Hello everyone and welcome to another

episode of Selling Greenville your

favorite real estate podcast here in

Greenville, South Carolina, I am your host

as always Stan Mccune I am a realtor here

in Greenville so if you need a realtor

please look in the show notes you will

find all my contact information in there

and I can help you with any of your

local Greenville Spartanburg Pickins

whatever real estate needs and just a

reminder as always please like, rate,

review, subscribe to the selling

Greenville podcast, make sure you don't

miss future episodes and of course I'd

be remiss if I didn't mention that this

show is sponsored by Piper Insurance

Group they are my go-to for Home Auto

and Umbrella Insurance they're an

independent insurance agency so they

can price quote amongst different

carriers get you the best possible price

they're located in South Carolina but

they do service in North Carolina and

Georgia as well they've helped me

with a variety of properties including

flips rental properties things of

that nature they can help with ground up

new construction ensure those properties

commercial properties as well so please

reach out to Piper Insurance Group

contact information in the show notes

reach out to them today and if you don't

I'm going to be very angry with you

because all you need to do is reach out

to them and ask them for a free quote

that's not very hard you that might save

you a bunch of money right I'm not going

to sit here and say you know like a a

Geico commercial that you May save

whatever percent cuz I don't know where

they come up with that number I think

they just make it up I'm not going to

say that to you guys cuz I'm straight

with you guys but I do know that Piper

Insurance Group does a great job so

please reach out to them and and you

will not regret it all right so we

finally have the gjr market stats a

little late in the game but you know

there's been a few things going on these

days in the world of real estate so I am

not going to be too harsh on them oh I

pulled up the wrong ones here if you're

watching on YouTube this is a a good

episode to watch on YouTube because

I'll be showing you guys a bunch of

charts and whatnot from the greater

Greenville Association realtor they

produce this information every month

some months it comes a little bit later

than others but it's always

helpful to go through I'm not going to

spend a ton of time getting into the

Weeds on this but I do want to run

through this even though it's a month

late the these are the stats for the

month of

July and and I do think that there's

some interesting tidbits so we're going

to start right at the top with new

listings new listings were up

18.2% this is now 10 straight months

of year on-year increases on new

listings so people have gotten tired of

waiting they have started to list

their homes and we had

254 new listings up year on Year from

1,737 so now we've had now five

consecutive months of over

2,000 listings new listings and that

is by far record I mean we've never had

a year with more than I think you know

if you're looking at this chart two was

the most back in back in 2022 we had

two months over 2,000 new listings now

we've had five straight months this is

what we're talking about when I talk

about more Supply coming into the

market that's what's happening is a lot

more new listings coming online pending

sales the most recent month we always

need to adjust I'm going to change how I

handle this the way I've handled this in

the past is I've really focused on two

months prior where we can see the most

accurate

information so so for instance the

month of June now we have the revised

numbers for the month of June we know it

was a 2.1% year- on-year increase

from June

2023 but I've been doing this long

enough that I know pretty much exactly

what's happening and until

this changes I'm just going to roll with

this so July it currently says 927

pending sales the this number is usually

off it's usually Low by about 500

pendings I don't know why it's off by so

much so we can expect July to come in

around 1,400 pendings and that's going

to be a huge year on-year increase from

July 2023 which was 1,284 so if I'm

correct we're going to have a one of our

biggest increases if not maybe the

biggest increas increase of the year

yeah actually it would end up being the

largest increase of the year if that

ends up happening and so it looks

like you know when we look at this data

basically the the pending sales

numbers have been running pretty hot for

for most of this year so last year we

saw you know after the mortgage rate

increase cycle which by the way we're

going to talk about mortgage rates at

the end here if I remember to but the

mortgage rate cycle that that started

in the middle of 2022 when rat started

going high relative to where they had

been that resulted in demand really

plmeting demand has rebounded even

though demand is still it's it's

still lower than it should be I mean if

you're looking at the chart you can see

that in comparison to to other years we

had seen a gradual increase every

year for for quite some time and that

trend line has just gotten wonky the

past couple of years but we have seen

pendings at least be higher year on-year

for most months of 2024 in comparison

to 2023 what about closed sales well

pending sales usually directly

correlates to closed sales and

unsurprisingly we we've with the

stronger pendings that we've had

pendings by the way is just when a home

goes under contract in a given month

that's all that that is closed sales

have have been strong now we talked

about if I remember correctly last

month we talked about how sometimes

homes can fall through right contracts

can fall through with the end result

being that sometimes those pending sales

numbers don't Direct directly correlate

to a Clos sale one to one every time

but when you acrew multiple straight

months of strong pending sales numbers

that does eventually equate to Clos

sales numbers and that's what we had in

July July ran super hot for closed sales

a lot of people trying to close before

the end of the end of the summer we

had

1,563 closings in the month of July and

that was an 18.3% increase year on-ear

the biggest increase that we've had in a

long long long time I mean I can't

remember I I think we'd probably have to

go back to 2021 since we've had an 18.3

increase in closed sales so that's

telling me again conser behavior is

starting to take into account the fact

that you know rates are a little bit

lower than what they were a few months

ago and they're a lot lower than what

they were a year or so ago and a little

bit more demand has come into the market

in recent months as a result we've now

run out of the past let's see here 1

2 3 4 five six out of the past 6 months

five of those have been year onye higher

on closed sales all right let's talk

about days on Market days on Market

went down a little bit month- on month

to now 40 days that's a slight

increase year on Year from July 23 which

was 38 days on Market what does that

mean basically you list a house you

can expect it to go under contract on

average within 40 days

again that's the average some homes I

I've had couple listings the past

couple of weeks that I've gone under

contract within the first week so and

that's typically what happens with my

listings but I've had some that you

know the past year also took a lot

longer the point is or or the

important detail is that this number is

still pretty low as long as we are in

the low 40s or below we are at

historically low numbers which you can

see in the chart here so that's good

for sellers for buyers not so great

but again we we've talked about this

data a lot the market has softened a lot

for buyers buyers don't have a lot to

complain about right now other than the

high rates and the high rates are a big

one but in terms of market dynamics

these days on Market until sale there's

some things that have changed kind of

fundamentally since Co and this is one

of them we would expect this to be back

up to preo levels this is one of the few

things on here that we have that we

would expect to see at pre-co levels

that isn't and I just think that that's

a result of of buyers and and perhaps

Sellers as well right I'll give an

example here so when I have a listing

now if we get an offer right away in

in the past there might be grounds for

saying well let's kind of drag this out

a little bit let's see you know we might

get other offers we might get better

offers and sometimes sellers just don't

want to accept the first offer that

comes their way but in the way the

market is right now with inventory being

higher than it's been in a while buyer

behaviors are kind of weird sellers are

L more amenable to accepting the first

offer that they get and so that drives

this number down as well and then I do

think that buyers have fundamentally

changed their behavior since CO as well

where they are like hey I can't if if

the home that I want comes on the market

I can't waste time I've got to go ahead

and move on it and so we may be seeing a

stretch of historically low days on

Market numbers coming up here because

I would not expect that number to be

sitting where it is right now but that

is exactly where it's sitting all right

let's look at the median sales price

this is basically you know it's not a

onetoone correlation to what we call

appreciation right so we can't say that

the market has appreciated by x% on the

basis of the median sales price but it

is the closest metric that we have to

really track that for our Market

and so with that in mind I think it's

noteworthy that we just hit for the

month of July 2024 the highest medium

sales price ever only by hair but it was

the highest ever 325,000 just

narrowly squeaking out the October 324

900 number that we had in October

2023 but 325,000 new record highest

price ever recorded for the median in

the greater Greenville area and that's a

1.6% increase from the 320 that we had

in July of 2023 average sales price did

not hit a record but is flirting near

the top of the trend line it was up at

398,000 and change of course the

averages are skewed by luxury homes

that you know sell for 2 million we have

a few million doll homes that sell in a

month that really skews this number

and so the median is really more

accurate you know what's the average

price in Greenville usually when people

ask that what they really mean is what's

the median I would tell them 325,000 but

if you want the true average it's

398,000 and that's a 4.1% increase year

onye over the 382 and change that we had

in July

2023 again nice expensive and luxury

homes are a lot more of a thing in the

Greenville Market than they ever have

been and that's what's driving that's

why you know when you look when you

compare the year-on-year increases for

the median sales price versus the

average sales price the numbers

generally are higher for the averages

and and the the year on year increases

are higher for the averages than for the

median and that is because of just a lot

more people buying those those more

expensive luxury houses than in the

past percent of list price received this

is the this is what you get when you

divide a property sales price by its

most recent list price so doesn't

account for price reduction auctions but

it is what it is then you take the

average for all properties sold in a

given month not accounting for seller

concessions I'm going to come back to

the seller concession thing here in a

second but the percent of list price

received was 98.5% that's actually a

decrease again we've now had four

straight months of decreases year on

Year from July 2023 so sellers are

taking a little bit less than you

know in terms of what they're

accepting versus what it's listed for

than what we experienced back back in

2023 but it's still pretty normative

right

98.5% that compares pretty favorably to

pre-co numbers and so you list a

house for $100,000 you can expect it to

sell for roughly 98 and change that is

you know I'm I'm speaking generally

because again this doesn't account for

for Price drops or things of that

nature nor does it account for seller

concessions but that's something to

consider now seller

concessions let's talk about that for a

second because as I've talked about in

multiple episodes this month we had a

big or if you're listening to this in

September and multiple episodes in

August we've had some pretty big

changes when it comes to realtor

compensation and now a lot of sellers

will find themselves paying concessions

towards paying for a buyer agent

commission whereas in the past that was

kind of factored into the listing

commission indirectly

and I'm oversimplifying things again

but for the purposes of this episode I'm

just going to run with

that so here's what I think is going to

happen I think we're going to see a lot

more seller concessions than we have

ever seen and that's going to end up

skewing this I I would not be shocked if

this percent of list price for Steves

starts to go way up because I'm already

starting to see buyers offering above

list price in order to factor in that

they need the seller to pay for the

agent commission so let's keep track

of this one currently sitting at 98.5 I

would not be shocked if we end the year

in above n above 99% let's just

say that we'll see if I'm if I'm right

on that it's not a prediction that's

more just I wouldn't be surprised if

that happens not making predictions

when it comes to this kind of stuff in

this very uncertain environment

there's it just feels like things are

changing constantly housing

affordability index the second

straight month of something positive

housing became more affordable for

people not because of prices but because

of mortgage rates so we're now sitting

at 93 for housing affordability index we

want that to be 100 or higher because

that's the point at which the average

family can afford the average priced

home technically me I'm saying

average I it's really median but you

know how that works but it's sitting

at 93 if if rates go down here in the

next few months we could get back up

into the high 90s or the low 100s that

that would be great for people for

buyers specifically but also good for

sellers right it's good for sellers when

the market is Affordable it's not

good for sellers When Buyers can't

afford their homes so we want this

number to be all parties want this

number to be a high number as much as

possible inventory of homes for sale

this is also a number that's typically

skewed by 500 but typically about 500

High all right so currently it's saying

July 2024 are inventory which is the

number of properties for sale and active

status at the end of a given month

4,885 which if that was accurate would

be a 53% increase over the 300

3,192 of July 2023 that's going to be

revised it's going to be revised down by

about 500 and it'll probably sit

close to

4300 4400 something like that which will

still be a huge increase we're still

talking about about a 40% increase year

on-year but not quite as large of an

increase now what does that mean

historically well

historically if if we're coming in in

the in the 440 ranges that's putting

us pretty much above pre-pandemic Norms

so in terms of our just gross inventory

right not factoring in demand only the

supply side of things we do have some

some pretty tremendous Supply right now

in comparison to recent history and

particularly the co era but even

going back pre-co era these Supply

numbers are kind of high now when you

look at month supply month supply does

look low because even with the

suppressed demand demand is still higher

than what it was preco that's because a

lot of people are moving to Greenville

obviously a lot of babies are being

born in Greenville all of that and so

families are growing people need more

housing all that kind of stuff so we

talk about demand being suppressed we're

not talking about historically we're

talking about right now in this moment

that demand is being suppressed you

we've seen a very specific trend line

for demand and that trend line has

fallen not fallen off a cliff but it has

gone over a cliff and is now trending

in a negative Direction whereas it had

been trending in a positive direction

for years upon years well that being

said if you want to compare it again if

you want to look at closings I'll go

back to that for a second closed sales

you can see our closed sales right now

are way higher than what they were pre

pandemic so when we're talking about

demand going down what we're talking

about is in comparison to the past few

years you could argue that the past few

years were artificial fine if you want

to make that argument but I just want to

add that context so with that in mind

our month supply of inventory which is a

metric by which we gauge whether we're

in a seller or buyer's market is still

much lower than it should be or or

much lower than it has been historically

and this number is which is 3.8 months

of Supply is skewed this is usually High

by about half a percentage point or half

a point and that's because it's

dividing that pending sales with the

with the inventory of homes and I

just said that both those numbers are

inaccurate so it's currently sitting at

3.8 it's probably going to get revised

down to about 3.3 so we're still sitting

at low months of inventory that being

said it's better than last year last

year July 2023 was 2.5 months so even if

we get revised down to 3.3 months that's

still going to be much much better for

buyers than what it was a few years ago

and it's still not bad for sellers right

this is not seller Market range at all

I've been saying we'd probably need to

see it into the fours to really start to

feel like it is a I don't know I can't

remember if I said sellers Market or

buyer Market before but but to

clarify we would need to see this number

get into the fours before it really

started to feel fully like a buyer

Market it's still in that soft sellers

Market range it's kind of what I would

consider things right now for the

purposes of of clarifying that's all

we're going to cover for today in

terms of these numbers I am trying to

get a little bit faster at going

through that so that we're not just

getting bogged down in all of the

details but I want to talk about

rates for a second so rates are now

actually you know what I will go ahead

for those watching let

me pull up well pull something up here

I'm G to pull up mortgage News Daily and

I'll just screen share this with you

guys mortgage News Daily this is where I

go to kind of see you know okay did I

just share the right things sorry about

this this is not good okay let's try

this one more time you'd think I've

never done this

before there we go all right mortgage

News Daily this is what I look at you

know when I'm talking to you guys about

mortgage rates this is the chart that

I'm looking at that I'm that I'm trying

to use to determine okay what direction

are rates going in and rates are going

in a very positive direction currently

per mortgage News Daily now these are

averages this is metadata I can't tell

you what your mortgage rate will be okay

let's be very clear on this if you're a

potential buyer your mortgage rate that

is between you and the Lord or

specifically between you and your lender

who is not the Lord but you know what

I'm saying you're lender and you have

to figure that out and and there are

ways you can even get your rate down

by buying your rate doing different

things like that buying down your rate

but right now the mortgage News Daily

30-year fixed rate number is

6.37 that is the lowest it has been in a

very very long time which if if you're

looking at this chart you can see that I

mean it's the lowest that it's been

since well we had a a little blip

back earlier in the month of August

it went down to 6.34 but it shot right

back up right away other than that I

mean you have to go back to

boy you have to go back to basically

like April of of 20

23 since we've had rates this low so

this is really if we're talking about

why have we seen pendings and closings

going up if there's one simple thing to

point at it's this rates are better than

they have been that means affordability

is better and this is why I tell you if

you're a buyer don't get too caught up

in the headline number right the list

price the purchase price the contract

price think about your monthly payment

because your monthly payment is what you

actually pay right if your monthly

payment is going to be $2,000 a month

now for a house that was going to be

cheaper but still also $2,000 a month a

few months ago I don't know if any of

that made sense but basically don't get

caught in the fact that what was the

house that might have cost you $2,000 a

month a few months ago you might be be

able to get a better house for $2,000 a

month now that's what I'm trying to say

sorry that that came out really clumsy

but but more to this point this is

what's interesting is that so the FED

has not reduced rates yet but they said

basically J Powell in Wyoming basically

said we are going to start rate cutting

in September that was a big question I

talked about this a few a few weeks

ago rate cuts are coming but are they

coming in September or November that was

real question well it appears that they

are coming in September by the time

you're listening to this it should be

this month that they are actually

happening and so that's great news

the markets have already kind of priced

that in now the question is whether it's

going to be 25 basis points or 50 basis

points if you're thinking about that

from a from a mortgage standpoint you

could think about that as

0.25% or 0.5% and again what the FED

does doesn't directly impact mortgage

rates it's all indirect but what they

do will have an impact one way or the

other and so the there's a question

right now of whether the FED is going to

cut rates

aggressively that would be .5 a 50

basis point cut or not as aggressively

which would be 25 I tend to think

they're going to be not as aggressive

and that's mostly because historically a

50 basis point cut would only happen

when we're in a true economic crisis and

I don't see any indication that the FED

feels that we are in a true economic

crisis but I've been wrong about

these guys before the FED they are

very unpredictable these days and so I

don't exactly know what's going to

happen but the good news is that we

are seeing relief on the mortgage rate

side we're seeing the spread between the

10-year yield and the 30-year fixed rate

start to get a just a little bit better

but every little bit that it gets better

that helps borrow

and so I'm happy if you're a buyer

this is I don't want to say it's the

best time to buy but but this is a

things are promising right because rates

haven't gotten so low that demand has

skyrocketed as we've already talked

about but rates have gotten lower to the

point that's meaningful I mean some

buyers might be able to buy down their

rate possibly into the high five

depending on what exactly you're doing

with your lender so so there's a lot

of positives that I see and that I'm

excited for and I think if you're a

buyer right now you should be thinking

about okay do I need to get off the

sidelines right now now are rates going

to get better yeah probably but at some

point as these rates get better there's

going to be a Tipping Point where demand

starts to get crazy again I think it's

going to be somewhere in the fives not

exactly sure if it's high fives or low

fives right that's the that's the

that's a big debate right now in real

estate circles some people think

around 575 mortgage rate that's where we

would start to see things get crazy some

people think it's closer to like

5.25 we'll have to see nobody knows

we're all just kind of making educated

guesses but that's just something to

keep in mind while rates are still in

the sixes probably demand is going to be

suppressed and and once demand picks

up again then you're going to see prices

go up again so there's a little bit of

of a play interplay going on here

between rates and prices that impact

housing affordability but again my

general advice is focus on your monthly

costs don't Focus so much on on the

headline here's what the purchase price

of the home is otherwise you're doing

yourself disservice that's all for

today's episode I appreciate you guys

listening my contact information is in

the show notes if you need a realtor in

the Greenville area Piper Insurance

contact information is in the show notes

if you need a home Auto or Umbrella

insurance company in South Carolina

North Carolina Georgia please rate

like rate review subscribe all of those

things for the show and we will talk

again next time