hello everyone and welcome to another

episode of selling Greenville your

favorite real estate podcast here in

Greenville South Carolina I'm your host

as always Stan mun realtor right here in

Greenville South Carolina you can find

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all right today we're going to be

talking about Market stats for the month

of October I know this probably feels

really delayed right because it's

December but um we had a few things that

uh that were in order that we had to uh

to address the

past couple of episodes I felt like and

so that's what we did right we went

ahead and addressed a handful of things

that need to be addressed oh I tried to

share my screen for those watching on

YouTube and I don't like the results all

right let's try that again there we go

um I always like to do that thankfulness

episode I could have instead done this

Market stats but a lot of people respond

that they like that uh that Thanksgiving

episode so I I like to keep doing that

every year I think it's a good reminder

for me as well um but and and regardless

if you've been following the show for a

while you know these Market Stats come

out uh kind of late in the month and so

we don't yet have November's numbers yet

so we're looking back at October

probably won't get November for another

few weeks um and so we'll address that

uh when the time comes uh but we're just

going to jump right in here I've got

some thoughts um on some of these

numbers and and I think just to start

off keep in mind one thing as you're

looking at all of these we had a major

storm event in

September in September sorry it just

worked out my throat is parched I should

have water right here I don't um we um

we had a major storm event in September

and that really threw off a lot I mean I

had a listing that went under contract

literally the day before Helen came

through and we still have not closed on

that property still under contract with

the same buyers um that got under

contract way back then um but we're

still waiting you know so um that has

caused a lot of impacts on a lot of

different things so I will keep coming

back to that throughout this episode

most likely um I don't have this episode

scripted out so who knows what I'll say

um but um that's something just to keep

in mind you don't want to draw massive

massive conclusions from data when we've

had a very wonky storm event that has

completely thrown off the entire local

real estate market but at the same time

we don't want to completely disregard

these numbers as well so let's just

start right at the top with new listings

new listings if you look historically

you'll see that we have been in the

positives year year-over-year

for every month for very long time on

new listings data we've been seeing a

lot of Supply coming into the market

more Supply coming into the market than

demand that has come into the market and

October reversed that Trend October was

the first month in a very long time that

we saw fewer listings year on year

versus the year before so October we had

1,860 new listings that was down from

1,877 October of 2023 now again

hurricane right the first few weeks of

October oober were completely thrown off

if not more I mean I had a I've had

several properties that I've listed uh

just the past few weeks that I was

supposed to list back in October so I

think in some cases we will still see um

probably listing spill into November or

December that were supposed to be listed

in September October um so we might see

um even though we we're seeing a kind of

a year-on-year dip here I imagine this

is going to rebound probably in a big

way once we get the November stats in

and perhaps the December stats as well

the only thing that might prevent that

is if people after getting through the

storm and all of that if they decide you

know what I really uh don't want to list

my home during the uh holiday season all

of that maybe they're concerned about

seasonal Trends those sorts of things I

don't know um so that does remain a

possibility but if I had to put money on

it uh my prediction would be that we'll

see these numbers rebound and the the

new listings data will probably end up

coming back pretty strong November of

last year only had, 1558 new listings

I'd be shocked if we had fewer than that

November of this year so we'll uh we'll

keep up with that pending sales the

count of properties on which offers have

been accepted in a given

month this is a number that's usually

Low by about 350 to 400 units for the

most recent month um so I'm not going to

put a whole lot of stock in October at

the moment I'll come back to that um

what we need to look at is September

September was our first month again in a

long time that had a negative

year-on-year number for pending sales

now I do think that this was impacted by

Helen right because Helen came in and

kind of wiped out the last few days of

the month and those few days can be the

difference

between uh 1128 pending sales which is

what we had and 117 3 which is what we

had September of

2023 um so that was a negative

3.8% uh that was a 3.8% decrease year

on-year uh that being said I feel like

that probably is deceptive um and and

probably what we'll end up seeing is

again October rebounding into a positive

year-on-year pending sales number um now

remember a lot of contracts are falling

through right now and so just because

these pending sales are high year on

year doesn't mean that they're

converting into closed sales year on-ear

which we'll talk about here in a second

um but the October number uh is looking

like it's going to be down uh quite a

bit from the 1194 that we had in October

of 2024 October of 2024 sorry October

2023 fall of 2023 was weird we had some

some wonky things that happened uh back

then that being said um it was a fairly

normal seasonal Trend if you're looking

on YouTube um you can see this little

bump there was a little bump that

happened in October that bump is not

that uncommon if you look back on some

other years that frequently happens

around this time of year um and so I

suspect that we'll probably end up uh

once the uh revised data for October

comes in pending sales we'll probably

end up being um probably pretty close to

this 1194 number if not perhaps in the

1200s um and so I don't think it'll be a

big decrease if it's any decrease at all

once the revisions come in um closed

sales we've now had um really a a

strange year of of ups and downs Topsy

Turvy kind of year in terms of some

months down year on year some months up

year on-ear September was down 1.7% year

on year but then October rebounded up

4.8% year on-ear again some of that is

probably due to the hurricane um right

we we ended up having several days of

closings that that were lost due to the

hurricane and then those closings got

bumped into October um once everyone got

their power back that was a whole that

was a whole thing Deeds couldn't be

recorded closing attorneys couldn't do

title searches A lot happened um so

October's uh closed sales were $

12299 uh as opposed to October of last

year which were 1239 so that's a 4.8%

increase year on-ear um I I again I

think that's those numbers are probably

a little bit uh inflated as a result of

Helen so we'll see what November ends up

being once it's all said and done um

days on Market until sale I told you

guys that this number was going to go up

and I think it's going to continue to go

up again because of this storm this is

out of all the numbers this is the one

I'm putting the least amount of stock in

because I already just gave an example

right a home that I listed in September

it went under contract right away and

it's not going to close probably until

the end of December so what's that going

to end up being that's going to end up

being a basically a 90day close for home

that went under contract right away

that's artificial that's an artificially

long transaction because a tree fell on

the house okay um so I would not be

shocked if these November and perhaps

even December numbers get pumped into

the 60s currently 54 days on Market

until sale what that means is that you

can kind of expect if you list a home

it's going to take close to two months

to go under contract but again I think

that this number is a little bit higher

than it should be

uh as a result of some of this Helen uh

uh effect we'll just call it the Helen

effect uh moving forward um but

nonetheless we'll look at the data here

54 days on Market was up

28.6% over the 42 days on Market that we

had in October of last year um so we

have to to track this right if this go

does go into the 60s and then doesn't

come back down into the 50s that's a

very meaningful thing but what I could

totally see this doing is going up into

the 60s for the rest of this year and

then coming back down to the 50s to

start next year that's very much in the

cards that's not a prediction I'm making

at this point we'll have a predictions

episode later this year uh before the

end of the year but um but that's

something that I could see happening for

sure uh median sales price for the first

time in a very long time we've now had

two straight months of the median sales

price showing a year onye decrease now

um I'll get to the numbers here in a

second but again I just want to point

out that October of last

year was kind of weird right October of

last year had one of really the the

second highest print that we've ever had

which was

324,000 was the median October of

2023 that was unusually high um and you

know we we had we saw it Crest that

number once again in July of this past

year um but that was an abnor normally

High number for the month of October um

needless to say we didn't hit that this

year we uh we were at

34,900 so 10,000 below that's a 3.1%

decrease year onye um and again um

that's it's significant it's for sure

significant I don't want to downplay the

fact that we've had two straight months

of year on-year

median uh decreases to the to the sales

price um does this mean that prices are

going down um it could but again I want

to see the Helen effect completely

purged out of the data before I say for

a fact prices are going down um I I I am

not putting a tremendous amount of stock

in this now has the market slowed yes

the market has absolutely slowed and

we're for sure seeing sellers not

getting what they want buyer generally

speaking and buyer not getting what they

want nobody is happy right now

everyone's unhappy happy with the way

with the state of the market right now

and that's just the way it is um but

we'll have to keep track of this if this

doesn't turn the corner right uh let's

just say by January um and we're still

seeing negative uh negative numbers

going into the new year then that's

something to uh to take note of it's not

necessarily a bad thing it's a bad thing

if you're a seller or someone that

really keeps up with your with the value

of your real estate but if you're a

buyer that could be a great thing and

I'm seeing some

really fantastic deals out there for

buyers um I I sent uh property to some

buyers recently they could have had it

for $55,000 less than what it ended up

selling for um now they all chickened

out for one reason or another um I and I

shouldn't say that they chickened out um

that that's really not a that's not a

fair way of framing it um they each had

different reasons for not being

interested um but uh but that's there

there are deals out there right now that

are not going to be out there for

forever because of the where the

mortgage rates are right now because of

the way the inventory situation is right

now because of uncertainty due to the

Trump uh Administration and how that's

going to impact things so there's a lot

of uncertainty and that is for sure

causing price appreciation to be

suppressed now whether prices are going

down or not as a result of something

other than the Hing effect that's a

separate question here's why I think

that the Helen effect for sure is

impacting this number I'll give you one

example um I'm not going to belabor the

point um but uh just one great example

there's a home that I saw that came on

the market recently for like 200,000

like which is pretty cheap right we just

we're talking about the median sales

price is 315,000 so a home that comes on

the market for 200,000 is is pretty

cheap uh by Greenville County standards

um so it came on the market for 200,000

I looked at it immediately and the first

thing I noticed there's just a massive

Tree on top of the house I was like okay

well I see why it's cheap but then I

look into the history of the house and

the house had actually been under

contract in the mid 300s and then that

contract fell through after the tree

fell on the home and I don't know if the

home owner didn't have insurance or if

they decided to just pocket the

insurance and just sell the home as is

rather than doing a bunch of work on it

but regardless there's a home that would

have sold for probably mid to high 300s

that's in instead going to sell in the

low 200s and that's a direct result of

Helen so that is how a storm like Helen

can cause these numbers to be suppressed

now interestingly the average sales

price was not affected negatively by

Helen actually the average sales price

had I believe the highest year-on-year

increase that I have seen since I've

started recording this podcast which is

almost 5 years at this point a 9.1%

increase year on-year

um up from

380 uh and change which was October of

last year up to 4115 and change October

of this year now I don't put as much

stock in the average sales price as I do

the median because the average is skewed

by when you get a bunch of expensive

Properties or a bunch of cheap

properties that sell on a month right

whereas the median just gives you that

middle number and it's really the most

accurate way to kind of track where

prices are going uh but I do find this

interesting we'll we'll come back to why

the average is so disconnected from the

median here in a

second percent of list price received um

we are now down to 98% we've been

flirting in the low 98s um we're we're

back down to 98% which is uh the lowest

that we've had all year so far and

that's uh 3.3% lower than the 98.3% that

we had in October of last year so

sellers not getting quite as much as

they uh as they have at other times of

the year but this is a seasonal number

right if you look at traditional times

of the year you can see towards the end

of the year the percent of list price

received goes down sellers are willing

to part with the home uh perhaps more

quickly uh maybe the the first offer

that they get rather than kind of

stringing things along because at the

end of the year they don't want to have

to be thinking about this they just want

to move on from whatever the property is

or or perhaps you know if they're if

they're moving themselves they're in a

position where they want to move uh

before the new year and so they're

willing to be a little bit more uh

aggressive in terms of uh you or not

aggressive depending on how you look at

it they're willing to accept usually

offers that are a little bit lower than

they would at other times and that's

what we're seeing uh with that housing

affability index uh we knew that this

was not going to stay above a 100 which

that's what we want right we want

housing affordability to be over 100

that means if it's over 100 roughly

speaking that the median household can

afford the median priced home based on

income levels based on mortgage rates

all of that well unfortunately mortgage

rates started to go up in October as uh

the uncertainty with the elections uh

really got baked in and that caused

affordability to go down it's now at 98

which is still uh very affordable uh in

comparison to much of the country um but

we would like to see that number to uh

to be over 100 that being said that's

much better than it was last year last

year was 86 um in October of

2023 uh and so this year it's at 98 so

what we're seeing is incomes have been

rising faster than the cost of real

estate has been rising and as a result

affordability is better than it was what

about housing

inventory this is a number that

sometimes gets revised let me look at

what

uh what last month's numbers were so

September when I looked at September of

uh of this year it came out as 5,1 that

got revised down to

4637 still a big increase from September

of 2023 when inventory was 3500 okay so

September had a big big increase in

inventory albeit not quite as big um as

what we originally thought based on the

numbers that came out so it went up 32%

32.4% year on-ear October is showing uh

that our inventory which is just the

number of homes for sale at the end of

the month is showing that inventory is

sitting at

4948 that would be a

35.3% increase over the 3656 of October

of last year however if we get a

revision comparable to this past month

which was a revision close to 500 units

then we'll actually find uh this number

falling below the September number um

and also being still being an increase

year on year but much of a less in much

less of an increase year on-ear versus

October of last year normally we would

see the month- on-month inventory

numbers go down so normally this time of

year you know you've we've already seen

inventory Crest and normally it would

start to go down from here um but that

usually starts a little bit sooner than

now but it might be as a result of all

the different things going on in

addition to uh in addition to the Helen

effect that perhaps The Descent of

inventory has started a little bit later

in the year so now uh it it's looking

increasingly like perhaps our peak of

inventory was September and now we're

going to start seeing inventory start to

fall and uh if you look at normal years

I'm not going to look at the uh pandemic

years but if you look at normal years it

kind of bottoms out in uh in uh December

January February and then starts to go

up usually February March when sellers

started to go back online and decide

that they want to sell their homes

again months of

inventory it's currently saying it's 3.8

I think that this is going to be revised

uh right because I just discussed the

inventory um and pending sales are

probably going to get revised both of

those things and month supply literally

divid divides uh it it divides the

monthly pending sales by inventory um

and so uh this is going to get revised

but it's currently sitting at 3.8 is

what is predicted um last month they

thought before revisions it was 3.9 and

then September got revised down to 3.5

so I think we can reasonably project

that October will probably come in once

this is revised at like 3.4 months of

inventory again hovering right in the

mid threes for inventory what does that

mean um it just means that uh supply and

demand is still staying it it's kind of

stabilized in the three and a half month

range for now um and so uh that means

the seller and buyer behaviors have

adapted somewhat um if we start to see

this number sore into the fours well

then that would tell us that uh that

would be an indicator that that prices

are likely to start coming down um and

that's why I'm not drawing too many

major conclusions from that median price

showing uh two consecutive months on of

year year on-year

declines because some of the other

fundamentals specifically this month

supply of inventory isn't showing uh

dramatic spikes until that

happens I'm not putting a ton of weight

in uh whether prices are actually

falling in any meaningful way um now I'm

I'm just going to discuss this real

quick um because for those of you that

might be interested in why the average

uh sales price and the median sales

price is so disconnected um I'm going to

show you guys a little chart here that I

normally don't and it's closed sales and

you'll see here we've got closed sales

at 150,000 and Below 150 to 250 250 to

350 350 to 500 500 to 750 750 to a

million and a million and above okay and

where are we seeing the biggest

increases year on year it is in the 350

and above um and and well let let me

come back to that but take 350 all the

way up through a million and above and

that is by far the biggest increases um

everything below 350 did increase

closing sales year on year except for

the 150 and Below um because there's

just not a whole lot of inventory 150

and a below but between 150 and 350 we

still saw increases but those those

increases ped and comparison so here's

the breakdown of the increases right

150,000 and Below was down 23.5% year

on-year it went down from 851 closed

sales last year that were at that price

point to only 651 this year that

Market's basically going away right the

150 and Below it's almost gone 651

closings in one month is not a whole lot

for that price

point 150 to 250 that was only up 1.4%

year on year it went up to uh 3441

closed sale sales versus

3393 250 to 350 price point that went up

5.1% year on-ear up to uh

5846 uh for 2020 for October

2024 and then here's where we start to

see the big numbers 350 to 500 up 9.8%

year onye up to

3636 uh which was over 300 units higher

than the year before October before um

500 to 750 was 8 up 88.2% year on year

up to 1621 versus 1498 October of the

year before 750 to a million was up

16.7% year on year so 448 versus 384 of

October of last year and then a million

and above was up a whopping

22.5% year on-year for October up to 462

versus 377 of last year so this is what

I'm talking about we have when you have

a median price point at 3155 but you're

having closed sales for a million doll

properties $800,000 properties $700,000

properties that are really exceeding

previous years that's going to drive

your average to be much much much higher

than than the median would be and so

that's exactly what's happening here now

if you're looking at the chart and and

perhaps you processed it as you were

hearing the numbers without looking at

it you're like well well the number of

units was way higher for the you know

250 350 and 35500 etc etc and that's

accurate and that's why the median is

lower right because the median looks at

the middle number and so the middle

numbers are flooded by this 250 to 500

price point and that's why we come up

with the median of 315 whereas the

average is in the 400s so I hope that

makes sense um practically speaking what

does this

mean because some people are are perhaps

lising for the for the Practical

elements of this here's what I would say

um if you're a buyer don't sit on the

sidelines this is not the time to sit on

the sidelines I've already said there's

deals out there right you don't want to

be the guy or the gal that misses out on

the deal when it comes up I have a lot

of closings in the month of December

historically a lot of closings and a lot

of buyers that find properties in the

month of December don't miss out if you

miss out you're you're just hurting

yourself right there's no point and and

getting discouraged and saying you know

what I'm done I'm just going to wait

until the new year no no no don't wait

until the new year there are deals to be

done there are buyers there are other

buyers that are sitting out the market

right now and you can take their place

you can step in and be the buyer that

they are not you can be better than them

and listen I'm available I'm available

for you guys I will work through the

month of December I've got all sorts of

different holiday things going on I'm

still going to be working for you guys

for all of my clients um so keep that in

mind if you're a seller you need to sit

tight right I'm I'm encouraging I'm

coaching my Sellers and I've got all of

my sellers right now under contract

except for one um and that one's just

kind of an odd situation um but I'm

telling my sellers you need to sit tight

right now because the market is is odd

again we still have the Helen effect

kind of mudding the waters uh no pun

intended um we still have the post

elction and aftermath we still have

rates going up and down we've got all

sorts of things and I don't think that

now is the time to overreact and do

massive price drops um unless you're

unless you're just not getting any

unless you know you're not getting any

showings and you're getting showing to

people are saying oh this home is just

way overpriced listen I've coached

multiple clients the past couple of

months to sit tight let the market come

to you and guess what it's worked out

for every single one of them I had a

property I just got under contract today

as I'm recording this just got under

contract a few hours ago it it after I

listed it it sat on the market for

several weeks with zero showings I

reached out to my clients and I told

them don't worry about it you don't need

to you don't need to panic it's

discouraging that there's no showings

but everyone's experiencing this right

now well guess what after several weeks

all of a sudden people start showing the

house you know sometimes all that needs

to happen is a little shift in inventory

a few homes you know if if you're if

you've ever bought real estate um during

a time when there's a lot of inventory

you know what this looks like you might

have you know uh there might be three or

four homes that you're interested in and

you've got them prioritized A B C D um

you make a play for a first that goes

under contract you make a play for B

that goes under contract then you go to

c and d and sometimes uh your home if

you're a seller is the C or D option for

a buyer and you just need to wait for

for options A and B to go away before

your home then becomes the new A or B

option uh for a

buyer so these are the sorts of

conversations that I'm having and I

found it very interesting um the the one

listing that I don't have under contract

right now has only had a handful of

showings and so I decided uh the other

week I was like you know what I'm going

to do an open house well it's kind of

gutsy doing an open house right before

Thanksgiving uh but I thought you know

what I'm just going to try if I don't

get anyone to show up for it I'll just

watch football you know I I'll pull up

my computer and I'll just watch football

during the open house no harm no thoul

um well guess what I'd had this home on

the market for several weeks only two

showings I had the open house the open

house was packed packed I had so many

people I couldn't even I couldn't even

talk to all of them which is by the way

not super common right now in this

market right

what did that tell me well I talked to

some of these people some of these uh

people that walk through the open house

and they were all very positive about

the house but everyone's waiting and

they were all waiting until the new year

or some of them had leases that you know

they're waiting to expire all sorts of

different things happening and so that

gave me great feedback that told me okay

it I'll do open houses for every listing

some listings uh it's more appropriate

than for others uh but in this case I

felt like the feedback would be helpful

and it was immensely help f it told me

you know what nobody is overreacting to

to this home to the price of the home

people just need to be it just needs

time right it's at a price point that's

challenging for some people right now

and it's one of those situations where

we just need to hold tight unless the

seller is you know at a point where they

just aggressively need to sell the home

and at that point you can Tinker with

the price point and try to make it more

attractive in that

way but that's not what we're doing at

this time because because I just

communicated with a bunch of people at

an open house that told me they thought

it was priced correctly they like the

house they thought it was a really great

house they're just not ready yet and

once you get that feedback consistently

that tells you something that tells you

you know what if you don't have to panic

Don't Panic just let things ride and let

the market come to you uh so that's by

advice if you're if you're a seller

right now or if you're a buyer um

hopefully that's helpful and hopefully

you enjoyed this podcast please like

rate review subscribe to it please reach

out to me if you need a realtor in the

Greenville area please contact Piper

Insurance Group all of our contact

information is in the show notes contact

them if you need a free quote today

actually even if you don't think you

need it you need it so contact them

today for a free quote thank you guys

for listening hope you had a great

Thanksgiving by the way I jumped right

past that hope it was great I had a good

one um and I've got a lot of great

content planned for the end of the year

so please stay tuned and we will talk

again next time