[00:00:28] Chris Carr: Hello everybody and welcome to Espresso
Martini. Today we have another jam-packed episode. Before we kind
of go into what we're going to be talking about, Matt, how are
you doing?
[00:00:38] Matt Fulton: Oh, you know, you know, I'm trying to
sort of resist the lure of slipping into some, like, twilight
fugue state for a good short while.
[00:00:49] But, um, other than that, I'm good. Chris, how are
you?
[00:00:52] Chris Carr: Well, yeah, I don't know what the word is
to describe it. I'm lucky obviously, cause, uh, I'm this side of
the Atlantic, but watching events kind of going on are quite, uh,
concerning. So I think I'm just in a permanently concerned state
of mind at the moment.
[00:01:06] And just doing my best to stay productive about it
rather than kind of letting it kind of take you off into a
depressive state or something. So I'm just trying my best to look
after my personal health, etc. So yeah, yeah.
[00:01:20] Matt Fulton: Very important. Very important to go
touch grass sometimes.
[00:01:22] Chris Carr: Yeah, indeed, indeed. I had a lovely walk
this morning, actually, before this that really did me a lot of
good.
[00:01:28] So, uh, yeah. So, good advice to everybody, actually.
Just make sure you're looking after yourselves because, uh, you
know, there's no point letting world events make you ill. Uh, it
really isn't worth it. So, uh, you know, so, uh, stay out, uh,
stay healthy out there. So, um, on today's podcast, uh, we will
be looking at how the Potomac air crash shines a light on
doomsday plans.
[00:01:50] So a nice cheery start there. Then we'll be looking at
Trump's planned purge of the FBI. Then we've got Russia
reportedly refusing Assad’s extradition to Syria. And then we'll
be looking at the fears of Iran seeking to build a new nuclear
weapon. So yes, we definitely have a, quite a heavy-going episode
going forward.
[00:02:10] Um, Yeah, so, uh, make sure you get yourself a, uh, a
nice drink. I'm having a nice latte. Um, so yeah, don't
necessarily turn to alcohol, turn to something kind of,
something, whatever your kind of comfort. There is just, there
[00:02:23] Matt Fulton: is just coffee in here. I swear. Yeah.
Espresso Martini 38 (2.25) 2
[00:02:26] Chris Carr: Which is so we'll, we'll move on to the,
uh, the midair collision, um, which was obviously a horrific turn
of events that happened on the, was that the 30th?
[00:02:37] Wasn't it? So it was, uh, it
[00:02:38] Matt Fulton: was about a week ago. Yeah, it was, it
was, it was last Wednesday.
[00:02:42] Chris Carr: Yeah. Yeah. Last Wednesday. So Matt, I'll
hand this one over to you.
[00:02:45] Matt Fulton: Yeah. So, um, there's a really great
article, um, by Joseph Trevithick in the, in the war zone that
details, um, some of the, uh, details behind the. The unit that
was involved in this.
[00:02:55] So, uh, the crew of the U.S. Army Black Hawk, um,
involved in last week's midair collision over the Potomac River
with American Airlines Flight 5342, killing all 67 aboard. Both
aircraft were conducting a training exercise for their unit's
little-known continuity of government mission. Part of the 12th
Aviation Battalion stationed at Fort Belvoir, Virginia, the unit
plays a key role in emergency government evacuation scenarios
tasked with transporting senior officials and lawmakers from
sites like the White House and the Pentagon to secure locations
such as Camp David, Mount Weather, and Raven Rock in the event of
a crisis.
[00:03:30] Uh, this mission is not widely publicized, but remains
a crucial component of national security. Uh, other military
units with COG responsibilities include the U.S. Air Force's 1st
Helicopter Squadron and Marine Helicopter Squadron 1, or HMX-1,
uh, which primarily transports the president, but would also
respond in a crisis.
[00:03:48] Civilian agencies, such as the U.S. Park Police, also
contribute to emergency airlift operations. The incident raises
questions about airspace safety around Washington. One of the
most monitored and restricted flight zones in the country.
Military must now assess the potential changes to training
protocols while ensuring readiness for high risk evacuation
scenarios.
[00:04:07] Chris, what'd you think about this one?
[00:04:08] Chris Carr: Well, God, what a disaster this was. I
mean, like everybody, I was deeply shocked and saddened to hear
about this crash and I could not really think of anything worse
than being moments away from landing and having this happen. You
know, I always, um, Takeoff and landing are probably the most
dangerous phases of flying.
[00:04:26] And, um, so this sort of collision, which is what it
looks like between the, you know, with the military helicopters
are flying into the path of the plane, you know, it was
appalling. Um, so with regards to military helicopters, um, And
there's, uh, basically these kind of training missions are sort
Espresso Martini 38 (2.25) 3
of standard stuff, really, because the helicopter pilots,
especially military ones, need to be able to fly through
controlled airspace.
[00:04:50] You know, it's essential stuff, really, being able to
sort of work with other air traffic, especially, um, if there is
this sort of doomsday scenario. So the thing about this this
morning is, what is the protocol for other aircraft? Should we,
you know, be seven minutes away from a nuclear attack on the, on
the, capital and you've got to get VIPs out, what happens?
[00:05:08] Because there'll be a lot of air traffic kind of
floating about still. Um, do they land? Do they stay as they are?
What do they do? I don't know. But, um, that intrigued me. Um,
but yeah, in the UK we also have like RAF helicopters sort of
doing a similar-ish thing along the River Thames, at least twice
a week.
[00:05:25] They tend to sort of fly through London following the
Thames. Um, and again, those helicopter pilots are training to
fly in controlled airspace because obviously London is controlled
airspace. They tend to do that later in the evening. Um, usually
about 11, 11 PM to sort of 1 AM, which is, I'm assuming when air
traffic is sort of at a lesser level, um, in London.
[00:05:49] So yeah, it's sort of interesting that they do that.
Um, then yeah, I was, that made me wonder about what's the UK's
kind of doomsday scenario. And I couldn't really find much
information about what our actual doomsday scenario is. So I
apologize to listeners because I was hoping to have some sort of,
uh, background on that.
[00:06:06] Better idea of what happens, but, um, what I have
discovered is the Ministry of Defence have a bunker called
PINDAR, P-I-N-D-A-R, which can hold up to 400 personnel and it
provides protection against conventional bombing, sabotage,
biological and chemical attack, flooding, and the effects of
blast radiation and electronic, uh, sorry, and also it protects
against electromagnetic pulses.
[00:06:31] But it will not survive a direct hit or a very near
miss by nuclear weapons. So this bunker has sort of its
limitations. Um, it is directly connected to Downing Street and
the Cabinet Office via special tunnel PINDAR has two floors. The
lower floor contains the Ministry of Defence Joint Operations
Center.
[00:06:51] And then the upper floor consists of gov government
emergency rooms comprising the prime minister, secretary of
state, the cabinet secretary, and some permanent secretaries. Um,
and then you've also got the, an element of the Joint
Intelligence Organisation, and then you've got sort of
telecommunications, uh, center as well, which is, uh, known as C-
O-M-C-E-N, which is Cabinet Office communication center.
[00:07:13] So that's where. In London, should something happen,
most members of, um, of senior, you know, senior political
Espresso Martini 38 (2.25) 4
leadership are going to go in there. Um, so yeah, uh, but with
that terrible accident in D.C., it was 67 people killed. And as I
was saying, it kind of appears the helicopter flew into the path
of the airliner that was landing.
[00:07:33] Obviously while that, how that happened and why that
happened is still being investigated. Um, But from my
understanding, the helicopter pilots were challenged twice and
they took responsibility for something known as visual
separation, which is where they claim they can see where the
aircraft in question is, and they will maintain distance away
from it.
[00:07:53] And it sounds like that they may have got confused
about which aircraft they were looking at. But again, that's
still kind of unconfirmed at this point. The other thing that was
interesting as well, there's been, um, Reports of near misses
before at the airport, uh, Ronald Reagan airport. Um, and so
there's a, there's a helicopter corridor, which is known as route
four.
[00:08:15] It allows helicopters to fly as low as 200 feet in
that corridor. And it's only got, um, kind of a 15-foot kind of
gap between, um, the, the corridor for airplanes. And for
helicopters, which is quite frankly crazy, uh, usually have a few
hundred feet gap. So the way air air control spaces work is, is
basically based on height.
[00:08:41] Um, so you had these sort of areas that you can
operate at certain heights. So slow moving aircraft will be
restricted on how high or low they can go near an airport, but
having, having aircraft flying across what would be a runway, um,
You know, that's a recipe for disaster and sadly that's what's
happened.
[00:08:59] So, yeah, I mean, Matt, uh, obviously I've sort of
taken it a little bit away from what the article's about, but,
uh, what were your thoughts on this, this terrible event?
[00:09:07] Matt Fulton: Well, that's, um, it's really crowded
airspace there along the Potomac. You know, it's, uh, as you
said, you know, DC is one of the most, um, uh, closely controlled
and monitored sections of airspace, um, in the world.
[00:09:20] The whole area around the city, uh. Air traffic's
allowed in to some extent, you know, like commercial aviation
coming into, um, DCA, Reagan National and, um, Dulles, uh, you
have to have a reason to be there. You have to identify yourself
on radio, remain on radio. Um, there are, uh, none of this is, is
classified.
[00:09:39] It's all on, it's, it's accessible to anybody with
Google and enough time on their hands. Um, there's, uh, uh, This,
this army, uh, aviation unit, um, the, the, the battalion, the
12th, um, Aviation Battalion sits under the, uh, Joint Task Force
- National Capital Region, which is itself under US Northern
Espresso Martini 38 (2.25) 5
Command. Um, and that's sort of a joint, um, a joint headquarters
for, uh, with all the service branches.
[00:10:08] So the, um, uh, the Army, the Navy, uh, the Air Force,
the Marines, um, Coast Guard have some presence there too. Um,
and, uh, yeah, there's a few different, um, aviation units around
DC that handle colony of government. So the army is 12th Aviation
Battalion. Um, the, uh, Air Force has the first helicopter
squadron.
[00:10:28] They're at joint base Andrews. Um, uh, customs and
border protection also has some aircraft in, um, Manassas. Uh,
there's a, uh, squadron under, um, NORAD, uh, that is at, uh,
joint base Anacostia bowling, which is right along the Potomac,
essentially like This collision happened like kind of directly in
front of, um, that, that, that base, uh, NORAD has a squadron,
um, there that operates something called the Joint Air Defense,
uh, Operations Center.
[00:10:59] Um, and, uh, they oversee a, uh, uh, collection of,
um, six, uh, air defense batteries that are stationed at, uh,
Different locations in and around D.C. I'm not, I won't say
exactly where they are, um, on the air, uh, when, when we were
walking around D.C. In, in November, I pointed out, um, one of
them to you as we were walking around, and it's, if you didn't
know it was up there as you walk past, you would never know that
it was there, um, that's been present since, uh, shortly after 9
11 was when they put, um, Uh, those in, but, uh, yeah, so this
crew on the, uh, H-60, um, Black Hawk was on a routine, uh,
training exercise at the time the collision, um, it was, as
according to the war zone here, was connected to their continuity
of government mission.
[00:11:51] Um, so that's, I mean, so I guess the sort of normal
side of their mission is to transport VIPs, um, around DC. Uh,
and then on top of that, they had this continuity of government
mission that they, that they trained for. So in the event of some
sort of a crisis, uh, where, um, you know, national leadership,
uh, congressional leadership, federal leadership, military
leadership would have to be evacuated out of DC, um, to places
like, uh, FEMA's Mount Weather that's in Virginia and the Blue
Ridge mountains.
[00:12:23] Um, yeah. The joint staff and the DOD, um, have their
alternate, uh, National Military Command Center, um, and the
emergency operation centers for all the service branches are
Raven Rock. Um, that's near Camp David, just across the state
line in, um, Pennsylvania. There's a few other, uh, smaller
locations dotted in the area around DC.
[00:12:44] Some of them are under commercial cover, supposedly.
Um, But, uh, yeah, when that alert goes out, um, there's a whole
bunch of designated people in government and they train and drill
for this stuff as well. Um, and they know to report to kind of
designated marshaling points, um, all around the city. Uh, such
as the, um.
Espresso Martini 38 (2.25) 6
[00:13:06] The, uh, soccer fields at, uh, American university in,
um, northwest DC and, uh, helicopters going to come and pick them
up and whisk them off to elsewhere. Um, so, you know, these, uh,
it's a very elite, uh, unit, the 12th Aviation Battalion. Um,
And, uh, they train to do these, these, uh, evacuations in a
whole bunch of really, um, you know, nasty conditions.
[00:13:33] If you consider, you know, what, what the situation
might be, if you had to evacuate DC, um, in a hurry, you know,
such as perhaps, uh, uh, evacuating DC while there's a power
outage. You know, so, um, the, the, the crew, um, we know it was
reported by the DOD were wearing night vision goggles, um, at the
time of this, uh, collision.
[00:13:55] I'm not sure if that, um, played any kind of a role.
Um, and to be clear here, you know, uh, NTSB is going to do their
investigation. They're going to figure out what, what happened.
You know, we don't, we don't know what happened. Um, we're not,
we're not pilots. Um, but, uh, Yeah, it's a really, um,
unfortunate thing is the, uh, uh, deadliest, uh, civil aviation
disaster, um, in the U S well, it's the first, it's the first
major one since, uh, 2009.
[00:14:25] Uh, it was a regional commuter jet that crashed in
Buffalo. I think it was weather-related. Um, and then the, before
that, um. This is the deadliest one since, uh, it was another
American Airlines flight that crashed in November 2001, um, after
a departure from, uh, JFK, um, yeah.
[00:14:44] Chris Carr: Yeah, and there was a big one in, in the
80s, uh, there was a big one in the 80s that hit the bridge, uh,
one of the bridges of the Potomac, um.
[00:14:53] Matt Fulton: I think it was a Wilson, uh, or no, the
Memorial Bridge, I think. Yeah, yeah. I believe it was that one,
yeah.
[00:14:59] Chris Carr: Something to do with, um. Came from Miami
or something that flies and I think that's air, Florida.
[00:15:04] Matt Fulton: That's yeah. Yeah, they're defunct now.
But yeah my cousin is a is a commercial pilot and has some
experience Flying for one of the bigger airlines here in the US
flying aircraft about the same size as the CRJ that crashed.
[00:15:22] So I, um, uh, you know, we're not, we're not pilots. I
could kind of know, you know, the military, the cog side of
things, but as far as the civil aviation side of it, I don't, I
don't know. Um, but I, uh, spoke with him yesterday just to pick
his brain a bit, you know, knowing we were going to talk about it
here. Um, just get his, you know, sense of it.
[00:15:42] Uh, he told me a couple of interesting things. Um, So
that corridor that the Black Hawk was in, as you said, it was
following down, um, it's called Route 1, which begins, uh, up
around Langley, Virginia, sort of like right by CIA headquarters,
and then follows the Potomac down south towards D.C., and, uh,
then as you get sort of more into D.
Espresso Martini 38 (2.25) 7
[00:16:05] C. proper, you know, like around the Pentagon, the
Mall, um, the route sort of diverts off, um, From over the
Pentagon from, from, from over the Potomac, um, around the title
basin, like where the Jefferson, uh, memorial is, and it comes
around like, it's called the Washington channel right there. So
it de conflicts, um, away from the runways where DCA is right
there where you have, you know, aircraft coming in and, and
taking off and landing, um, the ceiling there in that area, uh,
the, the, you know, altitude ceiling is, um, is, is 200 feet.
[00:16:39] Um, it was reported, uh, that. You know, right now
after this crash that, um, the helicopter was supposedly around
300 feet.
[00:16:46] Yeah.
[00:16:48] Matt Fulton: And I, we were, we were talking about
that and he said, you know, as far as that aviation is, is, as
far as that, um, altitude is, is, is concerned, um, under no
circumstances, no matter how.
[00:17:00] No matter what your your altitude is, matter how low
you are, um, you would never cross in front of a, uh, an
airliner, you know, coming, descending airliner coming in on on
final approach. Um, so it seems like and again, I'm not, I'm not
casting blame on anybody. We don't we don't know, but it, um, it
seems like listening to the, uh, air traffic controllers, um,
that, uh, this, uh, You know, Hilo was coming in the CRJ, the
regional jet was coming in from, from, from the other location.
[00:17:33] Um, and, uh, the Black Hawk pilot, you know, uh, was
talking with the controller and the controller said, you know,
Hey, do you see that CRJ right there? Um, you know, pass behind
it. And the pilot said, okay, you know, we'll go, we'll do. Um,
so that. Should clear the, the, the controller, um, you know, the
tower and, you know, there's on top of that, there's a, uh, it's
been a chronic, um, issue here in the FAA, uh, for years of, um,
air traffic controllers being, um, short staffed, uh, There was,
they were down one staff in the tower at the time of the crash.
[00:18:12] Um, but like my cousin said, I mean, yeah, they were
down one person, but you know, each of them were doing jobs for
like, you know, three or four people. Um, and you really wake one
of the hardest jobs in the world.
[00:18:23] Um,
[00:18:24] Matt Fulton: but it, it, it, Seems like at that time
that, um, you know, when the controller says, do you see that,
that CRJ there passed behind it?
[00:18:32] And the pilot said, yes. Um, there was another
aircraft approaching into the runway one, which is a bit farther
South along the river. Um, and it's, it's possible that the pilot
said yes, looking at that next aircraft and didn't see, didn't
see the CRJ coming in a lot, um, closer. Uh, The other thing to
consider is, so the, um, the TCAS system on the, um, CRJ, the,
uh, traffic and collision avoidance system, right?
Espresso Martini 38 (2.25) 8
[00:19:05] Um, it's an automated system. And, uh, he was saying,
my cousin saying like that, that system has saved his life a
couple times. And, um, no matter what altitude you're at, you
know, like your stuff at like under a thousand feet, it, you
know, doesn't respond quite as well. He says, no, no matter what
altitude you're at.
[00:19:20] Um, You know, it should have been squawking in that
cockpit of that airliner saying, you know, "Climb, climb, climb."
Um, so big open question for him. He told me was, you know, what
happened with that, with that TCAS system was active. Did it, you
know, um, and that's something, you know, again, that we'll, um,
get the answer to the other question that I had was with the
night vision goggles that the crew on the
[00:19:44] Black Hawk
[00:19:47] wearing.
[00:19:47] Well, that's the thing. Um, I don't know if there's
any, if there's any, any, any of you folks listening who may
perhaps have an army aviation background or would know the answer
to this. I would, I would love to hear, um, what you guys think
is a, is it standard procedure For, um, a crew to wear night
vision goggles at night in a non combat setting over like, you
know, DC where the whole city's like lit up, you know?
[00:20:16] Um, does that, uh, like you said, with your peripheral
vision, with, uh, with the visibility of all that, you know, kind
of ambient light and the regular light that's on the ground
coming up in your face, does that, does that have any, you know,
um, Harmful impact on your, on your visibility. And so where is
it? So, yeah, my, my question there is, is it a standard
procedure for the Black Hawk pilots to wear night vision goggles
at any time when they're flying at night?
[00:20:44] Or was that something specifically because they were
doing this Continuity of government training exercise when you
would be in, you would be, you know, training for a situation
such as like, um, DC had no power and all the lights were out,
right? Um, that's something that's, that's an open question I
have.
[00:20:59] I don't, I don't know the answer to that.
[00:21:01] Chris Carr: Well, also in that doomsday scenario, um,
you know, if it is rockets coming in, DC would still technically
be operating as per normal until the impact. So they would have
to fly through air traffic and through dazzling lights, et
cetera, with night vision goggles.
[00:21:17] Matt Fulton: Yeah. Yeah. I mean, there's a, there's a
bunch of different questions that you could ask about, about the
scenario. I mean, those were the two things from my conversation
with him yesterday. Those were the two kind of questions that
stuck out for him. You know, um, the, the TCAS system, what was
up with that? Um, and then where's the, was the night vision
goggles, some sort of a detrimental effect there.
Espresso Martini 38 (2.25) 9
[00:21:39] I mean, it's all, Anytime one of these accidents
happen, and they still are exceedingly rare. Yes. If you consider
the sheer number of flights that are up every single day, not
just in the U.S., but all over the world. And like, the
overwhelming majority of them, almost always, you know, take off
and land and get to where they're supposed to go without any
issues.
[00:22:00] You know, it's a miracle that it's as safe and as, you
know, um, uneventful as it often is. Yeah,
[00:22:08] so it stays that way, yeah.
[00:22:09] Matt Fulton: Yeah, when it. Yeah. And, uh, you know,
when, when one of these accidents happened, it's almost always
some kind of a domino effect, you know, it's like a, it's a
couple of things that go wrong a certain way.
[00:22:23] And that leads to some kind of a catastrophic outcome,
you know? And so like when for a commercial airline pilot, you
know, they kind of drill into you and it, it's definitely true
with these, you know, army Black Hawk pilots too, that, you know,
when you. For the airline piles, when you leave your hotel and
you're about to, you know, go to this flight, you have a very
kind of set procedure routine of what you're supposed to do.
[00:22:44] And if anything, any little thing in that chain
deviates from that standard procedure, stop, fix it, consider
what you're doing. Um, and that's, uh, That's how you get home at
the end of the day. And, uh, so we'll, we'll, we'll find out
what, what happened here.
[00:23:00] Chris Carr: Yeah. I mean, as to your thoughts on
aviation being safe, I mean, just put it into perspective, more
people die in road accidents every year than probably in the
whole of aviation, um, you know, the only.
[00:23:11] The only thing of aviation, obviously, is more
dramatic and more people die in a single moment and there's
catastrophe, but um, but uh, yeah, generally more people die per
year on the cars and, and, and driving is much less regulated to,
uh, in comparison to aviation. So, I mean, aviation, you have an
engineer check the plane before it goes, you've got air traffic
control helping you.
[00:23:31] Gotten heavily trained pilots who have medicals every,
I think they have one every year, don't they? Every five years to
check their health. Um, maybe if we did that more for drivers,
uh, we might have less accidents on the road, but there we go.
Well, thank you for bringing that one up. I mean, it was a
horrendous event that we saw last week and, um, you know, I did
want to have a brief chat about it and I'm glad we have had an
opportunity to do that.
[00:23:55] Um, cause it was just, yeah, it was terrible. It
really was. Um, and. You know, my, my thoughts really go out to
the families of everybody involved. And there was a video of one
of the, um, air stewards and, um, you know, he seemed like a
Espresso Martini 38 (2.25) 1 0
really positive guy who was always trying to make passengers
feel, feel at their best when they, before they left the plane.
[00:24:16] And, you know, he's one of the many people who were
tragically killed that day. So, uh, yeah, yeah. Terrible events.
And, uh, may it always be a very rare occurrence when something
like this happens. Well, let's move on to, um, our next story.
It's all about, um, FBI agents are stunned by the scale of the
expected Trump purge.
[00:24:36] And this is by Shane Harris, who's a friend of the
podcast, writing for The Atlantic. Yeah. So just a quick summary.
So President Trump is expected to fire potentially hundreds of
FBI agents and officials in investigations led, that led to
criminal charges against him, including those who worked on the
classified documents case.
[00:24:54] David Sundberg, head of the FBI's Washington Field
Office, is among those set to be dismissed, raising concerns
about the impact on national security and counterintelligence
cases. Trump's administration is reviewing FBI personnel records
to identify and potentially dismiss agents involved in
investigating and prosecuting those responsible for the January 6
Capitol attack.
[00:25:17] No previous president has enacted such a large-scale
purge of the FBI. While Trump's retribution was expected,
officials are shocked by its scale, and legal challenges are
likely due to civil protections. Trump's nominee for the FBI
Director, Kash Patel, and his nominee for Attorney General, Pam
Bondi, had assured lawmakers that political retribution against
law enforcement officials would not occur, contradicting the
reported mass firing.
[00:25:46] This has obviously been, I think, one of the big
stories of this week, um, with regards to, uh, yeah, law
enforcement. What are your thoughts on all of this?
[00:25:54] Matt Fulton: Yeah. So just to underscore here, this is
a very fast-moving, fluid situation. We're recording this on
Thursday the 6th. This'll be out the following Saturday.
[00:26:04] So by the time, you know, this airs. Who knows? Um,
Pam Bondi was, uh, confirmed by the Senate and, and, um, took
her, took her oath, was sworn in as Attorney General, um, last
night, I, I believe. Um, so she's in place now. Um, yesterday
though, on Wednesday, uh, it, it, The acting attorney general,
the, I'm sorry, the acting deputy, uh, uh, attorney general, the
acting DAG, uh, Emile Bove, uh, sent a message to the Bureau's
workforce, uh, and said, "Let me be clear, no FBI employee
simply, uh, who simply followed orders and carried out their
duties in an ethical manner with respect to January 6th, uh,
investigations is at risk of termination or other penalties." And
later goes on that, "only those who acted with corrupt or
partisan intent who blatantly defied orders or from department
leadership or who exercised discretion in weaponizing the FBI."
Espresso Martini 38 (2.25) 1 1
[00:26:59] So, make of that what you will.
[00:27:01] Chris Carr: They're open to interpretation that, but
yeah.
[00:27:03] Matt Fulton: Yes. Yes. That's, that's sort of where I
was going. Um, there's no reason to take them at their word. Um,
but you know, this all, I think hinges on, um, you know, what,
what they mean by an ethical manner and a corrupt partisan
intent. Um, I'm not sure right now we're all operating with the
same definition.
[00:27:22] Um, Of those things, uh, I've been sort of surprised,
um, happily surprised these days, which doesn't happen often, um,
the kind of pushback a bit, uh, you know, sort of quiet,
dignified, bureaucratic ish resistance, um, You That sort of,
we're seeing from within the bureau, from the, um, agents
association, uh, sort of like, you're like, you know, uh,
employees union, um, and the acting leadership, uh, put in place
after the, um, inauguration.
[00:27:54] Uh, so right now the, um, acting director is, uh,
Brian Driscoll. Um, he was only appointed, uh, uh, SAC or a
special agent in charge of the Newark Field Office in, um, New
Jersey, uh, in the middle of January. I think it was one of the
last things that Christopher Ray did before he, um, before he,
uh, Step down. Um, so he was, you know, named by the incoming
administration as a acting director.
[00:28:18] Um, he's really kind of placed himself, uh, in the
line of fire between the White House and the DOJ and his
workforce. Um, there's been a lot of, uh, memos going back and
forth between the Hoover building and main justice, uh, across
the street. And, um, Driscoll's kind of, you know, forwarding it
to the staff and saying, here's what they're saying, you know, be
aware, take care of yourself, you know, um, we'll see.
[00:28:46] I mean, Driscoll, I, as. I'm gonna say 99. 9 percent
of the people in the country hadn't heard of him until two weeks
ago, um, but, uh, before he was named, um, SAC in, uh, Newark, he
was, uh, he was head of the tactical operations section, I
believe, in, um, uh, Quantico, which also controls the Hostage
Rescue Team, goes by the, goes by the name, uh, the Drizz, This
is as his friends call him.
[00:29:12] Um, but yeah, and that in the two weeks that I've
known who he is, he's, uh, earned my, um, utmost respect. I'm
honestly surprised he's still where he is, you know, acting
director is one of those things. It's like, you know, okay, bye.
You know, if you give me any kind of, you know, pushback
whatsoever. Um, so. As of recently, I think it was earlier this
week.
[00:29:35] Um, uh, uh, the bureau did hand over, uh, details of
5,000 employees. Connected to January six, Uh, connected to the
January six, um, Uh, investigations, Uh, were submitted to the
white house, Um, including ID numbers, job titles and rolls in
Espresso Martini 38 (2.25) 1 2
the en rolls in the, uh, investigations, but not names. Um, to
the Bureau with that in perspective, of the Bureau has 13, 000
agents and 38, 000.
[00:30:02] Total employees. Um, so I, I don't know. I mean, FBI
agents don't get to pick what, what cases they're on. Um, again,
I go back to what are the acting DAGs say, uh, you know, they're
not going to come after, they're only, they're not coming after
people with, who acted in an ethical manner, only those with
corrupt or partisan intent.
[00:30:23] Again, I really don't know that we all have the same
definitions of those two things right now. Um, However, it kind
of seems an obvious point to make, and sorry if this sounds too
partisan to some, but you cannot fire 5,000 people across the FBI
without inviting catastrophic consequences for our national
security.
[00:30:44] Chris Carr: Well, yeah, this is it. I mean, my first
question has been, how does this impact the important work of the
FBI, which is counterterrorism, counterintelligence, organized
crime, and so on. This is hugely disruptive, hugely. It's,
[00:30:56] Matt Fulton: it's more than that. It's, it's, it's.
It's fraud, it's white collar crime, it's serial killers, it's
people who commit all kinds of horrific abuses against children,
it's, as you said, it's terrorist groups, it's foreign spies,
it's, um, they, uh, it's weapons of mass destruction that they,
uh, protect against, their use within the United States.
[00:31:20] This is serious shit. It is. Deeply, deeply serious
shit.
[00:31:24] Chris Carr: Yeah. You can't get more serious than
this. I mean, I just heard yesterday's reports. There was an FBI
agent who was working on identifying the bodies at the Potomac
crash. Yeah. And they were pulled away and called back to the
office so they could fill in one of these questionnaires
regarding, uh, whether they'd been involved in the January 6th
investigation.
[00:31:40] Matt Fulton: Right. That's where, that's what the
priority is right now.
[00:31:42] Chris Carr: Yeah, he's unbelievable. Um, so, you know,
and I think it's pretty appalling that this administration are
playing politics with the FBI and the Justice Department in the
way they are. Now, um, yesterday I was watching, um, have you
heard of Dog Shirt TV on YouTube?
[00:31:59] It's Benjamin Wittes new, uh, channel. Um, I think
it's the same channel was in lieu of fun, but it's been renamed
dog shirt TV.
[00:32:08] Matt Fulton: I was unaware that he had that. No.
[00:32:09] Chris Carr: Yeah. So every morning he now runs, uh, an
episode. So I think, um, Yeah, I think it would have aired by
now. But anyway, I happened to be watching it yesterday and Shane
Espresso Martini 38 (2.25) 1 3
Harris popped up I was like, oh my goodness and he was talking a
little bit about this and some interesting stuff came up So Shane
mentioned yesterday That at the CIA, they've just had a similar
fork in the road memo, which is the type of memo It was sent to
the FBI And the CIA got one too.
[00:32:33] Yeah, and it's been offering employees the opportunity
to leave with a buyout. Now it's not clear, it's a shame saying
it's not clear if there's an actual inventory going on with this,
um, with, you know, tracking who is leaving. You know, are there
employees who the CIA don't want to retire? Uh, is anybody
keeping track of that?
[00:32:54] It doesn't appear to be that anybody is. And he was
saying it seems a bit like a sledgehammer approach to downsizing
the workforce without care of how it affects the mission of the
CIA and the FBI. He believes the objective is to give people who
don't want to work under Trump the opportunity to leave.
[00:33:12] The goal would then, he believes, be then to replace
those people with new people who are more ideologically aligned
with the Trump administration. Shane thinks this order is all
designed to facilitate this. He also said that the, the CIA and
FBI have been asked to identify employees on a probationary
period, possibly to remove them as well.
[00:33:32] Shane believes the Trump administration largely
believes anyone who joined the CIA or FBI in the last four years
did so for pro-Biden ideological reasons. So he is saying he
believes the Trump administration sees anybody who joined the FBI
or CIA in the last four years did it because they're pro-Biden.
[00:33:51] Matt Fulton: Shane. says that Shane believes that the
Trump administration believes that anyone who joined these
agencies in the last four years did it because they're pro-Biden.
[00:33:59] Chris Carr: Correct.
[00:34:00] Matt Fulton: Okay.
[00:34:01] Chris Carr: And Shane feels the Trump administration
doesn't understand the culture of these agencies that they're
trying to gut.
[00:34:06] Thinking that people who joined, people only joined
for ideological reasons, and not understanding that these
organizations are mission-driven organizations and attract people
who are interested in that mission. And, um, so yeah, so Shane
sees this action as sort of short-sighted and malicious and
driven by hostility towards these organizations.
[00:34:28] People at the CIA are currently afraid and nervous and
they're looking at what's happening with the FBI and wondering if
this is in store for them. And this, this sort of culture of
anxiety and nervousness is a sort of obviously a by-product of
that. Trump's actions, and it's unclear whether that is part of
the point of them.
Espresso Martini 38 (2.25) 1 4
[00:34:47] Um, so yeah, uh, and then away from Shane, uh, I saw
this morning, uh, just as I woke up this morning, that there are
reports of a memo the CIA sent to the White House. It has a list
of probationary employees at the CIA. Yeah. And, um, Apparently
it's now largely seen as a huge counterintelligence risk because
this list has names on it, apparently, and foreign adversaries
would love to get their hands on it.
[00:35:10] Matt Fulton: I had some, I had some words about this
on, on, on blue sky last night. Yeah. Um, yeah. So back to the,
back to the, the, the fork emails, you know, the, the buyout
offers, so to speak, I say in quotes. Um, so we have some.
Numbers floating around about how that's going. And again, just
as a preface, none of this is confirmed and, you know, um, any
kind of official numbers coming out of OPM or the white house
right now, of course, or, you know, greatly kind of conflicted
and colored every reason to assume that, um, but the number that
was sort of.
[00:35:45] Floating around that. I saw people who have taken the
buyout offers. And it's basically like, you know, if you reply to
this, it's the same, it's the same damn thing that happened to
Twitter. Like it's the same damn playbook. Um, you know, you
reply to this email, uh, resign and you get permission to kind
of, you know, take like administrative leave, uh, through
September.
[00:36:06] You still get your paycheck or whatever. And then, you
know, you're just, you're just gone. Right. Um, So far, it's
thought the number that's floating around is 20,000 people that
have taken that buyout offer, which is 1 percent of the federal
workforce. To put that in perspective, apparently, kind of
regular turnover, like the churn of the federal workforce
normally per month,
[00:36:29] Chris Carr: Hmmm
[00:36:29] Matt Fulton: about 6,000 people, right?
[00:36:32] These are the entire federal government. Huge. Right.
All over the country. Um, so in perspective, I think 20,000, as
opposed to 6,000. Right now, I think, is not, I, I, I, I honestly
think that's a, that's a fairly good sign. And apparently, a lot
of the folks, uh, from, you know, federal employees who, who were
inside who, you know, know their colleagues and know what they're
thinking and know what they're doing.
[00:37:01] A lot of the people who are taking the buyout offer
are, um, probationary employees, people who were there less than
a year. Right. Who are, you know, fairly long, fairly young, you
know, perhaps in their, you know, twenties or early thirties. And
I'm like, yeah, do I want to, you know, stick around here for a
bit?
[00:37:17] No, maybe I'll just dip out or, um, people, uh, I, as
a police, one that I know of, um, specifically that this is the
case with this, with this person, um, who, uh, is able to retire
Espresso Martini 38 (2.25) 1 5
and, you know, kind of was kind of at the end anyway. And, um,
said, yeah, okay, I'm, I'm just gonna, I'm just gonna walk. I
don't really want to deal with it.
[00:37:38] And that's kind of understandable. And I think if you
take those considerations, I think it's kind of easy to get to
20,000, you know, like a lot of people who would have, who would
have left over the course of this year anyway, right. Got that
email and go, okay, I'll just leave now.
[00:37:53] Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
[00:37:55] Matt Fulton: Um. So we'll, we'll see.
[00:37:56] It also seems like, um, you know, the, the guys at the
top at, at OPM and everything, the office of personnel
management, um, aren't too happy that it's only 20,000.
Apparently there's a lot of like reminder emails and stuff. Don't
forget, like the deadline's coming up. I think it's Friday,
right? The, the eighth or Saturday or something where the
deadline is supposed to be.
[00:38:14] They're like extending it, you know, and sending more
emails like, you know, Hey, this is good. You should do it. Um,
yeah. And apparently the chatter amongst, you know, federal
employees is like, if you have a really good deal for someone,
you don't spam their inbox, you don't spam their, you know, inbox
telling them how great the deal is.
[00:38:28] Um, so what, what happens then when they don't get the
attrition rates, when they don't get the resignations that they
wanted, you know, um, Do they just start, you know, chopping
heads off? I, I don't, I don't know. It's a good
[00:38:43] Chris Carr: question. And, and how does this, yeah,
how does this affect people sort of like pensions staffers?
[00:38:49] Matt Fulton: That's, that's, that's also a good
question. Um, I would sure if I was in their position and, you
know, one of these people that were coming up close to retirement
age and thought, you know, maybe I should just leave now, I
would, I would definitely want to talk to a lawyer and be damn
sure that, you know, um, I'm not going to get screwed in the long
run again, look at Twitter, look at the playbook that happened
with a lot of people who work there.
[00:39:08] It's kind of very disturbing. Um, the one thing I can
say, going back to as far as with the, um, FBI and stuff, uh, you
can fire 5,000 of them if you want, but you will find out.
[00:39:26] Yeah,
[00:39:27] Matt Fulton: we're all going to find out. You will,
you will, you will find out if you do that. And bags are going to
be in your hands.
[00:39:35] Chris Carr: And the FBI have incredibly high standards
for the people they hire to be special agents.
Espresso Martini 38 (2.25) 1 6
[00:39:40] Cause I found that out, um, on the FBI tour not long
ago. And, um, I think if I remember correctly, out of all the
people who apply and go through Quantico, only like 5 percent
actually graduate.
[00:39:53] Matt Fulton: And it's the FBI. It's, it's the, it's a
bunch of. Yeah, white conservative men traditionally, right?
That's kind of the image associated with the FBI.
[00:40:03] That's who's there. That's who does that job Yeah,
yeah, you're you're gonna find out.
[00:40:10] Chris Carr: Yeah, indeed indeed well, no, it's
disturbing because it feels like obviously as a purge gone and it
feels like they Trump is attempting to replace the people who
leave with people who are more ideologically aligned. So, you
know, the FBI, CIA, et cetera, are supposed to be apolitical
organizations.
[00:40:29] And generally, from the people we've spoken to, they
are. Um, and, um, obviously there's all, you know, no individuals
completely apolitical. We've seen examples of people blowing off
steam through like, uh, WhatsApp messages, et cetera. But, um,
you know, generally it doesn't affect the work. Yeah,
[00:40:49] Matt Fulton: just to speak to that, like the people
who work there are still, they're still human beings.
[00:40:53] They're still American citizens. They're allowed to
have thoughts and opinions and they're allowed to on election
day, go and fill out their ballot and vote for whomever they
choose. Right. But When you, when you take one of those jobs,
when you take that oath to uphold and defend the constitution of
the United States, not to any one man, to the constitution of the
United States, you know, you, you have to partition that part of
you, you know, and when you go to work, you do your job and
you're a civil servant and you're there to serve the country, to
defend the country, and you're not there with an R or a D next to
your name.
[00:41:27] It's not how it is. And I think by and large, the
overwhelming majority of people in all of those agencies, it's
exact that they, they, it's a. It is a almost religious belief
for them.
[00:41:38] Chris Carr: Yeah. Yeah, indeed. The only thing I would
add, um, there's a sort of note of irony slightly is, um, you
know, obviously in the buildup to Trump's first election, there
were reports of certain, um, FBI offices being a bit pro-Trump
because typically people from law enforcement tend to swing
Republican.
[00:41:58] And I'd be interested. The New York Field Office.
Yeah. The New York Field Office. And was it Charles McGonigal?
Wasn't
[00:42:04] Matt Fulton: that? Yeah, he was the, he was the, um,
He was head of the counterintelligence division at the New York
Espresso Martini 38 (2.25) 1 7
Field Office. And he was kind of, you know, in bed with some,
with some oligarchs and stuff, but yeah.
[00:42:14] Chris Carr: So I don't know how that, you know, so
it's, I don't know, it just feels slightly ironic that they're
now targeting, um, an agency that, you know, supposedly is filled
with a lot of Republicans, but we'll see, we will see. But yeah.
[00:42:26] Matt Fulton: I think just one, one more point on that
before we move on. Um, I think the law fair that we're going to
see coming up soon is going to be quite epic.
[00:42:36] I don't know. Epic. In which way?
[00:42:38] Mm. In
[00:42:39] Matt Fulton: the, you know, empire strikes back or a
return to the Jedi kind of way. I don't know. But, um, there's,
you know, there's, there's a bunch of lawsuits bubbling up. Um,
the, at the FBI, the Agents Association Mm. Um, yeah. Is, is kind
of getting ready. There's, there's different federal employees
unions that are, there's, there's going to be some serious.
[00:43:01] It's serious litigation and court cases coming up, um,
where those go, how they're, how those outcomes are respected or
not. I don't know.
[00:43:09] Chris Carr: Well, another friend of the podcast, Mark
Zaid, I believe is a very busy man at the moment. Yes, he is.
Because his name has come up a few times in, in reports I've been
reading.
[00:43:18] Um, so I doubt we'll be getting him back on the
podcast anytime soon. No, he's got a job to do so. Uh, yeah, but
no, I'm, I'm, I'm, you know, cause like the FBI, et cetera, have
unions like the police do. And so far they've been kind of quiet,
but I'm assuming it's because they're getting ready to make a
proper announcement.
[00:43:36] I don't think it's just, they're doing nothing. I
think it's just, we haven't heard yet. What's going to be the
response to this, but I can't believe, um, that they're going to
take this lying down. Um, so we will, we will see how this goes,
but honestly, um, this is so disruptive, so dangerous, um,
totally unnecessary and yet it's happening.
[00:43:56] So, uh, yeah, so there we go. Well, let's take a break
and we'll be right back.
[00:44:18] Welcome back everybody. So our next story is about
Russia refusing, well, reportedly refusing to, um, extradite
Assad to Syria. So Matt, you. Brought this one up, I'll hand this
over to you.
[00:44:30] Matt Fulton: Yeah, very interesting story here that
just bubbled up. Um, so yeah, the, the Kremlin is allegedly
refusing to, uh, well, they're, yeah, the Kremlin is refusing to
comment on reports that, uh, Syria's new leader, uh, Ahmed al
Shara has requested Bashar al Assad's extradition.
Espresso Martini 38 (2.25) 1 8
[00:44:45] In exchange for Russia retaining its military bases in
Syria, Russian officials recently visited Damascus for the first
time since Assad's ouster in December, but Kremlin spokesperson
Dmitry Peskov remained tight-lipped on the matter. The new Syrian
government is pressing Moscow to rebuild trust by providing
compensation and aiding in reconstruction efforts.
[00:45:06] Russia had long supported Assad through military
intervention, including heavy bombing campaigns that shifted the
tide of Syria's civil war in his favor, uh, until December. Uh,
however, Russia's position in Syria is now uncertain. Satellite
imagery indicates that Russian forces have been withdrawing
assets to Libya.
[00:45:24] And Syria recently revoked Russia's 49-year lease on
the Tartus naval base, previously a key hub for Moscow's
influence, uh, in the Middle East. What'd you think? We just kind
of, we just sort of alluded to something quite like this last,
last week. Yeah,
[00:45:38] Chris Carr: we did actually. Yeah, yeah, we did. Um,
well, I think from Russia's point of view, despite the benefits
of giving up Assad, um, territorially, the benefits, um, I think
the Russians be very reluctant to do so because they want to
maintain a reputation of reliability and looking after their
allies.
[00:45:57] Um, and despite my negative feelings towards Russia's
political actions, um, both during the Cold War and should we say
the post-Cold War reality we're in now, Russia has generally been
quite good at looking after those who work for them. Um, even
when things get tough, uh, they tend to only turn on people such
as Yevgeny Prigozhin, R.
[00:46:15] I. P. Um, when they turn against the Russian
government and cause embarrassment. Why is it so hot down there?
Yeah, yeah, it probably is still hot down there. Oh my goodness.
Um, so if you think of all the Cold War traitors they looked
after who they easily could have returned in a spy swap or an
extradition request for political advantages, they chose not to
do so.
[00:46:34] Also, the lack of true democracy in Russia leads to a
kind of continuity of government and policies that last for
decades, which are a bit different, obviously, to then the United
States. So, Russia's relationship does tend to be more stable
with their allies than, shall we say, America's sometimes. Um,
And I believe that Putin understands that if he's to persuade
people to work for him and his government's interests, there has
to be a sense of protection that will never be violated.
[00:46:59] Also, you know, we said last week, um, Putin is more
focused on Ukraine at the moment, and he sees that as of greater
strategic importance than the bases in Syria, and possibly
believes in time post a victory in Ukraine, that he can
reestablish those bases. And if the U S continues on its path of
either isolating itself, um, or turning on allies, the new Syrian
Espresso Martini 38 (2.25) 1 9
government in time may even turn back to Russia for support and
trade, whether they turn Assad over or not.
[00:47:27] So. I feel like Russia, I think they've got more to
gain by holding on to him than not. Um, so yeah, uh, those are
really sort of my thoughts on that one.
[00:47:38] Matt Fulton: Yeah. Yeah, I thought this was, uh, uh,
highly interesting, because we, you know, discussed essentially
this exact scenario. Um, on the podcast last week as a way Russia
could theoretically attempt to carry favor, uh, with new
government and retain some influence in Damas in, in, yeah, in,
uh, Damascus, you know, like what's a, what's a lever you could,
you could offer?
[00:47:58] What's a, you know, what, what could you give them to,
you know, grease the wheels a bit? Um, Assad is of course, uh,
the ace of spades on the Syrians’ most wanted list on their deck
of cards, you know, if you remember those from way back in the
day Um, he's he's definitely I think it's safe to say much too
high profile and important to Putin um for for him to be handed
over.
[00:48:21] Um, I don't I don't think that's going to happen At
all. I would eat my shoe if that, if that happened. Um, maybe I
shouldn't have said that on, on recording, but anyway, you never
know with the way this year is going. Uh, it'd be a huge
diplomatic, uh, embarrassment, um, and a hitch of their credit to
hit to the Russian's credibility, as you've said, you know, they,
they usually are pretty good to their, to their own, that the
people who sort of, um, pledge fealty to them in some way, um,
even if they got an airbase and an, and an access to a
Mediterranean port, um, out of the deal.
[00:48:52] However. That doesn't mean that they couldn't offer a
queen or a jack from that deck of cards. Maybe, um, there's quite
a few major regime officials who fled Damascus and are in hiding,
um, somewhere, some are suspected to be probably in, uh, Alawite,
Syrian Alawite villages, um, in the sort of mountain regions and
kind of the Western part of the country, kind of near the coast,
um, some are thought to be in, uh, In, in Beirut, some could be
in Tehran, some could be in Moscow.
[00:49:22] So some of the big ones that are, are kind of in the
wind right now, uh, minister of defense, uh, Ali Mahmoud Abbas,
the interior minister, Mohammed Khalid Al Rahmoun, uh, the chief
of the general staff, um, Abdul Kareem Mahmoud Ibrahim, uh, the
head of the national security office, Kifah Moulhem and the
deputy vice president for security affairs, Ali Mamouk is thought
to be in Beirut under Hezbollah's protection.
[00:49:49] Um, Assad's brother, Maher, Maher al Assad, he was the
commander of the 4th Armored Division, um, utter psychopath, uh,
uh, famously has tortured and murdered people by his own hands
and apparently, uh, Quite a lot of pleasure in, in doing so, um,
he could be in Moscow or Tehran. Um, Maher al Assad might, might
be like, if, if you're to pick one, you know, who would, the
Espresso Martini 38 (2.25) 2 0
Syrians would love to get their hands on that man and hold him
responsible.
[00:50:23] Um, that isn't, that isn't the big guy that isn't
Bashar al Assad. Um, yeah, Maher would be, Maher would be quite,
quite the nice gift, um, for the Syrians, if, if, if you're Putin
and you wanted to sort of, you know, carry favor there and retain
some kind of influence, um, Khmeimim Air Base, uh, their main, it
was their main base, um, in Syria, uh, became a major force
projection platform for Russian operations into, um, Africa,
similar how Ramstein, uh, supports logistics for US forces
throughout the Middle East and Asia, not just, not just Europe.
[00:51:01] So it's, it's very important for them, um, for the
Russians to retain some role there, some presence there, if, if
they can. Um, I, it wouldn't totally shock me if they did. End up
giving, you know, someone over someone who, you know, is, is
known to have personally committed war crimes like himself by his
own hands to, you know, say, Hey, we don't, we don't stand for
that.
[00:51:29] Like we wanted, you know, um, Assad to stay in power.
Like we didn't want him overthrown by like an, you know, unlawful
kind of uprising. They would, they would frame it that way.
Right. But, Hey, we don't support all this, you know, blatant
torture and murder, which we know of course is quite, um, abject
nonsense considering, you know, what they actually did in Syria
and Ukraine and all that, you know, um, but it's possible.
[00:51:53] Yeah, definitely.
[00:51:53] Chris Carr: Definitely. It makes sense to be a bad
time to be a kind of middle manager of the, uh, former Assad
government because, uh, yeah, they would make a perfect gift
really. Um, yeah. Yeah. Yeah, there's one extra note I was just
going to give actually. Um, so the, is it Khmeimim Air Base? Um,
there's a really interesting video I found, um, for two espresso
martinis ago, which I didn't mention in the end, but, um, it's
called combat approved and it kind of gives you a look at life on
the base and its operations from a Russian perspective.
[00:52:23] Um, and, and their role in the Syrian campaign as they
called it. And apparently the best tool for fighting terrorism
is, uh, to quote the video, "the good old air bomb." So I'll put
a link in the show notes to that video. It's well worth it. It's
very jingoistic. It's Russian but mainly in the English language.
[00:52:43] So I'm not quite sure who the audience was for this
video. Probably a Western audience. Um, but it did provide a bit
of, um, insight into what the Russians were up to in, in Syria
and how they kind of supported the regime there. Um, and then,
you know, yeah, uh, the Russians obviously do have, uh, an
interest in the area because they still, you know, have ships and
things that are kind of keeping an eye on things.
[00:53:06] And there was a reported fire on a, on a spy ship
called Kaladin just off the coast of Syria this week. And, um,
Espresso Martini 38 (2.25) 2 1
and it, one of the key points that sort of came out about this
fire is sort of, um, highlighting how Uh, a lot of the Russian
equipment is old, uh, and poorly maintained. And the ship itself,
the Kalinin, um, is actually a 55-year-old ship that was actually
built in Poland when it was occupied by the Soviet Union.
[00:53:34] Um, and it's not the first ship the Russians have
nearly lost to a fire because they had. Uh, the Moskva, which
sank, um, in, uh, after an attack by the Ukrainians, a lot of
naval experts believe that the reason the ship sank was actually
for the lack of fire control on the ship, um, and sort of poor,
you know, just basically poor training on the part of the Russian
naval officers and crew on the ship.
[00:54:00] So the ship probably could have survived the attack
had they put out the fires. So, um, Yeah, there's all sorts of
interesting things going on with Russia at the moment. Um, and
regards to their sort of various fleets, the only, the only thing
that I do know, um, with regards to, to Russian sort of naval
activity, et cetera, at the moment is this, they seem to be
putting a lot of effort towards submarines.
[00:54:21] That seems to be where Putin's focus is.
[00:54:24] Matt Fulton: That's always been the heart and soul of
the, of the Russian Navy, even going back to the Soviets, their,
their, um, Their submarine force was always, always much more
capable. And the resources pumped in there were much greater than
their surface fleet. I mean, that's, um, the submarine force is
also the back, this is the backbone of their nuclear arsenal.
[00:54:44] Um, you know, I mean, that's a key national asset. If
that goes down, they got, they got nothing.
[00:54:50] Chris Carr: Exactly. Exactly. It's kind of their, it's
how they do gunboat diplomacy effectively, but just without a
gunboat, it's just with the sub. Um, so yeah, no, a big part of
that defense there and submarines in many respects, you don't
need that many to be effective.
[00:55:04] Um, they just need to be able to evade being detected.
That's the main thing. Um, and also on top of that, they need to
be able to detect hostile submarines. So yeah, so we can see why,
um, like we were undersea mappings, very important at the moment
of these spy ships. And so, um, yeah, the Khalid and being off
the coast of Syria does not surprise me in the slightest.
[00:55:25] And obviously, um, they were keeping an eye, probably
scooping up electronic data, um, like radio signals, et cetera,
to kind of find out what, um, might be happening to their bases
because their bases at that time were under threat. They've now,
I think they've largely evacuated all the bases and have a very
reduced presence there right now.
[00:55:43] Right.
[00:55:44] Matt Fulton: Well, they had a, uh, essentially, yeah,
they, they. pretty much cut a deal with HTS to, you know, spare
Espresso Martini 38 (2.25) 2 2
their forces there to spare their bases. So I don't, they weren't
under like, I don't think they were ever going to be under threat
of like, uh, commanding them coming under attack or something,
but yeah, it's a serious situation there for them.
[00:56:02] Yeah.
[00:56:03] Chris Carr: Yeah, indeed. Indeed. Yeah. So Matt, you
got picked up this story about Iran might be looking to build a
nuclear weapon again.
[00:56:10] Matt Fulton: Yeah. There's a, um, uh, story that pops
up in the, in the New York Times recently that I'm really kind
of, you know, this is all the headlines like, Whoa, wait, what?
Um, so, uh, new us intelligence suggests that Iranian scientists
are exploring a more rapid but less sophisticated pathway to
building a nuclear weapon.
[00:56:26] Should Tehran decide to cross that threshold, this
approach would allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon. Functional
nuclear device in months rather than years, though the weapon
would be rudimentary and unlikely to be mounted on a ballistic
missile. The intelligence gathered in the final months of the
Biden administration and relayed to Trump's national security
team underscores growing concerns that Iran is seeking a nuclear
deterrent and military setbacks.
[00:56:50] Iran's position is weaker than it has been in years.
Its key proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, have suffered significant
blows and Assad's departure to Moscow has complicated Iran's
regional influence. Uh, an Israeli, uh, counter strike in October
further degraded, uh, Iran's military capabilities, hitting
missile defense systems, and disrupting its ballistic missile
production infrastructure.
[00:57:12] Against this backdrop, Iran's leadership appears
divided. President Massoud Pezeshkian has expressed interest in
renewed diplomatic negotiations. Um, it's not really up to him.
Spoiler. I mean, I could say that I'm up for renewed
negotiations. It doesn't, also doesn't matter. Um, it's, it's not
his decision. Um, I'll be up to the Supreme Leader in the IRGC,
uh, but experts believe he and Iran's foreign ministry are
largely unaware of the Revolutionary Guard's covert nuclear
activities.
[00:57:40] Despite having enough, uh, enriched uranium to produce
multiple bombs, Iran still faces technical challenges in
weaponizing its nuclear material. Historically, U.S. And Israeli
intelligence have estimated that it would take at least a year.
to develop a deployable warhead, but the new assessment suggests
Iran may opt for a crude device possibly based on blueprints from
Pakistani scientist A.
[00:58:01] Q. Khan. While such a weapon would not be an immediate
offensive threat, it could serve as a deterrent, potentially
altering strategic calculations in Washington. Jerusalem and
beyond, Chris, what do you think of this one?
Espresso Martini 38 (2.25) 2 3
[00:58:13] Chris Carr: Yeah, um, I think I've said this before,
I, I, I'm of the opinion that the Iranian regime is much more
fragile than it appears, and this could explain their drive to
develop a nuclear weapon, which they might see as essential for
preventing an attack by Israel, the US.
[00:58:28] Um, a nuclear Iran. Sorry, a nuclear-armed Iran could
be a direct threat to Israel, of course, but what's worse is it
could set off a kind of nuclear arms race in the Middle East, and
I, I think Sunni countries such as Saudi Arabia would not
tolerate a Shia Iran having such a devastating weapon in their
arsenal, especially if they have nothing to match it, so that
could be, I think that's one of the big fears at the moment is
this sort of, um, nuclear arms race kicking off in the Middle
East, which I think most administrations have been trying to
prevent, um, it's been reported that President Trump has said he
wants a verified nuclear peace agreement with Iran, and he's
denied that he wants to blow Iran to smithereens.
[00:59:07] Describing such reports is greatly exaggerated, but we
will see. Um, could this mean we see, uh, some blusters and
threats to Iran before negotiations, or will, America with Israel
get involved in some joint airstrikes and other measures to
target Iran's nuclear ambitions. I'm not sure at this point. Um,
Trump appears to like to present himself as this sort of wild
card.
[00:59:31] He makes a lot of statements. Some appear and some of
those do appear to upset allies whilst then, and then he kind of
settles on a, uh, a path of action and, and, um, You know, we've
seen such statements about how we'd like to, uh, like the U.S. to
take over Gaza, which are now kind of being walked back, but
since then, those comments have kind of inflamed anti-American
sentiments and caused a lot of concern with strategic allies, um,
so I don't know whether the U.
[00:59:59] S. would consider the U.S. To you know, what, where
the U.S. sort of stands with Iran at the moment. But I know it's
been a very traditional kind of, um, talking point in Republican
circles that they don't want a nuclear-armed Iran. And I think
that the U.S. Would be possibly willing to, um, you know, help
Israel and take some action, um, against, you know, strategic
sites and things with airstrikes.
[01:00:22] And, you know, we've already talked a little bit about
how they have worked with Israel on a lot of, um, a lot of these
things. So I don't know, only time will tell really on, on this
issue with what's going to happen next. I don't know.
[01:00:34] Matt Fulton: Yeah. Let me, um, uh, give us some
perspective here and take us back a few years and kind of walk us
back up to the moment that we're in.
[01:00:41] So this is, Which is, side note, this is a really
interesting story for me because the, like, uh, crux of my Active
Measures series, the first book in the series, which has been out
for many years, too many years, and been working on the second
Espresso Martini 38 (2.25) 2 4
one for way too long, but they're very big, complicated books,
um, the crux is, uh, a, um, in the first chapter, a, uh, um, A
parallel covert Iranian nuclear weapons program is discovered and
the whole point of it is they're sort of making a smaller, cruder
nuclear weapon, um, that they could do much faster and much
quieter.
[01:01:15] So this was, you know, this is kind of familiar, uh,
ground for me. So it, it, it, the estimate right now is. That it
would take only days for Iran to enrich its uranium stockpile up
to and above 90%, right? Which is the threshold needed for use in
a bomb. However, it's estimated that it'd take another year To 18
months to marry that physio material with a functioning warhead,
right?
[01:01:47] The uses it as a weapon. Um, Iran would be attacked
within that, within that window. Um, they couldn't hide that push
to 90 percent uh, enrichment. The only thing that that would mean
is that they are actively proceeding ahead with a weapon and they
would be attacked. Um, that's just a fact. Uh, the the through
line though, on the question of Iran's intent for its nuclear
program has largely remained constant for like 20 years, going
back to 2003.
[01:02:19] And this was confirmed essentially in 2018, um, when
Mossad broke into this warehouse and stole like a hundred
thousand documents on Iran's nuclear program. And it like
demonstrated like, yes, they did. This is exactly what they were
doing the whole time. Right. Okay. So. In 2003, um, after the
invasion of Iraq, uh, the Supreme Leader, um, Ayatollah Khamenei,
um, shelved the nuclear weapons program side of, uh, of Iran's
nuclear program.
[01:02:50] He wanted to move ahead with the civilian power side,
but the weapons program was, um, uh, shelved. So since that time,
the Supreme Leader hasn't. ordered the production of a bomb, but
he would like to keep the option open and thus needs to maintain
the industrial base, the scientific and engineering expertise,
uh, and a usable stockpile of fizzle material, which is, you
know, uh, highly enriched, um, uranium or weapons-grade, uh,
plutonium.
[01:03:20] Um, so after 2013, much of that work was shifted to
studying and developing the other components that go into a bomb.
Um, like the conventional, uh, explosive lenses that are shaped
around, uh, the plutonium core and implosion-type nuclear weapon.
Um, so, uh, that was like, um, fat man. The bomb that was dropped
on Nagasaki was an implosion-type design.
[01:03:44] Uh, the, the, the Trinity gadget was an implosion-type
design. And if anyone's seen, um, Oppenheimer, fantastic movie,
if you haven't go see it. Um, there's a scene where you can see
them like fitting in these explosive lenses, these explosive
lenses onto the Trinity gadget at Los Alamos. Um, ahead of the,
ahead of the test.
Espresso Martini 38 (2.25) 2 5
[01:04:02] Um, That step is key because if there's even the
slightest fault in the fabrication or, or placement of just one
of these lenses, or even if the millisecond that they all fire is
just a little bit off, um, you don't get a supercritical mass,
uh, there's, there's no fission, the bomb's a dud, and you've
wasted, you know, years of incredibly valuable, um, plutonium,
and that was a, a serious concern during the Manhattan Project
when they were gearing up for, for, for Trinity, like if this
thing fails to get a supercritical mass, you know, we've just
wasted years of all this plutonium production, um, you know, like
we're basically back at square one.
[01:04:41] If this goes wrong, like, right, those, those were the
stakes there. Um, the same. So the same equipment and technical
know-how needed to produce those explosive lenses, um, which have
to be milled to such like exact precision and specification can
be used in the production of things like nanodiamonds or even
like eyeglasses more simply.
[01:05:03] Right. Um, it isn't like the lenses in an eyeglass in,
in, in, in eyeglasses have to be, you know, very kind of like
specific to meet the prescription and everything. Right. Um, so
you can still. Make progress in that area without actively
developing a bomb and also give you a degree of, um, deniability.
Uh, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, uh, before Mossad assassinated him in
2020, uh, with that, you know, remotely operated, um, machine
gun.
[01:05:31] Oh yeah, it's very Breaking Bad, wasn't it? Yeah. Uh,
so he was a professor, uh, uh, Imam Hussein University, um, in
Tehran. He also led the Organization for Defensive Innovation and
Research, which is essentially like Iran's DARPA. Um, he was
supposed to be their Robert Oppenheimer, um, and he was working
on stuff like that in that period between 2003 and, and his death
in 2020 for the most part.
[01:05:54] Um, so he was, he was doing his research. He was, you
know, still kind of working on stuff. That could be used for a
bomb, but not actually building a bomb. He was waiting for the
Supreme Leader to call and say, um, Hey, it's time. So to answer
the question there about what we're seeing right now, reading
this report in the times, um, just, you know, looking at what's
there, that's all I got to go on right now.
[01:06:18] Um. Thank you. This honestly doesn't seem like cause
for great alarm. I know like the headline is like, Iran's pushing
to build a new crude, small nuclear weapon. You know, they're
going to do it. I don't, I don't
[01:06:29] Chris Carr: say that for years.
[01:06:30] Matt Fulton: They've been saying that for 20 years.
It. Exactly. Um, that's not to brush it off, you know, it's not
to suggest that it's a, it's a serious thing that we need to
guard against and we need to be kind of proactive in, in, in
monitoring it.
Espresso Martini 38 (2.25) 2 6
[01:06:42] But, um, there's been a lot of, um, moments of alarm
that, you know, in all that time, like I said, that constant
through line has stayed the same. They want the option to build a
bomb. They have not made the decision to build one, right? That's
always been like that since 2003. Um. Absolutely. Absolutely. So
the sourcing in the article is sort of fuzzy.
[01:07:04] Um, I do find it a little bit sus that this drops
right when Bibi comes to visit Trump. Um, a lot of folks in
Israel are saying, now's our, as you kind of alluded to, um, and
now's our time to finish off. The nuclear program, and they're
technically even objectively correct. I, I got to say, um, Iran's
ability to respond to such an attack is a shadow of what it would
have been 18 months ago.
[01:07:30] Um, there aren't any details on what this, Does this
crude hastily assembled bomb, um, would, would use. And that's
sort of another interesting open question for me that I would
really like to know about more. I mentioned, you know, they may
perhaps use designs they got from, um, AQ Khan, you know, the
Pakistani nuclear scientists who operated like a black market for
nuclear materials, um, in the early, uh, 2000s.
[01:07:59] That's somewhat to me points to a. Implosion type
weapon. It's just sort of my, my, my gut. Um, if, if they are
using an AQ Khan uh, design, you know, perhaps, but again,
totally speculating there. The article doesn't, the article
doesn't say, um, but this isn't an area where you want to cut
corners either, or again, you're going to get a dud or at least
you're going to irradiate all of your scientists and engineers,
um, you don't want to do that.
[01:08:26] They're really valuable. They're almost as much,
they're almost as valuable as a fizzle material. Um, it honestly
seems like. Intelligence indicated, uh, these discussions are
happening in Tehran right now, right? Perhaps like a SIGINT
intercept or something, you know, like they're, they're talking
about this.
[01:08:44] Um, they're asking questions on whether such a thing
is technically feasible for them. And it may be, uh, but it
wouldn't be of much strategic value or dig themselves, I think,
out of the hole that they've, that they're in now after Hezbollah
and Assad's defeat. So, um, Let's say, you know, they do slap
together a bomb of a couple kiloton yield, right?
[01:09:06] So it's fairly small boom for a nuke, but it's
physically too large to place atop a ballistic missile. So how do
you deploy it? Um, Iran has no strategic bombers. You can put it,
uh, in the back of a Yeah, you could put it in a cargo plane and
roll it down the back of a ramp, but you're not getting it
anywhere near Tel Aviv, right?
[01:09:26] So you have to then smuggle it to your target if you
do intend to use it, right? Which also, again, is a huge
assumption, right? That they would build it and then want to use
it, right? That's just, just, you know. Make saying that for
Espresso Martini 38 (2.25) 2 7
conversation right conversation's sake like let's say they build
this thing and they want to use it How do you get it to target?
[01:09:43] You don't have a missile to put it on you can't
deliver it by aircraft You have to smuggle it in illicitly
somehow but keep in mind The package that this bomb is in is
still pretty big because it's too big to put on a missile, right?
um So in this whole time then that you're trying to smuggle it to
your target, it's still bleeding gamma rays and neutron
emissions, and they can shield that with lead or tungsten, but I
wouldn't want to bet that we haven't developed classified
countermeasures to detect that stuff.
[01:10:17] Chris Carr: Got the nuke sniffer, haven't you? Right.
[01:10:19] Matt Fulton: Um, yeah, chances are good. I think that
it would be detected and interdicted and then they're really
screwed. So, and then let's also say, as the time suggests that
they opt to test fire one in the desert as a demonstration,
right. And then, uh, announce that they're a nuclear power still
now they're, they're still screwed.
[01:10:41] Um, Now they're an international pariah, uh, and they
get obliterated by Israel and or the U.S., the U.K., France, the
Gulf Arabs, probably, um, now they're not a nuclear power anymore
and the regime's gone, um, so again, Absent further evidence, I
think these are discussions that are certainly happening in
Tehran, um, options that are being further explored in theory,
uh, it'd be strange for them not to, honestly, to look into
exploring this after the year that they just had, um, it's like,
you know, what do we, what do we do?
[01:11:12] Okay, can we build a bomb? How do we build a bomb
fast? Okay, it's got to be crude. Okay, we could technically
build a small crude nuclear weapon, but then what do we do with
it? Right? Like, it doesn't, It doesn't get you anything, you
know, um, I remember having this conversation with Phillip Smyth
in one of our in one of our episodes a few months back like a
nuclear weapon doesn't allow you to project force on the ground
into Syria, you know, it doesn't allow you to rearm Hezbollah Um,
it doesn't answer those questions for them.
[01:11:47] Uh, I so Uh, yeah, at, at the end of the day, I don't
think it's likely that they're about to race toward a bomb, uh,
because given the circumstances, I don't see what they gained
from it in doing, in doing it in this, in this manner. So that's
a very long-winded way to say, calm down.
[01:12:05] Chris Carr: I have a dumb question because I'm not,
I'm not totally up on nuclear missiles and bombs.
[01:12:10] It's sort of my, um, weak point at this point. But,
um, you made the whole thing about dirty bombs, where basically
you have a collection of radioactive material that you you know,
attached to an explosive and set it off. Is there anything
stopping them from shoving a load of radioactive material into a
conventional, or a number of conventional rockets, uh, with the
Espresso Martini 38 (2.25) 2 8
intention of them being shot down or crashed just so they spread
radioactive material across Israel, could that happen?
[01:12:39] Matt Fulton: Uh, I want to say, no, there isn't
anything stopping them from doing that. I mean, could you take,
could you take some low, I mean, lower-enriched uranium is still
radioactive. You know, you can still use that in kind of a
radiological dispersal device, a dirty bomb, as you want to call
it that. Um, yeah. Could you put that into a payload of a, of a
missile, you know, uh, Marriott to the conventional HE explosives
or take out the HE explosives and just put in, um, any kind of
radioactive material.
[01:13:11] Yeah, they could do that now, it would still end in
their destruction.
[01:13:15] Chris Carr: Oh yeah, totally, totally. I mean, if they
felt that this was a, you know, I don't know, whatever scenario
they would decide to do this. But I remember when, um, the rocket
attacks that happened last year. I remember seeing a picture of a
man posing next to one of these rockets.
[01:13:29] And I thought, well, It could have had something
biological or nuclear in it for all he knew at that point. Um, I
wouldn't stand next to a down recently downed rocket from Iran to
at least somebody had checked it out to check it was safe. But
yeah.
[01:13:42] Matt Fulton: The other thing to consider then in that
scenario is right.
[01:13:45] So. You don't have, if you're Iran, you don't have a
ton of fissile material anyway, you have enough to produce a
couple bombs, but you don't have tons of it to just, you know,
lob off into the atmosphere and it lands wherever it lands,
right? It's still pretty valuable material. If you're going to,
if you were going to use it, again, for sake of conversation, if
you were going to use it in, as a kind of makeshift dirty bomb,
You would want to be pretty damn sure that it's going to hit the
target that you wanted to hit, right?
[01:14:14] So look at the exchange of missiles back and forth
between Iran and Israel over the last year, right? They fired off
hundreds. Thousands of even even of missiles and drones at best a
couple a handful made it to Israel right, so if you have your
precious national asset stockpile of highly enriched uranium that
you've spent billions of dollars and all kinds of scientific
effort You know decades.
[01:14:45] Um amassing this material are you going to put it?
Into a missile and launch it up into the atmosphere for it to
probably get shot down and land in Iraq or Jordan or something
[01:14:59] and
[01:15:00] not even hit Israel. Like, what do you gain from that?
[01:15:02] Chris Carr: Yeah.
Espresso Martini 38 (2.25) 2 9
[01:15:02] Matt Fulton: You're going to get destroyed anyway
because you just launched a dirty bomb that, you know, that
landed in Jordan.
[01:15:10] Chris Carr: Either way, it never ends well for Iran.
[01:15:12] Matt Fulton: No. That's the, that's the thing here.
Like, I mean, yeah, they technically could do this, but I don't
know that that's, I don't see how that's an answer to their
problem. So I don't know why they would do it.
[01:15:21] Chris Carr: No, hence why they have the proxy forces
to do stuff instead.
[01:15:24] Matt Fulton: Exactly. The proxy forces, honestly, and
this is a point that, you know, Philip and I were kind of making,
the proxy forces are arguably more valuable for their ability to
project force across the Middle East than a nuclear bomb would
be. Makes a lot of sense. So. That's what I think about that.
[01:15:38] Chris Carr: Well, thank you for that, Matt.
[01:15:39] I think, yeah, it's a lot of food for thought with
Iran. I think it's no, there's no need to press the panic button
just yet. Uh, no doubt President Trump be pressing the Diet Coke
button instead. Um, but, uh, but there we go. So we will see what
happens over the next few weeks with regards to, um, US and
Israel action on Iran.
[01:16:00] But, uh, you know, yeah, I just hope, uh, calm heads
prevail, not hot heads, because obviously there's been a lot of,
um, Republicans and the, uh, political right in Israel have been
very vocal against Iran. Um, and some of them have been a very
keen for military action to topple the regime. And I think that
would be a very dangerous course.
[01:16:21] And I don't think there's any real need for it because
it doesn't appear like the nuclear situation is as bad as maybe
some people might believe. So, yeah.
[01:16:30] Matt Fulton: Hey, can I just say one more thing to
that point about, I mean, I'm sure there's people listening here
saying, okay, well, does that mean Trump's going to, you know,
bomb Iran now or something?
[01:16:37] Or is he going to let Bibi do it or whatever? I'm not
going to pretend to know what goes on in that man's head for a
minute to minute, you know, or what he definitely will or won't
do. I have no idea. Right.
[01:16:51] Chris Carr: And I think he likes it that way too.
[01:16:52] Matt Fulton: He definitely does. That's his madman
theory thing that he does.
[01:16:55] Um, I think his instinct and you can see this, right?
His underlying instinct is to avoid military, big military
conflict, especially that involves large committed numbers of us
troops because it makes for bad television. Americans don't like
Espresso Martini 38 (2.25) 3 0
to see bad, scary stuff on their TV screens. We saw that all last
year.
[01:17:21] Yeah. Right. Like, I just don't want to see it. Like,
this is upsetting me. I don't want to see it. He knows that.
Right. So he's, he's hesitant to create a situation that would
produce those images. Right. Now, again, I'm sure there's people
saying, screaming, what about him saying he were just going to
take Gaza?
[01:17:36] Chris Carr: Well, yeah. You know, or the Panama
[01:17:37] Matt Fulton: Canal or something or Greenland or
whatever.
[01:17:39] Chris Carr: Greenland. Canada.
[01:17:42] Matt Fulton: Yes. It's been a busy,
[01:17:43] Chris Carr: busy three weeks.
[01:17:44] Matt Fulton: Correct. Correct. I agree. The
ideological, the ideological consistency is not there. And, and
the sheer proposal of wanting to do those things, even if it's
just, you know, out of his head randomly, right.
[01:17:59] It's still very diplomatically damaging and not good
and bad. And maybe we'll talk more about that next week. He does
not see the U.S. Taking Gaza. Or the Panama Canal or Greenland as
a war. He thinks that like, they're just going to give it to us
because we're so awesome. And he's going to yell at them enough
until they just do it.
[01:18:19] He doesn't think it would involve a war to do such a
thing, right? Taking out Iran's nuclear program would involve at
least some level of serious military action. Oh yeah. I think
it's an important thing to like, you know, if you must, I know
it's not anywhere near Halloween. If you must put yourself in his
head.
[01:18:36] He does not see taking Gaza as a war, right? And
that's. Where I think that, you know, blatant, yes, hypocrisy,
ideological disconnect, stupidity, even perhaps you could say
that's real and that's where that comes from, but he does not see
it as a war and I think that's, to him, there's, that's
completely ideologically consistent.
[01:19:00] Chris Carr: Yeah. Yeah, indeed. Indeed. It's just his
[01:19:02] Matt Fulton: psychology.
[01:19:03] Chris Carr: Yeah, yeah, indeed. Yeah. And, uh, no,
we'll, we'll, we'll, we'll may talk about Gaza next week, because
at the moment, I mean, the White House have walked back the
comments now, but, um, so I don't know really what's going on
with it. He, cause he brought it twice.
[01:19:17] He's mentioned it now. Um, and I, and I was hesitant
to, to do a piece on it today because it's just frankly, at the
moment with regards to Trump, there's a lot of things being said,
Espresso Martini 38 (2.25) 3 1
but you've got to match it up with then action, because I think
if you. React to everything he says. I mean, we'll probably be on
air 24 seven.
[01:19:36] Matt Fulton: I think there is something worth talking
about it in terms of like the diplomatic distraction and just
kind of like the chaos and uncertainty of the president of the
United States standing at the white house saying we're just going
to take Gaza and like Everyone rightfully because the president
said it's like what do you mean?
[01:19:50] You're going to take Gaza? Yeah, you know He's pissed
off
[01:19:53] Chris Carr: every Arab ally now, he's pissed, he's
caused concern for NATO and it might even lead to an attack on an
American embassy in the Middle East somewhere. We could have
another Benghazi next week for crying out loud. I'll say one
thing
[01:20:06] Matt Fulton: though, um, if you do plan on firing
hundreds or even thousands of FBI agents, um, occupying Gaza is
not something that you want to do.
[01:20:14] Just, just pro tip there.
[01:20:17] Chris Carr: That's a very good pro tip, yeah. Yeah,
indeed. Indeed. Yeah. No, because as we've seen over the last
year, you know, um, anything, you know, Israel and, um, Hamas's
war has sparked so much emotion. So if America thinks that, oh
yeah, we're going to just take Gaza or if Trump thinks, I'm not
going to say America, if Trump thinks that we're going to just
walk in and take Gaza and there'll be no consequence, I think you
haven't, he hasn't been paying attention for the last year.
[01:20:43] So, uh, yeah, it'd be very stupid to do it. Um, and I,
you know, I think most of America's allies have sort of expressed
something on those terms. Um, as politely as they can about
upsetting Trump and alienating him, because they know that that's
bad for them too. But, uh, yeah, it doesn't, it doesn't inspire
confidence is the polite way to put it,
[01:21:06] Matt Fulton: it most certainly does not.
[01:21:08] Chris Carr: So I think on that note, we'll hold and
we'll wrap up for today. So thank you everybody for listening. So
a few things, um, first of all, uh, so we've got an episode
coming up on the 22nd of February. So that'd be our last episode
in February. So, um, please send in. Please email in any
questions you have that you'd like us to, uh, read out and, and
comment on, or if there are any topics that you want to suggest
that we could look at, if you do send us a topic, please send a
link with it.
[01:21:38] Um, so we can sort of see where you're coming from,
um, or if there are any kind of comments and anything that we've
talked about in the last few episodes that you'd like to air.
We'll happily read them out. So just send us some grievances.
Espresso Martini 38 (2.25) 3 2
Well, yeah, there's some grievances too. We can hear those too.
So yeah, send us an email at secrets and spies podcast at gmail.
[01:21:57] com in your email. Obviously include the question
topic or comments. Uh, and again, as I say, with a topic, if you
want us to look into it, please send a link with it so we can
have a look. Uh, also please add in that email, how you'd like us
to read out your name. Um, and like where you are. Uh, and if you
want to use a fake name, that's absolutely fine.
[01:22:21] Um, but obviously we'd prefer it if you're as honest
as you can be, but we could just use the first name up to you how
you want to do that. But just let us know, um, and then we'll
read it out accordingly. Um, also don't forget to follow us on
social media. We are on blue sky. That's where we are these days.
[01:22:37] Mainly. Um, Yeah, so we're just at Blue Sky, you know,
so it's the, I'm not going to read that out, but if you just go
to Secrets and Spies, uh, if you type in Secrets and Spies into
Blue Sky, you'll find us, and there's links in the show notes.
We're also on Instagram at Secrets and Spies, Facebook, and
Spoutable.
[01:22:53] We've been having some comments on Facebook actually
lately. I, I generally, um, forgive me, I'm just, Not the biggest
Facebook fan, but we've been getting some comments here and
there. So I've been doing my best when I spot them to, to respond
to those. So thank you for those comments for those who do follow
us on Facebook.
[01:23:08] And I apologize for it being neglected. Um, you can
also follow myself and Matt on Bluesky. We both have our own
personal accounts that link to there. If you want to experience
this podcast ad free, please go to Patreon. com forward slash
secrets and spies, and you can get ad free versions of these
episodes.
[01:23:25] Also. I don't know if many people know this, because
we've only ever had a very small number of sales, but we do have
a Red Bubble merchandise store. Um, there's also a link in the
show notes. And you can get t shirts, cups, uh, water bottles.
For some reason we sold a few water bottles. Um, even I don't
have a Secrets and Spies water bottle, but water bottle?
[01:23:45] I didn't know we had water bottles. Yeah, we have
water bottles. Um, yeah, there's tote bags. There's one tote bag
in the Middle East. I can tell you that now. Um, so somebody out
there is walking around with secrets and spies back. But, uh, but
there we go. There's
[01:24:00] Matt Fulton: a copy of my novel. This is courtesy of
Phillip Smyth.
[01:24:03] There's a copy of my novel that was, uh, at least for
a while. I don't know if it still is, was in the, um, office of
the commander of the Bahrain Police Force, I think. Oh,
[01:24:12] wow. That's cool. Yeah, that's cool. Yeah. Okay.
Espresso Martini 38 (2.25) 3 3
[01:24:15] Chris Carr: Yeah. It's always fun. Yeah. Yeah. It's
always interesting that so yeah, no, that's really cool.
[01:24:20] So, uh, no, good, good, good. So yeah. So, um, please.
And finally, obviously if you don't want to, um, you know, do
patron by merchandise, et cetera, that's absolutely fine. What I
do ask. Please share this episode. If you find value in the
podcast, please share it because the more people you share it to,
um, the more people will come across this podcast.
[01:24:41] And one last thing earlier this week, I got an email
from the founder of FeedSpot and Secrets and Spies is currently
at number three in the top 10 spy podcasts on the FeedSpot
website. That's cool. It's very cool. So we've been on this. Uh,
chart before, but we've usually be in like the after, you know,
beyond 10, like at 15, 20, but ahead of us is spy cast at number
one, well-earned SpyCast is definitely the number one sort of spy
podcast out there.
[01:25:11] And then number two is our friends at Spy Hards, which
is the movie podcast. And I've been on there a couple of times as
well as a guest, but then here we are at number three. Um, and
I'm really pleased with that. Um, It's really nice to be in the
chart and to be, should we say the, yeah, the, the only other
factual podcast below spy, uh, spy cast, I was like, wow, that's
really, you know, puts us in a very interesting place, but a
great honor.
[01:25:37] So thank you very much to feed spot for including us
in your chart there. I have no idea how they, um, kind of, uh,
compute it, et cetera, and figure out. How that works, but but
um, yeah, I'm honored I'm honored. So thank you very much for
that Uh, so that is us done for this week. So thank you again
everybody for listening I hope you all have a wonderful weekend
and we will catch you next week.
[01:26:02] Take care.
[01:26:03] Matt Fulton: Bye, everybody.
[01:26:04] Chris Carr: Bye for now.