Hello everyone and welcome to another

episode of Selling Greenville your

favorite real estate podcast here in

Greenville, South Carolina, I'm your host

as always Stan Mccune realtor right here in

the Greenville area of South Carolina

and you can find all of my contact

information in the show notes if you

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for watching thank you guys for

listening and all that good stuff but

without further Ado we have a lot to

cover today right because we have a

situation in politics on all three

levels national state

local we have situations Brewing

right now that that just need to be

discussed and I I know that

you know a lot of people have told me

that they like to hear me talk about

politics on the show because I tend to

focus more on local politics not so much

the National level sometimes the

state level but in general I do

tend to focus on on the local level and

there's not a whole lot of news that you

can get out there on local politics

obviously there there is news

produced by the local media it tends

to be it tends to leave a little bit

to be desired for me because they

don't talk about tone a lot of times

right so they they will report I one

thing about our local media that I

appreciate is that they report in a very

flat very unbiased way what's happening

but sometimes you kind of need to to

have a little bit of bias when you're

talking about this right and I'm not

saying bias towards one party or another

I'm saying bias towards communicating

tone communicating what has actually

happened if there's anger if there's

frustration if if there's you know

people acting out of control I don't

feel like our local media has in the

Greenville area has been particularly

has held certain politicians

particularly accountable when they've

been a little bit out of

control and that's just my opinion

right I understand why they don't do

that they have to be careful as well

but on this podcast I'm somewhat

careful in terms of in terms of how I

handle these things but also

the rules that perhaps apply to

Conventional Legacy Media don't apply to

me so I can kind of say whatever I want

within reason okay so without much

further Ado whatever the phrase is

let's just kind of jump Right In the

past couple of weeks as you probably

already know at least at least from

the standpoint of national politics but

just in general the past couple weeks

have been wild for politics again on all

three levels national state and

Greenville County level

now again this isn't a political show

but I do have some behind the scenes

involvement in our local political scene

and just to be clear it is

nonpartisan political involvement I

consider myself an independent all of

my political involvement up to this

point has been fully independent I've

not affiliated with you know this

Republican group or this Democrat group

or anything like that I I remain

independent because personally I feel

pretty much politically homeless and

even though in the state of South

Carolina you have to declare a party

you can still vote in either party's

election so that's that's something

that some people don't like but I think

in the absence of of having an option

for someone being a third party voter I

think that that's which we currently

don't have in South Carolina I think

that that probably is the best way to

handle this so long story short I can

speak from an educated perspective on

what's Happening in the Greenville

political scene I'm not the end all

Beall obviously with regard to this but

I I have Insider information to a

certain extent I have communication with

people behind the scenes and I'll

just kind of leave it at that now I will

mention anything I say on here about

politics is my opinion and my opinion

alone it's not reflective of the

opinions of any groups that I may be

associated with any political groups any

real estate groups my brokerage

the you know any the realtor

legislative committee anything like that

nothing that I say on this show is is

reflective the opinions of any of those

groups okay so I just want to be clear

on that because some people will get it

mixed don't get it confused these are

just my opinions I'm not talking about

the opinions of anyone else so all

that to be said much of this episode I

think will will end up being about

Greenville and South Carolina Poli

politics and what's happening there

after last week's last week or the

week before now the the runoffs that

just happened recently and the

primaries that occurred a few weeks

before that time travels in a weird way

these days so I'm like trying to think I

think the runoff was last week it's all

just kind of mushed the past few weeks

have been crazy for me but but

yeah we're completely through primaries

now in the state of South Carolina and

as I've said on the show before in

local politics sometimes primaries

determine who actually wins and that's

the case in many elections right now in

Greenville County we already know who

the winner is even though the general

election hasn't happened yet because

there is no general election Challenger

one second I need to plug in my

computer got unplugged while I was

setting up for this apparently U but

yeah we already know the the winners

for several State and County elections

because there's no general election

Challenger so these primary elections

were very very important and some of

them came down to just a few votes like

this is why it's super duper important

that you vote in these smaller primary

smaller local elections because your

vote really has weight your vote in the

National in in the presidential election

has basically no Worth right Trump is

going to be voted overwhelmingly in the

state of South Karan I mean we might see

65 or 70% of votes go towards Trump

nothing no political iCal campaign that

you or your friends can drum up can keep

Trump from being from winning the the

state of South Carolina it's just not

going to happen Okay let's just be let's

just be honest it is South Carolina is a

Trumpy state like it or not and

probably a lot of my listeners like that

but I I know a handful

don't and it is what it is there's no

reason to complain about that there's no

reason to be upset just recognize

what's obvious and move on that being

said I do want to speak briefly about

the presidential election for a moment

because it does have a bit of

relevance here right this is a

Greenville real estate podcast

Selling Greenville this is again not a

political podcast it's not a national

podcast but sometimes things happen on

the national level that has a trickle

down effect to the Greenville level so

with that in mind by now I'm sure

that you're aware that we had a weird

end of June president debate I think I

mean this is the earliest debate of my

lifetime an very unusually early

debate that the Democratic party wanted

to have and I think we now know why

they wanted to have it early because

the big takeaway was that President

Biden did very poorly and why that

impacts when they wanted to have it I

think that they had a suspicion that

this was going to happen and I'm not

the only one that thought this actually

this was rumored for weeks leading up to

the debate that the Democratic Party

wanted to have it early for two

reasons a in order to you know if Biden

did well then they would get a bump

going into you know the late summer

months and if he did poorly that would

give them time to try to adjust on the

Fly and maybe perhaps replace

him now I'm an independent voter and

I will be completely honest with you

guys okay I've never voted for Biden or

Trump I personally just have too many

irreconcilable differences with both of

them and again South Carolina is not a

swing state so my vote in the

presidential general election is

functionally meaningless now I will vote

in primaries when there is a

presidential primary I will simply

vote against one of those two and that's

exactly what I did this past year, and

Unfortunately my candidate did not

win in the primary and it is what it

is so long story short I don't have a

dog in this fight between Trump and

Biden so why bring it up well there's

some really important things that could

impact real estate in these presidential

elections in these presidential races

first

off I'm sure you know by now there are

rumors goore that Biden may have to

withdraw from the race or or maybe stiff

armed into withdrawing from the race or

you know or or or there might be

another other things that could happen

now I'm recording this on July 2nd

2024 I was going to record this

the past weekend but I waited as long

as I could in the event that some

important announcement about Biden came

out right we there were all these

stories about how the Biden family was

going to Camp David this past weekend

they were going to discuss the

president's decision what what he

wanted to do whether he wanted to stay

in or potentially

pivot

here we are July 2nd and all the

headlines that have come out since the

weekend are that the Biden family

unanimously support President Biden

staying in the race and I think that

kind of makes sense from a political

strategy for him right obviously he's a

very prideful man he's been in politics

his entire life career politician but

if he's not capable of running again you

would think he would just have to resign

right and the the president clearly

doesn't want to resign we haven't had

that happen a long time and so I

think this is kind of a Saving Face

thing like it or not whether you think

it's the right thing for him to do if

he says that he can't run in the race

because of his age how could he possibly

finish his term because of his age so I

think that this outcome was predictable

that being said

you know it it's I I still had to

wait to make sure that that was going to

happen because all bets are off right

now there's a lot of angst right now

in the Democrat World and in the

world in general about what's going on

with Biden as there should be he did not

look good in that debate if you didn't

watch it you need to watch it watch at

least the first 10 to 11 minutes and you

will see why people are freaking out

the way they are it was not a good

performance by him and I said on

Facebook which is you know the platform

that I do most of my political takes you

can't really win a debate anymore like

there's not a whole lot of evidence that

that debate wins really boost a

presidential campaign but you can lose

debate and there's multiple instan of

that and that can really damage a

campaign and I think that's exactly

what has happened in the case with Biden

he clearly lost the debate it's the

first time that Trump has had a debate

against a presidential Challenger that

the polls have said that he won which

again I didn't think it was a

particularly good debate by Trump either

I just think that Biden was just looked

horrible the entire time and so by

default Trump won but I think it's more

accurate to say that Biden lost long

story short for the time being I'm very

skeptical that Biden will withdraw from

the race there's no evidence that he's

going to do that but that being

said I it's still a possibility okay

we cannot completely rule it out and we

cannot completely rule out the

possibility of faithless electors in the

Democratic National Convention

abandoning

Biden is that likely to happen again not

likely to happen but I think it's very

possible what do I think is the

possibility that Biden is not on the

November ballot I'm putting it probably

at about 30% is probably what I would

think that might be a little high but

that's just kind of my gut feeling

that's not based off of polls or or any

statistics that's just what I think I

think 70% chance Biden is on the ballot

30% chance he's not either because he

finally decides to withdraw or you

know or or potentially faithless

electors go Rogue and we have an open

convention kind of situation and they

end up choosing someone else that would

be insane for them to do that I don't

think that's likely but it's it's always

possible we don't know what's happening

behind closed doors so we need to tease

out for a second here if Biden if that

30% scenario that number that I'm coming

up with happens who would actually

replace Biden now I keep hearing

Michelle Obama's name and I don't buy it

she has shown zero political interest

since her husband was in office up to

this point and that's just not my

opinion it's wellknown

that she hates how partisan the national

political scene is and she has even

irritated Democrats by not publicly

supporting the Biden campaign allegedly

this is hilarious because she is angry

at how the bidens have treated a friend

of hers who was once married to Hunter

Biden so she's decided to you know

essentially just abandon the Biden

campaign and be as quiet as possible you

know she only shows up when she

absolutely has to when she has no choice

because she's she's protective of her

friend you know what I appreciate that

she doesn't care she you polls

overwhelmingly indicate that she would

destroy Trump or probably anyone that

the Republicans put out there even if it

wasn't Trump I I think almost certainly

she would be the next president of the

US if she won and she has that power in

her hands she's just like no I'm just G

to defend my friend instead I think

that that's more

important and I'm sure you know this

is I I'm kind of you know downplaying

the situation obviously she saw

firsthand what it's like being president

and obviously she made a decision I

don't want that so I'm not buying that

that Michelle Obama is interested in

this at all I think we would have

already known that and I I think that

she would already be angling for it she

is not angling for it quite the opposite

she's doing things that are that are

angering people behind closed doors in

the Democrat in the Democratic Party

so what are some of the other names that

we're hearing well obviously California

governor Gavin news Michigan Governor

Gretchen Whitmer vice president

Kamala Harris and transportation

secretary Pete, budajudge those are

basically the four key people

outside Michelle Obama that we

keep hearing that could be a Biden

replacement here's all I'm going to say

about this I don't think it's gonna be

Buddha judge, and even if it was I

don't think he would beat Trump, yes he's

very well spoken, he would, he does

very well in debates from the

standpoint of just sheer debate

Acumen but he's not he doesn't have

that kind of personality that commands a

room in my opinion and unfortunately

like it or not in these debate kind of

settings that's really the only thing

that matters these debates people

don't listen to debates to try to you

know figure out who would be the debate

captain in high school or to you know

think about who's telling the most truth

you know a lot has been made about how

many lies that Trump said during the

debate somewhere between 30 and 50 lies

yeah he was lying the whole time like

anyone listening or watching could

pick up on that pretty easily like even

if you're a Trump supporter I think

you'd have a hard time denying that

but it doesn't matter that people don't

watch the debates in order to discern

truth from error they watch the debate

to to look at demeanors and to get

a sense of who can control a room who

has you know the ability to Banter back

and forth It's all the intangible things

that people are looking for in those

debate settings and just in general

when people are running for president

and I don't think Buddha judge has that

so on the contrary we have three others

Nome Whitmer and Harris and I think any

three of those could be possible in this

fairly unlikely scenario that Biden

withdrawals or or is kind of ousted

from the race and my thoughts on those

three candidates are this both the

governors Nome and Whitmer made

decisions during Co that really hurt the

housing market and caused extreme

housing and Rental inflation followed by

extreme housing and Rental deflation in

many cases Nome in particular governs

a state where the housing market is

dramatically different than any other

part of the US I mean what's happening

in California is not comparable to

what's happening anywhere else in the US

from housing standpoint this also

happens to be the state that Kamala

Harris is from as well she's from

California it's probably safe to assume

her perspective on real estate housing

Etc would be similar to new's

although you know we can't say for sure

because Camala Harris has kind of been

cloaked in obscurity since becoming vice

president now my belief is that real

estate is extremely local and it's best

left primarily to States and local

governments to decide what happen

happens in in local real estate

markets how much influence they are

going to have and that's more or less

the approach that Trump and Biden

have taken up to this point now they've

hinted that they are going to take a

more heavy-handed approach on real

estate you know if if Biden was if

either one of them were reelected at

this point we'll have to see they

don't have that track record yet but

I've talked about in the past you know

after Biden State of the Union I

criticized him for suggesting that he

was about to dump a bunch of stimulus

into into the real estate market that

would be really really bad and I'm

concerned that most that the most likely

Biden Replacements would try as well

to have a heavy hand on housing and

here's the thing this could actually

help me as a realtor for instance if

they did dump a bunch of stimulus into

real estate kind of like what Obama did

and and like what Biden has hinted that

he may do or that Trump has even made

some kind some similar suggestions not

exactly the same but but some similar

suggestions of trying to to stimulate

housing that would be great for me as

a realtor but it would be bad for real

estate and for the economy as a whole

and I am against it in general we want

real estate to be consistent we don't

like these major fluctuations it's

really bad for the market when all of a

sudden you get a bunch of stimulus that

that gets dumped in and now we have the

supply and demand Dynamics go absolutely

haywire and then when that stimulus goes

away then the pendulum goes to the other

end of the spectrum and we see the

housing you know the housing market

respond in the opposite way this is

exactly what happened when Obama

initiated his stimulus program during

the Global financial crisis it it

temporarily stimulated the housing

market but very quickly that money dried

up and the housing market actually

crashed even worse immediately following

that crashed even worse than it had

in 2008 by many

metrics so I'm against that I I wish

these people running for president or

considering running for president would

leave real estate alone leave it alone

we don't need your help States and

municipalities have it handled just do

your job as commander-in-chief focusing

on our position in terms of safety in

the world and all of that and leave

real estate to Governors and local

politicians okay

but I don't know if they're going to do

that so we need to watch this Biden

situation closely because again it could

have major Downstream impacts on the

housing market however there are some

additional Downstream impacts as well we

need to discuss even with the debate

debacle the race between Trump and Biden

is still a tossup with plenty of time

for Biden to make ground like we're the

beginning of July elections not until

November a lot of people don't start

tuning into these elections until

September October like let's be real

about this there's a lot of data out

there that indicates that and so

there's still plenty of time left for

Biden to make ground which I suspect he

will right we're going to start to see

this we're you know he's probably going

to hit rock bottom here in a in a week

or two and and then things will start to

recover as people start to forget about

the debate a little bit and and you know

the narrative starts to shift to where

like you know well Biden's still better

than Trump you know which a lot of

people will say we're already

starting to see people saying you know

even if Biden's a vegetable I would even

if a vegetable were running against

Trump I would vote for the vegetable

which is kind of an insane take in my

opinion but I'm seeing a lot of people

saying those sorts of things so

whatever but the thing that very few

people are talking about in all of this

that I think is a really really

pertinent discussion is the delicate

dance that the Federal Reserve has to do

in an election

year a little bit of background here

we've talked about this before but the

Federal Reserve is nonpartisan and

that's something they're very proud of

and believe it or not their actions are

consistent with them being nonpartisan

okay as it is the current Fed chair

and and that's what we call the Federal

Reserve for short the FED J Powell

he was appointed by Trump but retained

by Biden so you know in theory he

should not have any sort of political

leanings he has you know worked with

both presidents up to this point now

Trump has criticized him quite a bit

after he appointed him but but that's

the extent of of what Trump did to to

chair

Powell now Powell and the FED as a whole

they're watching inflation and

employment data really really closely

and a lot of other developed countries

have already lowered their rates in

response to softening inflation and

employment data but in the US the FED

has opted to keep their Benchmark rates

elevated which has the downstream impact

of mortgage rates also remaining

elevated when the Fed rate goes up

mortgage rates go up generally speaking

when the Fed rate goes down mortgage

rates go down generally

speaking and the FED has indicated that

they are probably lowering rates

potentially once this year now markets

think it will be twice but markets have

been off on this topic for multiple

years now and most think that the

logical thing for the FED to do is to

lower rates in September

but there's a problem lowering rates

could impact the November elections in

unintended ways and even if unintended

whoever is more negatively impacted

Trump or Biden and it's really hard to

know who would be impacted more more

negatively or positively if rates

were lowered we we just really don't

know but whoever is impacted more

negatively is likely to make a big stink

about it and particularly if Trump is

impacted negatively he's likely to to

really start to call out on the the

FED for being

partisan and and Trump has already

said that before by the way that that

particularly J Powell the FED shair does

things with political motivation and

we talked about this before but Trump

has also threatened this has been more

recently that he's done this to make

advances to try to bring the FED under

his control okay we talked about this on

the show that that I believe that

this is likely to happen at some point

whether Trump or Biden or someone else

but the FED is the last Ultra

powerful government organization to not

be partisan it is only a matter of time

before that changes a change with the

Supreme Court it's going to change with

the FED at some point it's just a matter

of time so all that to say rumors are

that the fed's preference is to hold the

line on rates until November which would

be after the elections actually the day

after the elections is the most likely

scenario in which we see the FED lower

the rates so perhaps we will see some

yearend relief to mortgage rates but

there's a very real possibility that

waiting this long for the fed you know

if the FED chooses to wait this long to

cut rates that actually could hurt the

economy and many economists think that

if rates aren't lowered soon sooner than

November unemployment will increase to

the point that the possibility of a soft

Landing goes away and the economy will

go straight into recession now as I'm

recording this we just have jobs opening

data that was just released and the

data was indicative that job openings

are are are basically they're going up

okay is is the the initial reading of

the data now this data gets revised but

essentially when job openings go up that

tends to be reflective of a stronger

economy right more employers are looking

to fill jobs that's a very simplistic

way of thinking about it but is a

generalistic that people use and

including the fed and immediately the

fed put out well actually even before

that data was released the Fed was

putting out a bunch of statements

particularly J Powell basically

telling people hey we know that there is

in his words a two-way risk what's he

saying a risk of waiting on on rate

Cuts versus a wait on immediately making

the rate Cuts what they don't want to do

is make cuts and then see inflation take

off again but they also don't want to

wait too long and then what tends to

happen historically is this unemployment

starts to snowball and it starts to

reach a point where it takes you know

even if the FED does something the the

the FED just tinkering with rates that's

a very blunt force tool and it doesn't

have immediate impacts that's why

they've been waiting so long to see

the impact of the rate increases that

they've done the past two years right

they've been waiting to see because it's

a lagging measure it takes time for for

these rate increases or decreases to

impact things so that is something

that that they are again weighing very

closely and trying to figure out trying

to get the timing just right oddar they

won't get the timing just right but

muddled in all of this of these

presidential elections so now we have to

to wait and see how all this shakes out

to me I think it's pretty clear that

rates are going to remain where they are

until at least September and if I had to

bet I would bet it's going to be after

the elections before we see any sort of

a rate decrease because the

national political climate just demands

that in my opinion and so we're

unlikely to see major morgage rate

decrease I mean even if they wait

until until November to to

decrease rates if they only decrease

rates by 25 basis points that's really

not going to have a whole lot of impact

anyway on on mortgage rates in my

opinion so so it is what it is this

is the political climate we find

ourselves in and housing is wedged in

between all of this all of this that's

happening and and of course that's

something that we will'll just have

to keep track of because we have no

control over any of this this is all

outside of our control and so we just

have to track it and see what happens

okay that's all for the national stuff

let's pivot to count and state elections

which I'm much more passionate about and

and I want to talk big picture for a

moment but before we do that we need to

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a free quote today all right back to

State and local politics to catch to the

chase I want to say that there is no

longer an incumbency advantage in South

Carolina we've seen this brewing for a

while, but I think now we can

definitively say there is no incumbency

advantage in our state and you might

even say that nationally as well in a

lot of ways now

usually historically if you're an

incumbent name recognition alone would

give you an advantage over the field

particularly in local elections where

people hardly know what the

people running are what their

platforms are what they what they're

doing because they just don't have

exposure to these people but that

incumbency advantage is going away

okay voters are angry and the anger is

varied and widespread and many voters

are not angry about the same things

right they're just angry and when you

have a consortium of angry voters that

anger is directed rightly or wrongly at

incumbents the people currently in

office who are running for reelection so

long story short many incumbents were

voted out in our state primaries that

happened a few weeks ago and the runoffs

that happened this past week so

what's going on here well I've discussed

in the past the people getting voted out

due to anti-development sentiment of the

nimi crowd is a big phenomenon here

we've had a lot of people that have been

voted out strictly because they got

lped in with being Ro development

whatever that means and the nimi not in

my backyard crowd that does not want

development near their home and and

that wants to impose their beliefs on

everyone else as everyone does these

days they have been systematically

finding ways to get these people out of

office and out of County Council and

out of city council and this was a

factory this year as well as it has been

for the past several years but a lot

more played in I I did not feel like the

develop v m emphasis was as big the

anti-development emphasis I did not see

it as big as what I've seen in previous

elections now I've already mentioned

that South Carolina is a very Republican

state one of Trump's strongest States if

not his strongest State arguably and

the Discord around primaries ultimately

became around who the real conservatives

are that are running which to me is

kind of silly right these are primaries

and and yet we still had people

saying that certain people running for

County Council were quote unquote rhinos

Republicans and name only and I I

don't know to me it's kind of ridiculous

I personally don't think that we should

even have partisan County council

elections like why is that even

necessary why does it matter whether

you're Republican or or democrat like

that name means something very different

on the national level than it does on

the county level so I would prefer in

order to avoid mudding the waters that

we didn't even have partisan County

elections but it is what it is this is

the world that we that we live in and as

a result of that a few themes emerged in

these Republican primaries that

happened on the state and local level

one was using Trump support as a litmus

test I saw this over and over again

people wanted to know what the people

running for County Council what their

views on Trump were and if anyone had

ever expressed that they were

dissatisfied with Trump that got blasted

everywhere on mailers you know on

social media anywhere that you can

imagine that's that is a part of the

local political narrative anyone that

was anti-Trump or even indifferent

towards Trump they got completely

hammered for that another one's

anti-tax settlement right County Council

recently raised property taxes and I

was against that that was something that

you know I told people to that they need

to be aware of it guess what nobody

showed up to County Council to to

protest I shouldn't say nobody very few

people showed up to protest it County

Council passed it and now people are

angry about it and so anti-tax

sentiment that was a big one a lot of

debate over who is truly a fiscal

conservative versus who

isn't another one number three social

conservative I had a bite a moment there

social conservatism

really bled into these into these local

races and I've talked about this before

I don't like this I don't like social

conservatism to have a major impact on

County races I'm not going to say that

it's completely unimportant but County

Council and coroner and whatnot you know

what they believe on the Second

Amendment what they believe on abortion

things like that okay that tells you a

little bit about their thought process

but they don't have impact

policy-wise into those things those are

things that happen on the state National

level and so I feel like it is a

convenient distraction from asking these

people about topics that they

actually can impact like infrastructure

like taxes things of that

nature and so I'm I'm not a I'm not a

huge fan of that but that definitely

played heavily into into these R

races and as well a lot of irrational

scares about special interest groups

supporting one candidate or another with

many who have feel with the quote

unquote Freedom caucus or who simply

identify as Ultra conservative taking

ironically in my opinion a Bernie

Sanders esque approach of telling voters

that if their candidates got money from

any group that wasn't Greenville based

they were being influenced by special

interest groups okay very fascinating

Development I've never heard this

used quite to this extent on the local

and state level but but it was used

very very heavily and that was

that was interesting a lot of people

stoking concerns about candidate X or

candidate y they received money from

this group outside of Greenville

they're taking dark money they're doing

back door deals you know all this kind

of stuff and I again I've been

involved in the background of the

political scene in Greenville for quite

some time I've never seen that reached

the point that it reached but it was a

very effective strategy for for some

people that ran for office and let's

talk about that point first okay

because I I do want to discuss this

and to diffuse some misinformation out

there or to disarm some misinformation

out there I know a bit how money flows

from the special interest groups from

political action committees and the like

here's how it typically Works usually

there is a Greenville based committee

that makes a recommendation to a South

Carolina based pack it might be even

outside of South Carolina could be a DC

based pack but it's typically coming

from a Greenville group right otherwise

how would a state level pack or how

would a pack outside of the state know

who they're going to support for a local

election where there is very little

information about the candidate the

recommendation has to come from the

local level almost always the only

exception that I am aware of is if one

of the candidates really

did something that irritated you know

one of these special interest groups and

that typically only comes from an

incumbent right and in a lot of cases

the the back and forth I was seeing with

people over these special Inc groups and

over the money wasn't about

incumbents it was about people that were

running for the first

time so the money that comes from

outside of Greenville because that's

where the money is located right these

these packs these special interest

groups are not Greenville based it's

coming from outside of Greenville but in

reality the money is actually coming

from Greenville because it's a

Greenville committee or subcommittee

that made the recommendation to spend it

in a Greenville race to a state or

National Group so we just need to be

honest about that to start right when

people talk about money coming in from

outside of Greenville you have to really

get down to was it did it really come

from outside of Greenville or was it a

Greenville group that's affiliated with

a bigger group group that ultimately

made that recommendation so we'll

start with that I'm not going to get

into specifics on which campaign I felt

like was benefiting from actual

Greenville money versus not versus

actually getting dark money from DC or

from Colbia or whatever the case may

be that's not my point I just want to

make sure that you guys understand that

oftentimes when people talk about this

this dark money and use all these

terminologies they actually don't know

what they're talking about and and

oftentimes it is misleading okay

now that part I find interesting but

it's not the most important thing to me

the part that I think is significant is

the anti-tax sentiment and the focus on

social conservatism

and I I also want to mention this I

actually didn't intend to mention this

but one thing was interesting I'm not

going to really talk about the the Trump

support as a litus test point that I

made earlier we we kind of see what's

happening there National politics is

bleeding into all levels of politics it

is what it is but there's one really

interesting race and that was between

William Timmons an incumbent versus

Allan Morgan who sorry Adam

Adam Morgan sorry we have two Morgans

and they're both brothers that that

run in in our area and I frequently

get them confused I believe it was Adam

Morgan going up against William Timmons

and so we had an interesting situation

Timmons is a Trump guy and an incumbent

and Morgan was running on social

conservatism and low tax and all of that

Morgan ultimately lost he was one of the

few people that was associated with that

freedom caucus group that actually lost

and you know what I think it was 100%

because Timmons got the Trump support so

that was an interesting thing that

happened we saw that Trump support

Trumps some some of these other

things that people are concerned about

now Morgan didn't lose in Greenville

his district included Greenville and

Spartanburg he lost Spartanburg really

badly and he won Greenville by a

hair and and so Spartanburg was

actually the deciding factor Spartanburg

people don't realize more conservative

slash Trump lining for those that

that don't prefer the term conservative

more in that camp than Greenville

County at this stage in the game okay

all right all right kind of kind of got

off off track there but I just found

that to be an interesting Dynamic okay

let's go back to the antix sentiment and

emphasis on socialist conservatism

really influencing these races I

personally consider myself to be pretty

conservative at the very least fiscally

I think I'm pretty conservative

socially although people would

probably claim that I lean more left

socially than most in South Carolina but

that's only because South Carolina is so

socially conservative really hard to be

right of that right it's it's almost

impossible to be more conservative than

the average South Carolina resident

so if someone says that I'm more

liberal socially than the average South

Carolinian I say okay I I think 95% of

the US population would would be that

way but I I digress all right I

feel like people have taken these social

litness tests way too far in my opinion

people people I understand are upset

that property taxes were raised by the

county I've already mentioned that I was

a part of a committee that attempted to

prevent the county from Raising property

taxes the county didn't listen people

didn't listen they didn't go out to

protest and so it happened and I get

that people were upset about it I was

upset about it as well I don't want to

see my property taxes going up but

unless a candidate essentially promised

no tax increases they were not voted in

that was the way this went if there were

any suspicions that a candidate was

running and would potentially increase

taxes on any level they lost their

primary and there was no potential

for a nuanced discussion and people want

Greenville County Council to fix the

roads and improve our infrastructure and

they want our state to do all these

things well in the county on the county

level we need over $2 billion to just to

fix our roads and the money isn't there

I've talked about this before I'm not

going to rehash at all but I just

want to ask people if you're you know if

running on an anti-tax or if you're

voting for people simply because they're

anti-tax what do you really want do

you want infrastructure to deteriorate

and not be able to be repaired or do you

want tax increases because you can't

have both you can't have lower taxes and

improved infrastructure we are past that

point okay there are a lot of economic

theories out there that that claim

that you could have your cake and eat it

and we know

we know now that's not possible right

people are still I mean you go on next

door every day people complain about the

roads next next door this social media

platform for for Neighbors basically

it's a nasty platform I don't recommend

it people are complaining about the

roads all the time the same people

complaining about taxes complain about

the

roads where's the money going to come

from right and and they say well we

need to get it we need to get money from

the state and and from the from the

federal government guys we've gotten

money we've gotten grants and whatnot

and it's not enough to fix the problem

you you can't have it both ways so I'm

fine you know again I'm not a big tax

person myself I generally am anti-tax

myself I would love if we could abolish

the income tax in South Carolina

unfortunately ironically one of the

people that ran on a zero income tax

platform did not win and there's a

variety of reasons for that but

again you have to be don't be

disingenuous okay you have to choose

either I'm anti-tax and we're going to

have a deteriorating infrastructure I'm

okay with that or I want infrastructure

improvements to be made and we need to

raise the money for that in one way or

another and the the simplest way from

point A to point B is tax increases

because budget tinkering is not going to

produce two billion plus dollars it's

just not we don't have that sort of

budget

now we have a penny sales tax coming on

the November ballot to fix a huge

portion of the roads in Greenville take

care of essentially half that two

billion dollar deficit and I've said

before that even on this podcast I've

said before that even though I am

relatively anti-tax again and by

relatively I mean I'm like way more

anti-tax than than a lot of people

perhaps not compared to most people in

the state of South Carolina because I

see both sides and I've I've seen

that our tax structure currently isn't

enough but I am an anti-tax guy in

general I have pretty libertarian views

that I hold to and in my opinion

despite that this Penny sales tax is

the only fair solution that County

Council has been able to come up with in

decades to truly make a dent in the

infrastructure particularly the road

problems that we have here in the

state but now that we've seen how these

elections played out I'm concerned the

tax won't pass and we'll be back to

square one we'll be back to everyone

just bickering over the roads and nobody

doing anything about it and basically

the ability of that tax to pass hinges

on Democratic voters turning out voters

who typically are more proax because

I don't anticipated getting much

Republican support So in November if

Democrats stay home because they're you

know discouraged by the Biden campaign

or whatnot we are not going to see

the penny sales tax pass and we're not

going to see roads improved it's really

that simple now what about social

issues well I'm going to I typically

don't name names but this is right out

there in the public you can find it very

easily and so I'm just gonna say it

Steve Shaw who is the councilman in my

district got reelected with a heavy

focus on social issues why County

Council has almost no impact on social

issues right already talked about this

and I saw on his Facebook page just this

cracked me up some people Express

concern over the County's involvement in

schools and councilman Shaw said that

the schools are outside of what the

County Council can influence and yet

he's focused on making Greenville County

it was a big campaign point of his a

second amendment Sanctuary which is also

something that the County Council

doesn't influence I mean come on Second

Amendment does is not a county level the

the Constitution is not a county level

docent like

and the state has made South Carolina

one of the most Second Amendment

friendly States already in the United

States nobody needed Greenville County

to be a second amendment Sanctuary I

don't even know what that means it's

it's not something that's important so I

I personally have issues with with

people playing both game playing both

sides on the social issues thing saying

well we're not involved with schools or

libraries or things like that but we are

involved with the Second Amendment

come on that's disingenuous I'm not

trying to pick on Shaw specifically I

saw many people who ran talk out of both

sides of their mouth on these issues but

you know what it worked Shaw got Shaw

won his primary in a runoff and good for

him he he made he played a political

game and he

won but long story short I'm not

particularly optimistic about the

direction that that local or state

politics are heading in by my count now

seven out of 12 Greenville County

Council people will be brand new or will

have bet on the council for four years

or fewer after the November elections

and rumors are that those seven intend

to essentially do a hostile takeover of

County Council right they've got a

majority so the seven intend to gang

up on the on the more experienced

five members who are are who remain

in order to take power away from them

and turn the county quote un quote more

conservative which listen Greenville

County's already again it's very conser

I don't know how you can make it more

conservative but this is this is what

they're what they think that they're

going to do and if you're conservative

listening to this that might sound great

on the surface but what it most likely

means is focusing on conservative virtue

signaling right talking about the Second

Amendment and abortion and things that

the county doesn't impact virtue

signaling and not actually getting

anything done on infrastructure issues

that need to be improved not to mention

likely more measures to Stonewall

development in the area right that

something I've talked about extensively

in the past that I haven't talked about

much in this podcast but I mean how

are we going to raise more tax revenue

if we're going to Stonewall development

like that's literally the only way that

we can keep increasing tax revenue

without actually increasing taxes

similar things happened as well on the

state level in the House and Senate

major major underdogs won many races it

was really shocking and I don't

necessarily think that that's a bad

thing it could be a very good thing

I'm I'm actually happy that there's not

an incumbency advantage anymore but some

very good legislators lost their seats

not on the basis of the record but on

the basis of Voters just being angry or

paranoid in my opinion and the state

house in particular which was already

incredibly divided got got voted in

some people that I think will just

divide it even more and I I'm not

optimistic for the State of our state

legislature after these elections

long story short the political winds in

the state and County are clearly

shifting and this is going to have major

Downstream effects on real estate it

would appear to me that property taxes

are likely to not be increased under the

new guard but we'll see what they think

once they realize that we don't have

enough money for them to really do

anything without some sort of tax

increase like they eventually they're

going to receive enough phone calls from

their constituents complaining about

roads and infrastructure that they're

going to have to tell them something and

what are they going to tell them I have

a hunch at some point these anti-tax

people are going to start whispering

amongst themselves where can we increase

taxes would property taxes be be the way

to go about it in their mind I don't

know for all the talk about affordable

housing not one person who has voted in

the County Council or the state

legislature has in my opinion any

meaningful solutions for housing

affordability not on their radar they

don't care they talk out of both sides

of their mouth they say they're going to

improve housing affordability but but

all of their proposals for development

would do the opposite and and

that's just going to make real estate

less affordable so elections have

consequences and while I am bullish on

South Carolina and Greenville in the

long term you guys know that this is

a bit of a downer episode but you guys

know I'm bullish on the area in the long

term I am concerned about what these

next four years are going to look like

and and personally I'm looking at ways

into bring more account

accountability particularly to County

Council because that's something I'm

again I don't feel like there's a lot of

good information out there on what

they're doing but that's something

that we'll have to talk about another

day because I'm not exactly sure how I'm

gonna how I'm going to go about that or

what exactly I'm going to do I'm just

kind of bouncing some ideas around in my

head if you guys want to give me your

ideas for that or have ideas for what

you think would be helpful please let me

know and that's a great way to end this

episode because my contact information

is in the show notes and that's how you

will let me know what you're thinking

and as well Piper Insurance Group their

information is in the show notes

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