hello everyone and welcome to another

episode of selling Greenville your

favorite real estate podcast here in

Greenville South Carolina I'm your host

as always Stan mun and uh I just want to

wish you guys a Merry Christmas as you

can see if you're watching on YouTube

I've got a festive background I've got

little Christmas flannel uh shirt thing

going on here so uh hopefully you guys

are enjoying that so Merry Christmas

this will I'm recording this on

Christmas Eve um it will actually uh go

out to the public on Christmas day um

and uh so I hope you guys have a merry

Christmas to my Jewish listeners happy

Hanukkah to you as well and um and uh

this I guess we'll have one more episode

before the end of uh of the year right

or well I guess depending on when you

listen to it I should probably say happy

new year as well so we'll just go ahead

and get that out of the way uh but thank

you guys for listening um I'm a realtor

here in Greenville South Carolina my

contact information is in the show notes

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things um so it's the end of the year

basically right um and the end of the

year I always have a lot of episodes

where we're kind of reflecting back on

the end of the year looking forward to

the next year and today we're going to

be looking at my bold predictions that I

made at the end of last year for

2024 and seeing how I did how I didn't

how well I didn't do um and just kind of

talking through that uh why things did

or didn't turn out the way I thought

they would so I'm just going to run

through this straight from the top my

first bold prediction was that the FED

would begin cutting rates in the second

quarter of

2024 um now when I say rates I don't

mean mortgage rates I mean the FED funds

rate which can indirectly impact

mortgage rates that's something uh we

will come back to mortgage rates here in

a little bit um but the FED funds rate

was it was a highly debated topic

because they hadn't cut rates since the

pandemic um rates had you know they'

kept increasing rates and this was a

massive question tons of economists were

debating it there's a lot of uh

discussion a lot of disagreement but we

finally got our answer in September when

the FED finally started cutting rates uh

some people thought there would be no

rate Cuts some people thought there

would be rate increases this year uh so

I was correct about them cutting rates

but I was off by a quarter I said the

second quarter September is in the third

quarter so I didn't quite uh have it

right there I was off by one quarter

frustrating but uh but it is what it is

um and so since then they've lowered the

FED funds rate twice since then for a

total of three rate Cuts this year now

this is important for for a couple of

reasons one is that as I've already said

the FED funds rate does uh impact

borrowing rates on a meta level which

can impact more mortgage rates

indirectly okay they don't impact

mortgage rates directly we need to be

very clear about this the FED is not

directly pulling those strings it's

actually more the bond market that does

that but the bond market is looking at

the at what the Federal Reserve is doing

uh basically to decide what they're

going to do and so what the FED does can

um can influence mortgage rates and it

and what they do does influence mortgage

rates albeit indirectly um the second

thing is that what the FED does with

their rates tell us what they think

about the state of the economy and so

they aren't going to uh drop rates

dramatically unless they perceive that

the economy is in freef Fall which

obviously we don't want that to happen

um and uh right now obviously they don't

think that's the case they're being very

conservative um they've even lowered

their projections for rate cuts for uh

for

2025 so uh so right now the FED thinks

that our economy is doing okay that it

doesn't need any stimulus by means of uh

of rate cuts and they're hoping that the

bond market does a lot of the heavy

lifting for them which currently it

is my number two prediction so oh so

yeah so I was I was I I was pretty much

wrong right with that prediction but I

got it right that they they did uh start

making Cuts this year number two I said

that there will be no recession in 2024

and that we will achieve the quote

unquote soft Landing um and I think that

we can say I got this one right right no

by every metric no recession happened in

2024 you might be able to debate whether

we whether it was a soft Landing or a no

Landing was was uh a phrase that some

people use I I think that semantics um I

think I think I got it right uh on this

uh on this front um now we did come

close right we had to to a recession we

had uh various metrics that made it seem

like maybe recession was near and we

talked about this on the show we had the

yield curve uh the 210 yield curve un

inverting then rein verting again we had

the Sam

sahm rule triggered that's another

recession indicator um we've had

multiple different recession indicators

we've had sticky inflation uh

underwhelming economic numbers at

various times all sorts of things but

overall the economy has weathered the

storm and we did not get the recession

that we feared in 2024 we haven't had

the consecutive uh multiple consecutive

uh quarters of uh negative GDP growth

all of that sort of stuff um so we we

averted the worst for 2024 now is that

did we just Kick the Can to 2025 well

that remains to be

seen um but in general the economy did

not go into a recession 2024 now the

housing market as we've said on this uh

show many times has been in a recession

uh for quite some time basically the

housing market has taken medicine for

the entire economy is the way I see it

um had the housing market continued at

the blistering Pace it was during covid

that would have absolutely wrecked

inflation for the rest of the economy uh

so uh so that that's a good thing not

great for me being a real estate person

uh but good for the overall

economy uh my number three prediction

was that mortgage rates would spend the

entire year in the sixes and that the

average for the year would be the high

sixes when it was all said and done this

is another one where I was half right

okay per mortgage News Daily a mortgage

aggregator whenever I talk about

mortgage rates I'm always talking about

uh the aggregate mortgage news daily

rate right for the 30-year fixed rate

mortgage because I don't know what your

what uh this person or that person what

kind of a mortgage they could could get

um so I we're talking about aggregate

data here uh but per mortgage News Daily

the average for the year did end up

being in the high sixes for the 30-year

fixed rate mortgage but rates in both

the second quarter and the fourth

quarter ended up in the seven so we

didn't spend the entire year in the

sixes we had two quarters in the sevens

um and that might be surprising right if

you've not been tracking this uh

particularly the fourth quarter right

because I just said that the Federal

Reserve started reducing the FED funds

rate uh pretty heavily in the third

quarter and into the fourth quarter

they've had now uh 75 basis points of

reductions but what we've seen recently

is the markets had actually priced in

lower inflation a worse

economy and as a result even more rate

Cuts than what the FED has done and or

is projecting to do and as a result

markets have been driving mortgage rates

higher mortgage rates as of today they

are higher than they were a year ago so

not good not good for those wanting to

buy a house um and so even as the fund

fed funds rate has gone lower because

the bond market more so than the FED

funds rate determines what happens in

mortgages we've seen mortgages go up now

again it's a slow dance between all

three of these things there a slow dance

between the Federal Reserve not just the

FED funds rate but also the statements

that the FED is making sways the market

so there's a slow dance with that and

the bond market and the 30-year fixed

rate mortgage they all kind of do this

little dance

together and um the the end result year

of that dance has been that uh the bond

market got started dancing ahead of the

Federal Reserve and realized oh shoot we

need to slow down a little bit and that

slow down what that's an analogy that

I'm making right it's a metaphor uh but

what that looked like is that now uh

basically people have laid off of of

bonds now we're seeing treasury yields

go up that then causes uh the 30 fixed

rate mortgage to increase which is

exactly what has happened uh in recent

months uh number four here inventory

will remain below pre-pandemic levels

for the entire year this one I got

destroyed on I was way off on this

prediction um and um you know it it's

it's a little bit surprising right

because demand in Greenville is stronger

than in many areas actually uh the

National Association real realter just

uh pegged Greenville Spartenburg as or

Greenville Anderson as one of the top

emerging markets for 2025 I think we've

already emerged I don't really think

we're an Emerging Market at this point

um but um but regardless we had 22

people per day moved to Greenville from

outside of the area um and so so there

is demand uh but in spite of that

there's been more Supply entering than

demand and so basically since the summer

inventory has been comparable to

pre-pandemic levels and currently it's

sitting at 2015 levels the market was

not very hot in 2015 right it was a very

very well it was a pretty balanced

Market in 2015 it was it was not quite a

sell's market not quite a buyer Market

in my opinion um and uh and that's where

inventory sits right now so we did not

see inventory remain below prepandemic

levels for the entire year not even

close number five I said the pending

sales for the first quar would be down

year onye and would increase uh probably

slightly for the remaining three

quarters I was wrong on this one but in

a different direction than you would

have thought and surprisingly pending

sales were up for all four quarters now

it shouldn't have been I guess all that

surprising there were reasons why I

thought uh that there would be uh

basically a a down first quarter and

then an increase in the in the uh other

three4

um but long story short um pendings were

up for all four quarters because 2023

pendings were really low right and so

what's happened the market has adjusted

where more people are putting in offers

but a lot more contracts are falling

through so that's what happens pending

sales are not closed sales pending sales

are homes that have gone under contract

a lot of those contracts are in fact

falling through um and we you know we

had some really strong months in in for

pending sales year onye in

2024 um and and so once we get the final

end of year data I'm thinking pendings

for 2024 will probably end up being

about 5% higher than they were in

2023 um which again 2023 was bad for

pending sales so it's not shocking but

what is shocking is that we had a

hurricane that really crippled real

estate for at least a month if not two

months um and that didn't result in in

US losing steam in September and losing

steam in October and November in terms

of of pendings um and so uh people you

know like in Co people push through they

didn't let that impact their home buying

or home selling decisions and for the

most part it seems like uh hurricane

Helen uh people responded in the same

way that just it's business as usual

number six I said days on Market won't

go above 60 for the entire year and even

though last month I thought that maybe

the impacts of hurricane Helen might

cause days on Market to exceed 60 that

never happened I don't think it's going

to happen for this month either for the

month of December even though we don't

have the data yet um but the closest we

came was 57 days on Market in February

we got up to 54 days on Market in

October but then it came back down to 52

in November I don't see December

exceeding 60 so um it looks like we're

and going to have another years and I

was right on this prediction with low

days on Market um 60 is still

historically um a to to not exceed 60 to

be there in the low 50s it's still a

historically low number for us so we'll

see um how that continues to track

number

seven the number of single family

closings will rise slightly for 2024

versus 2023 between 0 to 3% % uh while

many experts expect National declines

this one is going to be a photo finish

okay per the multiple listing service

which sometimes the MLS data is

different than the GJ data so I'm not

exactly sure why that is but I don't

have the gjr data on this yet but I do

have the MLS data so we'll just refer to

that so per the multiple listing service

2023 had

1,538 38

closings in

2023 um the way I tracked that was just

looking at just basically not just

filtering multiple listing service by

single family also included condos town

homes of the other category in there but

I didn't include any multif family um in

that category just to be clear uh no

land was included no commercial none of

that was included in there so

1,500 308 uh for 2023 as of today

Christmas Eve we have one week left uh

and not too many business days left in

that one week we're sitting at 1,000

sorry

14,820 so we're about five not quite

500 uh closings off um

and I don't think we're going to get

there I think we're going to have a it

was going to be a very slight like

basically a 1% uh decrease year on-ear

uh for single family

closings and um you know it it I will

say it's possible it there it's not

completely outside the realm of

possibility that we could just have this

glut of closings come in before the end

of the year but that would be a lot

right that would be for us to to squeeze

in 500 closings in the greater

Greenville Market uh within the next

week and with all these holidays I'm

skeptical so I think I'm going to end up

being wrong in this one I think it's

going to end up being a a little bit

below uh zero uh 0% increase it's going

to be a slight decrease um and so uh so

that's something that that's interesting

uh from from a closing standpoint

particularly as I said with pending

sales being strong um I said that multi

family sales in Greenville multiple

listing service will exceed 100 for the

first time and this is going to be

another photo finish however I think

this one might actually get there okay

we currently have had

97 multif family closings in the

multiple listing service um so we need

basically three or depending on how you

you interpret uh my prediction three or

four it's very possible right people

like to get those multif family closings

in before the end of the year um would

not be shocked if if we saw something

you know squeeze through here um a few

of these to to push that number above

100 before the end of the year um now

why was I right or close to being right

on this one um really we're just seeing

a lot more multif family construction

with the small multif family right when

some people think different things when

they think multif family in the multiple

listing service multif family is almost

always small multi family duplexes

triplexes quads uh smaller you know

apartment buildings things like that

we're not we don't see a lot of you know

200 unit complexes show up in in the MLS

that almost never happens and there's a

lot of good reasons for that um but

we're starting to see you know the past

few years we've seen a lot of people a

lot of Builders building these duplexes

and and triplexes and quadruplexes

trying to solve the missing middle

housing problem that we have basically

throughout the entire country um and as

a result we're having more closings uh

come through even in this higher rate

environment where the multif Family

Properties don't pencil uh their numbers

as well still seeing uh good numbers

there number nine foreclosures and

foreclosure sales for single family will

increase slightly but remain well below

pre-pandemic Norms that was a prediction

that I had um and um I I pretty much

nailed this one I could show you guys

data um if you know charts and whatnot

I'm not going to for the time being

because quite frankly it's Christmas Eve

I don't want to I need to wrap up the

show um but um basically foreclosures

have ticked up just a little bit in 2024

but they're still near all-time lows

both nationally and in Greenville we've

seen some foreclosures come on on the

multiple listing service in Greenville

um but nothing to move the needle much

right and there's so much competition on

them you know this is not you know I was

looking at homes in in 2008 2009 2010

trying to become a first-time home buyer

and you could go on like Hud's website

there'd be 70 homes on there just

sitting you know that have been just

sitting on there for 200 300 days um now

that's just not the case there's not a

lot of foreclosures happening right

now and um they're well below

pre-pandemic Norms so I nailed that

prediction uh 10 and the last one here I

said the medium price uh per the gjr

market stats Will Rise by 3 to 6% for

the entire year although we may see some

negative month- on-month prints this was

looking pretty good until the past three

months derailed

it and it's looking like prices will end

up closer to about a 1% rise for the

year rather than the 3 to 6% that I uh

that I had predicted um a few things

caus this uh one the hurricane resulted

in damaged homes selling more cheaply

I've seen multiple of instances of this

where homes that were listed uh you know

for a more expensive amount they got

storm damage and either they weren't

insured or or the seller decided to

pocket the insurance money and just sell

the home for cheaper seen that multiple

times at this point

um the aforementioned increase in

foreclosures again not a lot of them uh

but every single foreclosure that uh

that sells that's super

cheap that impacts the market right that

impacts these statistics that impacts

the median price and what's happening

there presidential election that

influences people a lot more than you

realize People pump the brakes on buying

homes in presidential election years um

and last but certainly not least perhaps

the the most important thing out of all

was the sudden spike in mortgage rates

the past several months that was really

the final nail in the cofin um we you

know there was not a lot of people that

were predicting that we would see a uh

fourth quarter spike in mortgage rates

but again the presidential election had

a lot to do that and then the Federal

Reserve the some of the things that

they've said some of the signals that

they put out there have resulted in that

and so even though I don't have the

numbers on this um it does look like my

median price forecast will end up being

incorrect um but um that's good news if

you're a buyer right that means that

housing hasn't spiraled uh even more

unaffordable uh and more out of control

um but we will uh again see if I make a

prediction about medium prices for 2025

I do intend to have a bold predictions

for 2025 episode coming up here in the

next couple of weeks so I hope you guys

continue to listen hope you guys have

great merry Christmas great happy

holiday season please reach out to me if

you have any uh needs for real estate in

the area my contact information in the

show notes Piper Insurance Group

information in the show notes if you

need to reach out to them for any of

your home Auto or umbrella insurance

needs and we will talk again next time