and those buying
second homes see their wealth go down
again as a result of of what's happening
on the the metal level in the economy
this is what I predicted
and I continue to say
that already we've seen average prices
go down month a month for four straight
months likely five once December numbers
on out are out and the year on year
decline is next well guess what this has
already happened this is the the first
bold prediction that I can say 100 I got
right is number four
we we just had this past month at
least that we have the data for which is
March 2023 the year on year average home
price
saw a decrease as a result of the higher
priced homes not selling to the extent
that they that they had been
so I nailed this one and and we'll
see again for the previous three how
those end up playing out and how the
rest of these play out number five the
national foreclosure rates I predicted
would stay at all time lows yeah they're
still at all time lows and and it has
creeped up ever so slightly but I mean
we're still talking about like way below
any foreclosure numbers that we've seen
in a really really long time
I'd be shocked I would like probably
the most shocking thing out of all of
this would be if I was wrong on that
point
because the national foreclosure numbers
there's just no indicator that would
indicate that foreclosure rates are
going to go up so I think that the I
feel very confident that that prediction
is going to be accurate by the end of
the year and that mortgage rates will
continue to to be low throughout the
rest of this year now next year who
knows we'll have to we'll have to keep
looking for next year but at the moment
this year it's looking like those
numbers are gonna still be extremely
low
number six Greenville will see its first
increase in housing affordability since
2011. interest rates will come down um
maybe maybe not as we just discussed
appreciation will slow
we are saying that pay raises will jump
maybe maybe not jury is still out so
that that was what I was thinking
is that we would see an increase in
housing affordability unlike anything
we've seen since 2011.
now
as we discussed during the market
stats episode the metric that we
typically use to measure this has
somehow the greater Greenville
Association changed it really
dramatically and and for some reason
the the housing affordability metric
is the numbers are different
and I'm not really sure what to make
of it but we it's still they readjusted
the historical numbers as well so they
didn't just adjust the most recent
numbers they also adjusted the
historicals
and so we can still look at what we
started out the year with and what we
ended with and the housing affordability
index to start the year was at 101 and
we discussed this before that but that
basically means that the median
household can't afford the median priced
home a hundred is is that exact number
100 means that the median
household income is capable of affording
the median priced home now we're
currently at 98. so at the moment we're
trending below that 101 number for this
prediction to be right we'd have to see
assuming they don't Tinker with us some
more we'd have to see
the number by the end of the year go
up to at least one or two
but I still think that there is a
very good chance that that happens
because all of these things could
still be in the cards you know I
don't think that mortgage rates are
going to be going up dramatically I
think there's a possibility that they go
down a little bit although like I said I
don't think that going down into the
fives is likely to happen this year but
as those mortgage rates go down that
makes things more affordable
and as the
year-on-year median price increases
decrease which they've they've already
they already have it's not a decrease in
the median price but the increase has
decreased it's not increasing at quite
the speed that it was in the past
and then as people as as incomes
start to rate start to increase in the
area that should make things a little
bit more affordable so the jury is still
out on this one
I'm 50 50. I think it's a coin flip
on whether I am accurate on this one or
not so we will see at the end of this
year we'll we'll keep tracking that
number seven Greenville realtor turnover
will exceed 50 percent
I said this when I recorded
this bold predictions episode before and
I'm gonna have to say it again I don't
really know how to measure this but I
feel very confident in this maybe later
this year I'll try to find a way to
actually track this
but yeah Realtors are dropping like
flies
really across the country but
specifically in Greenville we're seeing
this a lot those that pop into the
market the past couple of years to kind
of rode the wave of easy closings
closings going down 10 to 15 percent
in a year and being in a housing
recession that's very difficult to
stomach because those first two years
are usually pretty rough anyway so for
those that just kind of had some easy
closings the first two years and thought
okay I'll just be able to increase my
closings you know 20 every year all of a
sudden now the entire Market has shrunk
and that's just that's a difficult thing
for realtors it's difficult for me I'm
not going to pretend like like I'm
above the foray yeah my closings are
down this year just like everyone else's
now thankfully I do other things I
flip houses and things like that
and and in the end I'm going to be fine
I've been preparing for this for a
long time when when we had the the
time of of realtor plenty between 2020
and 2022 I didn't just go spend all that
money and and buy you know all sorts of
fancy boats and cars and and whatnot I
made sure that I was prepared for the
lean season because I knew the lean
season was coming well the lean season
is here
but not everyone did all that
preparation for it
and I'm not trying to look down on
anyone that's just not everyone was able
to
so I'm grateful that I was able to
I'm gonna be fine nobody needs to worry
about me
but
if you're looking for a realtor I would
appreciate if you could give me that
business because that will help me um in
the long run here
number eight bold prediction number
eight total inventory will stay below
pre-pandemic levels month supply May
temporarily go above pre-pandemic levels
yeah I don't I'm I'm really not sure
about that but we're to continue to this
quote from my previous episode we're
about to enter an extended period of
time where people who purchase their
homes two plus years ago and might be
candidates to sell or buy something
bigger or nicer are going to choose
instead to enjoy their low interest
rates on their cheap homes this will
keep inventory down probably for several
years but I still see month's supply of
inventory which factors in not just the
supply but also the demand going up
before it comes back down due to demand
slowing faster than Supply at least for
the next few months
well total inventory it's not super it's
actually super far behind pre-pandemic
levels
but it is still behind and I don't
see anything indicating that
at the moment that inventory is going
to go up months of inventory is is
honestly lower than I would have
expected for this time of year because
demand has been strong demand in
March was was quite good we had in
terms of when you just look at closings
so our demand has has stabilized
again that's the word that I'm choosing
to use here because it's not like we're
seeing the market going crazy again what
we're seeing is is people realizing you
know buyers in particular are realizing
okay rates aren't going down anytime
soon I can't delay my move any longer I
think buyers for a while we're delaying
their move thinking okay maybe there's a
recession coming maybe rates will go
down and then they realize okay rates
aren't to go down there might be a
recession but it's going to be mild it's
going to be towards the end of this year
and so now people are just kind of
returning back to their more normal
behaviors with the one exception being
sellers that would that purchase homes
the past two to three years they're
having a hard time stomaching listing
their home for sale and losing that
cushy mortgage rate that they've got
and so I feel pretty good that the total
inventory will in fact stay below
pre-pandemic levels and I feel even
better that the month's Supply will stay
below pre-pandemic levels so we'll we'll
continue to track that but at the moment
looking pretty good on that front bolt
prediction number nine days on Market
until sale will reach the highest point
since 2016. for this to happen we would
need to see days on Market come around
70. and you know that was looking pretty
good until last month in the stats we
just tracked when the days on Market
ticked up only from 57 days of the
market in Feb in February to 58 in March
so we had seen the curve was just going
way up and then from February to March
it just kind of went do just like
basically flatlined because going
from 57 to 58 like that's that's
basically that's basically not an
increase I mean it is an increase but
it's nothing noteworthy
so I don't feel super good about this at
the moment actually I've been saying
I was really thinking that we would
see days on month hit it's some of
these higher numbers because my thinking
was that we so we had the second half
of last year we had sellers that just
had very unreasonable expectations for
what the market was doing they they had
gotten used to multiple years of of
houses appreciating by 15 to 20 percent
and so people were just used to listing
their home for five to ten percent above
what it was worth and eventually within
you know a couple of months they
would get that price because the market
had caught up to what they had listed it
for
and then everyone that listed their home
for for less than five percent above
what it was worth was basically getting
it under contract right away well then
that was sorry that was before the
interest rate increases that happened
then we had mortgage rates go up and all
these people that were listing their
homes they continued to to do the same
thing of listing their homes five to ten
percent above what they were worth but
then you had all this demand drop out
due to mortgage rates doing what they
did going going really really high
overnight in a way that they really had
not happened at least not in a very
very long time
and so what I thought was going to
happen is that all those homes that had
been sitting on the market since like
the summer
that we would start to see them
selling and that you know we would be in
an environment where there are homes
that had been on the market for 150 160
170 days pushing up that that finally
sold that then pushed up this days on
Market until sale number
the thing is because inventory is
still so low
the the number of homes that have been
on the market for a really long time is
is very minimal so either those people
took their homes off the market they
decided they're not going to sell or
they lowered the price enough in order
to sell them and and and so here we
are where now I'm thinking that we're
not gonna probably end up seeing
we might come close to 70 days on Market
but I don't think that we're we're going
to to hit that
I was looking at
how many homes have been on market
for three months or greater and it's
actually as of as of this recording less
than 700 homes that have been on on the
market for three months or greater 700
homes like even if those do you know
continue to linger on the market and
then eventually sell and kind of drive
this number up that's not enough homes
to make a difference I mean 700 homes in
in the entire Upstate of South Carolina
that's nothing that's that's a nothing
Burger to use Twitter and social
media terminology
so I don't think that this
prediction is going to hit I think we're
going to stay below 70 days on Market
throughout the remainder of this year
but we'll see again I I could be
wrong but just based on the current data
this is not looking like like it's
gonna be accurate all right bullet
prediction number 10 I said cheap fixer
uppers will appear again as people reset
their expectations remember
from 20 really 20 21 and 2022 was
this unprecedented time when
fixer-uppers were coming on the market
for only a little bit below what a
non-fixer upper was listed for and
because everyone was getting outbid on
everything else those Fixer-Upper homes
were selling for just a tad bit they
were selling for what they were listing
for like it didn't matter didn't matter
that they needed tons of work people
were still there were still multiple
offers because there was so much demand
so little Supply and people were just
like you know what I just gotta buy the
buy this house with the windows painted
shut and the shag carpet that I got to
replace I'm just gonna have to bite the
bullet and just and just make repairs
over the years make updates over the
years
well
what I predicted and and what has
happened
anecdotally I don't have
firm date on this I would be it would
be really hard to to bring this data
together but I have seen the Fixer-Upper
homes have been hit the hardest those
are the homes that you know people are
are willing to hold out a little bit for
a home that's not a fixer-upper now
that has started to change the past
month or so
because of inventory being so so low
going into the busy season for Real
Estate
and so I actually am starting to
see some of these fixer-uppers
selling more quickly and and looking
like what the market was back you
know a year or two ago so um so that's a
little bit disheartening
but that being said
I'm not going to say that I have been
or will be wrong on this because I'm
still seeing more cheap fixer-uppers
coming on the market right now and the
past three to four months than I have
seen for several years so we are
seeing those cheap fixer-uppers
appearing on the market and when I say
cheap I mean you know properties that
are below a hundred thousand dollars
that's that's what's cheap in in the
Greenville market now and that that's
that was cheap you know even several
years ago
those basically disappeared for for a
couple of years but we are starting to
see them come back now is it a lot are a
lot of them coming back no it's it's not
not a lot it's not like there's a glut
of these entering the market I'm talking
about maybe one to two per per month
that are like actually interesting but
doing that as opposed to you know
maybe five per year which which was what
we have been seeing for the past several
years that's that's a a big increase
and so we are seeing cheap
fixer-uppers appearing again as people
do reset their expectations and get a
little bit more realistic as some of
these house flippers decide that they
have a project that they don't want to
mess with we're seeing a lot of a lot of
more homes than in the past although
it's still a low number because all of
the inventory numbers are low right
there's not going to be a lot of cheap
fixer-uppers when there's not a lot of
homes in General on the market right but
in contrast to the low inventory there
is a higher amount of inventory for
these cheaper Fixer-Upper homes than
what we've been seeing in quite some
time so I feel like
I feel like thus far that prediction
has come true maybe not to the extent
that I thought it has but so far I feel
like that's been accurate
and I think it will continue to be
throughout the rest of this year so
so a mix I think most of these
I'm on track a couple of these I've
already hit and a couple of these are
definitely not on track and unlikely to
hit
but we'll keep tracking these and
we'll see I might do this again Midway
through the year maybe towards the end
of the year or maybe at the end of the
year I'm not sure we'll just have to see
if the market if what's happening in the
market is interesting enough for me to
feel like an episode to continue to
track my bold predictions is warranted
but here we are through greater
than a quarter of the year and I feel
like and and almost through a third of
the Year actually and and so we have
enough data to look at this and I I
think I think it's interesting the way
things have played out and how some
things have been a little bit surprising
but some things have been exactly as as
I expected and exactly as probably you
guys the listeners or The Watcher
on YouTube have been expecting if
you've been watching and listening to
this show frequently
but that's it for today's episode I
appreciate you guys listening
reminder as always my contact
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guys watching and all of you guys
listening we will talk again next time