Hello everyone and Welcome to another

episode of Selling Greenville your

favorite real estate podcast here in

Greenville, South Carolina, I'm your host

as always Stan Mccune realtor right here in

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so this past week job openings data came

in and it came in soft in other words

there were fewer job openings than

expected higher layoff numbers than some

people expected and general numbers that

don't bod well for the economy now the

data is what we call noisy in other

words it's not clear it's not just all

straight up bad not all of the data is

bad but but everyone's reading the Tea

Leaves of the of this data and trying to

figure out what's going on and the

general trend is that in general the

economy is showing weaker numbers than

what it had a year ago and it's been

going trending in that direction in

general and so people have been

waiting for this for a long time and of

course now we've got about half a

year of data trending in this direction

and so immediately once the job openings

data C came out the yield curve for the

2-year treasury yield and the 10-year

treasury yield went from being inverted

to being uninverted now since then the

yield curve has rein verted but it it

may go back and forth that has happened

in the past who knows but I want to

discuss this for second without

hopefully getting two in the weeds and

I'm going to if if you have no idea

what I'm talking about with Y curves I'm

going to cover that here in just a

second I just want to say for starters

I'm no Economist and I don't pretend

to be one but I track this stuff because

it has massive implications for Real

Estate it also makes for a heck of a a

heck of good material for a podcast

so I think it's worth discussing what

this means for the economy but more

specifically for the housing

market now I tell you guys from time to

time this is a Greenville real estate

podcast but this specific episode is

kind of kind of be more National because

we're going to be talking more about

some of the National Data but obviously

it pertains to to Greenville as well

but sometimes the national Trends and

the Greenville Trends don't exactly

mirror so just keep that in mind so

before we get go any further let's talk

about what the yield curve is and why

are we even talking about inverted y

yield curves and uninverted yield yield

curves and and all these different

things so the short version of what

this all means is this when they're

calculating the yield curve they're

taking the 10-year treasury yield which

you can just Google right now and look

up what number that is it's probably

going to be in the in the High 3

something like that they'll take the

10-year treasury yield whatever that

number is and then divide that by

whatever the 2-year treasury yield

number is and if after dividing it if

the basically if the 10e is higher than

the 2-year that is a normal yield curve

if the 2year is above the 10year then

that is an inverted yield curve that's a

very very simplistic way to explain

it let me explain it a different

way this is a this is kind of a more

dictionary definition but essentially

the yield curve is a graph that plots

the interest rates yields of bonds

having Equal Credit quality but

different maturity dates normally the

yield curve slopes upward meaning that

the longer term bonds such as the

10-year have higher yields than the

short-term ones such as the year that's

because investors logically demand

higher returns for tying up their money

for a longer period okay that should all

hopefully make sense to you guys

investors can choose to invest in the

10-year yield or the 2-year yield if

you're investing for a longer period of

time you want more money for your

investment that's a long that's a risk

that's spread out for longer and it's so

it's a greater risk so the inverted

yield curve is when this relationship

flips short-term yields become higher

than long-term yields and as I've

already said the the one that people

track the most is that the 2-year bond

has a higher yield than the 10-year bond

and basically when when it when it

inverts and the 2-year is higher than

the 10-year that inversion suggests that

investors expect future economic growth

to slow down which often leads to lower

interest rates in the future okay again

I'm I'm not going to get too far into

the Weeds on any of this I'm just kind

of giving you guys a broad

overview so one of the main reasons why

an inversion occurs is there's an

expectation of an economic downturn so

investors for instance might anticipate

a recession or just an economic slowdown

and that prompts them to seek safety in

long-term bonds even at lower yields so

here's what happens they flock to those

longer term bonds in order to find a

quote unquote safe investment and

they're willing to take it for

cheaper than than a two-year yield

because they are just looking for

something that's going to be safe and so

this increased demand for long-term

bonds drives their prices up and their

yields down now there are other

things on the monetary policy side in

terms of central banks raising

short-term interest rates to combat

inflation things of that nature

that's also a possibility that can

cause this inversion to happen but

generally speaking it's the first option

and that's typically when people see an

inverted yield curve it's typically the

result of Traders speculating on

where the economy is heading and when

the yield curve inverts that's generally

speaking a way of for Traders to say we

don't like what we see in the economy

now I've already said that briefly this

past week the yield curve uninverted

by the way I'm recording this on

September the 5th I'm going to be

gone I have an extended weekend I'm I'm

going to be gone out of town and so

I'm recording this a little early so

some of these numbers you know if you're

listening to this in the middle of

September some of these numbers might be

a little bit different just keep that in

mind but the yield curve briefly

uninverted and and it did reinert but

that again that's not uncommon for that

to happen but it it briefly uninverted

and immediately when that happened

the other day headline and sentiment on

social media was immediately very

confused many people think that the

yield curve uninverted means that we are

just back to normal right the inverted

yield curve means that Traders think

we're going into a recession so when it

uninverted or disin verts whichever

you know tomato tomato I'm going to say

un invert when it un

inverts we're back to normal and a

crisis has been averted but historically

that's not actually the case and the

simple way to think about it is this are

you betting that the short-term or

longterm is going to be better

economically when investors are scared

about the future they bet on the short

term and when investors are scared about

right now the near term then they bet on

the long term well here's the rub

sometimes they are scared of both and

essentially just pull money out of both

and just invest in other things

altogether rather than bonds and

treasuries and so when the yield curve

inverts it's generally because investors

are or I should say when it un

inverts it can be the result of

investors essentially just pulling money

out altogether out of bonds and

treasuries and kind of causing things to

normalize and when that happens it's not

normalizing because Traders investors

think that things are okay it's

normalizing because they're just scared

and they're just ch they're just

pivoting in terms of their investment

strategy now again it can mean other

things than that but that's generally

speaking what it means and if you're

watching on YouTube I'm going to

actually pull up a nice little chart for

you guys to

see this chart shows yield curves from

from the past 40 years basically the

there's a line at zero if the graph

is above zero that's a standard un

you could call it an uninverted yield

curve if it goes below zero that's

when the inversion happened

now one second here I'm trying to pull

things around so that I can actually see

this with painful accuracy the

uninversity it's 1955 so every recession

that we've had in this country since

1955 has seen this yield curve invert

before it then un inverts and then when

it un inverts is when you actually see

the recession happen so if you're

looking at this chart the grayout areas

those are all the recessions that have

happened and and the chart I'm showing

you only goes back 40 years but these

are the recessions from the past 40

years so you can see each time the yield

curve inverted

but it wasn't until uninverted that

we went into recession so we had that

happen in the late 80s into the early

90s boom recession late sorry

early 2000s it inverted then uninverted

boom recession 2007 2008 it inverted

it bounced back and forth inverted

uninverted inverted again then

uninverted again in 2008 boom

recession covid same thing it it it

inverted right before covid then

uninverted during covid boom

recession and so this is very

accurate extremely extremely accurate

and since this has been tracked there's

only been one time that we've had the

yield curve invert and then uninverted

and so it's possible that there

won't be a recession because it like I

said it happened one other time that

this Dynamic happened without a

recession but that is the exception not

the rule so which narrative is Right are

we are we going back to normal are we

entering into a recession well as I've

just alluded to it's hard to know the

traditional metric that many people use

to determine if we're in a recession or

not is once we've had two consecutive

quarters of negative GDP growth but

that's a lagging indicator in other

words by the time we have the data

indicating that we've had two

consecutive quarters of negative GDP

growth then we'll already have been in

the recession for two quarters of course

I like to get you guys ahead of the game

I don't want you guys to be looking at

lagging data let's let's try to look

ahead let's try to prognosticate what's

happening but the challenge of of

prognosticating all of that is that

there's really a fair question of

whether any of the old metrics that

we've used for for tracking the economy

for tracking the housing market and all

of that whether those old metrics even

apply anymore since Co obviously the

economy is fundamentally different since

Co and we talked about how many housing

metrics we look at that can't really be

compared to pre-co for instance months

of inventory that's one we we talked

about quite a bit when we go over the

market stats our months of inventory

right now are historically very low but

it doesn't feel that you know

normally months inventory being in the

low three is where they are right now

that would be like a crazy sellers

Market but it's not a crazy sellers

Market it's kind of a soft sellers

Market and so those are the sorts of

things where it's like we're having to

kind of adjust on the fly in terms of

how we look at all of this

data now is that true of the economy as

a whole or can we still trust the old

metrics for instance the GDP rule

there's another rule called the Sam or S

rule

sahm that would indicate that we are

going into a recession economists are

really split on this question and since

I'm not an economist I'm certainly

not going to try to weigh in on on

that question directly but I do want

to tease this out for a second without

me going beyond what I'm capable of

talking about let's think about what

would the housing market look like if we

went back into a recession cuz we talked

about on the show before that not every

recession is inherently a housing market

recession and actually we have been in a

housing market recession now for a

couple of years without the broader

economy being in a recession or without

consistant believing that it is in a

recession so what's happening in the

housing market doesn't always

necessarily track with what's happening

in the broader

economy okay so let's go back to that

question what would an actual recession

in the economy look like for the housing

market well for starters mortgage rates

would likely come down substantially in

fact in the wake of the job openings

data that I referenced that that caused

the briefly the uninversity

sitting at

3.73 which is really low compared to

what it has been the past couple of

years and as we've talked about before

the 10-year treasury yield correlates

directly to mortgage rates meaning that

when the 10-year yield drops typically

mortgage rates drop with it and that's

exactly what we've seen mortgage rates

have now come down they're they're

close to their the lowest that

they've been the past 12 years the the

lowest they've hit not the past 12 years

12 months I believe the lowest

according to mortgage News Daily that

they've been the past 12 months is

6.34 as of this recording they're at

6.35 so they're hovering right right

near the the oneyear low that we have

seeing for that specific number and

of course if the economic situation

seems dire enough to the FED they will

start dropping rates as well so these

rates coming down are just a result of

of bond market is doing their thing with

Traders re readjusting reallocating on

the Fly but once the FED starts

cutting rates as well that will cause

mortgage rates to to drop a little

bit as well and so these are some of

the things that that we're looking at

okay now rates dropping usually means a

lot more demand in the housing market

but if rates are dropping because people

are getting laid off because the economy

is in bad shape because inflation's

going crazy all these things then

obviously it can cause the housing

market to dip or to even crash right

even if rates are going down

during this period of time so my

question is which impacts the housing

market more is it the economy as a whole

or is it mortgage rates well I think

that's an interesting question to ask

and I hope you guys think that's

interesting too and so I went about

asking and trying to answer it this way

I took three data sets from the Federal

Reserve historical averages for the

30-year fixed rate mortgage averages for

the for unemployment and averages for

inflation adjusted housing prices and I

took that data and I analyzed it in a

gazillion different ways to look for

Trends and here is what I found for

starters this is an easy one so we'll

we'll start with something that you can

comprehend very easily and then we'll

get into into the Weeds on on some other

things that won't be too complicated

but we be a little bit more to juggle

okay here's the easy one mortgage rates

when they are below

4% they that results in a sell Market

almost regardless of what's happening in

the economy so now I'm not predicting

that rates will do this but in the

examples where rates were where mortgage

rates were ever below 4% it kind of

didn't really matter what unemployment

was doing what inflation was doing what

anything was doing people buy houses in

that environment and so have for

sure an outsized impact when mortgage

rates are low but what about

unemployment well let's look at all the

different scenarios where mortgage rates

were above 4% right because I've already

said when when they're below 4% it kind

of doesn't matter what's happening in

the economy so let's look at the the

data set when they're above 4% and see

where there seems to be a major breaking

point in the the unemployment data so

basically how high does unemployment

have to be for home prices to start to

see a major impact and and I found that

there are tiers to this so the first

tier is 3.9% unemployment that's when we

first start to see home prices being

negatively impacted kind of just

across the board in in terms of not

necessarily home prices coming down but

home prices not keeping up with

inflation so I guess you could say from

an inflation adjusted standpoint they're

coming down but still you would still

consider it to be a appreciating it's

just not at the same rate as inflation

so basically this point 3.9%

unemployment that's where we start to

see home price appreciation start to

slow down a bit that being said most of

the data in that range for the for the

times that we've had 3.9% unemployment

would still be considered a seller

market so we see an impact there not a

huge impact tier 2 is around 4.2% on

employment I would classify tier 2 as

still a sellers Market but softer in

terms of historically when unemployment

has been in that 4.2% range now we're

currently sitting at around 4.3%

unemployment so this is where we are at

and this is exactly what it feels like

it feels like like a soft sellers Market

so right on point the next tier is

4.9% unemployment this is the point at

which we usually start to see a buyer

market and this is the point at which in

the data I start to see some old

recessions in there you know data from

around 2008 data from around 2000 data

from around the late 80s early 90s

tier four 5.5% unemployment and these

are generally catastrophic numbers for

the housing market full-blown housing

recession numbers typically with a few

random okay numbers sprinkled in

generally covid related numbers right

because remember unemployment mment went

insane for a few months because we had a

full economic shutdown and so

there's a few numbers in there that

aren't catastrophic for the housing

market but those are more outliers once

we get to 5.5% unemployment and mortgage

rates are above 4% that's usually really

really bad and then tier five it we

see another big change around 6 and a

half% unemployment and this is the point

at which there's just no positives all

the numbers are bad the housing market

is in full-blown freef fall typically at

that level and that is not what we

want to see generally speaking again

this is all all of these tiers that I'm

talking about are under the assumption

that mortgage rates are above 4% because

as I've already said below 4% even if

unemployment is at 6 and a half% it's

not going to have it's not going to have

a negative impact on the housing market

because there's going to be all sorts of

money flooding into the housing market

with rates at those

levels okay now what if we get now

creative with the data and combine the

30-year fixed rate mortgage with the

unemployment rate so basically add them

together so if the the 30-year fixed

rate mortgage is 4% on average at the

same time that the unemployment rate is

4% on average then this number would be

eight right 4 plus 4 now I'm not sure if

anyone has else has used this number

before I have no idea if they have my

apologies I haven't seen seen your work

I I respect your game but I haven't

seen it so I'm going to asse that

nobody has even though probably somebody

out there has but I'm going to give

this a name because if if I keep saying

the 30-year fixed rate mortgage plus the

unemployment rate that's just too much

so I'm going to keep this simple and

just call it the borrowing score right

because they hire the score once you

start adding to unemployment and the

mortgage rate the less likely people are

able to borrow and buy houses and the

lower the score the more likely they're

able to borrow money towards purchasing

houses right if unemployment and

mortgage rates are low it's going to be

more capital in in real estate more real

estate being purchased if those

numbers are both High then there's going

to be less money flowing into real

estate so looking at it from this

standpoint at what point do we start to

see the real estate market majorly

softening here well the big shift that I

noticed when I was analyzing this data

occurred around an 11 borrowing score so

right now the 30-year fixed rate

mortgage is sitting at

6.35 and unemployment is sitting at 4.3

so you add those two numbers together

and we're at

10.65 so if mortgage rates went back

into the high sixes with unemployment

where it is and likely getting worse

that would push us over the 11 borrowing

score threshold and that would be

bad for the housing market that would be

particularly for sellers for buyers

you know as long as you keep your job

and you're not one of the 4.3% of people

get getting laid off you know if

you're a buyer you might be okay with

that but again that's assing you

keep your job and and don't have a pay

cut and and all that kind of stuff so

where we're sitting right now at

10.65 we're below that threshold but it

wouldn't take much for us to go above

that threshold it could either take the

unemployment rate going from 4.3 to 4.8

or it could take the 30-year fixed rate

mortgage going from

6.35 to 6.7 while the while the

unemployment rate stays where it is or

some combination of the two and that

would be we would start to see a shift

in the housing market if we cross that

11

threshold now where we see a

catastrophic shift is around 11.45 this

is where Market collapses tend to happen

and so if we saw you know if we saw

unemployment start to really go up and

mortgage rates didn't start to come down

from where they are then

you know and we started to get above

11 and started to approach that 11.45

number that would be a problem for the

housing market so at the end of the

day does unemployment or do mortgage

rates impact the housing market more

here's my conclusion rates they both

impact the housing market but rates

impact it more and the difference

honestly is substantial the mortgage

rates versus the unemployment rate the

difference is substantial with mortgage

rates having a much more substantial

impact on the housing market than the

unemployment rate and the broader

economy so for instance I looked at

when the borrowing score was near its

highest point in all of the history of

this data and that was at or above 16

okay there in the entire sample that

I was looking at there were only 30

months that ever saw the borrowing

score hit above 16 and most of those

were between 1987 and 1992 there were

also some during CO as I mentioned

unemployment went nuts during Co now

for all of these examples all 30 of

these examples except for one the

30-year fix rate mortgage made up the

majority

of the borrowing score for instance

September 1987 the third-year fix rate

mortgage was

10.63 awful awful mortgage rates I feel

bad for loan officers back then and

the unemployment rate was 5.9 also a

really really bad number by the way

so so that came out to 10.63 sorry

to

16.53% the mortgage rate made up about

65% of that total borrowing score and

home prices are dramatically lower in

that scenario than in other scenarios

when the mortgage rate makes up less

than 50% of that score how much lower

are are home prices or or I guess I

should say how much higher are home

prices when the mortgage rate makes up

less than 50% of that SC of the

borrowing score they're about 20 to 25%

higher so when you take that full score

that full borrowing score and you

determine whether the mortgage rate

makes up greater than half of that score

or less than half that score that has a

direct impact on the housing market by

about 20 to 25% if rates take up less

than half of that score prices tend to

be about 20 to 25% higher than when

rates are make up mortgage rates make

up over half of that score with

everything else being equal okay that's

the important detail everything else

being equal you can't compare you know a

year that had or a month that had a 16

borrowing score to a year that or to a

month that had a nine borrowing score

right that's not Apples to Apples but I

compared this Apples to Apples and came

to this Universal conclusion that

that when the fixed rate mortgage made

up less than or greater than half of the

borrowing score that really swung the

housing market in One Direction or the

other so to put a bow on that the impact

mortgage rates have in the housing

market exceed the impact that the

unemployment rate has by quite a bit

although when you combine them together

and get a high score obviously it puts a

damper on home prices regardless unless

the mortgage rate is 4% or below so what

is all this mean for the for the Future

Let's prognosticate a little bit or

let's at least think about the future

and again I want to mention this is

National Data so it's hard to say

precisely what it would mean for

Greenville but I think we can make a few

General assumptions first off I think

the FED would start to get really

uncomfortable if unemployment surpassed

5% historically that has been kind of a

Tipping Point for the past three

recessions not including co co was the

exception to all the rules but in

terms of the other past three recessions

that we've had most recently 5% is kind

of when you see things start to snowball

and this is a concern generally with

unemployment data you can't just turn

off the spigot once once layoffs start

happening they start to snowball and so

once we start once we hit 5% usually we

get to 5 and a half% 6% very very

quickly and that's historically what

has

happened and so I think if we got at

or near 5% in the unemployment rate I

think that the FED would start to get

really uncomfortable and at that point

would probably start to make aggressive

rate cuts that would then impact more

mortgage rates at that

point so until we get data indicating

that unemployment is approaching those

sorts of numbers I think the FED will

still ease off rates as we've talked

about before but will do so kind of more

gradually so I've already said mortgage

News Daily has rates currently at 6.35

and they've been kind of hovering in the

in the mid 63s low 6.4 for the past

couple of weeks I think by the

beginning of next year by the beginning

of 2025 there's a good chance that

that those rates on mortgage newses

daily are are at or near just six maybe

even slightly below that maybe in the

high five so unemployment would have to

be at 5% along with these mortgage

rates to to be at six to push us into

that dreaded 11 borrowing score but as

I've already said I think the FED would

really start to get aggressive on rate

cutting if we got near 5% employment so

I really think that we're just going to

keep hovering below that 11 borrowing

score because you know unless unless

we see unemployment just suddenly take

off super

unexpectedly at a rate that it just

hasn't and the FED gets way behind and

doesn't ease off of rates quickly enough

then I just don't see a scenario

where we could get to 11 that really is

the only scenario where I could see us

surpassing that 11 borrowing score

additionally remember as mortgage

rates come down and unemployment goes up

up the percentage of the borrowing score

will be shifted more heavily towards

unemployment which as I've already

discussed is a positive for housing as

opposed to the current Dynamic where the

mortgage rate makes up most of the

borrowing score so long story short I

think for the time being we're safe

from a housing price collapse not saying

that off of Vibes I'm saying that off of

data if you disagree with me bring your

data don't bring your Vibes because

I'm not a Vibes guy I like the data

so what can we expect from here from my

reading of the data as long as the

borrowing score stays between 10 and 11

the market I believe is going to

continue to essentially be the way it

has been this year with prices going up

moderately months of inventory in the

mid to high 3es and and all of those

things holding steady this is as I've

already called it before and what I like

to call a soft sellers Market however if

we go into a recession where

unemployment goes above six but mortgage

rates go into or below the fours that

would result in an insane sellers market

and as I've already said rates add are

below four Trimp everything else

happening in the broader economy and

so at that point we would just throw out

the unemployment data doesn't matter the

housing market would go crazy but I

think that's pretty unlikely at this

stage nobody nobody should be banking on

rates going at or below 4% at this point

in the game I just it would just be

really shocking the economy would have

to deteriorate so much for the FED to

take action to to drive rates that

low now what if the borrowing score goes

below 10 which could happen if

unemployment Hold Steady while mortgage

rates go down then we'll see a big bump

in demand okay that's that's where we

would start to really see this shifting

from a soft sellers Market into a

standard sellers Market and I would say

as well even if the number kind of holds

in the mid t0s where we are but we start

to see that unemployment number go up

and the mortgage rate go down I think

we could get to the same place that way

too we could shift from a soft sellers

Market to a standard sellers Market

because again the outsize impact of

mortgage rates on that number would

become Apparent at that point and

by the way this scenario is exactly what

the FED is hoping to do they're they're

hoping to keep unemployment from getting

too high they're wanting to keep it kind

of I I suspect they would love to see it

stay just below five while slowly

tapering down rates the FED funds

rate which then also impacts the

mortgage rates and so this is what

they want to do this is what they're

trying to do so I think we have to say

that this is the most likely scenario

and this would push us from a soft

sellers Market into a more standard

feeling sellers Market not a crazy one

but just one where prices are going up

you know four to five 6% per year

sellers are selling homes pretty quickly

still a few months of inventory on the

market but buyers have to be

aggressive in order to get

homes now if we see the score go below

nine the borrowing score go below nine

that's when things would start to get

chaotic again and would start to feel

like we're going right back into 2021

through 2022 for that to happen mortgage

rates would need to be in the low fives

at the highest and the unemployment

rate would have to come down a bit from

where it would it's at now right it's at

4.3 so that would have to come down into

four or below mortgage rates would have

to come down to five or below

and again is that possible yes I don't

see that happening until at the earliest

2026 me personally that would be very

surprising if both those numbers came

down I think we're going to see

unemployment creep up a bit I think

we're going to see mortgage rates come

down a bit and then you know by

2026 perhaps at that point we'll start

to see the unemployment come down and

and perhaps the FED will feel

comfortable keeping rates mortgage rates

where they are at that point and maybe

they are around 5% at that point we

don't know but that would be the most

likely scenario where we would get to a

nine or below borrowing

score and I think the market would go

Bonkers at that point and so again

that's just two years from now a lot can

happen in the next two years I mean

that's an eternity in real estate but

I'm just telling you guys all of the

different scenarios and what I see so

there you have it maybe we're going into

recession maybe not either way going

into recession doesn't inherently mean

that the housing market will flip to

some kind of crazy buyers Market as

we've already seen we've been in a

housing recession for a couple of years

now and on the contrary it can have

the opposite effect if the economy goes

into recession but mortgage rates start

to come down so we need to consider what

mortgage rates are doing as part of the

equation of what's happening with all of

this because they have an outsized

impact on what's happening in the

housing market even when the economy
is

in the toilet that's all for today's

episode I hope that was helpful for you

guys bu contact information as always is

in the show notes if you need a realtor

in Greenville please like rate review

subscribe all of those good things with

the show reach out to Piper Insurance

Group for a free quote today they are

also in the show notes and we will talk

again next time