Hello everyone and Welcome to another

episode of Selling Greenville your

favorite real estate podcast here in

lovely Greenville, South Carolina I'm

your host as always Stan Mccune realtor

right here in Greenville, South Carolina

and you can find all of my contact

information in the show notes if you

need to reach out to me for any of your

real estate needs just a reminder as

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appreciation for this show, if you're

watching this on YouTube okay, and I do

have this on YouTube I have both the

audio and video on YouTube two different

things but if you search selling

Greenville podcast you'll find it if

you're watching on YouTube you'll notice

a little bit of an upgrade and the

upgrade is to my background I've been

telling you guys for a while that I was

planning to upgrade the video I've been

talking about this for a very long time

and it's finally happening there are

more upgrades coming but this video

experience is going to improve as I

have the time to improve it I'm very

busy and this you know getting the

video which doesn't get a ton of watches

quite frankly in comparison to the

listens I get on the audio version

improving the the video is not a huge

priority for me at the moment but it is

something that I plan to to keep

improving and ultimately here my goal

is to start doing some little shorts and

maybe one minute videos that will go

on my YouTube channel on Insta

Facebook, other social media

platforms because I think that that

could be an interesting way for me to

break down some of the data that I'm

looking at every single day and that

you guys that are listening really like

but that maybe the casual

real estate person person

that's interested in real estate

casually they might not be willing to

listen to a 20, 30, 40 minute episode of

me talking and rambling about real

estate, but maybe they're willing to

listen to a 45 or 60c clip so there's

going to be more of that coming so I'm

really excited about all of that and I

hope you guys are along for the ride and

all of that as far as today's episode

is concerned however this is

something this is actually an episode

I've been thinking about for a really

long long time I actually started

prepping for it a while ago and then I

decided you know what I I had too

many other things I needed to talk about

too many other things that were

pressing and so I decided to put this

on the back burner and then I recently

came back to it basically I had a

question in my mind of people that

have bought homes the past few years and

then ended up finding that they had to

sell their

home in the past few years so people

that bought their home let's just say it

a different way people that bought their

home in the quote unquote top of the

market and have had to sell their home

since then how are they doing right

that's that was the original question

that I had in my mind that led to this

episode the second question is okay I

want to assess you know whether people

that bought a home you know the past few

years and then ended up having to sell

it whether they ended up losing money

how they did what all that looks like

I had to then figure out how am I going

to actually assess this and

what am I actually going to do

datawise to try to figure out to try to

get to the bottom of of how are these

sellers doing that purchased a home a

few years ago when the market was quote

unquote at its peak and have now had to

sell since then I'll get into the

nuts and bolts of of how I analyze the

data here in a minute but just want

to start by saying this when people buy

a house they always have an idea in

their mind for how long they plan to

live there for some it's a starter

home that they plan to live in for just

a few years for others they think

that their home is going to be their

forever home although it rarely works

out that way which I'll get to it a

second and for others of course

you've got what some people call a

stepup home basically the home that's

between a starter and a forever home

maybe it's a home that people are buying

because they need more space for their

kids

or maybe it's just a home that they

don't see themselves living in Forever

for one reason or

another but that being said even

though people have a time frame in mind

for how long they plan to live in a home

I almost always find as I alluded to

just a second ago that people end

up moving earlier than planned it's very

rarely that people end up moving later

than planned almost all people end up

moving earlier than they thought they

were going to when they initially bought

the home and that's because of people

having job changes divorces that happen

unexpected pregnancies deaths in a

family or failing Health among

among extended family members or or even

immediate family members all these

things play a role into causing people

to have to change their location end

up having to move prior to when they

plan

to and unfortunately there are some

situations where moving prematurely can

be a big problem so for instance if

you're one of the first ones to buy a

home in a new development right new

construction and you're one of the first

ones it's the first phase if you don't

know new construction tends to happen in

multiple phases the number phases varies

based on the the development and based

on the developer sometimes it's

multiple different developers that will

go into the same Community but long

story short if you're one of the

first ones to buy in a new development

odds are development is going to

continue on in most communities for a

few more years it again it depends on

the size of the community and other

factors but a lot of times you know

developers right now they're wanting

communities to be big enough to be worth

their while so usually it's multiple

phases so if you buy in phase one you

can pretty much assume that there's

going to be more phases for more

years to come and more homes that are

being built and so if you find yourself

after having purchased new

construction in a community like this

and then construction keeps going and

then you end up finding yourself in a

situation where you need to move you

could really find yourself in a bad spot

where you're trying to sell your lived

in home while buyers still have the

option to buy new construction in that

neighborhood and by the way new

construction you know Builders will try

to increase prices on on their new

builds so you know phase one perhaps

the well I get I get asked this

question a lot actually because people

will see Signs by these developers that

say starting in the low

300s and then they get in there and the

cheapest home is like 385 or something

like that and they feel like that's

false advertising well I'm not an

attorney so I don't know if it's false

advertising or not but what I can say is

that it's an old sign originally

there were homes that were in the low

300s and then eventually inflation

ran its course and you know some some

of that is the developers inflating

things because they can and then

eventually things get gradually more

expensive in a neighborhood, however it

doesn't always happen that way right and

in this very weird environment that we

find ourselves in I've actually ran into

situations where actually Builders have

had to reduce the prices on some on

on some of their later phases and so

you could really find yourself in a bad

situation where you know you bought a

house for 350,000 back in 2022 for

instance and in that same neighborhood

now you can buy a brand new

home very similar for less than that so

there's no way that people are going to

buy your home that you've already lived

in for the price that you paid for let

alone most people are expecting to get

more money than what they paid for their

home and I've actually seen this play

out exactly in this way fairly

recently and so that's one example

that you've got to be careful in if

you're buying new construction I always

tell people plan to live there for a few

years because you don't know what the

Builder is going to do you don't know

what's going to happen with the market

but generally speaking people that

are you know looking at a neighborhood

if there's new construction available

they're going to look first at that new

construction before they look at resales

and you don't want to get stuck

trying to sell your lived in home in a

neighborhood that currently has new

construction going up another example

where people can get in trouble selling

too quickly is when the market shifts

obviously and that's obviously

something that we've seen the past

couple of years I've already alluded to

and so many people to give an

example who bought their home in 2006 to

2007 saw their home plummet in value

during the world financial crisis or the

Great Recession whatever you want to

call it and I've looked at this I

I've seen I see this all the time right

when I'm like looking at property

history I'll see that people bought a

house in 2006 2007 for x amount and

and then it got foreclosed on or

whatever and then eventually it

sells years later in a lot of cases

these homes didn't recover their value

until 2016 or

2017 so imagine purchasing a home in

2006 and it loses value within the next

couple of years and it doesn't go back

to the value you bought it for and again

this is not inflation adjusted but it

doesn't go back to even the n inflation

adjusted value that you bought it for

for for another several years until

2016 or 2017 but that has happen so

you got to be careful with that too well

that's the that's the background and

let me say I I already said we we've

experienced a market shift and as a

result there's been a lot of chatter of

2021 being similar to what 2006 to

2007 was right 2021 top of the market

for this current cycle 20062 2007 top

of the market maybe 2005 top of the

market for that cycle back then and

so the line of thinking is that again

2021 was basically the peak of the

market and people who have had to sell

since then are finding themselves in

trouble now I have said this before

and I will say it many more times

that buyers today have mortgage rates

that are in many cases double or more

than double what they were in 2021 okay

this is the primary reason why the

cycle is where it is the very different

cycle than what we experienced in 2008

going into 2009 and so that that

was related to lending and

lending practices and mortgage back

Securities and all of that this is a

completely different problem this is a

Federal Reserve problem and the Federal

Reserve has stated it's a something

that they plan to ease off of at some

point we've already had that discussion

a bunch of times regardless of what the

Federal Reserve is doing this is what we

have to deal with right so we can't

assume the Federal Reserve is going to

do this or do that we just have to work

with the hand that we' dealt and now

we're three and a half years removed

from 2021 which is wild to think about

and we finally have data to assess

what is happening and what has happened

to homes and home values during the

period of time from then until now and

of course I don't like to go to Zillow

or other flawed algorithm algorithms to

try to get this data and so I always

want to try to Source this data

myself using the multiple listing

software data that I have access to as a

realtor and I really get into the

into the weeds geeking out number

crunching sometimes I will spend you

know if I have you know like a a

weekend where I don't have anything

pressing to do I might spend an entire

day just crunching up that's just the

way I am I'm I'm a data guy at the end

of the day and here's what I

want to say before I I kind of get into

those numbers and and I always tell you

guys this it's really really important

for you guys to know that this is a

Greenville South Carolina podcast okay

it is a real estate podcast and we touch

on you know a lot of national Trends and

things that are happening nationally

but real estate is inherently local and

this episode in particular is about

Greenville okay so people who live in

Austin Boise San Francisco Chicago Etc

may have very different data to look at

for those markets than the data that we

will be looking at today all right so

just remember that now we're going to

dig into the data here but before we do

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a free quote today all right let's dig

into the data that I spent so much time

looking at here is I like to explain to

you guys what the data actually is

that I looked at because I feel like

that's helpful so I took all homes sold

between January 1st 2021 and June 30th

2024 I took all of those and put that

into a spreadsheet or I exported a

spreadsheet and actually if we're going

to be really technical I had to export

seven spreadsheets because the MLS

software has a limit on how many entries

you can export at one time so I had to

export seven different spreadsheets I

then took those spreadsheets I put them

into chat GPT I had chat GPT filter out

homes that were only sold once and so

then I ended up with all homes that were

sold twice or more since 2021 I used

chat GPT for a bunch of other things in

terms of massaging this data out and let

me tell you it it did a it did a great

job chat GPT can be hit or miss it did a

really great job I I double checked a

ton of different things and and the

way it handled the data was was truly

flawless I was pretty amazed I this is

one of the most impressive projects

I've used chat GPT for so shout out to

AI okay maybe I'll get some extra

hits because of of referencing that in

in this podcast okay so so I

did that I also I removed homes that

had sold twice within less than a year

time frame my thinking for doing this

almost all homes that sell twice within

a year are flips I did I wanted to

remove flips as much as possible from

this data because I just felt like

that that's not really what I'm I'm

trying to figure out here right I'm

wanting to know how sellers how normal

retail sellers are doing if they

purchased a home after January 1st

2021 and then had to sell it again

between that time and

now I I tried to eliminate those

flips but I'm sure that some flips still

ended up in the data and I do think in

general it's fair to assume that many

homes that did sell twice during this

period of time were updated between the

two sales right that's pretty normal

people update their homes all the time

but there's just not a great way to

narrow this data down to eliminate homes

that that went from unupdated to

updated or or that had any sort of

substantial improvements it's just it's

just too manual too difficult and chat

GPT can't do it or at least I couldn't

come up with a good way for chat GPT to

do it if if you can think of of a good

way to do that at scale and we're

talking about you know tens of thousands

of entries let me know because I'd be

interested but anyway just understand

there's a margin of error to this data

and I'll also be talking about

price growth in this episode but some

of that price growth should be chocked

up not merely to appreciation but also

potentially to improvements and again

there's just not a great way to clean up

that data so just keep that in mind

the data is flawed there's a margin of

error but I do think it's still

useful and at the end of the day we

need to ask the question because because

most homeowners keep up with their homes

and they they do these normal updates

right so I don't think that that's a a

big deal so at the end of the day the

question is are homeowners have

homeowners generally been able to sell

their home the past 3.5 years that they

had purchased within the past 3.5 years

and still end up making money and when

they're doing that how much money are

they they typically bring in when they

sell so here's what I found out and I

found this data to be I again to me it's

very very interesting and hopefully

it's interesting to you so let's start

with big picture what was the average or

median time and I believe that I

actually I took the median in this

instance time between sales so what was

typically happening what what was the

typical length of time from the

time these people purchased their home

Post January 1st 2021 until the time

that they ended up having to sell

remember I only was looking at homes

that sold twice during this period of

time and the average for those homes or

I should say the median for those homes

was

668 days in other words

1.83 years is another way to look at

that so again I don't know how that

compares to other periods of time or

compares to the average or anything like

that I'm just telling you guys among

this specific data set most of these

homeowners own their home for

1.83

years now of this data set of all of

these people that ended up having to

purchase and then sell within less than

a three and a half year time span during

this period of time that the market has

corrected and gone kind of crazy and all

of that how many of them ended up making

money versus how many of them ended up

selling for less than what they bought

for here's what the numbers tell me

95.4 one% of people that bought and sold

during this period of time bought and

sold for more sorry sold for more money

than they bought it for n over

95% of homeowners who sold a home that

they bought after January 1st 2021 ended

up selling for more than they purchased

it for now it doesn't necessarily mean

they came out positive there's no clear

ways of of looking at that because

there's a lot of other factors but they

came out positive simply from the the

metric of what they bought and what they

sold for so that leaves us with

4.59% that very clearly ended up

losing money they ended up selling a

home for less than what they bought it

for now I have not analyzed this in

comparison to other historical data

because honestly you could really really

get into the Weeds on some of that but

I'm just going to say this I don't know

how that number hits you I think that

that's a pretty low number

4.59% of of people that purchased a home

after January 1st 2021 and then had to

sell it before January prior to June

30th or on or before June 30th 2024 only

4.59% sold for less than what they

bought for I feel like that's an

extremely reasonable number and that

speaks to the result resilience of the

Greenville housing market I've talked

about this a lot the Greenville housing

market is a very very resilient Market

it's a very stable Market and we're

seeing that here in the data what was

the what are some of the other

numbers here that we're looking at well

let's look at the median sales price

right because I I'm I was curious about

this now what I did was I took the

median sales price and I subtracted out

seller concessions closing costs

that the seller were paying towards the

buyer all that kind of stuff and I came

out with a median sales price minus the

closing cost of

30735 3 for this sample size that's

pretty close to what our medium price

point is in Greenville right now and

that was basically what we're dealing

with here pretty much your average home

so we're not talking about anything

super crazy we're not talking about you

know a market that you know the

basically the reason why this is

important is this sample size is

reflective of essentially the the

broader Market this wasn't a wacky

sample size of like all wealthy people

are all people that aren't wealthy this

is a sample size of homes that were that

would generally be deemed your average

home in Greenville County now what

was the median difference between the

purchase price and the sales price again

factoring and closing

costs this is going to surprise you it

surprised me it was

$57,000 that's a a large number and the

average was almost $80,000 again I I

prefer the median but I was curious

about the average and those are both

great numbers and again this is with the

median sales price being 307,000 and and

and that was across the entire

Spectrum right so that includes the

initial purchases and so

people by and large making good money

if they you know purchased their home

after January 1st 2021 onor before on or

after January 1st

2021 and and had to sell within the

next three and a half years generally

speaking they were making 5 they they

were selling for $57,000 more than what

they bought for I think that that is

is

hugely interesting right because

we're not just talking about okay people

barely scraping by right 57,000 you can

easily pay for commission you can easily

pay for County taxes that you have to

pay for all of that and and and so I

think that most people that are having

to sell are really happy right

obviously not all of the 95.4% of people

that sold for more than they bought for

sold you know at 57,000 more than

what they bought for that's a median

number but still for that to be the

median I think that's that's

extremely positive the highest

difference between the purchase and sale

was 1. 275 million which was which

was obviously a tremendously huge number

the lowest difference right the worst

one between the bot and the sale price

was minus 199,000 there was someone

that lost it was obviously a luxury home

they lost

199,000 from the time they bought

until the time they sold again

luxury home buyers are a little bit

different than your average you know

middle class home buyer oftentimes

you know wealthy people never like to

lose money nobody likes to lose money it

doesn't matter how much money you have

when I used to work in luxury

ground

transportation billionaires would

quible over a $200 bill you know that

that's that's the way they are they

become billionaires for a reason and

and it's not just because they know how

to make a bunch of money it's often

times because they're a bit stingy as

well believe it or not

but nonetheless when it

comes to real estate often times they're

willing to to take risks on things that

other people wouldn't be willing to take

risk on just because they want a nice

house and they're not buying the house

to be an investment, and so

sometimes we see these sorts of things

so what did this play out to in terms of

how much actual price growth and I'm

going to say price growth not

appreciation because again it's not one

to one whether these numbers are actual

appreciation or not but what sort of

sort of actual price growth are we

actually seeing well the median price

growth that we saw for for these homes

from the time that they sold the

first time until the time they sold the

second time by the way there were a few

homes that sold twice or sorry more

than two times in the sample size I

let them stay in there and so they're

included in here there were some homes

that sold three or four times during

this period of time which is

crazy the median price growth

increase was

17.43% which I think again you think

about it you sell a home within

within three to three and a half years

or in this case on average 1.83 years

so less than two years from the time

you bought it if you're walking away

selling it for

17.43% more than what you bought it for

during a time when the market is

correcting I don't know what else you

can say about the Greenville Market that

is a stable resilient Market okay a lot

of markets right now are losing home

values very very fast and I'm going to

be very interested we're right on the

cusp I'm recording this July 16th I

waited as long as I could hoping that

the market stats for the month of

June would be out by now published by

the greater Greenville Association of

Realtors it has not come out yet so

we're going to have to do that

episode next week but but

obviously we track that to see you know

what direction prices are going but man

the past three and a half years prices

have just continued to go up and I told

I've been telling you guys this for

years and years and years now some of

y'all wouldn't listen to me but hey

it I can't always be right I can't

always be wrong but on this one I was

certainly right I also took here's

what just out of curiosity like but

on average or technically on median

how much price growth were these homes

experiencing per day and per year on

average which I by which I mean the

median it's an awkward thing to say on

median is that even the right thing to

say I think you you're just supposed to

say the median anyway the median

price growth per day was

$82.4 so I mean think about that for a

second right if you are a if you've been

a homeowner since January 1st 20 21

your home there's a good chance again

these are this is metadata so it's not

one one Size Doesn't fits all but you

can reasonably expect that your home is

going up in value $82 every single day

while you're doing next to nothing to

it that's pretty good right I mean

you're you're getting $82 a day doing

nothing what what does that come out to

per year that comes out to almost

$30,000 per year guys there are some

people that aren't even making that much

money in a in a year you know with with

you know service workers and whatnot

can if people are getting paid only a

hair above minimum wage they're making

way less than that per

year and so that to me hugely

informative right this is why home

ownership is oftentimes considered to be

the easiest Pathway to wealth for

most

you know middle class Americans right

because it is just a way to start to

build wealth it's a way to start to

to basically take control of your

finances better and eventually you know

build up

Equity then that allows you to do things

in the future obviously that $30,000 a

year isn't liquid but in some cases

people will take out home equity lines

of credit or they'll do cash out

refinances or things like that to take

that and make it work for them and I

I know a lot of people that have really

had success with that including myself

with my first home that I did that

with so that's all that I have for

the data and I I wasn't really sure how

to wrap this up but I I I think here's

how I'm going to to wrap this up I think

that what we're seeing is that there's a

lot of misinformation out there about

okay people you you know if you read

headlines you read people that have

bought home the past few years have

gotten completely hosed on their home

values and of course I could take this

data and and look at well what about

people that bought in 2022 or you know

whatever the case may be I started in

2021 because that was the peak and

three and a half years of of sample size

is a lot you know you can reverse

engineer Trends a lot better than with

two or two and a half years I also

didn't know that median time

between sales was going to be 1.83 years

so that that came out as just a part of

all of

this but I think that those

headlines don't necessarily apply to

Greenville right they only applied to

4.59% of the market here in Greenville

that sold a home for less than what they

bought it for and I looked at some of

them I was curious you know what

happened a lot of those homes were

rental properties a lot of those homes

were just fell into a massive state of

disrepair after the home owners bought

them sad in in in some instances

but for the most part people that have

kept up with their homes and we're owner

occupying have not seen their homes drop

in value even during one of the greatest

Market Corrections of our generation of

our

lifetime and so I think that doesn't

mean that it's never going to happen

that you know that you're always

going to be in that 95% of people that

that are only seeing homes going up

in value but I think that that is an

encouraging sign as the market shifts

you know I'll have people sometimes t

text or or email or call me freaking out

you know is my home going to lose value

is this going to be a problem for me in

the future and based on the data

so far with what has happened during

this Market correction I think I

think it's a very encouraging sign for

for most people and obviously not all

markets are the same and not all Market

Corrections are the same so it might not

always be this way it's not going to

always be this way we know that there's

going to be some Market correction

happens in the future where homes are

going to lose value it always happens

it's cyclical like with anything

but again the Greenville Market very

resilient very stable market and and

I feel like that this is just a great

sign if you bought a home the past few

years generally speaking you don't need

to be scared about your home having

having lost value and you you being

locked in from the standpoint of your

home value now you might be locked in

you know the lock in effect people talk

about you might be locked in from the

standpoint of you can't afford your next

house because mortgage rates are so high

that's a real thing but that's a very

different thing than having your home

lose value that's a double whamming for

some people some people are now

underwater on equity on their home

and even if they sold they wouldn't

be able to move because of of mortgage

rates being high that's terrible at

least if you're in Greenville overwhel

overwhelming odds are that you're not in

the in that category that you could sell

your home and make profit not just

profit but a sizable profit

17.43% profit you know gross profit

obviously there are some some expenses

when you sell U but I hope that was

interesting for you guys very

interesting for me I appreciate you guys

as always listening please like rate

review subscribe these episodes find my

contact information in the show notes if

you need a realtor in Greenville reach

out to Piper Insurance Group also in the

show notes for any of your homeowners

Auto or Umbrella insurance needs and we

will talk again next time