Hello everyone and Welcome to another

episode of Selling Greenville your

favorite real estate podcast here in

Greenville, South Carolina, I'm your host

as always Stan Mccune realtor right here in

Greenville, South Carolina, and you can

find all of my contact information in

the show notes, if you need to reach out

to me for any of your real estate needs

and just a reminder as always please

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could do that today we're going to be

taking a look back at and this is

something that I started to do last year

and I enjoyed doing this it's it's a

look back to bold predictions I made

before

2024 about what was going to happen this

year so we're doing a midyear bold

predictions look back to see how

things are coming how are my bold

predictions that I made coming along and

you know I intentionally do try to make

predictions that are bold and that have

a really good chance of not working out

and you guys are about to to find out

that a lot of my bold predictions

have not worked out but that's okay

because there's still there's value

in formulating those bold

predictions and and using data and

interpreting data and then there's value

and also just following up on it and

seeing okay how have things changed from

from what it looked like they were

going to be six or seven months ago so

let's jump Right In I've when I did

this episode the first episode The the

Bold predictions back in I guess it was

either December or January that the

episode actually released

I did 10 bold predictions so we're

going to go through each of these and

just look at how they're doing what what

does it look like does it look like my

predictions are going to come to pass or

Not by the way if you're watching on

YouTube you'll notice that that I

look like I've been like working out

in the Sun or something my hair is

all greasy and everything that is

because I currently have no hot water in

my house that's getting remedied it's

kind of a long story but yeah

I've not had a chance to take a shower

today I look all nasty and greasy

because it's like 200 degrees outside

and and there's that but without

further Ado let's jump right into the

Bold predictions that I made at the

beginning of this year and how they're

doing so far starting right with number

one I'm going to do these in the same

order that I did them when I did this

episode six months ago number one my

first bold prediction was that the FED

will begin cutting rates in the second

quarter of 20

24

well we are now in the third quarter of

2024 and no Fed rate Cuts have happened

now it's been several years since

we've really even had any debate on what

the FED will do and and I think that's

important is that we're finally this

year we've finally had debate over what

the FED is going to do now we've talked

about rates going up and down at

different times in this podcast so I

want to be clear on

something mortgage rates fluctuate right

they've been fluctuating well we'll

get to that in a second but they've been

fluctuating within about a half a

percent Point throughout

2024 and that has nothing to do with

what the FED is actually doing outside

of basically it's the markets trying

to preempt what the FED is going to do

so as rates go up and down that's

markets responding to statements that

the FED makes that's markets responding

to data that's coming out that's not

actually the FED doing it although they

they the FED is aware that sometimes

what they say well pretty much all the

time what they say impacts markets

and so they're aware of that so

sometimes they will intentionally try to

steer the market in a certain way if

they feel like rates you know people

are pricing in too heavily that the

fed's going to drop rates too much too

fast they might come out with a real

hawkish statement saying no we're going

to be we're not going to lower rates

anytime soon and vice versa so I

just want to make sure that you

understand that the FED has not touched

their rates in quite some time but

most people think that they that they

will now depending on what you read

that this is where the disagreements

begin and where the the debate that I

referenced to a couple of minutes ago

this is where the debate is happening

depending on on who you read and where

you read it the FED might be making

their first rate Cuts this month in July

I think that's highly unlikely and

and I have a lot of good reasons for

believing that that is absolutely not

going to happen I'm recording this on

July the 9th we'll find out later

this week if they're going to cut rates

this month I'm almost positive is not

going to happen I'd wager a lot of money

that is not going to happen this month

some people think September is when it's

going to happen other people think

November is when it's going to happen

and we've teased out some of these in

in my podcast I did this past week I

talked a little bit about how the FED

is playing the politics game and

and there's a good chance that perhaps

they should cut rates in September but

we'll wait until November strictly

because they don't want to be perceived

as interfering in the elections so

that's a possibility I've heard some

economists and experts predict that

they won't even drop rates until next

year I've I've heard some say that

they won't make any rate cuts at all

anytime soon I even heard an analyst

say that they think the FED will

increase rates this year before then

cutting them by the end of the year

with a net zero gain basically that

will end up where we started by the end

of

2024 long story short nobody knows

what's happening and the phrase that

we've heard all year is higher for

longer that's the FED trying to again

trying to temper the Market's

expectation that are going to be

dropped and so long story short I was

I was wrong this was a bold prediction

that was inaccurate the only question

is it's inaccurate by how much I

predicted the second quarter at the time

that was actually quite a bold

prediction a lot of people thought it

was going to be a first quarter cut or

no cut so I predicted a second

quarter rate cut that did not

happen it's looking currently like

it's going to be either a third or a

fourth quarter rate cut that to me is

the most likely scenario if I had to put

money on it I would say November that

would be my you know if I was revising

this bold prediction I would say it

would be a fourth quarter a fourth

quarter cut and this has surprised

everyone right the the labor market

being stronger Than People expected

the stock market being Stronger Than

People expected just markets in general

have have weathered the storm a lot

more resiliently than people than and

experts thought they would and so

here we are the result of that is rates

are exactly the same as they were six or

seven months ago and my bold prediction

number one was inaccurate all right bold

prediction number two we're not going to

spend as much time on each of these I

said that there will be no recession in

2024 and that we will achieve a soft

Landing well some people will debate

again the definition of recession

actually a this is a really big

debate right now because the

traditional metrics for measuring

recessions kind of FL out the window

after the pandemic but long story

short nobody right now thinks that we're

in a recession some people if they're

looking at certain models like the Sam

sahm model etc etc might think

that we're close to a recession this

is going to be debated but me

personally I feel like this prediction

is looking good at the moment, I feel

like the likelihood of there being a

an obvious recession like something a

recession that everyone agrees okay this

a recession I think that's pretty

unlikely for the remainder of this year

Now by pretty unlikely I would say

probably 75% maybe 70% so there's still

a decent chance it's just not the

majority opinion in in among most

economists it's not my opinion I think

we will achieve this quote unquote soft

Landing which is essentially

inflation coming down without the

economy going into recession that's the

the simplest way of thinking about

that and and so we'll see we'll see

how this plays out throughout the rest

of his year but at the moment I feel

pretty good about that prediction so one

for two so far or or at least again

what appears like it will end up being

one for two number three production

number three I said that mortgage rates

will spend the entire year in the sixes

and that the average for the year

will be in the highest sixes when it's

all said and done absolutely not I was

way off on this I said and again

this was based on mortgage news DA's

average rate that they had for the

year it's Accord in mortgage News

Daily the rates have basically been on

the seven in the sevens all year so

that did not play out at all we did we

never saw those those low rates

those lower rates come through we've

we've been in the sevens pretty much all

year so I will take the L on that one

and say that I'm one for three so far

number four inventory will remain below

pre- pandemics for the entire year

another one I've got to take the L on we

are already pretty much right at pre

pandemic levels so I think you know

at the end of the year I might be able

to make the argument that on average we

were below pre we were below

prepandemic levels but the way I

worded this I said that it would be

below pre-pandemic levels for the entire

year we're pretty much already at

pre-pandemic levels so so that's

where we are inventory has gone up we've

had a lot more sellers enter the market

than buyers and the result of that is

inventory has has has gone up

substantially it's gone up by 25% this

year

so so I am I have to take another L

on that one and say I am one for four so

far projected number five pending

sales for the first quarter will be down

year on-ear and will increase probably

slightly for the remaining three

quarters well I was at least

partially wrong in this because pendings

were actually up in the first quarter

that came as a bit of a surprise now

we don't yet have the data for June yet

and if if you listen to my market

stats episode that I do pretty much

every month we also won't yet have

the May numbers the accurate May numbers

until later this month so there's really

no way for me to say for sure what's

going to happen in the second quarter of

this year it's hard to say you know

whether it's up or down but it looks

like it's going to be close it's going

to be really really close one way or the

other I think that there's a good chance

that I end up being half right half

wrong the half wrong being pending sales

were not down year onye in the first

quarter but there's a good

likelihood that we will see them

increase perhaps slightly for the

remaining three quarters so I'm

either one for five or 1.5 for for five

so far not great not great but hey I

hold my myself accountable which is more

than our politicians do so so yeah

I maybe I should be a politician I don't

know on to number six but before we

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Insurance all right bold prediction

number six I said that days on the

market wouldn't go above 60 days for the

entire year in the greater Greenville

area this one it's looking like I nailed

it this is the first one I had to we had

to get through half of these before I

finally found one that's like okay I'm

pretty confident that this one's going

to be accurate now we got up to 57 days

on Market in February so I was starting

to be like oh boy I might even lose out

on this one but it's come down since

then and days on Market again we don't

have the June numbers yet but the last

May numbers that we had said it was

sitting at 46 days so that seems

pretty good right now in a normal year

we would see days on Mark Market go into

the 60s at some point and by normal I

mean pre- pandemic wouldn't be uncommon

for us to see it go into the 60s but

right now we're not even in the 50s

we're in the 40s I feel pretty good that

that one's going to hold number seven

the number of single family closings

will rise slightly for 2024 versus 2023

between approximately 0 to

3% this is in spite of the fact this

bold prediction was in spite of the fact

that many experts expected there to be

National declines

now B so basically I I went against

the national experts that saw National

clients I said that there was going to

be an increase in single family closings

just not a huge increase 0 to 3% and

so where does this stand so far well

based on my numbers again I don't have

the the official greater Greenville

Association realtor stats yet but based

on the numbers that I ran personally by

looking in the multiple listing service

I came to the conclusion that

year-to date through the end of June

closings were up for single family homes

were up

5.6% year onye so that's way higher

than obviously what the experts

thought that's way higher than even what

I predicted but we still have half a

year left and as we get closer to

elections and all of that and and the

second half of the Year tends to slow

down anyway I think we're going to see a

pretty big slowdown the second half this

year is what I think so I feel pretty

good that this 0 to 3% number I think

is very much in play I think that

we're going to see much slower months

towards the the end of the end of the

year into the fourth quarter and all of

that and I think that the when it all

balances out I think I feel good that I

will that I will nail that one so

what are we at we're at something like

three out of seven if I if I remember

correctly is what I'm at again just

projecting CU we don't know for sure

but I'm projecting that I'm going to be

right on three out of these first seven

that we've discussed number eight

multif family sales in Greenville MLS

will exceed 100 sales for the year in

the for the first time ever at least as

far back as I can go in the multip

listing service and as of the end of

June there were 61 multif family

closings year to date so that's looking

really good right I mean if if that

continues at that pace which it likely

won't but if it were that would put us

at over 100 20 closings for the year

now I'm already saying that I think

there will be a

Slowdown but we only had need to have

39 multif family closings in the next 6

months in order for for this

prediction to hit I feel good about

that so at the moment it's looking like

four for eight I'm making a little bit

of a comeback here number nine

foreclosures and foreclosure sales for

single family will increase slightly but

remain well below pre-pandemic norms and

and I went on to explain at the time

that that there's logic behind that

covid borrowers can they have more

options for refinancing and getting out

of delinquencies and all of that long

story short I've said multiple times

that we've seen a little bit of an

increase in forclosures and short sales

but not enough to move the needle this

is both on the national level and on the

local level and so basically I mean I

nailed this prediction right cuz this

year is the first time in Greenville

that we've seen in years foreclosures

and short sales I've not seen any in I

mean by any we might see one or two

here or there but I mean we've seen

actual like you know a handful of them

per month has been what has happened

recently and that's been definitely an

increase over previous years but still

nothing right you still you can't make a

living you know my broker Matthew

Thrift he he made a living at one time

only selling as a realtor foreclosures

nobody can do that not one person can do

that in this market I know house

flippers that they made a living just

flipping houses that were foreclosures

nobody can do that in this market

either so foreclosures and and short

sales are not increasing dramatically

but they are increasing slightly and

we've seen this in the National Data as

well with delinquencies so I'm saying

at the moment that I am 5 for9 on

these predictions happy about that

number 10 median prices Will Rise by 3

to 6% for the entire year although we

may see some negative monthon Monon

prints now this one's going to be very

interesting to track because the

first three months of the year were

exactly what we needed with prices it

for this prediction to happen basically

for the first three months of the year

January February March we had year on

year price increases in in the three 3

and A2 4 4 and 1/2 percent range and

so it was basically right in between

that 3 to 6% but April and May both fell

under with April being a 2.4%

year-on-year increase and may being flat

no increase which we just discussed a

few months ago or a few weeks ago rather

and we don't have the June numbers

yet but if I had to make a prediction I

don't think that June will come in above

above 3% either I think that the June

median price point year-on-year will end up

being below a 3% increase so this one

is going to keep us on our toes and it's

a toss-up right because the first three

months nailed it and then the most

recent three months not so much so

this one's still in a state of flux at

the moment I think if I if I

aggregated this all out I think that I

would not be in that 3 to 6% rate

range so I'm going to have to say that I

don't have this one currently but unlike

a bunch of the other ones where you know

with regard to the rate cuts and with

regard to the mortgage rates being

in the sixes and inventory being below

pre-pandemic levels for the whole year

those are already shot right there's no

way that I can get get those before the

end of the year I've already lost those

this is one where I'm currently

losing but I can make a comeback and I

think that there is a decent chance that

I do but we'll have to see I mean

probably out of all of these this is the

one that I feel the least confident

about which direction it will go I

still feel like there's a good chance at

the end of the year we're around 3% 3 to

4% year on-year increase or

appreciation if you want to use that

word even though I prefer not to use

that word when we're talking about

medium prices but for Simplicity you

can you can just call it appreciation

just say you know we might have three to

four % appreciation but I could also see

it being closer to 1 to 2% if if

we you know we might have some down

months I mean there's a lot that could

happen again it's an election year very

unpredictable these rates are higher

than people expected for longer than

people expected so there's a lot of

stuff happening that's just causing a

lot of uncertainty and so we will

know in six months because I'm not going

to bring this back up again until the

end of the year and and when the end

of year comes around we'll go back

through this and then we'll see did I

end did I get half of them right did I

get slightly less than half of them

right did I get maybe six or six and a

half out of 10 bold predictions right I

don't like any of those numbers right I

want to get at least eight or nine of

these right unfortunately that's not

going to happen this year so I'm going

to have to keep improving as a bold

predictions person don't go out and make

any bets on the basis of my bold

predictions okay this is why I always

have to remind you guys that I'm not

offering any kind of financial or

investment advice because at the end of

the day we're all we're not throwing

darts at at a dart board but we're

interpreting data in different ways and

then throwing the dart at the dart board

based on the data that that we're

interpreting and and sometimes we're

right sometimes we're wrong generally

people that are right six to seven

times out of 10 they are very very

seasoned investors and those that are

that have no idea what they're doing

they're only going to be right you know

they might make a few lucky guesses and

get right two or three times out of 10

so we'll keep track we'll see what's

happening you know as we go through

the year if you guys are close listeners

you'll probably be able to reverse

engineer how many of these bold

predictions I'm getting right or wrong

but we won't be talking about this

for another year but for the time being

I'm about halfway there hopefully I'll

get a few more of these right after

it's all said and done but thank you

guys for listening I appreciate each and

every one of you if you if you could

just hit that subscribe like rate review

button all of those things that would be

great my contact information is in the

show notes if you need a realtor in the

Greenville area or outside of the

Greenville area I can set you up with

someone like that as well and just

a reminder as always Piper Insurance

Group their contact information is in

the show notes please reach out to them

for any of your insurance needs

homeowners Auto Umbrella we will talk

again next time