Hello everyone and Welcome to another

episode of Selling Greenville your

favorite real estate podcast here in

Greenville, South Carolina, I'm your host

as always Stan Mccune realtor right here in

the Greenville area and you can find all

of my contact information in the show

notes if you need to reach out to me for

any of your local real estate needs and

just a reminder as always, please support

the show by liking, rating, reviewing,

commenting all of those things on

YouTube Audi boom Spotify iTunes what

ever if it has an option to support this

show, please do that, and the other way

okay there's one more thing I'm asking

you guys to support the show and that is

by supporting our sponsor Piper

Insurance Group they do Home Auto and

Umbrella Insurance all across South

Carolina North Carolina and Georgia they

are my go-to I've referred a bunch of

clients to them as well for Home Auto

and Umbrella insurance I cannot

recommend them enough so you guys need

to contact them for a free quote today

they're independent so they're not

just like affiliated with you know a

Geico or State Farm or someone like that

so they can price you around to a

bunch of different carriers and see who

offers you the best rate they could

even have you with investment properties

too I've got a lot of investors

current clients past clients people that

aren't clients that do everything on

their own but still listen to the show

listen guys I highly recommend you reach

out to Piper Insurance Group to help you

out with those investment properties

flips rentals ground up new construction

even commercial

all of those things so Piper Insurance

their contact information will also be

in the show notes so please reach out to

them for a free quote

today okay I was recently well I I

should back up for a second actually

before I get too in the weeds here first

off if you're watching on YouTube and

you're wondering why I have a shiny

shirt on it's because it is college

football season now and I've got a

Clemson shirt that I'm wearing that just

has to be really shiny and I didn't

think about that when I decided to

record the show so I apologize for

that but it is college football season I

am proudly wearing my Clemson shirt

right now today's been a work from

home day for me so I don't have to wear

my fancy my fancy clothes and I

you know I might not even be wearing

pants you guys don't know you don't

you don't see me below the waist in this

show but if you're watching on

YouTube you do see you know I look like

a a Marlin or something with with how

shiny I am but I should say that

this is going to be the first month in a

very long time that we don't have an

episode talking about the greater

Greenville Association of Realtors

Market stats and that's because we don't

have them yet so we don't yet know

what happened in the month of July we're

going to get Pro I'm sure I'll get the

market stats probably tomorrow excuse me

and and and you know I'm I just am

not going to record that episode for

this week it's just going to have to

come out next week so we're going to

have two months lagging data on

on the Greenville Market stats but

that's okay cuz we've got something else

to talk about so I was going through my

old podcast for my 2021 just you know I

was actually looking for something I

wasn't just doing it out of curiosity I

was looking for something specific and I

found a really interesting episode that

I had done I believe it was in 2021 and

I called it all chaos has broken loose I

need to silence my phone here starting

to get some notifications you know how

it is I'm a realtor

all right everything is silenced

Ricky mistake there so I had an

episode I did back in I believe it was

2021 that I called all chaos has broken

loose and it was just what I I just

talked through the Dynamics of how crazy

the market was and just broke down a

bunch of interesting stats on both the

supply and the demand of the market at

that time well I decided this is fun Why

Don't We compare the market right now

I'm recording this on August 6 2024 Why

Don't We compare the market right at

this moment to what it was back then

when I thought the market was chaotic so

that's exactly what we're going to do

so we are going to be talking stats but

it's going to be less less of the

current you know year- on-year kind of

stats that than what I talk about

typically when I go through our monthly

Market stats so we're just going to

start I'm going to go through Straight

From the top what I talked about in in

2021 and compare it to right now so for

starters at the the time that I pulled

the data back in 2021 there was

1,241 active listings that was insanely

low right insanely low to have 1,241

active listings how does that compared

to now I pulled this just a just a few

hours ago we have

4,114 currently active and I've been

tracking this for a while we' been

hovering kind of in the low 4000s for

several months now so we

1241 active listings back in 21

4114 now basically three and a half

times the supply that we had back in

2021 obviously a huge increase and this

is what we're talking about when we talk

about the market rebalancing or the

market shifting these are some of the

things we're talking about what about

homes that were pending or under

contract in 21 there were

3,232 homes under contract when I took

that

snapshot when I took the snapshot today

there was

2,323 so these are this is confusing

right it's a lot of twos and threes

3,232 versus

2,323 I don't know how that how that

worked out but here we go now we have

we see the supply side is three and a

half times higher than it was back then

on the demand side demand is you know

roughly what I don't know 30ish per

lower than what it was back then so

higher Supply and lower demand causes

the market to slow down that's basic

economics but the but the other

interesting thing to think about is

comparing the active listings to the

under contract listings right so we had

in 21 when I took this when I did this

episode 1,41 active listings versus

3,232 under contract so you know if

we did this as a ratio there it would be

you know a decimal if you divide the

active listings by those under contract

whereas now we have 4,114 active versus

2323 under contract almost double the

active listings not quite double but

almost double the active listings versus

what we have under contract so that

ratio is is a very interesting one

and actually I think you know in the

future I think I might track this ratio

more closely because I think that there

might be something there to this

actually kind of being a way to

determine what sort of Market we're in

are we in a buyer Market are we in a

sell's market you know that's a

debate that that can go on for forever

people typically look at inventory and

months of inventory to determine that

but I think that this that if we

looked at this ratio that actually might

be a good way of doing it as well so

I'll be you know thinking through that

I've got a gazillion ideas in my brain

these days you know for Content

creation and for how I'm going to keep

tracking the market and so that's one of

them you guys can steal that if you

want all right another thing that I

notated back in 21 was that the past 24

hours at at the time that I had recorded

that 1,497 homes went to pending so in

other words 1,497 homes went under

contract within 24 hours the past 24

hours now roughly speaking obviously not

perfect I'm recording this in the middle

of the day so I I kind of did this more

like 36 hours but close enough 1,33

homes so again basically 30% fewer

homes under contract the past 24 hours

versus that period of time in

2021 now let's break down what all of

these Supply numbers equate to and and

some of these are pretty eye popping

numbers so in 21 900 12 of the active

listings were single family homes just

your standard run-of-the-mill not a

townhouse not a condo not an apartment

nothing like that just a single family

detached home of the inventory currently

available now

358 are single family so I mean

almost four times the amount of single

family homes are available on the market

now versus this crazy period of time

in 2021 I think that's really

noteworthy right you have four times

times the options if you're looking for

a house than you did just three years

ago so is it a good time to buy well

it depends on your situation but from

that standpoint it is a much better

time to buy than it was three years ago

now it's not a better time to buy from

the standpoint of mortgage rates and all

that I and affordability and and all of

those things I get that but there's a

lot more options out there for home

buyers right now than there have been in

years right even going back to like 2019

we have to go back to like 2018 when

we've had Supply at levels the way it is

right now what about condos and town

homes in 21 302 of of the 1,41 active

listings were condos or town homes right

now

492 of our current active listings so

that one I find interesting too right so

it it did go up it did go up by you know

maybe 60% so it's nothing to completely

you know laugh at but it's only went up

by 190 190 units whereas the single

family homes went up tremendously they

went up

400% and went from 9002 to 3500 and

change so not a ton of condos Town

Homes I know people think oh

greenville's building so many condos and

town homes well a lot of those are for

rent at the end of a day and just not a

ton of these are coming for sale on the

market yes we do have more than we did

back then but it's it's not a huge dent

it's not a huge piece of the overall pie

what about Mobile Homes modular and just

other 27 of the 1241 active listings

in 2021 were mobile home modular or

other whereas right now 112 so that's

gone up four basically four times as

well what about new construction back

then 610 were new were new construction

of the active listings 6

1,19 new construction active listings

are now currently happening

now again I I want to make sure that we

understand context here because back

then a lot of Builders weren't putting

their listings on MLS they didn't need

to right they didn't need to waste time

doing that they had people just walking

into the model homes and just buying

homes left and right and they didn't

need to to go on MLS to list it but as

things have slowed down more of this

more new construction has been having to

be listed on mls in order to bring

potential buyers in to generate interest

to generate Buzz all of that and so

here we are I don't know if we have

truly that much more inventory that than

what we had back then in new

construction it's just that some of the

what some people would call Shadow

inventory the stuff that isn't in MLS

but that is actually for sale I think

some of that shadow inventory from 21

now is no longer in the shadows now it's

actually on MLS now of the new

construction this is also very

interesting

534 of the 610 new constructing new

construction actives that were in MLS

back then were not built yet or at least

hadn't been completed so it was

incomplete new

construction almost all of them right

there were very few that were completed

new construction those were just getting

eaten up right away by you know anyone

that was looking for a house whereas now

out of the 1619 new construction new

construction active listings that we

have 1139 of those are in the not built

yet or not completed yet category and so

that means that you know whereas back

then we had what roughly 60 new

construction completions that were

active now we have almost 500 of them

that are active so that is a huge

increase nearly a 10x not quite 10x but

close to a 10x increase in terms of

just new construction active inventory

that is on

MLS All right now let's pip it away from

from new construction of course if

you're if you're looking for housing

right now new construction can be a

great option okay a lot of people are

kind of jaded to new construction

because they feel it looks a lot of it

looks cookie cutter at least the new

construction that's being built built

for you know your standard middle class

buyer but you know some people

think they look too cookie cutter some

people aren't happy about the lot sizes

all of these different things but

nonetheless it is there I've had a lot

of new construction closings for clients

over the past few years and there are a

lot of great options out there if it

fits what you're looking for all

right so now let's pivot away from the

from new construction let's talk about

out of these active

listings what are we looking at per

price point so at the less than or

equal to

$100,000 price point there were only

19 active listings back in 2021 well

guess what that hasn't changed the the

days of there being homes for at or

below

100,000 those days are gone there's 20

of them currently so basically unchanged

and I mentioned last time

I'll mention it again this that could

include some rentals sometimes real

accidentally will list a rental home as

if it's for sale for like $2,000 and

what they mean is that it's $2,000 a

month so that might be confounding

some of the data but basically there's

nothing for sale at that price point

what about the 100,000 to 200,000 price

point back then we had 160 of them

for sale now we have 238 of them for

sale so that's no small increase that's

like a 50% increase so that is something

something that's noteworthy although

238 isn't a lot but that's something

right if you're in the below 200k price

point two having 238 options is a ton

more than having 160 options because

you're it's just slim pickings all

around so every additional inventory

unit that can be in there is going to be

a great find for you what about the 200

to 300K price point back then it was 535

of them were active now

1,35 of them are currently active in the

200 to 300K price point again great news

if you're a buyer that is very classic

at least for the way the market is right

now that is typically your first-time

home buyer is going to end up in that 2

to 300K price point and they have

roughly two and a half times the options

versus what they had 3 years ago what

about the 300 to 400k price point 220

active listings back then 1,00 active

listings currently so that one went up

by what five times in in the course

of of this three years so there's five

times as many homes in the 300 to 400k

price point as there was back then again

that is great news for buyers what about

the above 400k price point back then

there were 466 now there's

1,449 of them so over a thousand more

homes listed that are active in the

above 400k range versus what it was back

in

2021 so if you're looking at that that

tends to be be that you know that's

going to obviously include some luxury

housing that's going to include some

some nicer you know upper middle class

housing it's going to include some homes

that are just unique or that are on a

substantial amount of land or things of

that nature and so there's just

there are a lot more options so all

chaos had broken loose back then all

chaos has not broken loose right now

actually the market is pretty slow I

have felt a slow down quite a bit

everyone I talked to has felt quite a

bit of a slow down it's going to be slow

for for the rest of this year that's

just the reality of the situation once

we hit Labor Day I think it's going to

slow down tremendously so if you're a

seller you want to get your house on the

market ASAP you don't want to find

yourself in October and November

trying to trying to offload a house when

the market really cools down if you're a

buyer you have way more options than you

normally do now will the 4,000 and

change actives will stay at that level

typically we would see inventory start

to come down that hasn't happened yet

right like I said we've been in this low

4000s range for some time now but I

do think once we get into the fall

months Supply will start to go down

probably not as fast as the demand will

but the supply for sure will go down

we'll probably dip back down into the

high 3000s if I had to guess but long

story short the market very different

than it was when all chaos had broken

loose and that is is a good thing I

don't look back fondly to the time when

there were only 1,41 active listings

like I represent a lot of buyers as a

realtor and it's just it's hard when you

know I mean it it's it's yeah it was

just crazy you know i' I'd be showing 10

to 12 homes to a buyer we'd be putting

offers in almost all of them and would

just be getting out bid over and over

and over again it was you know cash

buyers over and over again that was a

crazy part is that you know everyone was

trying to buy things because

financing was so cheap mortgage rates

were so cheap but in spite of that there

were all these cash transactions that

were coming in they kept winning out

on some many of these offers so I I

don't miss back then trust me about that

now I wouldn't mind if the market was a

little bit a little bit more

interesting right now right I I don't

care for it to be super slow it

hasn't gotten to that point just yet at

least not for me but I would mind

if it picked up a little bit but let's

not go back to to what happened back

then I'm a little bit concerned to be

honest we we know that interest rates

are getting cut soon the FED chairman

from Jackson Wyoming he announced

that he's ready to start cutting rates

I think it's not so much a question

of whether they'll cut rates in

September but how much is it going to be

25 basis points or 50 I tend to think

it's going to be 25 and that we'll start

to see you know multiple Cuts happen in

the future so rates are going to start

to come

down but we don't know what's going

to happen in the broader economy and we

also have a presidential election and we

don't know what the outcome of that will

be because particularly vice

president Harris is talking a lot about

housing stuff some of it I like some of

it I don't maybe I'll get into that

in a future episode but but

there's a lot that could happen in the

next few months and going into next year

that could really swing the pendulum in

a variety of different ways on housing

and if first time home buyer tax

credits start to go out watch out I

don't think we're going to get back down

to this 1241 active listings range

but we would certainly see real estate

inflation start to start to take hold

again and we'd start to see demand

start to flood the market again and then

that would result in Supply starting to

get absorbed which is exactly what

happened all those years ago so it's

going to be interesting to see it's

going to be interesting to track and I

will be giving you guys the entire scoop

all the way so please keep watching keep

listening hit the Subscribe button like

the show rate the show review the show

reach out to me if you need a realtor in

Greenville South Carolina reach out to

Piper Insurance Group if you need a home

Auto or Umbrella insurance company and

I will see you guys and talk to you guys

next time