Hello everyone and Welcome to another

episode of Selling Greenville your

favorite real estate podcast here in

Greenville, South Carolina, I'm your host

as always Stan Mccune realtor right here in

the Greenville area and you can find all

of my contact information in the show

notes if you need to reach out to me for

any of your real estate needs and just a

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the show today we are going to be kind

of getting back into the normal groove

of things had a few a few weeks of

episodes that that are kind of outside

of the norm and we had the

Thanksgiving holiday I'm actually

recording this before Thanksgiving but

I'm going to be releasing this after

Thanksgiving it's just a little bit

chaotic for me in terms of we do some

Thanksgiving travel it just made sense

for me to record this ahead of time and

we have we actually just got what

on November 18th I think the greater

Greenville Association of Realtors

Market stats we go over these pretty

much every month and this month is going

to be no exception and so if you are

watching on on YouTube I am going

to share my screen if I can figure out

how here we

go I'm going to share my screen and show

you guys the actual Market stats for the

month of November that came out all

right here we

go so we're just going to start right at

the top there's some interesting little

tidbits in here and we're going to start

with new listings new listings were up

month on Monon and year on year so

new listings for the month of October

right because that's the most recent

month that we have this data for

1,847 excuse me 1,847 new listings

that's a an 8% increase year- on-year

and a an even bigger increase month- on

Monon now that shouldn't come the month

on month inquiry shouldn't come as a

huge surprise it's not uncommon that we

see a little October bump if you're

looking at this on

YouTube Excuse me I don't know I'm over

my sickness but all of a sudden I

started to get choked up here I

apologize if you're looking on

YouTube you can see I've got the chart

on up here you can see that there is

commonly an October bump that happens

it's happened in several several

different years if you go back

historically and this is what happens

you get the people that you know after

the school year begins obviously real

estate activity goes way way down but

then what happens is October comes

around and people are like well I

don't want to wait until the holidays

and so we get this little bump in

activity we're not just going to see it

on new listings we'll also see it

elsewhere in the data that I'll show

you here in a moment but year on year

an 8% increase that's our first increase

since March so that's very interesting

to me and and I'm not really sure

how to explain it outside of I think

that people just keep waiting waiting

waiting kicking the can kicking the can

hoping you know hey I I really don't

want to have to move in this environment

I don't want to put put my home up for

sale in this environment and then

eventually they just reach a point where

they have no other choice they have to

go ahead and list their home I've seen

this personally with some of some

of the clients that I've had this year

where it's not the year that they really

wanted to move but for whatever reason

work expanding their family moving

for other reasons they simply had to and

and I think that this is all why

we're seeing this very weird pattern

again if you're watching on YouTube you

can see that all year we've had this

weird Crown like pattern of new

listings going up going down going up

going down going up going down month on

month which is very unusual

really the closest comparison that we

have in recent years is 2017 had

something similar to that but usually we

just have a very

standard Peak that happens during the

summer months sometimes the spring

months it just depends and then a fall

as we get out of the busy season of the

year when it comes to new listings this

year we have not had that traditional

Peak and then traditional fall right now

we're having a a lot of mini Peaks and a

lot of mini Falls happening and it the

reason why I call a crown if you're

looking at this you can see it it looks

like a little bit of a crown formation

happening now I suspect probably the

month of November we will have that Peak

sorry that that drop off in new

listings data that comes in but but

we will see there there's a lot to

consider

here pending sales this is always

the most recent month and these stats

are always off so that's just

something to keep in mind as an example

because I have last month's data

in front of me just to compare apples to

apples last month September reading was

728 pending sales they revised that up

to 1,092 pending sales for the month of

September so that's a big revision

that's over

350 more pendings than what we

were originally told and so it's

about a third higher re really

closer to 50% higher because when you

take 728 which is what they originally

gave us it's essentially 50% of that

is what we got revised up to with

1092 that is though a a drop off of

13.7% year- on-year impending sales and

so obviously this is what we've been

seeing most of the year we have been

seeing a drop off in in

pendings and it's going to be

interesting with October being lower

year on year are we going to see that

for November as well I suspect that we

probably will we're going to probably

see even though last year was the

worst year for pending sales since

2018 I suspect that the trend will

continue that it will ultimately be

even worse this year we we're in a

housing recession I've been telling you

guys this for a long time by the way

I I don't remember if I've said this on

here or not when the US economy goes

into recession I believe housing will

actually come out of recession we in

housing we experienced our recession we

took our lumps early okay so what's

most likely going to happen if the US

economy goes into a recession then

mortgage rates are going to come down

because the FED will pivot and the FED

will will bring their rates down and

other things will happen driving

mortgage down and then we'll see housing

activity pick back up and people say

well if we're in a recession people are

losing their jobs and all of that the

amount of people that lose their jobs

in a recession is a few million and

that pales in comparison to the the

hundreds of millions of traditional home

buyers that we have in a given year so

that is what I anticipate will

happen I think we had the housing

recession early I think that when the

broader economy sees something that

resembles a recession or or something

of you know higher unemployment or

whatever you want to call it if you want

to avoid the RW then I I think at

that point that housing will will

pull out of the recession that we are in

there might be a few there will probably

a few months of pain in there when

the economy is is much worse than

kind of the lagging data would indicate

and that the fed you know perhaps when

we get when we're in March of of this

year this upcoming

year will the economy will will be

kind of in bad shape but the FED

might wait several more months to do

anything just because so much of their

data that they're relying on is lagging

data so there might be a few months of

pain but I do expect that at some

point that that we will see basically

the the housing market do a little bit

of a of a rebound before the economy has

rebounded as a

whole close sales this is a very

interesting one the I mentioned before

that the month of October frequently

sees a little bit of a bump oh and I and

I should have pointed it out here we we

frequently see in pending sales let's go

back to that for a second we frequently

see an October bump in pending sales and

if you look at the data you can see

historically it it's hit or miss not

every month sees that that little bump

happening or sorry not every year sees

that little bump happen in the month of

October but it does happen frequently

with the pending sales as well and

then the result is closed sales often

times have a little bit of a November

bump so you can see that historically if

you're looking at some of these Trends

again now it's people trying to trying

to close out trying to do their real

estate trans transaction before the

holiday season but we had an

interesting month of October we didn't

have a a year on sorry a month- on-month

bump in closed sales but we did have

basically a flat year on-ear so October

was

1,229 closings as opposed to October of

last year was

1,232 closings so very interesting only

a 2% decrease year on-ear so even though

we've seen so many different things

decreasing

year-on-year in particular pending sales down

pretty dramatically closed sales are not

down as far as you would expect and

and I would not be surprised I think

that there's a possibility that that

the month of December ends up seeing a

little bit of a positive print we'll see

November of last year if you're looking

at the chart you can see that November

of last year was actually a pretty

strong month

overall and so on once we get the

November data I suspect that it won't

be as good as as what it was last

year but perhaps December won't be

quite the you know in comparison to the

drop off that we had last year in

December which was insane I suspect

that that we might have a negative

November year on-ear print maybe a

positive December year on year print

inclosed sales that's something to

keep track

of I apologize for this frog I got in my

throat I have no idea where this came

from I've been feeling great and for

some reason there's a frog that just

doesn't want to leave my throat all

right days on Market until sale we are

at 41 days on

Market which month on month is one day

more than than the 40 that we had in

September so we're at 41 year on year

that's a

28.1% increase that's that's the lowest

increase that we've had for a while I've

been telling you guys that this is going

to level out to some extent cuz look at

last year last year we had this his

unbelievably historic rise from

unbelievable lows you know we were

around 20 days on Market until sale that

was never sustainable but to have a

historic rise where it essentially

tripled up to close to 60 which is what

happened in March of last of this past

year now it's kind of receded back

into the 40s and we've seen some

stability in the high 30s low 40s now

for quite some

time and and we're really close to

to seeing I mean man how how close are

we we're really close to I'm I'm sorry

I'm just trying to look at this data

here I think I think that there's a

good chance that we see a negative

year on-ear print before the end of this

year just based on the way the data

line went last year so this is

November November December of last

year we we saw things really start to

go up and so it'll be interesting to

see right now we're up 28.1% year-on-year

because October of last year was 32 days

on market and October of this year is 41

days on Market but I think we're we're

pretty close to and I think there's a

good chance that we see before the end

of this year that that maybe November

or December's days on Market until sale

end up being less than what they were

around this time last year so that'll

be an interesting thing to to track of

course the median sales price this is

probably the the thing that everyone

wants to hear more than anything else

what is the market doing and we set

another record the highest median sales

price in the history of US tracking

this data

324,000 so basically 325,000 that was

the median sales price up

7.7% year on-ear that's a huge number

like we haven't seen a a year-on-year

increase like that in a very very long

time so we would have to see a historic

historic drop off in these next 2 months

for us to not see positive sales price

appreciation now for the year now

I I do like to mention obviously the

median sales price it is an imperfect

metric for determining sales price

appreciation right one thing that we

have right now is an influx of of new

construction purchases that we've never

seen I have never had so many new

construction buyers and closing in my

entire career as I have had this year I

have a ton of clients that basically we

start out you know most people don't

start out looking for new construction

I've had very few clients over the years

that have started out looking for new

construction for a variety of reasons

but what ends up happening is it just

makes so much sense for people and

when I have a a

client that we've been looking for homes

and then they start saying that that

they might be interested in new

construction I just smile a little bit

because I've seen this happen so many

times the past few years but

particularly this year when you're

looking at a bunch of properties that

need a bunch of work and then you can

just go to a a a a new home builder

and get something for maybe slightly

more expensive but that new home builder

has bought your rate down so you're

actually paying less per month and

you're getting a brand new home and

you're able to you know have the the

home builders warranties and all these

things it just makes a lot of sense for

a lot of people and I think that that is

contributing to this median sales price

being pushed up because obviously new

construction is traditionally more

expensive slightly more expensive than

resale

homes and so very interesting number

here

325,000 if you want to know if you want

to tell people what the average home

sale in green will cost that is the

number to tell them now I know that

that's not the average that's the median

but the median is

it is the more accurate of the two if

you want to talk about the average the

average is

381,000 in change which is up 6% year

on-ear as well I again I don't think

that that is the most helpful number

that is impacted dramatically by holes

on the upper end of the spectrum and

so I prefer to look at the

median percent of list price received

this is one of the key metrics that we

look at to to to kind of determine what

is happening in the market what are

what are sellers receiving when it comes

to their home and it's very important

that you understand that this this

metric does not take into account if

a seller has reduced the price on a home

right if the list price has been reduced

that is not accounted for in in this

number okay so just keep that in mind

but the percent of list price received

came down a little bit month- on Monon

and came down a little bit year on-ear

to

98.3% that's actually the biggest it's

dropped in in quite some time right

because it was

98.7% last month it came down to

98.3% and October of last year was

also

98.7% similar to last month so

it's a 4% decrease and so what that

means is that the average seller is

getting 98.3% not accounting for seller

concession which right now there's a lot

of seller concessions out there so keep

that in mind as well sellers are

having to pay often times buyer closing

costs helping buyers to buy down

their rates again you can thank the the

the home builders for for introducing

that concept into the market but it

is what it is this is the way it is

right now you can expect to get

98.3% of what your home is listed for

once you've listed it correctly for the

correct price okay let's let's cave out

that

because you may have had to reduce

your price a few times and in that case

that does kind of skew the data a

little bit maybe at some point I'll go

in and try to try to rework some of this

data and and make it account for some

of those other things but this is the

best that we have at the moment housing

affordability index lowest that's ever

been right big big surprise because

we had the median sales price the

highest it's ever been we still have

mortgage rates pretty high as I'm

recording recing this mortgage rates

have tapered a little bit but they're

still in the mid sevs as of the time

of this recording I'm recording this

November 20th so the housing

affordability index alltime low because

it takes into account the the median

sales price it takes into account

prevailing interest rates and it takes

into account the median household income

we want to see this number at 100 or

better because that tells us that the

average family can afford the average

home but instead it's at 79 which is an

11.2% decrease year on year not great

not

great inventory of homes for S Oh by by

the way I should say this number if

mortgage rates do go down this number

will rebound dramatically okay mortgage

rates impact being being in the sevens

impacts housing affordability way more

than the fact that that the median

sales price is at its highest point ever

so I hope that we'll see this

number bounce back into the '90s

perhaps at some point I don't know if if

we'll see it go back into the hundreds

outside of a major major housing

recession beyond the scope of what

we've had thus far but but

hopefully we will see that number

rebound inventory of homes for sale this

is another number that's frequently

incorrect for the most recent month

so let's go to September and I'll tell

you what September was revised from

September was revised from

3,935 down to

3542 so basically a a

10% a correction on the September

number basically 400 fewer homes for

sale than what we were originally told

in the market stats and so but we're

looking at the trend right and the trend

is that it has been going up since

February we saw or I guess

technically we saw things bottom out and

April but it's been going up pretty

steadily since then and and it has I've

seen it continue to go up so

September was three

3542 properties for sale a 2.6%

increase year on year I I suspect

that we'll continue to see this line

continue to go up I don't think that

we're going to this year hit 4,000

I'd be very surprised I know the October

number says 4,000 again probably

subtract about 400 from that and you'll

you'll be pretty close to what it is

it's probably in the

3600 in change range that will

still be an increase year

on-ear and I think that that we'll

continue to see that Trend because more

and more homes are are sitting on the

market right now and we're we're in this

slow season and so we're we're going to

see inventory kind of build up a little

bit and in the month supply of

inventory again we can't look at at the

October numbers cuz that's dividing

pending sales by by amount of

inventory and and I just said that both

of those numbers are wrong so so we

don't want to look at for the most

recent month we don't want to look at

the 3.3 months supply of October we want

to look at the trend through

September and the trend through

September again same thing we just

looked at with inventory as a whole it's

been increasing since April April is at

2.2 months of inventory now it's at 2.8

months in in the month of September of

inventory probably a little bit higher

for the month of October maybe 2.9 maybe

3 but September was up 12% year on

year we have been up every single month

year on year but we're starting to to

compare against some of the softer

months of last year and so this is

actually the lowest year on-ear increase

of month supply the month of September

was that we've had in quite some time

as you can see if you're looking at

these these charts November of last year

was 125% increase year on year December

was 127 January was 140 February 130

March

155 so so here we are only at a 12%

year-on-year increase for the month of

September and and I suspect it will

be probably a similar increase for

the month of October once we get those

revised numbers in now I've been telling

you guys how to interpret month supply

traditionally has been that six months

of Supply is kind of what we consider a

balanced Market but I've been telling

you guys now for quite some time that I

don't think that we can really use

that line of thinking anymore because so

much so much has changed and it would

feel very much like a like a buyer

Market if we got into the four to four

and a half months of Supply Range and I

found it very interesting that one of

the people that I follow pretty

closely on Twitter and some other

news sites his name is Lance Lambert

really good resource if you if you want

to reach out to him or or if you want to

look into his stuff he actually and I'm

just going to I'm going to pull up here

something that he wrote he actually

addressed this which I found very

interesting he said a rule of thumb in

residential real estate is that anything

below six months supply of inventory is

considered a sellers Market however in

Austin where home prices began to

decline last summer when the months of

inventory stood at just 2.1 months that

rule hasn't applied effectively in fact

despite Austin's months of inventory

only reaching 4.0 as of September home

prices have already dropped 177% from

their Peak according to the Zillow home

value index so very interesting

obviously Austin is an outlier right now

but I do think that what Austin is

experiencing is something comparable to

what Greenville could experience if we

started to see this month's Supply

number cross over the 3 months threshold

and start to knock on the door of 4

months and I just think what we've seen

is that buyer and sellers expectations

have changed they're not used to you

know we've had several years of homes

selling pretty quickly sellers aren't

used to their home staying on the market

for four five 6 months they've not been

used to that for quite some time even

pre pandemic it was in the 4mon Range

four four and a half months something

like that so we start to but but

recently for the past three years we've

been in this sub thre Monon of

inventory market and so people have

gotten used to this people have gotten

used to home selling quickly sellers

in particular have gotten used to it and

and people are a lot of times in this

market people that that are selling

right now they understand that the

market is is a a bit depressed and so

sellers if they're selling they have to

sell right nobody right now is like

really wanting to sell their homes

sellers right now are in a position

where like I said maybe they're forced

Equity seller you know they're

they're unable to afford their payments

but they've got enough they've got

enough equity in their home that they're

not going to foreclose they're just

going to sell or perhaps they're

moving or perhaps they're growing their

family or whatever the case may be

people that are selling right now they

have to sell and they can't just wait it

out five six months and so what we're

seeing is that the market has shifted

like I said buyer expectations have also

changed where buyers are now if they see

a home that's been on the market for

four or five months they have no

interest in that home at all they assume

that there's something wrong they assume

that there's all sorts of issues and so

what we've seen is the conventional

wisdom with this month supply of

inventory just does not apply

anymore and so as long as we're you

know hovering around you know between 2

and a half to three and a half month

supply in current conditions I think it

will still kind of feel like the market

that it is a a slow sellers Market I

think that that's the the best way to or

the best way to describe the market

right now but if we cross over three and

a half months of inventory we start to

to knock on the door of four if we get

above four it will very very quickly

feel like a buyer Market to a lot of

people going to mention a few other

things real quick

here pending sales by price range

we're seeing more of the same where the

two price ranges that are doing the best

right now at least in year-on-year

comparison is the 500,000 to 750,000

range that was up half a percent year

onye and the 1 million and above up 6.3%

year-on-year this is where we're at in the

market right now those people right

now most of the options for sell for

listings and most of the options for

people buying are people that are

wealthier than your your median your St

standard buyer in Greenville and so

those higher price points are doing

better the reason why the 750 to a

million price point isn't doing as well

just has to do had a an

11.7% decrease year on- year at that

price point there's just not a whole lot

of homes for sale between 750 and a

million that's just the reality of the

situation and that's also right on the

cusp of people needing financing and and

if you need to get a Jumbo loan on

something

800,000 or whatever whatever the case

may

be that's I mean your monthly payment

on an $800,000 home right now at seven

seven you know and a half perc

mortgage rates that's just outrageous

million and above those are often times

cash buyers people that are able to tap

it tap into various lines of credit

that they might have or money market

accounts or whatever the case may be

and so that that's why we're seeing

strength at that that Upper price range

another interesting little tidbit by

property type single family homes

pendings are down 11.6% year on- year

but condos up 4% year-on-year again housing

affordability forcing people to go into

condos and town homes that otherwise

would not prefer to and that's the

case with pending sales closed sales

we saw the 500 to 750 price point CA

4.2% increase year on year the 750 to

a million was down 4.5% year on year and

a million and above was up 13.6% year

on-ear so reflecting similar numbers to

what we saw with the pending sales

and condos in terms of close sales were

down 6.8% year-on-year which that's very

interesting we'll have to see if if

that Trend

continues so here we are entering the

slow season I'm keep keeping you guys

up to date with everything that you

could possibly want to know in the

Greenville Market but if you have any

questions please let me know my contact

information is in the show notes happy

to talk to you guys about any any

questions or concerns you might have

with the data please let me know

please if you like the show don't just

like it in your head press the like

button in whatever platform you're

watching or listening to it on I

appreciate you guys thank you I hope you

guys had a great Thanksgiving I should

have mentioned that before I hope you

had a great Thanksgiving I hope that the

incoming Christmas Hanukkah Etc season

that is upon us is a is a really

special season hopefully not too busy

for you guys as well we will talk again

next week