Hello everyone and Welcome to another

episode of Selling Greenville your

favorite real estate podcast here in

Greenville, South Carolina, I'm your host

as always Stan Mccune realtor right here

in the Greenville area you can find all

my contact information in the show notes

if you want to reach out to me for any

of your real estate needs in the

Greenville, Spartanburg, Anderson, Pickens, Oconee

whatever you want to call it the upstate

of South Carolina I'm your realtor

please let me know and just a reminder

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things would be greatly appreciated the

greater Greenville Association of

Realtors they produce their Market stats

it's always about three weeks late

two to three weeks late

it at least delayed for the

previous month so they've released

August Market stats actually right when

I was recording the episode for last

week so unfortunately we're basically at

the end of September and just now

looking at the numbers for August but

I know that a lot of my listeners are

really big into seeing the numbers that

that the Greater Greenville

Association publishes every month so I

want to go ahead and show you guys these

numbers and talk through them and so if

you're watching or if you're just

listening and you want to actually see

graphs charts all all of those things

you can hop onto YouTube search for

selling Greenville podcast or Stan

McEwen McCune you'll be able to find

this episode on YouTube and you can

actually see the data that I'm talking

through

but for those of you that are just

going to listen you'll be able to hear

everything you'll be able to just not

see the data but you can kind of

visualize it based on what I'm saying so

we're just going to just go through this

like we do every month and I'll give

some thoughts towards the end and kind

of throughout as well and we're just

going to start right at the very top

with new listings data new listings

for the month of August was actually

pretty high I was actually pretty

surprised we had 1900 new listings for

the month of August that was still a

decline over over last year

so looking at you're on your data that's

a 4.3 decline versus August of 2022

which was almost 2000 new listings but

1900 new listings in this economy

to use that cliche phrase but I'm

actually surprised and we're seeing

actually pretty strong new listing data

in comparison to the time of year even I

think for the month of September I think

the new listings data will be

interesting as well because there's

more new listings coming on the market

than honestly than I expected there to

be and if you're looking at the chart

that I have here you can see that the

that the data is kind of weird it's kind

of like bouncing all around we

normally have a very distinct Peak and

then a very distinct decline those are

seasonal but what we're experiencing

is the new listings data is kind of

bouncing around we had March well if

we go back to February February we had

1500 new listings in the March 19 156 so

it went way up in March that was when

things were crazy this year then April

went back down to 1735 then may it

bounced back up to 1890. June was 1932

then July bounced back down to

1715. August bounced back up to 1900. so

what I think that this is indicative of

is I think the sellers just don't really

know what to do right people that are

needing to move

and needing to sell real estate

they're they're just kind of like

do I sell do I not and there's all of

this confusion in the market right now

because what exactly is the market doing

nobody nobody really knows how to

prognosticate moving forward what's

going to happen

and so I think we have sellers that are

kind of indecisive trying to decide what

they want to do

and really a lot of you see a lot of

these Twitter and social media Doomer

saying sell right now and

cynically I think that they're trying to

tank the market because that's what the

doomers want to see they're dying to see

the market tank

and so they want to see all these new

houses come on the market to tank the

market

but I have to wonder how many people

are like listening to that and are like

okay I need to sell now before things

get really bad

I don't know but the data for the new

listings came in stronger for August

than I expected and I would not be

surprised if the new listings data for

September which we won't get

until the middle of October I'm not I

won't be surprised if those numbers

are pretty strong as well September of

last year was 1921 new listings

so that was a a big big month of

September last year so we'll see if that

continues if we see something similar

this September

pending sales

tell you guys this every single time

we go through this pending sales for the

most recent month which right now is

August is always wrong it's always way

way low usually 400 to 500 pending sales

to low so we're not even gonna really

look at August it says there were 851

pending sales it was probably closer to

1250 or maybe even 1300 pending sales

regardless what we can what I can say

confidently is that it's still in a

year-on-year decline we've seen

year-on-year declines and pending sales

for every month for a long time with the

exception of April of this past year

April was the only month that had a

positive pending sales print

and even that was barely positive it was

only 0.2 percent versus April of last

year we this is what we've been talking

about we've been saying real estate has

been in recession I've said this

multiple times we have had a real estate

recession since last summer that is

the case now you could maybe make an

argument that we're out of the real

estate recession I don't think so in my

personal opinion I think that we're

still in a real estate recession

for a variety of reasons and this

pending sales pending sales numbers I

think are going to continue to post some

negative prints until probably well we

might be pretty close to seeing

things no longer be negative because

once we start comparing the year-on-year

data to quarter four of last year

quarter four of last year was super slow

I think there's a possibility we have

some positive pending sales prints

perhaps in November and December when

things went really really low like the

lowest that we've seen since 2018. so

we'll have to keep track of that but

don't going back to July since like I

said we we

don't know what August is actually going

to end up being but we can look at July

July was a 14.1 percent decrease now one

thing I've noticed is that these numbers

continue to be revised so this

pending sales number like if we look six

months from now this July number will

probably be like 1250 or something like

that so it's probably a little bit less

than a 14 decline or decrease year on

year but still a decrease year on Year

from July of 2022 which was 1400 pending

sales

we'll have to keep track of that

obviously this is a major major

indicator of demand and so as long as

demand is still showing negatives that's

still not a good thing if you're a

seller if you're a buyer

it's kind of a positive right there's

not a whole lot of positives for it if

you're buying or selling right now this

is this is like the worst Market just in

general for anyone doing real estate

because there's not a lot of homes for

sale for buyers and for sellers even

though it's still a seller's market it's

not a hot sellers Market it's just a

weird seller's market where I you

know only a handful of homes are selling

right away and a lot of them are just

kind of lingering on the market

so that's kind of where things are in

my opinion stated things right now

closed sales for the month of August

this number is usually pretty accurate

we had a decrease of 8.9 percent

basically a nine percent decrease

year over year and but it was a

month-over-month increase which is not

that uncommon we've talked about this

before

oftentimes there's a little bit of a

bump in August as people are trying to

to get in you know their moves before

the end of the year

so I'm not super surprised that we saw a

an increase from the 1

319 close sales in July to 1425 in

August of this year

but year on year which to me is the

more important number that is a nine

percent decrease which is the largest

that we've had since April

so again not a from a demand

perspective demand has softened these

mortgage rates being as high as they are

which as I'm recording this mortgage

rates are are right around seven and a

half percent seven point four seven and

a half depending on where you're looking

and that's having a real impact on

demand hasn't crashed Demand yet but it

has had a negative impact on demand

here's another indicator that day's on

Market until sales softening Market

we're now back up to 41 days on Market

we had dipped into the high 30s in June

and July but now we're back into the 40s

what does that mean with that means is

that typically around 50 to 60 days on

Market until sale that's kind of the

traditional metric that we've used to

see if this is somewhat comparable to

pre-pandemic Norms but I've said before

some of these inventory numbers and days

on market number like if we saw 60 days

on Market until sale in the environment

that we're currently in that would feel

like a buyer's market so things are a

little bit different now than they were

pre-pandemic so I think if we started to

approach 50 days on Market until sale

I think and and if we exceeded that

in some way I think that it would feel

really really slow because that's

exactly what happened earlier this

year when we were in February March

and April we we saw those days on Market

numbers go up and then they came back

down because the market got hotter

again but if we saw the days on

market number go back into the 50s and

particularly if it went back into the

60s I think it would really start to

feel a lot slower than it did

pre-pandemic

median sales price this is probably

the one that people are most interested

in this kind of loosely tells tells you

what is happening with the market is the

market appreciating or depreciating

we have had one negative print and

that was May of this past year which had

a year on year decline of 0.6 I never

know if it's decline or decrease we'll

say decrease year on year of 0.6 but

August had a an increase of 0.8 percent

year on year the August median sales

price if people ask you what is the

average home selling for in Greenville

well in August that number was 312 690

as and that's a very minor increase from

August of 2022 which was 310

195. here's what I'm telling people if

they're asking me what's happening in

the market right now I'm telling people

that the market is basically flat year

on year right we're seeing very very

moderate appreciation

these appreciation numbers are

comparable to some months pre-pandemic

but it's kind of more or less flat right

now we're seeing things be pretty

comparable to what they were a year ago

so sellers expecting that their home has

gone up substantially in value from last

year need a little bit of a reality

check the market simply hasn't done that

in most instances now this is metadata

right we're looking at basically the

entire Upstate with these Greenville

numbers including Spartanburg Anderson

Pickens a lot of other counties that use

the Greenville MLS

so

it's Case by case just because

one house sold for you know ten percent

more than what it sold for a year ago or

what its neighborhood was selling for a

year ago that doesn't mean that every

or just because someone let's say

that one neighborhood is clearly

showing that prices haven't gone up

versus last year that's not necessarily

indicative of every neighborhood some

neighborhoods might be seeing price

declines some neighborhoods might be

seeing prices go up some might be flat

all of this comes in with basically a

very very slight year-on-year increase

so this is why Realtors still have a job

even though a lot of people a lot of

technology is trying to put us out of

out of business you can't use you can't

base anything off of directly off this

point eight percent increase number

except for the fact that on a general

level we are seeing a very modest

appreciation in the Greenville market

now

what we talked about before I'm very

interested to see how far down this goes

because price me the median sales price

is a seasonal number you can see again

if you're looking on YouTube you can see

every year it peaks in the summer and

then comes back down with the exception

of of the past well not even the past

three years with the exception of 2021

and 2020 those two years were just

anomalies for a variety of reasons we've

talked about that ad nauseam but the

median sales price is going to come down

it peaked at 320 we had two months at 3

20 June and July now it's at 312. this

is normal the question is is it going to

go dip back down below 300 or not that

is the most interesting thing I think

it's very possible that it could

and if it does then then the question

becomes is it going to drop below the

December number of last year which was

295 000.

at the moment with it dropping down

to 312 I'm thinking that it will

probably stay above that 295 000 number

which if it does then we'll be able to

say that 2023 showed a mod you know

again modest appreciation year on year

but there's no guarantees there's a

lot of uncertainty right now

particularly with mortgage rates being

where they are and just everything

that comes that comes with that

so obviously we will continue to track

this I would expect this number to keep

going down now last year we saw a big

big decrease from September which is 315

000 to October and I believe if I'm not

mistaken I think that September of last

year was up month on month versus August

of last year I'd have to go back and

look at that but August of last year was

an interesting month because mortgage

rates actually went down and that

spurred just a little bit of activity

and maybe pushed that that September

median sales price up we'll see we will

just have to see all that I'm saying is

from what I am seeing boots on the

ground I'd be very surprised if the

September number is higher than this 312

number that we're seeing for August

we're seeing a lot of homes in the

Simpsonville market for instance being

listed around the 250 260 price range

which was exactly what they were selling

for last year

except last year they were selling

right away now they're lingering on the

market

and so these are some of the things

that we're seeing different now in this

softer Market than what we have seen in

the past

average sales price we don't spend a

whole lot of time looking at the average

sales price because this really is

wildly impacted by expensive homes

and so I don't spend a whole lot of

time but if you're interested the

average sales price was 378

789 and that is a 2.2 percent increase

year over year as as opposed to

August of 2022.

not going to spend much time on that

percent of list price received

okay we talk about this a lot this is a

percentage found when dividing a

property sales price by its most recent

list price this does not take into

account price drops right if you

dropped your price if if you have a home

that's dropped this price five times and

then goes under contract the percent of

list price received is based on the most

recent list price after those five price

drops

and so it's the percentage found with

dividing a property sales price bias

most recent list price then taking the

average for all properties sold in a

given month not accounting for seller

concessions, okay so,

I've explained this before I'm not going

to go into a whole lot of detail beyond

what I just did but the percent of list

price received was 98.7 percent

this is still a little bit higher

than what we would normally see you

know in in past markets even though it

was a 0.9

year-over-year decrease so normally

we would expect it to be you know in

normal times between 97 and 98 still at

98.7 percent

sellers are still those that are

selling are still getting pretty close

to what they have their home listed for

but again there are a lot of price drops

happening right now the way the the

market is right now

and so what this tells me is that

sellers are willing to drop their prices

more so than they're willing to accept a

a an offer that is way below what their

home is listed for so that's something

to keep in mind right you're if you're

if you are interested in a home but you

feel like it's overpriced

I'm not saying that your best strategy

is to wait until they drop the price but

if you try to put in an offer that's

well below what it's listed for odds are

it's not going to be accepted odds are

you're going to have to wait it out and

wait for them to drop the price a little

bit and then come in with with a an

offer that is you know within two

percent of what they have the home

listed for

housing affordability index

this is the index that measures

housing affordability for the region I'm

just going to read this straight off the

gjr's booklet here for example an

index of 120 means the median household

income is 120 of what is necessary to

qualify for the median priced home under

prevailing interest rates a higher

number means greater affordability so we

saw August month on month go up right

June and July we're at 84.

August turn rounded the corner a

little bit went up to 86 that's still a

big decrease from a year ago which was

101.

and anything below 100 is bad right

because that means that the average

family can't afford the average home

but if we see so because mortgage

rates have gone up since since this

we're probably going to see September's

housing affordability drop back down to

84 83 82 who knows

but if mortgage rates start to come

down again we'll probably see this

number swing back up again I don't see

mortgage rates coming down substantially

before the end of the year just based

on what things are looking right now

but there's a possibility if that

happens somewhere in the future we could

see this housing affordability index

number Skyrocket because it's taking

into account those mortgage rates

so we'll have to keep track of it on

on the flip side if mortgage rates keep

going up this number is going to to keep

going down the fact that it went up a

little bit even though prices went up a

little bit

that has more to do with the fact

that there was a month-on-month decrease

in prices right so what I look at to

kind of measure what the economy is

doing is the year on year numbers

because that kind of accounts for

seasonality but this housing

affordability index doesn't account for

seasonality and so it's going back up

because housing becomes more affordable

during the third and fourth quarters

of the year because not there's not

as much demand in comparison to the

supply so that's all that's happening

there but again I think September we

will probably see it probably go back

down a little bit just because of

mortgage rates going up a little bit

inventory of homes for sale this is

another one that is frequently

inaccurate for the most recent month

so August it said 3 800

homes for sale

for the month of August I don't think

that's right

even if it was that would still be a

little bit below kind of what we would

normally expect for for this time of

year

but regardless I don't think that when

they revise this next month I don't

think we'll be anywhere near that

what we have seen is a basically a

gradual increase since the the spring

season so since the normal busy busiest

months of the year April which was 2

900 homes for sale we've seen that go up

every single month since then May was

2962. June was 3156 July was 3254 and

August is fill in the blank we're not

sure yet but I'm pretty sure it's going

to be higher than that July number just

not as high as this 3 800 number maybe

around

we might see 3 400 something like

that

and I can tell you just from what I'm

seeing inventory is going to keep going

up September we definitely have more

inventory than we had in August

but unfortunately it still doesn't

feel like it there's more options for

buyers but it doesn't feel like there's

a whole lot of more options for buyer

sellers are still being really stubborn

in terms of like I already said

sellers are don't want to accept

lowball offers right even if they have

raised their price even if their price

is way above what it should be given the

the current market sellers are still

really holding out and hey I don't blame

them if you don't need to sell then hold

out but sometimes you need a little bit

of a dose of reality

and these inventory numbers as long

as these sellers keep holding out we're

going to keep seeing these numbers go up

so there's going to be more options for

buyers but that doesn't necessarily mean

more deals unless sellers start caving

here's an interesting little side note

so one thing that is a big argument

between

the doomers that think the the housing

market is going to crash and the rest of

us that look at data is what is going to

happen with all of these people that

need to that become forced sellers in

the market right when markets shift

people become for sellers people become

forced sellers when they need to accept

a job in a different location

people become for sellers when they have

to move next to you know move towards a

relative that is in bad Health

grandparent parent whatever or when that

parent needs to move to their children

all these different things can force

someone to be a seller

but that doesn't necessarily mean that

it's going to bring enough demand to

actually bring prices down or sorry

enough Supply rather to bring prices

down and so this is the debate we have a

lot of doomers out there that are like

there's going to be a bunch of four

Sellers and they're gonna this is gonna

bring prices right down way down well

traditionally it takes foreclosures

with those four sellers in order to

actually see meaningful price decreases

and what we're seeing I'm starting to

see a lot more of these four sellers

that you know so in 2020 2021 and

somewhat in 2022 we saw people selling

homes that they had just bought like six

to eight months earlier because their

home had appreciated so much but as

we've talked about that hasn't happened

in the current environment right we

haven't seen that kind of appreciation

the market is relatively flat again

depends on the neighborhood depends on a

lot of different things

but we're St I'm starting to see some

of these people that bought in 2022 now

selling their home in 2023 and what

we're seeing over and what or at least

what I'm seeing here in the Greenville

Market over and over again is that those

sellers are still coming out on top

they're still able to sell without

having to

take a loss and they've got so much

Equity even if they took a loss it's

okay I've talked to I've talked to some

of these sellers that are just like you

know what

I overpaid in 2022 I know I recognize it

now

it's but I I just need to sell it's

fine if I don't get full price it's okay

or if I don't get what I paid for it

last time around after you know all the

the repairs and whatnot have to do it's

fine it is what it is that's very

different than what we had in other

markets when the when we saw

you know demands start to Sky start

to plummet and Supply start to go up

was sellers not being able to do that

they didn't have enough equity in their

homes and so what ended up happening is

then they went behind on mortgage

payments and then foreclosures happened

and all of that

so the inventory that we're seeing

going up we're not we're still not

really seeing foreclosures and so that's

something we'll have to keep track of

everyone still has enough equity in

their home that even if they have to

sell it for less than what they bought

it for which again I'm not even really

seeing that happening although I'm

hearing people say it that it may need

to happen for them and they're okay with

that

people aren't in situations where

where they're at a an equity position in

their home that that they may just

have to give it back to the bank not

seeing that

and so until that happens

these inventory numbers will impact

the the prices I don't want to say that

inventory going up

won't have an impact on pricing but the

big impact would be if foreclosures

start to happen and at the moment we're

just not seeing that month supply of

inventory

August it showed 3.1 that's way too

high why because this number is dividing

two numbers

pending sales

and sorry let me just read it the

inventory of homes for sale at the end

of a given month divided by average

monthly pending sales so

I already said that the inventory

number is always off the year on year

I've also already said the pending

number is always off your always off

for the most recent month

so this number is always going to be

off

it's at 3.1 months it's probably

closer to 2.7 or 2.8 month supply of

inventory and historically speaking

that's still very very low okay once we

start getting into the fours that is

when we start to see something that

resembles a little bit more like what

we've seen in the past but again

I and I've said this over and over

again I think if we hit the fours I

think the market would be very sensitive

to that I think that things would really

really slow down because I just think

that things have changed it used to be

that in the fours that was still very

much okay this is still very much a

seller's market

I think if we hit the fours with the

level of demand that we currently have I

think that that would feel

feel like a buyer's market to a lot of

people so we'll have to keep track of

this it's still like I said even though

August shows 3.1 I believe that it's

still in the high twos once this gets

revised and July was 2.6 that's the

highest number since November of last

year

no big surprise there

I think we will continue to see this

number climb and we'll probably see it

climb into the threes at some point

sooner than later and

that's all that I'm going to go over

with this stats but I will say this I

think we're in for a pretty slow fourth

quarter just kind of in general

I think that sellers just need to be

aware of that it's just going to be a

little bit of a slog going into this

fourth quarter I think that once

Thanksgiving comes around I think that

the real estate market is probably going

to see a really slow period And if

you're a realtor listening to this be

prepared

if you're a sour listening to this be

prepared if you're a buyer

this is a great time to buy in a lot

of ways obviously mortgage rates aren't

ideal but you've got this little window

where home prices are relatively flat

once mortgage rates start to go back

down home prices are going to go up

again

but again how how long will it be

until mortgage rates go down

right now it's looking very much like

it won't be until next year and even

then we don't know if they'll go down

that much

the FED who pulls the puppet strings

on mortgage rates they didn't do

anything in terms of on their end in

terms of increasing the rates but still

the market still increase those

mortgage rates and the 10-year yield

which is one of the things that we look

at that is one of the most the

strongest indicators of whether the

third year fixed rate mortgage is going

up or down the 10-year yield is at the

highest that it's been since 2007 as I'm

recording this on September 25th

and so all of those would lead me

to believe that we're going to enter the

fourth quarter with the highest mortgage

rates that we've had in I mean basically

20 30 years and so

that would lead me to think that we're

going to see a big big slowdown I think

that buyers are going to say

let's just enjoy the holiday season and

just see what happens next year

and if the FED left the

door open that they might might increase

their Benchmark rate Benchmark rate

perhaps in October or November I

don't know if that would really

dramatically impact mortgage rates

because I think that some of that is

already priced in the market already is

is assuming that there is going to be

another fed increase before the end of

the year but it it could listen I've

I am no economics expert and in fact I

listen to a lot of them and I read a lot

of what they have to say and they have

no idea what's going to happen they're

complete everyone's grasping at straws

right now so I don't feel bad if I

too am also grasping at straws because

those that get paid you know money to

actually analyze this I don't get paid

to analyze this I only get paid when

you guys turn into clients or when your

friends turn into my clients

I'm a realtor

but those that actually just get

paid to just analyze this still have no

idea what's going on

all I'm all I'm saying is that I

think probably similar to last year

we'll probably see a slow fourth quarter

now I don't know if it will be as slow

as last year because last year was like

insanely slow because people just got

the rate the high rate shock

that happened

but I do think it will feel pretty

slow particularly with inventory kind of

creeping up so we'll just have to have

to keep track of that and and and

keep tabs on those things

but a lot of people right now are a

lot of buyers are getting discouraged

dropping out feeling like you know it's

just not worth it let's just let's just

wait it out

I would tell you if you're a buyer in

this market I've said this before you

don't need to do that because

September and October can be really

great months to buy as we've already

said if you're a seller

I'm not saying don't sell right now

if you have to sell you have to sell

but just be prepared that the market

has shifted and still a seller's market

in the technical sense of the word

but it's not the sellers Market that

people kind of got used to for a while

which was you know if you have a home

under 250 000 it's going to sell right

away unless it's a fixer-upper and even

if it is a fixer-upper if it's in the

right area it's going to sell right away

no more no more fix this Market is not

friendly to fix their upper homes this

Market is not friendly to overpriced

homes

and so be aware of that you're not

going to if if you have a fixer upper home

that you're listing you're better off

fixing it up okay you're you're you

might not get dollar for dollar back

what you put in it depends it depends on

a lot of things

but for sure if you list it as a

fixer-upper you're going to be leaving

money on the table in my opinion

and obviously that's a blanket

statement won't apply to every single

situation

but it does apply in a lot of these

situations that I'm seeing so that's a

wrap for today I appreciate you guys

listening my contact information is in

the show notes

if you need a realtor that's where

you can go reach out to me for any any

of your real estate needs or if you just

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