Hello everyone and Welcome to another

episode of Selling Greenville your

favorite real estate podcast here in

Greenville, South Carolina, I'm your host

as always Stan McCune realtor right here

in the Greenville area of South Carolina

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review if you can and I always

appreciate that so today in case

you're hearing my dog in the

background you may very well be hearing

that

she's freaking out about something

but today we're going to be talking

about the greater Greenville Association

of Realtors Market stats something that

we frequently talk about on the show and

it's something that a lot of you guys

like for me to discuss and so

we're going to get right into the

stats that were just released about a

week ago as I'm recording this for

the month of June of course these stats

are always lagging a little bit

behind

that's just the nature of monthly

statistics but there's plenty of

interesting information on here and

there's plenty of prognosticating that

we can do on the basis of the

information that's on here so we're

going to start right away with new

listings data new listings data had the

lowest year-on-year print that we've had

in a very very long time

it was minus 17.8 year on year we went

from June of 2022 having

2331 listings which to this day is still

a record month so it's it's kind of hard

to compare it let me let me see one

two three four five six yeah if you're

looking on YouTube you can see very

clearly the month of of June is just

way higher of last year was way higher

than any other month so it was natural

that we were gonna come in lower but

to be 17.8 percent lower we had 1 915

new listings which isn't even the most

that we've had this year and this is one

of the most interesting Parts about this

new listings data is at the moment it

the way the trend is we may have peaked

in new listings in the month of March

now when was the last time that happened

you have to go all the way back to 2017

to see the last time that we had a March

or even just quarter one peak in new

listings data so that's that's very

interesting

and I think that that very well may

end up being what happens for this year

we may end up seeing that March data

being the peak because what happened as

as interest rates got high activity got

low and then activity started to Rebound

in November November was kind of when

buyer demand kind of stabilized

Nationwide

and then as that happened then

sellers you know after we hit like a

major major bottom in December of last

year then sour started to realize oh

wait demand didn't completely just

disappear demand has stabilized and

people are still buying homes and so

then we saw

all of a sudden this really crazy ramp

up that began in February and really

just went strong into March

and since then things have

from the standpoint of new listings

things have cooled off and this is

what's contributing to our low inventory

environment that we have here in in

the Greenville area but also pretty much

my understanding is just about

everywhere in in the US at this point

but with the exception of a few

markets like perhaps like Boise or or

perhaps like Las Vegas I don't follow

those markets super closely

m but I do know that there are a few

that inventory has has kind of spiked

and things have kind of cooled off even

more so than we've seen in other areas

not so in the Greenville Spartanburg

area of the upstate moving right along

pending sales I always have to caveat

pending sales are always low for some

reason

and then they revise the them later

on so we're not going to look at June's

numbers which are insanely low it looks

like there's a 43 decrease year on year

that's not going to be the case but we

can look at May May was down month on

month from April April was we had 1

508 pending sales that went down to 1

348 in the month of May and I suspect

that June will probably be even lower

than May that's what I think maybe in

the low 1300s or perhaps in the mid

1200s something like that

and so we're seeing a you know just

steady declines now we've we've had over

a year now of pending sales year on year

declines we're also seeing the month

on month decline from April into May

and that makes perfect sense with

what I'm seeing we have seen basically

an early kind of an early spike in in

the market peaking or I should say just

an early peak in the market

and since April things have not been

quite as crazy now that being said

I'm still quite busy and I'm very

grateful for that I'm grateful for all

of you guys that are listening that have

sent me business or that have referred

people to me

incredibly appreciative of that like I

can't express how often it's like I get

another you know someone else is calling

me that needs to sell their home or that

needs to to buy a home or that wants to

refer business to me that I just

have a lot of gratefulness for that

because I understand I know personally I

have friends that are not making it in

this business right now and that are

having to drop out

and I don't consider myself better

than them I simply consider myself very

fortunate and so thank you guys for

all of that not to get too emotional

here

but despite that from the the data

standpoint all of the numbers have

been going pretty much down and this

pending sales number for the month of

May was down 9.3% year on Year

from when it was 1486 in May of last

year it was down to 1 348 pending sales

and pending sales are just the count

of properties in which offers have been

accepted in a given month so that kind

of tells us what's going to happen in

the future so that tells us okay closed

sales in June are likely to be down and

then assuming pending sales in June once

the numbers get redacted assuming

that those are down that indicates you

know closed sales then in July and

August are going to be down

but that being said they're not down

nearly as much as what we saw towards

the end of last year and I've talked

about this a few times where we're

seeing around 25 percent decreases in

pending sales towards the end of last

year year on Year we're not seeing that

we've not crossed double-digit territory

in negative pendings basically since

last year since December of last year

that will that change

I think it's possible but I don't

think it's going to happen and that's

because we saw the big drop off in

pending sales when rate started going up

in June of last year so we're going to

start we we may actually I think it's

very possible in the fourth quarter

of this year when those pending sales

really Dove off I think that we will see

some positive pending sale prints we'll

see we'll have some months this year

where pending sales are higher than they

were the previous month or the

previous year same month so we'll have

some positive year on your prints and

pending sales I believe at some point

this year we might have to wait until

the fourth quarter for that to happen

but right now

we're still seeing

things less than what we had last year I

do think that that's going to change

simply because it can't get much worse

than what we had towards the end of last

year

closed sales

closed sales were up slightly the

month of May that was the first month

that we had seen that in a while and

that was driven by that high level of

activity that I just talked about in

March and then to a lesser extent in

April that kind of combined to result in

a a very good month of May from a closed

sales standpoint but June went down

7.3 percent year on year so we went from

from 1704 closings in June of 2023

all the way down to 1579 June of this

year but that 1579 number like the fact

that that's a year-on-year decrease of

7.3 percent if you're looking at the at

the graphic here that's still a very

high number historically and comparing

it to June of last year which was the

second highest on record the second

highest month of closed sales ever on

record

it's not surprising that that we had a

7.3 decrease year on year

what is interesting is that the

decrease you know it seems like probably

closed sales have did Peak in May I

think that that will probably hold true

but we didn't see a massive decrease

from May to June May that the difference

from May to June was only the difference

of eight closings May having

1587 this year in June of this year

having

1579 closings

so I do think those closing numbers

will come down but I have reason to

believe that we're not going to see a

precipitous decline what we're seeing

right now is essentially the the

Baseline of the market right when I say

demand stabilized what that essentially

means is that all the people that just

couldn't afford homes that were just

right on the fringes of being able to

afford homes and then rates started

going up all those people dropped out

when they dropped out they left all of

the fish in the sea as as it were that

could weather the storm of the rates and

maybe just wanted to wait and see what

would happen see if these rates these

higher rates were here we're going to be

here for a little bit longer than than

they hoped and once they realized that

then those fish kind of got back to

eating in the sea as it were

and so that's why I think we're seeing

here when it comes to closed sales now

what's

kind of surprising and honestly not

something that I really want to see at

all but days on Market until sale

actually continued their downward Trends

so we we saw this peak in March of this

year kind of February March both kind

of peaked around 57 58 days on Market

until sale

and just in case you haven't

listened to me go through this data

before that's the average number of days

between when a property is listed and

when an offer is accepted in a given

month and the historical historical

Norms was around

60-ish days between you know between 40

and 60 days was normal so

so we've been seeing up kind of

towards the peak of that in February

March of this year but then it started

to come back down in April it was 54 in

May it was 44 and now June we went all

the way back down to the 30s down to 39

days on Market until sale that is you

know if you get rid of the crazy years

between 2021 and 2022 when we saw

record lows this would be one of the

lowest numbers that we've ever seen on

here

and and for sure it's lower than any

number pre-pandemic so so we've

seen a steady decline in days on Market

until sale what that tells me and you

you know I I'll admit I'll be the first

to admit I was wrong on this I thought

that we were going to see this number

go up much higher than this February

March numbers and instead that hasn't

happened what's happened is inventory

has been so tight that people have still

found themselves not in the insane

bidding wars that we had the past couple

of years but they've still found

themselves in really competitive

situations where they're not able to

to just wait weeks and weeks and weeks

before making an offer on someone on on

a property and so these days on

Market have have really come down now

compared to the previous year again and

there's some seasonality to this

you can look at every year days on

Market fluctuates

and compared to June of 2022

it was 18 18 days on Market until sale I

I if that wasn't the record all time I

believe that was the all-time record if

it wasn't it was the second craziest

days on Market until sale number that

we've had so it's way higher than that

and that's great listen nobody there's

not a realtor in the world well I should

clarify there might be a listing

specialist there are some realtors that

claim to be listing Specialists that's

all they that's all they do

they might be happy when the day's on

Market until sale number is down but for

the rest of us that work with buyer

clients that is an uncomfortable number

when it's in the in the teens

39 is even a bit uncomfortable I'd

much rather have it in the mid 40s or

the 50s so I'm hoping that that number

jumps back up a little bit

but this number is a major thing to look

at to determine you know how much of a

seller's market are we in and right now

we're still very much in a seller's

market that part I have been saying this

entire time not none of this data has

changed to the point where we are no

longer in a seller's market at no point

has it

and if it does I'll be the first one

to tell you guys at least for the

Greenville statistics median sales

price so so last month when we did this

this episode the big headline of the

episode was at the price we saw a

year-on-year price drop For The First

Time in Forever

well that reversed in June in June we

saw an increase of 2.7 year on Year

from June of 2022 which was at 311

and change June of 2023 hopped up to 320

000. that is the highest number we've

ever had so we can we can say price are

not crashing in the Greenville Market

not only are they not crashing not only

have they stabilized but they have

reached a new peak of 320 000.

same story for average sales price I I

prefer to look at the media and I think

it's more accurate but the average sales

price

went up three and a half percent now

the average for those that care is at

384

000 and change

again I think the median is the the

better way of looking at this

and you know 2.7 percent year on year

that's a that's a surprisingly High

number so we'll have to see where this

continues to go but right now we're

we're seeing prices staying really

strong in in the Greenville market

and I find that to be quite interesting

housing affordability index

Greenville has changed some of the

algorithm here but one thing you can

definitely say for sure is that between

both house prices going up and

mortgage rates going up affordability

has gone way down the housing

affordability indexes 84. what that

means is that the the basically the

median household income is only able to

afford 84 of the median priced home

under prevailing interest rates so that

is not a number that anyone wants to see

unfortunately that is where we are

now if interest rates go down which I

don't see happening at least not

going down substantially

within the next

I don't see them going down

substantially within the next several

months I could see them perhaps going

down substantially at some point next

year for sure within the next couple of

years I think that'll happen

then we'll see this number rebound a

little bit we'll see the housing

affordability index improve and get a

little bit closer to 100 but I'm not

sure if it'll ever go back to 100

because once those interest rates once

those mortgage rates start to drop then

demand will increase and that'll push

prices up to unhealthy levels again

inventory of homes this is one that I

I you know just discovered is also a bit

misleading for the most recent month so

one maze numbers came out last month

it said that the inventory was around 3

500 and I remember saying wow okay we're

approaching that 4

000 home mark which was kind of the

pre-pandemic norm but then this month

they revised me down to three thousand

which is essentially where we've been

since January we've been hovering around

3 000 homes on Market

all year since January and so June's

number is 300 sorry 3774 which would

be a 45 increase year on year but I

actually think that that's probably

going to be closer to like 3 200 once

they revise this so we're still not

close to the pre-pandemic Norms but we

are seeing a little bit more inventory

coming up

staying on Market

even though we've got that days on

Market until sale number really low

I'm seeing a lot of inventory that is

staying staying on the market for a few

weeks what we're not seeing as much of

as we had you know pre-pandemic is these

homes staying on the market for months

and months and months

those homes that were doing that

either were taken off Market or

or ended up selling and so

here here we are we're just in a low

inventory State and so the month's

supply of inventory this is this is

taking the inventory of homes for sale

at the end of a given month divided by

the average monthly pending sales

from the last 12 months

so this is taking two numbers that are

wrong because we've already I've already

told you that the pending sales number

is is wrong for the previous month and

these inventory number is wrong for

the previous month they're they're both

they're both skewed as if we have a

lot more homes on the market than we

really do and a lot fewer sales than we

than we really do and so it's saying

that we're at three months of inventory

but really I think it's closer to two

and a half maybe 2.6 months of inventory

once this all gets revised last month

when the May numbers were out I believe

it was 2.9 for May and then that got

revised down to 2.4 months what does

that mean that means that again very

much this hour's Market anything

traditionally below six months of

inventory is considered a seller's

market I would say anything for the

current Norms anything below five months

of inventory for

for our Market here is going to feel

like a seller's market

I think if we see it go above five I

think at that point people would really

start to feel like okay this is more of

a buyer's market but at around in the

mid twos

or the threes it does not feel like a

buyer's market because it's not that is

very very squarely a sours Market these

are still very historically very very

low month supply of inventory numbers

and I don't see this changing anytime

soon I mean really the thing that could

potentially Drive changes here is if a

bunch of foreclosures came into the

market and there is no data supporting

that that is going to happen anytime

soon

and so long story short

we have a resilient Market just on so

many levels to see those home prices

bounce back and to have a median

increase that that 2.7 year-on-year

increase is the second highest that

we've had all year the highest that we

had was January which had a 6.5 percent

you're on your increase

and so that's pretty crazy I I think

that that means that we're going to be

continuing to to see prices go up

marginally I did say last last

time that we talked about I believe it

was last time we talked about this I

said that I think we will have a few

negative prints as we go against some of

these higher months from last year and

so that's why I was a little bit

surprised that that we had this increase

June

I wouldn't be surprised if when the

July numbers come out if July year on

year is a negative

but we're gonna see a little bit of

fluctuation happening this year with the

end result I believe with the 12-month

you know once we get to December I

think we'll say we'll be able to

definitively say that we saw some a

decent bit of of the median sales

price growth for the entire year

but yeah now we can officially

say that the average home in Greenville

or at least if you want to be official

the median home and green will cost 320

000 and that number appears for the time

being to to just be going up

so that's all I have for you guys today

if you have any questions about any of

that

please let me know do you guys have all

my contact information in the show notes

appreciate everyone listening please if

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again next week