Hello everyone Happy New Year happy

2024 Welcome to the first 2024 episode

of Selling Greenville your favorite real

estate podcast here in Greenville South

Carolina, I'm your host as always Stan

Mccune realtor right here in the Greenville

area you can find all of my contact

information in the show notes as always

if you need to reach out to me for any

of your Greenville Spartanburg Anderson

Pickens all the Upstate of South

Carolina any Upstate of South Carolina

needs please reach out to me there I'd

be happy to help you I'd be happy to

talk about the show whatever it is that

you want to chat about if you don't

already have it get my contact

information in the show notes and please

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just about every podcast platform

including YouTube which I hope to

expand this year so so please please

reach out to or don't reach out to

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Subscribe button if you can like or

comment or rate or review the show

please do those things as well we are

going to kick off the year right 2024

man 2023 went by fast it was a weird

year it went by very fast here we are

I'm I'm technically recording this at

the end of 2023 so it's not yet

the new year as I'm recording this but I

will be releasing this in the new

year so I hope you guys had a great

holiday season a great new year it

was at least in so far as we've gotten

through it so far because like I said

I'm recording this prior to the new year

but so far the holiday season has

been phenomenal for for me and for my

family and today I want to talk about

bold predictions for the Year this is

one of my favorite episodes we we start

off the year with one of my favorite

episodes The Bold predictions for the

year and I have 10 bold predictions for

you and what's funny is there is a

pretty well renowned real estate expert

Mastermind who did his 2024 bold

predictions recently and he only gave

three of them and they weren't

particularly bold in my opinion I've got

10 bold predictions for you guys and

and I think that they're pretty good in

in my opinion and if you listen to my

bold predictions from 2023 recap I got

five to 5 and a half of my 10 from

last year right I'm hoping to increase

that I'm hoping to get to at least 60%

or more of of my bold predictions for

this year to be accurate and quite a

bit of research has gone into this I

don't do and and I'll share if you're on

YouTube I will be sharing some charts

and some things at at at a few points

that will show some of the data

behind some of these bold predictions

but there really aren't any bold

predictions that I have in here that

don't have at least some data element to

them I've got data kind of backing

everything but before we get in real

quick I just want to say if you're

listening to this before January the 5th

you have an opportunity to be a part of

a giveaway I'm giving away a $200

Amazon gift card you can be a part of

that but you have to listen to

the final episode of 2023 in order to

get that that's where I spill the beans

on how to win that gift card and it

will be random at the end of the day but

there are some things that you have to

do in order to get into the random

drawing and so please if you're

listening to this prior to January 5th

and you've not yet heard the episode

before please make sure you listen to

that so you have a chance to get in on

that giveaway all right here we go bold

predictions for 2000 for the year

2024 we're going to start with the thing

that a lot of people want to want to

know and really the big question mark

going into this year this is the thing

that controls so many things in real

estate and it is mortgage rates and

specifically what the Federal Reserve is

going to do now before I give my bold

prediction I want to

say that this is the first year in a

long time that we've had as much debate

as we currently are having over what the

FED will do here's what I've heard I've

heard economic experts and analysts

say the FED is going to start cutting

rates in the first quarter I've heard

some say the FED is going to start

cutting rates in the second quarter I've

heard some say the FED is going to start

cutting rates in the third quarter some

that the FED is going to start cutting

rates in the fourth some that the FED

won't cut rates at all some that the

fed's going to raise rates and some that

that the fed's going to cut rates and

then Rea them and I'm I'm not

exaggerating I follow a lot of different

people that are well respected in

economics and in housing that have

made their predictions on this and then

you can also look at predictions that

you know big companies like Goldman

Sachs and and Blackstone and black

rock companies like that maril Lynch Pro

projections predictions that they are

making as far as the FED nobody agrees

this is the first time a long time that

nobody is in agreement over what the FED

is going to do and so it's really a big

question mark here's what I think here

is my number one bold prediction for the

year I think that the FED is going to

begin cutting rates in the second

quarter of

2024 now admittedly this is a bit of a

projection but I don't think that

they're going to cut rates in the first

quarter I I think that they're going

to need the next three months to kind of

reassess okay what's happening what's

happening in the economy but I think

that by the end of the first quarter I

think that they're going to see some

meaningful economic slowdown data

coming through and I think at that point

is when we're going to start seeing some

of the rate cutting now the FED has

essentially said in their projections

that they're going to cut rates three

times this year the markets are

assing that the FED is going to cut

rat Ates more than that perhaps six

times it and and maybe even more than

that I will pull up here oh this is

interesting I'm going to share my

screen real quick if you're on YouTube

you can you can see this hold on let me

see if I can do

this All right what I'm going to share

with you guys is the the 10 year

yield

data see if I

can okay I think I I think I shared it

with you

well hold

on I apologize for this let's try this

one more

time there we go all

right the tenear yield is one of the

things that we look at in order to

determine what's happening with rates

and the the 10-year yield kind of has

been fluctuating dramatically based on

what the Federal Reserve is saying so

this is where we're kind of seeing what

how the markets are responding to the

Federal Reserve if the Federal

Reserve seems like they're making more

Cuts we see the 10 year yold go down and

then that makes the 30-year fixed rate

mortgage go down well the as I'm

recording this is December 27th I'm

recording this the yield is at

3.79 4 right at this moment that's crazy

that's that's the lowest that it's been

since July okay and you can see if

you're looking on YouTube you can see it

looks like we we've kind of formed like

a a mountain sort of dynamic where

this number got all the way up to

4988 in just October of of this

past year of 2023 and then it has

been gradually on The Descent since it

basically kissed 5% on the 10e year and

now we're all the way back down to

3.79 and that has had a dramatic

impact on mortgage rates if that's what

you're wondering let's pull up what

mortgage rates are doing in response to

this currently they're at

6.61% they've been hovering basically

around 6.6 to

6.7 for much of the past week or

two and that is a big relief for people

as opposed to what they had been

experiencing where it was near 8% for

for several weeks and so that's

something that we need to track but I

think what's going to happen is I think

that the FED is going to begin cutting

rates in in the second quarter of 2024

and I think that they think that they're

that they need to cut rates more than

three times and that's why the market is

assing that they will here's the thing

the FED couldn't say they couldn't come

out and say we're going to cut rates six

times in 2024 we're to cut rates eight

times in 2024 they couldn't say that

because if they said that the market

would have gone Bonkers right they put

out in their projections that they're

going to cut rates only three times and

the market immediately went went Bonkers

in terms of how people approach

bonds and even the stock market as well

even crypto has been bullish for

those of you into crypto not not me I

do own some crypto but I'm not I'm not a

crypto Bow by any stretch but long

story short the the FED did what they

had to do they had to they wanted to say

that they were going to cut rates but

they wanted to to say it without going

crazy and so essentially what they've

been broadcasting is that they're going

to cut it three times but I think they

believe that they're going to do it more

but they couldn't say that they were

going to do it more because then the

markets would have swung so far in

the opposite direction that it it

could have actually hurt what the Fed

was doing and forced the FED into

raising rates even more which they

certainly don't want to

do so that is my bold prediction number

one we'll have to wait for April May in

June see if those are the months where

the First Fed rate cut comes into play

of the year and that will be very

interesting bold prediction number

two a lot of you guys are going to be

excited to hear this doomers not so

excited if but hopefully I don't have

too many doomers listening to or

watching the show because I don't really

care for the people that are just always

looking for a recession but I am

predicting this year that there will be

no recession in 2024 I think that the

Federal Reserve is going to be able to

say that they achieved what they've been

calling the soft Landing what is the

soft Landing basically the soft Landing

is inflation coming down without a job

loss

recession now you could argue well

there's other recession indicators yes

there's other recession indicators but

in this post pandemic environment

really the job loss element and the wage

growth element those are the two things

that I think are the most important

things to look at and I think that's

what most economists and analysts

Market analysts are looking at as well

and I think that we're going to have no

recession we're we're going to look back

and say that wasn't a job loss recession

that wasn't a wage growth recession we

had no meta recession I've been saying

the housing market has been a recession

now for about a year and a half that

is still true to this day but talking

about the broader economy I think that

we will achieve a soft Landing in 2024

and we'll look back and say that really

a remarkable thing was accomplished by

the FED regardless of what you think

about them you could say they they put

us in this mess I think there's some

accuracy to to that statement but to

get us out of this mess was never going

to be easy and so far it seems like

they have done the right thing I'm

predicting there will will be no

recession in the year 2024 I also think

the fact that it's a presidential

election year I think that that does

factor in like it or not that does

factor in I do think that if there

were indicators in the economy that a

recession might be coming then I

think that probably Congress would start

to get more aggressive in terms of

trying to do things in addition to

what the FED is already doing maybe some

kind of stimulus or something like that

stimulus package I could 100% see

that happening in an election year so

all of those things combined I say we're

not going to have a recession I thought

we would have a recession in 2023 didn't

happen so I'm going to say you know what

the economy today is not what the

economy was in 2019 what the FED is

doing today doesn't impact the economy

in the same way it would have in 2019 I

think that we're going to experience no

recession in 2024 now maybe that'll be a

can kicking kind of thing where we will

see it in 2025 I don't know but for

right now what I'm seeing I don't see it

in the data for 2024 bold prediction

number three I believe and and okay when

I first started writing these bold

predictions I first started doing this

in in December like early early

December of like the the very

beginning actually I may have started

working on this in late November

mortgage rates were in the sevens

when I first wrote this since then

they've come into the sixes so this

isn't as bold of a prediction as I

thought it would be when I first wrote

it because it was pretty bold when I

wrote it but my prediction

nonetheless is that morgage rates will

spend the entire year in the sixes as

measured by the website mortgage News

Daily that's the website that most

people are using for tracking what the

30-year fixed rate mortgage is doing I

predict that it will not go out of the

sixes the entire year it won't go into

the sevens and it won't go into the

fives this

one again it could very easily swing in

either direction I think it's a lot

easier to see it swing in the direction

of going into the sevens than is to see

it swinging towards going into the fives

as I said as I'm recording this it's

6.61 and so there's a lot that would

have to happen for it to go into the

fives but but it has been coming down

so we'll have to see but my

prediction is that we will not see it in

the sevens or the fives the entire year

it will remain in in the sixes on

average now there's still rate buy down

options for buyers out there if

you're if you're wanting to have a

seller buy down your rate you have that

option at your disposal at something you

can negotiate and not just with new home

builders you can do that with any home

that's on the market but in terms

of averages without Ray buy Downs I

think that they will remain in the sixes

how about let's talk about prediction

number four

inventory there's a lot right now when

when you start looking at if you guys

want to go on you know housing Reddit

or housing

Twitter again a lot of doomers out there

and they are ready for inventory to

spike they're ready for the housing

market to just be to just have a glut of

new real estate come into it I've got

news for you I don't see it we are very

close to pre-pandemic levels we've

talked about this the past couple of

months we've been inching up closer to

prepandemic inventory levels so this

one is a bold prediction and and I'm not

confident with this at all but I'm going

to make the prediction anyway that

inventory will remain below pre pandemic

levels for the entire year only a few

hundred homes coming on the market

away from this prediction being wrong

but I I do see in the data I think we'll

continue to have suppressed inventory

and I think demand will bounce back

before Supply does and I think that

with these lowering mortgage rates I

think we we're probably going to see in

the first quarter more demand coming

in than Supply coming in and so my

prediction is that inventory is going to

remain suppressed and is going to remain

the low lowest not the lowest that we've

seen since the pandemic but lower than

we've seen since the pandemic happened

let's talk about pending sales right

pending sales when a home goes under

contract in a given month and I'm

predicting that pending sales for the

first quarter will be down year-on-year and

on the flip side though will increase

probably slightly for the remaining

three quarters so we're going to see

pending sales take a year over-year

decline in the first three months of the

year and then after that I think we're

going to see a year on-year

increase for pending sales for each

following quarter so this is not a

monthly thing that I'm going to be

looking at I'm going to be looking at

this on a quarterly basis I think what's

going to happen is the first

quarter is still going to be playing a

little bit of catchup and if you

remember pending sales of last year

really was strong in the month of I

believe it was March I think that

probably what's going to happen is we're

going to see that stronger second

quarter this year and then we'll see

that after the second quarter we'll

see the third and fourth quarters where

it was pretty you know on a meta level

pretty slow in terms of pending sales

here in the upstate because of those

again those mortgage rates going up

around 8% and so what I think is that

the the final three quarters of the year

are going to be probably pretty pretty

strong in comparison to what they were

in

2023 and I but I think that the first

quarter of 2024 will probably be

similar but a little bit down in terms

of pending sales from the first quarter

of

2023 let's talk about days on Market

when we look at homes one of the and and

what the market is doing one of the key

things we look at is how many days on

Market are we seeing on average how how

long are homes sitting on the market

before they go under contract I was

wildly off with this prediction for

last year but I'm going to try again

this year and my prediction this year is

that days on Market won't go above 60

for the entire year that is my

prediction I believe last year I

predicted hold on let me let me look at

this I predicted that it it would

come in at or above 70 I I didn't make

that exact prediction but essentially

what I predicted was that we would we

would get days on Market at or above 70

that we didn't even come anywhere

close to that and I again I don't see

the Dynamics being much different this

year I see this housing market being

similar in a lot of ways to last year

unless we see rates go into the low

sixes high fives I think that's when we

could see a lot of demand start to enter

into into the

market but I don't see Supply increasing

enough for days on Market to go up above

60 I think it's going to remain above 60

days for the entire year of

2024 on a monthly basis okay number

seven bold prediction number seven I'm

predicting that the number of single

family closings will rise slightly for

2024 versus 2023 I think somewhere

between 0 to

3% this is in contrast to many of the

national experts that are expecting

there to be National decline in single

family closing so I believe in the

Greenville Market we will see a slight

increase even if we possibly see a

decrease nationally but I don't think

that the increase will be that big I

think it will be between 0 to 3% in

terms of how many closings we have in

the Greenville Market inventory is still

suppressed demand is still you know it

we'll probably go up a little bit this

year but it's not going to go up so

much that that we're just going to

going to see closing Skyrocket I think

we'll see a slight increase in closings

year on-ear in the Greenville Market

that's for single family what about

multif

family I think that we will see multif

family sales in Greenville MLS and

that's an important distinction right

because there's a lot of multif family

sales that happen outside of of the

multiple listing service okay but I

am a residential realtor not a

commercial realtor so I am looking

mostly at MLS when I'm looking at these

types of things and and in Greenville

MLS mostly it's small multif family

right duplexes by and large Sometimes

some triplexes or quads Sometimes some

small mobile home parks or small

apartment buildings or things of that

nature will pop up in there but we've

never ever in the history of Greenville

MLS had more H have gotten to a 100

closings in a single year in multif

family sales I think that this is going

to be the year that it happen happens

and I want to show you guys something

and again multif family in in MLS is

not the same as when you see data about

you know just multif family in general

it's not one toone type of comparison

nonetheless I do want to show you guys

something I found interesting multifam

serious delinquencies in other words

multif family that has 90 plus days

in foreclose

is at its highest point since 2012 we're

now at and it's these numbers seem

really low basically

0.25% of multif family loans but

historically speaking that's very very

high that's like I said that's our

highest since

2012 and so it's going to be

interesting now a lot of these multif

family properties that are in

delinquency our our bigger multif family

right bigger than what Greenville MLS

would have nonetheless I think that

this is going to have a trickle down

effect remember a lot of multif family

properties have mortgages that aren't

30-year fixed rate mortgages and so

people have to refinance those mortgages

and after they have to as they have to

refinance them they might be refinancing

from a 3% to a well probably not 3% but

maybe like a 3 and a half 4% up to a 7 7

and a half% because it's going to be

more than what your owner occupant

30-year fixed rate mortgage on a single

family home is going to be so if

we're at 6.6% for that you know for to

purchase multif family that you're not

living in you're probably a tad higher

than

that but we're seeing some some

Rblings in in what's happening in

Nationwide in multif family I think

that's going to continue here we can

came really close this year so

through December 26 so through yesterday

we had 92 multif family sales for this

year last year was 95 the year before

that was 92 so we've been knocking on

the door of 100 I think we're going to

get there this year and I don't think

we're just going to like ring the bell

of 100 I think we're going to surpass it

perhaps even into the 110s something

like that and and and I think that

we're just going to see more and more

people offloading their multif family

properties because they're not

performing the way they thought they

would they overspent they they can't

refinance whatever the case may be

prediction number nine I'm predicting

that foreclosures and foreclosure sales

for single family specifically will

increase slightly but remain well below

pre-pandemic

Norms remember as we've kind of

already discussed in in previous

episodes Co borrowers have a lot more

options than ever before to ensure that

their delinquencies don't turn into

foreclosures and to ensure that their

preforeclosures don't result in them

just losing a home outright not to

mention that people have so much equity

in their homes that they can usually

sell before going into foreclosure the

only exceptions are the people that you

know maybe purchased the past year if

they overspent the past year in

Greenville they might be in trouble I

see some data you know in some other

markets where you know properties that

were bought a couple years ago for

700,000 are now selling for half that

we're we've not seen anything close to

that in Greenville we didn't even see

anything close to that in 200 between

2008 and

2012 but we will see I think a slight

up uptick in foreclosures but they will

still remain very very low historically

and I'm going to pull up another chart

for you guys here if you're watching on

YouTube I've got two actually to show

you so we'll start with this one

mortgage delinquencies and

foreclosures by period past due so if

you're looking at the video for this

we've got in purple or blue 30 and

60-day delinquencies and then in yellow

90 days and then in red properties

that are actually in the foreclosure

process and if you look at that red

what's in the foreclosure process

it's about the lowest on here I mean

there are a few that were slightly lower

but it's not not very much that has ever

been lower not very many months or years

that we've ever had lower than 2023 I

think that's going to continue in the

2024 and if you look at all of them

combined it's also what the third lowest

ever all time and this chart goes

back to 2002 so that's what we're

classifying as all time but

mortgage delinquencies and

foreclosures for

2023 insanely low and I think that

that's going to continue we'll see a

slight increase in 2024 but it's not

going to be so much of an increase that

is going to dramatically shift

anything you know in the market as a

whole here's another chart for me to

show you guys distressed property sales

Trends and what I find interesting about

this is you've got the bank-owned

sales foreclosure auction sales and

pre-foreclosure

sales so the bank owned sales and the

Foreclosure Auction Sales those are

actual foreclosures and so this data

only goes back to 2022 because we

don't have the 23 data yet and these are

just annual this these are just

annual charts but 2022 was second

only to 2021 in terms of low foreclosure

sales and what we're seeing is in recent

years we've seen an uptick from 2019

in pre-foreclosure sales okay so a big

increase in pre-foreclosure sales what

does that mean that means people are

selling their home before they really

get underwater and so they they start

missing a few payments they they find

themselves a little bit underwater

that's okay I've got tons of equity in

my my house I'm just going to sell my

house get out from under and then go

rent or stay with a family member or buy

something a lot

cheaper and so this is what's happening

this is the new normal and again you for

some of you listening are probably like

well that that that's common sense I

already knew that was going to happen

listen you go on Twitter Reddit Tik Tok

people are not saying this right it it a

lot of people out there are saying we

are going to see an influx of

foreclosures all these airbnbs are going

underwater all these apartments are

going underwater we're going to see

foreclosures worse than what we ever saw

in the Great Recession that is there

are more people saying that than there

are people saying what I'm saying which

is that forclosures and foreclosure

sales will only have a slight increase

but will stay well below pre-pandemic

Norms so this is a bold prediction

even if you're listening and you're just

like oh I already knew that you're just

more well informed than the rest of the

and probably some of that is because you

listen to my podcast which I appreciate

you guys doing not to be too

braggadocious here all right bold

prediction number 10 I saved I don't

know if it's the best for last but I

saved the thing that people tend to be

most interested in for last and that is

prices you guys know when we're

measuring what the market is doing the

main thing we look at in terms of prices

is the median prices and I'm predicting

that the median prices in Greenville MLS

as measured by the greater Greenville

Association Realtors Will Rise by 3 to

6% for the entire year of 2024 so I

think after we look at 2024 in a

nutshell we'll see that prices raised by

roughly 6% right now for

2023 I we don't again have the

December data yet but it's looking like

it's going to be around 3% for the year

for 2023 I'm predicting that will be the

minim the 2024 seases sees I think

we're going to see between 3 to 6%

increase in the median sales price which

is Loosely correlated to appreciation so

you can it's you you wouldn't be

inaccurate to say that what I'm

predicting is that homes will appreciate

and value by roughly 3 to 6% for the

entire year of 2024 although I will say

I think we may see some negative

month-on-month prints right which is

not uncommon we may even see a few

year- on-year prints that are that

are in the the negative but once we take

the entire year right after we get to

the end of 2024 we take the entire year

I think we're going to see appreciation

excuse me on the on the end of 3 to

6% for those medi prices so

that's it those are my 10 bold

predictions for 2024 I'm curious to hear

if you guys have any bold predictions or

if you agree or disagree you can let me

know with my contact information in the

show notes please make sure you don't

miss out on the giveaway that I will be

doing that I'll be announcing for next

episode listen to the previous episode

from this one if you want to hear how

to get involved with

that but you can find all of my

contact information in the show notes if

you need to reach out to me for any of

your real estate needs and just REM

remember as always you don't want to

miss future episodes of this I mean I've

got a lot of great content coming for

you guys in 2024 so please subscribe

rate review you do all of those wonderful

things I hope you guys again had a

wonderful happy New Year here's to a

fantastic 2024 and we will talk again

next time