Hello everyone and Welcome to another

episode of selling Greenville your

favorite real estate podcast here in

Greenville, South Carolina, I'm your host

as always Stan Mccune realtor right here in

Greenville, South Carolina, you can find

all of my contact information in the

show notes if you need to reach out to

me for any of your real estate needs

here in the Greenville area, even outside

the Greenville area I've got a

relocations department that I work with

for people moving from Greenville to

outside of the Greenville area, so please

let me know my contact information is

right there in the show notes just a

reminder, as always, please like, rate,

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if you guys can do that today we're

going to be talking about the Market

stats finally released by the greater

Greenville Association of Realtors I was

starting to sweat this out right because

I'm about to go out of town and I have

recorded podcasts when I've been out of

town before but it it's not ideal you

know a lot of this equipment does not

travel well and as I've been you

know gradually making this podcast

the the production quality particularly

now of the video better I don't want

to you know have to then have an episode

where it's much worse because I'm having

to set up in in a Mobile station you

know while traveling thankfully right

before you know I'm going out of town

tomorrow on the day that I'm recording

this they finally release these Market

stats which I go over with you guys

every month and there's some very

interesting tidbits in here that I

want to cover and go over and

particularly I want to compare what's

happening right now to what's happened

historically

and so if you are not normally one to

watch on YouTube this would actually be

a great episode to watch on YouTube I'm

still going to try to make it

friendly to the ears so that you can

track if you're if you're just a

listener but but I'm going to have

a lot of graphs and charts and whatnot

on YouTube as I screen share which I

am doing right

now all

right

so we're just going to do this the way

we always do this and start right at the

top with new listings so new listings

data came in very strong for the month

of June now remember these even though

these stats are coming out in July July

is not over yet we always get usually

mid to late July the number or mid to

late time of the month the numbers

for the previous month and there's even

a few numbers that I will go over with

you guys that are not accurate for the

most recent month but we have to look

back two months and I have no

explanation for that, but we'll

start with new listings this data

usually is accurate for the most recent

month all these numbers get revised

and tweaked slightly in future months

but this number usually ends up being

very close in future months to the

number that it's currently at so June

2024 the new listings data as I've

already said extremely strong it came in

2,152 new listings that was a

10.1% increase Year on-ear from the

1,955 new listings we had in June 2020

2023 now if you're looking on YouTube

you will notice that I have circled

three different dots on the dot part on

the Dot Plot or dot chart that shows

all the historical new listings going

all the way back to 2007 going all the

way back to 2007 we have only had four

times before this year where new

listings data came in over 2000 we had

there was one month in 2019 where new

listings peaked out just over 2000

there was one month in 2021 the same

thing happened there were two months in

2022 where the new listings data came in

over 2000 and now now we have four

straight months of data in 2024 with new

listings over 2,000 so in the history of

Greenville as far back as we have this

data we had only had four times ever

where new listings had been over 2,000

and now in 2024 we have had four

straight months of new listings data

over 2,000 what in the world is

happening I think a few things I think

the quotee unquote locking effect that

we've heard people talk about where

people are locked in with the golden

handcuffs of a three you know 2 and a

half% 3% 3 and a half% interest rate

they've been holding off for several

years now and they're finally reaching

that point where they're like you know

what I've I've you know I have a a job

change or or I've you know or an

opportunity for a job change I've got

you know children we busting at the

seams I've got you know this or that

whatever reasons you know the reasons

that people typically move people have

been putting that off for a while now

and I think that it's just kind of

reached a Tipping Point where people no

longer a lot of people can no

longer wait we've also got you know and

some of this new listings data is going

to be some of the new construction that

as new construction has slowed down some

Builders have opted to put more of

their listings in MLS I don't think that

that is playing a huge role I think what

I said before is playing a much bigger

role that people who would prefer not

to move with the higher interest rate

environment that we have right now

because they have a lower interest rate

they're just kind of like you know you

know what we don't have a choice I've

seen some investment properties

properties that people purchased the

past couple of years as Investments

realizing that those weren't very good

Investments and now they're they're

listing those to sell just a whole lot

of things going on here but it's

remarkable it's truly remarkable that we

have four straight months with new

listings data over 2,000 and I mean the

last three months it's been over

2100 so this is a this is a

tremendous development and something

that we certainly have to keep track of

now we're right around the time that we

often times start to see a big dive off

in the new listings data we had a weird

last year it kind of bounced up and down

but if you look at a traditional year a

traditional year new listings data

forms kind of a nice little Mountaintop

a nice little Peak usually in June or

July sometimes in May it just kind of

depends on the year and so that is

what it looks like we're seeing right

now with new listings data appearing to

have peaked out probably around the

month of of April is probably going

to end up being the strongest month of

the year the question is how much of a

drop off are we going to see from June

to July because I still see a lot of new

listings coming on online right now I

could it would not Shock me I mean the

latter we still have the latter half of

July to happen but it would not Shock

me if we saw a fifth straight month

with new listings data over 2,000 so

we'll see so that is we talk about

supply and demand that's the supply side

of things Supply really beefy right now

right a lot of new listings data

let's look at pending sales pending

sales this is one of the numbers that

is always wrong for the most recent

month it's usually about 500 pending

sales low so the month of of June it

said 950

pending sales that's probably about 500

off so we can asse that that will will

end up being revised to around like 1450

if that's true that will end up being a

slight increase year- on-ear over June

2023 which was

1401 so I I would anticipate we'll

see a slight increase year on-ear imp

pending sales for the month of June but

let's look back at may I made a similar

prediction for the month of May when we

did this these stats last month and I

was right on the money I thought would

be real close to being flat or maybe

a very very slight increase or the least

likely scenario I saw a very very slight

decrease year on year for May 2023 it

ended up being right on the nose a the

slightest of increases so we had 1,461

pending sales for the month of May

and that was a. 4% increase from the

1,455 pending sales of May 2023 so we

only had six more pending sales in

May of this year versus May of last year

and so again very predictable you

know and and as far as numbers go how

how does this compare historically well

again if you're looking at my chart

on YouTube you can see I drew a line

across from from this pending sale

number the month of May all the way

across the entire way and here's what I

find really interesting

it intersects very closely with May of

2019 but you really can't see this in

the same resolution probably on YouTube

that I can see it live but may 2019 was

slightly higher so what does that mean

that means that demand in May of of this

year was ever so slightly lower than

demand in May of

2019 that I've been talking about the

market softening that is one of the

clearest indicators of a softened Market

when the pre when we have a month

compared to a pre-pandemic month with

and and today's month or this year's

month has less demand than the

prepandemic month had that tells me a

lot that tells me again that demand is

really really being destroyed right now

and again it's it's by higher interest

rates and it's also a presidential

election year which I've said before

strangely impacts things and so here

here we have a a month that in a

vacuum you could say oh well that that

looks pretty good right that was you

know in theory an increase year on-year

of you know a 0 4% increase year on

year that's still lower than what

than what our demand was back in 2019

now of course May of of 2023 was even

lower so I don't want to draw too many

conclusions from this but usually

each year you start to see demand

increasing and here we are with

really Demand Being flat more or less

year on-ear but still but less than what

it was pre pandemic so why is that

important well I just said that Supply

at least from the standpoint of new

listings and we'll look at inventory

here in a little bit Supply is is

hitting records right now and demand is

showing signs of of some pretty severe

softening and so that's very

interesting by the way if you're not

able to see this we've also now hit the

backside of the Mountain of pending

sales so we can now start to anticipate

most likely that the rest of the year

pending sales will start to to fall

off quite a bit in comparison to what

it has been the past few months once

we get past Memorial Day typically

we we see a tremendous decrease in

demand and that appears to be what's

happening

now closed sales closed sales is usually

accurate for the most recent month so

the month of June we had 1,552 closed

sales that was a 2.9% decrease from June

last year again here's some of the

things that that we're that I'm looking

at that tells me that demand is

weakening we have our second month

of the year so far with year on-year

closed sales less than what it was

the year prior and of course this is

directly correlated with the pending

sales which our pending sales numbers

have been pretty weak the past few

months March was down 0.1% year on year

April was only up 1.9% year on Year may

was only up0 4% year on-ear so those

aren't great increases and we're having

a lot of contract falls through I or

fall throughs I just had a

listing that had a contract fall

through on it for the third time never

in my career have I had that it's

it's honestly it's very demoralizing

when this sort of thing happens and

there's a a lot of reasons I could get

into the weeds it's a unique listing

there's a lot of reasons why that

specific listing has had that happen but

it's noteworthy that never in my career

have I had that happen before and and

it just happened just this past week

with one of my

listings and so that's why even though

pending sales might might not seem

dramatically less than

sometimes the pending sales numbers

are are misleading I guess is what I'm

saying because a pending sale could end

up falling under contract what was

unique about the environment during

covid when we had pending sales hitting

record highs was that almost none of

those were falling through almost no

pending sales were falling through

because buyers had to work so hard to

get a home under contract that when they

finally did they just kind of had to

accept it in whatever condition it was

in just had to deal with it and

you know they just didn't want to have

to go back out there and have to to to

you know look at another 15 homes make

offers on 10 of them and get out bid on

on nine of the 10 and so here

we are now Penning sales numbers are not

super soft but when you consider the

data that we don't have in here which is

how many of these are falling through I

would say the pending sales numbers are

quite soft all right so back to the

closed sales again the close sale

number is reflecting that with a minus

2.9% year-on-year number for the month

of

June and the month of May was only up

1.9% year onye and so we've now had

two pretty soft months on closed sales

now if you're looking at the chart on

on YouTube you'll notice I circled the

month of June for going back

basically to 2012 just to just to

point out to you guys what's happening

so here's

basically what has happened since 2012

not every year has seen June exactly

have year on your increases it's not

uncommon for there to be a a month of a

year that has a decrease for one reason

or another there's a lot of stuff that

goes into that into the housing market

but generally speaking it was a line

that was going upward until covid

obviously June 20120 was heavily

impacted by Co and

but regardless we see these

start to continue to go up until

just recently and so the past four years

basically these June closed sales

numbers have started to get flat and as

I said now it's gone down year on year

so that's something that we need to keep

track of again this is indicating

that you know the market has has not

seen the traditional Trends since Co

that that we that we're used to

seeing and that's reflected in closed

sales now for the first time are

starting to indicate a trend going down

historically versus going up

historically and I think that will only

change if if we see mortgage rates

start to come down days on Market until

sale they it went down month on

month okay let's talk about that for a

second month on month it went down

from 46 days on Market until sale until

40 days in June so what that means is on

average when a property is listed

between the time when a property is

listed when an offer accepted takes

about 40 days so if you're planning to

sell a house budget in your mind for on

average that it'll be 40 days before it

goes under under contract now remember

that doesn't factor in the fact that

that contract may fall through as I've

said a lot of contracts are falling

through right now that's just

something to to keep in the back of your

head how does that compare year on year

it's a slight increase June of 2023 was

at 39 days on Market until sale and now

we're at 40 so that's a to me a

negligible increase year on-ear

this is still a number that is still

lower than the pre-pandemic Norms

although not dramatically lower you

know we had a few months during 2017

and 2018 that flirted with the number 40

as as far as days on Market but still

in general this is still a little bit

lower homes are still on average going

under contract a little bit quicker than

what was happening before let's look at

median sales price this is Loosely the

number that we look at to kind of

track where the Market's going it's it's

not a one-to-one correlation with home

appreciation, but it is the closest

that we have to being able to actually

provide you a home appreciation number

from a metad DAT standpoint and here's

what we have a 3% increase year on year

so almost almost completely flat year on

year if you remember May was flat

year on year actually they revised the

May number to bring it down $10 so now

May of 2024 was down $10 year

on-ear versus May of 2023, that's for all

intents and purposes a flat month year

on year June pretty much the same

32,900 was the median price point for

June so if you if someone asks you hey

what does the home cost in Greenville

well during the summer months our

median is right around 320 and that's in

June 2023 it was at 320 as well so only

a difference of $900 year onye a 3%

increase and that's not quite the

highest number well hold on let me see

here

I don't believe that that's the highest

number that we've ever

seen yes

3249 in October of 2023 was the highest

number that we've ever had with the

median sales price so it'll be

interesting to see if we get something

like that happen again this year where

we have an October like a really high

fall meeting sales price that's not

necessarily indicative of what normally

happens historically but that'll be

interesting to watch but I think that

the takeaway here is that we've

essentially had two flat months year

on-ear in terms of prices and and I

think that that that's particularly

noteworthy because we have not had that

really in like that as a trend in

quite some time what about the average

sales price well the average actually

hit a new record the reason why we

don't Focus too much on the average

because the average is heavily skewed by

you know let's say there's a luxury home

development with a bunch of million doll

homes that that all sell within a

short period of time that's going to

skew the data or let's say there's a a

bunch of really cheap homes that sell

all at the same time that's going to

skew the data as well but that being

said I think it's still interesting and

particularly interesting because it

set a Greenville record for average at

42501 that is the first time Greenville

has ever crested the $400,000 Mark in

average home sale and that's a 4.8%

increase versus June 20 23 which

which was 383,000 almost 384,000

so this is what we have now we have

the average sales price if you want to

truly know if you want to truly say what

the average is in Greenville it's

42,500 and obviously that's a huge

number and home buyers are glad that we

can rely more on the median at 320 and

change versus the average at 402 and

change apologies if you hear my dog

freaking out in the back background I do

not know what she's freaking out about

percent of list price

received June's percent of list price

received this is the percentage found

when dividing a property sales price by

its most recent list price then taking

the average for all property sold in a

given month not accounting for seller

concessions June was 98.7% which was

a pretty big decrease a 4% year-on-year

decrease from June

2023 however it is month- on Monon

the same May was also

98.7% and so now we have three

straight months where the percent of

list price received has been lower year

onye versus 2023 what does that mean

what it means is that sellers are not

getting as much of the list price as

what they were getting a year ago so if

you list a home for $100,000 on average

you can expect to get $98,700 for

that home although buyers are likely

also going to ask you to pay for some

concessions as well they're going to ask

for you to pay for their closing cost or

for rate buy Downs or or what have you

and so again we need to we need to

track this this is pretty comparable

to prepandemic Norms you could maybe

argue it's slightly higher but I mean

it's right right in line with what we

saw you know in 2018 2019 so this is

pretty you know

98.7% honestly sellers should be pretty

happy with that number buyers probably

would want to get that closer to just a

flat

98% but I don't see anything

particularly noteworthy about that

number at this time but if it keeps

falling year on year then we'll have to

see if we see it Go below 98% that's

when that when we know that we're

we're starting to see you know some

things changing if well I should say if

it went below 98% during kind of the

summer months if it went below 98%

during the winter months that would be

pretty pretty much on par with with

what we saw pre-

pandemic housing affordability index

this is the index which measures housing

affordability for the region for example

an index of 120 means the median

household income is 120% of what is

necessary to qualify for the medium

priced home under prevailing interest

rates so a higher number means greater

affordability I just read that straight

off the sheet so we want the housing

affordability index to be 100 or higher

it has not been 100 all year with the

exception of February and the month

of June was the same as the month of May

flat at 94 however that is a 3.3%

increase versus June 2023 which was at

91 so that's good housing has become

became slightly more affordable in

June 2024 versus June 2023 and that

shouldn't come as a surprise why because

prices were were basically flat

mortgage rates are probably slightly

better than they were year on-year and

income has gone gone up in the state of

South Carolina the past year again

these are all averages but

that's good if you're a home purchaser

housing affordability when you factor

in all of these different

things has gotten a little bit

better inventory of homes for sale

inventory for the most recent month is

always an inaccurate number so so I'm

not going to focus on that let's go back

to may may inventory number and and I

predicted it would come in around this I

don't remember exactly what I predicted

but I thought it would be above 4,000 it

was in fact above 4,000 for the first

time in a very very long time for the

first time since

2019 sorry for the first time

since 2020 I apologize there the

March 2020 I think something

important happened during that month

we had inventory right around

4,000 during that month as well but

may came in at

4,189 that is a

41.6% increase year on-ear versus May

2023 that is a huge huge increase I

think that might be the biggest

year-on-year increase I have seen since

I have since I've track this I'd have

to go back and look at a bunch of my

at my data but massive

massive increase I mean the difference

between having less than 3,000 homes

available to look at if you're a home

buyer versus having almost 4,200 again

that is it's a massive difference and if

you're a seller that's that's not

great news right not great news at all

because now you're now you're

competing against a lot of other homes

now may was revised down from

4700 in change and so it came

down a little more than

500 units of inventory when once they

revised the number so what did June come

in at with the inaccurate number it came

in at

4845 so we can roughly anticipate that

June will be revised to around

4,300 homes for sale so I this trend

of having over 4,000 homes for sale at

the end of a given month which is what

this metric tracks appears to be here

for at least a little bit we can

probably anticipate this will be for

several more months because June will

probably be in the 43 fre which is going

to be a massive increase from June 2023

and then you know it'll take a while

for that inventory to get

absorbed and so so I would anticipate

that July and probably August at the

very least will probably be elevated as

well we might see this go on

with these numbers be above 4,000 for

the majority of the remainder of the

year I don't think it'll be for the

entire rest of the year because if if

you're looking on YouTube you can see

the inventory does go down down during

the winter months so Fallen winter

months so I would expect that to happen

again this year but we could see this

elevated inventory now for quite some

time so by some metrics this is a

good time to buy at least from the

standpoint of of options that buyers

have now if you're looking on YouTube

you'll see that I drew another line on

here and that is just to show where this

inventory Compares historically so

it's basically right on track with

with what inventory was and I believe is

November of 2019 so inventory right now

in June 2020 sorry in May 2024 very

comparable to what it was in

November of 2019 and you can see it's

very comparable to basically what

inventory was throughout 2019 was

actually a little bit higher than what

it was in 2018 2017 2019 again mortgage

rates started to creep up a little bit

from what they had been for for several

years and that suppressed demand a

little bit and caused Supply to go up

and so that's some of what was happening

there now once this June number gets

revised if it's at around 4,300 like I

think it will be that's going to be

comparable to to the top end numbers

that we had in 2019 maybe even above

that so that's going to be very

interesting to see we'll probably need

to have a similar comparison once we

once we get those revised numbers

come in month supply of inventory

this is a this is a a bad number to look

at for the most recent months because it

divides the two numbers we've already

said are inaccurate pending sales and

inventory that being said it's

still useful to look at at least for the

for two months ago so two months ago May

it that number got revised to 3.2

months of inventory originally when they

published May numbers they said 3.8

months so it came down 6 and June

also came in at at 3.8 so that's going

to be probably revised back down to 3.2

months of inventory as well so we're

still hovering here in in the low threes

of inventory but that's a big

increase from the low twos which is

where we were at last year so may of

2023 was 2.3 months of inventory that

took a 39.1% increase this year to 3.2

May of 2024 so month supply

interesting interesting dat

to look at I've said before I think

if we started to approach 4 months of

inventory it would really feel like a

buyer Market I've had to revise that

number a few different times but

but I think right now the way I feel

based on everything I'm looking at I

think four months and and there's

reasons for why the why that four Monon

number what you know traditionally

people would say six months is when it

IT 6 months of inventory is when it

starts to turn into a buyer Market but

remember we've been at a deficit of

of supply for so long now and now we're

meeting that deficit of Supply with a

deficit of demand and so we're having a

big correction and so for for the

number to get to six we'd have to have a

massive correction and during that

period where that correction occurs is

when it would really feel like a buyer

market so that's why I think at four

months of inventory we would have it

feel like a buyer Market it's kind of

like if you want to think about if

you're a if you're a stock market guy or

an economist person gal

whatever you think about people talk

about various yield curves inverting

and how that's usually indicative of a

recession coming well it's not until the

EUR curve yield curve uninverted usually

that the recession is actually here it's

kind of similar with this data we're

probably on the precipice of a buyer

Market if this inventory creeps up you

know8 months or something like that

whereas the conventional wisdom would be

six months but it's kind of like at four

months is when we see the the that yield

curve start inverting or start un

inverting if that makes any sense I

don't know if that made any sense kind

of a weird comparison and I did not plan

to say that just kind of just kind of

came to me but maybe that made sense

to someone that's all we're going to

cover today there is some other data

that we can sometimes get in the weeds

with when it comes to when it comes

to the housing market in terms of you

know whether town homes are selling and

whe whether three bedrooms or three BS

or whatever are selling more than

others not going to get into that today

we'll we'll get into that another time

but I appreciate you guys listening

oh we need to discuss one thing I I

almost blew past Piper Insurance Group

and just a reminder they are my

go-to for homeowners Auto and Umbrella

insurance they are an independent agency

so they can quote with multiple

different companies and bring you

back the best possible rate that they

find they handle Home Auto and

Umbrella in multiple States South

Carolina and North Carolina Georgia and

they can help you with flips investment

properties rentals ground up new

construction residential commercial all

of that their information is in the

contact sorry their contact

information man I'm struggling here

their contact information is in the show

notes along with my own contact

information so please reach out to them

for a quote on homeowners Auto or

Umbrella please reach out to me with any

of your real estate needs go to those

show notes for that contact info please

rate review subscribe if you enjoy

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