Hello everyone and Welcome to another

episode of Selling Greenville your

favorite real estate podcast here in

lovely Greenville, South Carolina, I'm

your host as always Stan Mccune I'm a

realtor right here in Greenville, South

Carolina, and you can find all of my

contact information in the show notes if

you need to reach out to me for any and

all of your real estate needs here in

Greenville or elsewhere, I'm your guy

so please reach out to me and just a

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today we are going to be talking about

the market stats for Greenville the

greater Greenville Association of

Realtors just published their Market

stats for the month of June, which

covers the months leading up through

May so they usually call these

stats by the 10th of the month and then

they release them about a week or so

later, sometimes a couple of weeks later

I just got these Stats today, I'm

recording this on Wednesday, June the

19th I just got these Stats today, and

I'm eager to share them with you guys

so I'm going to, if you're watching on

YouTube, you'll get to do fun little

screen share with me and you'll be able

to follow these stats in real

time as I go through them with you guys

all right, we're going to start right at

the top with new listings new listings

have been running hot very hot

the past several months, I mean really

since the beginning of the year we have

we start off the year with a really

splashy start when it comes to new

listings a lot of people who have been

waiting to sell their house waiting

waiting waiting hoping for mortgage

rates to improve realizing mortgage

rates aren't likely to improve

anytime soon, and so some of the

Pent-up we talk about pent-up demand a

lot in real estate demand and Supply are

connected at the hip, because sellers

tend to be buyers and vice versa, not

all the time but a large portion of the

market is that way, and so any time

there's pent up demand, there's also pent

up Supply, and in this case, there is

more pent up Supply that's that's

leaking out than there is pent up demand

in my opinion, and so here's what we

are what we're seeing the month of

May had 2

214 new listings that was up

15.4% from May 2023 which, was

1,98 new listings, so now we have

three straight months of listings Over

2000 we didn't have any months in

2023 with new listings Over 2000 so now

we've had three straight months of new

listings data that's higher than any

month that we had in 2023 so that

is noteworthy 15.4% increase last

month was a 28% increase the month

before that was a

2.6% increase, February was a 25.7%

increase January 33.6% increase long

story short we are seeing some massive

increases in new listings year on year

again this is pent up Supply breaking

out leaking through and starting to

enter into the market, people being

forced to sell perhaps when they don't

want to but that is at at the very

least part of what's happening there

pending say sales this is always a

number that for the most recent month

which would be the month of May it's

always going to be inaccurate it us it

comes in

low so pending sales always looks

awful right the month of May if you're

watching this on YouTube it looks like

we are down 35% year-on-year in pending

sales, that's not true, we're going to

back up to the month of April so last

month when the April stats came out it

said that April had 967 pending sales

well that got revised up to 1,5 one

pending sales so obviously that's why I

don't look at the at the most recent

months numbers because that's a massive

increase that's over a 50% increase

of a revision that they did to that not

exactly sure why as I discussed last

week with Joel why these numbers

aren't accurate but it is what it is

long story short that is a 3.5% decrease

year onye for the month of April now

we've now had two straight months of

decreases in pending sales but I

don't think that you know if if you're

thinking that that's indicative of

something crazy I don't think that there

is much to really worry about because

the month of May currently showing

946 now if we assume a similar revision

is going to happen in May to what

happened in April then May numbers

will end up being in the high 1400s well

may of 2023 was 14 55 pending sales

so what I think is going to happen is

once these May numbers get revised it's

going to be either right at what may

2023 was so basically not an increase or

or a decrease or perhaps a very very

slight decrease or a very slight

increase and I'm putting the

probabilities at the moment at a slight

increase year-on-year so the month of May

pending sales looking good just

reading the tea leaves on these numbers

but we've had two straight months of

pending sales being down and a lot of

other indicators that demand has

softened a bit this year this has been

the story of 2024 has been softening

demand and and that for sure

is something that we are seeing in these

pending sale numbers what about closed

sales closed sales is has been

interesting to watch right because

obviously pending sales and closed sales

are connected pending sales in case

you forgot count of properties on which

offers have been accepted in a given

month and the closed sales is the count

of actual sales that closed in a given

month so we've had now two straight

months of positive close sales April was

up 16.2% Year on year may is up 1.1% year

on-ear so may numbers we had

1,65 closed sales that's a very strong

number for the month of May up from

1,587 the previous year may of

2023 so 1.1 % increase now would not

Shock me at all if June comes in a bit

low let's look at what June was last

year March April May June yeah June is

almost certainly going to come in year

On year low when we get the June

numbers next month but with the

pending sales numbers being pretty

strong for the month of May what it's

looking like so far that probably means

that the following months July and

August might be a little bit stronger

this year so we're seeing a little bit

of of es and flows happening and

again we this data is interesting

it's it as you take it as you see the

trends over the Long Haul but we can't

get too caught up month-on-month in

in what exactly is happening I'm more

interested in seeing what the trend is

and the trend right now is that

more often than not our closed sales are

stronger than were the year prior in

2024 generally speaking stronger than

what we experienced in 2023 so far we've

only had one month in 2024 that had a

negative year on-year Clos sale number

so that's good now you're saying but

you said the demand is softening

well again demand is a byproduct in real

estate of supply and so when you have

Supply numbers like what we're seeing

right Supply jumping

tremendously year-one-year and being

extremely high and we'll get into

inventory here in a minute if demand

doesn't follow at a similar rate then

that means that demand is softening

relative to supply so that's very

important even though we might think

that demand might be stronger in

a vacuum in a year-on-year basis but you

can not ever in real estate separate

demand from Supply and so that is why it

can be ACC accurate two two things can

be true you could have pending sales and

closed sales be going up while the

market is softening for Sellers and I

think that we're seeing a little bit of

that happening right now days on Market

until sale this is another soft

number it it went down a little bit

month- on month April was 47 days on

market May was 46 but that being

said that wasn't as big of a decrease as

we experienced last May when it was 44

days on Market until sale so it's a

little bit higher than last May again a

little bit softer market right now

home's taking slightly longer so so

right now on average it's taking 46 days

for home to go under contract from the

time that it's listed

historically that is I mean you can

you can if you're looking at the graph

on YouTube you can see historically that

is not too far off of what even you know

a lot of the pre-pandemic Norms were it's

pretty comparable to 2019 data so

again if the market feels if you were

buying or selling real estate in 2018

2019 and you feel like the market feels

like it did back then a lot of the

numbers that we're looking at mirror

those numbers back in 2018

2019 you might even say that nature is

healing median sales

price talk about this one obviously this

is one of the most interesting numbers

on here and of course as we as I've

said many times on the

show we look at median sales price to

kind of determine the trajectory of the

market it Loosely tells us appreciation

it doesn't exactly tell us whether the

market is appreciating or depreciating

but generally speaking again you look at

the entire Trend if the entire Trend if

we see if we have you know 6 months in a

row where prices are going up that's an

generally speaking an appreciating

Market if we see 6 months in a row where

prices are generally going down that's a

generally speaking a depreciating market

so we've been in an appreciating market

for quite some time now but the month of

May was a 0% we had the exact same

number May 2024 to May 2023 315,000 is

the median sales price that is exactly

what it was a year ago so we have not

seen the median sales price increase

for the month of May now it had

increased every other month this year

and even going back last year almost all

the months last year it increased as

well year on year but not for the

month of May now what does that mean

well again one month it doesn't mean a

whole lot just yet there are a lot of

examples on here back you know even if

you go back to let's see here I I was

looking at one of these I think it was

I think there was was actually a May

yeah May 2017 was almost exactly the

same as May 2016 I I've looked at this

many times and seen you know a lot of

times were year onye you know like

like December 2020 the median sales

price ended hold on actually let me

look at this more closely January

rather January 2020 the median sales

price ended up lower than January

2019 so if you look at the data that

I that I have here that I'm showing you

on YouTube it goes all the way back to

2007 there are several examples where

prices actually went down year onye in

various months and again in a vacuum

that doesn't mean a whole lot these

things can these median sales prices

and average sales prices can be skewed

by big development selling all at one

time or or by you know a lot of

variabilities

you know we only have Greenville you

know again for the month of May we had

1,65 closed sales what if there was a

big Builder that came in and closed a

hundred of those in during that month

that would really skew this data so

that's some of what can sometimes happen

and that's why we're looking at the

entire Trend not just one month at a

time but I do think it is noteworthy I'm

not trying to blow it off it's

definitely noteworthy that there is not

an increase year on-year for the month

of May and that is definitely something

to keep track of however on the average

sales price which I don't put as much

weight on because that one really is

skewed by really expensive homes

that's why it's a lot higher so the

average was 389,000 1800 so basically

390,000 that is the highest we've

ever had in Greenville so the average

sales price hit a new High and that's

again because of expensive real estate

in our market right now it is

pushing that number to to be where it

is but that's a 2.4% increase year

on-ear over May

2023 and so again we'll keep tabs on

that I don't put a ton of stock into

the average sales price but I do find it

interesting if you want to tell if you

want to know exactly what the average is

in Greenville it's 390 but if you really

want to know more closely what the

average is the median is more accurate

it's 315 in my opinion all right percent

of list price received this is the

percentage found when dividing a

property's sales price by its most

recent list price then taking the

average for all property sold in a given

month not accounting for sary

concessions it went down 2% year on

year in other words sellers are getting

2% not 2% 2% less for the home that's

listed than they were a year ago that

being said it is pretty

close to what was pretty normal pre-

pandemic so it's at

98.7% for the month of May

2024 it was

98.9% for the month of May

2023 so a little bit softer again

there's a lot of little data

points in these numbers that show the

market getting slightly softer but

that's not a big drop right. 2% if

you're if you're looking historically

we've had some big drops right in June

of 2023 it was nearly a 2% drop July of

2023 it was nearly a 2% drop again year

on year so we're nowhere near that

we're at0 2% from 98.9 to

98.7 so again noteworthy in that it's

a little bit softer but only a little

bit we'll we'll continue to keep track

of this and see what the overall

trajectory is housing affordability

index this is the thing where you

know basically they encapsulate in one

number prices of homes mortgage rates

and income and determine if a median

household income can afford the medium

priced home and if they can the score is

100 if they can afford more than the

medium price home then it'll be over 100

if they can't afford a median price home

it'll be less than 100 and that's where

it is right now it's at 94 for the month

of May 2024 which is exactly the same

as May 2023 which should come as no

surprise because the price came in

exactly the same right we just talked

about the median price was exactly the

same as a year ago mortgage rates are

basically exactly the same as a year

ago and so the only other part of the

equation of this real estate love

triangle is the is the income part of

it well I don't know exactly how gjr

figur out the income that they plug into

this you know as far as the the median

household income I'm not sure where

they're getting that data from but odds

are that that data is not data that

refreshes every single year it might but

but I have a hunch it probably doesn't

and so all of that said it should

come as no surprise that there is no

increase in or decrease in the

housing affordability index but once

mortgage rates start to come down

which based on based on what the

Federal Reserve has indicated and

based on you know some of this inflation

data and whatnot that's coming out

probably the earliest this might happen

would be September might even be even

later than that and even if that happens

even if the Federal Reserve reduces

their rate it's only going to have a

minor impact on mortgage rates because

they're not going to reduce it

dramatically all at once they're going

to do a little reductions here

and there and so

I we're not going to see this housing

affordability index go down

substantially this year I don't think

because we need to see prices go way

down or we need to see rates go way down

and even if they come down a little bit

I don't think it's going to be enough to

really move the needle could we get back

up to 100 by the end of the year maybe

but but I would be a little bit

surprised now going to take a quick

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right moving on here to inventory of

homes for sale

inventory

woo up

59.5% year onye for the month of May

now before everyone freaks out this is a

number also that is always incorrect for

the most recent month so we're not going

to focus too much on that 59.5 but I

will come back to it let's look back at

April April was also an eye popping

number and we discussed this a little

bit last last month my projections for

April but it was up 36.2% year on year

it went from

2895 homes for sale at the end of April

2023 all the way up to

3,944 homes for sale at the end of April

2024 so big big increase we've now had

mega increases every month this year

January year on year was up 12.9

February was up 19.9 March 22.3 April

36.2 so when I say Supply is outpacing

demand this is exactly what I'm talking

about because there are homes there are

more homes just sitting on the market

right now than there have been in years

okay now this may number is very

interesting currently sitting at

4,716 that's going to be revised down

you know how I know that well I look at

this data every month but let's look

back at April I just said April was

3,944 what was that number when

before they revised it was

4,493 so they revised that down a

whole 500 what

50050 basically if my if my quick

back of the napkin math is correct so

they revised that down 550 so if they

have a similar revision for May of 2024

then our inventory will be around 42

41 to

4200 homes for sale in active status

at the end of May U that's still an eye

popping number okay if you're looking on

YouTube you can see the chart the here

this I'm showing my Watchers a

line that line is

4,000 and you can see that between

2016 and 2020 there were a few months

that crested or or came near 4,000

but that really wasn't the norm after

particularly after 20 January of 2017

so we're we're entering a period here

where inventory is again very it's going

to come in very similar I think to 2019

and and that is what I keep telling

people it feels like 2019 in a lot of

ways right and this is one of the nice

things about having been in real estate

as long as I have is that I can I can

make a statement like that and it's an

educated statement because I was selling

real estate in 2019 it feels a lot

like 2019

for me as a real estate professional

so I think that we're going to have a

massive increase it's not going to be

59.5% year on-ear but after this is all

said and done I think the increase for

May will be probably in the

40% plus range year

on-ear and so so that's big buyers

have more options of homes just sitting

on the market than they have had in

years and at least 5 years if not longer

if you're a seller you need to take

that into account as well it doesn't

mean it's not the right time to sell

but you need to be prepared and

tailor your expectations that it's not

2021 it's not 2022 anymore it's closer

to 2019 and things are just a lot

softer now than they have been in in

some time as sellers that are taking a

beating buyers well buyers are really

taking the beating but it's impacting

Sal as well with these mortgage rates

being where they are month supply of

inventory well this number I don't like

to look at the most recent month again

because it's literally dividing

inventory by pending sales which are

both numbers that are inaccurate for the

most recent months so let's look at

April and let's look at the trend the

trend is that this number has been

gradually going up as this year has gone

on and April got up to 3.1 months of

inventory and I believe that may that

that was let me see how that was revised

that was revised from April was

originally 3.6 that was revised down

half a point and so may is currently

at 3.8 months of inventory that's

probably going to revise down to 3.3 or

something like that but whatever it

gets revised down to it's going to be

the highest number that we've had since

the pandemic and you can see that very

clearly on the Dot Plot that I that I

have here that I'm showing my YouTube

Watchers what does that mean okay

we've talked about this many many

times I'm going to tweak something

though I've been saying that

traditionally six months of inventory is

considered neither a buyer Market nor a

sellers market and that I believe that

if we got to 4.5 months of inventory

that that would be more the feeling

today in other words the way the market

is right now it would feel more like a

flat Market at 4.5 months of inventory

versus 6 months well I believe now that

we're probably at that's probably more

like four okay because I mean I'm

telling you right now I'm already having

sellers telling me is this a buyer

Market I mean this this just feels funny

listen I'm not ready to call it a buyer

market yet it's not in the data there

there's a lot of other indicators to me

just anecdotally that it's not a buyer

market yet but I'm telling you if we got

two four months of inventory it would

really really start to feel like a buyer

Market in my opinion with all of these

other things getting as soft as as

they as they are so we've got to

recalibrate here we're not that far away

if inventory levels start to get start

to creep up towards 5,000 homes on the

market at the end of the month which

would probably put us at about four

months of inventory I'm telling you what

it would feel very much at that point

like a buyer's market to a lot of people

so that is something that's that's

really fascinating that we really have

to keep tabs on because we have to

change the old rules the old rules don't

apply we're making up the rules as we go

along here because everything has been

so different the past four years and

and we we have to think differently the

market was fundamentally altered by what

happened during the pandemic and now we

have to readjust our old ways of

thinking that is it for what I have

for today's episode long story short a

softening Market still I would still

say it's still a sar Market by a thread

but it's pretty close to a flat market

right now just based on what I'm

seeing based on what this data is

telling us and we'll have to see if it

continues to soften could we see a

slight buyers Market in the future I

think we could it's it's definitely

in the cards and it's way more in the

cards now than it was a year ago so that

is either exciting or scary to some of

you listening but let me know if

you're excited or scared and why my

contact information is in the show notes

along with Piper Insurance Groups

information as well please reach out to

them for any of your home Auto or

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