Hello everyone and Welcome to another

episode of Selling Greenville your

favorite real estate podcast here in

Greenville South Carolina I'm your host

as always Stan Mccune I'm a realtor right

here in Greenville, South Carolina, you

can find all of my contact information

in the show notes if you need to reach

out to me for any of your real estate

needs whatsoever in Greenville even

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as many people as possible today we

are going to be talking about the

greater Greenville Association of

Realtors Market stats and I knew this

would happen I actually called it last

show which was I said that as soon as

the episode was

over as soon as I recorded last

week's episode that almost certainly

that the Market stats would come out

right away after I did that and sure

enough within like 48 Hours of me having

recorded that sure enough the

Market stats came out it is what it is I

don't know why it takes them so long to

to produce the market stats that they do

but it is what it is so I'm recording

this on January the 19th these stats

just came out a few days ago we finally

have the end of nbers for what

happened in the Greenville market and so

if you're on YouTube you are going to

see these charts that I'm about to share

with you these

are basically fresh off the press maybe

someone else showed them to you

because again unfortunately I had

already recorded something for this week

I'm not going to record two things or

I'm not going to release two recordings

in the same week but we're just going

to start straight up at the top there's

a lot of interesting things in the

data for now we're going to start right

at the top with new listings the new

listings data for the month of

November it was up 15.6% year on-ear and

and I believe we discussed this when

I discussed this last time and they've

even revised that nber that's a little

bit up from what it was when

when I went over this last month but

that was a very big nber we hadn't had

new listings data year on year make that

sort of a leap in a very long time

the month of December was also in the

positives we had an

88.7% year-on-year new listings data

so we had 1,40 new listings that was up

substantially from the 957 that we had

in December of

2023 and so sorry December 2022

and so a nice little 88.7% increase

on new listings now here's what's

happening okay here's what you need to

think about when you think about supply

side data supply side data in real

estate tends to be accompanied by demand

side data as well so as we have new

listings often times it's not one:

one but maybe it's I don't know 08 or

0.9 to one that for every new listing is

a new buyer as well so as we're seeing

Supply going up like this in terms of

new listings that's an indicator that

demand is also Rising perhaps not at the

same rate as Supply at least not when

we're specifically looking at supply

side data but it's safe to say if the

supply side data increased by 8.7% odds

are the demand side buyers out there

increased by a pretty comparable level

now this new listings

data is still historically relatively

low I mean it's not as low as I already

said as December of 2022 was but we

it was lower than every other year

until we get to 2019 so still again on

the supply side of things inventory

extremely low what about pending sales

this is one of those nbers that's

always wrong for the most recent month

so we're going to look at November

November 1,34 pending sales this is the

count of properties on which offers have

been accepted in a given month what does

that mean that was a

4.8% increase year on-ear that makes

it one of only three months in the

year of

2023 that we had a positive pending

sales nber for the month of November

now I suspect that the month of December

will also end up being positive when

it's all said and done year on year and

and by the way I should because this

is now we have a full year of data I

should mention the percent change for

the year we're going to talk about this

for all of these as well sorry I

skipped ahead of myself for new listings

for the year it was a 1.8% in

decrease on new listings for each

month of

2023 on average right so on average

when you average all 12 months together

for the year 2023 it was a 1.8% decrease

in new listings from 2012 I meant to

say that as far as pending sales data

goes again we won't really know what the

exact 12month nber is until the

January statistics come out in February

because the pending sales nbers are

frequently inaccurate but I suspect that

the pending sales in December will

probably be revised to around 900

which December 2022 was

817 and so that would be a decent

little increase year on year that

would be you know potentially like a a 5

six 7% increase in pending sales so

we'll see where that goes still again

the where these pending sales nbers

are

hitting is still pretty low relatively

speaking again the quadrant where we're

at or the or the spot on the graph

that we're at it's it's still low these

nbers are all depressed by these

interest rates being where they are we

have stabilization though and this is

why we're finally starting to see some

of these nbers in the positives

year-over-year

closed sales this nber is usually

pretty accurate and this one's a very

interesting one so closed sales was in

the negatives year on year so we had a

negative

1.4% increase or a 1.4% decrease year on

year year from December of 22 so it went

from

1228 closed sales in December of 22 to,

11 closed sales in December of 23 that's

pretty that's pretty close what has

interested me though is we had a very

rare time where we had a closed sales

increase month on month this time of

year very unusual and if you're looking

at the the chart you can see how we

have this little v-shape happening

here at the end of the year you'll

notice that you don't typically see that

last year big drop off from November to

December the year before that big drop

off from November to

actually I'm sorry I'm looking at this

wrong we actually this is the January

line so we've got to see where the

January closed sales come

out so actually I completely misspoke

on that it followed the normal Trend it

just wasn't it actually wasn't as big of

a jump from November to December as we

normally see I actually came prepared to

discuss that and then I just my brain

went somewhere else where I was going

to say is that actually the increase

from November to December wasn't as much

as what we normally see but what I'm

actually interested to see is the early

returns for January is that we're having

quite a bit of activity in January and

and because we had that our I think our

pending sales nber for December is

going to be revised to a higher nber

than what we saw in 2022 we actually may

see a a reversal in the trend where

we typically see a big drop off from

December to January I think it's very

possible that we end up seeing either

a small drop from December to January or

you might actually see January actually

be a little bit higher than December

probably unlikely it's probably more

likely that it's going to be follow the

normal seasonal Trend but I don't

think the seasonal trend is going to be

as extreme as we normally see because

from what I've seen so far again

anecdotally it's not in the data yet but

what I've seen so far is that January

has been pretty strong now here's a very

interesting one for December the days on

Market until sale this is one of the

markers that we look at very closely

and I had discussed about how at the

beginning of the the first quarter of

2023 days on Market until sale went

really high up but that at least

the the Baseline that we're starting

from now is a lot higher than what the

Baseline was last year so December of 23

the days on Market until sale hit 52

that's the highest nber that we've had

since April of the past year we spent

almost the entire year in the 40s and

30s we only had a few months that had

days on Market in the 50s and that 52

nber was up substantially that's a

20.9% increase from December of 2022

when it was 43 days so this is very

interesting right because I thought days

on Market until sale was going to be

higher for

2023 well when I made my bold

predictions I accounted for the fact

that I thought that that days on

Market in 2023 was going to be higher so

I was more conservative on that nber

for

2024 but at the moment we're starting

at a much higher level we're starting

the year at a much higher level than

what we did last year and I think that

what we're seeing is you know as

inventory was low we're seeing a lot of

these homes that have been on the market

for a very long time start to get sold

so this very old inventory is

starting to get absorbed in the

market and as that old inventory gets

absorbed then this day on market nber

is going to go up so we may end up

seeing this nber really go

substantially higher it's already

pretty much in line with you know

historically

what you would see now for this time of

year for the end of a year for it to

be where it is is still a little bit

lower than what we' normally have but

if we see days on Market start to go up

we could very well see it revert back to

what the pre-pandemic Norm was and

I'll say this I was just telling someone

this what the market feels like to me as

I'm just out there helping my clients it

feels like 2017 2018 that's exactly what

it feels like to me where it was sellers

Market but you know it would take a few

weeks for something to sell even a

property that was in really good shape

and buyers backing out regularly we're

seeing a lot of back outs happening

right now so these types of things are

happening again it reminds me of of 2017

this is the way the market was back

then 20 2016 2017 2018 sellers Market

but just not a very hot sellers Market

buyers being fickle that's exactly

what we're experiencing right now and

that's being reflected in this days on

Market data in my opinion the days on

Market by the way the 12-month average

it was up

70.4% year on year and that's strictly

because in 2022 we just had some of

those low low months where like June of

22 18 days on Market July 19 days on

market like for that to be the average

for the entire Market is insane that

just meant back then that we just had so

many homes that were that were

selling you know after being on the

market for zero days or just one day

and then everything else was being sold

within 30 to to 40 days which is still

historically very quick so this is what

we're seeing we saw a big increase

for the year but that really started to

taper and that December print even

though it was it was a 20.9% increase

year on year that's still the lowest

increase year on- year that we had the

entire year of 2023 and we've now had

We've now had let's see here

one whoa we got to go way back 1 two 3

four five six seven eight straight

months of of that percent increase being

lower part of that is that the days on

Market until sale haven't gone up as

exponentially as perhaps they could

have been but then also we're now

comparing against months where those

days on Market we're starting to to

already go up so we're starting to

bridge the gap basically between

between now and a year ago because now

we're starting to compare data year on

year with the mark when the market was

still in this higher higher interest

rate environment so we're going to see

some of these nbers start to normalize

and some of these percent increases or

decreases start to either go away

or not be as dramatic of a difference as

they've been

median sales price this is obviously

something that we've been following

very closely it's kind of the

closest approximator that we have to

actually being able to determine

appreciation and I've been telling

you guys you know I think we're going

to end the year with pretty strong

appreciation relatively speaking right

because some of the country saw a good

bit of the country saw depreciation if

you're looking at the headlines right

now there's a lot of headlines right

now that are are talking about prices

going down all this kind of stuff well

guess what December 2023 the median

price for greater Greenville area was

315,000 a 6.7% increase from December of

2022 when it was at 295,000 so you

can look at this one of two ways either

we had prices go up by

6.7% for the year of 2023 or if you want

to take the 12month median which is

another way of doing it which is

basically looking at all 12 months

and then essentially aggregating those

then you would have a

2.9% increase for the year either

way we saw strong appreciation in the

Greenville Market I prefer that 6.7%

nber because that's more what people

are thinking about right they're

thinking about more okay prices in

December of last year were 295 they went

up 20,000 a 6.7% increase year on

year so here we go after all of this

after all the drama of 2023 and all the

speculation prices are going to go down

prices are going to go down prices did

not go down there was one month one

month where we saw an actual year

on-year decrease in prices and that was

May and it was a 6% decrease every other

month was in the positive and out of

all of the months three of the of the

most positive months three out of the

four most positive months were the final

three months of 2023 the only other

month that compares January had a 6.8%

increase year-on-year to the median

price point the median sales price

outside of that the three other

strongest months were the final three

months of the year October was 7.7%

November 3.1% December

6.7% so if that is an indicator it

seems like we might be in kind of a

launch mode here right if that continues

into the busy season which is what we

are about to enter right we're in the in

mid to late January as we enter February

that's when we start to see the early

Rumblings of the busy season by the time

we hit March we are in the thick of the

busy

season and so I'm actually a little

bit nervous about this I'm nervous that

we could we could hit double digits

again in terms of appreciation not for

the year but for some some months

and if that happens it's going to be

chaos so this is definitely something to

track but I think the headline is that

we saw a

6.7% increase year on year for the month

of December when it was all said and

done and if you take the entire year

together it was a

2.9% increase average similar we

had a 4.8% increase to the average I

don't put a lot of stock in that cuz

that fluctuates dramatically based on

how many very expensive homes or how

many very cheap homes are sold in a

month but for those that are

interested the average was

3.67 basically 367,000

500 roughly speaking which was a 4.8%

increase from 3

50,500 for December of 2022 and then

if you want to take the 12-month average

that was 4 point 4.2% increase so either

way you look at it we had

increases as far as the average goes

there was only one month where we had a

negative year-on-year average and

that was the month of March so again

slightly different than the median

but when we put them all together we can

see very clearly Greenville saw some

pretty strong price appreciation

for the year

2023 percent of list price received we

had the second straight month of a

positive year-on-year print again now we

are like I already said we're comparing

to months that and years that

were still in a State of Shock from

mortgage rates going up so fast so

high so fast and so we're we're kind

of comparing against the bottom here but

December the percent of Less Price

received which is the percentage found

when dividing a property sales price by

its most recent list price and then

taking the average for all properties

sold in a given month not accounting for

seller concessions December was

98.1% versus December 22 was 97.9% so a0

2% increase year-on-year for the

12-month average we saw a decrease of

1.5% no surprise the 12-month average of

2022 because the first s months of the

year were over 100% of list price

received

the entire year 2022 had a 12-month

average of 100% so sellers on average

were getting 100% of what they listed at

home for not including price

reductions or seller

concessions whereas for 2023 it was

98.5% that's a healthy nber right if

we're in the

98% that's completely healthy if

we're in the high 97s that's pretty

healthy

too where things start to get a little

bit dicey is if we start start to go

into closer to

96% right the last time we were anywhere

near

96% was in

2016 and then obviously the

slower markets pre 2016 the market was

decently slow and so really if

you're a seller you don't want to see

this nber go below

97% we' not been below 97% for for quite

some time right now we're sitting pretty

at 98.1%

housing affordability index this is

the nber where that we want to be at

100 from the standpoint of people

being able to afford housing if it's

100 that means the median household can

afford the median home given prevailing

interest rates we trended we

and we have been trending the past three

months in a positive direction so we got

to 90 for this nber in December now

that was not trending in the right

direction year on year but year on year

it's down 5.3% from the 95 that we had

in December of 2022 but that's to be

expected right because in December 2022

mortgage rates were lower prices

were cheaper so obviously housing isn't

as affordable as it was then but it has

gotten more affordable the past few

months and that is directly related to

mortgage rates getting better now we

have seen a little bit of a reversal at

least as of me recording this mortgage

rates kind of hit a little bit of an

artificial bottom and they've been

trending back up into the high sixes on

average again different people can

qualify for different things depends

on a lot of

factors but long story short I do

think unfortunately that when January

rolls around when those nbers roll

around probably this nber is going to

go back down below 90 simply by

virtue of mortgage rates having ticked

up a little bit hopefully mortgage rates

won't go back into the sevens that

would really put a damper on on

affordability for a lot of people I

predicted in my bold predictions they

wouldn't I predicted they would stay in

the sixes so I'm also hoping for the

sake of my bold predictions that they

stay in the sixes but we will we'll

have to keep track on that inventory

of homes for sale this nber is always

higher than it should be which quite

frankly is a little bit alarming okay so

November if you guys remember November

when the data came out last month it

said it was we had 4,000

55 Homes at the for sale at the end

of November they revised that all the

way down to

376 that was still a 5.2% increase Year

on-year

from the 3500 that we experienced in

November 2022 but what has me concerned

is that December 2023 was only at

3,726 now it's normal for inventory

to take a little bit of a dip towards

the end of the the year you can see that

as a normal line Trend but for

December to only be at

3726 I think that this is going to end

up being revised down to around

3,400 which is really low and I'm

seeing inventory this month really

seems to be coming down as well again

we'll have to track what happens when it

comes to these to to mortgage rates

and how you know mortgage rates going up

a little bit impact some things but

at the moment inventory Still Still is

trending below what we would ex what we

have as the prepandemic Norms and and

I think that this nber you know will

probably end up being closer to about

3,400 so a decent bit below the

prepandemic Norms of you know where this

time of year we would typically expect

to be a little bit closer to 4,000 maybe

3,800 maybe 3900 homes for sale but I

think we're going to be below 3500 after

this nber ends up getting revised

that'll still be a year-on-year increase

from the 3249 that we saw in December of

2022 but not a huge increase we have not

seen the huge inventory increases that

some markets have seen for instance I

saw recently San

Francisco is up 50% from their 2019

inventory levels that is insane like can

you imagine if our inventory

rather than than being down you know

roughly 10% 15% from 2019 imagine if our

inventory was 50% higher than 2019 like

we would be the market would feel so

slow if you're selling a home it would

be so hard to sell a home and we would

see some meaningful price declines at

that point we're not anywhere like

that in the Greenville market so

unfortunately the headlines are

dominated by those big cities like San

Francisco don't listen to those

headlines listen to this podcast we've

got the Greenville data here what about

month supply of inventory well this is

going to be inaccurate right because as

we say every month it's taking two

flawed nbers inventory of homes for

sale which is always wrong with the most

recent month and it's divides that by

the pending sales from the past 12

months which is also going to be

slightly incorrect on the basis that the

most recent pending s nber is not

going to be right

that being said it's this nber this

flawed nber is saying Greenville's

inventory is at 3 3 3.0 months

last month got revised from 3.3 so

November of 2023 got revised from 3.3

months of inventory down to 2.9 so it it

had

a04 months shaved off of

it so if that happens again for December

then we actually would be at 2.6 months

of inventory which would be just a tad

above what December of 2022 was which

was at

2.5% so we've been seeing this month

supply of inventory has been leveling

out year on-ear as well we saw we've

seen decreases in the percent change

every month since April right April was

100% increase in month supply then may

was 77% June was 33% increase July 19

% increase August 13% September 12%

October 11.5 November 7.4 and then what

I suspect is that December will be even

less than that I think it'll just be a

bare just a 0.1 increase which I don't

know what that comes out to as a percent

but definitely I guess that

would be probably around like 3 to

4% increase year-on-year so that will

be the lowest increase year-on-year in

month supply inventory that we've

seen in a very very long

time that's the end of of all of that

I'm not going to get into all of the

housing Supply overview that the GJ

provides for us if you guys are

interested in any of that like if you if

you're wanting to know if you know if

there's a certain class of property like

town homes or condos or luxury

housing that's doing better than others

sometimes we talk about that sometimes

we don't I'm busy so I don't have

time to discuss all that right now but

I'm happy to talk to any of you guys if

you're interested let me know my contact

information is in the show notes and by

the way just a reminder as always thank

you guys for listening right I just want

to remind you guys I do appreciate you

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guys we will talk again next time