Hello everyone and Welcome to another

episode of Selling Greenville your

favorite real estate podcast here in

Greenville South Carolina I'm your host

as always Stan Mccune realtor right here in

the Greenville area you can find all of

my contact information in the show notes

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you guys today we are going to be

talking about and I'm just going to jump

right in here the market stats for the

month of January that just came out last

week I didn't have they didn't come

out soon enough for me to post them

for last week's episode but they came

out now and there's a lot of interesting

things for us to look at here so I just

want to jump right in if you're watching

on YouTube or if you're interested in

seeing these statistics that I'm

about to show you you can watch it on

YouTube that's where you can see it

look up selling Greenville podcast

you'll be able to find it on

there but we're just going to jump

right in as always these are the greater

Greenville Association Realtors Market

stats for the greater Greenville area

these include Greenville and there's

also always going to be some Spartanburg

data in here there's always

going to be a little bit of of Pickens

County easily things of that nature

just because it is

Greenville greater Greenville doesn't

mean it's only Greenville so just keep

that in mind we're just going to

start right at the top here with new

listings data this out of everything

is one of the most shocking Prince

of all we had the most new listings in

January that we have ever had in any

January ever since these stats have

been published and have been have been

looked at we had

1,845 new listings in January to put

that in perspective that is one of the

highest prints that we've ever seen for

any month and usually January is a very

much a down month if you're looking

at the chart that I have that I'm

showing you guys on YouTube you can see

anytime there is a vertical line that's

January so you can see where we are

January of this year is comparable to

what like Peak summer months or Peak

spring months would have been in Prior

years so that is just a really really

shocking print we had a lot of people

list their homes for sale in January

of this year and and it's interesting

to see that right well we'll be

discussing a little bit of some of

those Dynamics why that might be

happening as the show goes on but that's

30.9% increase year-over-year January

2023 was

1,49 new listings which was

honestly a pretty big number for last

year but we're at 1,845 new listings for

the month of January this past year and

what has that done that has had the

result from what I have seen of

particularly the past few

weeks buyer activity on certain new

listings has really been slow right oh I

just realized I don't have my ring light

on I apologize for that I've been trying

to improve little by little the

video for you guys so there we go if

you're watching on YouTube you you just

got some an upgrade to your light here

but 1,845 new listings the result

of that is that some new listings

some old listings just aren't getting

activity because people have a lot new

fresh shiny objects that they can

look at a lot of new listings that they

can look at and so that's very

interesting not helpful for

sellers that you know listed their home

in early January or perhaps in

December that is not helpful that's

that's not helping you get your home

sold but that is just the way the

market is right now so it's just

something to keep in mind it's going to

be very interesting to see if February

has a massive print like this as well

but that was completely out of the

blue it doesn't surprise me I have more

listings than I normally do this

time of year and I think others do as

well obviously they have to right the

these numbers aren't coming from nowhere

and so very interesting to see that

number pop off the page pending sales

this is a number that's always

inaccurate for the most recent month so

we're going to look back at December

December saw a point sorry a 4 .8%

increase year-over-year versus December

of 2022 that's great for the most

part however January is going to be a

down month now again this data is wrong

it's saying we had 799 pending sales

which is a three 34.8% decrease

year-over-year from January 2023 that's

not accurate I believe that 799

number will probably get revised into

the 1100s once we have all these

numbers revised next month but that

will still put it as a negative year-

on-year print from January 2023 which

had 1,225 pending sales so I'm I'm

anticipating that that's going to be a

negative number negative pending sales

so guess what happens when you have a

huge spike in new listings and a

decrease in pending sales you have

excess inventory sitting on the market

and that can cause prices to go down

that can cause days on Market to go up

up that can cause a lot of things

that we might not necessarily see in

this data but we're probably going to

see in future data Clos sales this

number is usually accurate January

was up 13.3% year-over-year on closed

sales we had 878 closed sales as opposed

to 775 January 2023 again demand has

kind of stabilized but a lot of that

has to do a lot of that is just some of

the spill over from from from you

know November and December pendings that

have happened those end up getting

closed in January but it's good to

see such a big increase 13.3%

year-on-year again with pendings in January

being down as I'm anticipating that they

are I would not be surprised if we

have a negative print once once we

have February statistics come out in

the month of March we'll have to keep

an eye on that days on Market until sale

was flat month-on-month some of these

are helpful to look at from a month-

on-month standpoint and some from a

year-on-year standpoint and some from a

from both in this case days on Market I

like to look at both so we have a flat

number month on month December was 51

days on Market until sale January is 51

days just to clear up because sometimes

this is a confusing number this is how

how long an average home is on the

market until it goes under contract this

isn't how long it takes from the time it

comes on the market until the time it

closes right it it's usually going to be

another 30 to 45 days until it closes so

if your home is 51 days on Market until

it goes under contract then it's going

to be around 90 days until it actually

sells right from the time you list it

until the time you sold about 3 months

so this is at 51 days now if you

look historically this is low for the

January time period historically but

in terms of year on-ear this is up from

January of 2023 when it was 49 days so

our our days on Market are trending

higher right now as they have been

for a while but the increase year-on-year

is the lowest it's been in a long time

that's a 4.1% increase only a two-day

increase from 49 to 51 days year on

year and if you're looking on YouTube

you can see that's by far the lowest

year-on-year increase that we've had in

over a year the month of December was a

an 18.6% increase when we went from 43

days on Market in December of 22 to

51 days in December of 23 November

year-on-year was a 25.7% increase from 35

to 44 days October was a 31% from 32 to

42 September 48% increase from 27 to 40

days etc etc etc we even had a few

greater than 100% prints when we had

for instance the month of April of 2023

went up from 24 days on Market in 22 all

the way up to 54 days in 23 so we're not

going to see the a great percent

difference as what we saw in 2023 and

these days on Market numbers but I do

think we're going to see generally

speaking a higher floor for the days on

Market numbers so it's just taking longer

for homes to sell right now and part of

that again it's it's going to slow down

even more we might see this number Spike

a little bit in February based on all of

those new listings and the low pending

sales that happened in the month of

January so that'll be interesting to to

keep track

of now what how is this all impacting

pricing it's not impacting it a whole

lot at least not in a negative way

not yet okay that's very important

because there's a lot happening right

now so we're not exactly sure I

don't yet have a read on the room with

with how you know this year is going to

shake out just based on these

early first you know six-seven weeks but

January 2024 January of this year saw a

4.2% increase to the median sales price

it went up from

299,000 in January of 2023 all the

way up to

31,500 this past January so if

you're wondering what's the average

technically not the average technically

the median but we use the median it's

more accurate than an average

what's the typical sales price in the

greater Greenville area

31,500 it was that number in the month

of January and we've been kind of

bouncing around in the in the

300 numbers December was 315 November

was

313 and then the highest print we've

ever had was October 3

24,900 but we're seeing normal these

month-on-month fluctuations are normal

right the the thing that that stands

out the most to me is that 2023 we

saw very very modest appreciation on a

year-on-year basis for most months

and we even had the month of May last

year where the median sales price was

lower than it was in May of

2022 but we didn't have a single

month last year where the median sales

price went up year on year over 2%

sorry over 3% until we got to October

and then October was a 7.7% year-on-year

increase then November 3.1% then

December 6.7% then January

4.2% well what happened in October in

October mortgage rates peaked and then

they started to come back down and guess

what as soon as that happened we saw

prices start to go back up at a more

normal Pace 4.2% that's a pretty healthy

number by and large for the Greenville

Market we don't want to see median sales

prices going up 15 to 20% that's insane

when the Market's like that by and

large we also don't want to see

negatives that's bad for sellers

that can cause people to get locked

into their homes proverbially

speaking and so we like to see modest

appreciation is the best-case scenario

if we end the year at 4.2% I'd say

that's great really for everyone all

around in terms of buyers and

sellers alike and so we'll keep

tracking what's going on here but

again if we start to see inventory

trickle up that could have a damper on

these medium prices going up now what

about the average proper if you really

really are a sticker about this and

you're like you know what screw the

median I just want to know the average

the average was

378,000

averages are skewed by all of these

really expensive homes we have you

know several million doll homes that

have been selling recently so that skews

the average that's why I prefer the

median but if you're wondering it went

up from 352 and change in January 23 to

378 in change in January 24 and so

that's where we're at we've had a

a slew of positive average prints

year on-ear now for quite some time

and we also even had a

a month-on-month increase from

December average into January so that's

interesting as well although I don't

think there's a whole lot to to glean

from that percent of list price received

this is the percentage found when

dividing a property's sales price by its

most recent list price right so it

doesn't account for Price reductions

then you take the average for all

property sold in a given month not

accounting for S concessions so we're

not factoring in price reductions and

we're not factoring in sour concessions

such as is if they're paying for closing

costs things of that nature so with

those two things in mind we saw a 3%

increase year-on-year in the percent of

list price received December right at

98.1% which is historically right along

the norm so right now in terms of what

sellers are getting for homes that they

have listed it is very much

historically normal this is one of the

few numbers in all of this that we can

look at you know pre-pandemic and say

okay

where the market is right now is very

similar to where it was before things

got crazy 98% is right around where we

were hovering during the pre-pandemic

era now if you want to go way back if

you want to go back into the 2014's 2013

2012 it was down in the 94 to 96% range

but really since 2016 is we've

been at or above 98% and that's where

we're hovering right now December was

98.2% so we had a slight month-on-month

decrease but that is a pretty normal

seasonal decrease if you look at

at the chart that I have you can see

that there is frequently a January

decrease in the percent of list price

received things are just slower this

time of year generally U but year-on-year

a. 3% increase from the

97.8% that we were looking at in January

of 2023 and that's when things were

really slow excuse me January of last

year it was it was remarkably slow at

particularly the first half of the month

so not surprising that we saw some

some improvements there housing

affordability index not going to spend a

lot of time here housing affordability

stayed roughly the same we're at a 90

in the housing affordability index we

want that to be 100 100 means the median

household can afford the medium-priced

home given prevailing interest rates and

all of that mortgage rates have gone up

recently there is no way around it

we so I should back up for a second and

talk about this for a moment because we

talked about mortgage rates a lot the

past few months as we should we had

some very hot e like very unexpectedly

hot economic prints that came out

last last week and that sent the

10-year yield just soaring and if you

listen to my to my podcast where we

talked about the fed and the 10year

yield and how that affects the 30-year

fixed-rate morgage and how all of the

economic data impacts that as well

then you already understand how that

works hot economic data that would

potentially indicate that inflation

might not be going down as the FED wants

it to that's causing a selloff in

treasuries which then causes the yields

on Treasury to go up so the 10-year

yield now is much higher than it was

just a few weeks ago that has caused

mortgage rates to be sitting at least

according to Mortgage News Daily in the

low sevens now it's still much lower

than the eights when they were you know

when they hit the eight range in October

and again mortgage News Daily is also a

bit higher probably than what most

people are able to get out there in the

marketplace probably most people can get

a you know if they have good credit and

and all of that not a lot of debt

most people would probably be able to

get in the mid-sixes in terms of their

in terms of the mortgage rate

that they're able to to get from a good

lender but regardless rates are up

quite a bit from where they were a few

weeks ago and so that also drives this

housing affordability index so we have

we have medium prices going up over

4% year-on-year plus we've got mortgage

rates that went up you know about

a half a percentage point in just a few

weeks all of that means that we're

seeing this housing affordability index

kind of Flatline at the

moment and what we'd really like it to

do is to be over 100 that would be ideal

unfortunately that only happens if

mortgage rates are going to come way

down in my opinion because they have

mortgage rates have to come down so far

that it doesn't that you know when more

buyers come in the market because rates

are going down which happens every time

every time rates go down mortgage

applications go up we can see this in

National Data we can see this in the

local data but we need mortgage rates

to come down far enough that when that

demand spikes and then that causes

prices to go up at a faster clip than

4.2% year-on-year we we need the

the monthly cost to still be offset

Greater by the by the lower mortgage

rates I don't know if that made any

sense hard to explain but

basically we need mortgage rates to come

quite a bit down in order for this

housing affordability index to improve

inventory of homes for sale this is

basically this is another one of these

numbers that always gets revised and

it's always revised lower so it said

January's inventory was

3834 3,834 and that would have been a

whopping 24% increase when that gets

revised it's probably going to be around

3500 which is still going to be a very

big increase from January of 2023 which

was 382 so we're definitely seeing

inventory going up now December was

up as well but it was only up 5.9% so

we got the revised December number it

got revised to

3,440 let's see what that was revised up

from I'm looking at last month

stats so December before it got revised

it was saying

3,726 so it got revised down by over 300

down to

3,440 so probably January will will

do the same thing that's why I think

January is going to end up around

probably around 3,500 but again that's

still a big increase in inventory

over January of 2023 which was

382 so we're seeing inventory start to

pick up great news for buyers right

you've got more options than you have in

a long time we haven't had a January

print this High since pre-pandemic so

that is a positive if you're a buyer if

you're a seller not so great okay but

that's still that's still again lower

than what we were seeing pre-pandemic

so you can't complain too much if

you're if you're a seller right if if

you're selling a home right now and

or trying to sell a home right now and

you're not getting under contract then

it either needs work or it's just

overpriced like those this isn't a you

can't blame the market the market is

still a seller's market it's just not

nearly as fast or as crazy of a

seller's market as we've had some other

times the past 3 to four years month

supply of inventory which is take

taking the inventory of homes for

sale at the end of a given month divided

by the average monthly pending sales

from the last 12 months if you've been

paying attention you know that both of

those numbers are inaccurate and so

we can't base a whole lot of the

January number which is said 3.1 month

supply of inventory in December was revised

to 2.7 months which was up 8% 8% Year

on-year from the 2.5 months that we had

in December of 2022 um January probably

after this gets revised it'll be up to

2.9 is month's supply of inventory that's

still going to be a pretty big increase

from January of 2023 which was 2.4 so

again we are seeing inventory jump but 3

months of inventory is not much

inventory 2.9 3.1 whatever still

historically much lower than the

levels that we've normally seen in the

past which was you know pretty pre

pandemic we were typically bouncing

around the mid 3s to the mid fours

was typically you know where we found

things back then so we're still in the

high twos low 3es still historically

pretty

low that's all we're going to talk

about with regard to that I'm just

going to mention just kind of my

general sense for what's happening right

now the mortgage rates the

mortgage rate volatility has really put

a big damper on things for sure like

sellers are definitely feeling the

mortgage rate volatility that we're

experiencing right now sellers are

definitely experiencing the fact that

there are fewer buyers looking right now

so I think what I do think we're

still going to have a very busy spring

season and if I'm a seller right now

obviously you have to you have to

consider you know the feedback that

you're getting but if you're getting a

lot of showings from people but

people are just kind of nitpicking your

property consider what they're

nitpicking right if they're nitpicking

major things take care of those things

right if they're nitpicking things that

you can't control wait it out because

we're about to see a bunch of more

demand come into the market as we get

towards the end of this month and into

March that's when things start to really

pick up in the real estate World

everywhere in the US but in Greenville

for sure so just be aware of that

there's going to be both more Supply and

more demand coming into the market in

these upcoming weeks and upcoming months

and I think that that's going to I

think it's going to be a very busy

spring overall I suspect where

rates are right

now as where they're hovering you can

look them up I don't anticipate that

rates are going to make any major

movements from where they are right now

like I'd be very surprised if

according to Mortgage News Daily if

they go into the mid sevens that would

be very surprising if we saw 7.5 I

think they're going to stay probably

below 7.25% I guess I need to revise my

prediction that's not a prediction

that's just what I think is going to

happen just based on a variety of things

but you never know you never know if

we keep getting hot economic prints

there is not it it's not completely

outside the realm of possibility that

the FED could come out and say you know

we're going to raise rates again that is

not out of the cards now the FED has not

indicated that at all now what they

have indicated is that they want the

market to kind of do their work for them

they like to see treasuries to

higher and rates to be higher and all of

that without the FED having to increase

their rates they don't they don't want

the market pricing in a bunch of rate

cuts and the market had done that and

now the market has backed off of that

so I'd be pretty surprised if

you know unless we keep having a bunch

of a really hot economic data, I'd be

pretty surprised if the FED stated that

they that they intend to raise rates

but now we're we're very much at risk of

we might not even see a second-quarter

rate cut by the FED that's very much

I'm very skeptical of that right now

we'd have to really see I think a turn

in the data the data would really have

to start to show in March and April that

inflation is starting to go down and

right now

we're seeing some very mixed signals

on the data front and the fed's not

going to like that the FED wants to see

consistent data showing that the economy

is slowing down and that and

that inflation is also going closer to

their target of 2% so we got to monitor

that a a lot hinges on that for what

the rest of this year looks like we may

have a little bit of a delayed busy

season as a result you guys will be the

first ones to know it because I will let

you guys know so thank you guys for

listening that's all for today's episode

I appreciate you guys like rate review

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you need a realtor in the Greenville

area or you want me to refer you to a

realtor outside of the Greenville area s my contact information is in the show

notes we will talk again next time