Hello everyone and Welcome to another

episode of Selling Greenville your

favorite real estate podcast here in

Greenville South Carolina I'm your host

as always Stan Mccune Realtor right here

in Greenville South Carolina and you can

find all of my contact information in

the show notes if you need to reach out

to me for any of your local real estate

needs just a reminder as always please

support the show by liking, reviewing,

subscribing, rating all of those things

if you're not sure how to do that

feel free to reach out to me I have

people reach out to me all the time like

hey it's not very intuitive in apple

podcast how to leave you a rating

well it's not you have to go to the show

page and you have to scroll down and

then you can leave five stars it's

really frustrating on YouTube it's

pretty straightforward if you can find

my podcast which by the way I just

realized I need to turn my phone on mute

if you find my podcast on YouTube the

simplest way to do that is to search for

selling Greenville podcast somebody

already has a Selling Greenville Channel

sadly they don't use it but if

you search Selling Greenville podcast

you can find me on YouTube it's very

simple to like or leave a comment and to

subscribe so please do that if you

get the opportunity and I've got a

lot more content coming for you guys

that I'm really excited about just

recorded another interview yesterday

actually, as I'm recording this one that

interview won't come out for a couple of

weeks but I'm very excited for

some of this content that I will be

providing for you guys here in the

future you don't want to miss it all

right today we are going to be talking

about the Greater Greenville Association

of Realtors Market stats and that is

something that I am very excited to

share with you here so if you're looking

on YouTube, you can actually see you

can actually follow along with the

graphics that I will be looking at so

these are the greater Greenville

Association stats that came out this

month October middle of

October and they're through the month

of September so we're going to do this

that we always do we always go through

this and I share my thoughts we're going

to actually talk through this data so

we're going to start right at the top

with new listings new listings were down

year on year

11.7% we had new listings come in at

1,697 that's down substantially from the

1,921 that we had in September of last

year now I want to point out a few

things here it's very very normal that

we have the pattern that we're

showing here so here's the pattern that

we had we had new listings

basically reached their seasonal high

technically it was March

but March was kind of a weird month

because we were playing catchup from the

earlier months so really we had in my

opinion the seasonal high for new

listings in June which was

1,933 and then it dropped down in July

to about 1,700 and then pop back up

in August to 1900 and then back down in

September to around 1,700 this is a

pretty normal Trend actually if you're

looking historically you'll see that

almost every year there's this little

bump that happens and usually that

little bump is the is the month of of

August actually it's people putting

their homes on the market right before

the school year all those new

listings that come in you know people go

on vacation during July July can be a

little bit of a sleepy month for Real

Estate but if you look almost every

single year and I'm not going to go

back to the pandemic years because you

know 2020 through 2022 were not

normal years for us but if you look at

other years there's always this little

bump that happens in August and then

we see things kind of tail off after

that sometimes there's another little

bump that happens in October we've seen

that in a few years so we'll see if

maybe that happens happens right now

just my read on the ground is that

probably October numbers will be pretty

similar to September numbers but we

might see a very slight bump up from the

September new listings data but right

now I've seen inventory as a

result of new listings definitely has

gone up substantially the past two

months which we'll see here in a

little bit but right now is kind of

hovering around what has been for the

past few weeks so the new listings data

has kind of it seems like it's

kind of flatlined so far where we are in

October but obviously we'll know more

once we get that trailing data next

month pending sales I always warn you

guys if you're a new listener pending

sales for the most recent month is

always inaccurate so it looks like

September is really really low you know

it's saying that September was down

42.5% year on year that is not going to

be accurate now that being said it's

for sure going to be down it'll probably

be once this data is revived it'll

probably end up being the 1100 to 1200

range September of last year was

1265 so our pending sales numbers are

still running low year on year we are

still very much in the process of

seeing the real estate correction as a

result of rates being where they are and

all of that but if we look back at

August that kind of gives us a more

accurate depiction August when we looked

at the data last month August was to

just to show you how off this this

information is August was running at 851

pending sales was what it said last

month when this data came out and then

it was revised to

1232 that's a big revision okay so

instead of being down 38% year on year

August actually ended up being down

10.9% year on year but that's still a big

number that's our biggest year on-ear

number to date we've not had a double

digit we almost did in July but we had

not had a double-digit dip in

pending sales year on year until August

happened and so again this is the

direct result of mortgage rates knocking

on the door of 8% for some people they

are 8% or higher if you're an investor

looking for financing in this market

you're going to be paying over 8% that's

just the way it is and so that's

what's happening we're

seeing active activity really drop

off right now as a result of pending

sales now that being said I'm

personally still quite busy I know a

lot of other agents that are quite busy

but this bodess what this tells me

is that the fourth quarter really

once we kind of get into the holiday

season I think we're going to see these

pending sales really drop off we did

see that happen last year as well so

it'll be interesting to see how this

year tracks in comparison to last year

if we see pending sales continue to run

lower than last year into

late into this year November December

then we're going to see a very very slow

fourth quarter and so that will

really really impact sellers if

this trend continues and it looks

like for the month of September it

probably will continue so we'll have to

keep you know once the September

numbers get revised I believe that that

will show the case probably the same

thing for October as well and but

really what will be interesting we saw

the big turn in the market last year in

November and December so it will be

interesting to see what happens in

those months closed sales close sales

for September this number usually is

accurate or at least pretty close to

being accurate also down

substantially down 10.1% year-on-year so

we saw 1,320 closed sales for the month

of September that was down from

1,468 September of 2022 again the same

trend is happening as we're

seeing when it comes to the pending

sales we've only had one positive month

all year that was the month of May and

that was May having just a lot of

closed sales because it was just playing

catchup right after the slow fourth

quarter and the slow beginning to the

first quarter of this year we had a lot

of activity in March and April and that

resulted in a lot of closed sales in May

relatively speaking not a lot

comparison to a few other years but a

lot in comparison to what we've been

seeing really the past 18 months and

so the rest of the year has just been

a down year this is why I've said

multiple times we're in a housing market

recession even if the broader economy is

perhaps not in a recession I guess

that's debatable but the housing

market is definitely and definitely has

been a recession for quite some time

and the only reason why we've seen why

it hasn't felt like a recession I've

said this before I'm going to say it

again is because the inventory data has

not caught up to pre-pandemic Trends yet

and that's something that we'll talk

about here in a second I don't want to

jump too far ahead of myself now here's

something that's interesting days on

Market until sale this is one of the key

indicators that kind of tells us like

what the market is doing whether it's

kind of going in a buyer direction or

going in a seller Direction it moved in

the month of September more in the

seller Direction and went down

again to 40 days on Market we had seen

it jump from July of 38 days on

Market until sale through August it went

up to 41 days on Market until sale but

then the month of September it went back

down to 40 now that's still an increase

year on-ear but that's because September

of 2022 we were still at those sub-30

days on Market until sale numbers which

was still historically extremely low if

you're looking at the graphic that I'm

showing you see that that it by the

end of the year it goes way up the end

of year 2022, it goes way up so we're

still showing a big increase 48% year

on year but that is likely to change big

time coming up here as we see the

October November December prints of

these numbers now I've said this

before and I'll say it again if we

reflect what last year's numbers were

and we start to see 50 60

days on Market until sale that's going

to very much feel like a buyer Market

even though traditionally speaking it

wouldn't be traditionally speaking that

would just be taking us back to normal

pre-pandemic levels but that would be

a big System Shock and that's really the

story of the market right now right it's

not so much what things are in

comparison to what they were in the past

it's more how quickly things are

flipping and how quickly the market is

changing right interest rates I hear

people say all the time well mortgage

rates historically speaking are not that

high yes correct if you look at the 20,

30, 40, 50 year numbers yeah you're right

but we've never seen mortgage rates go

up 250% in a year and so that is the

story it's not looking back at

historically what is high or low it's

looking at how quickly things have

changed that has impacted the market

because the market doesn't have time to

ad adjust right when interest rates go

up or go down slowly the market has time

to adjust but when things Skyrocket or

plummet very quickly which has been

really the story not just of the past

year the story of the past year has been

these rates going up but if you want to

go back to the P pandemic the story was

when rates plummeted that's what

impacted the market then and so this

is kind of just the story of real

estate Nationwide but also in Greenville

and so it'll be interesting to see if

the days on market Trend kind of remains

stable it's been pretty stable since

June we've been in the high 30s low

40s you could maybe make the argument

you know may was at 44 days on Market so

really going back to May so it'll be

fascinating to see if we see

days on Market until sale make the

dramatic shift into the 50s and

it almost hit 6 earlier this year so

it'll be interesting to see what happens

there my guess is that we'll probably

go at least into the high 40s low 50s in

the fourth quarter perhaps even into

January of next year but we'll have

to see the it's very unpredictable

I did not anticipate it going back down

to 40 like it did for the month of

September so we'll have to keep track of

that median sales price this is one of

everyone's favorite numbers to look at

because this kind of tells us what the

Market's doing right we had one month

where the sales price went down

year on year this year otherwise it's been a

pretty stable year we've only had one

month the entire year where we saw

the median price point go up greater

than greater than

2.7% and that was January January we saw

prices go up year-on-year 6.5% otherwise

it's been below 3% every single month

most months below 2% and with the one

month May having a decrease year-on-year

but otherwise, we've been in the

positives all year year on year in terms

of the median sales price, September was

no different September we saw prices go up

1.6% now back up to

39,900 so we've been hovering in this

like 315 to 320 is range basically since May

and that's very interesting to see

prices go up in September because we're

in the time when prices seasonally tend

to go down look at the trend

historically speaking prices this time

of year in the fourth quarter, they tend

to I guess September technically not the

fourth quarter but around this time of

year you typically see prices tail off

from their Peak. What were their Peak?

This year the peak was 320 what are we

at right now we're at 399 that's

basically 320 so we're basically right

up there at the peak for the year so

that's really really interesting

again I've said this before I

apologize for repeating myself but for

those that don't listen every single

month that are or perhaps every single

week Greenville the Greenville Market is

a very stable Market our Highs are not

as high as other markets and our lows

are not as low as other markets so this

is very interesting I've been saying

again I've been saying this for a while

to determine whether or not we're seeing

a seasonal decrease that is greater than

what we would expect I would expect to

see the median sales price plunge

into the low 390s perhaps High 380s

sorry low 290s high

280s if we saw it go into 380s 390s

that would be insane no we're talking

about 290s 280s right now we're nowhere

near that so it would take a pretty

big drop off for the median sales price

for us to end the year in the negatives

we ended let's see here December of

last year ended at 295 so for us to see

a year-on-year

decrease we need to see basically

this median sales price go into the

mid2 200s right now we're pretty far

away from that and so the market

is really continuing to remain stable

prices are continuing to remain high in

spite of mortgage rates being where they

are so that's definitely something

to keep track of the average sales price

again we don't Focus too much on this

because averages when it comes to prices

are really skewed by the upper end of

the market the median is really more

tells more accurately what the story of

the market is but if you're interested

the average sales price hit an

all-time high of

385,000 so that is a Greenville record

you can see that on the chart that

was a

6.3% increase year on-ear and the one

interesting tidbit about this is that

that's the highest increase that we've

seen since January so the luxury

housing market right now the upper end

of the market right now in Greenville is

very strong that is one of the

strongest markets and it's very

simple it's it's not rocket science it's

strong because that part of the market

is insulated from the high interest

rates right people that have a lot of

money that can afford luxury housing by

Greenville standards are not really

impacted by these high interest rates a

lot of these purchases over a million

dollars are purchased cash anyway so

it doesn't matter these averages are

going to probably continue to be strong

going into the fourth quarter I'm sure

we'll see a seasonal dip which again if

you're looking at the chart you can see

that there is always that seasonal dip

off from the high but we're not seeing

it yet we just had the highest print of

the year for the month of September

so that again these are very fascinating

things to to track this is not what

we're seeing on the national level I

think this is very important to to share

on the national level, we're seeing

prices really dive off the map so

Greenville is showing a lot more

stability than we're seeing Nationwide

good if you're selling not good if

you're buying a percent of list price

received this is basically when you've

got a house listed how much can you

expect to sell it for right if you have

a house listed for $100,000 which not

many people do are you going to get

100,000 are you going to get

98,000 whatever right now we've seen

again stability in the percent of list

price received

98.7% so if you have a listing for

$100,000 you can reasonably expect to

get $98,700

for that

listing that's not really accurate

because if you have a listing for

$100,000 you're going to get most likely

well above that CU there just aren't any

listings at that price point right now

but we're we're talking I'm I'm

oversimplifying things this number

doesn't account for seller concessions

so you do have to factor that in if the

seller is paying for buyer closing cost

that's not baked into this number so

keep that in mind as well but this is

stable we've seen basically it's

hovered in the low 99s High 98s

basically for the entire year with the

exception of the first few months of the

year 98.7% is exactly the same as

August it July was

98.8% and year on year this is just a

decrease of 1% and this is what we're

going to see we're going to see

basically we've been seeing

kind of big decreases year on year but

now we're going to start comparing

favorably to last year because by this

point last year interest rates had

started to go up into the high-fives

started to to knock on the door of sixes

and so that was when the market

really took a dive off the cliff and

so we're going to start to see some

favorable prints year on year you can see

again if you're looking at the graph

you can see that it went down into oh

boy what is this the low

the low 98s high 97s last year so if

we stay in the mid 98s we'll start to

see actually some positive year on year

prints in terms of the percent of list

price received the long story short is

that if you're a buyer in this market

you want to know okay how much can I

reasonably expect to get a seller to

come down off their listing right now on

average it's about

1.3% but that varies greatly that's the

average right if a home has been on the

market for months you're going to get

more than that if a home has just come

on the market you're probably not going

to get much if any of the price to

come down so these are averages and

that's something to keep in mind housing

affordability index this basically

tells us how much the median household

can afford if we're at 100 then that

means the median household can afford

the median-priced home we're at 84

not a great number that is a decrease

8.7% from a year ago when it was at 92

and again this number is taking

to affect the average price it's taking

to affect average mortgage rates and

it's taken to affect median

income and I probably should have said

median for all of those things not

average median price median mortgage

rates median income and so it's at 84

not a particularly affordable market

right now this is why housing

affordability is a big talk Talking

Point right now even among politicians

that don't really understand how to

bring about affordable housing they're

still talking about it because they

understand that people are impacted

by it but again even the people impacted

by it they want to a lot of them want to

stop building and all of that you do

that this number is just going to keep

going down so it'll be interesting to

see again as we go into the slow

part of the year we might see this

number jump back up a little bit

historically speaking it would typically

jump back up in the winter months and

the reason for that being is that things

just slowed down prices PE sellers

typically can't sell their home for as

much as they would in the winter months

it's just a slower Market in general

but if mortgage rates climb into the

eights which right now as I'm recording

this we've seen the 10-year yield hit

a new high

I'm recording this October 17th

the 10-year yield is kind of what we

look at that's a good predictor of what

mortgage rates the 30-year U mortgage

rates will

do and so if the 10year yield hits 5%

most likely mortgage rates will hit 8%

and at the moment it's looking like

there's a very good chance that might

happen the FED has done everything they

can they I they are finally finally the

Federal Reserve is getting nervous

about what's happening when it comes to

these rates and for the first

time in a long time we've had multiple

of the hawkish fed presidents and

governors come out with statements

saying hey I think we've done enough

and this is the first time in a while

now what we haven't heard them say

anything about rate decreases what we're

hearing them say right now and this

is the first step for us to prior to

them to start to say okay we're going to

decrease rates is for them to say okay

we've done enough we're going to hold

the line for now but they're

intentionally everything they say is

hyperanalyzed by the market and so and

they know this they know they can

manipulate the market by simply making

statements and so they've been pretty

unified by saying by going from a

hawkish hey we might need to make more

rate hikes or at least one more rate

hike this year that's what they had been

saying up until just recently they

started basically in unison saying okay

I think we've done enough and that's

because they're looking at numbers

like the 10-year yield and saying

okay this is really really high and

this could really have a negative impact

on the economy as a whole and so they

they've come out with more doish

statements lately that it seemed to

help last week if I were recorded

this last week I would have been like

okay you know we've seen the the 10-year

yield come down a little bit we've seen

the 30-year fixed rate mortgage come

down a little bit unfortunately it

went right back up and now we're seeing

that there is the possibility those

average mortgage rates could

end up going over 8% for the first time

in a very long time so we'll see what

happens there and what the FED

tries to do I don't think that they're

going to decrease

rates but they might make some more

statements trying to get the market

to to change a little bit and become

you know a little bit more

friendly when it comes to these rates

we'll see that that'll be something to

keep track of inventory of homes for

sale this is another one where the

most recent month the month of September

is not going to be accurate if I look

at I've got on another screen here that

you guys can't see I can look at what

August when these stats came out

last month August was listed at 3812

and then that was revised back down to

33 98 so about

400 homes for sale high so most

likely same thing for September most

likely September is closer to about

3500 which would be a little bit

of an increase year on Year from

September of last year which was

3453 the month of August was up

inventory was up 6.6% year on year I do

think that that Trend will continue

continue I've seen inventory continue to

go up but like I said the past couple of

weeks it seems like it's kind of

stabilized so we'll see what happens

if new listings data falls in the in

the next few weeks in the next few

months then inventory will end up

stabilizing perhaps in the mid 3000s

historically speaking that is below the

pre-pandemic norm which was around 4,000

homes for sale if we ended up coming

around 4,000 homes for sale that would

be really good news for buyers in

generally speaking

it's tough because right because it

doesn't necessarily mean that there's

good inventory for sale it just means

that there's inventory for sale there's

a lot of bad inventory right now I've

seen it I've shown it particularly in

the lower price points if you're below

300,000 a lot of bad inventory out there

a lot of homes that are for sale that

still need work and so this number is

a little bit

deceiving but basically we've seen

inventory continue to go up we we've not

yet seen a month in which inventory has

been down year on year and I believe

that's going to continue for September

now what'll be interesting is whether

that continues into October November

December because we did have in

well it looks like actually our Peak now

that I'm looking at this our Peak was

October of last year so that will be

that'll be interesting to see you

know if we have a single negative month

in terms of inventory at the moment

just based on looking at this data we

may actually end up having every month

this year as more inventory of homes for

sale than we did any month last

year-month supply again this is not

going to be accurate for the month of

September because we're providing

inventory of homes for sale at the end

of the given month a number that's

always wrong buy the monthly pending

sales from the last TW 12 months which

is always also a number that's always

wrong so this 3.2 number this is going

to be in the high twos once they revise

it the more important numberers

August was 2.7 which is an

increase from every other month that

we've had this year and an increase Year

on-ear from the 2.3 of August of 2024 I

2024 where'd that come from August 2022

so it was up from 2.3 to 2.7 year

on year I suspect September will also be up

slightly maybe at 2.8 2.9 something like

that so we're slowly approaching 3

months of inventory which we have not

had in a very long time so we will

we'll keep track of that that is pretty

much all I want to cover except for one

little thing and this is we'll look at

the quick facts here the strongest

price range or the price range with the

strongest sales was 1 million and $1 I

hate that they have to do that but $1

million1 and above had a

7.6% increase so again this is what I'm

talking about the homes that are

essentially insulated from these high

interest rates are the luxury homes

the luxury housing market is the market

right now that is basically not being

impacted by

all these higher interest rates all of

those

things here's another little

interesting tidbit the property type

with the strongest sales which was still

a decrease still a 1.9% decrease year

onye but it's an interesting detail the

property type with the strongest sales

was condos okay and this is because

condos are more affordable right now

than single-family homes and so we're

seeing more people that traditionally

would have to that would traditionally

want to buy a single-family home they're

having to purchase condos and townhomes

so very interesting detail there I

believe that both of these Trends will

continue maybe not at the same rate

but I do think that both of these Trends

will

continue so that is all that I have

to share with you guys today I

appreciate you guys watching and

listening if you have any questions

let me know my contact information is in

the show notes as always please like

rate review the show and whatever app

pod whatever app whatever platform

Spotify iTunes Google Play YouTube

Stitcher radio and if and by the way if

we're not on a platform that you want us

to be on please let me know that as well

and I'll make sure to get this podcast

on that platform thank you guys for

watching and listening and we will talk

again next time