Hello everyone and Welcome to another

episode of Selling Greenville your

favorite real estate podcast here in

Greenville, South Carolina, I am your host

as always Stan McCune I am a realtor

here in Greenville, you can find all of

my contact information in the show notes

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would really really appreciate that

I am recording this on August 17th

this is going to release next week we

just got The Greater Greenville

Association of Realtors Market stats for

the month of July so that's what we're

going to be going over but before we

even get into that I need to preface

with the past few days, we have seen

mortgage rates really go through the

roof they had been hovering in the

High sixes low sevens for quite some

time they'd pretty much been staying

above or right at the seven percent on

average range again this is for a

30-year fixed mortgage

today when I got up they were in the

7.3 to 7.4 range on average so that is a

big big jump so we need to really be

monitoring this because that directly

as we've spoke before that directly

impacts the housing market that will

directly impact demand seeing rates go

from seven percent to 7 0.3 or 7.35

that's a huge impact

so I want to make sure that I lay that

Foundation because I don't know you

know the with the volatility of rates I

don't know if they're going to be higher

or lower or about the same when this

records in about a week oftentimes I

record these episodes

a week or two sometimes three weeks

before I actually air them and sometimes

they're because of how volatile things

are right now it like the content almost

feels Antiquated already by the time

it's released so I hate when that

happens but sometimes it does

unfortunately and there's just kind of

nothing we can do about it

I simply have to record these when I

have time

and sometimes that means recording ahead

and sometimes that means that there's

new data by the time the recording comes

out that changes some of the things but

my gut feeling is that rates will

probably be still kind of around where

they are

there's a variety of reasons why

rates have gone up the past few weeks

not going to get into that today

but just know that we are now

entering into the slow season of real

estate combined with mortgage rates

going up to their highest level in

essentially 20 years that will for sure

have an impact on the housing market and

do I think that it's going to lead to

a dramatic you know price is going

down by 20 no we just talked about that

in the last episode, I don't see that

type of thing happening but we will

address some potential scenarios later

in this show so as I said before we are

going to be looking at

The Greater Greenville Association of

Realtors Market stats and I am going to

if you're looking on YouTube you are

able to see

the market stats that I'm sharing I'm

making sure that you can actually see

the right thing okay yes you can

screen sharing is a terrifying thing

because I've got like 500 tabs open and

I want to make sure that you're actually

looking at the right one here so

we're looking at the market stats that

were just released by The Greater

Greenville Association of Realtors

and there is some nothing too

shocking in here but some very helpful

things to consider so we're just going

to start right at the top like we

normally do where the market stats start

which is new listings new listings data

this is usually pretty accurate they

always revise these numbers

as you know as the months go on I

don't fully understand how those

revisions happen but normally these

numbers end up being revised a little

bit higher but there's only really two

numbers on the sheet that are usually

revised dramatically and new listings

isn't one of them so this is going to be

pretty accurate new listings was down

15.8 percent year on year this has been

really the story of the whole year

right this has been this is a nationwide

story that when rates went up

in kind of an unprecedented way the past

year new listings went down and so

the market responded

to the decrease in demand

as a result of mortgage rates with a

decrease in Supply and for a time

for a time back last year the supply

was decreasing faster than the demand

and so the result was that inventory

went up well that stabilized you know

at towards the end of last year and

basically since then, we've just been

kind of

having supply and demand just kind of

increasing or sorry rather decreasing at

the roughly at the same rate

and so this is what we've been

seeing is these negative year-on-year

prints of new listings which has been

pretty consistent like I said for

the past year now

we had a major major drop-off in new

listings in the second half of last year

so this is going to most likely flip

positive pretty soon right because we

had in let's see here this would

have been December of last year was the

lowest new listings that we had seen

since 2018 and so what that's going to

mean is most likely the December numbers

this year will be higher than they were

last year that was unprecedented and so

probably in the fourth quarter of this

year we'll probably see at the very

least December we'll have new listings

data that's up year on year higher than

than last year perhaps November as

well we'll just have to keep track but

bottom line is that the new listings

data has been going down pretty

consistently year on year and it was

down month on month as well so to give

you the actual numbers new listings

data for July 2023 was 1705 July of the

previous year it was 2002 25 new

listings

last month it was

1927. now we see a normal seasonal

decline that happens around this time of

year

new listings do tend to go down in July

versus June so that's not a big surprise

but again we saw your year-over-year

there's 15.8 percent fewer new listings

that came on the market for July pending

sales okay this is one of the numbers

that is frequently wrong

in this data

so we're not going to look at the July

numbers we're going to look at the June

numbers the June numbers when they

first came out it said and I've got you

guys can't see it if you're looking on

YouTube but I've got this pulled up on

on a different monitor here so

originally the June numbers when they

came out last month were 792 pending

sales that's been revised up to 1

309 pending sales and this is pretty

normal that these numbers are usually

about five to six hundred pending sales

off which completely skews this data but

long story short that was down 6.1

percent so this is what we've seen

pending sales have been down pretty

consistently but they stabilized if you

look back to the fourth quarter of last

year this is what I just said

the numbers were down in the in the 25

range and they've been really in double

digits negatives for pretty much the

entirety of this year so far it that is

going to remain true for July as well

July I predict will probably end up being

around 1400ish pending sales once they

revise this data and that will be pretty

close to what it was the year before

whatever I don't think our decline in

July year on year once we get the

revised data for pending sales is going

to be too off of what we saw last

year so if you're a realtor like I am

that's good news if you're a seller

generally speaking, that's good news if

you're a buyer not as good of a news

because that means that demand is

returning back to or or did return back

to similar levels as what it was a year

ago

that being said we're still talking

about numbers that are lower than they

were during the pandemic

so we'll keep monitoring that but for

now it my prediction is that the July

pending sales once we have the official

data in which won't be until next month

that it's basically a very similar if

not flat month year on year to July of

2022. all right closed sales this is

usually a pretty accurate number and our

closed sales were down 6.5 percent year

on year it went from 1314 in July 20

23 as opposed to

1406 in July 2022 so those closed sales

were down but if the pending sales did

what I think that they did then our

August closed sales and perhaps our

September closed sales may end up being

a lower decrease or maybe not even a a

decline at all year on year so we'll

keep track of that but the past two

months June and July 2023 have been down

in the roughly six-and-a-half percent

range year on year

and right now our 12-month median

for closed sales is down 11.5 percent

year on year so this is what we've

talked about with the market Contracting

the market has contracted by 11 and a

half percent year on year in

Greenville real estate

now as we've spoken before that

doesn't necessarily mean that prices

have collapsed and this is what we've

talked about a little bit in the past

I'm going to get into that a little

bit more later but for now just know

that just because the market has con

has contracted doesn't necessarily mean

that prices go down that being said we

do have to obviously keep monitoring

prices days on Market until sale we saw

a 100 increase year on year that doesn't

really mean a whole lot because last

year July 2022 was 19 days on Market

until sale that's one of the lowest

numbers we've ever had so it's 38 day

days I'll Market until sale right now

that is

still historically very very low very

very low number and that is just

indicative even more of the

impact that demand is having in

this market that we have had a

stabilization effect We've now had

two straight months in the high 30s days

on Market until sale in fact this is a

decrease from last month last month was

39 days on Market until sale this month

is 38. we have now had five straight

months or I guess four straight months

of declines and days on Market until

sale since it peaked at 58 in March

of this year

and so so that's very interesting

it's still very much this is one of the

metrics that we assess whether it's a

buyer's market or a seller's market if

if we're in the 38 days on Market until

sale range that is very very much still

a sours market now I would not be

surprised if we see this number really

balloon during the winter months as we

enter that seasonal slowdown we'll just

have to watch and see would not be

surprised if it hops back up into

the 50s like it was back in

February, March, and April

all right let's talk about prices median

sales price was exactly the same in July

of 2023 as it was in June of 2023 right

there at 320 000.

now that's still the highest number

we've ever had that being said in

comparison to July of 2022 it's not up

that much July 2022 it was up to 317

390. so we increased year on year by

point eight percent when we when we hit

that 320 000 number in July now

I have said in previous episodes that I

thought perhaps we would see some a few

negative prints this summer going

into the fall season year on year in

terms of the median sales price because

we had hit those High numbers last

summer as people were rushing to get in

on those low interest rates

it's very interesting to me that we did

not see that for the month of July

July was the month that I had kind of

circled as the month that I really

thought we would see in addition to

May of this year that we would really

see a negative year-on-year sales price

number and we didn't and and so

there's a very good chance that we don't

see any more negatives for the rest of

this year

but again year on year but we are

entering the normal seasonal decline if

you're looking at the chart

that I have on YouTube you can see that

there's always a peak during the summer

and then a decline now what typically

happens is the decline is about five to

ten percent off of the summer Peak and

then usually it ends the year higher

than what the year started okay so that

is what we talk about when we talk about

real estate appreciation we're not

really talking about month-on-month

because there are some months that are

down versus others but what we're

talking about is year on year so right

now the 12-month median is up 5.8

percent

if you go back a year

but in terms of Simply comparing July

2023 versus July 2022 is only up 0.8

percent I hope that makes sense

but we could very so I've been

predicting that we even see a moderate

once we get to the end of this

year that the 12-month that the

year on year basically for December

compared to December of last year will

be up very very slightly so December of

last year was at 295 000.

so I said I already said that we

typically see prices basically the

the median sales price usually ends up

five to ten percent lower than its

summer Peak by the time you get to the

end of the year so it's that if it's at

the five percent range then we'll end up

you know basically a little bit above

that 295 000 but if we see it more

closer to that 10 range we could very

well end up essentially having a

negative year on your number for

the median sales price in other words we

could see sales the median sales

price have a you're on your decline once

it's all said and done

now that's a little bit of a simplistic

way to look at it because

just arbitrarily picking the month of

December and deciding okay we're gonna

base everything off of this that's not

really the right way to do it is more

accurate to take the 12-month median so

so to look at all all 12 months and then

say okay what has been happening

consistently but that being said if we

so we've essentially been really

flirting with with prices staying

flat now for several months in a row for

six months in a row so February prices

were only up 0.1 percent in March 1.7

percent in April 1.6 and then in may

remember we had that negative 0.6 so

we had a slight year-on-year decline for

the month of May then in June it hopped

back up to 2.7 year-on-year increase and

then July point eight percent

year-on-year increase but guess what

these rates going up being in close to

the mid-sevens it's going to have an

impact now we're going to be comparing

again favorably year on year to last

year when those rates really started to

get crazy so I it's it's really gonna be

interesting to see

I nobody really anticipated

mortgage rates going up to where they

are right now so this caught everyone

pretty much by surprise a lot of major

in investors that put out forecasts

thought that rates would end the

year in the sixes that seems almost

impossible at this point oh and by

sixes I don't mean like high six I mean

like mid 60s it's not impossible that

rates could end up you know maybe in the

high sixes by the end of the year

but it seems more and more likely

that we're gonna just kind of be in the

seven percent mortgage rate environment

for the next several months at the very

least

it just seems unlikely to that's

going to change anytime soon at this

point

and so we have to see how the market

responds to that

from what I've been seeing the market

is still pretty strong

but again when people all of a

sudden just overnight have a jolt have a

complete shock in their purchasing power

that causes people to decide to drop out

of the market people that were already

stretched thin at seven percent now that

they're at seven point three-five

percent if that holds

you're gonna see less demand and so

there will be a big question here about

whether the lower demand ends up

causing prices to decrease in a more

than seasonal way in terms of how we

track this so this will be very

interesting

I my hunch is that we will still

end up when it comes to the end of the

year-end up being in the high 290s or

low 300s

but all bets are off right now

because this mortgage environment is

so crazy the average sales price was up

5.7 percent year on year we don't look

at this super closely because the median

is a better way of looking at things

than the average but for those that are

interested the average was basically

flat from last month at 383 154 but that

was a 5.7 percent year-on-year increase

from July of last year which was at 362

000 and change

so that 383 number that's a slight

decrease from last month

technically which is 383 912 but we've

been hovering in the low 380s now for

three months in a row which are all near

the highs for what we've had in

Greenville on average that's a testament

to the fact that more expensive homes

are being sold and and dragging that

number substantially higher than the

median at this point

the percent of list price received this

is also a very good metric of what's

happening in the Market at what

percentage of the price that a seller

has a house listed at are they actually

getting when the when the home closes

this does not take into account sour

concessions so we we can't factor in

okay how many closing costs did the

seller pay for the buyer

so that's that's an important detail

and that's particularly important

when we're comparing to last year

because last year until the second half

of the Year sellers weren't paying any

buyer closer closing costs and that

really changed towards the second half

of last year

so we have a 1.9 decrease year on year

when it was over 100 last July 100.7

percent and now it's down to 98.8

percent this July so what that means

is a few different things first off it's

greater than 1.9 because like I already

said last July sellers were not paying

buyer closing costs at all now it's more

common particularly for a home that's

been on the market for a week or two for

sellers to have to pay for some realtor

closing for some rather buyer closing

costs

and so that's something to keep in mind

this number has really changed even

more dramatically than the data would

would indicate because the Greenville

data does not take into account sour

concessions

but what's more interesting to me is

to track the month-on-month data because

we had seen four consecutive months

really five consecutive months rather of

increases in this so it it had gone all

the way down to

97.8 percent in terms of the percent

of list price received back in

January February of this year and so

that was the lowest number that we had

had in quite some time but that compared

very favorably to pre-pandemic Norms

pre-pandemic Norms was around 98

this month of July was the first

decrease in this number that we've had

basically since let's see here

since January of earlier this year so

I think what we're going to see is this

number probably as the market

experiences the seasonal cooldown we're

going to see this number get lower and

lower so sellers just need to be

prepared you're typically not going

to see a full price offer in this

environment you can expect to see an

offer that is at the moment roughly one

and a half times below what you have a

home listed for if it's listed for the

right price okay

if it's not listed for the for the right

price if you've overpriced your home

then you're going to see an even

lower number if you've underpriced your

home then then at that point you

might see offers that are above at or

above list price that's what you can

expect in this environment

and and unlike I should mention unlike

the environment the past few years if

you've overpriced your home you can't

just wait it out and and think okay in

two months

the market is going to catch up

to this price point no there's no

guarantee of that because prices as

we've talked about have only been

appreciated appreciating by half a

percent to a percent and a half per

year year on year

and so we're not seeing what we

were seeing before which was 20

increases year on year for quite

a while so people could over price their

home and within a couple of months the

market had already caught up to to what

that home is worth that's just not

happening anymore so you have to

approach this Market differently and

those that that don't that still have

the mindset of you know 2020 through mid

the middle of 2022 if you're still

taking that mindset with you you're

going to get left behind you're gonna

not be able to sell your home so you

need to keep that in mind

housing affordability index was

down 16 year on year but it was it

stayed flat at 84. this number if

mortgage rates hold this number is going

to go down housing is because is much

less affordable

and so we really want this

number to be as close to 100 as possible

100 means that the median household

can afford the median priced home so

with it being at 84 that's that just

means housing affordability is not great

in this area and this number is really

being impacted by mortgage rates right

now because that number factors in

mortgage rates

inventory of homes for sale this

number is always a little bit High

when it comes in and then they revise it

so for comparison when we looked at

this number June

of this year so we looked at June last

month and it was it came in at

3774. they revised that down to 3205 so

that's a that's a big difference that's

a over 500 home difference and so

so we need to keep that in mind so

with that in mind July's inventory of

homes for sale was

3676. so that's probably about 500 homes

too high so it's probably pretty close

to last month which was revised to

3205. we're probably right in that 3200

range and we have been kind of hovering

in the you know basically all year in

the low 3000s to high 2000s in terms of

inventory so at the moment that seems

for the month of July like it's it's

about what it had been for at least

the month of June

maybe slightly lower than the month of

June

but July 2022 it was at 2929 so I do

think it's going to be year-on-year

higher than that but what we're going to

see is the amount of of increase year

on year is going to be substantially

lower than what it had been for for a

while and eventually I I do think that

we're going to see some negative prints

we will see inventory end up in the

negatives I think at some point once we

start comparing to some of those

higher inventory months that we

experienced in the fourth quarter of

last year we'll have to keep an eye on

that because again these mortgage rates

going up higher might impact things I do

think that we're going to see inventory

start to accumulate a little bit as we

go into the slow season but I mean we're

comparing against historical lows that's

not necessary I mean we need that in

this market but that doesn't mean oh

there's going to be a a lot of homes for

sale that's not what I'm saying there's

still it's still going to be a really

tight a really constrained Market

month supply of inventory this is always

I I say this every every year the the or

every month the most recent month is

always off they said July was three

months of inventory that's that's not

going to be correct because basically

they're dividing the average monthly

pending sales from the inventory of

homes for sale and I just said that the

inventory of homes for sale and the

pending sales are both off every

every single month for the most recent

months so we have to look back at

at June

and so originally when they came out

with the June numbers they thought it

was 3.1 months of Supply they revised

that down to 2.5 months of Supply which

is an increase year over year but still

very very low

really for buyers to really feel like the

month's Supply is that they have

options I think we'd really need to see

this number get into the four and a half

range so I believe it's still going to

be once they revised July I believe it's

it's still going to be in the mid twos

at the end of the day so month supply of

inventory

we for buyers to feel better we need

this number to almost double from the

from the levels that it's at currently

yeah and and so so here we are we're

basically at the end I'm not going to

get into all of the other all of the

other numbers because we've already

taken long enough with this show

there are more things I could get

into the Weeds on on two bedroom

properties versus three bedrooms all

sorts of different things like that but

I think the long story short

and the tldr too long didn't

read version of this podcast is that

we've still seen demand stabilize we're

still seeing prices pretty much stable

everything is stable but the environment

currently in mid-august is not stable

and I think that that's going to be

reflected in some of this data going

forward because we're entering this

period of instability

into the seasonal slowdown that very

same thing happened last year

at this time and what happened last

year when that happened is that demand

really plummeted

price appreciation really plummeted

and we we just saw and then new

listings data really plummeted so we saw

everything go down and I I think there's

a very good chance that we end up

with that continuing to happen just

because of mortgage rates being where

they are now that being said experienced

realtors that I'm talking to and myself

were all staying pretty busy

and what that anecdotally tells me is

that again everything has kind of

stabilized for those that are

active in this market for those that are

now at the point where they've just kind

of come to grips with the fact that

seven percent these rates are just going

to be here for the foreseeable future

what are you gonna do are you going to

not move are you going to continue to

rent

you really don't have any choices

and what I'm what I'm telling people is

we're we're seeing these median prices

and I'm going to pull up that median

sales price graph back up here

we're seeing we're in an environment

where where median prices are not going

up to the extent that they had been in

years past and what I said before I will

say again that's because of mortgage

rates being where they are and when

rates come down we're going to see those

prices Skyrocket start to to Skyrocket

back up again I truly believe that and

so even though it's not a very

affordable market right now

it's if you're a buyer in this market

this may be your best opportunity

we'll be going into the second half of

this year to purchase before you know

if we see rate decreases at some point

next year

I think that the market could really

go crazy and people could you know start

to start to lose their minds again

in terms of you know everyone trying

to buy all at the same time because we

got all this pent up demand that is

accruing as people get priced out of the

market once they get priced back in it's

going to get crazy again

so just keep that in mind

if you're a buyer and you haven't

been priced out yet

don't give up just because the the

the the price just seems too high on a

monthly basis from what you're willing

to stomach if you can't afford it I

think that you'll be better off going

ahead and and purchasing now while the

rates of appreciation are the lowest

they've been in a while versus waiting

until rates come down and then we see

all these buyers jump back into the

market and then you find yourself

competing with them and in multiple

multiple offer situations and now you

know maybe the rate is lower but now

you're having to spend a lot more on the

house versus you could have bought the

house now and then when when rates go

down in theory refinance at that

point

so those are just some things to

consider nothing is guaranteed there's

no guarantee that rates are going to go

down next year or the year after or

anything like that we've talked about

that before

but it's good to to plan ahead

and obviously we will be tracking all of

this data as we enter the fall months

and the winter months of this year to

see what is happening so you can stay

stay on the front lines of everything

here in the Greenville market so I

appreciate you guys listening or

watching please like review subscribe

rate all of those things whatever

platform you're watching or listening on

if you need to reach out to me for

any of your real estate needs my contact

information is in the show notes I

appreciate you guys and we'll talk

again next time