Hello everyone and welcome to another

episode of selling Greenville your

favorite real estate podcast here in

Greenville, South Carolina, I'm your host

as always Stan Mccune I am a realtor right

here in Greenville and you can find all

of my contact information in the show

notes if you need to reach out to me for

any of your real estate needs just a

reminder as always please support the

show the only way I ask you besides

using me as your realtor is by hitting

that little subscribe button that's

the number one thing and then if you

could also leave a rating review like

comment whatever platform that you're

on might have different options so

please go ahead and do that today we are

going to be talking about a delayed

podcast here about the greater

Greenville Association of Realtors

Market stats that were released last

week but we had to do that podcast last

last week on the National Association

realtor settlement which was a very Hot

Topic at the time and so I had to delay

this episode longer than normal so

we're getting at the end of March the

Market stats that go through the month

of February and we're just going to jump

in and I'm not going to get too in the

weeds in general with these

stats because I want to talk kind of

more high level on a lot of the stuff so

I'm going to go through these perhaps a

little bit quicker than we have normally

new listings year on year up

24.3% and we've now seen several

months in a row in the positives

going back to October year-on-year

positives but we've now had two

straight prints above 1,800 new listings

which is very strong for this time of

year so that's great in general for the

market we need to have more and more new

listings I think what we're seeing is

just people that have to move right they

just have to move they have waited

you know a couple of years now for for

rates to go down rates haven't gone down

down at least not for the most part

they're hovering you know High sixes low

sevens on average people can get

lower than that in in

theory but here's what's happening

we're the backlog the dam is

starting to break as it were that's the

way I see it and we're seeing that in

inventory as well which we'll get to in

a second pending sales we talk about

this every time but I always have to

mention every time in case you're a new

listener the February numbers are always

low

they should always be much higher

so we have to look at the month prior so

January came in at 1,196 pending

sales that was a 2.4% decrease

from January

2023 not really super noteworthy

outside of the fact that we had had

several straight months of positives

until that January print now February I

also predict is going to be down a

little bit probably when this gets

revised the February number will

probably be in the low 1200s

and it was 1282 in February of 2023

so that will probably also be

slightly down as well so again we are

still seeing demand much lower than

than we would expect right now and

these are again directly impacted by

mortgage rates being where they are

closed sales on the other hand we have

now seen two straight months a positives

and this number is usually accurate so

January was up 13.7% year on-ear

February up 11.9% year-on-year

1,151 as opposed to 1, 29 now I

find this to be quite interesting so

whenever there's a disconnect between

pending sales and closed sales in this

case we have pending sales going down

but closed sales going up we have to

stop and think what is the reason for

this why would there be fewer homes

going under contract but more homes

closing for a very long time we saw this

phenomenon happen because buyers

simply would not terminate contracts it

was so hard for buyers from you know mid

2020 through mid 2022 to get a home

under contract that when they finally

did they were not going to terminate

that contract I mean even if the home

really really needed a lot of work

inspections were terrible usually buyers

would still move forward and just try to

try to work it out

now we're seeing the opposite now

we're seeing sellers basically doing

whatever they need to do in order to

keep a home under contract with a few

exceptions those exceptions being you

know primarily if a seller you know

lists their home they get it multiple

offers right off the bat then they are a

little bit less amenable to you

know doing everything to keep

the contract that they had because they

know they could just relist it and most

likely get multiple offers again but

generally speaking that Dynamic here

we're seeing sellers having to be more

aggressive than they have in the past

days on Market until sale we have a flat

number 57 days on Market which is a

0% increase from the 57 days exactly a

year

ago and then if if that Trend

continues we'll see you know March go up

slightly and then we'll start to see the

numbers kind of recede throughout the

rest of year so this is going to be a

very interesting number to see right now

if you're a seller you can expect your

home to be on the market about 2 months

before it goes under contract again

that's an average that means some are

way more and some are way less than that

but this will be very interesting

to see I thought last year that we were

going to go over 60 days it didn't

happen we got up to 58 days in March and

then it it all started to fall back all

the way down to 40 days in September

I'm not sure if that's going to happen

this year I feel like we may go over

60 days but I'm not going to make that

prediction because I failed on that

prediction last year so we'll see

what happens but but we're

definitely seeing him staying on the

market in in several cases for

several months and I'll talk

about that I think here in a moment

median sales price we saw the median

sales price dip below 300,000 barely for

the first time since March of last year

so it went down to

299,900 but in case you're looking in

case you're wondering well what does

that mean well it doesn't mean a whole

lot because it's still a 3.1%

year-over-year increase from February of

2023 when it was 290,000 in change so

we're we still saw

3.1% home price growth from the

median year onye for the month of

February now I I want to clear something

up here okay because there is some

confusion when it comes to what's

happening with prices right now what in

any Market you have you're you're

looking at the metadata right that's

what this is this is metadata this is

consolidating data from all over the

upstate and a lot of different

neighborhoods a lot of different areas

the upstate is large you know I mean go

from West Greenville to tr to Malden to

Simpsonville you know even out to

Pickens out to parts of Spartanburg

County all of that is Incorporated in

this data and so you might be hearing

this WOW prices went up

3.1% but my neighborhood it feels

like prices are going down well that is

very possible it's very possible there

are going to be some neighborhoods that

are going to see prices drop there's

going to be some neighborhoods that have

seen greater than 3.1% appreciation just

depending on the neighborhood so this

number doesn't inherently mean every

single home in the greater Greenville

area saw 3.1% appreciation this is just

looking at where prices have gone which

quite frankly don't immediate there's

not an immediate correlation to

actual appreciation by just tracking the

sales price this just kind of tells us

the trajectory if the median sales price

is going up then generally speaking

homes are appreciating in this market

but it's not a guarantee that all homes

are appreciating it just

depends now what I am seeing personally

I'm seeing that there are some

neighborhoods that are seeing very

little appreciation if any and there

are some homes that for sure I can tell

you for a fact well I can't tell you for

a fact I can tell you for a fact in so

far as I believe it's a fact because I'm

in I do this for a living and I'm in

this Marketplace there are some homes

that that are on the market right now

that would have sold a year ago that are

not selling right now in this

environment and the where I've seen

the biggest impact is in the 300,000 to

400,000 price point that has been

really a very very challenging price

point to sell in this market I think

I've discussed this before but I'll just

mention it real quick the reason why I

think that's the case I think most

first-time home buyers can't afford a

a$ 300 to $400,000 home but at the same

time the median which we just discussed

which we're discussing right now is

300,000 so that is basically what the

average home cost in Greenville right

now is 300,000 but the first-time home

buyer can't buy that they don't have

enough money because of of rates being

so high at the same time if you're not a

first-time home buyer let's say you're

you're moving up you're buying your

second home you're buying your third

home you're not buying the median home

you're buying a nicer home so the $300

to $400,000 price point right now is

really a a challenging price point it

doesn't mean if you've got a home at

that price point it's not going to sell

just need to realize that what's

happening right now is very is very

difficult in that specific price point

I'm going to jump down here for a second

and just look at the closed sales

you can see that in the data right

closed sales between 250 and 350,000 is

down 7% year-on-year and the 350 to

500,000 segment is down

3.2% year-on-year that that doesn't

mean that there are not homes on the

market you can see I mean there's I mean

those two are two of the top price

ranges for homes to sell in but those

price ranges are struggling to see home

sales and you know below 250,000

struggling to see closing simply

because there's not a whole lot of homes

on the market at that price point

normally where we have the median price

point normally you would be seeing a lot

of homes being sold at that price point

and that's not what we're seeing now and

that's because of the the dynamic that I

I believe that I just described the

average sales price up 4.6% year-on-year

no surprise there the median and

the average are not they don't

exactly mirror each other but usually

if one is going up the other is going up

there there might be a you know a month

where where we have a year-on-year

decrease in one but not other but

usually they're pretty close to each

other if you want to know what the

actual average is in Greenville as of

February it's

357,96 increase

year-on-year now here's a very interesting

number here the percent of list price

received which is the the percentage

found with dividing a property's sales

price by its most recent list price not

taking then taking the average for all

properties sold and given a month not

accounting for salary concessions it

actually went up 6% year on year up to

98.4% in February and I have

personally seen this that I I think that

one thing is happening is that sellers

are starting to realize you know what

I can't just keep you know taking lower

offers and what's what's happening is

sellers are lowering their price right

because as I just read this is based on

the most recent list price and so

sellers are getting smarter about

listing their homes for a at the right

price point and they're getting smarter

about dropping their list price when

the time comes and is needed for that to

happen so that's something to just

keep in mind with regard to this

seeing a 6% increase up to

98.4% year-on-year that's a

substantial increase year onye so that's

definitely showing a shift in the market

if a buyer right now you can't expect

for a seller to be coming way down off

their list price just generally speaking

based on this data unless you've seen

the seller reduce the price on a home

then that's where your opportunity lies

but generally speaking sellers are

getting pretty close to what they're

asking

98.4% it's a pretty high number

historically you know it would be in

line and slightly higher than what we

saw pre

pandemic housing affordability index man

you know here I am in my hoodie in

case you're watching on YouTube I'm

I'm freezing today you know we had a we

had a classic false spring which we

always have in Greenville and now we're

we're back into you know second or third

winter and then we'll have probably

summer the end of this week but

but I don't know why I just brought

that up I thought you guys would be

interested in why I'm why I'm wearing a

hoodie CU I don't usually do that when

I'm recording this but I don't

know what to do with this housing

affordability index these numbers are

are constantly changing in like big ways

so right now it's saying February jumped

up to 100 but all the previous numbers

were revised 100 means that the median

household can afford the median

priced home basically so that's

great it's great to see 100 I'm guessing

these numbers are getting modified on

the basis of that that they look at

the median household income and so maybe

they get more accurate information from

the IRS or the Department of Revenue or

something like that and so perhaps wages

came in higher than expected and they

revised back all the

data but needless to say like I'm

just going to be completely honest

compiling this data right the

Greenville the greater Greenville

Association of Realtors they're going

to try to do they're going to try to

to get the most up-to-date data that's

going to get this number as high as

possible because obviously nobody

wants to hear that Greenville isn't

affordable but it sure feels

unaffordable to a lot of people right

now but the housing affordability

index regardless is 100 for the first

time since March 2023 at least based on

whatever revisions that they made

recently I don't know what to do with

that I probably won't even like really

talk about this much anymore but I

figured I would mention that because if

you're if you're a longtime listener of

this show you know that this jumping

back up to 100 is like whoa did not

expect that and so there there's

some kind of back math going on

on the back end, I'm guessing it has to

do with the median household income

inventory of homes for sale this is

another number that is always off

and it's off on the high side so

it's saying that inventory went up

35.6% year-on-year for February that's

not right so let's go back to January

which was revised down to

3,470 homes for sale that would

constitute a 12.6% increase from January

23 I suspect that February even

though the February number is high the

February number is still going to

come in much much higher than February

of 2023 which was

2957 February is going to end up in the

mid in the mid 3000s which is still

going to be a substantial increase from

that 2957 print a year ago so we're

seeing inventory starting to pick up

for sure for sure there there's no

question about it

and we're we're starting to get you know

don't look at this last dot if you're

watching on YouTube but we're starting

to get really close to the the

pre-pandemic inventory numbers so this

will be very interesting to watch

we haven't seen you know if we started

to get into the high 3es that's where

things start to get interesting because

that's where like I said we would be

kind of in a similar spot that we

were in 2019 at that at that point month

inventory not going to look at February

because again it month supply divides

two numbers that we know are wrong the

pending sales and the inventory of homes

for sale these are numbers that for the

month of February I just went over both

those numbers are wrong and the net

result is that this number is always

high so let's go back to January January

was a 12.5% increase went up to 2.7

months Supply over 2.4 month supply

the year

before that's to be expected

right demand has gone down supply has

gone up we are going to see month supply

of inventory start to creep up and I

don't know what this February number

will be revised to but I'm guessing High

twos and I'm guessing we be in the

threes very shortly unless demand really

starts to pick up and you know it is

busy like I I am quite busy right now

so when I say that demand hasn't you

know has to pick up it's relative to

the amount of Supply but these

numbers are still quite low historically

speaking you know we would really

want to see month supply more in the

fours that would be kind of more the

norm for what we've seen in the past

but let me tell you if we hit the fours

if we got into the fours it would feel

very much like a buyer Market I think we

need to start strongly taking that into

consideration because it didn't feel

like a buyer Market in 2019 but with

demand as low as it is I think that

if we had month supply of inventory

story all the way into the fours I think

that that it would very much feel to

everyone like a buyer's market at that

point so that's something to keep in

mind so that's all I'm going to say as

far as these stats go now I mentioned

before that my business has been

very busy and here's here's the

interesting thing the market right

now is very weird like I said it's

treating different homes very

differently and people are really

really picky in general we're seeing a

lot of showings a lot of second showings

a lot of people coming to open houses

but then not making any offers and I

just think that there's a lot of people

that really really want to move right

now but they just want the perfect

perfect thing to come on the market and

if your home isn't the perfect thing

and it's not priced aggressively you

could find yourself in a situation where

you're getting a ton of showings and no

offers we're seeing that market wide

right now it's very very challenging

to really predict what's going to happen

and so I am very busy right now

I've been clocking you know 12 14 hour

days now for several weeks and

that's not a complaint I'm happy to work

I actually just just took someone on to

to really help me with a lot of odd job

Tas s and things of that nature in

order to free myself up for my

clients to make sure that they have me

when they need me but not all

busyness results in getting paid I mean

as a realtor, a lot of busyness doesn't

result in me getting paid but that's

just the nature of the

business and this is just

something that happens we just have to

push through you know there are times

when it's slow there are times when it's

busy there are times when it's slow

but you're making money and there are

times that it's busy and you're not

making money right now this is a busy

time and I wish I was making more money

but I'm also grateful I had a

I've had a very strong first quarter so

far and it's looking like my

second quarter is going to be very

strong as well so I'm really grateful

for that grateful for you guys for all

my clients or past clients that are

listening you guys make this show

worthwhile and all of you that are

listening that that have not been

clients in the past I appreciate you

guys too I appreciate all of my

listeners anytime someone texts me

you know that I've not communicated with

in the past that says that they have

listened to my show I always am just

thankful I always just say thank you

thank you for thank you for listening I

genuinely mean that I genuinely

appreciate it and by the way if

you're one of those people that you want

to text me and want to say something

about the show or whatever my contact

information is in the show notes cuz

that's all that I have to say about all

of this so far I've got to keep running

like I said it's it's a busy day I'm

wearing the hoodie partially because I'm

cold but also I've got to like haul some

stuff today it's going to be crazy it's

going to be busy so my contact

information is in the show notes if you

need to reach out to me for any of your

real estate needs please like rate

review subscribe to selling Greenville

go on YouTube watch it on there let's

build that up I appreciate you guys we

will talk again next time