Hello everyone and Welcome to another
episode of Selling Greenville your
favorite real estate podcast here in
Greenville, South Carolina, I'm your host
as always Stan Mccune realtor right here in
the Greenville area you can find all of
my contact information in the show notes
if you need to reach out to me for any
of your real estate needs just a
reminder as always please like rate
review subscribe all those good things
if you're watching on YouTube if
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Spotify whatever please make sure you
don't miss future episodes by hitting
the Subscribe button or whatever button
it is that is on the app that you're
using we're going to jump right in
this is episode 200 200 for the show
an insane Milestone could not have made
it to episode 200 without you guys my
great listeners so many of you tune
in every single week and yeah I just
I'm just blown away that we've made
it to 200 episodes and there will be a
special prize given to one of you
listeners I'm going to get into a few
more details later but there will be
a an episode 200 a special prize that
that I will be doing and I'm going to
announce that not at the beginning not
at the end it's going to be somewhere
in the middle of this podcast make you
guys actually listen because I want
to make sure that that I don't just
give it away in a very obvious Place
but please listen to the entire
episode so you don't miss that and by
the way a lot has happened since
since I last recorded I've been
recording all of these episodes you
know a week or two in advance so I
recorded the past week's episode
the week
prior and a lot happened by the way I
forgot to wish everyone a Merry
Christmas last time that was my bad this
is what happens when you record episodes
early you kind of forget okay this is
going to be my last episode Before
Christmas whatever I'm making up for it
for those of you watching on YouTube I
am wearing an ugly sweater that
involves Santa actually riding a
T-Rex which I think is the most
American thing ever okay regardless
I've been dealing with a lot of
interest inter in things lately it's
just been an interesting last few weeks
and this episode that I'm recording
I'm recording on December 18th long
story short I do not want to have to be
recording or thinking about podcasts
over the holiday season so recording
everything early so this won't be
until after Christmas but I hope you
guys had a great Christmas but I'm
excited to share if you don't already
know which probably a lot of you do a
few days ago as I'm recording this
now if you're listening to this a few
weeks ago Fox News actually reached
out to me not Fox News local Fox news
digital reached out to me because
of this podcast for a comment on why
people are flocking to Greenville from
other areas of the
country and so I gave them some
information and I really didn't know
what was going to come of it I've never
had the media reach out to me local
media tends to have their own kind of
Circle of a handful of realtors that
they like to get comments from but
the national media does not have ties to
those agents and so a local person
that works for Fox News digital
passed along my information apparently
and and they ended up quoting me a
lot in this article that they
published in Greenville and I was
just pretty much blown away from it I'll
link to the article in the show notes if
you want to read it there's no pay
wall but it does it has prompted some
people to enter an email address and
if you want to bypass that I believe you
can bypass it by simply turning on
reader viiew in your browser after you
click the link anyway I am really
grateful to have had the opportunity to
get the type of exposure that Fox News
granted me that AB absolutely blew me
away and that wouldn't be possible if
this show didn't have listeners so again
one more little tidbit we're episode 200
and I'm going to do something special
for my listeners in this episode
specifically I'll be giving away a $200
Amazon gift card $1 for every episode
to one of you but again you have to
listen to the rest of this episode
because at some point I'm going to give
the details on how you can win the gift
card it's going to come a little bit
later okay on to the meat and and
potatoes of the episode this is the
recap of 2023 look at all these things
coming together right the end of 2023
episode 200 me being on Fox News me
doing a giveaway like this is just an
exciting episode all around for
me and this isn't going to be too data
heavy we are going to look at the market
stats for the month of November that
just came out a few days ago but I
just want to kind of talk really big
picture well both macro and micro I
guess and I want to start off just by
talking about my personal business right
because some of you have have actually
expressed interest in what the year was
like for me we talk a lot about just
the General what's happening in the
market but I want to talk
specifically about what was going on
with my business and I just want to say
that my business reflected a lot
of people's business that I
experienced earlier this year which was
in January we just had a really really
insanely slow start to the year like it
was it it was most comparable like the
the closest thing I can compare it to is
when we had the the pandemic and like
things kind of came to a halt we're all
in in lockdowns nobody is you know
calling about real estate people are
just walking their dogs keeping their
distance from people all of that and
that's what it was like at the very
beginning of this year and I talked to a
lot of other agents that are even
more experienced than me that
experienced the exact same thing and
then in February our phone started
getting hot people started calling
people started getting interested in
things a little more activity and
then when March came around all of a
sudden we were right back in the thick
of it before you knew it it felt like a
normal year again we discussed this a
lot on this show but buyer demand
stabilized in November of last year of
2022 and it simply took a few months for
that demand stabilization to actually be
felt all over the country and with
Realtors Nationwide and so that's what
happened with me I really didn't feel it
until the end middle towards the end
of the first quarter that was when it
was like okay this isn't going to be an
apocalyptic year it's going to be
okay we're going to make it and then it
ended up being a very very normal year
overall now essentially two months of
the year were very slow so in a sense I
kind of lost two months of of this year
of normal business and as a result my
business was down ever so slightly this
year now I'm not going to discuss actual
numbers numbers of closings numbers of
Comm commissions or amount of
commissions all of this stuff because
it's literally a no one situation if I
start getting into that right there's
going to be some people that will hear
that and be like well that's like
nothing right you know they they'll hear
you know they have in their mind that
the average realtor gets hundreds and
hundreds of closings they're going to
hear my number and be like well stand
small time then on the on the other side
of the equation you'll have some people
that will
hear the numbers be like well my gosh
Stan is making tons and tons of money
you know he's doing super well like he's
doing better than me like why should I
have to pay him a commission you know so
there's really no in situation when you
start getting into this I've heard
Realtors I haven't really experienced
this too much myself but I've heard
realtors that have actually lost out
on deals on on both sides of the
equation right you've had some people
that are like well I'm not going to use
you because I want to give you're you're
doing just fine I want to give business
to my cousin that just got licensed they
need the money right that's a subtle way
of saying we don't think that you need
the
money and we're not going to give you
our business but on the other hand I've
heard of Realtors there was a realtor
just recently that was telling me how
she missed out on a listing she did went
to a listing appointment and she was it
was a competitive appointment so there
were other realtors that had already
talked to these people that were selling
their home and the other realtor had
must that that had come before this
this lady must
have skewed numbers in some way said
that she had
had like several hundred closings the
past year which had to have been
either just a straightup lie or she
might have been lping in numbers from
her team which you shouldn't really
count in a situation like like that
but
nonetheless this friend of mine lost
out on the listing because the the
people that were listing their home were
like well you're too small time we we
want this other agent that does hundreds
of of transactions per year so all that
to say no one's situation if I reveal
specifics on those numbers but I will
reveal some some highlevel
stuff so my best year on record is still
2021 which is shouldn't really be a huge
surprise since that's the best year in
the history of Greenville real estate
it's not going to be my best year for
forever it's not going to be
greenville's best year forever either
but right now for a lot of Realtors 2021
was their best year no different for me
we've had two straight declines in our
markets in our Market in real estate
closings and that's reflected in my
personal numbers I had
7.7% fewer closings in 2023 than I did
in 20 22 22 was down from 21 as well
and the money that I made from
Commissions in 23 about
99.4% less than 2022 and yes I'm
accounting for I'm recording this before
the end of the year I'm factoring in
some end of year I'm making some end of
your assumptions in some of those
numbers so my business was down a
little bit given the fact that I
essentially lost two months out of the
year it's really not down much at all
but also as you guys know if you
listen frequently I flip houses a little
bit on the side not a big thing that I
do and but I did that more this
year than previous years knowing that it
was going to be a down year and also
feeling like there was an opportunity to
bring some inventory to the market in a
low inventory environment and so I
actually ended up making more money on
the house flips and things of that
nature than I normally do and that more
then made up for the decrease in
commissions for those of you that are
really worried about about me yes I'm
I'm talking to you Mom assuming that
you're listening I'll say this as
well another positive is that my average
commission has gone up substantially in
recent years going up every year since
2020 some of that is simply the
result of me being able to command a
better commission split with my company
that I'm with in other instances
that's simply the result of me entering
a higher tier Market as it were although
you guys know I don't look down on
anything I had a $80,000 listing earlier
this year last year I had a a $60,000
listing I I don't look down on on
actually it was a $50,000 listing last
year I don't look down on smalltime
things at all so you guys know I cut my
teeth in this business helping
investors that was really how I started
and those investor closings particularly
back in like 2017 2018 you're talking
about 30 $40,000 homes with
regularity and so I'm never going
to look down on small transactions I
legitimately am not focused on on my
commission I'm focused on just
delivering the best service that I
can for my clients I get fulfillment out
of that and I'm not just saying that to
say it like that's that's legitimately
true
now in terms I found this interesting I
kind of broke down because I wasn't
really sure exactly how much how many
specifics I was going to give in this
episode so I broke down my business in
terms of I looked at total closings I
looked at investor closings like I said
traditionally a huge portion of my
business has been for investors I
also looked at new construction
obviously we've talked about new
construction is has been a much
bigger part of the market in Rec years
so I looked at that as well and
basically here's what I
concluded since 20 19
2020 my business has completely trans
transitioned from being around 30 to 50%
investors so 30 to 50% investor closings
relocations back 2019 2020 people moving
here from out of state very low 0 to 5%
relocations just kind of depending on
the year it would be like kind of I
might have one Closing one year and then
zero the next maybe two the next year
you know whatever small percentage of my
closings and then about 50 to 60% of my
closings were just your standard
owner occupant Greenville to Greenville
moves you know someone that's just
staying in Greenville but upsizing or
downsizing or whatever the case may
be that all has transitioned again 30 to
50% investors almost no relocations and
then roughly 50% Greenville to
Greenville 50 to 60% depending on the
year Greenville to Greenville moves
that has transitioned now to my business
is roughly 20% investors so that's gone
way down and that's just a reflection
of the fact that there's not been a
whole lot of opportunities to invest
recently 20% relocations that's in large
part due to this show and to you guys
listening to the show from out of state
looking for a realtor and contacting me
and I really appreciate that and
60% of my business roughly speaking
is Greenville to Greenville so that's
about the same that really hasn't
changed I said before it was 50 to
60% before basically the biggest thing
that's changed is my investor pool has
gone down and my relocations have gone
from basically being an afterthought in
my business to being a core chunk of my
business so I I find all of that to
be very interesting what about the
market as a whole all right so that was
my specific business let's just talk
about the market as a whole for a second
first
off contingencies again this isn't going
to be anything shocking but for those of
you that are new to the show
contingencies are back they came back
with a Vengeance in 2023 and when I say
contingencies a lot of people think
about home sale contingencies right when
someone makes an offer on a home and
it's contingent on the sale of their
homes but I'm talking about all
contingencies due diligence
contingencies financing contingencies
all of those types of things but home
sale contingencies for sure those were
dead between 2020 and
2022 they are back PE sellers are no
longer afraid of home sale contingencies
because they're not getting as many
offers as they as they used to get
they can't be as choosy as they used to
be able to be and so here we are we have
more and more home sale contingencies
and other contingencies than we've had
in the past VA loans are back I'm VA
loans certified I love VA loans a lot
of Agents don't like them because
they've had a bad experience with them I
think that's a bunch of hogwash I think
that they're they're blaming VA loans
on something that you can easily blame
an appraiser for right and I talked
about appraisers I'm not going to trash
them on the show there there's another
time in place for that but but I'm
a big proponent of VA loans VA loans in
2023 are the highest percentage that
they've been since 2019 and we're we're
almost back to 2019 levels so we have
this period of time where VA loans
really started to go down in terms of a
percent of the market and again this is
just you've got all these agents that
are scared of them and they'll warn
their their seller clients you know
particularly in a multiple offer
situation hey you don't want to accept
to VA loan there's all sorts of things
that can go wrong with it listen it's
about the same amount of stuff that can
go wrong with any other Loan program
that's out there I'm not worried about
them I'm glad to see that they're
coming back comparably to what they
were before the pandemic cash
transactions this is also an interesting
tidbit for me cash transactions
essentially flat in 2023 as compared to
2022 about 25% a quarter of the market
a quarter of closings are cash
transactions it used to be pre
pandemic well below 20% closer to 15
16 70% usually that was where we were
hovering but since the pandemic or
well really since let's see
here since around towards the end or
middle towards the end of 2021 that
really started to change cash
transactions have have always been
King but particularly now a quarter of
transactions are cash transactions a
huge amount and that's a direct
result of there being a lot of baby
boomers and other people that are
sitting on a lot of cash that aren't
afraid to spend it that like real estate
as an option for dumping that cash in
versus taking a risk in the stock market
or whatever the case may be okay we're
going to look at the market stats that
were just released for the month of
November but before we do that we are
going to talk about the $200 Amazon gift
card giveaway we're finally getting to
the details I told you it' be in the
middle of the show so here we are all
right very simple how you can get this
$200 gift card it's only one gift card
only one of you guys are going to get it
you got to do a few things first
youve got to subscribe to the show on
your favorite podcast app I don't care
which podcast app it is if it's Apple
if it's Spotify if it's something else
you need to subscribe to it on there
secondly you need to go to YouTube you
need to find this podcast on YouTube
I'll tell you how to how to find it
because people are stealing my selling
Greenville name on
YouTube which is very easy to do
what you need to do is you need to
search selling Greenville podcast okay
and and I recently changed my
username on there to selling Greenville
pod but if you just go to YouTube and
you just search three separate words
selling Greenville podcast I promise you
that you'll find it you can also just
search my name you'll likely find it
that way as well and once you do that
you want to subscribe to the show on
YouTube and you need to like an episode
and you need to comment on one of the
episodes on YouTube this is what I want
to grow this year I want to grow the
YouTube channel I do plan to improve
things like the video quality you
know my background which has been this
window ever since I started this
at some point there's going to be a
better background than a window I
promise you guys but guess what this
I thought that was going to happen this
year right I started doing this video
when I thought okay this is going to be
a slow year and then ended up not being
a slow year and so I wasn't able to get
back to trying to improve the video
quality that's a good thing and I thank
you guys for that the video quality will
improve but when you guys do like
subscribe and comment on one of my
episodes on on the YouTube
channel you need to actually give a
specific comment about the episode okay
not just like awesome content or
something like that actually comment on
the episode something related to the
episode that you listen to right you
obviously listen to it I'm fine if
you want to ask a question as well I
will get back to you as I have
opportunity but that would be okay as
well how long do you have to do this
you have until January the 4th to do
this and then I will select someone at
random from the people who did this and
I will announce on my January 10th
episode of this podcast who won okay so
you'll need to tune in really you want
to tune in every week right but you want
to do all of these things subscribe to
the show on your favorite podcast app
subscribe on YouTube like and comment
comment on an episode on YouTube and
do all of that by January 4th and then
listen to the show on January 10th I
believe it's January 10th but it's that
week and then I will announce who won
on that show and I might need to I might
announce the name I might not be able to
identify you depending on how your
name shows up so it's the kind of
thing where I'm going to say it on the
show and then I'm going to I I might be
asking you guys who you are and then ask
asking you to text me which one of
you it is so so please make sure that
you listen all
right we are going to transition here to
Market stats and I'm going to screen
share if you'll just bear with me one
second well this is taking a lot longer
than I anticipated because I keep
clicking on other things by accident all
right let's see here share screen here
we
go all
right Market stats all right here we
go got the market stats here if you're
watching on
YouTube you can see these if you're not
if you're just listening that's fine as
well I'm just going to hit some high
points I'm not going to go through these
in a ton of Det details simply
because I don't want this show to go too
long new listings new listings
data was up 15.2% year on year very
interesting and here's what I think
is happening mortgage rates are going
down more people are buyers buyers are
typically sellers so demand goes up also
Supply goes up usually those things
happen in tandem and so guess what
new listings went up 15.2% it was still
a big drop off month to month but
still that's a a a pretty tremendous
increase and now we've had two straight
months of new listings increases
again very interesting I would imagine
since mortgage rates are still down that
this trend will continue into January
pending sales pending sales for the
most recent month for some reason a
greater Greenville Association of
Realtors who produces these stats for
some reason always the most recent month
is not right for pending sales but
what I anticipate is that this 715
number for the month of November is
going to be revised into the low 1000s
compared to November of 2022 our pending
sales were 987 so we should see I'm
predicting that once this number is
revised we will see our first increase
in pending sales since April of 2023
April of this year so that will be
interesting to see if I'm right but I
I think that I am going to be right
because I know these stats very
well as you guys know if you've
listened to this but also just again
Common Sense mortgage rates going down
demand goes up pending sales are
going to go up as well closed sales
for the month of December we're down
4.8%
year-on-year but still following the normal
seasonal trend line it was just that
we just happen to have a stronger than
expected November of last year if
you're looking at the at the chart
you can see that there was a little
upswing in November 2022 that was an
anomaly remember I said demand
stabilized in November of last year
that's one of the indicators that we
have of that days on Market until sale
we hit our highest number since May
of this of this year we're at 44 days
on Market until sale that's a
25.7% increase Year on-ear from November
of last year which at 35 now what will
be interesting to see is if we find a
way to surpass the first quarter
numbers of last year we got all the way
up to 58 days on Market until sale in
March of last
year I could see it going either way
with mortgage rates going down if
that holds if we keep seeing mortgage
rates into the first quarter of next
year below 7% then I would be very
surprised if we exceeded the days on
market number of of the first quarter of
last year I would think that we would
have lower days on Market numbers
because going to be more again more
buyer demand coming into the market
but we'll have to see because there are
a lot of homes right now that are kind
of languishing on the market that aren't
reflected in this days on Market data
and when they sell after having been on
the market for 120 150 days it's going
to really skew this data so this will
be very interesting to see this is the
kind of data where I would honestly
we're looking at averages but I would
love to see the median for this but
unfortunately we we don't have that
that's not very simple I could
probably try to pull that myself but for
the time being I'm just going to rely
on the GG
numbers what we do have a median for is
the median sales price and the median
sales price came down month on Monon to
31275 but that still up 2.9% year
on-year which is when you look at the
entire year that's one of the stronger
year- on-year increases that we've had
for the whole year and this has been
something we've been looking at really
closely I've been telling you guys you
know hey we've got we've got to to look
at seasonality to we know that prices
are going to come down in the fourth
fourth quarter of this year but it's
important to compare year on year versus
just month- on month and here we are
December of last year was at 295 all
right so for us to end the year below
December of last year we would have to
see the month-on-month number come
down really low and we've not had a
print below 300,000 since March so it's
really really looking like we're going
to end 2023 with a positive median sales
price print which is indirectly tied
to price appreciation so it's not
one: one that this median sales price
going up means that every home has
appreciated in value in the Greenville
Market but it is an indicator that
that's happening and so 312,000 was
the November number that's up from 303
about
34,000 in November of last year so a
2.9% increase year-on-year the average
went up 5 and a half% again as I've said
before the median is more accurate when
we're trying to track what's happening
in the market cuz the average sales
price is skewed by those really
expensive homes that sell every now and
then but still it was up 5.5% we only
had one month we discussed this last
week one month that was down that was
the month of March every other month has
been has been up year on year and you
know the past five months in particular
have been really strong we've only had
one month that was less than
52% increase year on-year to the
average price of a home in Greenville
that was the month of August it was 2%
otherwise we've been seeing the
average sales price go up over 5%
over 5 and a half% every single month
for the past for the past five months
with the exception of August percent
of list price received stayed flat
98.3% and this now gives us our first
month of the year where the percent of
list price received was higher year on
year November of last year was
98.1% November of this year
98.3% so sellers are for the first time
on a year-on-year basis getting more
than they did the year prior for
their
home and you can if you're looking on
YouTube you can read the description
I'm not going to get into the Weeds on
it but this is the percentage found when
dividing a property sales price by its
most recent list price then taking the
average for all properties sold in a
given month not accounting for seller
concessions okay I'm not going to
explain all of that again because we
need to keep plugging away with this
I've explained that in other episodes
you can go back and listen to housing
affordability index we had some nice
movement in the month of November
finally finally a little bit of relief
for home buyers and I would imagine
that this is heavily related to mortgage
rates going down it went up from
79 79 housing affordability index to
86 in the month of November now that's
still a 6.5% year on-year decrease from
the 92 that we had the prior year but
it's at least good to see it getting
higher in in the month of November
now seasonally that is pretty normal
but I'm hoping that this trend continues
for the next few months as mortgage
rates hopefully are lower than what
they've been so that's great to see what
we want to see this number at is 100
when at least 100 100 means that the
median household the standard household
in Greenville can't afford the median
priced home so that's what we want to
see at 86 then the median household
can only afford 86% of the median priced
home in the market that's not great we
want to see that number higher in so far
as we
can inventory of homes for sale this is
another one similar to pendings that
is typically off a little bit okay so it
says
4,55 which is a big increase from
November of last year which was
3522 that's going to get revised down to
probably 3700 3,800 something like that
after it's all said and done still going
to be an increase year onye and October
La the last month that we have these
stats for was up 3.8% year on year it'll
probably be something similar for the
month of November so inventory is still
going up but it's going up at a much
slower Pace than it was with some of
these earlier prints like in March we
had inventory was up
114% Year on-ear we're not seeing
anything like that we're and we're
still below the prepandemic Norms right
so as long as we are below
4,000 we are still below pre-
pandemic but we're getting closer we're
getting very close to to the
pre-pandemic Norms now that said we're
still not particularly well I guess
we're getting closer to the pre-pandemic
norms and month supply you don't want to
look at at the most again the most
recent number but we're right around 3%
month supply that's what October was was
revised to and I imagine that November
is going to be pretty close to that
about 3 months supply of inventory
and and so we'll keep tracking that I
talked a lot about that in in some
other episodes recently so I'm not going
to get in the Weeds on that so there we
go th that is some of what's happening
in in the market based on the market
stats Nationwide we've had a decline
in closing I've read some some data
recently 18% declin in closing is
Nationwide so Greenville is much more
steady and stable than that and and
that's something that I think is is
great I I like that about our Market the
highs in Greenville aren't as high as
other places and the lows aren't as low
when it comes to the real estate
market and that's really helpful for me
as a realtor that's really helpful for a
lot of my clients they they you know
when you're in a boom and bust type of
Market that's really terrifying if
you're a buyer or a seller the
Greenville Market is stable and that's
reflected in all of these numbers at the
end of the day
now next week I've got another episode
that I'm very excited for we're going to
talk about the Bold predictions that I
have for the year 2024 we're going to
kick off 2024 right with 10 bold
predictions but before then we had
this episode The recap of 2023 I hope
you guys appreciated it I appreciate you
guys and I appreciate you all of my
listeners I'm looking forward to giving
away a $200 Amazon gift card to one of
you if you skip to the end to try to
figure out how to get that gift card
you're going to have to rewind because I
said it earlier but I appreciate you
guys listening please like rate review
subscribe to this podcast however you're
watching or listening and please just
a reminder as always my contact
information is in the show notes Fox
News found it and they sent me an email
and I replied to them within just a few
hours I saw the I actually saw it right
when it hit my inbox and I said I need
to not look desperate I'm going to wait
a few minutes before I respond to this
and and so that's exactly what I did
which I don't know that it's probably a
silly thing to do but but it was a
slow day and and I saw that email as
soon as it came in and and and I was
tempt to just respond right away and I
was like no give it some time to breathe
give it some time to think about your
response and so I did but but yeah
there's a little peek behind the veil at
how some of that went down but I
appreciate all you guys that contact
information is in the show notes if you
need a realtor or if you need or if
you're a media publication you need a
comment on the Greenville Market here
you go I'm your guy thank you guys for
listening we will talk again next time
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