Hello everyone and Welcome to another

episode of Selling Greenville your

favorite real estate podcast here in

Greenville, South Carolina, I'm your host

Stan McCune realtor right here in the

Greenville area of South Carolina and

you can find all of my contact

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today I want to do a beginning of Summer

update because here we are the end of

May entering into June I think you know

for most people Memorial Day is kind of

The Unofficial start to the summer it is

that way for me now Memorial Day weekend

in Greenville this year was like really

weird

I was actually out of town for a

little bit I came back and it was like

raining and like in the 50s and I don't

ever ever remember it being like that

in the end of May normally we are like

full-blown summer mode here in

Greenville at that time of year

but nonetheless it's been seasonably

mild sorry unseasonably mild and

and that is just kind of interesting

just how that's happened I don't know

why it's happened we've had all sorts of

rain I had hail I was out of town I I

had my glass break sensor go off with

my alarm system because it thought

someone was bringing breaking in because

I was getting hail on my house I haven't

yet had a chance to check to see if I

have hail damage some of you might know

I used to be an insurance adjuster so

I'm actually qualified to to check my

own roof for hail damage

I'm pretty good at it

but nonetheless I haven't had a

chance to do that because I'm still

getting caught up

I spent two weeks out in California

and then sadly my wife's uncle passed

away right at the end of our trip so

then we had to make another trip to my

wife's family

and so I was gone for almost two and

a half weeks

and it was crazy but we had a

really great trip spent some time

seeing some national parks out in

California it's the most time by far

that I've spent in California and my

first time seeing any of those national

parks and let me just say so we

drove all the way from Vegas eventually

ending up in San Francisco

and I think I finally appreciate why

California seems to be the most

difficult state to poach people away

from to come to Greenville and I think I

finally know why like we get a lot of

people from the Northeast who come to

Greenville we get a lot of people from

Chicago area that comes to Greenville

we get a lot of people from

even from Florida people that are

getting outpriced that are are moving to

Greenville just anecdotally just my

experience

in terms of of clients that I've had

in Texas as well that's another one

but but not very many from

California and having spent you know a

couple of weeks out there I can

understand I mean that state is just

beautiful I know it's like the politics

out there I'm not even gonna say what

I hear from people but the political

situation out there

and the price of things is just

outrageous but I can understand why

people have a hard time leaving when

it's just there's just Beauty everywhere

obviously the the big cities you know

every everyone wanted everyone has

asked me what the homeless situation in

San Francisco is like and it was like

it's a big city like there's homeless

people

I've I spent a lot of time you

know 18 years of my life pretty close to

New York City and there's a lot of

homeless people in New York City as well

like it's really no different in my

opinion than San Fran granted I didn't

go to the areas where there are fentanyl

issues going on but you just know not

to go to those areas but nonetheless

I'm really getting off topic here I can

understand why people love California it

is a beautiful state if you avoid some

of those rougher areas and and most

of the state is not the rougher areas

most of the state is just beautiful

rolling Golden Hills

just absolutely incredible

what blew my mind was a small little

town Three Rivers California which

nobody's ever heard of but it's right

near Sequoia National Park which sadly

was closed but that's okay we we still

oh I don't know what my dog is freaking

out about if you hear if you hear her

barking

but we still got to

and enjoy that area and just the the

city of Three Rivers just this little

mountain town it was just gorgeous like

they had this Lake that went in

between the mountains and it was just

you know just absolutely incredible

I got a picture of it I think I

posted it on my Instagram because I was

just so blown away from it so just

amazed by it it's just not what I was

expecting

so you can look me up on Instagram I

think I'm going to be posting some more

photos from that trip I just haven't had

time to just been too busy but at

Stan McCune on Instagram if you want to

follow me on there

I'm also at Stan McCune on Facebook

I'm also the the only platform I'm

not at Stan McCune is

is YouTube

but if you search my name or you search

so in Greenville you can find this show

on there all right so that's a little

recap of what I've been doing if you

were interested

but I want to talk about just a

little personal update on what the real

estate market is doing the beginning of

the summer we didn't do our normal

Market stats look this month and

that's because I had to record all of

the episodes for the month of May

besides this one prior to going on this

trip so I did I cranked out four

episodes in the span of two days

so that you guys wouldn't miss anything

while I was traveling

so we're just going to skip the

market stats for what would have been

the month of April and then a few weeks

we'll get maze statistics but I can

still share with you kind of what I'm

seeing boots on the ground here in in

the Greenville area and just kind of

what the what the mood is in general

what I'm sensing

and here is what I'm sensing now granted

this is kind of coinciding a bit with

Memorial Day weekend but

from things that I've read and other

people I've talked to I don't think that

it's strictly a holiday related event

we are seeing things slowing down quite

a bit and

that's no surprise because mortgage

rates have crested above seven percent

for the third or depending on how you

track it fourth time the past year and

and this is the direct result of what

I'm going to call the debt ceiling

crisis we're we're still if you're

listening to this we may have already

resolved this we may have already

pushed up the debt ceiling I'm recording

this prior to the vote having taken

place on whether the debt ceiling is

going to get extended or whatever the

proper terminology is for that

but as a result of that

that indirectly caused mortgage rates

to Crest above seven percent I've even

had some people that have even backed

away from pursuing real estate until the

whole debt ceiling thing gets

resolved so multiple things have kind

of come together here the past few weeks

that have really caused a bit of a

Slowdown in terms of buyer activity

and I think we're we're seeing that

across the board like I said on a

national level I have seen people

saying the exact same thing and so the

question now is is this seven percent

above seven percent rate scenario that

we're in right now

with mortgage rates is that here to stay

or is it going to once this whole debt

ceiling situation gets gets resolved

and it looks like it will get resolved

well at that point we see it return back

to below sick but sorry below seven

percent maybe in the high sixes or maybe

mid mid sixes it seems like people

really just got squeamish once it once

it got above seven percent and decided

you know what we're just going to wait

this out and just see what happens some

people really don't think that we're

going to see it Go below seven percent

that we might actually be in a above

seven percent rate world for the next

several weeks maybe the next several

months

I'm I'm a little bit non-committal but I

tend to think it will dip at least a

little bit below seven percent

and then we could very well end up

seeing the Federal Reserve though

increase rates again at least their

federal funds rate

next month or or depending on when

you're listening to us in the month of

June a lot of people thought that they

would pause

I even heard some people say that

they thought that they would lower rates

that I can almost assure you is not

going to happen the best case scenario

is that they pause rate hikes

at least from from the standpoint of

mortgage rates that's the best case

scenario I guess you could argue whether

that's the best case scenario for the

economy

but right now there's a lot of

sentiment a lot of people thinking that

the FED is going to increase rates yet

again in the month of June maybe a

quarter percent rate hike you know go

up 25 basis points

and if that happens it's hard to know

whether that would impact mortgage rates

because a lot of these things have kind

of already been priced in and mortgage

rates are already higher than you would

expect them to be based on what the what

the FED has done

and so

long story short

we don't know but I tend to think that

mortgage rates will go back below seven

percent and I tend to think that even if

the FED does go you know does increase

their rate by 25 basis points I tend

to think that that won't have a dramatic

impact on mortgage rates but if they

keep hiking let's say we get a June hike

and then we get a July hike okay now we

we might start to see that start to

have an impact on mortgage rates almost

certainly we would

but I do think for sure that that we can

be confident that mortgage rates are not

coming down anytime soon

I'm less and less inclined to

believe that we're going to see them go

below six percent before the end of this

year

I'm starting to think that we

should just kind of expect them to be

best case scenario in the mid sixes

by the end of this year and then in 2024

we'll see what happens at that point

most likely we'll see things fall

down at that point but for right now

we are seeing an extended period of time

with rates in the sixes and potentially

the sevens and so the market is just

going to have to account for that and

there's just going to be fewer fewer

buyers out there because more people are

going to get priced out

and you know I will say this I think

this is the first time that I really

think that we could see a slight drop in

prices we might might start to see some

slight year-on-year drops and prices we

didn't see that for the month of April I

will bring this up I'm not going to go

through the market stats line by line

like I normally do but the median sales

price for the month of April was 302

500 which is 1.5 above April 2022 which

was at 298 000. so we did see both a

month on month and a year on year median

sales price increase in the greater

Greenville area per the the greater

Greenville Association of Realtors for

the month of April

but it would not Shock me if we saw a

decrease in May and or June we'll have

to see when the May Stats come out

but it'll be very interesting to see and

I'll remind you guys that

that doesn't I you don't the there's

no reason to there's really no reason to

panic for any of these things I mean I

guess if you're a seller and you only

have one property that that you're

planning to sell soon like your own

primary residence and you don't have

investment real estate you might be

freaking out a little bit but listen

We're not gonna see

at least there's no data to indicate

anytime soon that we're gonna see like

prices drop by 10 15 20 if they drop

it'll be you know less than five percent

probably one percent two percent year on

year something like that that's the kind

of thing that we could see if we see

rates stay in this seven percent range I

think it could damper buyer activity to

the point that we see a little bit of a

price decrease

but if you look historically at the

at the charts in Greenville

it is not uncommon in a normal year for

there to be a month where the

year-on-year median sales price is lower

than it was it is negative I should

say so where you have a negative

year-on-year median price point

growth and and that doesn't mean that

the line isn't trending up that doesn't

mean that for the entire year that it's

normal for prices to go down but it's

not uncommon for it to be kind of a

jagged line where the median price

point has some months where it's below

the year before but most months above

what it was the year before with the net

of the entire year being an

appreciating Market

so it's actually been more of the

anomaly that we haven't had any months

like that in recent years that we've had

appreciation every single month or at

least median price point growth every

single month going on oh I don't know

I'd have to go back and look at the at

the stats but it's been going on for a

while now

that is not the norm so you

should just be prepared for that

you will hear National media talking

about prices going down because there's

a lot of data on the national level

about that happening

and what's happening on the national

level is is a lot different than

what's happening on the local level here

in Greenville and Greenville much more

stable Market our highs aren't as high

as things are on the national level and

our lows aren't as low as what things

are like on the national level so

just be prepared for that you're

you're going to see these headlines but

they don't necessarily pertain to

Greenville but I'm saying that we may

have a few months here where we see some

some price growth not just slowing

down which it already has but actually

going into the negatives so we will

just have to have to track that now at

some point we're going to reach these

months where we saw the extreme slowdown

that happened last year when rates

started going way up so that happened in

the summer of last year so when that

happens some of these year-on-year

numbers are going to start to look

better and that's merely because

we're we're going to be comparing this

year to the the slow part of last year

so that's something to keep in mind as

well we're still comparing this year to

when the market was still very very

crazy in 2022 eventually you know once

we got into the late summer of 2022 the

market had really really slowed down we

were in a housing market recession

already by that point of last year

and so once we start comparing those

numbers things will start to balance

out a little bit

but up to this point we are we

have still seen every month that the

data has come out we have seen price

growth it's just been a lot less extreme

you know rather than 20 seeing one and a

half percent year on year something like

that and that's good that's what that's

what our Market in a lot of ways needs

now it's not good for everyone again if

you're a seller and not a buyer in this

market then yeah that's that's not

great you would rather have 20

year-on-year appreciation right

but for the most part the market

needs needed it to slow down

the the problem is that we still

inventory has ticked up a bit and I do

want to discuss that

let me pull up the market stats here

again where did I put them here we go

and you're not seeing if you're on

YouTube I'm not going to screen share

this time

just because I'm not really looking

you know super closely at these but

new listings were down almost 10 year on

year

and the let's see here

I said I wasn't gonna go go through all

these but I look at this data and I just

want to talk about it the percent of

list price received jumped up to 98.7

that was a little surprising I think we

might see that drop a little bit but

the inventory for of homes was at its

highest point that it's been since

2020. so the total inventory was at 3

601 which was 125 percent increase year

on year so that that's a big number but

now that's still below the pre-pandemic

Norms

but I have seen recently that

inventory levels are starting to to

increase just a little bit here in in

in our Market

and so again this is all kind of

confirming what I'm sensing which is

that buyer activity has slowed down a

bit and I really think that the seven

percent rate I think that that just

caused a lot of people to say you know

what I'm putting on the brakes I'm

suspending my my activity for now I'm

just gonna kind of wait this out and see

exactly what happens

and you know at some point what the

FED is doing is going to cause more

people to lose their jobs a lot of

people think that the FED is trying to

orchestrate a job loss recession I am in

that camp that that's what I believe the

FED is trying to do we have other

recession markers but one of them that

has not been a recession marker up to

this point has been the number of

jobless claims and we just had a bunch

of data the reason why people think that

that the FED might hike again in the

month of June

is that we just had a bunch of data that

came out that showed that the that

inflation and the economy and and jobs

and wage growth all of these things are

still going at a at a faster and more

hotter that's a terminology that they

like to use going at a hotter Pace we're

seeing we're still seeing not enough

jobless claims we're still seeing wage

growth going higher than we would

expect it to

and normally you know 99 of the time

people would be really happy about that

oh okay

the economy's strong not very many

people are claiming that they're jobless

wages are going up people are

hiring you know all of these things

would usually be positive but we're in

this Bizarro world right now where

because inflation is still running hot

the FED has targeted the job jobless

claims number and and apparently what

what someone that I trust

um has said that they believe I believe

it's that that the FED wants to to

have I believe the jobless claims

number to be 323 000.

I believe I'd have to go back and

look at that

but anyway we're nowhere near that so

there's a lot of questions on whether

the FED feels like they've done enough

and they just need to kind of wait it

out and just kind of let what they've

done up to this point run its course

and take effect

because the effect tends to lag behind

what they do

but a lot of people are just like you

know what based on what the FED has been

saying and based on all these numbers

that have just come out they're going to

keep being aggressive and just going to

keep raising rates and my

understanding is that the situation in

Europe and and parts of Asia is even

kind of more extreme that actually it's

it's better in the U.S from the

standpoint of inflation some of these

other things than it isn't in some of

these other countries so we we live in

in very strange times

but the the long story short of it is

things are slowing down now for me

personally

I still feel very busy

but I always feel very busy part

of this is you know I just got back from

vacation so I've just got so much you

know that I need to be doing and even

though I I really prepared for it and I

set up all my clients with with people

that potentially that that could

have assist them if need be or if I had

someone reach out to me I had processes

in place whereby I could make sure that

that they could be helped in my absence

but I still as with anyone I still have

a backlog of things to do coming back

from vacation but I'm just looking ahead

at even you know these next few months

listings I've got coming up buyer

clients I know that are going to be

coming on the market and I'm just like

you know what for me personally I'm

going to continue to stay busy and

I'm grateful for that

but I need to make sure that that stays

true and so that's where you guys come

into play and so I appreciate any

referrals that I get from you guys it

really means the world to me and a lot

of you guys have have been great

Advocates for me for the show and so

I really appreciate that I'm gonna wrap

the show up now

I don't I I

I just said about how I'm busy and yeah

I I need to I need to get to some

other things

but I hope you guys enjoyed the show

as I said please any of your real estate

needs or your friends or your family

members real estate needs please keep me

in mind my contact information is in the

show notes please reach out to me for

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next time