Hello everyone and Welcome to another

episode of Selling Greenville your

favorite real estate podcast here in

Greenville, South Carolina, I'm your host

as always Stan McCune realtor right here

in the greater Greenville area of South

Carolina you can find all of my contact

information in the show notes if you

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today

today's gonna be a challenging

episode for me particularly from the

standpoint of doing this on YouTube

because I don't do a whole lot of

editing to the show if any editing

particularly on the video side of things

I just don't have time for that

I'm a busy realtor

I don't make any money from this podcast

except insofar as it drives real estate

business my way

so I just don't have the the time to

invest in doing heavy editing into it

but thankfully you guys have been very

generous and gracious in terms of being

okay with that

but I've got a lot of data here that

I'm going to be looking at and if you

are really interested in data you might

want to be watching this on YouTube I

will be showing you my spreadsheet my

very secret spreadsheet and no

doubt there will be someone on here that

is much better at spreadsheets than I am

or that will have a better system than I

have and that's great I'm very proud of

you pat yourself on the back I'm doing

the best that I can I'm I'm pretty good

with spreadsheets but I'm certainly no

data analyst you know from a

professional standpoint

but nonetheless I will be showing you

on YouTube the actual spreadsheets

that I'm working with for this

episode and so some of you might find

that interesting some of you might not

but I might stumble through a few things

here I don't know we'll see but I'm

going to try to do this the best I

possibly can but today's episode is

about the difference between list

price and sold price specifically as we

are you know now we've had a year of of

the market shift

since the market really the real estate

market really had its downturn after

rates started going up and prior to that

point in time sellers were getting more

than what they listed their home for

you know there was I just discussed

this recently there was a month where

last year where sellers on average were

getting over near basically a hundred

one and a half percent of what their

homes were listed for which is insane

well obviously that's not the case

anymore but the question remains how

like what type of homes are are

selling for less than what they're

listed for how much are they selling for

less than than they're listed for and

like how long do we have to wait and

this is actually a listener question

Chris if you're listening you were

one of the people that that made me

think about this but I also had some

others that kind of mentioned

some similar things and I realized you

know what I have a gut feeling about

this but I need to actually see what the

data has has to say for this

and you guys know those of you that have

listened for a while I'm a data guy I

like to inform my opinions off of what

the actual data says and thankfully

we've got tons of it in the past six

months we've got a lot of great data

and so what I did was I did just

that from June 19th and going back

six months I looked at everything in

Greenville MLS that has sold and and

then basically broke it down by

different categories of how much cheaper

it sold for than in comparison to the

original list price now

in Greenville MLS we have a few

different prices that it shows and

I'm going to on YouTube

pull up my spreadsheet so here you go

there's an original price there's a list

price and there's a sold price a little

bit confusing the original list price is

the original price that it was listed

for the list price is the the final

price prior to it going under contract

so if there's a difference between the

original price and the list price that

indicates that there was a price

reduction at some point and I had to do

a lot of massaging to this data because

you'd be surprised how many Realtors

out there will list the house originally

that's like supposed to be 250 000 and

they will list it for 250 million

dollars and then like a day later

realize their mistake

and so nonetheless I had

to massage quite a bit of this but I

feel pretty good about where I got it to

and then we've got of course the sold

price which is the final the the final

price that it sold for which does not

include sour concessions so if a seller

paid for buyer closing costs

m that's not going to appear in the

sold price now number that's a separate

column if you're looking at this it's

column q and I what I did was I did

factor that in

to the difference between the list

price and the sold price and so

some of you that are are really

paying close attention to some of

these spreadsheets you'll notice that

some of the numbers don't completely add

up and that's because

very simply

I factored in the closing costs

into the median when calculating the

difference between the list price and

the final sold price and and so that's

why when you add up the

difference plus the sold price it's not

going to a hundred percent of the time

equal the original price so I just

want to be clear on that if you have no

idea what I'm talking about don't worry

about it don't worry about it just

just listen to what I'm saying I promise

you this data is accurate

so let's just start right away my

first data set that I looked at was

homes that sold at greater than a 30

discount and I'm using discount in this

way

if a home sold for up to

69.99

of what it was originally listed for

then it sold at a 30 or more discount so

these are homes that sold for way

less than what they were originally

listed for at least 30 percent less than

what they were originally listed for so

what kind of homes is it that we can

expect to sell for this far below what

they're listed for and why is this

important this is important because some

people

will want to to put in lowball offers

on properties

investors people that are kind of

trying to stretch your budget or

whatever

and it's oftentimes just a waste of

time like there's there are several

companies out there that will just

immediately win an offer or when a new

listing comes up they will immediately

submit an offer on that new listing and

it'll oftentimes be a lowball offer

and what they do is it's just a numbers

game for them they'll do this to several

hundred properties per year and

hopefully get a few of them to actually

bite

well for most investors that's a

that's a big investor for most investors

that's a huge time drain it doesn't make

sense

and so we need to approach this from

the standpoint of okay what are the odds

or or what I shouldn't say what are the

odds what needs to happen for this home

to come down to the price point that

I'm interested in and is that even

likely to happen

and so that's the point of what I'm

trying to reverse engineer here in

looking at this data so let's just start

I looked at the median and the average

but the median I feel like is is gonna

be much more accurate we've talked about

that in other shows

so I'm really not even going to be

focused too heavily on the average

but the I looked at the median for

the number of Acres the prices the

difference between the price

including between the the list price

or the original list price and the sold

price including sour concessions then

the percent difference the sold price

per square foot and the number of days

that it was on the market until it went

under contract

I also looked

well we don't see it here but there's

some other things that that I looked at

as well that will get into a little

bit later

so these homes that sold for greater

than 30 percent of a discount so they

sold for 30 percent less than what they

were originally listed for

the median number of Acres this is kind

of interesting is five is

0.565 so over half an acre so what that

immediately tells me based on the

Greenville Market is that these homes

are generally in rural areas these are

homes that are typically in rural areas

and the final sold price was 160,000

that's nearly half of what the median

sold prices just Market wide so that

tells me that these are also

fixer-uppers

on average or on median I'm gonna

say on average because on median just

sounds really weird but know when I say

that I actually mean the median

the median original list price was

249,900.

and so that median

sold price of 160 000 is nearly a 90

thousand dollar difference between the

original list price the sold price which

comes out to ultimately a 64.8 percent

difference so these were essentially

obtained for 35 percent a little bit

more than 35 five percent less than what

they were originally listed for

sold for an average of of a hundred

dollars and sixty three cents per square

foot again that's Fixer-Upper territory

and so how long did it take before

these went under contract it was 92 days

so three months is a good rule of thumb

if you see a property that is really

really overpriced when it comes on the

market it's a fixer-upper in a rural

area

you typically have to wait nine

roughly three months before the

seller is willing to accept a a an offer

that is greater than 30 percent of what

it was originally listed for now another

interesting little data set is that on

average these had reduced their price

by over fifty thousand dollars so the

average list price or the median list

price I'm gonna keep doing this aren't I

the median list price prior to going

under contract was 197 000. remember

these started at 249.9

so you need to look for a few things

you need to to to look for time to have

passed several months and ideally

and in most scenarios you will

have seen some substantial price drops

and then from there there was

another substantial price drop for the

average for the median sales price which

was a hundred sixty thousand

so that was that's kind of the

way to kind of look at this okay

when these properties that are really

really overpriced overpriced by 30 or

more hit the market they're not going to

accept by and large an offer that's 30

35 less than what they're listed for

right away they're gonna have to have

some price drops and it's going to take

some time before the seller really comes

through their senses and realizes okay I

need to take a big hit on this I also

looked at the way these were acquired

whether it was cash or finance and

70.31 of these were cash purchases again

if you that supports that these are

fixer-uppers but this is by far the

highest number that 70.3 percent of cash

buyers so you really need cash if you if

you're purchasing a property at this

type of a discount you're only going to

do so for the most part with cash now

29.69 we're Finance but that's

unbelievably oh in comparison to any

other numbers that you'll ever see

so those Finance purchases

were probably mostly conventional you

can see a little bit of that off to the

side here there is a an FHA and a VA

that I see but a lot of these are are

conventional

and so that's just something to to

keep in mind typically speaking for that

type of discount you're gonna have to

purchase cash now there are some rehab

loan options that are FHA or

conventional for Fixer-Upper homes

they're not the easiest to do but

I've done them several times with

several clients and I've also done them

myself for my first home that I

purchased so it is feasible

you just have to to know what you're

getting into

so let's look at homes that sold for 20

to 30 percent less than technically 20

to 29.99 less than what they were

originally listed for what's the profile

for these types of homes well for

starters the acreage goes down so now

we're getting less rural but it's still

the median of 0.38 Acres sets still

larger than we typically see in

Greenville County Greenville County

you know with all of the the newer

construction that we've had

Greenville County has become a place

where you're typically going to find

less than a quarter acre lot so this is

still going to have us in some

pretty heavily rural areas and some

Suburban areas

the median original list price was

300 299 900 with median final list

price after drops of 260 000 and then

median sold price of 235 000 when you

factor in the closing costs that the

that the seller paid

on average the difference between the

list price and the the original list

price of 300 000 and the final sold

price was 72 000.

so that comes out to an average of

basically a 23

discount in relation to the the

original price the original list price

and the final sold price so

there is and and the sample size for

this I should mention the sample size

for the ones that sold for greater than

a 30 discount this is over six months

it's only 64 of them right and if you're

looking at my spreadsheet you'll see

it's 65 but you have to Discount the

top row so 64 homes that's that's

nothing in a six month period of time

there's not that's not many homes

now homes that sold for 20 to 30

percent less than the original list

price still very low number only 183 of

them so these are not large sample size

it's very hard to find these homes

that are selling for way below what they

were originally listed for

but these homes are also primarily

fixer-uppers the medians sales price

per square foot is 136. that's not

terrible

like that means that some of

them aren't fixer-uppers I'm not going

to say that they all were but by and

large that's still a pretty low number

price per square foot by Greenville

County standards and what's interesting

is that the days on Market until these

actually sold was 101 days so actually

even higher than the one before and

that's probably because these are in

better condition

again they sold for on average for

235 000 as opposed to the last sample

that we looked at which was 160 000. so

these people probably are kind of more

like you know these sellers are more

like I feel like I can get more for

this house you know probably a lot of

these are just they just overpriced them

right and and we've talked about this in

the past you overpriced your home

dramatically by fifteen thousand dollars

or more you're going to end up getting

way less than that fifteen thousand

dollars that you overpriced it by

and so that's exactly what I think is

happening here in in a lot of these

instances so again if you want a if you

want to get a home for for 20 to 30

percent less if you feel like a home is

overpriced by 20 to 30 percent

you're gonna have to wait

several months and you're gonna have to

see at least well to go from 300 to 260

000 which is the final list price that's

several price reductions most of the

time so you're probably gonna have to

see several price reductions and you're

probably gonna have to see it language

on the market for several months

so talking again about the cash versus

Finance discussion the cash percentage

is still high typically what we've been

seeing since the pandemic is Cash

percentages cash purchase percentages

are typically around 20 maybe 25

in this case and this sample size is

34.43 of these that sold were purchased

with cash but we do have nearly 66

percent that were purchased with

financing so now these are much more

financable properties maybe even some of

these that are fixer-uppers were more

cosmetic fixer-uppers possible to be

financed I also included another piece

of data which is new construction

because new construction starts to

become more of a factor here and new

construction has really warped some of

the data because home builders really

got hit last year and into the beginning

of this year and so had to start really

offering a lot of discounts primarily by

means of closing costs and that's why I

included the the seller concessions as

one of the data points in here was

because if I didn't do that

it would again really skew the data so

19.67 percent of these properties that

sold for 20 to 30 percent less than what

they originally listed for were new

construction homes which is very

interesting

and to have new construction

selling for on average in the 235 range

that tells me this is mostly affordable

new construction

and so there is a category there are

incentives that the that Greenville

County will sometimes provide for

Builders to to build affordable

housing for people that meet certain

income low-income requirements and so

that looks like what's happening here

that's the kind of new construction but

20 of of this sample actually ended up

being that so you almost kind of have to

throw that out the window right away

and so that also is going to skew

most of those are going to be financed

purchases as well

and so really

the finance percentage of 66 is

probably a little bit on the high side

is because it's kind of skewed by the

new construction numbers hopefully that

makes sense let's look at homes that

sold 10 to 20 percent below what they

were originally listed for

these homes are starting to look a lot

more like your average Greenville home

0.27 acre lot originally listed for 318

990 so basically three hundred nineteen

thousand

price drop down to 289 900. so

what's that that's basically a thirty

thousand dollar price drop that

happened over the course of the listing

with a sold price average sold price of

279 900 so let's just round that up 319

original list price 290 final list

price after reductions and then 280

final sold price that's after you factor

in sour concessions that's a a

difference of 42,524 with an average of

86.68 of the original list price so

roughly a 13 to 13 and a half percent

discount is what these came out with

150 a square foot basically was your

median sold price per square foot

um so that's starting to look again more

like a normal Greenville home so how

long did these take before these went

under contract it took 91 days

on average for the so again we're

still in that three month range before

these went under contract so what can

you expect again it's the same story

except the price reductions are starting

to get to be less right you might have

let's say that you have someone that

that starts with their listing their

home at 320.

and then eventually they realize okay

we're not getting any bites on this

let's reduce it to 310 and then it's

like okay we're still not getting any

bites let's do it to 300 a little bit of

activity still not enough then 290 and

then they go under contract shortly

thereafter

and so you know typically people

start reducing their price so if they

have no activity right away they'll

probably reduce the price within the

first few weeks if they have activity

right away it might take a month before

they reduce their price

and so and then you know it just

kind of goes from there so three months

so far is what we've seen as kind of a

rough rule of thumb if you're looking

for a home that is between that is

sorry if you're wanting to make an offer

on a home that is

less than 10 or more less than that's an

awkward way of saying it

but you're wanting a discount of

basically 10 or more off of what they're

they have it listed for if it's been

listed for less than three months not

super great odds that you're going to

get it now that 91 days is a median so

that means that somewhere higher and

somewhere lower and you can even see

that if you're looking at the

spreadsheet on YouTube you can see the

breakdown that there's a 13-day one

there's a 37 day one a 41 day one and so

we do need to to take that into

consideration as well it is possible

every situation is different the way I

would look at it is how many price

reductions have they made how aggressive

have those price reductions been

and then kind of take it from there

in some instances I see homes sometimes

that have basically no price reductions

but we know it's way overvalued in terms

of how what they have it listed at

and so it's been on the market for

several months but no price reductions

well why what's going on there

and so that's where there can be some

opportunities to kind of do a little bit

of digging for me to call the agent see

what's going on sometimes there's some

kind of backstory

and then maybe a deal can be struck I

usually have several of those per year

so it just kind of depends on the

situation

but with my clients I'm usually very

Frank if they ask me hey do you think

there's an opportunity here I'm usually

I'll usually just say if I don't

think so no I don't think

it's been on the market long

enough to for us to really take the time

now if I have a client that is just like

you know what I still want to make the

offer of course I'm going to write the

offer I'm legally obligated to do that

but if you're asking me you're going

to get my opinion and I'll just tell you

exactly what I think

for these the the percentage of cash

purchases was 19.65 so again a

normalized number the finance percentage

was 80.35 percent

and then almost 25 percent of these were

new construction

so that's that's very interesting

again the the home builders really

offering a lot of incentives are are

really bolstering up these numbers in a

lot of ways

and so

again you need to consider that you know

if you're if you're thinking okay

I want to

to purchase something below what

it's listed for

again within within these bandwidths a

large percentage of the homes that are

selling below what they're listed for

are typically new construction right now

simply because the builders have had to

do some different things in order to

try to move inventory now there's a

total of 1043 properties that that

fit this 10 to 20 percent discount

category again not a huge number but

substantially more than what we've been

looking at up to this point again this

is over six months

so a thousand 43 over six months

isn't much but it's way more than what

we've been seeing so let's look at five

to ten percent homes that sold at a five

to ten percent discount relative to

their original list price

these homes very similar number of

acreage 0.265

the original list price 320 very

similar to what we just looked at the

final list price 305 slightly higher

than what we just looked at so this is

more like maybe one and maybe in some

cases two price reductions but in many

cases just just one price reduction can

get you from 320 to 305 and then a final

sold price of 299.9 basically 300 sets

when you factor in sour concessions a

difference of twenty three thousand

forty

and so the the percent difference was

92.86 so basically a seven percent plus

a little bit discount relative to the

original list price of 320 000. how long

did these have to be on the market 52

days before on average they went under

contract so you see a home that's listed

for you know that's it seems to be in

pretty good shape and desirable part of

Greenville that's probably what most of

these are it's listed for pretty close

to you know not too far off what it

should be worth

but a little bit on the high side

you're gonna be waiting basically a

month and a half before on average

before the seller is willing to to

really come down into you know

basically offering you greater than a

five percent discount

20.99 of these purchases were cash 79

were financed 21 were 21.13 were new

construction

so these numbers look again these are

looking very very average

by and large

and so again if you're if you cease a

home that you think is overpriced by

five to ten percent

odds are you need to wait at least a

month generally speaking before

you're going to be able to get the price

down and then when you do get the price

down

it's going to be typically

somewhere between five and ten percent

there was

1490 homes that fit into this category

so

this is this is again we're starting

to see kind of more what the normal

Market in Greenville looks like

so I took it one step further I

looked at homes that sold between a two

to five percent discount

because you think about it the a

normal

situation that we find ourselves in

is homes on average sell for 98 to 99

of what they're what they're listed for

so I wanted to take it one step further

and look at that two to five percent

discount and so again very very similar

original numbers 0.27 Acres very similar

to the past two categories we looked at

original list price of three hundred

nineteen thousand very similar to the

the previous two we've looked at

only a very slight

final list price of 317

265. so only a two thousand dollar

average price reduction and then a sold

price of three hundred thirteen thousand

two hundred

and so you come up with the

difference between the list price and

sold price factoring in sour concessions

of $10,000 which

comes out to a roughly three plus three

point one four basically percent

difference between the original list

price and the final sold Price Plus sour

concessions

the price per square foot no surprise

is the highest of the group at

164.17 and the cumulative days on Market

25 days on Market

so this is and the and the number of

of listings in this category the highest

of all the groups 1680.

and so this is

the the vast majority of homes that are

getting a

discount relative to the the original

list price

are going to be between a two and

five percent discount

or

to think about it another way it's going

to be typically less than five percent

still a decent sample of homes between

10 and sorry between five and twenty

percent discount but you have to wait a

lot longer for those homes to kind of

come to their senses for the sellers to

come to their senses to have multiple

price drops these numbers getting a home

between 2 and 5%

between a two and five percent discount

relative to the original list price

again

there's not much of a difference between

the original list price and the final

list price so a lot of these homes did

not have any price reductions and if

you're looking at this on YouTube you

can see that a lot of them did not have

any price reductions at all and so

there's an opportunity here perhaps

these are homes that haven't a lot of

these homes have been on the market for

for two three weeks and haven't yet

had that first price reduction but

they're but the sellers are starting to

sweat they're starting to wonder okay

you know I haven't gotten a ton of

activity I haven't gotten any offers I

just want to get this home under

contract so there's an opportunity there

potentially to get that under

contract at a you know three and a half

percent discount in comparison to what

it's listed for before they go in and

drop the price and then potentially

cause some other offers to come in

because that can happen I've seen

instances where a price reduction

happens and then multiple offers come in

very frustrating if you're a buyer in

that situation but it does happen it's

better to get under contract before that

price reduction than to wait for the

price reduction to happen but again you

have to be realistic these are homes

selling on average for 164 dollars a

square foot these are generally homes

that are in good condition the sold

price is right there at the median 313.2

that's very close to the median sales

price for the greater Greenville area

so these are solid homes that

probably don't need a whole lot of work

in good areas

the percent the cash percentage right

there where we normally see it 19.7

percent the finance percentage

80.3%

there's a little bit of a

yeah it's it's a got me a number a

little bit above 100 so I don't know why

that is but it's actually

80.36 but anyway eight basically 20 80

split between cash and finance the new

construction percentage was 17.38

and so I found that to be

interesting I also broke this down a few

other different ways because I wanted to

see you know new construction obviously

in this category is going to be

working a little bit different than

in some of the other categories so I

wanted to see

how many of these properties that are in

here because of that days on market

number being so low only 25 days on

Market until they went under contract

how many of those were

zero to three days on market and then

how many of the new construction

properties were zero days on Market

because what we see with a lot of home

builders is they won't enter it listing

until it's already under contract and so

that skews some of the data

it wasn't super enlightening but a

little bit

the number of properties that were

zero to three days on Market was 13.69

so what does that mean what that what

I was trying to reverse engineer here

was how frequently do we see sellers

immediately accept an offer that is two

to five percent less than what what it's

listed for

basically based on this data and it's

13.69 percent not a lot of the time

but then

out of that number when you break it

down how many

zero days on Market were new

construction that was two and a half

percent of the total subset and then the

resale zero days on Market was 11.19

so zero days on Market

and that's a that's a very interesting

metric because usually when something is

on on the market for zero days

that it sold right away so there's

something going on there that caused it

to sell right away

sometimes there are some fishy things

a huge percentage of the time you'll see

it that the buy buyer's agent and the

listing agent are the same agent in

those instances and so it's kind of like

there was some kind of deal that was

worked out something that happened

you know in in the background that

they were perhaps working before it went

on Market

but the long story short is not a

whole lot like when you really think

about it

out of the

13.69 percent

and and I should specify at the the zero

days on Market this is really zero to

three days

for for all of these

so

really elev if you're looking at a home

that is

on the market it's really closer to an

11 chance that you'll get it to be

basically 98 of list price or lower

basically at a two percent discount

or greater to say another way that's

only going to happen roughly 11 of the

time based on the current market and a

lot of that

probably can be attributed to some

things happening behind the scenes as

well

so you typically have to even for

these properties have to have to wait

a few weeks so what do I extrapolate

from this data okay we nerd it out I

nerd it out a little bit on some data

for you guys probably a huge bunch of

you have already dropped out and for

those of you that are still sticking

with me to the end I applaud you I

appreciate you guys so much

basically

that the long story short of it is you

have to take all of these Case by case

but you can't assume Really

at all that once a home comes on the

market that you're gonna get it for at

least the way the market currently is

and I'm recording this in June 2023.

still very much a seller's market

when a home comes on the market it's

pretty much going to sell for what it's

listed for pretty close to what it's

listed for unless it's been on the

market for a few weeks then at that

point you might have an opportunity if

it hasn't had a price reduction maybe

you can get it for a little bit for

three percent for four percent below

what it's listed for

then if it's at multiple price

reductions right and and now it's been

on the market for a few months now you

have an opportunity to get it for you

know perhaps five to ten percent below

what it's listed for and then if it's if

it's had some big price reductions and

has been on the market for two three

months now you're you're staring at an

opportunity where you could get it for a

much bigger discount 10 20 30 below what

it's listed for that now becomes comes

into play but you might need to be a

cash buyer you're more likely to be a

cash buyer the higher that percentage of

discount goes and so that's something

that that you really have to

have to consider

and so all of that to be said

I think it's always good to to be

realistic when you're making an offer

when you're considering making an offer

there are ways to know whether a

property is listed for more than it

should be right and that's where I come

into play I can I can tell someone okay

yeah that's that's listed way above what

it should what it should be listed

for or no that that looks pretty good I

mean that's pretty much what I would

list it for

I'm happy to I'm always happy to to

share that kind of information with my

clients

and so

just if you're a client

or a potential client in the future

that's something you can always ask me

and I'll always share that I'm always

happy to make a a lowball offer but I'll

just be realistic with you if I don't

think that it's gonna be accepted and

sometimes it just makes sense for me to

talk to the agent and just discuss it

with them because what will happen

sometimes is you'll make a lowball offer

I have some clients that are like well

let's just make an offer that's 10 below

what it's listed for but I'm willing to

pay a lot more

the problem with with that strategy

can sometimes what can sometimes

happen is that it'll Poison the Well the

seller will get offended there's a lot

of emotions in real estate believe it or

not the seller will get offended they

won't take the offer seriously and then

you find yourself in a situation where

now the seller

doesn't even give like an actual

response I've had this happen multiple

times over the years seller doesn't give

a response buyer is still interested in

the property but now the buyer is in

this awkward position where it's like

well do I resubmit a higher offer now

you're kind of negotiating with yourself

negotiating against yourself and that's

an awful awful position to be as a as

a buyer

and so you have to really weigh all of

that out that's where I come into play

where I can assist with with kind of

helping formulate the strategy

and thinking about if our strategy is

realistic like is this the best course

of action or perhaps we just need to

wait until this this property has been

on the market a little bit longer before

we make that that low offer if you

have any questions just let me know you

guys can reach out to me contact

information in the show notes rate

review subscribe like comment all of

those things on the show wherever you're

watching or listening to it I appreciate

you guys and we will talk again next

time