Hello everyone and welcome to another

episode of Selling Greenville your

favorite real estate podcast here in

Greenville South Carolina I'm your host

as always Stan McCune realtor right here

in Greenville, South Carolina, you can

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So today we're going to talk about the

May Market stats that were released Just

A Week Ago by the Greater Greenville

Association of Realtors a lot of very

interesting pieces of data that that

came through in those Market stats so

I'm excited to share this

but before we even get into that I do

want to discuss briefly that we had a

very important fed meeting the

Federal Reserve not really a meeting but

where they came out to kind of say

what they were planning to do as far

as their rates go which then has an

impact on mortgage rates and I was very

very curious what they were going to

do

the market basically thought that

they were going to pause mortgage rates

mortgage rate hikes or not mortgage

rates hikes just rate hikes in general

and that's exactly what they

did they decided not to increase the

federal funds rate for the month of

June

but they left the door very very

wide open for rate hikes in the future

so the market is basically expecting for

them to increase rates in the

month of July which is very interesting

a lot of questions over why they are

doing that and there's even more

questions of whether that would even

impact mortgage rates because the

spread between the 10-year

Treasury and the 30-year mortgage is

really really high right now I'm not

going to get into all the weeds on that

but long story short it might not even

even if the Even If the Fed increases

their rates that might not have a direct

impact on mortgage rates but when the

FED interesting only when the FED

announced made that announcement

rates did go up a tick basically from

the high sixes right up to seven percent

so the market was not super happy the

mortgage Market was not super happy

about the Federal Reserve saying

we're pausing but then probably hiking

in future months

now people are really confused about

why the FED would do this like if you're

gonna hike and just hike now

I think it makes sense

because what the FED said that they

wanted to do and I agree with this was

to see what's the impact on what they've

done so far

because the the extreme right hikes

that they've done the past year you

don't immediately see the impact of that

right so we can we can see inflation

going down but there is a bit of a lag

between you know the fed using this

blunt force type of tool that they have

when it comes to rates it takes

months for that to really start to

reflect in the data

so I think it's the right decision for

the FED to wait and see you know what

exactly is going to happen

but let's say that they said let's

say they did that

you know they paused for the month of

June and then they said we don't

anticipate any rate hikes in the future

I think that that would cause the

market to go Bonkers

I think that that the stock market

would go nuts if that happened

and so I think what the Fed was doing

I'm not entirely convinced I'm not

saying that they were being completely

dishonest and that there's no way

they're going to increase rates in July

and perhaps August

I would say that there is a very very

good chance that they do but I also

think that there's a very very good

chance that they look at the data and

say you know what we don't need to do

it but that they there was just no way

that they could tell the market that

right and so it just became a very

confusing mixed message type of

statement from the fed that's like well

we're pausing but we're gonna keep

increasing rates

I think that that really the reason

for this they they want to pause and

review everything

but they felt like they couldn't say

there's a chance that we don't raise

rates anymore because that would cause

the market to go Bonkers and cause

inflation to be another concern they

also like the fact

they've not said this directly but

you reading the tea leaves they like the

fact that mortgage rates are so high

they like that that's impacting you

know the housing market cooling off the

housing market cooling off the rental

market they're very happy about that so

they don't want to see that spread come

down they don't want to see mortgage

rates come down so they're incentivized

to put statements out there that's going

to cool the market

so I just wanted to address that

mortgage rates are still high let me see

I'm recording this on June 19th

Monday June 19th the 30-year fixed rate

right now

is coming in well this is actually

lagging data but the last time it was

pulled it was 6.95 again that's an

average

but still that's a

high number that's right up there you

know we've been seeing it more in the in

the mid mid to high sixes but that's

right up there at seven percent and and

the real estate market does not like it

to be in that seven percent range I can

tell you that from experience and

we're going to see that reflected in

some of the data that we're that

we're going to be looking at so I'm

going to go ahead and pull that up right

now

and so again if you're looking on

YouTube you can see the data that I'm

talking about and there's some very

very interesting stuff in here

courtesy of the greater Greenville

Association of Realtors really grateful

to them for producing this great data

every month

monthly data is limited in a time

where the market shifts so quickly but

it's helpful from the standpoint of

being able to you know me as a realtor I

have things that I experience

anecdotally

and I'm always a little bit nervous

when I share that it's like well my

experience could be dramatically

different than someone else's experience

and could be just different than the

market because I have quirks in my

business right I might have an influx of

seller clients just because it just

happened that way right or I might have

you know a bunch of buyer clients

looking at a certain price point that's

not really reflective of the rest of the

market so it's helpful to see this

monthly data to reinforce whether what

I'm experiencing is accurate or not not

so we're just going to start right at

the top with new listings and May

2023 we saw a minus we basically saw

a decrease of new listings 5.4 percent

year on year so it went down from

1984. May of 2022 and it went down

to

1877 May of this year we've seen some

some fluctuations we've seen some months

where listings have been up year on year

some months where they've been down year

on year but this is now the second

consecutive month where we're seeing

decreases year on year

so from the standpoint of housing

Supply that's not great but as we're

going to see it actually we're still

seeing Supply increasing so that's

actually what we need in a lot of ways

we do need Supply to increase

but that's that obviously benefits

buyers a lot more than a benefit sellers

pending sales

I'll remind you guys if you've not

listened to this before when we go

through these stats the pending sales

for the most recent month which in in

the June stats is the month of May

it's always wrong it's always off by

quite a bit

and so for instance April of so when

we went over the market stats well

last month we didn't go over them but I

look back at the report from last month

where it had April's pending sales

and April was in the 900s well you can

see

in these Market stats that that April

has been updated that now it's 1 412

were the pending sales so we're going to

look at that versus looking at May at

the moment so 1 412 pending sales the

month of April that was down 8.2 percent

year on Year from April 2022 and so

we've had a lot of I don't even know I

don't know what the exact number is but

a lot of consecutive months where we've

seen pending sales down down year on

year and so this is what this is what's

happened in the market we we're in a

housing recession I've talked to you

guys about this before this is what a

housing recession looks like is when

there's way way fewer sales but we've

recovered from the fourth quarter of

last year when those pending sales were

down around 25 year on year now we're

seeing these prints that are less than

10 percent but eight point down eight

point two percent in April that's the

that's the worst number that we've seen

since December of last year so that's a

that's an interesting number and listen

I felt that in the month of May okay we

saw the the busy season come to an

abrupt halt

and this particularly was felt when

the Memorial Day holiday came around

that's a normal seasonal time of

slowdown for the market but it coincided

with rates you know going right back up

to seven percent

and so that really put a damper on

May and then that will be then reflected

in the in the June number so I think

we're going to have some another low

month coming up again the main numbers

aren't accurate but think about it this

way April was in the 900s last month

when they posted the April stats

and that got redacted or changed to

1412 and so may right now what the

pending sales number that they have is

is 873. so I think when they update that

it's going to be in the 1300s well that

in comparison to a sorry to May of

last year it was 1488 almost 1500 so

that's going to be a very very big

decrease probably on par with the 8.2

percent maybe even a little bit more

of a decrease that we experienced in

April so these sales numbers are not for

me as a realtor not encouraging not

encouraging numbers if you're looking to

sell not not particularly encouraging

numbers the the market so so the busy

season the way we think about the real

estate busy season is it's really

normally three very busy months March

April May and then three pre decently

busy months of June July August

well what we're seeing is really it it

seems like it was more of a March and

April busy season and and now we're

entering this not quite as busy summer

season earlier than we normally do

that's reflected in some of the

closed sales data

now may we had for the first time

in a while an increased year in year in

closed sales so this is very interesting

so what I think happened here is I think

we had a bit of the pending sales from

March that were taking longer and I'm

seeing this kind of across the board

right during the crazy part of 2020 2021

and even some of 2022

there was a shorter period of time from

when a home got under contract until the

closing actually happened and the reason

for that was very simple people had to

make their offers as attractive as

possible one thing sellers like one

thing that's attractive when you're

writing an offer is to make that as

short of a period of time as possible

well what happens when the market slows

down people want to have more time

buyers want to have more time they don't

want to feel rushed and so so I think

what we had is in February March the the

pending sales were just longer longer

pending sales periods

until the closing and so we had

you know

if you look back at February February

was down 11.4 percent in closed sales

year on year but that's a lot better

than the months prior to that several of

the months prior to that

March then was only down 7.4 percent

year on year April then was down 17 year

on year but then may we finally rounded

the corner and had an a year-on-year

increase

we went from 1 577 to 1583. I think

that may stole a little bit from from

April basically pending sales that

happened in March that would

traditionally would have closed in April

instead closed in May that's that's my

theory on that

now we may it's it's going to be

interesting to see what happens with

some of this closed sales data

if you're looking on YouTube you can

see that that the line went way way down

towards the end of 2022. so we're

going to see some as we're comparing

year on year to 2022 we're going to see

some some positive prints when it

comes to closed sales because it's not

likely to go as low as it did in 2022

where so that doesn't mean that the

Market's getting way better it just

means that it's it's not as bad as

2022 at the second half of 2022 when we

saw the the one of the craziest real

estate crashes that we've ever

experienced

and you say that people are shocked

they don't understand that the real

estate market crashed but it really did

but it just crashed in a different way

than it has in the past

and so people need to understand that

as I've said before we are in a new

normal the real estate crash currently

it doesn't look the same as it has in

the past just like inflation and all of

that none of that looks the same as it

has in the past we've got this robust

job market

fed increasing rates inflation coming

down a lot of things are different and

that's because you know we we had this

very weird time during the pandemic when

there was a lot of easy money going

around the market

corrected for that

and then the FED corrected for that

and then

and then we had this thing with Russia

and Ukraine Russia invading Ukraine and

all of that and that caused more issues

and so and now you know the FED is

increasing the rate so we've got all of

these different things happening all at

the same time

in the housing market we also had

Millennials My Generation

come on really strong and also

Gen X came on really strong so

Millennials kind of came on Market in

towards the end of 2019 into 2020 kind

of in force but also Gen X did as well

so and and we all know the Baby Boomers

are sitting on the largest collection of

cash in the history of the U.S

and they've been very active in the

housing market as well so we have a kind

of an unprecedented amount of Demand

with three generations being

competing against each other for housing

and so all of that combined is what kind

of caused things to be crazy the way

the way they've been

okay so so moving right along to days

on Market until sale this is a very

interesting number here so

this is the average number of days

between when a property is listed and

when an offer is accepted in a given

month

and we had seen obviously this

increase it had been in the 20s for a

long time which is

crazy now if you're selling a home to

have a home 20 21 days on the market

until it sells feels like an eternity

trust me I know

I know this is from first-hand

experience flipping houses it feels like

forever

but

again this is an average right some

homes sell right away some take months

and so what we know historically is

that 20 in the 20 in the sub 30 days on

Market range as a market average that's

way way low like if you're looking at

the at the graphic that was those

were just insane numbers so it had to

come up from there we knew it was going

to come up from there it hit 58 days

on Market until sale in March but it's

been coming down since then and so now

in may we had 44 days on Market until

sale that's still a 120 percent increase

year on year

but it's interesting to see that

number coming down now I do think that

that's a seasonal thing

I do expect for that to probably

hop back up in the summer months but

we'll have to to keep track of that I

did not expect it to go back into the

low 40s so that one caught me a little

bit by surprise so Holmes did start

to pick up we saw an influx of demand

during the Spring busy season

but I am

not confident that that's going to

sustain for the remainder of the less

busy part of the busy season of Real

Estate

this is something that we're going to

have to spend some time talking about

the median sales price okay for the

first time in a in a long time we saw a

decrease year on year in the median

sales price we can officially say that

prices went down in the greater

Greenville area in the month of May it

didn't go down by much it was point six

percent May 2022 was 316 832

May of 2023 was 315

000. so about fifteen hundred dollar

difference but it's the first

decline that we've seen in a very very

long time we were we've been flirting

with it right in February we only saw a

point one percent increase so we almost

saw a decrease year on year in February

but we finally had it happen in

May so what does this mean how does this

compare historically well I've told you

guys in the past that historically we do

it's it's not

completely out of the

question or it's not like it never

happens that prices see a decrease year

on year this does happen from time to

time and it doesn't mean that prices are

going down now I'm not saying that it's

an impossibility for prices to go down I

don't hear that I'm saying that

but it doesn't inherently mean when we

have a negative month that prices are

going down

before however I talk about that I

do want to look at the at the actual

data

if we can go back to the middle of

last year we saw prices Skyrocket into

that 315 range which was a big jump from

January of of 2022 it went all the way

from it was roughly in the 280 range

and it jumped all the way up to 315 000.

if you're looking in in just a few

months if you're looking at at the

chart that I have here you can see that

that is a very very big jump

historically there's not a whole lot to

compare it to and then it kind of

hovered around that 315

000 number and then when rates started

going up it then plummeted and that's a

a big crash down to the beginning of

this year and now it's kind of hopped

back up to something very close to what

it was around this time last year so

even though it is a it is a decrease

year on Year we're seeing it's pretty

comparable and so what I expect is going

to happen is probably we'll see a few

more negative prints before the end of

this year I think I you know there's a

good chance that as we're kind of

comparing to June July August

September a few of those my months might

come in negative in the median price

point year on year

but then as we start to compare year on

year to these fall months where it

really went down very quickly I think

we'll probably go back into positives

year on year and end the year 2023 with

a slight increase in the median price

point year on year that's my prediction

now with regard to median price point

decreases like I said they do happen

they don't happen super often but it

does happen from time to time

if you're if you're looking at the

chart that I have in front of you or the

the graph that I have in front I always

get graphs and charts confused so I

apologize if I keep doing that

but if you see the vertical

lines those lines are always January and

and so we have all these vertical lines

if you look at January 2020 this is

pre-pandemic so the pandemic I'm not

looking I'm not going to compare to

data from that was impacted by the

pandemic I'm not going to compare to

data that was impacted by the by the

Great Recession that's that's flawed

data to compare to I want to compare to

a normal Market well January 2020 it was

still normal real estate had not yet

in Greenville been impacted by the

pandemic

that was a month that we had a year

in on year decline in the median price

point January 2019 was a higher month

than January 2020. we saw something

similar in August of 2014 August of 2014

you you can't really see it if you're

looking at the graphic but there was a

very slight decrease from August of 2014

to August of 2013 and then in June of

2013 there was also a very slight

decrease year on year so same thing

we're seeing a very slight decrease year

on year with May and what I expect is

because of how the market has cooled

down due to rates and whatnot I think

that we'll probably have a few more of

these negative you're on your you're

on your prints and you know

what's happening I I'm seeing this

personally is that people are Panic

selling right this is not the time to

panic sell don't well my opinion is that

it's not the time to panic cell I think

that people should should hold out you

know what your home is worth you know

the inventory is still low even though

it's it's going up

I don't think that this is the time

to panic sell and take less than your

house is worth there it depends on

everyone's situation

but I'm seeing some instances where

instances where people are taking way

way less than demonstrably what their

what their home is worth and that is

not good for anyone when that happens

and so that's going to cause some of

these numbers to get dragged down

and that's what happened that's what

we saw in the month of May it wouldn't

shock me again if we see that a few more

times before the summer season is over

and then I think in the fall we're going

to to start to see some pretty

consistent positive prints

we'll see I think that we'll probably

stay pretty close like by the end of the

year we'll probably end pretty close to

300 000

so for us to see a positive year

on year you know we have to be basically

let's see here what was January we ended

January

at or actually I should go back to

December of 2022 December of 2022 was

295 000. so as long as we as long as

we see the median price point be above

295 000 by the end of the year will be

in the positive for the year 2023. I do

think that that's going to happen but

we'll have to track it I'm not I'm

definitely not guaranteeing that now

interestingly the average sales price

which is a less helpful metric because

it's impacted heavily by very expensive

homes that sell but the average sales

price increased by 3.4 percent so that

tells me that we're seeing a lot more

expensive homes that that are selling

relative to the market right now and

that's the second consecutive positive

print and we've only seen one negative

print and that was in in March

not putting a whole lot of weight in

this but I find that to be find that

to be interesting

the percent of sorry if you hear my

dog barking she loves to do that that's

her favorite thing to do she she's been

seeing squirrels all day

it's rainy and she goes nuts

when she sees squirrels so that might be

what you're hearing

percent of list price received this is

the percentage found when dividing a

property sales price by its most recent

list price okay most recent list price

important caveat because the price

may have decreased at some point there

may have been a price reduction prior to

going under contract and it does not

account for that

so then you take the property sales

price

sorry you divide a property sales

price buy its most recent list price and

then take the average for all properties

sold in a given month not accounting for

seller concessions also an important

detail because there's a lot more sour

concessions sellers helping buyers with

their closing costs than there have been

and so this is this is a so the

percent of list price received is at

98.9 percent

which is historically pretty close to

what we've seen in the past actually

historically still pretty high

but in comparison to a year ago it's

very low because a year ago it was one

101.7 which was the highest number

that we've ever had

I believe yeah that was the the

peak that we saw

of the entire Market was when it hit

101.7 of list price received and that

was a crazy number because there were

also no sour concessions basically being

offered so this 2.8 percent decrease

really should be it's it's probably

closer to like a six or seven percent

decrease because in May of last year

there were very few price reductions and

there were no sour concessions

whereas now there's a decent number of

price reductions happening and a lot of

seller concessions being being

provided

so a huge you're on your swing but

we've been seeing this all year so far

so so that's not anything huge what's

more interesting to me is the month on

month that we've now seen three

straight months of increases month on

month and the percent of list price

received so sours can expect

generally speaking to get close to 99 of

what a home is listed for

I say generally speaking because again

these are averages right

and so it just it depends on a lot of

different factors and I'm seeing huge

variabilities in this in in my

personal business

I just listed three homes recently

one of them went a decent bit above list

price the other two went below this

price and so they they do average out

and they do balance out but it's not

like you can you know linearly expect

okay if I list my house I'm just gonna

get 99 of what it's listed for that's

not exactly how this works

housing affordability index

not great it's the the lowest it's

ever been on here at 87.

basically we want this number to be

at 100 which 100 means that the median

household income can afford the median

priced home essentially and so it's at

87 which is primarily just due to

mortgage rates being being higher

than they've been in a while

inventory of homes for sale

it's the highest that it's been in a

while it's up to almost 3 600 that's an

87.5 percent increase year on year we

knew that this was going to go up but

it had been kind of going down a little

bit since the end of last year but in

May it really shot up

and now we're getting close to what

it used to be pre-pandemic where it was

in the high high threes low fours and so

we'll keep tracking that it's still

historically very low 3600 is still very

very low inventory and you have to

remember even though demand has really

Fallen greatly the past year demand is

still strong in the Greenville Market

and it come in comparison to previous

years if you go back pre-pandemic

demand is still pretty strong I mean we

can go back to if if we go back to

closed sales data

you look at where we are and and you

compare that to previous years and it's

like oh yeah we're we're actually we're

having closed sales still at much higher

rates than what they were in you know

2017 2018 around that period of time and

if you go back further than that it's

way way higher than 2013 2014. so our

demand even with being in a housing

recession

in Greenville is still extremely

strong so to see inventory be then way

below us or still a decent bit below

what it was in those years where we had

the lower demand that this is why we're

not seeing prices crash we saw prices go

down but we're not seeing them crash and

I don't think they're going to crash

this is why I still feel like we're

going to see a positive for the year a

positive number is the most likely

scenario for the median price point

year on year

because of this Dynamic where supply

and demand demand is still is still

greater than it has been in comparison

to many years Supply is still lower in

comparison to what it has been it's just

we got used to a couple of years where

it was so out of whack where demand was

so much greater than Supply that it

feels weird right now right it feels

like the market has really really

corrected and it has but it still hasn't

corrected to the point where we've

dialed back the clock to you know

2017 or 2018. it feels more closely

it feels similar to 2019 even though

it's still not quite like that month's

supply of inventory so this takes the

the inventory this looks at the

inventory of homes for sale at the end

of a given month divided by the average

monthly pending sales from the past 12

months this is going to be skewed Again

by that pending sales number not being

accurate for the past month

so it says 2.9 months of inventory

it's probably going to be closer to

like 2.5 2.6 if I had to guess once they

revised the data

that's very very low again this is

exactly what I just talked about demand

is still Stronger Than People realize

Supply is still lower than people

realize

this number it's very comfortable

when it's in the high fours low fives

it's considered a a basically even

Market not a buyer's or seller's market

when it's around six

historically speaking now I've made

the argument on this on the show in the

past that I think that we need to kind

of retool that a bit and rethink that

but right now it's still below three

months of inventory that's still very

much a seller's market even if it

doesn't feel like a seller's market it

is and that's reflected in the fact that

we still have a lot of bidding wars

happening we still have homes going for

on average 99% of what

they're listed for

and so we'll we'll continue to see

low months supply of inventory

even though inventory has definitely

picked up I've definitely felt this

right so I what I'll do sometimes is

I'll just look at okay very this is a

very simple way of doing it

but it's an interesting way to do it

I'll just look at what are all the

active listings in the residential part

of the Greenville MLS so I've been doing

this regularly for the past several

months and it was in like the 2500 range

for a while

but right now it's in the 2700 range

and and approaching 2 800.

so we're seeing inventory levels

going up we're seeing more homes that

are staying on the market that aren't

selling

and so that's what's being

reflected in inventory sellers need to

just be prepared for that that they

they're gonna have to wait longer to

sell their home than than their

neighbors did a year ago that's just the

reality of the situation

that's all I'm not going to get into

any other data there's plenty of other

data that we could get into but that's

all that I'm going to get into now I

hope that that was helpful I hope that

that was interesting for you guys

there is plenty more that we can talk

about plenty of plenty more that that I

intend to talk about

I'm probably going to be recording

another podcast today that will then

come out later on

but needless to say a lot of

interesting things happening in the real

estate market right now and and I'm

excited to see how it continues to

happen I don't have you know a

doomsday Outlook or concern we've

already seen we've already been in a

housing recession now for a year you

know it's like could it get worse yes it

absolutely could get worse but guess

what I have seller clients and I have

buyer clients

and so that helps if it flips to a

buyer's market then my buyers will be

happy if it flips to a crazier sellers

Market that my sellers will be happy so

that's the way I approach it and

and I to me I feel like I'm in a good

position to to weather the storm even

with closings being you know a third

fewer than what they've been the past

few years but with that in mind I do

always appreciate more business if you

guys have any business to send my way

please let me know whether it's your

business whether your friend family

please have them reach out to me my

contact information is is in the show

notes please subscribe to my YouTube

channel Stan I believe it's Stan

McCune

7303 something like that just search

Stan McCune and you'll find me on

YouTube selling Greenville on all of the

podcast platforms that are out there

please subscribe rate review we will

talk again next time