Hello everyone and welcome to another

episode of selling Greenville your

favorite real estate podcast here in

lovely Greenville, South Carolina, I'm

your host as always Stan Mccune joining

with me, co-host Joel Mangin, and this

is going to be a pilot episode for Joel

co-hosting as we discuss Market stats

in the Greenville area so I'm excited

for that but usual housekeeping that

we got to do first you can find all of

my contact information in the show notes

if you need to reach out to me for any

of your local real estate needs and I

don't know why you would need to reach

out to Joel but if you need to reach out

to him as well reach out to me and then

I'll connect you I'll connect you with

Joel I don't think you'll need to reach

out to Joel though but just a

reminder as always as well please like

rate review subscribe if you're

watching this on YouTube comment by the

way I I should mention as well

YouTube recently picked up

podcasts as a audio feature if it's

confusing if you're wanting to watch the

video for this there is a separate

track for the video it's all in my

same selling Greenville pod Channel

on YouTube I'm still figuring out

whether there is a way for me to not

have those be two separate entities I'm

not sure if that's a possibility but

there is now a separate audio and

separate video for every podcast on

YouTube so make sure that you actually

search for the video if you're wanting

to look at all the cool charts that

we're going to be looking at today but

as I mentioned before I have Joel

manin on the show with me Joel has is

a longtime friend also business partner

and yeah we go back a long way so

Joel welcome to the show thank you so

much Stan it's it's an honor to be

here thanks for the kind introduction

and I'm excited to talk about stats

so let's get it yes stats are so very

exciting and yeah I in case the

audience is wondering I I really felt

like you know this would be a good

opportunity to kind of mix things up

when it comes to this episode this is an

episode that I do every month the

greater Greenville Association Realtors

produces really great data for us every

single month but talking through data

sometimes can get boring sometimes can

be dry so I'm hoping with Joel maybe

this will make things a little bit more

interesting maybe mix things up a bit so

I'm just going to Dive Right In

here and we're going to dive right into

to the data starting with new

listings Now new

listings were there's a lot of very

interesting stuff when it comes to the

new listing data I just want to point

out a few things real quick first off

year on year for the month of April so

I'm recording this May

24th unfortunately we just got this data

just a few days ago so I wasn't able to

do this earlier so I apologize for that

that was just a quirk with one of the

data was released but we're looking at

April's numbers even though we're here

at the end of May so April's new

listings data was

2,226 new listings which was a a

whopping 27.5% increase year on-ear

that's like that's the the I mean that's

got to be the largest year- on-year

increase that we've had in several years

if you're looking at the chart on the

YouTube video you can see it is the

second largest month of new listings

that we've ever had following just

short of the I believe that that was

June of 2022 let me see January, February

March, April, May yeah that was June of

2022 and what happened in June of

2022 that was when the mortgage rate

started to go up and that was when it

became very apparent okay this period of

very very low rates is coming to an end

and so we had a tremendous Spike

that summer

and as it turns out April of this year

we had a semar spike so I don't know

what that means for the rest of the

year so far we'll have to see but a

really huge new listings number for the

month of mar for the month of April

2024 any thoughts you have on any of

that

Joel, yeah so I I noticed this is

really seasonal and that other high

watermark you just pointed out in 2022

seems you know anomalous when you look

at the other spikes so I guess my

question is what do you know are there

any factors that kind of led into this

was this a surprise to you or or can you

talk about that yeah this is a surprise

for me so if you're if you're

following real estate as closely as I do

you hear a lot of people talking about

the so-called lock in effect the

lock and effect is people that are that

have really really low mortgage rates

and can't move move in effect because

they would have to be getting going from

a 3% mortgage rate to a 7% rate

potentially or or something like that

and the result of that lock in effect

has been that we have seen the new

listings data from I mean if if you go

back to if you look at that peak in June

you can see that there was a precipitous

fall right this is if you're looking

on on video again here I'm pointing out

December of 2023 was the lowest new

listings number since December of

2018 so we had the lowest number of new

listings in five years in December of

2023 and then we had a very weird

Crown pattern that happened in sorry

that was December of 22 then we had a

really strange Crown pattern that

happened throughout the year in

2023 where we you know it just kept

going up and

down and so

where I'm going with all of this is that

we clearly saw a lock and effect that

happened during this period of time when

new listings data really really dropped

what it looks like is happening now is

that we're starting to see pent up new

listings demand happening so these are

people that need to move most people

that are sellers are also buyers these

are people moving by and large these

could also be investors deciding that

you know hey that investment I bought in

21 or 22 isn't working out the way I HED

it would and so what we're seeing is

we're seeing this new listings data

catch up to what it would have been I

think had we you know just kind of

continued with that lower rate

environment so a moment ago you said

pent up new listing demand that's new

listing Supply essentially

right so we need to think about

Supply and in two different ways so

okay and and this actually is is a good

point that you bring up because this

data can be manipulated by doomers to

try to make different points there is

active Supply and there is new Supply

active Supply is just any given time you

take a snapshot of the market how many

properties are for sale that is active

Supply new listings are what what we

look at basically over the course of the

entire month it's not it's not a one day

snapshot it is a month snapshot shot how

many new listings came online during

that month so so that's a really

important detail

because just because new listing

Skyrocket doesn't necessarily mean that

Supply skyrockets right because it can

be offset by demand if new listings

increase dramatically likely demand also

increases dramatically and that's

something we'll we'll talk about here in

a little bit so let's go ahead unless

you had any any other questions do you

okay let's go ahead and move no onto the

next one which is pending

sales so now we're getting into the

demand side of things pending sales

is the count of properties on which

offers have been accepted in a given

month and just a fair warning to

everyone warning that I always make

is that this Penning sales data is

always inaccurate for the most recent

month which is in this data April so

I'll come back to April here in a second

but we got to look at the March data the

March data was down pending sales were

down

6.3% year on-year it was 1,425

pending sales versus

1,521 in March of 2023 so that was a

minus 6.3% increase or 6.3% decrease

so that is something that I don't think

is particularly noteworthy we had had

several months of increases but those

increases had been going down so

November was 10 10.8% increase in

pending sales then December 9.8 then

January 5.8 February 5.4 and now we have

a a decrease in pending sales and and

the short reason for that and I kind of

prepped this before last month's

episode when we went over this was that

March was just a massive massive month

last year so we're comparing against a

really really massive month it's not

really as noteworthy as it would appear

that the ping sales for March of this

year did not meet the pending sales of

March of last year because March of last

year was really for by by 2023

standards was a bit of an anomaly of a

month and if you're looking at the Dot

Plot you can see that March and April

were neck and neck really hand inand but

those two months stand out last year

versus the rest of the year so so we

had fewer pendings sales fewer homes

going under contract March of last

year but I'm I'm not drawing any

major conclusions about that what that

means for the market as far as what

pending sales will shake out as for

April of of of this year since like I

said April the April data which

currently is saying only 967 pending

sales which would be catastrophic for a

a Greenville April that data is going

to be revised so last month thought that

March was 960 and then that got revised

to what I just said

1,425 April is projecting April is

currently showing 967 so that's probably

going to get revised into the mid 1400s

as well but that's still going to be

a decrease so we're still going to see a

year-on-year decrease April of 24 versus

April of 23 again those were two really

big months those were the only really

big months of of the year for pending

sales that we had Stan I have a question

on this what what explains the the

DraStic revision there I mean going from

900 to 1400 that seems like it seems

like more than just like we're waiting

on a few places to report that just

seems like a huge amount so what's

causing that that's a great question I

mean this is all coming from MLS data

and for whatever reason there's just a

few data points that that tend to be

inaccurate

and I I have no idea the all of this

data does get revised over over the

months like even the the new listings

data that we just went over like I

looked at March and and the the new

listings for March actually got revised

higher than what they were last month

when we were looking at this data so

this all gets gets revised it gets

updated but to be completely honest I

I would have to talk to the multiple

listing service in Greenville to figure

out exactly why you know we're talking

about like a 50% decrease in the pending

sales versus what they should be and I I

could I couldn't tell you couldn't tell

you because in in your experience it's

50% of homes under contract are not

dropping right I mean that that would

that's the one thing I can think of

where it's like oh you know somebody

pulled out where it was pending and then

maybe started at the end of the month it

was pending but then they pulled out I'm

sure that would would explain a

percentage but not the you know 50% you

just referred to so yeah just curious

about that yeah I I have no idea that's

actually something I plan to look into

because I'm actually now overseeing

the MLS committee as part of my

responsibilities with the board at at

the greater Greenville Association of

Realtors so that that is a role that

I just took recently and i' we've had

other other things going on with the

N settlements and buyer agency

commission compensation things but

this is this is my radar something that

I plan to to

address let's move on to Clos

sales this one is typically a pretty

accurate number it's the count of actual

sales that close in a given month April

was up 15.8% year on-year it was 1394

versus April of last year

1,24 now I've explained this a few times

closed sales and pending sales are kind

of tied at the hip right because

obviously it goes pending and then you

go through the whole process and then it

closes then it becomes a closed sale

and so this it shouldn't be surprising

that it was a a pretty high number

because we had several months to start

the year with increases and then that

results in in pending sales and then

that results in a in a big Clos sale

number this is still a bigger number

though than I would expect

15.8% this is telling me that probably

fewer homes fewer contracts than

than we have been seeing are falling

through so that's good if you're a

seller I have a hunch you know March

was down year on year I have a hunch

that we'll probably see a few months

that are kind of year on-ear you know

for instance May might be down year

on-ear and then we might see June up

year on year I think we're going to see

this kind of fluctuate a little bit

because last year was still not a normal

year year you know like the the Gap

from March to April in in closed sales

was much different than we would

normally have so I'm I'm expecting

that we're we're still kind of

normalizing when it comes to to these

close sales and and and what we're

likely to see is a few down months a few

up months with the net at the end of

the year probably will be U will be a

positive and and probably a pretty

strong positive year for for closed

sales versus 2023 is what I

think yeah out to me nothing stands out

to me too much other than when I just

kind of zoom out and look at the

historical data it seems like there's

you know 145 16 a really good

consistency in the way these numbers

move and what you just referred to kind

of feels like Echoes of you know covid

and and the whole disruption that's been

happening over the last few years so it

does seem like it's kind of trying to

normalize in a way but overall it's

still trending up which I find

interesting yeah and you know you can

see traditionally in most years June is

where the peak is and so it's you it's

usually a gradual gain up to that June

Peak and this is what we talk about the

the you know the hot Market if if you're

if you're looking at you know the graph

that I've got on on the video the hot

Market are the hot Market is these kind

of you know depending on the year four

or five months starting in usually

around April and then ending usually

around July so that's like the peak real

estate season but the peak of the peak

is actually through Memorial Day and

that's why most of the most of these

years the the Topline number that

we see is usually in June for closed

sales but if you're a seller and you're

listing your home in June you're not

going to experience that right because

we're talking about closed sales not

pending sales let's go back to the

pending data for just one

second the pending data you can see

oftentimes Peaks much earlier so this is

in 2018 it peaked in March in 2019 it

peaked in May and and and then you

know we've got some of these

anomalies you know after the pandemic

last year it Peak in April so

that's pending sales so if you're a

seller it feels busier during the Spring

than it does during the summer because

these closed sales you're not feeling

that if you're a seller right you're

feeling the pending sales that's where

the actual demand comes through and then

the closed sales kind of Lags from that

data so just a quick followup to that

Stan if I'm if I'm considering selling

in the next year should I just wait

until that you know spring of the next

year is it is it worth waiting to hit

that that Peak or or how does that

affect my

strategy I wouldn't say that you should

that you should wait I mean most

people don't have the luxury of just

waiting a year if you do have the

luxury of just waiting a year to move or

to sell that's certainly a

consideration but I don't think that the

seasonality of real estate should be the

only

consideration like I said these these

summer months still tend to be the the

the the peak months of the

year it's just that you've missed the

you know after Memorial Day you've

missed the the peak of the peak but that

doesn't mean that there's still not

good months to sell real estate in

generally speaking where where sellers

really start to feel things like feel

really slow and and particularly the

past couple of years is that fourth

quarter that's when we have really seen

you know that's when all those holidays

are coming through that's when all the

kids are in school all of that that's

when you really start to have to start

making difficult decisions do I really

want to put my home up for sale during

the fourth quarter when we know that

this is the slowest time of the year or

do I just want to wait another few

months and try to capture some of the

some of the spring wins of the next year

for me when when I personally am

selling real estate I don't I don't

personally factor in okay if I miss the

if I miss the memorial day deadline that

now I need to to wait until you know

March of of next year to me that's a

pretty extreme approach because

there's still a lot of demand to come in

the other thing is that we don't know

exactly how the the demand flows are

going to even play out this year because

we are still normalizing in this market

and you know just like I I just showed

with some of these some of the peak

months in the past four years have

been different than what they were in

previous years so could we see a

scenario in in which we have an A busier

than normal June or busier than normal

July absolutely we just we just don't

know we can only look at historically

and and make some some predictions we

know for a fact that some demand comes

out of the market after Memorial Day

how much of that it it's it's hard to

say I think I I like what you said

because I shouldn't be trying to

optimize you know and it's not like like

you mentioned not everybody has the

choice or the opportunity to optimize in

that way but it's more about finding the

best option with the best real estate

agent and the best presentation for your

home and for and for your situation

and that's what really matters on a

granular level whereas looking at this

data you can't really work backward from

it because this is just more you know

almost like random noise in a way

regarding and if you if you're looking

at it lens of one one person in real

estate like like the stock market this

of course isn't investment advice none

of nothing that we say in this podcast

is investment advice but real estate

like so many other things that are

classified as

Investments the same adage applies as it

does for other things you cannot time

the market you just you can't like

people try to to capture lightning in a

bottle by timeing the market it doesn't

work the market might crash next year

what if you hold out what if you say

well you know what I want to capture the

the spring you know business of next

year what if rates go even higher what

if we have eight and a half perc

mortgage rates and all of these numbers

are way down next year so that would be

again we have a known commodity right

now and the market is doing pretty well

overall for both buyers and sellers

you know it's not too crazy of a sellers

Market Market and it's it's not a

buyer Market at least not according to

this data but it's a slower sellers

Market than what it has been and so

I me personally I I would rather take

what I have now versus hope for

something in the

future all right moving on to the next

slide days on Market until

sale days on Market went down 11.1%

so we went all the way down from April

of 23 was 54 days on Market we went all

the way down to 48 days on Market in

April of 2024 so back down to the 40s

for the first time since November now

that great data if you're a seller right

you're selling your home more quickly if

you're a buyer that's not so positive

although 48 days is still substantially

better than what we were hovering around

20 for multiple years between 2021

and 2022

so it's it's interesting that

it's you know all of these Trends are

trending lower than what they were a

year ago and so even though I keep

hearing people saying that they feel

like the market is Shifting more towards

the buyer Market a lot of this isn't

captured in the data for a variety of

reasons I've been waiting I've been

waiting on this days on Market you

know these numbers to push back up to

what they used to be right because if

you look at pre pandemic we would

consistently have Peak months

typically at the beginning of the year

would end up being in the 60s or even

higher well we haven't seen the 60s

in quite some time we came really close

at the beginning of of

2023 I believe that that was hold

on let me see here yeah that was 58 that

we hit in in March of 2023 so we got

really close to hitting that 60-day

marker

but now we're back down into the 40s

so homes are still selling relatively

quickly in comparison to you know

historically what what has happened even

if it doesn't feel that way for for

sellers right now because they're

comparing they've got recency biased

they're comparing to you know a lot of

people selling now bought three four

years ago when when homes were

selling overnight basically you know the

the sign would go in the yard and it be

under contract within 5 hours kind of

thing the market is not like that but

it's also it also hasn't gone back to

what it was pre- pandemic where you know

you could take a few weeks for a

property that was unique and and was in

a hot area you could maybe take you

could maybe see it one weekend let the

the week go by and then look at it the

second weekend and it would and it would

still be there that is not the case

for for homes that are you know in

hot area that are that are desirable

homes that have desirable features and

all of that and that are priced

correctly that's obviously a very

important

detail so Stan the thing that stands out

to me here is just the decline from from

12 that 2012 that Peak y down to you

know where we are today obviously

there's the pandemic dip but like even

if you take that out and just look at

the line I I just want to ask you like

where is this headed because I know we

can't predict the future but like are we

does this go back up does this stay low

like I I feel like this just shows that

greenville's been a great market for you

know a decade plus but like what what

does that mean to you or how can we

contextualize this in the broader

picture well so you know the the line

reaches its highest over 120 days on

Market in December of

2011 so that was the worst that was the

that was the the month in all of the

data that we had that took the longest

to sell your home was December 2011

there's a variety of reasons for that

and yes you can see that there there was

a steady decline in this until 2018

and then it kind of normalized until

until the pandemic happened and then

it went way down and now it's come back

up it's still below what it was in 2018

2019 what I think is at at some

point if if

rates kind of stay where they are I

think that we would likely see this line

kind of stay about where it is but

here's what's going to happen at some

point most likely is that mortgage

rates are going to come back down when

when mortgage rates come back down this

number is going to drop because we've

got all this pent up demand all these

people sitting on the sidelines waiting

you know they they can't afford a home

right now you know with rates being

around 7% if we see rates go below

6% all bets are off this this this

line is going to go way back down again

days on Market's going to plmet back

into the 30s God forbid the 20s I I hope

not the 20s I I but I could see that

and so I think what we'll probably see

for the rest of this year is we'll

probably see you know this follow the

normal Trend right so the normal trend

is that the days on Market go down

through the summer months and then Peak

back up during the fall and winter

months it's looking like it's going to

it's going to Peak at a lower number

for of days on Market than it has the

past year but then if if mortgage

rates come down anytime soon if we see

you know and and and I'm not just

talking about like a minor minor

mortgage rates I'm talking about coming

down you know like an entire point for

instance or 100 basis points then

then we'll see this number we'll see

days on Market go way down again homes

are going to be selling overnight again

kind of thing is what I'm concerned

about and I think that that's that's

a very real possibility so

it's going to be years before we see

this go back to pre-pandemic Norms is

what I think and what I think will be

required for us to see that is once all

the demand from the baby boomer

generation starts to dwindle because

they are really propping up so much of

the

of the housing market right now from a

demand standpoint you know the most

active you know purchasers of real

estate in their 60s to 80s that we have

probably ever seen and so

but s's data indicates that by the early

2030s that will pretty much be done

and so I think you know we might be a

few years away we're going to see this

go way down but then we're a few years

away from it going back up and then at

that point you know we'll probably see

something that resembles what it looked

like you know five six seven eight years

ago so I I picked up on two things you

said there the there's a pretty tight

correlation between interest rates

and this stays on market number and then

you kind of me mentioned the pressure

that the the boomer generation is kind

of still active in a way that's

that's significant right so those

things I heard but what what you also

mentioned in there was you hope the

number doesn't go back down to 20 and I

guess I would just ask you I'm not sure

why that is what is there something bad

that happens when when this number goes

that low yeah that's that's a that's a

market that's really just stressful

for everyone obviously that's indicative

of an insane sellers Market I consider

that to be an unhealthy sellers Market

because what's happening when you see

days on Market at 20 what that indicates

is is that there you know you've got to

factor in that there's a lot of homes

that you know even in an insane sellers

Market aren't going to sell for 60 90

days because they were just overpriced

they've got all sorts of problems etc

etc so for all of that to average out to

20 days on Market that means that a huge

portion of the market is selling within

24 to 48 hours maybe even less than that

that's stressful for buyers I can't

tell you when when the market was like

that how many times I would show up at a

home to show it and would get a call

from the you know the listing agent hey

we just went under contract and it

was like I mean in some cases I had

driven like an hour to to show that home

and only to find out that it had just

gone under contract that that was the

market When Buyers might have to put in

you know seven or eight offers before

they get one accepted and sellers

even though you know it's kind of fun

in a sense to to experience that it's

also kind of stressful too when when

it's that strained of a market things

are selling that quickly there's that

much demand and that little Supply which

is the only thing that caus with that

kind of

dynamic you're having to have a ton of

showings in your home you can't

discriminate against showings like once

you list your home MLS rules are you

have to allow showings so you can't

just say you know I'm only goingon to

allow Four showings today you can't do

legally you cannot do that you cannot

list your home on MLS and then and then

do something like that so that become

you know during this period of time when

when days on Market was so low we had

sellers that were listing their home

on a weekend then going on vacation

because it was just so stressful and

for them to go through all of that and

then you get 25 offers well me as a

realtor if I'm the listing agent or any

listing agent legally you have to

present every one of those offers well

that could be a 4-Hour conversation

depending on how much detail you go into

and and and all of that that's also kind

of stressful so it's just a

it it is there's there's a lot of

reasons why nobody really likes the

market to be that intense is just a bit

much really for all parties involved

but particularly for buyers but but even

for Sellers as well even though they

once they get to the end of it they're

really happy but but the process

is still pretty stressful does that make

sense yeah that clarifies a lot thanks

for explaining that yeah so let's move

on to median sales

price we look at the median to kind

of gauge you know what's happening in

the market it's it's not one: one like

this is an appreciating Market if this

number is going up or one: one that is a

depreciating Market if it's going down

but at the end of the day this is

Loosely speaking what we look at and

what we judge the market off of the

trajectory of where it's going if we get

a bunch of months in a row that are

positive year-on-year median sales price

that tells you it is an appreciating

Market if we get a bunch of months in a

row with negative year on-year then

that is generally speaking a

depreciating market so you got to look

at this data as a whole you can't

just look at it one month at a time

but that being said let's look at one

month for now and then I'll I'll put

some some flesh on the bones here

April's median sales price was a exactly

the same as March we're at 310,000 which

is interesting so no month-on-month

increase not that uncommon, if you

know if you look at past years you can

see that there will be even

month-on-month decreases so we're likely

to see that this summer as well we're

likely to see some months that go way up

and then some months that that recede

from that but year on year it is a

2.4% increase from April of 2023 that

was at 32788

we have now experienced 11 straight

months of median sales price year

on-year increases so this is very

clearly a an appreciating Market

although the appreciation has slowed a

bit right so we've we've now had

going back to December of last year

we've had five straight months of of

the rate of of the median sales price

going up has slowed down so December was

6.7 year- on-year increase

January was 4.2 down to February

3.2 March Actually March went up a

little bit to 3.4 but now April is back

down to

2.4% but this is a pretty this is a

pretty healthy number like if we saw

2.4% appreciation in the Greenville

Market most people would be very happy

about that sellers are still seeing

gains like yeah you might be hearing

that and being like well that's not good

in compared to stocks in compared to the

S&P you know all that kind of stuff well

yeah real estate's not stocks right

it doesn't appreciate in the same way

that stocks do it's also not taxed in

the same way that stocks are but I

think most people would be happy if we

stayed in that 2.4% range I don't think

we will I think you know I think we're

still going to see See increases that

exceed 2.4% here in future months but

that's where we're are right now it's an

appreciating Market but it's not an

appreciating market like we've seen some

other times where we've seen the the

year-on-year per

you know back during the craziness of Co

some months might be 15 or 20%

thankfully we've not seen

that Stan my question on this one is how

this seems like a really kind of

highlevel number that's that's a good

way to get an overview how much has the

recent inflation that we've been seeing

kind of like at the grocery store Etc

does that factor in here at all or is

this kind of able to kind of smooth that

out and and be separated that's a good

question it's not these are not

inflation adjusted numbers so you could

make the argument certainly that the

2.4% year-on-year increase is actually a

net decrease if you factored it in for

inflation this is an argument that some

people have made and you can't

refute that argument, right I mean if you

just have your cash in the bank

you're generally speaking even if you've

got a money market account that's you

know bringing you 4 and a half percent

whatever you're you're still

generally speaking, losing out versus

inflation, so these are not inflation

adjusted numbers you can you can find

that number for the National Market

in other places, we don't analyze

it in that way in the you know for

this Greater Greenville Association

realtor statistics, but yeah

does that does that answer your question

on that yeah I think so I think that's

kind of what I was getting at I just

wanted to know like how how that play

into this and it seems like it's almost

like a separate you'd have to run a

separate comparison to kind of get

that number yeah you have to create a

whole model in order to in order to

create inflation-adjusted numbers which

is well above my pay grid because I'm

not an economist but people

that really want to get into that I

believe the Federal Reserve has some of

that has some of that data out there

there's also data that's produced by

housing wire has some really good

stuff like that out there

yeah a few sources like that where you

can find some of that if you

really want to look at okay what months

do we see true inflation-adjusted

increases versus what months are we just

seeing standard appreciation but the

important thing for people to know as

they look at this is most people when

they think of home home prices they

don't think of it in in inflation

adjusted dollars right all they think

about is I bought or or these people

bought this home in

2019 for $200,000 and now they've got it

listed for $300,000 and that

seems insane to me that's the way

people look at it they don't ever

analyze the data based on

inflation hardly ever only the

experts do, from what I have seen

and so we look at this on more of a

high level and for most people that

works now the average sales price which

I don't spend as much time focused on

because averages are skewed by the homes

at the top and the bottom the median

just picks out the middle number in a

data set so that's usually the number

that experts use when they are looking

at real estate data, but I like to look

at the average as well it's kind of

interesting if you really want to know

what the true average price of a home

in Greenville is

371,000 and that was a 2.6% increase

versus April of 2023 which was

36253 again I'm not drawing any major

conclusions from this because this

number tends to do kind of some wonky

things like if we have a few million

doll homes sold in a month that greatly

skews the data in a market like

Greenville that doesn't have a ton of

million dollar homes or you know if

we have a single you know new

construction community that sells 50

units in one month, that you know

even something as basic as that can skew

the data right, we just discussed that

the close sales was what I think it was

like 2200 so if you get you know 50

you know a community of 50 that sells

that's a part of that 2200 that's

actually a pretty large subset so I

don't draw a whole lot of conclusions

from this but the thing that I

find most interesting is that we now

have 12 straight months of the average

inreasing year on year we've

gone all the way up you know from

like I said it was 362,000 in April of

2023 now it's 371,000, and every

single month for the past year has seen

a year-on-year increase and I

suspect that will likely

continue because the luxury housing

market is starting to become more of a

staple in the Greenville market and that

causes these numbers to go

up I don't have a question, I just have a

comment the 371 number kind of

surprises me it's higher than I expected

yeah yeah it is and again I would

focus more on the 310 number at the

at the median like if people ask me what

is the average home sale in Greenville I

don't tell them 372, I tell them 310

because that is a more accurate me even

though Tech I'm technically lying

because that isn't the average it's the

median, but it's answering the question

that people really have which is if I

were to buy a home right in the in

the middle what would that be and that

would be 310,000

yeah I think that's fair percent of list

price received this is the percentage

found when dividing a property sales

price by its most recent list price so

it doesn't take into account price drops

okay important detail then taking the

average for all properties sold in a

given month not accounting for seller

concession so the two caveats I

frequently make is the one I already

made which this is taking the most

recent list price so it's not accounting

for Price drops it's not accounting for

seller concessions meaning if a seller

is paying for a buyer's closing costs

that's not being factored in here but

with all of those caveats in mind we

saw our first decrease in the percent of

list price received in several months in

April it went down only .1% went down

from

98.7% April 2023 down to 98.6% April

2024 which is exactly the same as what

March of 2024 was so what that

means generally speaking if you're a seller

you can expect to get

98.6% of what your home is listed for

and likely buyers are going to ask

for a little bit of closing costs as

well on top of that if your home has

been on the market for some time

that's a pretty good a pretty

reasonable assumption to make and

these numbers are are really are some

of the most normal numbers on here right

these numbers are real close to what we

saw in

2019 and and in 2018 you know before

things kind of got out of whack during

the

pandemic yeah so when I'm when I'm

looking at this I see that 101.4

number so that's basically pandemic time

right when when basically you're getting

as an outlier as far as these numbers

are concerned where you're getting more

than you asked for which one are you

looking at what month April of 2022 when

you look at the the bar chart there on

the

left yeah so so we had that stretch

between we had that stretch between

early

2021 and mid 2022 when you know when

we had those super low rates and when

the market really went crazy where

sellers could actually expect to get

more than what their home was listed for

as a result of the tremendous demand

combined with with just insanely low

Supply in in contrast to the demand

so that that pushed prices to do

something that they had never done

before that pushed buyers to do things

that they had never done before which

was having to offer substantial in many

cases substantially above what a seller

had a home listed for just in order to

win in a bidding war kind of

situation so that that was that's what's

happening there yeah it's that chaos

that you were describing earlier and

it's not fun again it's it's not fun to

go through that right if you're a buyer

you know you're you're you've got a

certain you know Max price that you're

looking for now you have to factor in

also you're going to have to go above

whatever you know the seller has the

home listed for pretty much guaranteed

no matter what you end up making an

offer on it just creates a lot of

complications and so this number

98.6% that's a very comfortable number

for me for for most sellers for most

buyers most sellers expect to get a

little bit less than what they've listed

a home for and that is the way the

market has normally worked buyers

typically expect that that they don't

have to pay at or above what a home is

listed for unless it has just come on

the market and so that that's a

very comfortable number for most people

if it stays like that I think that I

think everyone will be pretty happy with

that from the standpoint of of this

specific data the percent of list price

received so I have a follow-up question

here you see this is now 98.6 indicating

things have kind of normalized does that

help you or factor into when you're when

you're helping someone list their home

for how to price

it

this number specifically doesn't what

what this number helps me not in terms

of pricing a home pricing a home

really you're looking at what the other

homes in the area have sold for and then

kind of backing into the number that way

I don't you know some people might

look at this and say well I want to get

$300,000 and so what I'm going to do is

I'm going to list it for

$35,000 thinking that I'll get 98.6% of

that which will get me I don't know I

don't know if that gets you to 300,000 I

can't do that math in my head that

quickly but that's the that's really

the wrong way to go about this because

markets don't work that way right the

the

98.6% is the fair market value you can't

you can't gain the system you can't

produce your own fair market value for a

home so the reason the that 1.4% gap

between 100% And

98.6% that is simply sellers

overpricing their home at the end of the

day that is that is what that is so

sellers that think I can further

overprice my home in order to get a

higher number that's just not how real

estate markets work so you've got to

look at what things have actually sold

for and why and then price it according

to that and not you know not try to

outsmart the markets because you won

you just you won't be able to outsmart

the market that's actually a great

question I'm sure that people have

thought about that when I've done

this podcast in the past and and

I'm and I'm sure that question has come

up how's affordability index I

have complained about this number

multiple times I don't even really know

what it means anymore but long story

short if it's at a 100 that means

that the average household can buy the

average priced home Loosely speaking

and it's now at 95 but but the this

number has changed so many different

times that I I I don't even know what to

make of it anymore but long story

short based on the data that we have

here the average household can only

afford 95% of the average priced home do

you have any any thoughts of that that

that is a 4% decrease Year onye from

April of 2023 when it was at

99% my only thought is I'm trying to

understand it this index measures

housing affordability for the region for

example an index of 120 means the median

household income is

120% of what is necessary to qualify

for the median priced

home

okay lot of medians in there yeah so so

so Joel for those of you listening

Joel was just was just reading off

the the description of the housing

affordability index off of the slide

so basically this this what they're

packaging into this 95 number is the

median household income the medi

priced home and whatever the prevailing

mortgage rates were were for that month

and then it's reverse engineering based

on all of those based on those three

things it's it's coming up with a number

where 100 means exactly that the median

household income can afford the median

priced home based on interest rates so

we want that number to be at 100 or

above generally speaking for our

Market to be at least at the the most

basic level of affordability for our

for the people that live in the rille

area so at 95 that's not the worst

number in the world you can you can

see that in in early 2023 it was in

the low 90s so 95 isn't too bad

but we would like we'd really like to

see that number at or above a hundred so

the buy you know average buyers can buy

an average house yeah the description

has a final sentence that says a higher

number means greater affordability I

should I wish they would have led with

that because that would have helped me

kind simplify it a I I I get it now

where if the number is 100 or greater

that means I've got more buying power

essentially yeah so think about it this

way the we just discussed the median was

310,000 right that's the median priced

home right now so the the average family

can only afford you know 99% of 95% of

that so that 294,000

500 home and and the the factors

there being the the interest rate

their income and what was the other

Factor the the cost of the home itself

the cost of the home yeah yeah okay I

think I get it now so if we saw interest

rates go down this number should pop

back up because interest rates even

though we would see the median price

really start to sore at that point if if

interest rates went down the impact

on a monthly payment of the interest

rates is much greater than you so so

let's say we went from a 7% mortgage

rate to a 5 a half% rate that would be a

that would have much more impact on on

housing affordability than it would if

for instance prices went down by$ 15

or

$20,000 so so this number will

improve if mortgage rates

improve inventory of homes for sale this

is the number of properties available

for sale and active status at the end of

a given month we we discussed that brief

earlier this is also a number that is

frequently inaccurate for the most

recent month so for instance March

when these stats came out last

month March was at

4,215 that got revised down again by 500

basically down to

3,728 but the interesting detail is

that that makes March year onye

24.5% higher inventory than March of

2023 which was

2994 April came in at 4,400 93 that's

probably going to get revised down into

the you know 3900 range that will

also be a massive increase from April

2023 that was

2,896 this is one of the most eye

popping numbers that I'm looking at here

because what this tells me is that we

are now at inventory levels that are

pretty much right on par with what we

saw pre-pandemic so if you're a buyer

okay you have as many options for

housing right now as you would have five

or six years ago now those options are a

lot more expensive and mortgage rates

are a lot higher and a lot of things

have changed but you have as many

options in terms of the number of homes

for sale as you had excuse me as you had

a few years ago

pre-pandemic and that's one of the few

things on here that are truly going back

to the pre-pandemic

Norms so Stan you earlier you you said

You' heard reference to people saying oh

it's a buyer Market this to me of

everything that we've talked about seems

like the

only you know the only case where that

is true essentially from the numbers

that we've talked about is that right

that is right and this is probably

the big reason why people well this

is one of the reasons why people when

they say I think it's a buyer Market

this is one of the main things that

they're looking at they're also

looking at things like Daon market and

whatnot what what they're experiencing

is just recency bias right when your

neighbor a couple of years

ago sold their home for $300,000 and

went under contract in two days and it

it was listed for 285 and it sold for

300 and you know the buyer didn't

ask for any closing costs because they

couldn't and they the seller didn't

have to do any repairs because they had

negotiated it would be an Asis contract

all this kind of stuff and now here you

are in 2024 a few years later and you

you know you're listing your house your

neighbor listed their house for 285 and

sold it for 300 well you're looking at

comps and you're still think seeing

well my house might only be worth

310 based on the comps maybe

315 and it's it you know you list it for

315 and then it takes several months to

sell and it only sells for

305 and you know then the the

buyer asked for you to do repairs and

all of that you're comparing that to

when the market was the unhealthiest and

the most extreme sellers Market that it

has ever been so it's not a fair

comparison that's not what

constitutes the buyer Market isn't the

normalization of the most extreme

seller Market of all time it is all the

data even even if you go back to this

period of time that we're talking about

2017, 2018, 2019 that was still a sellers

Market okay people forget that it just

wasn't people have in their mind that a

sellers Market equals what 20 you

know 2020, mid 2020 through mid 2022 was

that is hopefully never going to happen

again hopefully we'll never see a

sellers market like that, that is the

extreme extremes when it comes to that

a seller Market is simply when demand

outpaces Supply, that's all that is

demand outpaces Supply and

historically speaking when we have

around in Greenville around

4,000 is 4100 4,200 homes for sale

that's traditionally still a sellers

market now it honestly is even more of a

seller's market now there's more demand

in the market now than there was back in

2018, 2017, 2019 how do we know that well

look at some of these other things that

we've looked at look pending sales we've

already talked about that are

generally speaking higher than most of

these years were closed sales generally

speaking higher than most of these years

were now we'll have to see the way the

rest of this plays out and again

demand is being suppressed right

now on the basis of these higher

rates there's there's pent up demand

that I've referenced now a few times but

but here we are you know with with

inventory at similar levels to what it's

been a few years ago you should not

confuse that with a sellers Market with

a sorry with a buyer Market we're not

there yet what would it take for us to

get there

we probably need to start getting

into the high fours is what I think

so again this is the April n is

going to be revised down it's

currently saying

4493 that's going to get revised down

into either the high 3es or the low

fours so in my opinion we're nowhere

nowhere near what it would take for this

to be technically speaking a true

buyers Market yeah what you're

describing would be a 25% increase over

where we will be revise down to which is

just massive right yeah exactly so

we're not there yet month supply of

inventory got to be careful with this

one because this is dividing the

inventory of homes for sale which I just

said is inaccurate for the most recent

months by the pending sales from the

last 12 months which I already said is

also inaccurate for the most most

recent months so the April number of 3.6

is not going to be accurate so it says

it's 3.6 months supply of inventory

that's going to be wrong that's going to

be revised back down mostly it'll

probably be revised back down to

somewhere between three and 3.2 month

supply of the inventory which will still

be a big increase year on year but let's

look back to March of 24 this number

should be accurate by now so it was 2.9

months of inventory which is a 26%

increase year-on-year over March of 23

which was

2.3 months of inventory so this is

also an indicator of the pressure

relief valve for buyers that there is

more months supply of inventory now

historically speaking, being in the low

threes which is what that April number

will get revised to that is still

historically a pretty low number but

it's starting to get pretty close to

what the pre-pandemic numbers were and

so that that's again something that

buyers should be should be happy about

because this does factor in the demand

side of things now again once rates go

down I suspect that month supply will

will go back down as well and it'll be a

little bit more of a constrained Market

as well but that's not something that

we have to worry about most likely

for several months if not a year or

more the way things are looking at

the moment, so a question I have here is

I know we've kind of established that

it's not really a true buyer Market but

does this indicate that like if

you're able to swallow the higher price

or or manage that and manage you know if

you're willing to accept the higher

interest rate that we've been

experiencing recently, does this mean

like hey it's a good time to go shopping

and look around or or how do you how do

you see that fitting in

here again if you're a a buyer

in this

market you've got to think about what do

you know okay don't don't Focus too much

on the unknowns because a lot of people

have gotten hosed trying to focus on the

unknowns trying to trying to time the

market a lot of buyers have been waiting

for these mortgage rates to come down

well guess right as the mortgage rates

haven't come down we've seen prices

continue to go up that's what we just

looked at with the with the median price

point so for those that have been

waiting for the past year things are

less affordable now than they were

a year ago, so I

personally prefer to focus on a known

commodity if you need to move you

know a common phrase that people say is

marry the house and date the rate okay

what that means is buy the house that

you love if you have to hold your nose

with the mortgage rate because mortgage

rates are temporarily High and the FED

has told us it is temporary whether you

believe them or not, and so you

date the rate a couple of years from now

rates have gone down a point one and a

half points two points whatever the case

may be you've already got the house that

you want now you can refinance now bring

that payment down you know and make it

more manageable hopefully your income

has also increased during that time etc

etc, but that's generally speaking and

again, generally speaking good advice for

people is marry the house date the rate

and you know again if you waited for

those rates to go down my fear for

buyers is that they've waited too long

right it's like it's like waiting until

you know until the day before

Christmas to get in your Christmas

shopping or waiting maybe a better

example is waiting until you know the

day of Halloween to find your

Halloween costume it's too late right

the holiday is upon us

everyone's already picked on picked at

everything, it you're you're too late

you're really going to struggle by the

time the rates have come down now all of

that pent up demand you know gets

washed into the market and now you're

going to start to see those more extreme

bidding wars the the all these other

things we've been talking about that

have started to normalize are going to

become not normal again is what I

predict and so I'm I'm a bit wary

of you know waiting for additional

normalization because I I think quite

frankly that that we're this the way

it feels right now this is probably

about the best that it's going to be for

for quite some time for

buyers it's really interesting the way

that you kind of your guidance that

you're suggesting here because like for

me when I look at that you know as

someone who's less experienced I'm like

oh it could be good but like yeah that

tendency to want a Time the market you

you've you've identified as you know

really problematic so I I like the fact

that you know what you're focused on is

like

getting making sure there's a good fit

and making it work with with what we've

got with what we know yeah, and you

know I don't just say this as a realtor

like I practice what I preach when I

moved a couple of years ago I swallowed

almost a

double my mortgage rate that I ended

up with was almost double what it was at

my old house but it was it was time

to move you know it and the opportunity

arose

the house that I really wanted you

know became available and you know again

I held my nose at at the at the mortgage

rate and said hopefully these rates will

come down in the future but this is the

house that I want and I'm not gonna I'm

not going to let it get past me I mean

I've seen this over and over again you I

mean there are homes that I that my wife

and I attempted to buy when we had no

money back in you know 2020 10 that

you know I could have bought for you

know like a 100,000 that I've seen now

sell a few times since then you know in

the high 3es low fours you know like

this is this is the way the Greenville

Market is we've got 22 people per day

moving here and and that just creates

a stable Baseline of demand that that

ultimately causes prices to continue to

go up and so you can control what you

can control right what you can control

you can't control mortgage rates what

you can control is actually purchasing a

home that you like right now and so

generally speaking that's that's good

advice for for most buyers but again

every situation is

unique any any other closing thoughts

or or questions about any of that before

I I conclude this thing out my

closing thoughts are this is a lot of

fun I learned a lot I I feel like

there's a lot more I have to learn so

for me it was really good to kind of get

in there kind of see what these numbers

were about but also see the pitfalls

that are there and I think you you

guided me through that really well and I

appreciate it so thanks for having me on

yeah thanks Joel really appreciate it

and thank you guys for listening or for

watching reminder if you like this

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same thing and if you need a realtor

in the Greenville area I'm your guide my

contact information is in the show notes

if you need to reach out to Joel reach

out to me and I'll connect you with Joel

and thank you guys once again and we

will talk again next time